Large Penetration Research Articles

Feasibility study and thermal process of producing deep-small holes by laser/ultra-high frequency induction hybrid deposition

In this study, a laser/ UHF induction hybrid deposition process with embedding tube for forming deep-small hole method is proposed. The laser and induction powers, as main and auxiliary heat source, are used to melt the metal wire and preheat the objects (the substrate, metal wire and embedded tube), respectively. The critical role of the preheating is to provide a high-temperature zone on the objects which guarantee the effective bonding among the deposited track, substrate and embedded tube. The embedded tube is pre-placed on the substrate outside induction coil and is not irradiated by laser beam, but is wrapped in the deposited track by dripped molten droplet. A numerical model coupled with temperature and electromagnetic fields is developed to investigate the thermal process during hybrid deposition. The thermal process with different combination states of laser and induction heating is numerically investigated to reveal the influence mechanism of the two heat sources on the penetration deposition of the deposited track and the size of molten metal in front of the deposition track. Results show that the laser heat mainly dominates the penetration depth of the deposited track and the size of the molten metal by increasing the temperature of the deposited metal. Criteria for characteristic temperature Tpeak2 is proposed based on the thermal process to avoid excessive temperature and possessing a large penetration depth of deposited track. The experiments demonstrate the process feasibility of the proposed deposited method and verify the reliability of the numerical model.

Battery Energy Storage System for Large Scale Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources

Battery Energy Storage System for Large Scale Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources

The first experience in the treatment of large penetrating wounds of the sclera using expanded primary microsurgical treatment

BACKGROUND: According to the literature, the absence of pattern vision in the outcome of open wounds of the eyeball is observed in 2530% of cases, and in the presence of large wounds with multiple injuries of intraocular structures, it is 6180%.
 AIM: to present the results of expanded microsurgical treatment of large penetrating corneoscleral and scleral wounds involving the zone III, to evaluate the results of the given algorithm for severe penetrating injury care.
 MATERIALS AND METHODS: Presented are the results of treatment of 24 patients with large penetrating corneoscleral and scleral wounds, massive hemophthalmos, and other injuries. All patients underwent primary microsurgical treatment according to a modified, expanded algorithm, which, in addition to suturing the fibrous capsule of the eye, included subtotal vitrectomy, primary treatment of retinal and choroidal wounds, the use of autologous conditioned plasma (P-PRP) , tamponade with silicone oil or a gas-air mixture.
 RESULTS: Evaluation of treatment results was carried out on day 3, after 1 and 6 months. Special attention was paid to the identification of signs of proliferative vitreoretinopathy as most important in terms of prognosis. After 6 months, visual acuity above 0.1 was noted in 10 patients, 0.020.09 in 12, absence of pattern vision in 2. Signs of development and progression of PVR during 6 months were noted in 7 patients (29.2%), of which repeated surgeries were performed in 5 cases.
 CONCLUSIONS: The new advanced algorithm of primary microsurgical treatment allows to improve functional results in severe cases of penetrating eye injury.

Resilience of modern power distribution networks with active coordination of EVs and smart restoration

AbstractIn this modern era of cyber–physical–social systems, there is a need of dynamic coordination strategies for electric vehicles (EVs) to enhance the resilience of modern power distribution networks (MPDNs). This paper proposes a two‐stage EV coordination framework for MPDN smart restoration. The first stage is to introduce a novel proactive EV prepositioning model to optimize planning prior to a rare event, and thereby enhance the MPDN survivability in its immediate aftermath. The second stage involves creating an advanced spatial–temporal EV dispatch model to maximize the number of available EVs for discharging, thereby improving the MPDN recovery after a rare event. The proposed framework also includes an information system to further enhance MPDN resilience by effectively organizing data exchange among intelligent transportation system and smart charging system, and EV users. In addition, a novel bidirectional geographic graph is proposed to optimize travel plans, covering a large penetration of EVs and considering variations in traffic conditions. The effectiveness is assessed on a modified IEEE 123‐node test feeder with real‐world transportation and charging infrastructure. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in MPDN resilience with smart restoration strategies. The validation and sensitivity analyses evidence a significant superiority of the proposed framework.

