Large-scale Catastrophic Events Research Articles

Preferred nesting habitat of the slow-breeding Superb Lyrebird is rare and was disproportionately impacted by Australia’s “Black Summer” megafires (2019–2020) within a World Heritage Area

Abstract Understanding nest site selection is critical to developing effective conservation management actions. The Superb Lyrebird (Menura novaehollandiae) is one of many endemic species extensively impacted by Australia’s unprecedented 2019–2020 megafires. Over a period of 5 months, an estimated 43% of the entire range of this slow-breeding species was burnt, with the biggest impact on the central subspecies M. n. novaehollandiae (55%). Four months prior to these megafires, we conducted a field study of nest site habitat selection in the Superb Lyrebird within the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area (15,400 km2): a key stronghold of the central subspecies of the Superb Lyrebird. We found that at the local scale, lyrebird nest sites were more likely to be found in habitats characterized by dense canopy trees and rich in rainforest elements such as vines and treeferns. At the landscape scale, lyrebird nests were most likely to be constructed in rainforest; this fire-sensitive habitat type made up only 1% of the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area. The probability of nest occurrence also increased with slope. We also found that >74% of all nesting habitat within the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area burned in the 2019–2020 megafires, including 80% of areas of high suitability for nesting. These results suggest that the impact of these megafires on Superb Lyrebirds may be greater than currently thought. Given the importance of rainforest as nesting habitat for the Superb Lyrebird, managers should prioritize its restoration and protect it from future fire events. More broadly, our results illustrate how large-scale catastrophic events—such as megafires—can disproportionately affect habitats critical to specific points within an organism’s life cycle.

Suicide in Hungary during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: Subgroup investigations

BackgroundCOVID-19 may unfavourably affect the mental health of individuals in various ways. Accordingly, the concern has been raised that national suicide rates will increase in the wake of the outbreak of the pandemic. MethodsIn the current study, we tested this conjecture in three age groups (<25; 25–64; ≥65) of the Hungarian total population and the male and female populations. In addition, we assessed whether the pandemic had different effects on counts of suicides committed by violent or non-violent methods. Finally, by comparing the monthly suicide rates in 2020 and the corresponding monthly rates in 2019, we also investigated the “pulling together” hypothesis that postulates that a temporary decrease in suicides may occur after large-scale catastrophic events. ResultsWith regard to the total population only the suicide counts of individuals aged 25–64 rose significantly (p < 0.05) during the COVID months of 2020. Similar patterns, but at lower levels of significance (0.05 < p < 0.1), were found in those members of the total population aged 65 or older and among males aged between 25 and 64. Furthermore, we found that the number of violent suicides increased significantly (p < 0.05) during the COVID months. Finally, our results have not confirmed the existence of a “pulling together” phenomenon in association with the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary. LimitationsWe used non-individual level data and were therefore unable to control suicide risk factors at the level of individuals. DiscussionThe number of suicides rose significantly in some subgroups of the Hungarian population during the COVID months of 2020.

Media Effects on Individual Worldview and Wellness for Long-Term Care Residents Amid the COVID-19 Virus.

The following article serves as a means tohighlightthe need for increased scrutiny of the value and potentially adverse effect the 24-hour news cycle has on individuals, particularly residents in a long-term care setting amidst the COVID-19 pandemic or other large-scale catastrophic events. The work will emphasize what is currently known regarding the impact media plays on an individual, including mood, opinion, worldview, and overall mental health and wellness. The conclusion will focus on discussing current means of assessment with future recommendations for heightened evaluation in this already vulnerable population.

