Large Threats Research Articles

Populations, conservation status and distribution modelling of the rare and narrow endemic Rhododendron frey-wysslingii (Ericaceae)

Northern Gayo Plateau, Sumatra, is home to at least five Sumatran endemic Ericaceae where large threats come from the expansion of agricultural-related activities and infrastructure development. Rhododendron frey-wysslingii (Ericaceae) which is a northern Gayo Plateau endemic was just recently rediscovered but many parts of its geographical ranges are under severe disturbance. In the present study, we reported results of population and conservation study of the species known only from four populations in the northern Gayo Plateau. The population of this species shows a J-shape pattern showing a good regeneration capacity in the wild. However, no population is known to occur in nationally protected areas. And, due to the narrow geographic ranges and threats from habitat loss from expansions of coffee and other agricultural area as well as the presence of roads and their associated activities, the species is proposed here as Endangered (EN) according to the IUCN Red List. Living plant for ex-situ conservation purposes was collected and maintained. Besides that, a species distribution modeling was performed and showed that there are several potential habitats of the species outside the currently known ranges where no plant has been recorded, including Mount Hulumasen, Mount Peuet Sagoe, Mount Leuser, and Mount Bendahara, from an elevation above 1000 m asl. The findings add to the importance of the northern Gayo Plateau as home to narrow endemic species. Future efforts are needed for the species that include further survey in potential but unexplored habitats and implementation of in-situ conservation involving relevant stakeholders.

Extractive Politics, Redistribution, and War: On the Rationality of Kleptocratic Mismanagement

ABSTRACT We study a model on the impact of vertical inequality on autocrats’ exploitation of societal wealth and their intended risk of war. Using a general equilibrium model, we demonstrate that autocrats are willing to use the military for redistribution when it increases their share of the rents. They are also willing to harm the economy to deter external threats and are most powerful for extreme un-/equal distributions. These findings offer interesting interpretations. Firstly, even in the absence of external military threats, some autocrats maintain large armies for redistribution, depending on the level of inequality. Secondly, not too low inequality can benefit ordinary citizens. Thirdly, kleptocratic mismanagement is not necessarily an unintended side effect of shameless self-enrichment, but rather a rationally chosen governance to deter too large military threats. This policy could prevent hostilities, but ruins the economy, destroying a society’s wealth. The latter causes ordinary citizens to favor war since the autocrat would then lose their grip at home. These results help to explain why some autocrats maintain excessively large armies, while others stifle their economies, and yet others are drawn into wars.

The effect of climate change threat on public attitudes towards ethnic and religious minorities and climate refugees

How does climate change threat affect attitudes towards ethnic and religious minorities and climate change refugees? We show that threatening climate change can have deep psychological effects even among social majority groups in relatively prosperous and peaceful societies. Using three survey experiments with self-identified White British participants ( N = 616, N = 587, and N = 535), we demonstrate that social majority members who are exposed to threatening information about climate change (vs. neutral information) and, at the same time, feel little national efficacy over climate change, evaluate more negatively certain ethnic and religious minorities, especially Muslims and Pakistanis. We found the same trend in the evaluation of climate refugees, although it reached statistical significance only in one of the experiments. We explain these reactions as pertaining to groups that are perceived as threatening the salient ingroup and its collective agency. Our research significantly contributes to the literature on the social and political implications of (climate change) threat, especially by focusing on boundary conditions, namely the perception of collective control in case of complex and large threats.

Modern distributed production (manufacturing) as an important part of the future Ukrainian nationally rooted industry