Silent piling for offshore jacket foundations in sand: DEM and centrifuge modelling

The race to decarbonise the economy has led to an exponential growth of offshore wind farm developments across the globe. While monopiles are the dominating installed foundations, jacket structures are expected to be more and more common, as wind farms extend to deeper waters [1] and innovative technologies are required to alleviate some important challenges. Firstly, straight shafted piles are not particularly efficient to sustain large tensile demand induced by the push-pull axial loading of the foundations. Secondly, stricter regulations on underwater noise make mitigation methods for pile driving more expensive and silent piling techniques could be used as an alternative [2]. Figure 1(a) describes a new screw pile foundation that meets those two challenges [3]. The foundation is installed by rotary jacking, which avoids any impact related noise. The pile is composed of a large upper shaft, that is designed to resist the lateral load applied by the jacket structure, and a smaller lower shaft which reduces the torque demand during installation. A helix is attached close to the pile tip, to provide an enhanced axial resistance and facilitates the installation of the pile [4]. The main challenge during the pile installation is the very low reaction force that may be available offshore at the pile head, which consists only of the pile self-weight and the installation tool. The aim of this work is to demonstrate that screw piles can be installed for offshore applications by rotary jacking at low reaction force, via (geotechnical centrifuge, [2]) and numerical (DEM, [5]) modelling.
 Figure 1(b) compares the vertical installation force measured in the centrifuge with a DEM simulation, as a function of the advancement ratio (AR), defined as the vertical displacement of the pile during one rotation normalised by the helix pitch. Figure 1(b) shows that at constant installation rate (fixed AR), the lower ARs lead to a tensile force measured at the pile head, i.e. the pile pulls on the installation actuator. The DEM simulation of is in good agreement with the centrifuge result at the same AR and shows that the vertical force trend reverts to a compressive value once the upper part of the shaft enters the ground.
 Figure 1(c) shows the vertical force associated with each pile component during the DEM simulation (AR = 0.5). The greatest penetration resistance (lowest negative value) is the transition piece, reaching -4MN, when the pile tip reaches a depth of 25m. The shaft penetration resistance is small and probably reduced by the rotary movement that changes the inclination of the shear stress along the shaft, as explained in previous publications [6]. The base and helix contributions are largely positive (in tension), as described in Figure 1(c). Consequently, the tension (“thrust”) created by the helix compensates the penetration resistance of the rest of the pile and enables its penetration with a very low reaction force applied at the pile head.
 The effect of the AR on the helix behaviour was previously explained as follows [7, 8]. Helix overflighting (AR< 1) forces a displacement of the sand particles upwards. This forced displacement is opposed by the existing soil, which acts as a non-linear spring, which is progressively compressed. The soil above the helix is then compressed, as depicted in Figure 1(d), which represents the vertical stress in the sand bed and around the pile. Another effect of the pile overflighting is the considerable reduction of the vertical stress under the helix, which facilitates the pile penetration. On the contrary, a large compressive stress under the transition piece is at the origin of its large penetration resistance and its geometry may need to be further optimised.
 In the field, where the pile head condition is a constant reaction force, the AR will simply vary such that the thurst provided by the helix will compensate the pile penetration resistance. Results shown in Figure 1(b) prove that there exists a set of AR between 0.10 and 1.00 such that the necessary force is equal to zero at any depth, thus ensuring the fasibility of its installation at low reaction force, providing a torque of 23MNm can be applied.
 The physical and numerical modelling of a new type of pile have shown that it is a viable option to support jacket structures, as it can be installed without driving and with a very limited reaction force. The DEM simulations have revealed the underlying mechanisms explaining the centrifuge results, while centrifuge results were used to validate the DEM simulations. This project showed that the combination of the two techniques is very powerful to speed up technology development.

Numerical simulation of reactive composite jet penetrating concrete target

In order to allow more reactive material to enter the penetration hole when the initiation delay time of reactive material arrives, a double-layered liner structure with inner and outer liners of unequal height is designed. The outer liner is polytetrafluoroethylene/aluminum (PTFE/AL) reactive material, and the inner liner is metal material. The AUTODYN software were used to study the effects of height ratio α of the inner and outer liners and inner liner material on the reactive composite jet forming and penetrating C35 concrete target. The results show that when α varies, the composite liner forms a reactive composite jet composed of different materials at the head. When α is 4/5, the composite jet can both cause a large penetration depth on the target plate and allow more reactive material to enter the penetration hole. When the material of inner liner is titanium, almost all the reactive material follows the metal precursor penetrator into the penetration hole, which can significantly exert the combined damage effect of penetration and demolition.

