Large-scale Policy Research Articles

It is about time! Exploring the clashing timeframes of politics and public policy experiments

Abstract Although existing studies on experimental policymaking have acknowledged the importance of the political setting in which policy experiments take place, we lack systematic knowledge on how various political dimensions affect experimental policymaking. In this article, we address a specific gap in the existing understanding of the politics of experimentation: how political timeframes influence experimental policymaking. Drawing on theoretical discussions on experimental policymaking, public policy, electoral politics, and mediatization of politics, we outline expectations about how electoral and problem cycles may influence the timing, design, and learning from policy experiments. We argue electoral timeframes are likely to discourage politicians from undertaking large-scale policy experiments and if politicians decide to launch experiments, they prefer shorter designs. The electoral cycle may lead politicians to draw too hasty conclusions or ignore the experiment’s results altogether. We expect problem cycles to shorten politicians’ time horizons further as there is pressure to solve problems quickly. We probe the plausibility of our theoretical expectations using interview data from two different country contexts: Estonia and Finland.

Supporting energy policy research with large language models: A case study in wind energy siting ordinances

The recent growth in renewable energy development in the United States has been accompanied by a simultaneous surge in renewable energy siting ordinances. These zoning laws play a critical role in dictating the placement of wind and solar resources that are critical for achieving low-carbon energy futures. In this context, efficient access to and management of siting ordinance data becomes imperative. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently introduced a public wind and solar siting database to fill this need. This paper presents a method for harnessing Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate the extraction of these siting ordinances from legal documents, enabling this database to maintain accurate up-to-date information in the rapidly changing energy policy landscape. A novel contribution of this research is the integration of a decision tree framework with LLMs. Our results show that this approach is 85 to 90 % accurate with outputs that can be used directly in downstream quantitative modeling. We discuss opportunities to use this work to support similar large-scale policy research in the energy sector. By unlocking new efficiencies in the extraction and analysis of legal documents using LLMs, this study enables a path forward for automated large-scale energy policy research.

Pandemic changes in U.S. contraceptive use: National survey estimates reveal significant differences by demographic subgroups

ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic brought multiple simultaneous consequences, with high potential to change fertility-related behaviors. We use nationally representative sex and contraceptive use event history calendar measures to demonstrate person-specific changes in contraceptive use after the pandemic, showing differences across demographic subgroups. Study designWe use data from the first nationally representative web survey of U.S. fertility, fielded in 2020-2022: the American Family Health Study (AFHS). Using responses from 1,357 female-identifying respondents ages 18-49, we analyze 26,274 person-months of sex and contraceptive use data spanning directly before and after the beginning of the pandemic to detect change. ResultsIndividual-level hazard models of starting and stopping contraception revealed no pandemic-related changes in starting contraception, but significant reductions in the rate of stopping contraception for specific subgroups. Hispanic females reduced their rates of stopping contraceptive use during the pandemic (lowering their odds of stopping use by 71%), ultimately behaving more similarly to individuals from other racial or ethnic subgroups. Additionally, those aged 41 and older significantly reduced their rates of stopping contraceptive use (lowering their odds of stopping use by 78%) relative to other age groups. ConclusionsSudden large-scale health policy changes can produce significant changes in contraceptive use behaviors. The COVID-19 changes interacted with race, ethnicity, and age to produce different changes in contraceptive behaviors among different subgroups of the U.S. population.

Fiscal expenditure efficiency of China's coal to clean heating policy

Government subsidies are the backbone of the large-scale Coal to Clean Heating Policy launched in China in 2017. We analyze data from 27 pilot cities from 2017 to 2019. We use a slacks-based measure model with undesirable outputs to evaluate the optimal design of central and local government subsidies under the policy. While the overall efficiency is high, provincial capitals and cities with lower economic development levels show less efficiency. Our findings suggest that distributing central government subsidies based solely on administrative levels is not the best way to achieve perfect efficiency. Additionally, perfect efficiency at the city level may take years to achieve. A sweeping phase-out of government subsidies could lead to undesirable policy outcomes. Content analysis of normative documents from the six best-performing cities and six least efficient cities indicates that better-formulated legal and policy documents may contribute to higher efficiency. As lessons for designing and evaluating large-scale energy policies, we recommend considering 17 factors that could impact subsidy efficiency. We also suggest implementing a progressive phase-out schedule as a measure of policy efficiency and identifying factors that could ensure the long-term success of nationally implemented government subsidies.

