Large-scale Atmospheric Patterns Research Articles

The Contribution of Large-scale Atmospheric Patterns to PM10 Pollution: The New Saharan Oscillation Index

ABSTRACT PM10, an urban air pollutant that originates from both natural and anthropogenic sources (desert dust and industrial and traffic emissions), reduces visibility and threatens human health, particularly in large cities. Casablanca, which exhibits the highest urbanization rate and population density in Morocco, possesses a concentration of industrial units as well as a large vehicle fleet. Marrakech, another of the most populated cities in the country, has also witnessed an increased rate of motorization during the recent years. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the PM10 concentrations in Casablanca and Marrakech (based on daily measurements from 2013 to 2016). First, we assessed the correlations between the concentrations and the climate indexes (the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] and the Mediterranean Oscillation [MO]). Then, we characterized the contribution of large-scale atmospheric patterns related to extreme PM10 events. Finally, we created the Saharan Oscillation Index (SaOI), a climate index for characterizing the oscillation in the country’s southern desert, between the Saharan depression and the Azores High, and calculated its time series. Our results elucidate the relationship between the MO and the average PM10 concentrations, demonstrating that particulate pollution in the study area is partly induced by a northeasterly to southwesterly continental flow that is triggered by the Saharan trough and influenced by the high-pressure area in the north. The significant statistical correlations, mainly found in winter, confirm the relationships between the Saharan Oscillation Index, the average PM10 concentrations and the MO and NAO indexes—and thus the applicability of the SaOI—during this season.

Assessment of Climatology and Predictability of Mid-Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in a High-Atmospheric-Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls over the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, which include the so-called Sandy-like, or westward-curving, tracks, are among the most infrequent landfalls along the U.S. East Coast. However, when these events do occur, the resulting economic and societal consequences can be devastating. A recent example is Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Multimodel ensemble seasonal hindcasts conducted with a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF operational model (Project Minerva) are used here to compile the statistics of these rare events. Minerva hindcasts are found to exhibit skill in reproducing climatological characteristics of the mid-Atlantic TC landfalls particularly at the highest atmospheric horizontal spectral resolution of T1279 (16-km grid spacing). Historical forecasts are further interrogated to identify regional and large-scale environmental conditions associated with these rare TC tracks to better quantify their predictability on synoptic time scales, and their dependence on model resolution. Evolution of the large-scale atmospheric flow patterns leading to mid-Atlantic TC landfalls is analyzed using local finite-amplitude wave activity (LWA). We have identified large-amplitude quasi-stationary features in the LWA and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distributions that persist up to about a week leading to these land-falling events. A statistical model utilizing indices based on the LWA and SST anomalies as predictors is developed that exhibits skill (mostly at T1279) in predicting mid-Atlantic TC landfalls several days in advance. Implications of these results for longer time-scale predictions of mid-Atlantic TC landfalls including climate change projections are discussed.

On the weather types that shape the precipitation patterns across the U.S. Midwest

The U.S. Midwest is an area that has been plagued by heavy and persistent precipitation leading to frequent flood events. The improved understanding of the types of weather conditions and settings associated with heavy precipitation can provide basic information to improve our preparation for and response to these events. Here we identify five weather types from daily 500-hPa geopotential height using the k-means cluster analysis. Consistent with their distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns, these weather types exert different effects on precipitation in the Midwest. Weather type 1 (WT1) features a zonally-aligned wave train propagating from the North Pacific to North America. Overall, WT2 is characterized by a wave train pattern with high (low) pressure in the western (eastern) United States. WT3 features a unique pattern with a high pressure system over the continental United States except for the northwestern United States, similar to the La-Nina forced responses. WT4 is characterized by a wave train moving from the Pacific Northwest to the North Atlantic with a strong ridge over the western United States, while WT5 features a positive geopotential height anomaly originating from the Arctic, probably influenced by the Arctic Amplification. Because of the strong moisture transport, strengthened low-level jet stream and wavy upper-level polar jet stream located in the western United States, among the five weather types WT1 exerts the strongest impacts on precipitation, accounting for up to 40% of the total precipitation over the Midwest, followed by WT5. Moreover, we detect a significant upward trend in the number of WT1 and WT5 events for 1948–2017 and their persistency, suggesting a rising risk of heavy and long-lasting precipitation across the Midwest. Overall, the weather types during summer and winter are consistent with those obtained from the analysis of the entire year, although the weather types during winter have a larger magnitude in the geopotential height anomaly. WT1 accounts for the largest contribution to total precipitation in the Midwest during summer and winter.