Simultaneous 3D Construction and Imaging of Plant Cells Using Plasmonic Nanoprobe-Assisted Multimodal Nonlinear Optical Microscopy.

Nonlinear optical (NLO) imaging has emerged as a promising plant cell imaging technique due to its large optical penetration, inherent 3D spatial resolution, and reduced photodamage; exogenous nanoprobes are usually needed for nonsignal target cell analysis. Here, we report in vivo, simultaneous 3D labeling and imaging of potato cell structures using plasmonic nanoprobe-assisted multimodal NLO microscopy. Experimental results show that the complete cell structure can be imaged via the combination of second-harmonic generation (SHG) and two-photon luminescence (TPL) when noble metal silver or gold ions are added. In contrast, without the noble metal ion solution, no NLO signals from the cell wall were acquired. The mechanism can be attributed to noble metal nanoprobes with strong nonlinear optical responses formed along the cell walls via a femtosecond laser scan. During the SHG-TPL imaging process, noble metal ions that crossed the cell wall were rapidly reduced to plasmonic nanoparticles with the fs laser and selectively anchored onto both sides of the cell wall, thereby leading to simultaneous 3D labeling and imaging of the potato cells. Compared with the traditional labeling technique that needs in vitro nanoprobe fabrication and cell labeling, our approach allows for one-step, in vivo labeling of plant cells, thus providing a rapid, cost-effective method for cellular structure construction and imaging.

5-aminolevulinic acid sonodynamic therapy for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

BackgroundThe treatment of deep-invasive cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is difficult. Sonodynamic therapy (SDT) has showed advantages in large penetration depth, small trauma, good repeatability, high targeting selectivity and effective protection for intact structure and function of tissues and organs. ObjectiveTo study the efficacy and safety of 5-aminolevulinic acid SDT (ALA-SDT) in the treatment of cSCC. MethodsThe absorption and transformation of ALA after co-incubation with cSCC were detected by UV–Vis and fluorescence absorption. The production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) when protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) excited with ultrasound was detected by ROS detection probe. Cytotoxicity of ALA-SDT to cSCC was detected with cytotoxicity indicators. The tumor volume changes and tumor weight of mice after ALA-SDT were detected. The effects of ALA-SDT on the growth of mice were evaluated through the changes in body weight of mice. Biosafety of treatment was further evaluated by histopathology to determine whether the tissues and organs of mice were affected after ALA-SDT. ResultsALA can be absorbed and converted into PpIX when incubated with cSCC cells and produces ROS with ultrasound irradiation. ALA-SDT showed a significant cytotoxicity on cSCC cells. With one session of ALA-SDT in vivo, tumor growth was slowed but not stopped and would proceed once treatment was ended. ALA-SDT had no significant effect on body weight changes and major tissues and organs of the mice. Conclusion: ALA-SDT could safely and reduce cSCC cells growth both in vitro and in vivo.

A seismic-reflection-based approach for determining the hydraulic permeability of rocks in a subsurface region

Abstract. The hydraulic permeability of rocks characterizes fluid mobility in the pores of underground reservoirs. Accurate information on this quantity is important for various geotechnology applications with urgent social, environmental and political significance (e.g., the exploration, optimization and monitoring of underground disposals of gases, fluids and radioactive wastes; safe underground engineering operations; and the exploration and development of geothermal and hydrocarbon energy). Because of the high resolution and large penetration range of seismic waves as well as the ability of seismic exploration to operate from the Earth's surface, a seismic-reflection-based method for characterizing underground permeability is very important. The elastic properties of rocks of a given lithology are strongly influenced by the compliant pore space. However, the hydraulic permeability of such rocks can be controlled by compliant pores, stiff pores or both types of pores. Using stress-dependent rock-physics experiments, we derive models of elastic properties (e.g., seismic velocities) as functions of compliant and stiff pore-space geometries. Simultaneously analyzing the stress-dependent behavior of the porosity and of the permeability, we identify which part of the pore space controls the permeability – compliant and/or stiff pore space – and derive a corresponding model. These models are used to directly characterize stiff and compliant pore spaces from seismic velocities and to calculate the underground permeability.

