Large-scale Projects Research Articles

Mobilising in the face of large-scale urban change: a conversation between two community organisers from Johannesburg and London

Large-scale and long-term urban development projects often cause sizeable transformations in the built and social fabric, raising questions about the impacts on existing neighbourhoods and communities, and how they might try to shape the development. There are significant challenges to achieving community-based engagement at a large scale involving mobilising a wide range of stakeholders with different positionalities, agendas and priorities across multiple and diverse areas of a city. In this interview, two experienced organisers reflect together on their different but resonant experiences in building community networks to engage with large-scale developments. Between 2016 and 2018, the research project ‘Governing the Future City’ explored the governance of large-scale developments in three urban areas—London, Johannesburg and Shanghai. In Johannesburg and London, the research process directly funded and supported community-based organising in relation to the planning and implementation of the developments. The organisers and researchers worked with existing community-based organisations to try to influence the planning process, drawing together a wide range of affected community and neighbourhood groups. During the course of the research project, the two community coordinators, Mike Makwela (Planact, Johannesburg), focusing on the Corridors of Freedom project, and Sharon Hayward (London Tenants Federation and Grand Union Alliance), working on the Old Oak Park Royal development, visited the other city to explore possibilities to learn from each other’s experiences and contexts. In 2017, while Sharon was in Johannesburg, project researcher Romain Dittgen interviewed them together, twice, on 18 and 20 July, about their experiences of organising and mobilising in their respective cities, specifically in relation to large-scale development projects and in the context of highly diverse communities. Key issues that emerged concerned shared values of community self-organising, the benefits of building consensus or working with different views, and different approaches to relations with government officials and elected representatives. In parallel, they also reflected about working and collaborating with academics, as well as about possibilities for critical analysis of the developments and mutual learning across the two cases.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection in School Settings, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, 2021-2022.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread school closures were implemented globally based on the assumption that transmission among children in the school environment is common. However, evidence regarding secondary infection rates by school type and level of contact is lacking. Our study estimated the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infection in school settings by examining the positivity rate according to school type and level of contact by using data from a large-scale school-based PCR project conducted in Okinawa, Japan, during 2021-2022. Our results indicate that, despite detection of numerous positive cases, the average number of secondary infections remained relatively low at ≈0.5 cases across all types of schools. Considering the profound effects of prolonged closures on educational access, balancing public health benefits against potential long-term effects on children is crucial.

Predictive Modelling of Land Cover Changes in the Greater Amanzule Peatlands Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques

The Greater Amanzule Peatlands (GAP) in Ghana is an important biodiversity hotspot facing increasing pressure from anthropogenic land-use activities driven by rapid agricultural plantation expansion, urbanisation, and the burgeoning oil and gas industry. Accurate measurement of how these pressures alter land cover over time, along with the projection of future changes, is crucial for sustainable management. This study aims to analyse these changes from 2010 to 2020 and predict future scenarios up to 2040 using multi-source remote sensing and machine learning techniques. Optical, radar, and topographical remote sensing data from Landsat-7, Landsat-8, ALOS/PALSAR, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission derived digital elevation models (DEMs) were integrated to perform land cover change analysis using Random Forest (RF), while Cellular Automata Artificial Neural Networks (CA-ANNs) were employed for predictive modelling. The classification model achieved overall accuracies of 93% in 2010 and 94% in both 2015 and 2020, with weighted F1 scores of 80.0%, 75.8%, and 75.7%, respectively. Validation of the predictive model yielded a Kappa value of 0.70, with an overall accuracy rate of 80%, ensuring reliable spatial predictions of future land cover dynamics. Findings reveal a 12% expansion in peatland cover, equivalent to approximately 6570 ± 308.59 hectares, despite declines in specific peatland types. Concurrently, anthropogenic land uses have increased, evidenced by an 85% rise in rubber plantations (from 30,530 ± 110.96 hectares to 56,617 ± 220.90 hectares) and a 6% reduction in natural forest cover (5965 ± 353.72 hectares). Sparse vegetation, including smallholder farms, decreased by 35% from 45,064 ± 163.79 hectares to 29,424 ± 114.81 hectares. Projections for 2030 and 2040 indicate minimal changes based on current trends; however, they do not consider potential impacts from climate change, large-scale development projects, and demographic shifts, necessitating cautious interpretation. The results highlight areas of stability and vulnerability within the understudied GAP region, offering critical insights for developing targeted conservation strategies. Additionally, the methodological framework, which combines optical, radar, and topographical data with machine learning, provides a robust approach for accurate and detailed landscape-scale monitoring of tropical peatlands that is applicable to other regions facing similar environmental challenges.

