Large Parts Of Europe Research Articles

A Twin of the Great Lisbon Earthquake (Based on Materials from the Newspaper Sankt-Peterburgskie vedomosti for the 18th Century)

The article generalizes materials on the earthquake of March 31, 1761, which is almost unknown in our scientific discourse, although very significant in its seismological impacts; it can therefore be considered as a twin of the Great Lisbon disaster of November 1, 1755. The 1761 earthquake struck a large part of Europe and, although it did not involve such disastrous consequences as the 1755 Lisbon quake, it significantly changed the seismic regime observed after after the latter. Both earthquakes were followed by tsunamis on the western margins of Europe and the eastern coasts of North America; they also triggered seismic activations of vast, spatially different regions in Western Europe and North Africa. It is possible to associate a number of strongest seismic events in the West Atlantic region with the 1761 earthquake. In the recent research literature on the topic, predominantly by Portuguese authors, the sources of both earthquakes are located in the eastern part of the Azores–Gibraltar Transform Fault. It is of particular interest that the initial data for this article were taken from the newspaper Sankt-Petersburgskie vedomosti for the 18th century and were supplemented with information from historical catalogs and recent foreign papers.

How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change

Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European integrated land use models that utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios but which adopt fundamentally different modelling paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model, and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatially aggregate and disaggregate land use changes and ecosystem service supply levels in food, forest and associated environmental systems. We find that the models produce very different results in some scenarios, with simulated food production varying by up to half of total demand and the extent of intensive agriculture varying by up to 25 % of the EU land area. The agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of land abandonment in large parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios in which economic and other scenario conditions prevent the changes in prices and responses required to approach economic equilibrium. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so it provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel and transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change, particularly given the substantive differences that currently exist in the outcomes of such models.

Ecological Effects of Wolves in Anthropogenic Landscapes: The Potential for Trophic Cascades Is Context-Dependent

In recent years, large predators have made a comeback across large parts of Europe. However, little is known about the impact that recolonizing predators may have on ecosystems with high degrees of anthropogenic influence. In Scandinavia, wolves (Canis lupus) now inhabit areas affected by intense forestry practices and their main prey, moose (Alces alces), are exposed to significant human hunting pressure. We used long-term datasets to investigate whether the return of wolves has affected moose distribution (i.e., presence and abundance) as well as browsing damage (i.e., presence and intensity) by moose on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). We found that the probability of moose presence and abundance increased with time since wolf territory establishment and was higher inside wolf territories than outside. Additionally, the probability of browsing damage was also higher inside wolf territories compared to outside, but wolf occurrence had no effect on browsing damage intensity. We suggest two possible underlying mechanisms behind these results: (1) wolves might select to establish territories in areas with higher moose abundance, increasing their probability of encounters, and/or (2) hunters within wolf territories reduce the number of harvested moose to compensate for wolf predation. This study highlights that the return of large predators to landscapes with strong anthropogenic influence may result in alternative effects than those described in studies on trophic cascades located in protected areas.

Unexpected sensitivity of the highly invasive spider Mermessus trilobatus to soil disturbance in grasslands

The dwarf spider Mermessus trilobatus (Araneae: Linyphiidae), native to North America, has expanded its range over large parts of Europe within less than fifty years. It is notable for occurring in a wide range of mostly agricultural habitats, while most other invasive spiders in Europe are associated with human buildings. As in other invasive invertebrates and plants, the tremendous colonisation success of Mermessus trilobatus might be related to anthropogenic habitat disturbance. Here we aim to test if the invasion success of Mermessus trilobatus in Europe is associated with high tolerance towards soil disturbance. We sampled spiders from eight grasslands experimentally disturbed with superficial soil tillage and eight undisturbed grasslands without tillage. Opposite to our expectation, Mermessus trilobatus densities decrease sharply with soil disturbance. This is in contrast to several native species such as Oedothorax apicatus, which becomes more abundant in the fields after superficial soil tillage. Our study suggests that invasion success of Mermessus trilobatus is not connected to a ruderal strategy. The ecological and evolutionary processes behind colonisation success of Mermessus trilobatus need to be further investigated.

Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018\u20132019 Central European drought under global warming

Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018–2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8.5), we notice a seven-fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 (pm , 5) million ha of cultivated areas being affected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-first century. The occurrence is significantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), suggesting that an effective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutive droughts.