SNR enhanced high-speed two-photon microscopy using a pulse picker and time gating detection

Two-photon microscopy (TPM) is an attractive biomedical imaging method due to its large penetration depth and optical sectioning capability. In particular, label-free autofluorescence imaging offers various advantages for imaging biological samples. However, relatively low intensity of autofluorescence leads to low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), causing practical challenges for imaging biological samples. In this study, we present TPM using a pulse picker to utilize low pulse repetition rate of femtosecond pulsed laser to increase the pulse peak power of the excitation source leading to higher emission of two-photon fluorescence with the same average illumination power. Stronger autofluorescence emission allowed us to obtain higher SNR images of arterial and liver tissues. In addition, by applying the time gating detection method to the pulse signals obtained by TPM, we were able to significantly reduce the background noise of two-photon images. As a result, our TPM system using the pulsed light source with a 19 times lower repetition rate allowed us to obtain the same SNR image more than 19 times faster with the same average power. Although high pulse energy can increase the photobleaching, we also observed that high-speed imaging with low total illumination energy can mitigate the photobleaching effect to a level similar to that of conventional illumination with a high repetition rate. We anticipate that this simple approach will provide guidance for SNR enhancement with high-speed imaging in TPM as well as other nonlinear microscopy.

Integrated Design of Multi-Constrained Snake Maneuver Surge Guidance Control for Hypersonic Vehicles in the Dive Segment

Focusing on the large maneuver penetration of the hypersonic glide vehicle with multiple constraints and uncertain disturbance, a robust integrated guidance and control law, which can achieve the snake-shape maneuver, is designed. A snake-shape maneuver acceleration command, in the framework of sine function, determined by the altitude, target declination of the line of sight and the missile-target distance, is discussed. The integrated guidance and control law includes the terminal guidance law with multiple constraints, attitude control law and angular velocity control law. In the terminal guidance law design, the sliding mode control is adopted while the adaptive technique is applied to estimate the disturbance. The selected sliding mode surface has variable gain determined by the estimated time-to-go. With the designed terminal guidance law, using the snake-shape maneuver acceleration command as the bias item, the angular rate of the line of sight will converge to zero and the line of sight angle will converge to the expected value, simultaneously. The attitude control law and angular velocity control law are designed to track the expected attack and bank angles. The stability of the whole system is proved with the application of the Lyapunov theorem. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed integrated guidance and control law is verified by simulation.

Self-sensing intelligent microrobots for noninvasive and wireless monitoring systems

Microrobots have garnered tremendous attention due to their small size, flexible movement, and potential for various in situ treatments. However, functional modification of microrobots has become crucial for their interaction with the environment, except for precise motion control. Here, a novel artificial intelligence (AI) microrobot is designed that can respond to changes in the external environment without an onboard energy supply and transmit signals wirelessly in real time. The AI microrobot can cooperate with external electromagnetic imaging equipment and enhance the local radiofrequency (RF) magnetic field to achieve a large penetration sensing depth and a high spatial resolution. The working ranges are determined by the structure of the sensor circuit, and the corresponding enhancement effect can be modulated by the conductivity and permittivity of the surrounding environment, reaching ~560 times at most. Under the control of an external magnetic field, the magnetic tail can actuate the microrobotic agent to move accurately, with great potential to realize in situ monitoring in different places in the human body, almost noninvasively, especially around potential diseases, which is of great significance for early disease discovery and accurate diagnosis. In addition, the compatible fabrication process can produce swarms of functional microrobots. The findings highlight the feasibility of the self-sensing AI microrobots for the development of in situ diagnosis or even treatment according to sensing signals.

Modeling Ellipsoidal Block Impacts by an Advanced Rheological Model

In this paper, an advanced rheological model for impacts of ellipsoidal blocks on deformable ground surfaces, introducing the effects of block eccentricity and orientation at impact, is presented. This allows us to assess impact penetration and force, restitution coefficients, and block trajectories. A parametric analysis was carried out by considering different block aspect ratios, impact angles and initial block orientations at impact. The results are presented in terms of restitution coefficients, penetration and force time histories, maximum penetration depth, maximum force and rotational/total kinetic ratios. Impacts along the major block axis, versus those along minor axis, are characterized by larger penetrations (ranging from 3.3 to 50%), shorter impact durations (ca 50%) and very slightly larger vertical forces (ranging from 0.3 to 60%) according to the model parameter used. In contrast, the impact angle is shown to strongly affect maximum penetration and force values, and markedly increase rotation at impact. Analogously, normal restitution coefficient is severely dependent on impact angle, with a variation of more than two orders of magnitude. A mathematical expression for computing the energetic restitution coefficient from the normal and tangential apparent restitution coefficients and the ratio between the rotation and total kinetic energy is proposed. This overcomes the drawback of classical restitution coefficients greater than one when a change in block rotation occurs allowing us to bracket the coefficient of restitutions values to support and improve classical rock fall simulations also highlighting their intrinsic limitations. Finally, the effects of block geometry and initial angular velocity on rockfall simulations were analyzed by implementing the approach in the HyStone simulation code. The simulated frequencies of the maximum height during each ballistic trajectory follow an exponential distribution, whereas those for normal and tangential apparent restitution coefficients follow normal distributions.