A comparative review of methane policies of the United States and China in the context of US – China climate cooperation

ABSTRACT Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. The US and China are the world’s two of the largest methane emitters and jointly committed to tackling this global challenge in the US–China Joint Glasgow Declaration at COP26 in 2021. However, few studies have revealed the methane policy landscape in the two countries. Greater understanding of these policies and how they have evolved is critical for enhancing future actions. We addressed important research topics currently understudied, including the types of policy instruments used, the commonalities and differences between the two countries in their primary policy foci, and the evolution and driving forces of methane policies. This study conducted a comprehensive and comparative review of methane-related governance structures and policy frameworks in both countries. We performed policy mapping based on systematic and large-scale policy document collection and screening, followed by an in-depth review of the development of methane policies in both countries. This study found that both countries placed uneven emphases across sectors, with a notable focus on the energy sector. While the US showed a preference for regulatory policy instruments such as acts, rules and regulations, China primarily utilized planning instruments such as Five-Year Plans (FYPs), notices, and working guidelines. Additionally, methane policies in both countries were largely driven by safety, resource utilization, and pollution concerns rather than reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Our study suggests that both countries should fill the policy gaps to accelerate their actions on methane mitigation and consider more climate-centric policies. It underlines the potential for US–China collaboration through the exchange of knowledge and best practices, which would also greatly advance global climate governance.

The impact of smart city construction on labour distortions from the perspective of labour mobility: evidence from China

ABSTRACT Migration decisions and labour demand are influenced by smart city construction (SCC). However, the impacts of SCC on the labour market remain black-boxed. This paper investigates the impacts of SCC on labour market distortions through an examination of a large-scale smart city pilot policy in China. Utilising urban panel data in China spanning 2008-2019, we employ a multi-period difference-in-difference model to examine the labour factor allocation effects of SCC. Our findings reveal that SCC effectively mitigates labour wage distortion (LWD) but has an adverse effect on labour misallocation (LMA). labour mobility is a critical mechanism through which SCC alleviates labour wage distortion (LWD) but exacerbates labour misallocation (LMA). Furthermore, the results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that strongly connected and high human capital cities not only benefit from SCC in alleviating LWD but also avoid its negative effects on LMA. Conversely, SCC neither improves LWD nor alleviates LMA in weakly connected and low human capital cities. These findings imply that urban smart construction causes multiple impacts on the labour factor market, which is conducive to factor market guidance policies that can coordinate with SCC.

Using forced migration to foster emergence? International aid and development policies in Cameroon

Abstract This paper examines the alignment of refugee aid interventions with Cameroon’s national policy of emergence, shedding light on an authoritarian government's utilization of international assistance. Drawing on extensive ethnographic fieldwork, it investigates how international policies aiming at turning refugees into a development opportunity for their host states are managed by an aid-receiving country and strategically leveraged by Cameroonian authorities to strengthen their political apparatus. It explores how the government integrates humanitarian responses with large-scale development policies, while retaining control over strategic sectors. Implementing the emergence policy enables Cameroon to reappropriate international standards, navigating complex donor relations to establish new legitimacy. The analysis highlights the power dynamics and implications of aid interventions within an authoritarian context, demonstrating the state's capacity to transform internal crises into productive forces. This research contributes to a better understanding of the links between refugee aid, host states’ domestic and international politics, and migration diplomacy.