Climate changes in the Eastern Mediterranean over the last 5000 years and their links to the high-latitude atmospheric patterns and Asian monsoons

Abstract This research aims to improve the knowledge of the mid to late Holocene climate changes and the underlying drivers in the eastern Mediterranean. We focus on the Peloponnese peninsula, SW Greece, characterized by a W-E rainfall/temperature gradient and a strong climate-sensitivity to shifts in the large-scale atmospheric patterns. A radiocarbon-dated sediment core, taken from the ancient Lake Lerna, a former lake in NE Peloponnese, was analyzed for distribution and hydrogen isotope (δD) composition of n-alkanes and bulk organic geochemistry (δ13C, TOC). The predominantly macrophyte (submerged/floating)-derived δD23 profile exhibits the largest long-term fluctuation in the record and co-varies with δD of long-chain n-alkanes providing evidence for precipitation and temperature changes over the last 5000 years. The Lerna δD23 signal is sometimes in agreement with other n-alkane δD records from SW Peloponnese indicating wetter conditions in the peninsula at ca 5000–4600, ca 4500–4100, ca 3000–2600 (more unstable in SW) and after ca 700 cal BP with drier periods at ca 4100–3900 and ca 1000–700 cal BP. Conversely, a NE-SW climate see-saw is revealed at ca 4600–4500, ca 3200, ca 2600–1800, and ca 1200–1000 cal BP when the δD23 Lerna exhibits more positive trends (drier in NE) with a reversal at ca 3900–3300, ca 3200–3000 and ca 1800–1300 cal BP. These opposing and sometimes similar signals between NE and SW Peloponnese can be explained by the relative dominance of high-latitude atmospheric patterns over the peninsula. A similar signal would be expected when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts the main control with NAO (+) creating conditions of reduced moisture. The dipole pattern is likely driven by shifts in North Sea–Caspian Atmospheric pattern (NCP), which account for the present-day regional climate variability with NCP (+) leading to wetter and colder conditions in NE Peloponnese. The Asian monsoonal system likely has an additional impact on the δD variabilities through influencing the summer temperatures. There is a consistency between the Peloponnesian δD signals and monsoonal records after ca 4000 cal BP confirming the actualistic models. Strong monsoonal periods coincide with cooler summers (lower δD values) in Lerna, due to the northerly winds, the Etesians. On the contrary, SW Peloponnese is dominated by warmer conditions during the same periods as the area is located on the lee side of the mountain and highly influenced by the adiabatic warming associated with the subsidence over the Eastern Mediterranean.

Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific: A Review

ABSTRACT The attempt of this article is to provide a literature review on recent development and progress in seasonal forecasts for tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Since the predictability of seasonal TC activity mainly comes from the slowly-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and the large-scale atmospheric circulation teleconnection patterns, our current understanding on the relationships between the interannual TC variability and tropical SST forcing and variations of various climate modes is first reviewed. It serves as the scientific basis and gives us ideas how predictable the seasonal TC activity is. The main body of the article focuses on an overview of the forecast approaches and methodologies, including statistical and dynamical models and their combination, currently used in seasonal forecasts for TCs over the WNP, and an initial assessment of their prediction skills in the past decade or so. Some outstanding issues, including the intrinsic limitation of predictability due to various uncertainties and the areas for future developments, are also briefly discussed. It is expected that the quality of the scientifically based seasonal TC forecasts would be steadily improved with the advancement in the forecast techniques and the driving of society needs.

