Large Surge Research Articles

Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels

The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) calculates the surge probability distribution along the coast from their long-term tidal stations. This process is sufficient for predicting the surge from common storms but tends to underestimate large surges. Across 23 long-term tidal stations along the East Coast of the United States, 100-year surges were observed 49 times, although they should have occurred only 23 times. We hypothesize that these 100-year surges are not the tail outcome from common storms but are actually caused by major hurricanes. Matching these 100-year surges with major hurricanes revealed that major hurricanes caused 43 of the 49 surges. We consequently suggest a revised approach to estimating the surge probability distribution. We used tidal data to estimate the probability of common surges but analyzed major hurricane surges separately, using the return rate of major hurricanes and the observed surge from each major hurricane to predict hurricane surges. The revision reveals that expected coastal flooding damage is higher than we thought, especially in the southeast United States.

The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on ICU Organization, Care Processes, and Frontline Clinician Experiences: A Qualitative Study

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic resulted in unprecedented adjustments to ICU organization and care processes globally.Research QuestionsDid hospital emergency responses to the COVID-19 pandemic differ depending on hospital setting? Which strategies worked well to mitigate strain as perceived by intensivists?Study Design and MethodsBetween August and November 2020, we carried out semistructured interviews of intensivists from tertiary and community hospitals across six regions in the United States that experienced early or large surges of COVID-19 patients, or both. We identified themes of hospital emergency responses using the four S framework of acute surge planning: space, staff, stuff, system.ResultsThirty-three intensivists from seven tertiary and six community hospitals participated. Clinicians across both settings believed that canceling elective surgeries was helpful to increase ICU capabilities and that hospitals should establish clearly defined thresholds at which surgeries are limited during future surge events. ICU staff was the most limited resource; staff shortages were improved by the use of tiered staffing models, just-in-time training for non-ICU clinicians, designated treatment teams, and deployment of trainees. Personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages and reuse were widespread, causing substantial distress among clinicians; hands-on PPE training was helpful to reduce clinicians’ anxiety. Transparency and involvement of frontline clinicians as stakeholders were important components of effective emergency responses and helped to maintain trust among staff.InterpretationWe identified several strategies potentially to mitigate strain as perceived by intensivists working in both tertiary and community hospital settings. Our study also demonstrated the importance of trust and transparency between frontline staff and hospital leadership as key components of effective emergency responses during public health crises.

COVID-19 prevalence and presenting symptoms in a college student population: A retrospective chart review

Purpose: To describe the clinical presentation and prevalence of COVID-19 in a collegiate population at the time of initial recognition and testing. Methods: A retrospective chart review was performed of all students tested for COVID-19 at the University of Florida Student Health Care Center between March 9th and April 17th, 2020, comprising the first 6 weeks after spring break. Results: Twenty-five of 296 students (8.4%) tested positive for COVID-19. No significant differences were seen between positive and negative students regarding travel history or known exposures. Students who tested positive more commonly experienced fatigue, congestion, nausea, chest pain, anosmia, ageusia, anorexia, abdominal discomfort, and new problems sleeping over the course of illness. Conclusion: Initial symptoms unreliably clinically distinguish COVID-19 from other viral illnesses amongst college students. Providers should continue to have a low threshold for testing, especially as universities have seen large surges in cases related to students returning to campus.

State observers as a means for estimating derivatives of deterministic signals

To estimate the derivatives of a deterministic signal arriving in real time, a state observer is introduced, built as a replica of the virtual canonical model with an unknown bounded input. The results of a comparative analysis of observers with linear and piecewise linear corrective actions are presented, which are confirmed by the results of numerical modeling for piecewise differentiable composite function. Its derivatives have jump discontinuity points at the moments when the form of the function changes. It is shown that at these moments the observer variables with linear corrective actions with high gains have large surges, which increase by an order of magnitude with an increase in the order of the estimated derivative. Observers with bounded piecewise linear corrective actions do not have these problems and are recommended for use in practical applications.

Rational Use of Oxygen in COVID-19 Pandemic - Are We Doing Enough?

During the episodes of large case surge of COVID-19, the health care system of many nations have struggled, more so in nations with resource limitations. Recently, Nepal and the neighboring nation India are being hit hard by the pandemic. Management of patients with moderate and severe COVID-19 remains largely supportive, with oxygen therapy being the cornerstone of the management. Procurement, maintenance of oxygen supply system, coupled with avoiding misuse and wastage of oxygen is of paramount importance to better utilize the scarce resources amidst the peaks of a pandemic. Nepal needs to adopt policies to make best use of its stores and supplies with a collective effort from all stakeholders to save additional lives.