Examining Property Value Increment along Greenways: A Hedonic Pricing Analysis in Chengdu, China

Examining Property Value Increment along Greenways: A Hedonic Pricing Analysis in Chengdu, China

How framing strategies foster robust policy ideas

Abstract In this contribution, we identify how the framing strategies employed by policy and political actors make policy ideas robust. We examine the policy ideas of solidarity and sustainability to show how framing strategies that took advantages of the valence and polysemy of both ideas shaped them into robust policy ideas. Both ideas began as wide-ranging concepts designed to build coalitions in debates over a particular large-scale policy problem. Robustness is a quality that emerged over time as these ideas grew to become highly attractive framing devices to justify policy proposals. Moreover, they have proven to be resilient despite changing circumstances or even efforts of their opponents to reframe them in a negative way.

Investigating the Effects of Control Strategies of Urban Bus Systems during the early outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in China: a Survey of 211 cities

Whether large-scale COVID-19 tightening policies related to public transit contribute to slower rises in COVID-19 infection rates remains debatable. Therefore, this article extracted text data on urban bus control strategies in 211 Chinese cities and recorded active confirmed cases per million persons per day in each city. The Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA test (K samples) and accompanying pairwise comparisons were conducted using SPSS. Analysis shows that there are noticeable regional differences in the northern and southern parts of China during the pandemic in the control of public transit. Furthermore, based on the economic scale of the same population level, a comparison was made between all cities with high control intensity and some with low control intensity. We find no significant differences in the number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 between the two pairs of some of the compared cities, indicating that the public transport control strategies of some cities are overly strict and questionable. The heat maps of pairwise comparisons show that city pairs with no significant differences in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases account for many city clusters in the same interval. Additionally, in the comparative analysis of cities with the same population base, the proportion of no significant difference in the statistical analysis results of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increased with the decrease of the economic level of the cities. This pattern reflects the overly strict bus control strategies of some less economically developed cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, in the face of large-scale epidemics in the future, policies should formulate control strategies based on reality.

Human-centered design in the development of innovative technology for the food processing medium, small and micro enterprises (MSMEs) in Uganda

Taking account of end-user perspectives is crucial in the design and development process to ensure successful technology adoption considering the evolving customer demands. This study utilized the user-centric Human Center Design (HCD) framework to re-develop food processing equipment, specifically pulpers and pasteurizers, previously developed by the Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering (DABE) of Makerere University. The study implemented several interventions to augment the adoption of processing equipment among MSME agro-processors in Uganda. This included development of modified pasteurizers (biomass and electrical) and pulpers, development of user manuals, and training of processors on the use of equipment. All interventions were designed with a focus on the needs and preferences of the end users. This study demonstrates how HCD can be used to develop food processing equipment that addresses the dynamic needs of micro, small, and medium-scale agro-processors in form of production capacity and cost of ownership. The study findings can influence large-scale research and policy toward the production and adoption of user-centric food processing equipment, which in turn can provide agro-processors with increased livelihoods and reduce the major challenge of post-harvest losses.

Coping strategies and psychological distress among mothers during COVID-19 pandemic: The moderating role of social support.

The Indonesian government implemented a large-scale social restriction policy as part of the efforts to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. This policy impacted the population, including mothers, and caused considerable psychological distress. Individual efforts to cope (avoidant and approach coping strategies) and support from significant persons might help handle the distress experienced by mothers. The purpose of this empirical study is to investigate the effect of individual coping strategies on psychological distress and the moderating role of social support among Indonesian mothers. An online survey was administered from 20th to 25th April 2020 to 1534 Indonesian mothers (Mean age 37.12 years; SD 6.63). Brief COPE (28 items), Depression Anxiety Stress Scale/DASS (18 items), and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support/MSPSS (12 items) were used to measure coping strategies, psychological distress, and social support, respectively. IBM SPSS 24 software was used to analyze the data. The result showed that moderate and high levels of social support moderated the relationship between approach coping strategies and psychological distress (B = .041, CI .007-.075). When the mother uses approach coping, her psychological distress will decrease further whenever she receives moderate and high level social support. Any level of social support moderated the relationship between avoidant coping and psychological distress (B = -.100, CI -.138-.061). When mother used avoidant coping, her social support at any level served as buffer to her psychological distress. It can be concluded that mothers need to prioritize implementing approach coping strategies to lower their distress. Those who practiced avoidant coping strategies needed social support from their significant persons to decrease their distress.