On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

Abstract. An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based on forecasted precipitation derived from the Ensemble extended forecast model (ENS) of the ECMWF, and on forecasted monthly occurrence anomalies of weather regimes (MOAWRs), also derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that the MOAWRs approach outperforms the one based on forecasted precipitation in winter in the north-eastern parts of the European continent, where more than 65 % of droughts are detected 1 month in advance. The approach based on forecasted precipitation achieves better performance in predicting drought events in central and eastern Europe in both spring and summer, when the local atmospheric forcing could be the key driver of the precipitation. Sensitivity tests also reveal the challenges in predicting small-scale droughts and drought onsets at longer lead times. Finally, the results show that the ENS model of the ECMWF successfully represents most of the observed linkages between large-scale atmospheric patterns, depicted by the weather regimes and drought events over Europe.

Multi-decadal variability in seasonal mean sea level along the North Sea coast

Abstract. Seasonal deviations from annual-mean sea level in the North Sea region show a large low-frequency component with substantial variability at decadal and multi-decadal timescales. In this study, we quantify low-frequency variability in seasonal deviations from annual-mean sea level and look for drivers of this variability. The amplitude, as well as the temporal evolution of this multi-decadal variability shows substantial variations over the North Sea region, and this spatial pattern is similar to the well-known pattern of the influence of winds and pressure changes on sea level at higher frequencies. The largest low-frequency signals are found in the German Bight and along the Norwegian coast. We find that the variability is much stronger in winter and autumn than in other seasons and that this winter and autumn variability is predominantly driven by wind and sea-level pressure anomalies which are related to large-scale atmospheric patterns. For the spring and summer seasons, this atmospheric forcing explains a smaller fraction of the observed variability. Large-scale atmospheric patterns have been derived from a principal component analysis of sea-level pressure. The first principal component of sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean, which is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explains the largest fraction of winter-mean variability for most stations, while for some stations, the variability consists of a combination of multiple principal components. The low-frequency variability in season-mean sea level can manifest itself as trends in short records of seasonal sea level. For multiple stations around the North Sea, running-mean 40-year trends for autumn and winter sea level often exceed the long-term trends in annual mean sea level, while for spring and summer, the seasonal trends have a similar order of magnitude as the annual-mean trends. Removing the variability explained by atmospheric variability vastly reduces the seasonal trends, especially in winter and autumn.

Relationship between winter orographic precipitation with synoptic and large-scale atmospheric circulation: The case of mount Olympus, Greece

The relationship between the winter (DJFM) precipitation and the atmospheric circulation patterns is examined around Mount Olympus, Greece in order to assess the effects of orography and atmospheric dynamics over a small (less than 100 x 100 km) spatial domain. Winter accumulated rainfall datasets from 8 stations spread along the eastern (marine) and western (continental) sides of the Mount Olympus at elevations between 30 m and 1150 m are used during the period 1981 to 2000. Synoptic scale conditions of mean sea-level pressure and geopotential heights at 850 hPa and 500 hPa, were used to explain the multiyear rainfall variability. High pressure systems dominated over the central Mediterranean and most parts of central Europe during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, are associated with minimum winter rainfall along both sides of Mount Olympus. The winter of 1996 was associated with peak in rainfall along the marine side of the mountain and was characterized by enhancement of upper level trough over the western Mediterranean and increased low tropospheric depressions over the southern Adriatic and the Ionian Seas. This atmospheric circulation pattern facilitated a southeasterly air flow that affected more (less) the marine (continental) sides of the mountain. In contrast, dominance of low pressure systems with cores over the Gulf of Genoa and the Central Mediterranean affect the study area mostly from west/southwest revealing higher correlations with the precipitation in the continental side of the mountain (r= -0.80; Elassona station) and considerably lower correlations with the marine side (r = -0.67; Katerini station). This highlights the orographic barrier of the Mount Olympus revealing large differences between the upward and leeward sides. Large scale atmospheric patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation seem to influence the winter rainfall in the lowlands along the continental side of the mountain.

Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability

We study the influence of interannual climate variability on the economy of several countries in the Sahel region. In the agricultural sector, we are able to identify coupled climate-economic modes that are statistically significant on interannual time scales. In particular, precipitation is a key climatic factor for agriculture in this semi-arid region. Locality and diversity characterize the Sahel's climatic and economic system, with the coupled climate-economic patterns exhibiting substantial differences from country to country. Large-scale atmospheric patterns — like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial oscillatory modes — have quite limited influence on the economies, while more location-specific rainfall patterns play an important role.

Eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate reconstruction over the last 3600 years based on sedimentary n-alkanes, their carbon and hydrogen isotope composition and XRF data from the Gialova Lagoon, SW Greece

Understanding past hydroclimate variability and related drivers is essential to improve climate forecasting capabilities especially in areas with high climatic sensitivity, such as the Mediterranean. This can be achieved by using a broad spectrum of high resolution, multiple proxy records which can also allow us to assess linkages between regional hydroclimate variability and shifts in the large-scale atmospheric patterns. Here, we present a multiproxy reconstruction of the central-eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate changes over the last 3600 years based on a sediment core from the Gialova Lagoon, a shallow coastal ecosystem in SW Peloponnese, Greece. Our combined dataset consists of the distribution and compound-specific carbon and hydrogen isotope (δ13C and δD) composition of n-alkanes, bulk organic matter properties and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning data. This approach was complemented with a semi-quantitative analysis of plant remains in the core. The results indicate a high contribution of local aquatic vegetation to organic matter. Large δ13C variations in predominantly aquatic plant-derived mid-chain alkanes (C23-25) mainly reflect changes in the aquatic plant abundance and their carbon source. Our data suggest that higher δ13C23-25 values (up to −19‰) largely correspond to expansion of aquatic vegetation during wet and/or cold periods causing carbon-limiting conditions in the water and assimilation of isotopically-enriched bicarbonate by the plants. The δD records of the individual n-alkanes (C17 to C31) exhibit a nearly identical pattern to each other, which implies that they all reflect changes in the source water isotope composition, driven by hydroclimate variability. In addition, the δD profiles are consistent with the XRF data with both proxies being driven by a common hydroclimate signal. We observe two major shifts from dry and/or warm periods at ca 3600-3000 cal BP and ca 1700-1300 cal BP to wet and/or cold episodes at ca 3000-2700 cal BP and ca 1300-900 cal BP. The period ca 700-200 cal BP is the wettest and/or coldest in our record and coeval with the Little Ice Age. The climatic fluctuation reported in this study can be explained by the relative dominance of high-latitude (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation during winters) and the low-latitude atmospheric patterns (Intertropical convergence zone, Subtropical High and the effects of Asian monsoons during summers) which suggests an Atlantic-Mediterranean-Monsoon climate link in this area for the late Holocene.

Possible Effect of the Thermal Condition of the Tibetan Plateau on the Interannual Variability of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation

The summer (June–August) Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO), a large-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern, is closely associated with climate anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere. Using the NOAA/CIRES twentieth-century reanalysis, the ECMWF twentieth-century atmospheric reanalysis, and the NCEP reanalysis, this study investigates the variability of the summer APO on the interannual time scale and its relationship with the thermal condition over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results show that the interannual variability of the APO is steadily related to the summer TP surface air temperature during the last 100 years. Observation and simulation further show that a positive heating anomaly over the TP can increase the upper-tropospheric temperature and upward motion over Asia. This anomalous upward flow moves northward in the upper troposphere, and then turns and moves eastward, before finally descending over the mid- to high latitudes of the central-eastern North Pacific, concurrently accompanied by anomalous upward motion over the lower latitudes of the central-eastern North Pacific. The anomalous downward and upward motions over the central-eastern North Pacific reduce the in situ mid- and upper-tropospheric temperature, mainly through modulating condensation latent heat from precipitation and/or dry adiabatic heat, which ultimately leads to the interannual variability of the summer APO. In this process, the zonal vertical circulation over the extratropical Asian–North Pacific sector plays an important bridging role.