Importance of a vertically tilting structure for energizing the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a prominent mode of atmospheric variability that influences weather and climate, including the occurrence of extreme events, over a large part of Europe and Northeastern America. The NAO has been considered to be maintained primarily by migratory weather disturbances and to have a deep structure with no vertical tilt. A careful inspection nonetheless reveals that the associated anomalies do exhibit a subtle vertical tilt, but its dynamical implications are still unknown. Here we show that this vertical tilt is of vital dynamical significance for the wintertime NAO. We find, using atmospheric reanalysis data, that the tilted anomalies transport heat across the pronounced thermal gradient associated with a background westerly jetstream, advecting air from the cooler North America and Greenland to the warmer Atlantic, thereby acting to reinforce NAO’s thermal anomalies. The resultant conversion of potential energy from the background state is a larger energy source for maintaining the NAO than the feedback from migratory disturbances. Our findings thus uncover a fundamental mechanism of the NAO dynamics, with implications for the improvement of seasonal predictions for the Euro-Atlantic climate and the representation of the NAO variability in climate models.

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) infection in pregnancy: Absence of virus transmission to the fetuses despite severe maternal disease – A case study

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an emerging infectious disease in large parts of Europe and Asia. Whereas other members of the Flaviviridae family can harm fetal development, there are only very few reports on TBE virus (TBEV) infections during pregnancy. Thus, the implications for fetal health remain largely unknown. In this study, we present detailed pre- and postnatal health assessment of three children in the context of severe maternal TBEV infection during pregnancy. Following acute TBEV infection of the mothers, intrauterine growth and development of all children were assessed by repetitive prenatal ultrasound. Postnatal examinations included clinical and virological analyses over a follow-up period of 18 months. Prenatally, no signs of intrauterine growth restrictions were observed. All neonates were delivered at term. Umbilical cord blood of the newborns tested negative for TBEV RNA. Virus-specific IgG antibodies were positive at birth but negative at 9 and 11 months of age. Importantly, IgM antibodies remained negative throughout the period of observation. Taken together, these clinical and virological data strongly suggest that fetal TBEV infection did not occur, despite severe manifestations in the mothers.

Multi-Sensor Observation of a Saharan Dust Outbreak over Transylvania, Romania in April 2019

Mineral aerosols are considered to be the second largest source of natural aerosol, the Saharan desert being the main source of dust at global scale. Under certain meteorological conditions, Saharan dust can be transported over large parts of Europe, including Romania. The aim of this paper is to provide a complex analysis of a Saharan dust outbreak over the Transylvania region of Romania, based on the synergy of multiple ground-based and satellite sensors in order to detect the dust intrusion with a higher degree of certainty. The measurements were performed during the peak of the outbreak on April the 24th 2019, with instruments such as a Cimel sun-photometer and a multi-wavelength Raman depolarization lidar, together with an in-situ particle counter measuring at ground level. Remote sensing data from MODIS sensors on Terra and Aqua were also analyzed. Results show the presence of dust aerosol layers identified by the multi-wavelength Raman and depolarization lidar at altitudes of 2500–4000 m, and 7000 m, respectively. The measured optical and microphysical properties, together with the HYSPLIT back-trajectories, NMMB/BSC dust model, and synoptic analysis, confirm the presence of lofted Saharan dust layers over Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The NMMB/BSC dust model predicted dust load values between 1 and 1.5 g/m2 over Cluj-Napoca at 12:00 UTC for April the 24th 2019. Collocated in-situ PM monitoring showed that dry deposition was low, with PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations similar to the seasonal averages for Cluj-Napoca.

Does winter cold really limit the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Europe?

BackgroundAedes aegypti is a potential vector for several arboviruses including dengue and Zika viruses. The species seems to be restricted to subtropical/tropical habitats and has difficulties in establishing permanent populations in southern Europe, probably due to constraints during the winter season. The aim of this study was to systematically analyze the cold tolerance (CT) of Ae. aegypti in its most cold-resistant life stage, the eggs.MethodsThe CT of Ae. aegypti eggs was compared with that of Ae. albopictus which is well established in large parts of Europe. By systematically studying the literature (meta-analysis), we recognized that CT has been rarely tested in Ae. aegypti eggs, but eggs can survive at zero and sub-zero temperatures for certain exposure periods. To overcome potential bias from experimental differences between studies, we then conducted species comparisons using a harmonized high-resolution CT measuring method. From subtropical populations of the same origin, the survival (hatching in %) and emergence of adults of both species were measured after zero and sub-zero temperature exposures for up to 9 days (3 °C, 0 °C and − 2 °C: ≤ 9 days; − 6 °C: ≤ 2 days).ResultsOur data show that Ae. aegypti eggs can survive low and sub-zero temperatures for a short time period similar to or even better than those of Ae. albopictus. Moreover, after short sub-zero exposures of eggs of both species, individuals still developed into viable adults (Ae. aegypti: 3 adults emerged after 6 days at − 2 °C, Ae. albopictus: 1 adult emerged after 1 day at − 6 °C).ConclusionsThus, both the literature and the present experimental data indicate that a cold winter may not be the preventing factor for the re-establishment of the dengue vector Ae. aegypti in southern Europe.