Changing value system, shifting geography of opportunity: Trajectory of migrant workers in the garment industry in Beijing

Research on the geography of metropolitan opportunities has focused on a set of opportunities in different urban areas over time to justify policy interventions. The Beijing government implemented large-scale policy interventions to achieve structural industrial changes in order to stop the downward spiral of poverty and segregation in “urban villages.” Beijing has accelerated the redevelopment of urban villages and helped tens of thousands of low-wage migrant workers in garment villages move to surrounding secondary cities or small towns in Hebei Province with better opportunities. However, low-wage migrant workers did not respond linearly to the intervention. This study analyzes the reasons underlying the response of low-wage migrant workers to these policy interventions. First, the antipoverty policy is a geographic exercise, moving low-end industries from a global center to peripheral locations. This study considers why this mobility strategy for improving opportunity has become the arena for opportunistic behavior and conceptualizes the logic of opportunism and the self-worth of low-wage migrant workers in a metropolitan area. Second, the Beijing government is attempting to disperse the low-end informal industries into formal industrial bases in Hebei. Dispersal campaigns inevitably involve circuitous mobility and the outcome of dispersal is inherently unstable. One of the crucial questions in dispersal strategies is scale. Would an upscaled Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) City Region or a downscaled “neighborhood effect” better implement the antipoverty strategy? This dispersal strategy can break up the concentration of migrants, but their perceived opportunities remain in Beijing. One of the obstacles to the full implementation of the dispersal strategy is grassroots opposition. This study uses a three-year survey conducted prior to the COVID−19 lockdown to analyze how displaced migrant workers perceive these opportunities in their processual and networked decision-making. Garment villages are important “anchor places” where migrants can mobilize their social capital and facilitate upward mobility outside a dominant institution in Beijing. This study reveals how garment workers replicated informal habitats in more remote locations in Beijing as the old habitats disappeared.

Does the county-based poverty reduction policy matter for children's human capital development?

We evaluate the effects of China's large-scale county-based poverty reduction policy on children's human capital development. Based on a difference-in-difference model and multiple years' household and county-level datasets with national coverage, we find that this nationwide county-based poverty reduction policy significantly facilitates children's human capital development in poverty counties. The effects are more pronounced for children experienced consecutive treatment and those in more impoverished households. Our heterogeneity analyses indicate that there are not notable differences across the subsamples by gender, number of children, parental education attainment and ability. In addition, in terms of the channels through which this program increases children's cognitive outcomes, the program significantly promotes internet access in low-income families, extends children's learning time, and improves children's mental health condition, thus enhancing their human capital accumulation.

Local Economic Conditions Affect Aedes albopictus Management

Invasive mosquitoes are an emerging public health issue, as many species are competent vectors for pathogens. We assessed how multiple environmental and socio-economic factors affected the engagement of municipalities in Italy (n = 7679) in actions against Aedes albopictus, an invasive mosquito affecting human health and well-being, between 2000 and 2020. We collected information about mosquito control from official documents and municipal websites and modeled the role played by multiple environmental and socioeconomic factors characterizing each municipality through the random forest algorithm. Municipalities are more prone to manage A. albopictus if more urbanized, in lowlands and with long infestation periods. Moreover, these variables are more predictive of management in municipalities with a high median income and thus more economic resources. Only 25.5% of Italian municipalities approved regulations for managing A. albopictus, and very few of them were in Southern Italy, the most deprived area of the country. Our findings indicate that local economic conditions moderate the effect of other drivers of mosquito control and ultimately can lead to better management of A. albopictus. If the management of invasive mosquitoes, or other forms of global change, is subjected to local economic conditions, economic inequalities will jeopardize the success of large-scale policies, also raising issues of environmental and climate justice.