Belite–ye’elimite–ferrite cements produced from London Clay

London Clay (LC) is generated in significant quantities from major infrastructure development projects within and around London, UK. Excavated LC spoils are typically landfilled or used for landscaping purposes with minimal value. This study investigates the feasibility of producing belite–ye’elimite–ferrite (BYF) cements using LC in combination with kaolin or low-grade bauxite. Six cement clinkers with varying compositions were synthesised at 1300°C. The phase composition of the synthesised clinkers was quantified using X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) coupled with Rietveld refinement. The hydration behaviour, phase assemblage evolution and mechanical performance of the cements were examined using isothermal calorimetry, XRD, thermogravimetric analysis and compressive strength testing, respectively, up to 90 days of curing. It is demonstrated that LC can be used either on its own or with kaolin or low-grade bauxite to produce BYF cements with a wide range of composition: 31 to 64 wt% belite, 9.3 to 27 wt% ye’elimite and 2.1 to 31 wt% ferrite. The use of LC as the sole alumina source resulted in low compressive strength at early stages. Nevertheless, the strength developed over time, reaching 27.8 MPa at 90 days (0.5 w/b). Possible approaches to develop LC further for producing viable BYF cements are discussed.

Fulfilling the potentials of residential solar energy in Egypt

Energy plays a very important role in Egypt’s economic development, but the country has a gap between its produced energy and the demand of its growing population. Utilization of solar power systems in Egypt could help the country to close this gap and fulfil its national and international obligations. However, since 1980, the focus in Egypt has been on large-scale industrial solar projects. Limited attention is given to smaller systems for typical residential buildings. The aim of this research, therefore, is to highlight the potential of small residential solar systems (SRSS) in Egypt. With the huge number of residential buildings accommodating more than 115 million Egyptians, SRSS could be the unearthed gem of a sustainable source of energy in Egypt. The geographical location of Egypt and climate were used to generate solar data using the Global Solar Atlas application. The amounts of monthly and annual solar irradiations were calculated and analysed to decide the best orientation of the system (facing east, west, north, and south), identify the optimum tilt angle of the system, and determine the size of the solar panels. A case study was used to illustrate the procedures of designing SRSS for a typical residential building in Egypt. The results showed that a 26 kWp SRSS oriented facing the east with an optimum tilt angle between 15° and 30° could produce an annual total output of electricity more than the annual demand of the occupants of the studied residential building. Such a system would fit easily on the roof of the building. It was concluded that the installation of SRSS in Egypt could help the country meet the demand of its ever-increasing population if properly regulated, financed, and managed. It is recommended that Egypt develop and implement policies to make installations of SRSS an attractive choice among homeowners and investors by introducing encouraging incentives and creating a competitive market with affordable SRSS.

Sailing along the global tobacco supply chain: public health insights of innovative database project