The purpose of this paper is to propose a variant for the development of a part of the national industry, which would be free from the problems of large investments and threats of unprofitability against the background of innovations. Before the full-scale war, which began in 2022, Ukrainian industry was an offspring and a powerful part of the Soviet heavy industry, mainly of the third technological order. Now, the enterprises that were powerful generators of the national economy GDP are to a greater extent located in the temporarily occupied or front-line territory. Industrial regions suffered significant damage to the production base and infrastructure facilities. The post-war restoration of the domestic industry requires large capital investments, which the national economy is not capable of. In addition, there is a limitation on the duration of investment projects due to the rapid development of modern technologies. According to experts, any project whose implementation exceeds 3 years is risky. In addition, there is a Marxian tendency of the rate of profit to decrease, due to a change in the capital structure, in particular, a decrease in labor expenses. Modern processes of mechanization of production, increase of innovative components (computerization, Internet of things, digitalization, etc.) increase the risks of unprofitability. The authors give an example of the closure of coal mining enterprises in European countries against the background of scientific and technical progress. At the same time, based on the analysis of literary sources, the trend of the spread of the DIY 4.0 phenomenon (from Do It Yourself) was revealed – the use of the most modern technological elements for the manufacture of products designed to meet the manufacturers' own needs. Especially in the USA, the Maker Movement, which is a new culture of industrial activity, is developing. The article substantiates that the technological base of DIY 4.0 and the culture of the Maker Movement are the foundation of the new distributed manufacturing, free from the "curse" of mass investment and unprofitable innovation. It is distributed manufacturing that is able to fundamentally change the quality picture and structure of industry, to ensure the national rooting of industrial production.

Carrion ecology in inland aquatic ecosystems: a systematic review.

Carrion ecology, i.e. the decomposition and recycling of dead animals, has traditionally been neglected as a key process in ecosystem functioning. Similarly, despite the large threats that inland aquatic ecosystems (hereafter, aquatic ecosystems) face, the scientific literature is still largely biased towards terrestrial ecosystems. However, there has been an increasing number of studies on carrion ecology in aquatic ecosystems in the last two decades, highlighting their key role in nutrient recirculation and disease control. Thus, a global assessment of the ecological role of scavengers and carrion in aquatic ecosystems is timely. Here, we systematically reviewed scientific articles on carrion ecology in aquatic ecosystems to describe current knowledge, identify research gaps, and promote future studies that will deepen our understanding in this field. We found 206 relevant studies, which were highly biased towards North America, especially in lotic ecosystems, covering short time periods, and overlooking seasonality, a crucial factor in scavenging dynamics. Despite the low number of studies on scavenger assemblages, we recorded 55 orders of invertebrates from 179 families, with Diptera and Coleoptera being the most frequent orders. For vertebrates, we recorded 114 species from 40 families, with birds and mammals being the most common. Our results emphasise the significance of scavengers in stabilising food webs and facilitating nutrient cycling within aquatic ecosystems. Studies were strongly biased towards the assessment of the ecosystem effects of carrion, particularly of salmon carcasses in North America. The second most common research topic was the foraging ecology of vertebrates, which was mostly evaluated through sporadic observations of carrion in the diet. Articles assessing scavenger assemblages were scarce, and only a limited number of these studies evaluated carrion consumption patterns, which serve as a proxy for the role of scavengers in the ecosystem. The ecological functions performed by carrion and scavengers in aquatic ecosystems were diverse. The main ecological functions were carrion as food source and the role of scavengers in nutrient cycling, which appeared in 52.4% (N = 108) and 46.1% (N = 95) of publications, respectively. Ecosystem threats associated with carrion ecology were also identified, the most common being water eutrophication and carrion as source of pathogens (2.4%; N = 5 each). Regarding the effects of carrion on ecosystems, we found studies spanning all ecosystem components (N = 85), from soil or the water column to terrestrial vertebrates, with a particular focus on aquatic invertebrates and fish. Most of these articles found positive effects of carrion on ecosystems (e.g. higher species richness, abundance or fitness; 84.7%; N = 72), while a minority found negative effects, changes in community composition, or even no effects. Enhancing our understanding of scavengers and carrion in aquatic ecosystems is crucial to assessing their current and future roles amidst global change, mainly for water-land nutrient transport, due to changes in the amount and speed of nutrient movement, and for disease control and impact mitigation, due to the predicted increase in occurrence and magnitude of mortality events in aquatic ecosystems.

Host size matters for reproduction: Evolution of spawning preference and female reproductive phenotypes in mussel-symbiotic freshwater bitterling fishes.