Detection of heat and cold waves in Montevergine time series (1884–2015)

Abstract. In recent years, extreme events related to cooling and heating have taken high resonance, motivating the scientific community to carry out an intensive research activity, aimed to detect their variability and frequency. In this work, we have investigated about the frequency, the duration, the severity and the intensity of heat and cold waves in a Southern Italy high-altitude region, by analysing the climatological time series collected in Montevergine observatory. Following the guidelines provided by CLIVAR project (Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability and Change), we have adopted indicators based on percentiles and duration to define a heat wave and cold event. Main results have highlighted a strong and significant positive trend in the last 40 years (1974–2015) in heat waves frequency, severity and intensity. On the contrary, in recent decades, cold wave events have exhibited a significant and positive trend only in intensity. Moreover, through the usage of two Wavelet Analysis tools, the Cross Wavelet Transform and the Wavelet Coherence, we have investigated about the connections between the extreme temperature events occurred in Montevergine and the large-scale atmospheric patterns. The heat wave events have exhibited relevant relationships with the Western European Zonal Circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas the variability of cold wave events have shown linkages with the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern and the North Sea Caspian Pattern. In addition, the main features of synoptic patterns that have caused summer heat waves and winter cold waves in Montevergine site are presented.

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability.

To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.

The Effect of the Dry Line and Convective Initiation on Drought Evolution over Oklahoma during the 2011 Drought

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5° longitude further to the east than climatology. Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) during April and May 2011. Specifically, soil moisture conditions were altered to depict “wet” and “dry” conditions across the domain by replacing the soil moisture values by each soil category’s porosity or wilting point value. Overall, the strength of the dry line boundary, its position, and subsequent CI were dependent on the modification of soil moisture. The simulations demonstrated that modifying soil moisture impacted the nature of the dry line and showed that soil moisture conditions during the first half of the warm season modified the dry line pattern and influenced the evolution and perpetuation of drought over Oklahoma.

A 34-year simulation of wind generation potential for Ireland and the impact of large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns

To study climate-related aspects of power system operation with large volumes of wind generation, data with sufficiently wide temporal and spatial scope are required. The relative youth of the wind industry means that long-term data from real systems are not available. Here, a detailed aggregated wind power generation model is developed for the Republic of Ireland using MERRA reanalysis wind speed data and verified against measured wind production data for the period 2001–2014. The model is most successful in representing aggregate power output in the middle years of this period, after the total installed capacity had reached around 500 MW. Variability on scales of greater than 6 h is captured well by the model; one additional higher resolution wind dataset was found to improve the representation of higher frequency variability. Finally, the model is used to hindcast hypothetical aggregate wind production over the 34-year period 1980–2013, based on existing installed wind capacity. A relationship is found between several of the production characteristics, including capacity factor, ramping and persistence, and two large-scale atmospheric patterns – the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic Pattern.

Future projections of wind resource in a mountainous archipelago, Canary Islands

Large-scale atmospheric patterns and near-surface winds are expected to be modified in the future due to climate change, altering the availability of wind resources on a regional scale. These possible changes are especially important in isolated power systems, as is the case for a great percentage of the islands. High-resolution climate regionalization is therefore necessary to assess the future projections of wind resource, mainly in the case of orographically complex territories, such as The Canary Islands. In this work, WRF was used to perform a dynamic regionalization in this Archipelago, using the pseudo-global warming technique to compute the initial and boundary conditions from a reanalysis dataset and from the monthly mean changes obtained from the simulations of fourteen global climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Projections of mean wind, wind energy density and extractable wind power were obtained for two future decades (2045–2054 and 2090–2099) and for two different greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and the results were compared with those for 1995–2004. Statistically significant changes in wind resource were found in some areas, mainly during summer. Most of these areas correspond to zones where at present wind farms are located.