Abstract Background Tobacco control commonly focuses on reducing tobacco demand rather than tobacco supply. This paper presents findings from a major four-year project on the tobacco supply chain. Transnational Tobacco and Leaf Companies (TTLCs) and other tobacco supply chain companies argue that provision of livelihoods, exports and corporate social responsibility (CSR) exonerates tobacco. Our objective was to consider these claims. Methods This paper presents the results of three studies: a literature review and two analyses of data from the innovative Tobacco Supply Chain Database (TSCD). Study 1: A scoping review of academic literature (n = 124 papers) reviewing how the tobacco supply chain embeds the tobacco industry as a development actor. Study 2: The statistical association between countries hosting TTLC subsidiaries (TSCD) and TTLC interference in health policy (Global Tobacco Industry Interference Index) was analysed (n = 76 countries). Study 3: Document and website analysis of TSCD non-TTLC tobacco supply chain companies comparing descriptions of CSR and tobacco supply chain involvement (n = 80 companies). Results Study 1: Although there are instances of advantages of involvement in the tobacco supply chain, TTLCs tends to be associated with declines in tobacco workers’ income, equality, quality of life (cultural and health and wellbeing) and nations’ environment and economy. Study 2: Countries that hosted more TTLCs had more policy interference (farming subsidiaries p=.046, tobacco product manufacturing subsidiaries p=.008). Study 3: Non-TTLC companies often lack transparency regarding their connection to tobacco. For example, 68% linked to CSR activity on their homepage whereas only 16% linked to involvement in the tobacco supply chain. Conclusions Tobacco supply chain involvement is detrimental to public health, the environment and governance. Countries and companies should seek to extricate themselves from the tobacco supply chain. Key messages • Tobacco supply chain involvement weakens public health governance despite CSR activities. Lack of transparency on supply chain involvement by companies is thus a concern. • The new Tobacco Supply Chain Database illuminates previously hidden areas of the tobacco supply chain: the location of tobacco industry subsidiaries and presence of independent companies.

Photometric redshift estimation for CSST Survey with LSTM Neural Networks

Abstract Accurate estimation of photometric redshifts (photo-zs) is crucial for cosmological surveys. Various methods have been developed for this purpose, such as template fitting methods and machine learning techniques, each with its own applications, advantages, and limitations. In this study, we propose a new approach that utilizes a deep learning model based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict photo-z. Unlike many existing machine learning models, our method requires only flux measurements from different observed filters as input. The model can automatically learn the complex relationships between the flux data across different wavelengths, eliminating the need for manually extracted or derived input features, thereby providing precise photo-z estimates. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated using simulated data from the Chinese Space Station Telescope (CSST) sourced from the Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys (HST-ACS) and the COSMOS catalog, considering anticipated instrument effects of the future CSST. Results from experiments demonstrate that our LSTM model, compared to commonly used template fitting and machine learning approaches, requires minimal input parameters and achieves high precision in photo-z estimation. For instance, when trained on the same dataset and provided only with photometric fluxes as input features, the proposed LSTM model yields one-third of the outliers fout observed with a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) model, while the normalized median absolute deviation $\rm \sigma _{NMAD}$ is only two-thirds that of the MLP model. This study presents a novel approach to accurately estimate photo-zs of galaxies using photometric data from large-scale survey projects.

Effect of Outpatient Pooling Scheme on the Medical Costs of Patients with Chronic Diseases -- Based on Multi-period DID Modeling

The establishment of a sound mechanism for covering outpatient medical bills under the basic medical insurance for urban employees is one of the major livelihood projects to deepen the reform of China's medical security system. This study utilizes the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), combines the interview data from four periods from 2011 to 2018, empirically analyzes the impact of the outpatient pooling scheme on the total outpatient costs and personal burden of patients with chronic diseases by using a multi-period double-difference model and further validates it by using the double-difference propensity score matching method (PSM-DID). The results show that the implementation of the outpatient pooling scheme is conducive to reducing the healthcare burden of chronically ill patients. Although the outpatient co-ordination did not have a significant impact on the reduction of outpatient costs for patients with chronic diseases, it significantly reduced the self-treatment costs of patients with chronic diseases. Further research found that the policy had a greater impact on chronic disease patients with poorer health. Combined with the results of the study, this paper suggests gradually eliminating the differences in basic policy treatment between regions, guaranteeing the level of outpatient treatment for insured patients in different places, and promoting better utilization of the outpatient co-ordination policy effect.