Temporal trends in opportunistic citizen science reports across multiple taxa

Opportunistic reporting of species observations to online platforms provide one of the most extensive sources of information about the distribution and status of organisms in the wild. The lack of a clear sampling design, and changes in reporting over time, leads to challenges when analysing these data for temporal change in organisms. To better understand temporal changes in reporting, we use records submitted to an online platform in Sweden (Artportalen), currently containing 80 million records. Focussing on five taxonomic groups, fungi, plants, beetles, butterflies and birds, we decompose change in reporting into long-term and seasonal trends, and effects of weekdays, holidays and weather variables. The large surge in number of records since the launch of the, initially taxa-specific, portals is accompanied by non-trivial long-term and seasonal changes that differ between the taxonomic groups and are likely due to changes in, and differences between, the user communities and observer behaviour.

Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China.

In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T‐RD) and the difference‐in‐difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple‐year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID‐19 in a few provinces in early‐mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.

Leadership: Tested in a Crisis

Administrative Update| March 2021 Leadership: Tested in a Crisis Mary Dale Peterson, MD, MSCHA, FACHE, FASA Mary Dale Peterson, MD, MSCHA, FACHE, FASA Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar ASA Monitor March 2021, Vol. 85, 7. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ASM.0000737028.02296.8d Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Cite Icon Cite Get Permissions Search Site Citation Mary Dale Peterson; Leadership: Tested in a Crisis. ASA Monitor 2021; 85:7 doi: https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ASM.0000737028.02296.8d Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search nav search search input Search input auto suggest search filter All ContentAll PublicationsASA Monitor Search Advanced Search Topics: leadership Everyone knows a good leader when they see one, but what makes a good leader? I have read a lot of books on leadership and have gleaned tidbits from many in my journey as a leader that I will share with you. When I began my year as ASA President in October 2019, I had no idea the number of crises we would be faced with. I am also the COO and Executive Vice President of our children's health system, having to also deal with all the challenges of COVID-19. In the middle of our largest surge in July, I also had to deal with the emergence of a Category 1 Hurricane. So what have I learned from all of this? I will first discuss the actions of a leader that are helpful in a crisis and then the... © 2021 American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), All Rights Reserved.2021 You do not currently have access to this content.

A Novel Large Scale Integrated Telemonitoring Program for COVID-19.

Introduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has forced health care systems to rethink the optimal delivery of health care services and has dramatically increased demand for general medicine providers (internal medicine, family medicine, emergency medicine), while simultaneously reducing demand for many subspecialty services. At Kaiser Permanente, we implemented a program wherein health care providers drawn from multiple disciplines perform daily telemedicine check-ins on COVID-19 patients, allowing us to both maintain social distancing and make use of providers in specialties who otherwise may have had lower in-clinic volumes. Methods: Kaiser Permanente patients testing positive for COVID-19 between March and October 2020 were referred to our program. Physicians and nurses (RNs) were invited to participate in our program and were trained using Microsoft Teams™ meetings. Patients receive daily phone calls by a physician or RN. Select patients receive portable pulse oximeter devices based on standardized criteria incorporating age and comorbidities. When patients are determined to be clinically stable, they are discharged back to their primary care physician for ongoing management. Results: Descriptive results for the virtual home care program (VHCP) are reported through October 2020, though these results do not represent a planned statistical analysis. Forty-two percent of the patients were male, 43% were black, and 30% were Hispanic. The most common comorbidities of patients in our program were obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m2; 35%), followed by hypertension (32%) and diabetes mellitus (19%). Then, 8.2% of patients ultimately required hospital admission. Mortality rate for patients in our program was 1.33%. Discussion: Our program was able to provide virtual care for thousands of COVID-19 positive Kaiser members in the Washington, DC, and Baltimore Metro regions. We did so by utilizing physicians and RNs from specialties experiencing a decrease in clinic volume attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. The experiences of our program may be valuable to clinicians wishing to establish similar programs of their own.

Research and Application on Numerical Simulation of Hydraulic Transients in Complex Water Conveyance System

Accurate simulation of hydraulic transients is crucial and complicated in the design of hydropower station and pumped storage power station. In this paper, key technologies for hydraulic transient simulation calculation in complex water conveyance system were studied. The structural matrix method with advantages of high accuracy and fast speed for numerical calculation was introduced. Complicated elements in the conveyance system were refined, such as high precision simulation of differential surge chamber, simulation of long and narrow upper chamber, new interpolation method for characteristic curve of pumped storage unit. Based on Jinping II hydropower station with special long headrace system and differential surge chamber, Baihetan hydropower station with complex tailrace system and large surge chamber and Xianyou pumped storage power station with complex unit characteristics and various working conditions, the application of the simulation software HYSIM in field test and inversion calculation was illustrated. The paper providing references for the design of similar projects.