Implications of K, Cu and Zn isotopes for the formation of tektites

Abstract Tektites are mm to cm sized glassy objects generated through high-energy meteoroid impacts on the surface of the Earth under high temperature and pressure, and reducing conditions. They are the products of large-scale catastrophic events in Earth’s history and can be used to understand the behavior of moderately volatile elements (e.g., K and Zn) during impact vaporization events. Here, we report bulk K isotopic compositions of tektites from three different strewn fields and “in-situ” profile analysis of both K and Zn isotopes in one complete tektite. All tektites span a narrow range in their K isotopic compositions (δ41KBSE: −0.10 ± 0.03‰ to 0.16 ± 0.04‰), revealing no discernible K isotopic fractionation from the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE) and upper continental crust materials, which is consistent with previous results. In contrast, Zn isotopes show a large variation (δ66Zn: −0.39 ± 0.02‰ to 2.38 ± 0.03‰) even within one specimen. In order to provide a coherent explanation for the different behavior of moderately volatile elements (K, Zn and Cu), we have conducted thermochemical calculations to compute the partial vapor pressures of Cu2O, K2O, and ZnO dissolved in silicate melts as a function of temperature, pressure, oxygen and chlorine fugacities. In a large range of the parameter space, the calculations show that Cu and Zn can be vaporized much easier than K and thus produce large isotopic fractionation. In contrast, the lithophile element K is more prone to remain in the silicate melt because of its very low activity coefficient in the melt, and thus the K isotopes remain unfractionated. This study provides new constraints on the formation of tektites and is consistent with a “bubble-stripping” model to explain the extreme water and volatiles depletion in tektites.

Committee Opinion No. 726: Hospital Disaster Preparedness for Obstetricians and Facilities Providing Maternity Care

(Obstet Gynecol. 2017;130(6):e291–e297) Large-scale catastrophic events or disasters cause evacuation of as many as 20 hospitals per year. In general, health care institutions play an important role in effective disaster mitigation planning. However, the obstetric population is unique and particularly vulnerable to patient volume surge, unpredictable resource use, infectious disease, and trauma. Obstetric units and their associated patient populations thereby warrant special consideration in the event of a disaster. New publications from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) have highlighted the importance of disaster preparedness through the definition of specific levels of maternity care and protocols specific to obstetric triage.

Committee Opinion No. 726: Hospital Disaster Preparedness for Obstetricians and Facilities Providing Maternity Care.

Large-scale catastrophic events and infectious disease outbreaks highlight the need for disaster planning at all community levels. Features unique to the obstetric population (including antepartum, intrapartum, postpartum and neonatal care) warrant special consideration in the event of a disaster. Pregnancy increases the risks of untoward outcomes from various infectious diseases. Trauma during pregnancy presents anatomic and physiologic considerations that often can require increased use of resources such as higher rates of cesarean delivery. Recent evidence suggests that floods and human-influenced environmental disasters increase the risks of spontaneous miscarriages, preterm births, and low-birth-weight infants among pregnant women. The potential surge in maternal and neonatal patient volume due to mass-casualty events, transfer of high-acuity patients, or redirection of patients because of geographic barriers presents unique challenges for obstetric care facilities. These circumstances require that facilities plan for additional increases in necessary resources and staffing. Although emergencies may be unexpected, hospitals and obstetric delivery units can prepare to implement plans that will best serve maternal and pediatric care needs when disasters occur. Clear designation of levels of maternal and neonatal care facilities, along with establishment of a regional network incorporating hospitals that provide maternity services and those that do not, will enable rapid transport of obstetric patients to the appropriate facilities, ensuring the right care at the right time. Using common terminology for triage and transfer and advanced knowledge of regionalization and levels of care will facilitate disaster preparedness.

Committee Opinion No. 726 Summary: Hospital Disaster Preparedness for Obstetricians and Facilities Providing Maternity Care.