Incorporating translanguaging in English instruction: teachers’ beliefs, practices, and influencing factors

ABSTRACT The question of whether and to what extent should the learners’ language repertoire (LR) be incorporated into the teaching of English as an additional language has been controversial for decades. The findings reported in this paper are part of a large-scale research project funded by the Israeli Ministry of Education aiming to introduce a new multilingual education policy. This study investigates teachers’ beliefs and reported practices on the use of their learners’ LR in the teaching of English as an additional language. The background and contextual factors associated with teachers’ use of their learners’ LR were examined as well. Utilizing a mixed methods approach, data sources included online questionnaires (N = 253) distributed to EFL teachers, semi-structured interviews (N = 56), and focus groups (N = 5) with teachers and stakeholders (e.g. inspectors, counselors). The findings revealed two contradictory beliefs intertwined with teachers’ reported practices: a monolingual paradigm and a bi/multilingual perspective. Differences in teachers’ beliefs and reported practices were identified as a function of factors related to the teachers’ background, their role, and contextual factors related to the school setting. Implications for language teacher-training programs in contexts where English is taught as an additional language are also discussed.

A coupled scaled boundary finite element and phase-field algorithm for seismic loading

Seismic-induced damage, integral to the safety evaluations of major engineering projects, persists as a key focus of research worldwide. Based on the Scaled Boundary Finite Element Method (SBFEM) and the Phase-Field Method (PFM), a coupled algorithm tailored for reciprocal loading was introduced in this paper, integrating strategies including "closure constraints," "numerical threshold strategy," and "subdomain block integration." Adopting object-oriented principles, a universal coupling solution framework has been built and seamlessly embedded within GEODYNA, a self-developed finite element software system. The accuracy was validated through rigorous benchmark tests. The entire process of crack initiation, propagation, and dynamic opening-closing cycles in the Koyna concrete gravity dam was reproduced. Furthermore, the effect of mesh size and computational timestep on the structural seismic response, crack localization, and the extent of damage in the dam were explored. The outcomes demonstrated that the SBFEM-PFM coupling algorithm performs effectively and meets the engineering precision criteria for seismic evaluations and reinforcement analyses of crucial structures.

Green upgrading of SPring-8 to produce stable, ultrabrilliant hard X-ray beams.

SPring-8-II is a major upgrade project of SPring-8 that was inaugurated in October 1997 as a third-generation synchrotron radiation light source. This upgrade project aims to achieve three goals simultaneously: achievement of excellent light source performance, refurbishment of aged systems, and significant reduction in power consumption for the entire facility. A small emittance of 50 pm rad will be achieved by (1) replacing the existing double-bend lattice structure with a five-bend achromat one, (2) lowering the stored beam energy from 8 to 6 GeV, (3) increasing the horizontal damping partition number from 1to 1.3, and (4) enhancing horizontal radiation damping by installing damping wigglers in long straight sections. The use of short-period in-vacuum undulators allows ultrabrilliant X-rays to be provided while keeping a high-energy spectral range even at the reduced electron-beam energy of 6 GeV. To reduce power consumption, the dedicated, aged injector system has been shut down and the high-performance linear accelerator of SACLA, a compact X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) facility, is used as the injector of the ring in a time-shared manner. This allows the simultaneous operation of XFEL experiments at SACLA and full/top-up injection of the electron beam into the ring. This paper overviews the concept of the SPring-8-II project, the system design of the light source and the details of the accelerator component design.

Working for the Workers? Infonavit’s Creation and Its Foundational Motivations, 1972-1976

As Mexican society urbanized rapidly from 1950 to 1970, housing became a major issue for city inhabitants. This article contributes a specific focus on Infonavit as a major social housing project of the Mexican government. I argue that the Echeverría government created Infonavit in 1972 as one of its social welfare packages for three key reasons: (1) to rejuvenate the PRI’s claim to revolutionary legitimacy, (2) to resolve the perceived ills of mass urbanization and to create ideal urban citizens, and (3) to support economic development. However, I also demonstrate that Infonavit operated as an institution with a core interest in improving the conditions of Mexican workers that was also informed by the goal of creating ideal citizens. Although the politics of Infonavit’s creation was closely linked with PRI legitimacy, Infonavit staff built an institute that was motivated to serve the housing needs of low-income Mexican workers.

