Large-scale Ocean-atmosphere Interactions Research Articles

Predictability and prediction skill of summertime East/Japan Sea surface temperature events

The East/Japan Sea (EJS), a marginal sea of the Northwestern Pacific, is one of the ocean regions showing the most rapid warming and greatest increases in ocean heatwaves over the last several decades. Predictability and skillful prediction of the summer season EJS variability are crucial, given the increasing severity of ocean temperature events impacting fisheries and reinforcing climate conditions like the East Asian rainy season, which in turn affects adjacent high-population density areas over East Asia. We use observations and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) seasonal forecast system to investigate the summertime EJS Sea Surface Temperature (SST) predictability and prediction skill. The observations and seasonal prediction system show that the summer season EJS SST can be closely linked to the previous winter air-sea coupling and predictable 8–9 months in advance. The SPEAR seasonal prediction system demonstrates skillful forecast of EJS SST events from summer to late fall, with added skill for long-lead forecasts initialized in winter. We find that winter large-scale atmospheric circulations linked to Barents Sea variability can induce persistent surface wind anomalies and corresponding northward Ekman heat transport over the East China Sea. The ocean advection anomalies that enter the EJS in prior seasons appear to play a role in developing anomalous SST during summer, along with instantaneous atmospheric forcing, as the source of long-lead predictability. Our findings provide potential applications of large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in understanding and predicting seasonal variability of East Asian marginal seas.

Different moisture regimes during the last 150 years inferred from a tree-ring δ18O network over the transitional zone of the Asian summer monsoon

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are two interactive climate systems dominating the moisture variability of Monsoon Asia. However, ISM-EASM interactions and their effects on regional moisture dynamics remain unclear. This study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of monsoon-related hydroclimate variability by establishing a new tree-ring oxygen isotope ratio (δ18Otree) network of eight δ18Otree records covering the last 150 years in southern China, which differs from previous studies that used data from individual sites. The δ18Otree chronologies were found to be sensitive to regional hydroclimatic changes during the monsoon season. The δ18Otree network indicated an east–west clustering pattern in the ISM-EASM transitional zone, which demonstrates an asynchrony in δ18Otree variability in the west and east of this region. Regional variability of the west and east δ18Otree modes reflected the different moisture signals, as indicated by their significant correlations with modern observations and paleo-δ18O records in disparate upstream regions of moisture transport (the Indochina Peninsula and Southeast China). This finding was confirmed by the east–west distinct pattern of spatial isotopic depletion of monsoon rainfall that originates from coastal areas of tropical oceans (Bay of Bengal and South China Sea) to the study area, as well as the consistent present-day pattern of atmospheric vapor transport during the monsoon season. In addition, the west and east modes exhibited stronger associations with ISM variability, whereas the east–west δ18Otree gradient captured the EASM-related hydroclimatic signal, suggesting that summer moisture variability in the ISM-EASM transitional zone was regulated more by ISM than by EASM during the last 150 years. The relationships between δ18Otree and large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction modes revealed that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominantly modulates δ18Otree variability across southern China.

The IOD–ENSO Interaction: The Role of the Indian Ocean Current’s System

The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is one of the main modes characterizing the interannual variability of the large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in the equatorial zone of the World Ocean. A dipole manifests itself as an out-of-phase interannual fluctuation of the ocean–atmosphere characteristics in the western and eastern parts of the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean. IOD can be a consequence of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) events in the Pacific Ocean, or it can be independent of them and arise due to the Indian Ocean inherent processes. Earlier, it was suggested that the generation of the long planetary waves in the Indian Ocean by the ENSO events is one of the mechanisms of the ENSO impact on the IOD. However, quite often, such a mechanism is not the case and IOD is generated itself as an independent Indian Ocean mode. We hypothesized that this generation is due to the growing oceanic disturbances, as a result of instability of the system of Indian Ocean zonal currents in the vicinity of the critical layer, in which the phase velocity of Rossby waves is equal to the average velocity of the zonal currents. In the present work, the study of the features of the formation of the critical layer in the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean is continued using different oceanic re-analyses and standard theory of the Rossby waves. As a result of comparison of different re-analyses data with the RAMA (The Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction) measurements, the operative re-analysis ORAS5 output of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on potential temperature, salinity, and the zonal component of the currents’ velocity for the period 1979–2018 was used. Monthly profiles of potential temperature, salinity, and the zonal component of the currents’ velocity were selected from the ORAS5 archive for the sections situated between 7.5–15.5° S and 50–100° E. From these data and for each month, using the standard theory of planetary waves, the phase velocity of the lowest baroclinic mode of the Rossby long waves was calculated and the critical layers were determined. For each critical layer, its length was calculated. The obtained time series of the length of the critical layers were compared to the variability of dipole mode index (DMI). It is shown that the majority of the cases of the IOD generation as inherent (independent on the Pacific processes) mode were accompanied by the critical layer formation in the region of interest. Usually, the critical layers occur in spring, one to two months before the onset of the positive IOD events. This indicates that the presence of instability in the system of the zonal currents can be a reason for the generation of IOD and the asymmetry of the amplitude of the dipole mode index between positive and negative events. During the extremely intense ENSO event of 1997–1998, which was accompanied by the strong IOD event, the critical layer in the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean was absent. This ENSO event generated the oceanic planetary waves at the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is shown that the above mechanism of the ENSO–IOD interaction is a reality.