Inventory Management Model Integrating Lean and FLD to Increase Service Level in an Automotive Retail: An Empirical Research in Peru

The automotive industry has had large participation in the Peruvian economy, as well as a large market penetration; however, there is not optimal retention of these customers, since there is a knowledge gap regarding loyalty strategies, which could impact the level of service offered. It is essential to have good inventory planning and a good distribution of the workshop to meet agreed dates. Also, correct execution of the service, which integrates quality control to avoid problems attributed to defects. This case study proposes a model that integrates Lean Manufacturing, Facility Layout Design, and ABC inventory management, intending to achieve an improvement in the current service. After the implementation of the model, on-time service was increased by 30.55%, reprocessed vehicles were reduced by 6.50%, labor efficiency was increased by 16.66%, open work orders were reduced by 13.79%, and transfer times were reduced by 20.90%.

Quality Control of Composite parts by robot guided Terahertz imaging

In this work a new approach for in-line quality inspection of drilling holes in glass reinforced fibre composites (GFRP) is presented. The method relies on Terahertz radiation and its large penetration depth in non-conductive materials. By applying THz reflection imaging, 3D information such as interfaces or defects within the sample can be obtained. As a starting point, a laboratory setup based on an industrial THz time-domain spectrometer (TDS) in combination with linear stages for the sample manipulation is built. A software for measurement automatization and data acquisition is developed. Based on measurements performed on drilled GFRP plates, an algorithm highlighting possible defects within the measurement data is developed. The results correlate very well with x-ray tomography (XCT) measurements. Finally, the THz-TDS system is transferred onto an industrial robot and the THz signal synchronized with the position of the robot’s head, expanding the flexibility of the method regarding the applicability to a wide variety of specimen geometries.

An implicit locking‐free B‐spline Material Point Method for large strain geotechnical modelling

AbstractThe Material Point Method (MPM) has drawn great attention in the numerical modelling of large deformation, geotechnical problems. The popularity of MPM is mainly because its formulation shares significant similarities with the Finite Element Method. In MPM, the iteration points can move independently from the mesh, allowing for the resolution of large deformation problems. However, because of this, the original MPM formulation suffers from the well‐known cell‐crossing noise and volumetric‐locking instabilities, resulting in a strongly oscillated stress field. A novel implicit locking‐free B‐spline MPM that controls stress oscillations to a negligible level is proposed in this paper. A novel, but very straightforward B‐spline shape function implementation procedure, avoids the need for a complex material point searching algorithm, providing seamless transformation from the original MPM to this robust B‐spline MPM, aiming at modelling large‐strain geotechnical problems. The newly proposed volumetric locking mitigation strategy is also very easy to implement, which facilitates the reproducibility of this research. The proposed method is validated against three numerical studies: granular column collapse experiment, slope failure and footing with large penetration. The proposed numerical method agrees well with experiments reported in the literature and previous numerical studies. Also, these numerical examples show that the proposed method provides a more prominent stress field than other available methodologies.

A Low-Latency, Low-Jitter Retimer Circuit for PCIe 6.0

As the PCIe 6.0 specification places higher requirements on signal integrity and transmission latency, it becomes especially important to improve signal transmission performance at the physical layer of the transceiver interface. Retimer circuits are a key component of high-speed serial interfaces, and their delay and jitter size directly affect the overall performance of PCIe. For the typical retimer circuit with large-latency and low-jitter performance, this paper proposes a low-latency and low-jitter Retimer circuit based on CDR + PLL architecture for PCIe 6.0, using a jitter-canceling filter circuit to eliminate the frequency difference between the retiming clock and data, reduce the retiming clock jitter, and improve the quality of Retimer output data. The data are sampled using the retiming clock and then output, avoiding the problem of large penetration latency of typical retimer circuits. The circuit is designed using the CMOS 28 nm process. Simulation results show that when 112 Gbps PAM4 data are input to the retimer circuit, the Retimer penetration latency is 27.3 ps, which is 83.5% lower than the typical Retimer structure; the output jitter data are 741 fs, a 31.4% reduction compared to the typical retimer structure.

