Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Systems Research Articles

Changing patterns of the East Asian monsoon drive shifts in migration and abundance of a globally important rice pest.

Numerous insects including pests and beneficial species undertake windborne migrations over hundreds of kilometers. In East Asia, climate-induced changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems are affecting wind-fields and precipitation zones and these, in turn, are changing migration patterns. We examined the consequences in a serious rice pest, the brown planthopper (BPH, Nilaparvata lugens) in East China. BPH cannot overwinter in temperate East Asia, and infestations there are initiated by several waves of windborne spring or summer migrants originating from tropical areas in Indochina. The East Asian summer monsoon, characterized by abundant rainfall and southerly winds, is of critical importance for these northward movements. We analyzed a 42-year dataset of meteorological parameters and catches of BPH from a standardized network of 341 light-traps in South and East China. We show that south of the Yangtze River during summer, southwesterly winds have weakened and rainfall increased, while the summer precipitation has decreased further north on the Jianghuai Plain. Together, these changes have resulted in shorter migratory journeys for BPH leaving South China. As a result, pest outbreaks of BPH in the key rice-growing area of the Lower Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) have declined since 2001. We show that these changes to the East Asian summer monsoon weather parameters are driven by shifts in the position and intensity of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) system that have occurred during the last 20 years. As a result, the relationship between WPSH intensity and BPH immigration that was previously used to predict the size of the immigration to the LYRV has now broken down. Our results demonstrate that migration patterns of a serious rice pest have shifted in response to the climate-induced changes in precipitation and wind pattern, with significant consequences for the population management of migratory pests.

Multiscale variability of streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, China, and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices

Abstract Exploring the relations between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation systems can assist in identifying potentially useful indicators for the modeling of hydrological processes. With the help of ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the wavelet analysis method, this research explored streamflow variations and its links to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices during 1960–2012 in the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR). A steady increasing trend was detected in the streamflow of the source region of Yangtze River (SYR), and a steady decreasing trend was detected in the streamflow of the source region of Lancang River (SLR). The streamflow of the source region of Yellow River (SYeR) had an increasing trend in the early years of the study period and subsequently exhibited a decreasing trend. The Tibetan Plateau monsoon (TPM), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and South Asia monsoon (SAM) are the key factors influencing streamflow changes in the SYR, SYeR, and SLR, respectively. At interannual time-scale variation with the period of about 3–9 years, an antiphase relationship exists between SYR streamflow and TPM indices, while in-phase relationships are detected between SYeR (SLR) streamflow and AO (SAM) indices.

Seasonal cycles of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau detected by Sentinel-1 SAR data

The long-term evolution of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) could be observed from Landsat series of satellite data since the 1970s. However, the seasonal cycles of lakes on the TP have received little attention due to high cloud contamination of the commonly-used optical images. In this study, for the first time, the seasonal cycle of lakes on the TP was detected using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data with a high repeat cycle. A total of approximately 6000 Level-1 scenes were obtained that covered all large lakes (>50 km2) in the study area. The images were extracted from stripmap (SM) and interferometric wide swath (IW) modes that had a pixel spacing of 40 m in the range and azimuth directions. The lake boundaries extracted from Sentinel-1 data using the algorithm developed in this study were in good agreement with in-situ measurements of lake shoreline, lake outlines delineated from the corresponding Landsat images in 2015 and lake levels for Qinghai Lake. Upon analysis, it was found that the seasonal cycles of lakes exhibited drastically different patterns across the TP. For example, large size lakes (>100 km2) reached their peaks in August–September while lakes with areas of 50–100 km2 reached their peaks in early June–July. The peaks of seasonal cycles for endorheic lakes were more pronounced than those for exorheic lakes with flat peaks, and glacier-fed lakes with additional supplies of water exhibited delayed peaks in their seasonal cycles relative to those of non-glacier-fed lakes. Large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, such as the westerlies, Indian summer monsoon, transition in between, and East Asian summer monsoon, were also found to affect the seasonal cycles of lakes. The results of this study suggest that Sentinel-1 SAR data are a powerful tool that can be used to fill gaps in intra-annual lake observations.

2000 years of variability in hydroclimate and carbon accumulation in western Siberia and the relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation: A multi-proxy peat record

The climate of Siberia is primarily influenced by the Siberian High (SH), although other large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, in particular North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) storm tracks, play an important role. How variability in the relative strength and trajectory of these climatic systems has affected local to regional palaeoclimatic conditions remains little known. Here, we employ multi-proxy peat core analysis (δ13C, δ15N in Sphagnum, plant macrofossil, pollen, charcoal) from Plotnikovo Mire, part of the Great Vasyugan Mire in western Siberia (Tomsk province, Russia). We provide a high-resolution record of variations in climatic conditions and the biogeochemical fluxes of carbon and nitrogen over the past 2000 years and then discus the link between local climatic conditions and larger scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Our record shows that generally warm and dry conditions prevailed from BC 500 to 500 CE. Warm and wet episodes occurred during the early (800–950 CE) and later (1150–1300 CE) part of the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and were interrupted by a warm and dry mid-MCA phase (1000–1200 CE). Progressively cooler and wetter conditions established from 1400 CE, which became most marked between 1600 and 1850 CE, coincident with the Little Ice Age (LIA). Finally, drying of the mire surface reflects the warming trend of recent decades. We found that C accumulation was greater (90 g C m−2 yr−1) at times of wetter conditions and when Sphagnum was dominant, and lowest (35 g C m−2 yr−1) during periods of mixed vascular plant growth and Sphagnum under drier/unstable hydrological conditions. This peatland has been an active C sink over the past 1500 years, however, its ability to sequester carbon has decreased with recent warming and may continue to decrease with ongoing climatic warming and drying. We hypothesise that generally warm and moist conditions at the study site and over wider Siberia during the MCA could have been linked to a weakening of the Siberian High, which in turn enhanced the ingress of Atlantic moisture-carrying air masses across Siberia. Conversely, a strengthened SH overlapping negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modes during the LIA, resulted in a longer cold season with a delayed snowmelt and diminished evapotranspiration. This study shows that the interplay of moisture bearing air masses from different origins led to complex local hydroclimate and biogeochemical patterns. However, to resolve the spatio-temporal coherency of such climate variability due to the interaction of different air masses, and therefore better predict future climate changes, a denser network of palaeo-records is needed.