Current constraints to reconcile tropical forest restoration and bioeconomy

AbstractLarge-scale forest restoration is vital for delivering a broad array of ecosystem services benefits to society. However, it is often perceived as an economically noncompetitive land use choice. Integrating economic opportunities into restoration aligns socioeconomic and environmental goals, reducing conflicts between forest production and conservation-oriented management decisions. Supply chains focusing on high-value goods can enhance the reach of forest restoration efforts and unite ecological and economic benefits in a multifunctional manner. The bioeconomy has emerged as a potential but critical driver for attracting investments in restoration. We outline the challenges and solutions to reconcile forest restoration and bioeconomy, specifically about (i) native timber production, (ii) non-timber forest products, (iii) biotechnological products, and (iv) intangible ecosystem services. This requires collaborative and multidisciplinary efforts to improve investment in large-scale projects. The intricacies of these issues intersect with research development, market dynamics, legal frameworks, and regulatory paradigms, underscoring the necessity for nuanced and tailored public policy interventions. These integrated approaches should enable tropical countries to lead the global forest-based economy and usher in a new era of forest restoration. Graphical abstract

A Delphi Study on Identifying Environmental Risk Factors in the Construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Abstract The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) represents a monumental initiative aimed at enhancing economic cooperation between China and Pakistan. However, the construction and operational phases of CPEC are fraught with numerous environmental risks that could impede its successful implementation. This study employs the Delphi method to systematically identify and evaluate the environmental risk factors associated with CPEC. A panel of experts from diverse fields, including environmental science, engineering, and regional planning, participated in multiple rounds of surveys to reach a consensus on the most critical environmental threats. Various studies have addressed general environmental impacts of large-scale projects, there is a gap in targeted research that systematically identifies and evaluates specific environmental risk factors associated with CPEC. This study aims to fill this gap by providing a detailed and consensus-based understanding. The findings highlight key risk areas such as carbon emission, climate change, air quality deterioration, and biodiversity loss. By providing a comprehensive risk assessment, this research offers valuable insights for policymakers, stakeholders, and project managers to develop robust mitigation strategies, ensuring the sustainable development of CPEC. The study underscores the importance of proactive environmental management in large-scale infrastructure projects within ecologically sensitive regions.

The Economic Benefits of a Major Canadian Forestry Contribution Program for Indigenous Peoples

This paper evaluates whether the First Nations Forestry Program (FNFP), a contribution program for Indigenous Peoples in Canada, had a statistically measurable effect on the well-being of participating reserves’ inhabitants. Funding data from 1,078 projects was paired with reserve inhabitant profiles from two Statistics Canada censuses. Multiple regression models were then used to test for the statistical significance of project-funding treatments. The results suggest that from 2006 to 2010, the FNFP significantly affected the after-tax incomes of reserve inhabitants who had worked in forestry, as well as a lesser effect on the after-tax incomes of reserve families.

Causal inference can lead us to modifiable mechanisms and informative archetypes in sepsis.

Medical progress is reflected in the advance from broad clinical syndromes to mechanistically coherent diagnoses. By this metric, research in sepsis is far behind other areas of medicine-the word itself conflates multiple different disease mechanisms, whilst excluding noninfectious syndromes (e.g.,trauma, pancreatitis) with similar pathogenesis. New technologies, both for deep phenotyping and data analysis, offer the capability to define biological states with extreme depth. Progress is limited by a fundamental problem: observed groupings of patients lacking shared causal mechanisms are very poor predictors of response to treatment. Here, we discuss concrete steps to identify groups of patients reflecting archetypes of disease with shared underlying mechanisms of pathogenesis. Recent evidence demonstrates the role of causal inference from host genetics and randomised clinical trials to inform stratification analyses. Genetic studies can directly illuminate drug targets, but in addition they create a reservoir of statistical power that can be divided many times among potential patient subgroups to test for mechanistic coherence, accelerating discovery of modifiable mechanisms for testing in trials. Novel approaches, such as subgroup identification in-flight in clinical trials, will improve efficiency. Within the next decade, we expect ongoing large-scale collaborative projects to discover and test therapeutically relevant sepsis archetypes.