Influence of the assisted kerf depth on cracks pattern and cutting performance of TBM cutter

Kerfing on the working face of tunnel boring machine (TBM) can reduce the integrity of intact rock mass, it's one of feasible methods to improve the TBM performance. When the TBM cutter cut along the midline of two kerfs, the chipping mechanism changed to the interaction between the cutter and adjacent kerfs, the lateral cracks generated from the cutter tip could propagate to the bottom of adjacent kerfs. To study the effects of kerf depth on the cracks pattern and the cutting performance of the TBM cutter, a series of full-scale linear rock cutting tests were conducted. In addition, conventional cutting tests without kerfs were also performed to make a comparison. The cutter force and rock muck were collected, and the rock samples were sectioned after the tests. The cracks patterns beneath the cutter tip were observed by fluorescent dye. The results show that the dip angle of the lateral cracks increase with the increasing kerf depth, the vertical cracks become shorter and less. Besides, the area of the crushed zone decreases. The required normal force and rolling force are much reduced even for the large cutter penetration compared with the conventional cutting. The cutter forces decrease, while the characteristic grain diameter and coarseness index of the rock muck increase with the increasing kerf depth. The specific energy of kerf-assisted cutting is lower than that of the conventional cutting, and it declines as the kerf depth increases. A critical kerf spacing to depth ratio is found to efficiently reduce the specific energy. The results are useful for the rational parameter design of the kerfing system installed on the new generation TBM. The kerf spacing could be enlarged to save energy if the kerfs are deeper than 12 mm. However, it's still a challenging task to create deep kerfs on site.

Simulation study of the effects of polymer network dynamics and mesh confinement on the diffusion and structural relaxation of penetrants.

The diffusion of small molecular penetrants through polymeric materials represents an important fundamental problem, relevant to the design of materials for applications such as coatings and membranes. Polymer networks hold promise in these applications because dramatic differences in molecular diffusion can result from subtle changes in the network structure. In this paper, we use molecular simulation to understand the role that cross-linked network polymers have in governing the molecular motion of penetrants. By considering the local, activated alpha relaxation time of the penetrant and its long-time diffusive dynamics, we can determine the relative importance of activated glassy dynamics on penetrants at the segmental scale vs entropic mesh confinement on penetrant diffusion. We vary several parameters, such as the cross-linking density, temperature, and penetrant size, to show that cross-links primarily affect molecular diffusion through the modification of the matrix glass transition, with local penetrant hopping at least partially coupled to the segmental relaxation of the polymer network. This coupling is very sensitive to the local activated segmental dynamics of the surrounding matrix, and we also show that penetrant transport is affected by dynamic heterogeneity at low temperatures. To contrast, only at high temperatures and for large penetrants or when the dynamic heterogeneity effect is weak, does the effect of mesh confinement become significant, even though penetrant diffusion more broadly empirically follows similar trends as established models of mesh confinement-based transport.

Probabilistic modelling of seasonal energy demand patterns in the transition from natural gas to hydrogen for an urban energy district

The transition to a low-carbon energy system can be depicted as a “great reconfiguration” from a socio-technical perspective that carries the risk of impact shifts. Electrification with the objective of achieving rapidly deep decarbonisation must be accompanied by effective efficiency and flexibility measures. Hydrogen can be a preferred option in the decarbonisation process where electrification of end-uses is difficult or impractical as well as for long-term storage in energy infrastructure characterised by a large penetration of renewable energy sources. Notwithstanding the current uncertainties regarding costs, environmental impact and the inherent difficulties of increasing rapidly supply capacity, hydrogen can represent a solution to be used in multi-energy systems with combined heat and power (CHP), in particular in urban energy districts. In fact, while achieving carbon savings with natural gas fuelled CHP is not possible when low grid carbon intensity factors are present, it may still be possible to use it to provide flexibility services and to reduce emissions further with switch from natural gas to hydrogen. In this paper, a commercially established urban district energy scheme located in Southampton (United Kingdom) is analysed with the goal of exploring potential variations in its energy demand. The study proposes the use of scalable data-driven methods and probabilistic simulation to generate seasonal energy demand patterns representing the potential short-term and long-term evolution of the energy district.