Effects of nonlinear terms and topography in a storm surge model along the southeastern coast of China: a case study of Typhoon Chan-hom

Based on Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM), this study constructed a numerical model covering the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) data were used to drive the model to simulate a large storm surge generated by Typhoon Chan-hom. The model was validated by multiple in situ observations of water levels taken at tidal gauge stations. The effects of the nonlinear terms and topography on the modeling of storm surges were then studied. First, the tide–surge interaction during the storm surge process was analyzed. The results show that the tide–surge interaction can suppress the storm surge at the climax of the astronomical tide and benefit the growth of the storm surge at the ebb of the astronomical tide. The tidal constituents M2, S2 and K1 were added to analyze the influences of the amplitudes and periods of tides on the nonlinear reaction. The results indicate that the nonlinear effect will be enhanced by an increased tidal height; additionally, the nonlinear interaction of semidiurnal tides is more significant than that of diurnal tides. The semidiurnal fluctuation that appears near the peak-value time is also attributed to the tide–surge interaction. Moreover, the tide–surge interaction can be influenced by the water depth and position of the area of interest. According to the numerical results, topography has a certain impact on the storm surge: The peak value of the storm surge will decrease with increasing slope. The existence of the Ryukyu Islands reduces the area influenced by the storm surge on the southeast coast of China but expands the high-value storm surge area.

Characteristics of Pluto’s Haze and Surface from an Analytic Radiative Transfer Model

Abstract Observations of Pluto from New Horizons have been combined with previous ground-based observations and fit to a radiative transfer model based on Chandrasekhar’s planetary problem and Hapke theory to simultaneously derive the physical properties of the dwarf planet’s surface and atmosphere. We derive the macroscopic roughness, single-scattering albedo, and directional scattering properties of the surface, and the single-scattering albedo, optical depth, and single-scattering phase function of Pluto’s haze. The haze particles are small, with best-fit sizes in the range of ∼0.41–1.14 μm. We find that Pluto’s haze is more similar to that of Titan, rich in organic compounds and highly forward scattering, than that of Triton. With organic compounds and a likely subsurface water ocean, Pluto may harbor sustainable habitable environments. Our model, which includes the coherent backscatter effect, fits the anomalously large opposition surge recently discovered on Pluto.

Neighborhood quality and opposition to immigration: Evidence from German refugee shelters

Does refugee immigration affect the quality of neighborhood amenities, and are these changes driving the opposition to immigration? In this paper, I use real estate listings and online reviews of local amenities to demonstrate neighborhood change due to the establishment of a refugee shelter. The setting is Berlin during the refugee immigration episode of 2015. I show that shelter locations did not differ from control locations in terms of neighborhood quality or political outcomes before 2015. After a shelter is established, rental prices decline 3–4% within 100m of the shelter, relative to untreated locations. Ratings for existing amenities also decline in the immediate vicinity. However, anti-immigrant right-wing parties do not receive a higher share of the vote in these areas, which demonstrates that neighborhood decline due to immigration does not drive the large aggregate surge in their support.

Mountain waves can impact wind power generation

Abstract. Mountains can modify the weather downstream of the terrain. In particular, when stably stratified air ascends a mountain barrier, buoyancy perturbations develop. These perturbations can trigger mountain waves downstream of the mountains that can reach deep into the atmospheric boundary layer where wind turbines operate. Several such cases of mountain waves occurred during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River basin in the lee of the Cascade Range bounding the states of Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Signals from the mountain waves appear in boundary layer sodar and lidar observations as well as in nacelle wind speeds and power observations from wind plants. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations also produce mountain waves and are compared to satellite, lidar, and sodar observations. Simulated mountain wave wavelengths and wave propagation speeds (group velocities) are analyzed using the fast Fourier transform. We found that not all mountain waves exhibit the same speed and conclude that the speed of propagation, magnitudes of wind speeds, or wavelengths are important parameters for forecasters to recognize the risk for mountain waves and associated large drops or surges in power. When analyzing wind farm power output and nacelle wind speeds, we found that even small oscillations in wind speed caused by mountain waves can induce oscillations between full-rated power of a wind farm and half of the power output, depending on the position of the mountain wave's crests and troughs. For the wind plant analyzed in this paper, mountain-wave-induced fluctuations translate to approximately 11 % of the total wind farm output being influenced by mountain waves. Oscillations in measured wind speeds agree well with WRF simulations in timing and magnitude. We conclude that mountain waves can impact wind turbine and wind farm power output and, therefore, should be considered in complex terrain when designing, building, and forecasting for wind farms.