Bitterling fishes evolve an idiosyncratic symbiosis with freshwater mussels, in which they are obligated to spawn in the gills of mussels for reproduction. In recent years, freshwater mussel populations have been drastically diminishing, due to accelerating anthropogenic impacts, which can be large threats to the risk of bitterling's extinction cascade (i.e. 'coextinction'). The host mussel size may be an important factor driving the adaptation and evolution of bitterling's reproductive phenotypes. Here we examined the host size preference and morphological adaptation of female bitterling to the host size from 17 localities at the Han River in Korea. Using our developed molecular-based species identification for bitterling's eggs/larvae inside the mussels, we further determined the spawning patterns of seven bitterling species. Mean length of spawned mussels (N = 453) was significantly larger than that of unspawned mussels (N = 1814), suggesting that bitterling prefers to use larger hosts as a spawning ground. Spawning probability was clearly greater as mussel size increases. Results of our reciprocal transplant experiments do provide some evidence supporting the 'bitterling's larger host preference' hypothesis. Interspecific competition appeared to be intense as two fish species often spawned eggs in the same mussel individuals simultaneously. Longer ovipositor and more elongated egg may evolve in females of Tanakia signifer in response to larger host environments. The observed bitterling's spawning preference for large-sized mussels may evolve perhaps because of the fitness advantage in relation to the offspring survival. Our findings further inform on the development of effective conservation and management strategy for the endangered bitterling fishes.

Greek primary school students’ moral judgments and motives about sustainable food consumption

Modern dietary habits pose large threats to the global vision for a sustainable food system transition, intensifying discussions around the urgency for educational initiatives that can promote more sustainable food consumption practices. However, research has not sufficiently studied food consumers' moral background, despite its strong influence on food choices, while relevant research on school-aged consumers is even scarcer. This study focuses on two individual ethical decision-making processes regarding food sustainability: moral judgments and moral motives. Data was selected using non-probability, opportunity sampling from 587 students attending the last two grades of primary school in the Region of Western Macedonia, Greece. Participants completed a Likert-scale questionnaire, which adopted a holistic approach towards food sustainability, incorporating the following 12 variables associated with all three domains of sustainability (environmental, societal, economic): Biodiversity, Carbon footprint, Soil, water and air conservation, (Food) loss and waste, Water footprint, Nutrition and health, Animal welfare, Workers' rights and safety, Cultural traditions, Food supply, Tax revenues and Profits, Jobs/incomes. In the moral motives scale, additional variables associated with non-moral considerations were also assessed: Sensory Appeal, Mood, Promotion, Social influence, Convenience and Familiarity. For the moral judgments scale, findings revealed low to medium scores for all the domains and among the variables associated with a sustainable food system, the lowest mean scores being recorded in those linked to the social dimension of sustainability. Regarding food consumption motives, results indicate that non-moral considerations prevail remarkably over moral ones and are linked to all three domains of sustainability. Statistical testing identified grade level, gender, place of residence and participation in environmental, health or food education school programs as factors influencing certain aspects of students’ moral thinking at a statistically significant level. Insights gained from this study can contribute to educational and other agendas aiming to promote sustainable food consumption.

Large carnivore distribution, conflicts and threats in the east of the Somali region, Ethiopia

AbstractLarge carnivore distribution in Ethiopia is not well documented; we did 108 interviews and 12 focus group discussions in six districts of the Somali Region to gather basic information. The Region is not listed as resident range for big cats, but our results indicate widespread presence of cheetah, and possible remnants of lion and leopard occurrence. Spotted and striped hyaena, plus many smaller species, are frequently encountered. In contrast to positive attitudes towards wild grazers, all carnivores are persecuted in response to frequent conflict leading to injuries and deaths among people and livestock. Lion and cheetah cubs were regularly captured and trafficked, and this may have contributed to lion declines especially. Cheetah cubs are still regularly caught and we mapped how they are smuggled to Somalia/Somaliland from where they enter the pet trade.

Leopard density and the ecological and anthropogenic factors influencing density in a mixed-use landscape in the Western Cape, South Africa.

Large carnivores face numerous threats, including habitat loss and fragmentation, direct killing, and prey depletion, leading to significant global range and population declines. Despite such threats, leopards (Panthera pardus) persist outside protected areas throughout most of their range, occupying diverse habitat types and land uses, including peri-urban and rural areas. Understanding of leopard population dynamics in mixed-use landscapes is limited, especially in South Africa, where the majority of leopard research has focused on protected areas. We use spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate leopard density across a mixed-use landscape of protected areas, farmland, and urban areas in the Overberg region of the Western Cape, South Africa. Data from 86 paired camera stations provided 221 independent captures of 25 leopards at 50 camera trap stations with a population density estimate of 0.64 leopards per 100 km2 (95% CI: 0.55-0.73). Elevation, terrain ruggedness, and vegetation productivity were important drivers of leopard density in the landscape, being highest on elevated remnants of natural land outside of protected areas. These results are similar to previous research findings in other parts of the Western Cape, where high-lying natural vegetation was shown to serve as both a refuge and a corridor for leopard movement in otherwise transformed landscapes. Given the low leopard density and the prevalence of transformed land intermixed with patches of more suitable leopard habitat, prioritising and preserving connectivity for leopards is vital in this shared landscape. Ecological corridors should be developed in partnership with private landowners through an inclusive and multifaceted conservation strategy which also incorporates monitoring of and rapid mitigation of emerging threats to leopards.