Escalating environmental summer heat exposure\u2014a future threat for the European workforce

Heat exposure constitutes a major threat for European workers, with significant impacts on the workers’ health and productivity. Climate projections over the next decades show a continuous and accelerated warming over Europe together with longer, more intense and more frequent heatwaves on regional and local scales. In this work, we assess the increased risk in future occupational heat stress levels using the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), an index adopted by the International Standards Organization as regulatory index to measure the heat exposure of working people. Our results show that, in large parts of Europe, future heat exposure will indeed exceed critical levels for physically active humans far more often than in today’s climate, and labour productivity might be largely reduced in southern Europe. European industries should adapt to the projected changes to prevent major consequences for the workers’ health and to preserve economic productivity.

Population genetics of the European rabbit along a rural-to-urban gradient

The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is declining in large parts of Europe but populations in some German cities remained so far unaffected by this decline. The question arises of how urbanization affects patterns of population genetic variation and differentiation in German rabbit populations, as urban habitat fragmentation may result in altered meta-population dynamics. To address this question, we used microsatellite markers to genotype rabbit populations occurring along a rural-to-urban gradient in and around the city of Frankfurt, Germany. We found no effect of urbanization on allelic richness. However, the observed heterozygosity was significantly higher in urban than rural populations and also the inbreeding coefficients were lower, most likely reflecting the small population sizes and possibly on-going loss of genetic diversity in structurally impoverished rural areas. Global FST and G′ST-values suggest moderate but significant differentiation between populations. Multiple matrix regression with randomization ascribed this differentiation to isolation-by-environment rather than isolation-by-distance. Analyses of migration rates revealed asymmetrical gene flow, which was higher from rural into urban populations than vice versa and may again reflect intensified agricultural land-use practices in rural areas. We discuss that populations inhabiting urban areas will likely play an important role in the future distribution of European rabbits.

Competition between Usutu virus and West Nile virus during simultaneous and sequential infection of Culex pipiens mosquitoes

ABSTRACT Usutu virus (USUV) and West Nile virus (WNV) are closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses that are mainly transmitted between bird hosts by vector mosquitoes. Infections in humans are incidental but can cause severe disease. USUV is endemic in large parts of Europe, while WNV mainly circulates in Southern Europe. In recent years, WNV is also frequently detected in Northern Europe, thereby expanding the area where both viruses co-circulate. However, it remains unclear how USUV may affect the future spread of WNV and the likelihood of human co-infection. Here we investigated whether co-infections with both viruses in cell lines and their primary mosquito vector, Culex pipiens, affect virus replication and transmission dynamics. We show that USUV is outcompeted by WNV in mammalian, avian and mosquito cells during co-infection. Mosquitoes that were exposed to both viruses simultaneously via infectious blood meal displayed significantly reduced USUV transmission compared to mosquitoes that were only exposed to USUV (from 15% to 3%), while the infection and transmission of WNV was unaffected. In contrast, when mosquitoes were pre-infected with USUV via infectious blood meal, WNV transmission was significantly reduced (from 44% to 17%). Injection experiments established the involvement of the midgut in the observed USUV-mediated WNV inhibition. The competition between USUV and WNV during co-infection clearly indicates that the chance of concurrent USUV and WNV transmission via a single mosquito bite is low. The competitive relation between USUV and WNV may impact virus transmission dynamics in the field and affect the epidemiology of WNV in Europe.

Intensification of summer precipitation with shorter time-scales in Europe

While daily extreme precipitation intensities increase with global warming on average at approximately the same rate as the availability of water vapor (∼7%/°C), a debated topic is whether sub-daily extremes increase more. Modelling at convection-permitting scales has been deemed necessary to reproduce extreme summer precipitation at local scale. Here we analyze multi-model ensembles and apply a 3 km horizontal resolution model over four regions across Europe (S. Norway, Denmark, Benelux and Albania) and find very good agreement with observed daily and hourly summer precipitation extremes. Projections show that daily extreme precipitation intensifies compared to the mean in all regions and across a wide range of models and resolutions. Hourly and 10 min extremes intensify at a higher rate in nearly all regions. Unlike most recent studies, we do not find sub-daily precipitation extremes increasing much more than 7%/°C, even for sub-hourly extremes, but this may be due to robust summer drying over large parts of Europe. However, the absolute strongest local daily precipitation event in a 20 year period will increase by 10%–20%/°C. At the same time, model projections strongly indicate that summer drying will be more pronounced for extremely dry years.