Impact of Large-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions on Interannual Water Storage Changes in the Tropics and Subtropics

Satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide unique measurements of global terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes at different spatial and temporal scales. Large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions might have significant impacts on the global hydrological cycle, resulting in considerable influences on TWS changes. Quantifying the contributions of large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions to TWS changes would be beneficial to improving our understanding of water storage responses to climate variability. In the study, we investigate the impact of three major global ocean–atmosphere interactions—El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on interannual TWS changes in the tropics and subtropics, using GRACE measurements and climate indices. Based on the least square principle, these climate indices, and the corresponding Hilbert transformations along with a linear trend, annual and semi-annual terms are fitted to the TWS time series on global 1° × 1° grids. By the fitted results, we analyze the connections between interannual TWS changes and ENSO, IOD, and AMM indices, and estimate the quantitative contributions of these climate phenomena to TWS changes. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes in the tropics and subtropics are related to ENSO, IOD, and AMM climate phenomena. The contribution of each climate phenomenon to TWS changes might vary in different regions, but in most parts of the tropics and subtropics, the ENSO contribution to TWS changes is found to be more dominant than those from IOD and AMM.

Wood Anatomy of Douglas-Fir in Eastern Arizona and Its Relationship With Pacific Basin Climate.

Dendroclimatic reconstructions, which are a well-known tool for extending records of climatic variability, have recently been expanded by using wood anatomical parameters. However, the relationships between wood cellular structures and large-scale climatic patterns, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are still not completely understood, hindering the potential for wood anatomy as a paleoclimatic proxy. To better understand the teleconnection between regional and local climate processes in the western United States, our main objective was to assess the value of these emerging tree-ring parameters for reconstructing climate dynamics. Using Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy, we measured cell lumen diameter and cell wall thickness (CWT) for the period 1966 to 2015 in five Douglas-firs [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] from two sites in eastern Arizona (United States). Dendroclimatic analysis was performed using chronologies developed for 10 equally distributed sectors of the ring and daily climatic records to identify the strongest climatic signal for each sector. We found that lumen diameter in the first ring sector was sensitive to previous fall–winter temperature (September 25th to January 23rd), while a precipitation signal (October 27th to February 13th) persisted for the entire first half of the ring. The lack of synchronous patterns between trees for CWT prevented conducting meaningful climate-response analysis for that anatomical parameter. Time series of lumen diameter showed an anti-phase relationship with the Southern Oscillation Index (a proxy for ENSO) at 10 to 14year periodicity and particularly in 1980–2005, suggesting that chronologies of wood anatomical parameters respond to multidecadal variability of regional climatic modes. Our findings demonstrate the potential of cell structural characteristics of southwestern United States conifers for reconstructing past climatic variability, while also improving our understanding of how large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions impact local hydroclimatic patterns.