Chromosome-level genome assembly and population genomic analysis provide novel insights into the immunity and evolution of Sogatella furcifera

Sogatella furcifera is a destructive agricultural pest causing large threats to rice production in China and Southeast Asian countries. Despite recent breakthroughs in long-read sequencing, high quality genomic data are very limited in S. furcifera. In present study, a chromosome-level assembly of the S. furcifera genome was completed (0.64 GB), comprising 15 chromosomes covered 95.04% of the estimated genome size, along with other 624 small scaffolds making up the remaining 4.96% of the genome of S. furcifera. A total of 24,669 protein-coding genes, 1211 long noncoding RNA and 7595 circular RNA transcripts were predicted in this study. Comparative genomic analysis revealed rapidly evolved genes were associated with multiple immune-related pathways in S. furcifera. Genome resequencing of 44 individuals from 12 geographic populations revealed frequent gene flow among populations. The systemic genomic analysis will provide more insights into the understanding of the immunity and evolutionary adaptation of S. furcifera.

Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming

Flash droughts pose large threats to crop yields and ecosystem services due to their sudden onset and rapid intensification, arousing wide public concern in a warming climate. Their long-term characteristics of change, underlying mechanisms, and especially potential impacts on agriculture, forests, and populations at a global scale, however, remain largely unknown. We used in situ observations, two observation-based global reanalysis data sets, and 22 Earth system models to determine that flash droughts are shifting toward more frequent, accelerated-onset, and longer duration. These changes increased the exposure of agricultural areas, forested areas, and populations to flash droughts by 20.3%, 17.1%, and 30.0%, respectively, during 2001–2020 compared to 1981–2000, with a disproportionate increase in integrated risks across the Amazon Basin and eastern and southern Asia. The increase in concurrent hot and dry climatic conditions driven by warming has been mostly responsible for enabling and intensifying flash droughts over large regions. State-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, however, failed to identify the acceleration of the onset time of flash droughts and widely underestimated the occurrence of flash droughts that are driven only by precipitation deficits or by heat waves, probably because they misrepresent the dependence between precipitation and temperature and underestimate the sensitivity of soil moisture to temperature and precipitation at short timescales (e.g., 5 days). These syntheses comprehensively advance our understanding of the characteristics and impacts of flash droughts but also highlight that the CMIP6 models need to be validated to represent the correct covariability between climatic variables at short timescales to provide more reliable projections of flash droughts.

INDIA’S MARITIME SECURITY: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

The concept of maritime security deals with a range of security issues, which include national security, economic development, human security, the marine environment, and so forth. Maritime security is one of the most important aspects of national security and international politics in the present day. Countries that have large coastal areas face serious maritime challenges and threats. Those countries need to invest large amounts of their budget, energy, and time in strengthening maritime security. India is also one of them that has been facing the challenges of maritime security. Multiple terrorist attacks in Mumbai on November 26, 2008, exposed a lack of strong maritime security resources and infrastructure. The 26/11 terror attack is also considered a paradigm shift in India’s Maritime Security management. Therefore, to resolve the problems and counter maritime challenges and threats, India started giving more attention to maritime security. This paper examines how India’s maritime security discourse evolved, what the fundamental maritime security challenges India is facing presently are, what security policies and programs India has adopted and executed to counter those challenges, and what challenges still need to be addressed.