Large-scale catastrophic events and infectious disease outbreaks highlight the need for disaster planning at all community levels. Features unique to the obstetric population (including antepartum, intrapartum, postpartum and neonatal care) warrant special consideration in the event of a disaster. Pregnancy increases the risks of untoward outcomes from various infectious diseases. Trauma during pregnancy presents anatomic and physiologic considerations that often can require increased use of resources such as higher rates of cesarean delivery. Recent evidence suggests that floods and human-influenced environmental disasters increase the risks of spontaneous miscarriages, preterm births, and low-birth-weight infants among pregnant women. The potential surge in maternal and neonatal patient volume due to mass-casualty events, transfer of high-acuity patients, or redirection of patients because of geographic barriers presents unique challenges for obstetric care facilities. These circumstances require that facilities plan for additional increases in necessary resources and staffing. Although emergencies may be unexpected, hospitals and obstetric delivery units can prepare to implement plans that will best serve maternal and pediatric care needs when disasters occur. Clear designation of levels of maternal and neonatal care facilities, along with establishment of a regional network incorporating hospitals that provide maternity services and those that do not, will enable rapid transport of obstetric patients to the appropriate facilities, ensuring the right care at the right time. Using common terminology for triage and transfer and advanced knowledge of regionalization and levels of care will facilitate disaster preparedness.

Integrating Volunteers into Rescue Processes

Recently, rescue worker resources have not been sufficient to meet the regular response time during large-scale catastrophic events in every case. However, many volunteers supported official forces in different disaster situations, often self-organized through social media. In this paper, a system will be introduced which allows the coordination of trained volunteers by a professional control center with the objective of a more efficient distribution of human resources and technical equipment. Volunteers are contacted via app on their private smartphone. The design of this app is based on user requirements gathered in focus group discussions. The feedback of the potential users includes privacy aspects, low energy consumption, and mechanisms for long-term motivation and training. The authors present the results of the focus group analyses as well as the transfer to their app design concept.

Surviving at any cost: guilt expression following extreme ethical conflicts in a virtual setting.

Studying human behavior in response to large-scale catastrophic events, particularly how moral challenges would be undertaken under extreme conditions, is an important preoccupation for contemporary scientists and decision leaders. However, researching this issue was hindered by the lack of readily available models. Immersive virtual worlds could represent a solution, by providing ways to test human behavior in controlled life-threatening situations. Using a massively multi-player zombie apocalypse setting, we analysed spontaneously reported feelings of guilt following ethically questionable actions related to survival. The occurrence and magnitude of guilt depended on the nature of the consequences of the action. Furthermore, feelings of guilt predicted long-lasting changes in behavior, displayed as compensatory actions. Finally, actions inflicting immediate harm to others appeared mostly prompted by panic and were more commonly regretted. Thus, extreme conditions trigger a reduction of the impact of ethical norms in decision making, although awareness of ethicality is retained to a surprising extent.

Analysis of landslide damage caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using strong motion data: A case study in the Beichuan county town

The county town of Beichuan county, China, experienced catastrophic destruction due to landslides induce by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In consideration of the special location of the county town, this paper selected the landslides induced in the town as representative of large-scale near-rupture landslides, and quantitatively analyzed why the landslide damage was so destructive in the town by using strong motion data obtained from the Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmenshan area. Three methods were employed to estimate the landslide damage using strong motion data. (1) Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) on the hanging wall were used to evaluate the PGAs on the landslide sites in the town. The evaluated average PGAs were all greater than 1 g, indicating that the ground motion intensity was very strong during the earthquake. (2) Acceleration time histories, from another station with similar geological conditions to the town, were used to evaluate the critical acceleration changing range, and the estimated values showed the geological conditions were very susceptible to earthquakes. (3) Acceleration time histories, from two stations on the hanging and foot walls of the rupture, and near the town, were used to calculate the Newmark displacements, and all the evaluated displacements indicated that landslides were very likely. The results show that the slopes, susceptible to earthquakes in the Beichuan county town, were easily triggered under such strong ground-motion intensity and developed into large-scale catastrophic events.