CASPIAN SEA LEVEL AS AN INDICATOR OF LARGE-SCALE MOISTURE CYCLING IN THE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-LAND SYSTEM

The article discusses the entire causal chain in the North Atlantic – atmosphere –Volga basin – Caspian Sea level system. Its component part is the “Caspian Sea” hydrological system, interpreted as the sea itself, its drainage basin, and the atmosphere above the sea and the basin. Its analysis has demonstrated that changes in the sea water volume are modeled by a set of hydrological and meteorological factors of different nature, with different spatio-temporal variability, and determined at significantly different accuracies. The main factor for the interannual variation of the sea water volume, and hence the increment of the Caspian level, is the annual runoff via the Volga. The Volga streamflow variation is fully controlled by precipitation in the drainage zone of the catchment. In turn, interannual precipitation fluctuations are largely defined by the inflow (outflow) of a vertically integrated horizontal flow of water vapor across the lateral boundaries of the runoff-producing zone of the Volga basin. The zonal transfer of water vapor from the North Atlantic is shown to be the determinant in the among-year variation of precipitation in the Volga basin both in winter and in summer. It has been established that evaporation is growing and the zonal transfer of water vapor to Europe and then to the Volga basin is being intensified as a result of a higher cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea in particular, due to large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Consequently, more rainfall occurs in the runoff-producing zone of the basin, annual streamflow of the Volga increases, and the Caspian level rises. The reverse is observed when cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic weakens. Therefore, the Caspian Sea level is an integral indicator of large-scale moisture exchange in the ocean-atmosphere-land system.

Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures.

We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one‐half cycle (~35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1–4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3–1.0 μg m−3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long‐term air quality planning.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Variability of seasonal and annual rainfall in the River Nile riparian countries and possible linkages to ocean–atmosphere interactions

Variability analyses for the rainfall over the Nile Basin have been confined mostly to sub-basins and the annual mean of the hydroclimatic variable based on observed short-term data from a few meteorological stations. In this paper, long-term country-wide rainfall over the period 1901–2011 was used to assess variability in the seasonal and annual rainfall volumes in all the River Nile countries in Africa. Temporal variability was determined through temporal aggregation of series rescaled nonparametrically in terms of the difference between the exceedance and non-exceedance counts of data points such that the long-term average (taken as the reference) was zero. The co-occurrence of the variability of rainfall with those of the large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions was analyzed. Between 2000 and 2012, while the rainfall in the equatorial region was increasing, that for the countries in the northern part of the River Nile was below the reference. Generally, the variability in the rainfall of the countries in the equatorial (northern) part of the River Nile was found to be significantly linked to occurrences in the Indian and Atlantic (Pacific and Atlantic) Oceans. Significant linkages to Niño 4 regarding the variability of both the seasonal and annual rainfall of some countries were also evident.

Identification of sub-trends from hydro-meteorological series

In hydro-meteorological trend analysis, an alteration in the given variable is detected by considering the long-term series as a whole. Whereas the long-term trend may be absent, the significance of hidden (short-durational) sub-trends in the series may be important for environmental management practices. In this paper, a graphical approach of identifying trend or sub-trends using nonparametric cumulative rank difference (CRD) was proposed. To confirm the significance of the visualized trend, the CRD was translated from the graphical to a statistical metric. To assess its capability, the performance of the CRD method was compared with that of the well-known Mann–Kendall (MK) test. The graphical and statistical CRD techniques were applied to detect trends and sub-trends in the annual rainfall of 10 River Nile riparian countries (RNRCs). The co-occurrence of the trend evolutions in the rainfall with those of the large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions was analyzed. The power of the CRD method was shown to closely agree with that of the MK test under the various circumstances of sample sizes, variations, linear trend slopes, and serial correlations. At the level of significance α = 5 %, the long-term trends were found present in 30 % of the RNRCs. However at α = 5 %, the main downward (upward) sub-trends were found significant in 30 (60 %) of the RNRCs. Generally at α = 1 %, linkages of the trend evolutions in the rainfall of the RNRCs were found to those of the influences from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. At α = 5 %, influences from the Pacific Ocean on the rainfall trends of some countries were also evident.