The Impact of COVID-19 Surge on Clinical Palliative Care: A Descriptive Study From a New York Hospital System

ContextIn spring 2020, New York experienced a surge of patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) disease, as part of a global pandemic. There are limited data on populations of COVID-19–infected patients seen by palliative care services. ObjectiveTo describe a palliative care population at one New York hospital system during the initial pandemic surge. MethodsThis repeated cross-sectional, observational study collected data on palliative care patients in a large health system seen during the COVID-19 outbreak and compared it with pre-COVID data. ResultsPalliative service volume surged from 678 (4% of total admissions) before COVID-19 to 1071 (10% of total admissions) during the COVID-19 outbreak. During the outbreak, 695 (64.9%) of the total palliative patients tested positive for the virus. Compared with a preoutbreak group, this COVID-19–positive group had higher rates of male (60.7% vs. 48.6%, P < 0.01) and Latino (21.3% vs. 13.3%; P < 0.01) patients and less white patients (21.3% vs. 13.3%; P < 0.01). Our patients with COVID-19 also had greater prevalence of obesity and diabetes and lower rates of end-stage organ disease and cancers. The COVID-19–positive group had a higher rate of intensive care unit admissions (58.9% vs. 33.9%; P < 0.01) and in-hospital mortality rate (57.4% vs. 13.1%; P < 0.01) than the preoutbreak group. There was increased odds of mortality in palliative care patients who were COVID-19 positive (odds ratio = 3.21; 95% confidence interval = 2.43–4.24) and those admitted to the intensive care unit (odds ratio = 1.45; 95% confidence interval = 1.11–1.9). ConclusionDuring the initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York, palliative care services experienced a large surge of patients who tended to be healthier at baseline and more acutely ill at the time of admission than pre–COVID-19 palliative patients.

Social lives of tsunami walls in Japan: Concrete culture, social innovation and coastal communities

This paper is the beginning of a reflection on the ways in which the Great East Japan Disaster (2011) might have changed people’s perception of seawalls and hard coastal defence in Japan. A highly developed society that is prone to frequent large tsunamis and storm surges, Japan’s spending on physical coastal defence has few equals around the world. The development of sea defence became a priority during the 1960-70s when coastal engineers and related agencies developed national standards. One of the chief strategies has been the edification of seawalls and other hard structures, which today surround more than 40% of Japan’s coastlines. This technological advancement might have created a general sentiment of security and trust in the ability of these coastal structures to protect coastal communities, their infrastructures and their nuclear plants. On March 11 2011, however, this general sense of safety was hardly shaken by a M9 earthquake and its ensuing tsunami taking away the lives of over 15,000 individuals and causing a material loss of over 210 billion dollars. If experts had anticipated such a large earthquake, the height of the tsunami waves and the extent of the damaged suffered along the coast of northeast Japan surpassed even the most pessimistic predictions. Reflecting on the impact of this tragedy, this paper is a first attempt to appreciate whether Japanese people’s perception of and approaches to seawalls and other coastal defences might have changed as a result. The first part of this paper provides a brief analytical overview of the culture of sea defence and its socio-economic significance in Japanese society. The second part examines more specifically the ways in which seawalls might have influenced people’s behaviour during the events of the Great East Japan Earthquake, including their creating a false-sense of security. Finally, the third part focuses on relatively innovative approaches to coastal defence in post-disaster Japan, with a particular focus on a national project known as the Great Forest Wall. Rather than its engineering efficacy, the interest in this project lies in the ways in which the project might inform us of changing people relationships and ideas with coastal defence.

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON WAVE RUNUP ON QUAY TOP AND ITS REPRODUCTION BY USING A BOUSSINESQ-TYPE WAVE MODEL

Ports and coastal industrial and commercial regions in Osaka bay were inundated with water due to storm wave overtopping during Typhoon Jebi passing through on September 4, 2018. Although the large storm surge was observed at the end of the bay, the sea level rarely rises over seawalls which prevent sea water from intruding onto residential areas, fortunately. Therefore, in this study, the characteristics of wave runup over the gap between berthing depth and quay top in high, normal and middle tide condition are investigated with vertical 2D model experiments. Moreover, numerical simulations are conducted by using a Boussinesq-type wave model, which can be also applied to wave overtopping and inundation in horizontal 2D computational region, to reproduce the results of model experiments.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/HCiUoj68xyY

Article Review “Phenomenological Perspective in Researching Immigrant Children’s Experience”, authors Batuchina A., Straksiene G.