From text to effectiveness: Quantifying green industrial policies in China

The evolution of green industrial policy in China is deeply embedded within a unique political, economic, cultural, and social milieu. The intricacies and complexities inherent in this context present challenges for quantitative policy research. In the existing literature, the study of thematic clustering of green industry policy instruments and their effectiveness measures in large-scale policy text repositories remains a relatively unexplored area. To fill this research gap, this study provides an analysis of China's green industrial policies from 1994 to 2022. By adopting the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model, implicit and optimal themes are identified, and key policy instruments are systematically and comprehensively parsed. Based on this, the cutting-edge Policy Modeling Consistency-Text Encoder (PMC-TE) index model was used to conduct an in-depth quantitative evaluation of various policy tools. The findings reveal 15 policy instruments from 7891 Chinese green industry policy documents. Notably, technical support, information resource demonstration project policies emerged as the most frequently deployed and efficacious. Conversely, government procurement and service outsourcing policies, while showing incremental growth year-on-year, lagged in utilization and effectiveness. These policy instruments can be broadly categorized into three primary archetypes: supply-type, demand-type, and environment-type. The supply-type instruments dominate, while environment-type instruments remain underutilized. Additionally, this study delineates the four chronological phases of China's green industrial policy evolution, illuminating China's strategic pivots-transitioning from resource allocation, to market dynamics, and ultimately to environmental governance trajectories.

Heat recovery with low pressure loss for natural ventilation

Regenerative heat exchangers are widely used in life support systems, gas turbines, boilers and other high-temperature industrial installations. These heat exchangers are used for cooling and heating gases, humidification and dehumidification of gases, heat recovery from high-potential heat carriers. Today, the increase in energy consumption and the increase in energy prices require a large-scale energy-saving policy in the creation of modern engineering structures – residential, commercial and industrial facilities alike. When designing and creating life support systems to save energy, it is advisable to use secondary energy resources, such as, for example, the heat of the air removed from the room. The energy intensity of conventional ventilation systems is on average 50–80% of the total energy intensity of the engineering systems of the facility where they are operated. The use of rotating regenerative heat exchangers in ventilation and air conditioning systems makes it possible to return up to 85% of heat to the system at a relatively low capital investment. In this regard, when improving such systems, considerable attention should be paid to the calculation, optimization and increase in the efficiency of heat exchangers. Thus, this work is about increasing the efficiency of rotating regenerative heat exchangers in ventilation and air conditioning systems.

British Columbia’s Safer Opioid Supply Policy and Opioid Outcomes

In March 2020, British Columbia, Canada, became the first jurisdiction globally to launch a large-scale provincewide safer supply policy. The policy allowed individuals with opioid use disorder at high risk of overdose or poisoning to receive pharmaceutical-grade opioids prescribed by a physician or nurse practitioner, but to date, opioid-related outcomes after policy implementation have not been explored. To investigate the association of British Columbia's Safer Opioid Supply policy with opioid prescribing and opioid-related health outcomes. This cohort study used quarterly province-level data from quarter 1 of 2016 (January 1, 2016) to quarter 1 of 2022 (March 31, 2022), from British Columbia, where the Safer Opioid Supply policy was implemented, and Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where the policy was not implemented (comparison provinces). Safer Opioid Supply policy implemented in British Columbia in March 2020. The main outcomes were rates of prescriptions, claimants, and prescribers of opioids targeted by the Safer Opioid Supply policy (hydromorphone, morphine, oxycodone, and fentanyl); opioid-related poisoning hospitalizations; and deaths from apparent opioid toxicity. Difference-in-differences analysis was used to compare changes in outcomes before and after policy implementation in British Columbia with those in the comparison provinces. The Safer Opioid Supply policy was associated with statistically significant increases in rates of opioid prescriptions (2619.6 per 100 000 population; 95% CI, 1322.1-3917.0 per 100 000 population; P < .001) and claimants (176.4 per 100 000 population; 95% CI, 33.5-319.4 per 100 000 population; P = .02). There was no significant change in prescribers (15.7 per 100 000 population; 95% CI, -0.2 to 31.6 per 100 000 population; P = .053). However, the opioid-related poisoning hospitalization rate increased by 3.2 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 0.9-5.6 per 100 000 population; P = .01) after policy implementation. There were no statistically significant changes in deaths from apparent opioid toxicity (1.6 per 100 000 population; 95% CI, -1.3 to 4.5 per 100 000 population; P = .26). Two years after its launch, the Safer Opioid Supply policy in British Columbia was associated with higher rates of safer supply opioid prescribing but also with a significant increase in opioid-related poisoning hospitalizations. These findings will help inform ongoing debates about this policy not only in British Columbia but also in other jurisdictions that are contemplating it.