Water storage changes and climate variability within the Nile Basin between 2002 and 2011

Understanding water storage changes within the Nile’s main sub-basins and the related impacts of climate variability is an essential step in managing its water resources. The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission provides a unique opportunity to monitor changes in total water storage (TWS) of large river basins such as the Nile. Use of GRACE-TWS changes for monitoring the Nile is, however, difficult since stronger TWS signals over the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) and the Red Sea obscure those from smaller sub-basins making their analysis difficult to undertake. To mitigate this problem, this study employed Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to extract statistically independent TWS patterns over the sub-basins from GRACE and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model. Monthly precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) over the entire Nile Basin are also analysed by ICA. Such extraction enables an in-depth analysis of water storage changes within each sub-basin and provides a tool for assessing the influence of anthropogenic as well as climate variability caused by large scale ocean–atmosphere interactions such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Our results indicate that LVB experienced effects of both anthropogenic and climate variability (i.e., a correlation of 0.56 between TWS changes and IOD at 95% confidence level) during the study period 2002–2011, with a sharp drop in rainfall between November and December 2010, the lowest during the entire study period, and coinciding with the drought that affected the Greater Horn of Africa. Ethiopian Highlands (EH) generally exhibited a declining trend in the annual rainfall over the study period, which worsened during 2007–2010, possibly contributing to the 2011 drought over GHA. A correlation of 0.56 was found between ENSO and TWS changes over EH indicating ENSO’s dominant influence. TWS changes over Bar-el-Ghazal experienced mixed increase–decrease, with ENSO being the dominant climate variability in the region during the study period. A remarkable signal is noticed over the Lake Nasser region indicating the possibility of the region losing water not only through evaporation, but also possibly through over extraction from wells in the Western Plateau (Nubian aquifer).

Sensitivity of ENSO to Stratification in a Recharge–Discharge Conceptual Model

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is driven by large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions in the equatorial Pacific and is sensitive to change in the mean state. Whereas conceptual models of ENSO usually consider the depth of the thermocline to be influential on the stability of ENSO, the observed changes in the depth of the 20°C isotherm are rather weak, on the order of approximately 5 m over the last decades. Conversely, change in stratification that affects both the intensity and sharpness of the thermocline can be pronounced. Here, the two-strip conceptual model of An and Jin is extended to include three parameters (i.e., the contribution of the first three baroclinic modes) that account for the main characteristics of the mean thermocline vertical structure. A stability analysis of the model is carried out that indicates that the model sustains a lower ENSO mode when the high-order baroclinic modes (M2 and M3) are considered. The sensitivity of the model solution to the coupling efficiency further indicates that, in the weak coupling regime, the model allows for several ocean basin modes at low frequency. The latter can eventually merge into a low-frequency and unstable mode representative of ENSO as the coupling efficiency increases. Also, higher baroclinic modes project more energy onto the ocean dynamics for the same input of wind forcing. Therefore, in this study’s model, a shallower, yet more intense mean thermocline may still sustain a strong (i.e., unstable) and low-frequency ENSO mode. Sensitivity tests to the strength of the two dominant feedbacks (thermocline vs zonal advection) indicate that the presence of high-order baroclinic modes favors the bifurcation from a low-frequency regime to a higher-frequency regime when the zonal advective feedback is enhanced. It is suggested that the proposed formalism can be used to interpret and measure the sensitivity of coupled general circulation models to climate change.

Interannual atmospheric variability forced by the deep equatorial Atlantic Ocean

Climate variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is determined by large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, which particularly affect deep atmospheric convection over the ocean and surrounding continents. Apart from influences from the Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Atlantic variability is thought to be dominated by two distinct ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability that are characterized by meridional and zonal sea-surface-temperature gradients and are mainly active on decadal and interannual timescales, respectively. Here we report evidence that the intrinsic ocean dynamics of the deep equatorial Atlantic can also affect sea surface temperature, wind and rainfall in the tropical Atlantic region and constitutes a 4.5-yr climate cycle. Specifically, vertically alternating deep zonal jets of short vertical wavelength with a period of about 4.5 yr and amplitudes of more than 10 cm s(-1) are observed, in the deep Atlantic, to propagate their energy upwards, towards the surface. They are linked, at the sea surface, to equatorial zonal current anomalies and eastern Atlantic temperature anomalies that have amplitudes of about 6 cm s(-1) and 0.4 °C, respectively, and are associated with distinct wind and rainfall patterns. Although deep jets are also observed in the Pacific and Indian oceans, only the Atlantic deep jets seem to oscillate on interannual timescales. Our knowledge of the persistence and regularity of these jets is limited by the availability of high-quality data. Despite this caveat, the oscillatory behaviour can still be used to improve predictions of sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic. Deep-jet generation and upward energy transmission through the Equatorial Undercurrent warrant further theoretical study.