Large-scale acute hospital bed and mattress implementations: insights and recommendations

Background/Aims Hospital-wide replacement of beds and mattresses, often referred to as an ‘implementation’, can be an efficient way of ensuring that these products are up to date. However, large-scale implementations can be daunting for healthcare managers, with a lack of guidance to support them through this process. This service evaluation aimed to provide practical suggestions to NHS managers who are planning a hospital-wide acute hospital bed and mattress implementation from peers who have completed similar projects. Methods Interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of seven NHS staff members, all of whom had held a leading role in managing and executing an implementation project with the provider Medstrom. Exploratory, qualitative, semi-structured interviews were conducted, with data analysed through content-driven narrative analysis, using NVivo software. Results Four themes relating to large-scale bed and mattress implementation were identified: drivers; specification process; financial process; and physical implementation and training. Communication and planning were considered crucial, as was selecting a provider that could offer support throughout the implementation. Participants had been able to successfully implement a large volume of products, but all felt that a resource allowing healthcare managers to draw on the experiences of others who had previously completed a large-scale implementation project would be beneficial. Conclusions Large-scale mattress implementations are achievable with the right input and support. Learning from the experiences and knowledge of peers who have previously been involved in implementations can be very useful for healthcare managers embarking on this kind of project.

Domesticating energy flexibility. Learning from great britain’s 2022–2023 demand flexibility service

Demand-response is essential for balancing electricity grids with increasing proportions of intermittent renewable sources of generation. Harnessing the potential for demand-response in domestic settings could deliver widespread benefits for electricity systems and householders. This study applies domestication theory to a major national domestic electricity demand-response programme in Great Britain, exploring how participants integrate demand-response sessions into their everyday routines. The study uses empirical data from twenty-five participants who completed diaries reflecting on their experience of taking part in thirteen demand-response sessions scheduled over a five-month period in winter 2022–23. The study identifies and analyses five pathways for domesticating demand-response, making recommendations to support system-actors in boosting and sustaining the adoption of demand-response. The study concludes that designing electricity demand-response programmes, as a staple of secure low-carbon energy systems, will need to take full account of users’ non-financial motivations, previous experiences of demand-response, and access to enabling technology.

A Preliminary Study on the Construction of a Natural Resource Comprehensive Survey System

Abstract. The establishment of a comprehensive survey, monitoring and evaluation system for natural resources is important for determining the background of China's natural resources, fulfilling the "two unification" responsibilities of the Ministry of Natural Resources, and implementing the construction of an ecological civilization. According to the task requirements of the unified survey and monitoring of natural resources, we summarize the progress of natural resource management systems, monitoring systems, technical development and implementation of major projects, propose upgrading the "3rd National Land Resource Survey" to "the 1st Comprehensive Natural Resource Survey", and explore the construction of natural resource survey systems. Combined with the pilot project of comprehensive investigation of natural resources with multiple elements, the next major work for the comprehensive investigation of natural resources is to accelerate the formulation of standards and specifications, carry out application demonstrations, and establish and improve the working mechanism and investigation team.

To the Сentenary of the Polonist Нistorian: Vladimir Alexandrovich Yakubsky

The article is devoted to the prominent Russian historian, specialist in the history of Poland Vladimir A. Yakubsky (1924–2013). In the context of the general characteristics of the scientist's creative heritage, a clear relationship between his social-economic research and observations on the general course of Polish history, including the most controversial issues, is shown. The contribution of V.A. Yakubsky, together with G.E. Lebedeva, to the creation of a collective portrait image of the Department of the History of the Middle Ages of Leningrad University, to the historiography of the history of Russian studies of Polish history is emphasized. It is particularly emphasized that the participation of V.A. Yakubsky's involvement in the implementation of major academic research projects was evidence of the inextricable scientific connections between Leniningrad-St. Petersburg Slavic studies and Moscow Slavic studies.