NMR resonance assignments of the four isoforms of the hazelnut allergen Cor a 1.04

In large parts of Europe, Northern America and China people are suffering from allergies after consuming certain kinds of fruits and vegetables. Typical allergic symptoms range from scratching and itching of the throat to severe symptoms like rhino conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. For hazelnuts (Corylus avellana), these allergies result from initial sensitization to the birch (Betula verrucosa) pollen allergen Bet v 1 and subsequent development of allergic cross-reactions to proteins that are similar in their three-dimensional structure to the sensitizing protein Bet v 1. The cross-reactive proteins in hazelnut are the four isoforms Cor a 1.04 with a molecular weight of about 17.5 kDa. Significant differences regarding the immunologic behavior of these proteins have been reported. In this work we assigned backbone and side chain 1H, 13C, and 15N chemical shifts of these four isoforms, Cor a 1.0401, Cor a 1.0402, Cor a 1.0403, and Cor a 1.0404 by solution NMR spectroscopy. The chemical shift data confirm the characteristic Bet v onefold for all four isoforms, consisting of seven β-strands that are separated by two short α-helices, along with a long C-terminal α-helix. These data provide the basis for a comparative structural and dynamic analysis of these proteins by NMR in order to characterize their different immunologic cross-reactivities on a molecular level.

Analyzing highly uncertain source regions in the Ex-UTLS and their effects on small-scale atmospheric composition using probabilistic retroplume calculations

Forecasts of atmospheric composition in the Ex-UTLS (extratropical upper troposphere – lower stratosphere) are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the source regions of air masses. This study investigates the reliability of calculated source regions and their effects on trace gas distributions in this region. For this purpose, an ensemble-based probabilistic retroplume approach is developed to track source regions of air masses. This approach provides the ability to account for both, (i) the contribution of different source regions to an air mass by adjoint diffusion and (ii) the uncertainty of theses source regions with respect to forecast dynamics. Probabilistic retroplume calculations are applied to an air mass in the vicinity of a weak saddle-point in the Ex-UTLS in order to investigate its effect on source regions. The results indicate high sensitivity of source regions to uncertainties in atmospheric transport revealed by perturbed meteorological forecasts. Additionally considering the sources of surrounding air masses leads to even larger spread of source regions. Spreading over large parts of Europe and altitudes between 8 and 14 km within two days, probable source regions comprise completely opposite transport-directions. This large uncertainty of source regions show significant effect on atmospheric composition in the vicinity of the saddle-point on a short timescale. Evaluating the effect of meteorological uncertainties on local distributions of trace gases, ozone concentrations range from 50 to 350 ppbv at the same location. Probabilistic retroplume calculations suggest a clear connection between these concentrations and related source regions.

Red deer on the move: home range size and mobility in Bulgaria

The red deer is a main game species in Bulgaria, as well as in large parts of Europe. However, its behaviour has not been studied in depth on a local scale, especially on the Balkans. This study presents the first GPS telemetry data for red deer in Bulgaria –in the Central and Eastern Balkan Mountains, the Rhodopi Mountains and the lowlands of North-eastern Bulgaria. 18 individuals (2 subadult stags, 12 adult stags and 4 adult hinds) were tracked, accumulating a total of 1159 (for males) and 1464 (for females) GPS fixes. In spite of the pronounced individual differences, all stags were more mobile (average step length/12 h = 857 m) and had larger home ranges (average HR = 7393 ha) than hinds (average HR = 2085 ha, average step length/12 h = 448 m). Three of the individuals (1 hind and 2 stags) dispersed, forming two distinct home ranges. The results from this study outline the need for detailed studies on the behavior of the species, as a vital part of its management and conservation.