A Bioecological Model of Mass Trauma

Biopsychosocial consequences of catastrophic events create an ongoing need for research that examines the effects of mass traumas, developing psychosocial interventions, and advocacy to address the needs of affected individuals, systems, and communities. Because it is neither possible nor necessarily desirable to intervene with all touched by disasters at an individual level, a systems approach that allows conceptualization and response at the individual, family, community, and societal levels seems optimal. Many of the models commonly used in counseling psychology to explain coping with difficult events focus on individual effects and do not adequately capture the complex, multisystemic effects of large-scale catastrophic events and disasters. A bioecological model of mass trauma, which provides a conceptual framework for understanding the effects, intervening in the aftermath, addressing prevention, and researching aspects of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and mass traumas, is presented. Relevant literature and illustrative examples from three categories of mass traumas or catastrophic events (disasters, war, and terrorism or violence) that currently contribute to a persistent atmosphere of stress for many are reviewed using the bioecological model. Recommendations for future research are provided.

Disaster Triage Systems for Large-scale Catastrophic Events

Large-scale catastrophic events typically result in a scarcity of essential medical resources and accordingly necessitate the implementation of triage management policies to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality. Accomplishing this goal requires a reconceptualization of triage as a population-based systemic process that integrates care at all points of interaction between patients and the health care system. This system identifies at minimum 4 orders of contact: first order, the community; second order, prehospital; third order, facility; and fourth order, regional level. Adopting this approach will ensure that disaster response activities will occur in a comprehensive fashion that minimizes the patient care burden at each subsequent order of intervention and reduces the overall need to ration care. The seamless integration of all orders of intervention within this systems-based model of disaster-specific triage, coordinated through health emergency operations centers, can ensure that disaster response measures are undertaken in a manner that is effective, just, and equitable.

PLANNING FOR PERSISTENCE IN MARINE RESERVES: A QUESTION OF CATASTROPHIC IMPORTANCE

Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

An analysis of the delayed response to Hurricane Katrina through the lens of knowledge management

In contrast to many recent large-scale catastrophic events, such as the Turkish earthquake in 1999, the 911 attack in New York in 2001, the Bali Bombing in 2002, and the Asian Tsunami in 2004, the ...

The origin of [formula omitted] fluctuations and scale transformations of time series at nonequilibrium phase transitions

Investigations of the dynamics of heat and mass transfer show that in crisis and transient conditions one can observe high-energy fluctuations with a power spectrum inversely proportional to the frequency (flicker or 1 / f fluctuations). Such a spectrum presupposes energy transient from high to lower frequency modes and the possibility of large-scale catastrophic events in a system. Theory shows that such fluctuations arise in a system owing to the simultaneous progress of interacting phase transitions in the presence of a white noise of sufficient intensity. The distributions functions of fluctuations during scale transformations of a system of stochastic equations describing the 1 / f noise generations have been investigated. It is shown that the Gaussian distributions of a random process with a 1 / f spectrum under a roughness of a scale change to exponential distribution characteristic of the statistics of extreme events. The probability of such events should be taken into account in predicting the stability of different heat transfer regimes.

Catastrophic events in a surface mixed layer

THE formation and evolution of mixed layers in the surface waters of the oceans are important in many fields of study and much effort has been expended towards the development of predictive models of the wind-mixed surface layer1,2. These models parameterise small-scale high-frequency turbulent mixing processes, which are difficult to measure, in terms of more easily observed variables such as the wind stress. Because this parameterisation depends on hypotheses about the character of the turbulent mixing which dominates the transport of heat and momentum, it is vital to have a realistic concept of the turbulent processes in active mixing layers. It is often assumed that a major source of turbulence at the base of the mixed layer is the shear between the mean currents in the mixed layer and those in the thermocline. Simple shear turbulence of this sort often may be described by a flux-gradient relationship3. We have now found that although a flux-gradient description is adequate most of the time at the base of an actively mixing layer, during a storm isolated and relatively rare large-scale catastrophic mixing events, which cannot be described by a flux-gradient relation, can dominate transport. Although these catastrophic events occur infrequently, the vertical heat transport associated with them can dominate the continuous transport associated with flux-gradient processes.