The article of Batuchina and Straksiene “Phenomenological Perspective in Researching Immigrant Children’s Experience” has been published in the International Journal of Science Annals, Vol. 2, No. 1-2, 2019. Migration became one of the most acute problems of the modern world, which involves both political and social spectrums and became a very complex problem, which is very difficult to study from the Phenomenological Perspective. Everyone is well aware that to manage such large surges of migrants is practically impossible, as, for the scientists, they even do not have a united approach to the research of this unsolved phenomenon. For certain reasons people, in most cases, families have to change their dwelling spaces, to move from one country or city to another. Without even considering the physiological stress of the family members, especially children or elderlies. Among the many problems, which migrants face in a host country the most acute one is an adaptation. There is a mistaken perception that children adapt to every novelty and situation easily than adults, however, in this regards children are the most vulnerable. Here the problem is that in most cases, children are not even listed, since parents are concerned about searching for jobs and finding the ways to adapt to a new space. The authors explain that the meaning of migration is minimized for children and that adults do not pay attention to it. However, the experience of grown-ups draws significant attention.

Modelling the impact of presemester testing on COVID-19 outbreaks in university campuses

ObjectivesUniversities are exploring strategies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 prior to reopening their campuses. National guidelines do not currently recommend testing students prior to campus arrival. However, the impact...

ASSOCIATION OF ACUTE HEART FAILURE AND FEMORAL FRACTURES: A PROPENSITY-WEIGHTED ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL INPATIENT SAMPLE

SESSION TITLE: Cardiovascular Disease SESSION TYPE: Original Investigation Posters PRESENTED ON: October 18-21, 2020 PURPOSE: Heart failure in the setting of acute trauma is poorly understood. Associated large scale catecholamine surge is known to have a multitude of effects on the cardiovascular system. At our level 1 trauma center, we attempted to better characterize the correlation between acute heart failure and femoral fractures. METHODS: A composite database of National Inpatient Sample (NIS) for 2016 and 2017 was queried using ICD-10 codes to identify patients with femur fracture among a cohort of patients with acute heart failure. A propensity weighted logistic regression analysis was performed controlling for age, gender, and comorbidities. Propensity weighted cohorts were compared for correlation with acute HF [in each category of acute HF (acute, acute on chronic) and HF subtype (systolic, diastolic, combined systolic/diastolic, right heart, and takotsubo cardiomyopathy)]. RESULTS: Among a cohort of 815,899 patients with acute heart failure, a total of 3,792 patients were identified with a concurrent diagnosis of femoral fracture. Population average age was 82.19+8.8 years, 63.58% of whom were female. A propensity weighted logistic regression model using each acute heart failure subtype as a dependent variable was performed using Stata 16.1 controlling for age, gender, and comorbidity (presence of AICD, Pacemaker, history of chronic heart failure, diabetes, ischemic stroke, COPD, PVD, CKD, OSA, hypertension, CAD). Acute diastolic heart failure [OR 1.578, 95% CI(1.278-1.947), p < 0.001] and takotsubo cardiomyopathy [OR 2.041, 95% CI(1.622-2.567), p < 0.001] were found to have a strong positive correlation to femoral fracture. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, we focused on the comparison of patients with acute heart failure and the propensity for concurrent femoral fracture. A strong positive correlation with acute diastolic heart failure and takotsubo cardiomyopathy was found with femoral fractures. Patients with heart failure should be considered at higher risk for femoral fracture than the average healthy population. The increased risk can be attributed to comorbid conditions as well as the intrinsic risk posed by the pathophysiology of HF itself. Hip fractures may be an important, yet underreported contributor of mortality in HF patients. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Patients with femoral fracture should be monitored closely for acute heart failure. DISCLOSURES: No relevant relationships by Krishna Akella, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Charles Arcoleo, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Akella Chendrasekhar, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Priscilla Chow, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Kashif Hussain, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Samer Ibrahim, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Gunjan Joshi, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Ghulam Mujtaba, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Rajoo Patel, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Heidi Roppelt, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Nandini Seshan, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Howard Sklarek, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Liana Tatarian, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Daisy Young, source=Web Response