Douglas-fir climate sensitivity at two contrasting sites along the southern limit of the European planting range

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) is an important exotic tree species that was planted across a large part of Europe during the last century. In both experimental trials and conventional forest plantations, the trees grow at a high rate and produce high-quality timber. The present study investigated climate-growth relationships of Douglas-fir at two Italian sites that contrast in climate: a Mediterranean area in southern Italy (Mercurella site) and a cooler, moister site in the northern Apennines without summer aridity (Acquerino). The relationship between tree-ring chronologies and monthly climatic variables was evaluated by a moving average and correlation analysis. Results showed that the minimum temperature in February and in March play a key role for Douglas-fir at both sites, with a positive effect on growth. At the northern site, it is also highly sensitive to late summer temperatures (negative correlation) and spring–summer precipitation (positive correlation). Growth rates in southern latitudes were high even in Europe and in the Mediterranean environment, with low sensitivity to climatic fluctuation. On the basis of our results, further common garden experiments should test adaptation and the interaction between genetics and environment of second- or third-generation seeds from old stands across Europe such as done by the old International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) or the European Douglas-fir Improvement Research Cooperative (EUDIREC) experimentation programmes.

Investigating the Role of the Eurasian Badger (Meles meles) in the Nationwide Distribution of the Western European Hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) in England.

Simple SummaryThe hedgehog is a species known to many in society. What is perhaps less known, is that the hedgehog has been declining across large parts of Europe, including the United Kingdom. Effective hedgehog conservation requires a sound understanding of the causes of the decline. A potential cause is the badger, whose population has been recovering in recent years. The badger is an intraguild predator of the hedgehog, meaning that not only do the two species share the same food, like snails and earthworms, but badgers also predate on hedgehogs. Our study investigates how the presence of hedgehogs is related to the presence of badgers, along with other landscape features. Using information from two nationwide citizen science surveys, we first determine where both species can be found and then identify which factors best explain hedgehog presence. We found that the badger was indeed important, and hedgehogs were less likely to be found in areas where badgers were likely to be found. Interestingly, hedgehogs were also likely to be found in arable land, a habitat not directly thought to be favourable for hedgehogs. Badgers may, therefore, be an important consideration when designing hedgehog conservation plans, and further research of these impacts is needed.Biodiversity is declining globally, which calls for effective conservation measures. It is, therefore, important to investigate the drivers behind species presence at large spatial scales. The Western European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) is one of the species facing declines in parts of its range. Yet, drivers of Western European hedgehog distribution at large spatial scales remain largely unknown. At local scales, the Eurasian badger (Meles meles), an intraguild predator of the Western European hedgehog, can affect both the abundance and the distribution of the latter. However, the Western European hedgehog and the Eurasian badger have shown to be able to co-exist at a landscape scale. We investigated whether the Eurasian badger may play a role in the likelihood of the presence of the Western European hedgehog throughout England by using two nationwide citizen science surveys. Although habitat-related factors explained more variation in the likelihood of Western European hedgehog presence, our results suggest that Eurasian badger presence negatively impacts the likelihood of Western European hedgehog presence. Intraguild predation may, therefore, be influencing the nationwide distribution of hedgehogs in England, and further research is needed about how changes in badger densities and intensifying agricultural practices that remove shelters like hedgerows may influence hedgehog presence.

"This Isn't Just about Things, It's about People and Their Future": A Qualitative Analysis of the Working Conditions and Strains of Social Workers in Refugee and Homeless Aid.

Large parts of Europe have been affected by an influx of refugees and increasing homelessness in recent years. Social workers provide care services for refugees and homeless people, but little is known about their working conditions. The aim of this study was to examine their job demands, resources and health strains. 26 semi-structured interviews were conducted with social workers in refugee and homeless aid in Hamburg and Berlin between October and December 2017. The interviews were analysed following Mayring’s qualitative content analysis. Additionally, the job demands and resources of social workers with and without long-term psychological strain were compared. Respondents particularly experienced demands concerning their job content and work organisation, including emotional and quantitative demands. Appreciation expressed by clients and social support from the team served as key resources. Respondents had problems switching off from work, were exhausted and exhibited signs of long-term psychological strain, such as symptoms of burnout or depressive states. Workers reporting long-term psychological strain were more likely to consider themselves as being adversely constrained by legal requirements and to describe inadequate supervision offers and team conflicts. In conclusion, the results indicate the need for job-specific health promotion measures reducing particularly demands concerning social workers’ job content and work organisation and further strengthening their social support.

Tradability of output and the current account in Europe

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between specialisation in the production of tradable output and the current account balance. According to the ‘tradability hypothesis’ that is examined, countries that specialise in highly tradable sectors tend to run current account surpluses while countries with dominant non-tradable sectors risk running current account deficits. In order to test this hypothesis empirically we develop a value-added based tradability index which captures the tradability of a country’s output. Applied to a large sample of European countries, our empirical model provides strong evidence in favour of the tradability hypothesis. The main policy implication is that the anxieties about ‘de-industrialisation’ in large parts of Europe seem justified with a view to growing external imbalances.