Nighttime light perspective in urban resilience assessment and spatiotemporal impact of COVID-19 from January to June 2022 in mainland China

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has resulted in large threats and damage to society and the economy. In this study, we evaluate and verify the comprehensive resilience and spatiotemporal impact of the COVID-19 epidemic from January to June 2022 in mainland China based on multisource data. First, we adopt a combination of the mandatory determination method and the coefficient of variation method to determine the weight of the urban resilience assessment index. Furthermore, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin were selected to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the resilience assessment results based on the nighttime light data. Finally, the epidemic situation was dynamically monitored and verified with population migration data. The results show that urban comprehensive resilience of mainland China is shown in the distribution pattern of higher resilience in the middle east and south and lower resilience in the northwest and northeast. Moreover, the average light intensity index is inversely proportional to the number of newly confirmed and treated cases of COVID-19 in the local area. This study provides a scientific reference to improve the comprehensive resilience of cities to achieve the goals of sustainable development (SDGs 11): make cities and human settlements resilient and sustainable.

Asteroid interception and disruption for terminal planetary defense

Modern techniques for planetary defense from comets and asteroids involve the deflection of the bolide via kinetic, gravitational, ablative, or radiative means. While potentially effective, none of these methods are capable of operating in a terminal interdiction mode wherethe threat is discovered with little time prior to impact. We present a practical and effective method for planetary defense which enables extremely short interdiction time scales, but can also operate within longer time scales and can be effective for extremely large threats. Called PI (“Pulverize It”), the method makes use of an array of hypervelocity penetrators which uses the kinetic energy of the asteroid or comet to disrupt it. In the terminal interdiction mode, the fragments of maximum ∼10 m diameter disperse laterally as they continue towards the Earth, and then enter the Earth’s atmosphere where they burn up as a series of airburst events which spatially and temporally de-correlate the energy of the original parent bolide for any arbitrary observer on the ground in the form of acoustical shockwaves and optical pulses. We show that terminal interdiction modes ranging from 2 minutes prior to impact for 20-meter class bolides (such as the Chelyabinsk asteroid), 1 day prior to impact for 100 m-class asteroids, 10 days prior to impact for Apophis-class asteroids (∼370 m), and even 60 days prior to impact for 1 km-class threats are all possible, though longer warning times are always preferred. Using only technologies readily available today, the PI method allows for a cost-effective and practical roadmap towards robust planetary defense capability.

Geological and geotechnical investigation of the seismic ground response characteristics in some urban and suburban sites in Chile exposed to large seismic threats

Geological and geotechnical investigation of the seismic ground response characteristics in some urban and suburban sites in Chile exposed to large seismic threats

Large Transformer Criticality, Threats, and Opportunities

Large power transformers (LPTs) represent a critical “tent‐pole” in national electric power grid, and national resiliency. They are essential to both the generation and transmission sectors of our electric power grid. They are known to be targets in adversaries' plans to debilitate our critical infrastructures. Their high cost and supply chain issues involving months to years of replacement times dictate the importance of survivability assurance. Transformer vulnerability and protection are addressed for physical attacks, cyber, and electromagnetic effects, including solar weather geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) and high altitude burst nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects. Programs have been underway to improve transformer and transformer substation cyber and physical resiliency. Similar programs are lagging for electromagnetic threats. Transformer vulnerability to EMP remains a subject of conjecture since no large power transformer has undergone threat‐level EMP testing. Prevalent claims that LPTs are immune to EMP are premature.The Savannah River National Laboratory has developed a test program and designed a test bed to complete testing on LPTs including physical set‐up, injection sources, and measurement equipment to enable transformer testing under real load conditions without harming the larger power grid. The SNRL test bed will enable tests to determine both transformer vulnerability thresholds and the effectiveness of protection devices. A concerted national effort is needed to determine LPT vulnerabilities and to expeditiously develop and certify effective EMP and GMD protection approaches.

Analysis of Information Security Using ISO 27001 and Triangular Fuzzy Number Weighting

The business process of an organization can’t be done properly without appropriate information management, in which information is an important asset that needs to be protected with the utmost care and concern. Information security is a way to protect information from large scale threats, thus to ensure the sustainability of the organization's operational, to reduce business risks and to increase business opportunity and return of investment. This research is conducted to measure the accountability of ISO 27001 in assisting the organization to document the information security policy. ISO/IEC 27001:2005 is a standard of information security that is widely used, openly accepted and implemented, and suitable for providing rules related to implementation and evaluation of the information security system. The assessment from ISO controls and objectives will be converted into a triangular fuzzy number to help in the analysis purpose. The fuzzy number is used to simplify the measurement. The result shows that the organization is not yet complying with the standard procedures of the Information Security Management System so it is needed to document the security policy based on the ISO 27001 framework standard.