Precipitation evolution of Central Asia during the last 5000 years

Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. However, the number of Holocene climate records is still low in most parts of this region and insufficient to allow detailed discussion and comparisons to disentangle the complex climate history and interplays between the different climatic systems. Here, we present the first stalagmite record from arid Central Asia (south-western Kyrgyzstan) by using δ18O, δ13C, and micro x-ray fluorescence (µXRF)-sulfur data spanning the last 5000 years. The cave hosting stalagmite Uluu-2 is ideally suited to identify past shifts in seasonal variations in precipitation in this part of the world. Comparison of instrumental and paleo-isotopic studies demonstrates that the Uluu-2 speleothem isotope composition faithfully records climate changes and responds to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from mid-latitude Westerlies during the winter/spring season. The reconstructions suggest that the area was characterized by a dry climate from 4700 to 3900 yr BP, interrupted by a wet episode around 4200 yr BP. Further drier conditions also occurred between 4000 and 3500 yr BP. Wetter conditions were re-established at ca. 2500 yr BP, after another dry episode between 3000 and 2500 yr BP. With the exception of two short dry events (1150 and 1300 yr BP), the period after 1700 yr BP shows moderate to wet conditions. Regional comparisons suggest that the strength and position of the Westerly winds control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses.

High-resolution leaf wax carbon and hydrogen isotopic record of the late Holocene paleoclimate in arid Central Asia

Abstract. Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotope-enabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that δ D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax δ D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.

Dominant Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Systems for the Extreme Precipitation over the Western Sichuan Basin in Summer 2013

The western Sichuan Basin (WSB) is a rainstorm center influenced by complicated factors such as topography and circulation. Based on multivariable empirical orthogonal function technique for extreme precipitation processes (EPP) in WSB in 2013, this study reveals the dominant circulation patterns. Results indicate that the leading modes are characterized by “Saddle” and “Sandwich” structures, respectively. In one mode, a TC from the South China Sea (SCS) converts into the inverted trough and steers warm moist airflow northward into the WSB. At the same time, WPSH extends westward over the Yangtze River and conveys a southeasterly warm humid flow. In the other case, WPSH is pushed westward by TC in the Western Pacific and then merges with an anomalous anticyclone over SCS. The anomalous anticyclone and WPSH form a conjunction belt and convey the warm moist southwesterly airflow to meet with the cold flow over the WSB. The configurations of WPSH and TC in the tropic and the blocking and trough in the midhigh latitudes play important roles during the EPPs over the WSB. The persistence of EPPs depends on the long-lived large-scale circulation configuration steady over the suitable positions.

Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate

Some of the earliest unequivocal signs of climate change have been the warming of the air and ocean, thawing of land and melting of ice in the Arctic. But recent studies are showing that the tropics are also changing. Several lines of evidence show that over the past few decades the tropical belt has expanded. This expansion has potentially important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes in the global climate system. Most importantly, poleward movement of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, such as jet streams and storm tracks, could result in shifts in precipitation patterns affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. The implications of the expansion for stratospheric circulation and the distribution of ozone in the atmosphere are as yet poorly understood. The observed recent rate of expansion is greater than climate model projections of expansion over the twenty-first century, which suggests that there is still much to be learned about this aspect of global climate change. The tropical belt has been widening over past decades — as estimated from a number of independent lines of evidence — shifting the dry subtropical climate zones polewards around the world.

Correlations among Charcoal Records of Fires from the Past 16,000 Years in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Central and South America

Microscopic charcoal preserved in lake and swamp sediments from 10 sites in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and from 5 sites in Central and South America have been used to reconstruct long-term fire histories for these two regions. Comparison of these records demonstrates that fire is promoted during periods of rapid climate change and high climate variability, regardless of the presence or absence of humans. Broad synchrony of changes in corrected charcoal values in each region supports an atmospheric transmission of the climate signal via the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulation systems (Walker Circulation) that appears to have persisted since 16,000 cal yr B.P. Altered climate boundary conditions under the influence of changing El Niño-related variability, insolation, sea level, and sea surface temperature all influenced the strength of this connection. Correlation of biomass burning records between the regions tends to increase in the Holocene. The main period of inverse correlation occurs during the Younger Dryas Stade, when extratropical climate most affected the tropics. The strongest correlation between the two regions postdates 5000 cal yr B.P., when El Niño-related variability intensified. Fluctuations in tropical biomass burning are at least partly controlled by orbital forcing (precession), although extratropical climate influences and human activity are also important.

The Possibility of Numerical Nowcasting of Storms

Since L. F. Richardson introduced the concept of numerical weather prediction in 1922, it has become an important part of meteorological services. The operational nurnerical weather prediction of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems has a 30-year history, but precipitation forecasting and nowcasting of meso-scale severe weather remain in its experimental stage, and the advance of their numerical predictions is slow. Theoretical studies indicate that the predictability time lhnit of the convective storm-scale system has several