Remotely modulated tropical-North Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions by the South Asian high

The tropical Pacific exhibits pronounced interannual fluctuations, which are predominantly characterized by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Studies have demonstrated various atmospheric and oceanic circulations associated with ENSO. However, many aspects of how ENSO links the downstream Asian monsoon systems remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to improve understanding of these interactions and linkages and to explore underlying physical processes and mechanisms. Our results suggest that the summer South Asian high (SAH) appears to play a modulating role in the tropical-North Pacific large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions and serves to transmit signals linking ENSO. When an El Niño develops in the central and eastern tropical Pacific in winter, an anomalous high appears over the midlatitudes of East Europe and West Asia, with locally less precipitation and a drier land surface from spring to summer. This helps retain the atmospheric signal excited by the winter ENSO until summer. The drier land surface increases tropospheric temperature at the midlatitudes of Eurasia during summer, favoring the strengthening of the summer SAH. The strengthened summer SAH emanates anomalous wave energy downstream along the westerly jet stream, which is manifested by the eastward-propagating high-frequency disturbances peaking at 6–9-day and quasi-two-week periods. This affects the extratropical North Pacific, where an intensified surface subtropical high occurs. Accordingly, the meridional wind anomalies occur away from the equator and the easterly wind anomalies occur over the tropical eastern Pacific. These changes in the atmospheric circulation then induce the development of a negative ENSO cycle. As a consequence, the North Pacific sea surface temperature decreases and the ENSO phase begins to change.

Observations of Large-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction in the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract The authors provide a detailed examination of observed ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Focus is placed on the observed relationships between variability in SH extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results are examined separately for the warm (November–April) and cold (May–October) seasons and for monthly and weekly time scales. It is shown that the signatures of the SAM and ENSO in the SH SST field vary as a function of season, both in terms of their amplitudes and structures. The role of surface turbulent and Ekman heat fluxes in driving seasonal variations in the SAM- and ENSO-related SST anomalies is investigated. Analyses of weekly data reveal that variability in the SAM tends to precede anomalies in the SST field by ∼1 week, and that the e-folding time scale of the SAM-related SST field anomalies is at least 4 months. The persistence of the SAM-related SST anomalies is consistent with the passive thermal response of the Southern Ocean to variations in the SAM, and seasonal variations in the persistence of the SAM-related SST anomalies are consistent with the seasonal cycle in the depth of the ocean mixed layer.

Climate Fluctuations of Tropical Coupled Systems—The Role of Ocean Dynamics

Abstract The tropical oceans have long been recognized as the most important region for large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions, giving rise to coupled climate variations on several time scales. During the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade, the focus of much tropical ocean research was on understanding El Niño–related processes and on development of tropical ocean models capable of simulating and predicting El Niño. These studies led to an appreciation of the vital role the ocean plays in providing the memory for predicting El Niño and thus making seasonal climate prediction feasible. With the end of TOGA and the beginning of Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR), the scope of climate variability and predictability studies has expanded from the tropical Pacific and ENSO-centric basis to the global domain. In this paper the progress that has been made in tropical ocean climate studies during the early years of CLIVAR is discussed. The discussion is divided geographically into three tropical ocean basins with an emphasis on the dynamical processes that are most relevant to the coupling between the atmosphere and oceans. For the tropical Pacific, the continuing effort to improve understanding of large- and small-scale dynamics for the purpose of extending the skill of ENSO prediction is assessed. This paper then goes beyond the time and space scales of El Niño and discusses recent research activities on the fundamental issue of the processes maintaining the tropical thermocline. This includes the study of subtropical cells (STCs) and ventilated thermocline processes, which are potentially important to the understanding of the low-frequency modulation of El Niño. For the tropical Atlantic, the dominant oceanic processes that interact with regional atmospheric feedbacks are examined as well as the remote influence from both the Pacific El Niño and extratropical climate fluctuations giving rise to multiple patterns of variability distinguished by season and location. The potential impact of Atlantic thermohaline circulation on tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) is also discussed. For the tropical Indian Ocean, local and remote mechanisms governing low-frequency sea surface temperature variations are examined. After reviewing the recent rapid progress in the understanding of coupled dynamics in the region, this study focuses on the active role of ocean dynamics in a seasonally locked east–west internal mode of variability, known as the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Influences of the IOD on climatic conditions in Asia, Australia, East Africa, and Europe are discussed. While the attempt throughout is to give a comprehensive overview of what is known about the role of the tropical oceans in climate, the fact of the matter is that much remains to be understood and explained. The complex nature of the tropical coupled phenomena and the interaction among them argue strongly for coordinated and sustained observations, as well as additional careful modeling investigations in order to further advance the current understanding of the role of tropical oceans in climate.