Transmission chains of the first local outbreak cause by Delta VariantB.1.617.2 COVID-19 in Guangzhou, Southern China

BackgroundThe first local outbreak of Delta Variant B.1.617.2 COVID-19 of China occurred in Guangzhou city, south China, in May 2021. This study analyzed the transmission chains and local cluster characteristics of this outbreak, intended to provide information support for the development and adjustment of local prevention and control strategies.MethodsThe transmission chains and local cluster characteristics of 161 local cases in the outbreak were described and analyzed. Incubation period, serial interval and generation time were calculated using the exact time of exposure and symptom onset date of the cases. The daily number of reported cases and the estimated generation time were used to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt).ResultsWe identified 7 superspreading events who had more than 5 next generation cases and their infected cases infected 70.81%(114/161) of all the cases transmission. Dining and family exposure were the main transmission routes in the outbreak, with 29.19% exposed through dining and 32.30% exposed through family places. Through further analysis of the outbreak, the estimated mean incubation period was 4.22 (95%CI: 3.66–4.94) days, the estimated mean generation time was 2.60 (95%CI: 1.96–3.11) days, and the estimated Rt was 3.29 (95%CI: 2.25–5.07).ConclusionsClassification and dynamically adjusted prevention and control measures had been carried out according to analysis of transmission chains and epidemical risk levels, including promoting nucleic acid screening at different regions and different risk levels, dividing closed-off area, controlled area according to the risk of infection, raising the requirements of leaving Guangzhou. By the above control measures, Guangzhou effectively control the outbreak within 28 days without implementing a large-scale lockdown policy.

“Crimean Issue” and the Civilizational Foundations of Russia’s Foreign Policy in the Context of a Global Hybrid War

The article examines the role of the phenomenon of civilizational identity in Russia’s foreign policy in the context of the current hybrid confrontation based on the study of the parameters of the possibilities for resolving the “Crimean issue”. The essence of the global hybrid conflict between Russia and the West is analyzed, the possibilities of using the concept of civilizational identity as a geopolitical toolkit are determined. Aim . Unleashing the potential of the concept of civilizational identity in the global hybrid confrontation with the collective West in the context of the formation of a polycentric world order based on the experience of resolving the “Crimean issue”.Tasks. Determine the essence and parameters of the global geopolitical conflict in modern world political conditions; to characterize the role of the civilizational identity of the Crimean population in solving the “Crimean issue”, to identify the potential of civilizational identity for solving domestic and foreign political problems, taking into account Russian national interests.Methods. Geopolitical approach, system analysis, retrospective method, document analysis.Results . The study showed the need for the formation and conceptualization of the civilizational foundations of Russia’s foreign policy. This should be a larger-scale policy that is creative in nature and translates the principles of justice and peaceful interstate relations. Changes in Russian foreign policy thinking can bring positive results — to strengthen the Russian statehood, Russia’s international subjectivity, lay the foundations for a truly polycentric world order and expand the boundaries of the Russian world.Conclusions . The concept of civilizational identity acts as a universal an d effective tool for solving the “Crimean issue” and therefore should be considered both as a basic social value, and as a mandatory category of state document strategies, and as a formative element in th e information sphere.