An analysis of the factors responsible for the shoreline retreat of the Chao Phraya Delta (Thailand)

Deltas are inherently low-lying structures and thus subject to large threats due to sea level rise, erosion and other coastal processes. The shorelines in many deltas around the world are now retreating and most cases appear to result from a decreasing sediment supply as a consequence of upstream dam construction. We present here results of an investigation of riverine sediment fluxes, coastal retreat, and coastal sediment accumulation in the Chao Phraya River and Delta (Thailand). This deltaic shoreline has one of the highest rates of shoreline retreat in the world. Surprisingly, our results show that in spite of the construction of two large storage dams, one on the Ping River (Bhumibol Dam, 1964) and the other on the Nan River (Sirikit Dam, 1972) that merge to form the Chao Phraya, sediment accumulation in the delta was actually higher over the last several decades than prior to dam construction. The recent higher rates of sediment accumulation, based on 210Pb dating, appear to be the result of increased sediment supply in the lower reaches of the river relating to expansion of aquaculture and other activities in the delta beginning in the 1970s. We also show that mangrove removal, in order to further develop shrimp farming, charcoal production, and other pursuits, was not responsible for most of the shoreline erosion. Rather, subsidence, mainly induced by groundwater withdrawal, together with worldwide sea level rise appears to be the main factor affecting the very rapid shoreline retreat of the Chao Phraya Delta.

Young people's perception of sociocultural threats to the digital transformation of society

Introduction. The article analyzes the problem of socio-cultural threats to the digital transformation of society. The digital transformation of society leads to the presence of large socio-cultural threats associated with the instability of the value system and Russian society as a whole, and as a result, with the distortion of socio-cultural identity. The study and comparison of socio-cultural threats will allow us to answer the question: where is the modern socio-cultural environment ofRussia in General and individual regions (socio-territorial communities) in particular in terms of the importance of the threats produced? The problem of studying young people's perceptions of sociocultural threats is becoming relevant and timely.Materials and Methods. To study the perception of socio-cultural threats to the digital transformation of society by young people, a 13-point questionnaire was developed. The study involved 583 people, residents of the cities of Ivanovo, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Novosibirsk, St. Petersburg, Yaroslavl (23% – men, 77% – women; average age 20,5 years). The responses received were interpreted and processed using qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis.Results. There are two types of threats to the security of digital transformation of society: social (growth of cybercrime, reduction of interpersonal communication, growth of aggression and antisocial behavior, information stress) and cultural (decrease in the cultural level of society, weakening of the unity of the people, growth of interethnic conflicts, erosion of traditional values). Regions are dominated by various socio-cultural threats, but usually include both social and cultural threats.Discussion and Conclusions. The problem of digital transformation of society can be determined by the lack of a sense of security in the main spheres of life of socio-territorial communities-interpersonal, everyday, ethnic, religious, political, economic, information, etc. Insecurity in these areas determines the actualization of relevant threats and risks. Prevention of sociocultural threats will be facilitated by an objective assessment of their reality by young people through the formation of socio-cultural identity, development of critical thinking and social interaction skills.

The Dictator's Power‐Sharing Dilemma: Countering Dual Outsider Threats

AbstractDictators face a power‐sharing dilemma: Broadening elite incorporation mitigates prospects for outsider rebellions (by either elites excluded from power or the masses), but it raises the risk of insider coups. This article rethinks the theoretical foundations of the power‐sharing dilemma and its consequences. My findings contrast with and provide conditionalities for a “conventional threat logic,” which argues that large outsider threats compel dictators to create broader‐based regimes, despite raising coup risk. Instead, I analyze a game‐theoretic model to explain why the magnitude of the elite outsider threat ambiguously affects power‐sharing incentives. Dictators with weak coup‐proofing institutions or who face deeply entrenched elites take the opposite actions predicted by the conventional logic. An additional outsider threat from the masses can either exacerbate or eliminate the power‐sharing dilemma with elites, depending on elite affinity toward mass rule. Examining the elite‐mass interaction also generates new implications for how mass threats affect the likelihood of coups and regime overthrow.