Relationships between South Atlantic SST Variability and Atmospheric Circulation over the South African Region during Austral Winter

Abstract The Southwestern Cape (SWC) region of South Africa is characterized by winter rainfall brought mainly via cold fronts and by substantial interannual variability. Previous work has found evidence that the interannual variability in SWC winter rainfall may be related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic Ocean and to large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in this region. During wet winters, SST tends to be anomalously warm (cool) in the southwest Atlantic and southeast Atlantic (central South Atlantic). Atmospheric general circulation model experiments with various idealized SST anomalies in the South Atlantic are used to explore mechanisms potentially associated with the rainfall variability. The model results suggest that the atmosphere is sensitive to subtropical–midlatitude SST anomalies in the South Atlantic during winter. Locally, there are changes to the jet position and strength, low-level relative vorticity, and convergence of moisture and latent heat flux that lead to changes in rainfall over the SWC. The model response to the SST forcing also shows large-scale anomalies in the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere circulation, namely, an Antarctic Oscillation–type mode and wavenumber-3 changes, similar to those observed during anomalous winters in the region.

Long-term changes in plankton community structure and productivity in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre: The domain shift hypothesis

Oceanic productivity, fishery yields and the net marine sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases are all controlled by the structure and function of planktonic communities. Detailed paleoceanographic studies have documented abrupt changes in these processes over timescales ranging from centuries to millennia. Most of these major shifts in oceanic productivity and biodiversity are attributable to changes in Earth's climate, manifested through large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. By comparison, contemporary biodiversity and plankton community dynamics are generally considered to be “static”, in part due to the lack of a suitable time frame of reference, and the absence of oceanic data to document ecosystem change over relatively short timescales (decades to centuries). Here we show that the average concentrations of chlorophyll a (chl a) and the estimated rates of primary production in the surface waters of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) off Hawaii have more than doubled while the concentrations of dissolved silicate and phosphate have decreased during the past three decades. These changes are accompanied by an increase in the concentration of chl b, suggesting a shift in phytoplankton community structure. We hypothesize that these observed ecosystem trends and other related biogeochemical processes in the upper portion of the NPSG are manifestations of plankton community succession in response to climate variations. The hypothesized photosynthetic population “domain shift” toward an ecosystem dominated by prokaryotes has altered nutrient flux pathways and affected food web structure, new and export production processes, and fishery yields. Further stratification of the surface ocean resulting from global warming could lead to even more enhanced selection pressures and additional changes in biogeochemical dynamics.

Minireviews: A Sea of Change: Biogeochemical Variability in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) is the largest ecosystem on our planet. However, this expansive habitat is also remote, poorly sampled, and therefore not well understood. For example, the most abundant oxygenic phototroph in the NPSG, Prochlorococcus, was described only a decade ago. Other novel Bacteria, Archaea and Eukarya, recently identified by nucleic acid sequence analysis, have not been isolated. In October 1988, an ocean time-series research program was established to study ecosystem processes in the gyre, including rates and pathways of carbon and energy flow, spatial and temporal scales of variability, and coupling of ocean physics to biogeochemical processes. After a decade of ecosystem surveillance, this sentinel observatory has produced an unprecedented data set and some new views of an old ocean. Foremost is evidence for dramatic changes in microbial community structure and in mechanisms of nutrient cycling in response to large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. These and other observations demand reassessment of current views of physical-biogeochemical processes in this and other open-ocean ecosystems.

The role of nitrogen fixation in biogeochemical cycling in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean

Seven years of time-series observations of biogeochemical processes in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean gyre have revealed dramatic changes in the microbial community structure and in the mechanisms of nutrient cycling in response to large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Several independent lines of evidence show that the fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by cyanobacteria can fuel up to half of the new production. These and other observations demand a reassessment of present views of nutrient and carbon cycling in one of the Earth′s largest biomes.