400 Years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees

Tree rings are natural archives that annually record distinct types of past climate variability depending on the parameters measured. Here, we use ring-width and stable isotopes in cellulose of trees from the northwestern Iberian Peninsula (IP) to understand regional summer hydroclimate over the last 400 years and the associated atmospheric patterns. Correlations between tree rings and climate data demonstrate that isotope signatures in the targeted Iberian pine forests are very sensitive to water availability during the summer period, and are mainly controlled by stomatal conductance. Non-linear methods based on extreme events analysis allow for capturing distinct seasonal climatic variability recorded by tree-ring parameters and asymmetric signals of the associated atmospheric features. Moreover, years with extreme high (low) values in the tree-ring records were characterised by coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with reduced (enhanced) moisture transport onto the northwestern IP. These analyses of extremes revealed that high/low proxy values do not necessarily correspond to mirror images in the atmospheric anomaly patterns, suggesting different drivers of these patterns and the corresponding signature recorded in the proxies. Regional hydroclimate features across the broader IP and western Europe during extreme wet/dry summers detected by the northwestern IP trees compare favourably to independent multicentury sea level pressure and drought reconstructions for Europe. Historical records also validate our findings that attribute non-linear moisture signals recorded by extreme tree-ring values to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns and allow for 400-year reconstructions of the frequency of occurrence of extreme conditions in late spring and summer hydroclimate.

Influences of the atmospheric patterns on unstable climate-growth associations of western Mediterranean forests

Quantifying climate-growth associations is needed to evaluate how forest productivity will respond to climate change. Year-to-year fluctuations in forest productivity and radial growth are partly explained by local climatic conditions driven by large-scale atmospheric patterns. This is illustrated by Iberian forests in the western Mediterranean Basin, which are subjected to complex climatic and atmospheric influences such as Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclogenesis. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the major atmospheric circulation patterns affecting Iberian forests since positive winter NAO phases lead to dry and warm conditions. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) may also explain Iberian forest growth in some areas since this index captures Mediterranean cyclogenesis and WeMO negative phases are linked to warm and wet spring to summer conditions. Here, we analyze the associations between atmospheric patterns, climate and tree growth and we determine if they are changing through time. We use dendrochronology to relate radial growth of four tree species (Pyrenean oak, Sweet chestnut, Maritime pine and Scots pine) growing in western Spain to climate conditions and the NAO and WeMO indices. Winter and early spring temperatures increased since the 1950s in the area whereas the negative association between winter precipitation and the NAO strengthened since then. However, mean temperature rise was particularly evident since the 1970s. Growth was reduced by dry conditions during the growing season (spring and summer), but also by cold and dry conditions during the previous autumn and winter. This explains why the NAO January and the WeMo April indices were negative to growth of three species excluding Pyrenean oak. The early 1970s reflected an inflection point in the instability of climate-growth associations in the study area. We conclude that the winter NAO is a relevant driver of forest growth in the western Iberian Peninsula forests but additional atmospheric patterns (WeMO) also affect, albeit to a minor extent, these forests.

Dendrocronología en bosques neotropicales secos: métodos, avances y aplicaciones

Medivelso, H.A., Camarero, J.J., Gutierrez, E. 2016. Dendrochronology in Neotropical dry forests: methods, advances and applications. Ecosistemas 25(2): 66-75. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2016.25-2.08 Neotropical dry forests (TDFs) are characterized by a dry season which allows some tree species forming annual rings. In TDFs the study of tree rings using dendrochronology involves their identification, dating and measurement. In this way, we gain a retrospective view of tree growth at a temporal scale in agreement with tree longevity. Having a good knowledge of wood anatomy and phenology is necessary to perform dendrochronological studies in TDFs. For instance, most angiosperm tree species which have been studied in TDFs from a dendrochronological point of view present ring boundaries characterized by a band of marginal parenchyma. The information recorded in tree rings has allowed (i) quantifying how growth of TDF trees responds to climatic variables (mainly precipitation) and determining if it is related to large scale atmospheric patterns (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) (dendroclimatology); (ii) reconstructing the dynamics of many TDFs (dendroecology) by improving our knowledge of tree ages and growth rates. Dendroecology will provide forest managers with objective tools to quantify and forecast cutting cycles, making the management of TDFs more sustainable.