Large Infrastructure Investments Research Articles

Blue\u2013Green Infrastructure for Flood and Water Quality Management in Southeast Asia: Evidence and Knowledge Gaps

In Southeast Asia, projections of rapid urban growth coupled with high water-related risks call for large investments in infrastructure—including in blue–green infrastructure (BGI) such as forests, parks, or vegetated engineered systems. However, most of the knowledge on BGI is produced in the global North, overlooking the diversity of urban contexts globally. Here, we review the literature on BGI for flood risk mitigation and water quality improvement in Southeast Asian cities to understand the scope of practical knowledge and identify research needs. We searched for evidence of local types of BGI in peer-reviewed and grey literature and assessed the performance of BGI based on hydrological, societal, and environmental metrics. The body of literature on BGI in Southeast Asia is small and dominated by wealthier countries but we found evidence of uptake among researchers and practitioners in most countries. Bioretention systems, constructed wetlands, and green cover received the most attention in research. Evidence from modelling and laboratory studies confirmed the potential for BGI to address flooding and water quality issues in the region. However, practical knowledge to mainstream the implementation of BGI remains limited, with insufficient primary hydrological data and information on societal and environmental impacts. In addition, the performance of BGI in combination with grey infrastructure, under climate change, or in informal settlements is poorly studied. Future research and practice should focus on producing and sharing empirical data, ultimately increasing the regional knowledge base to promote efficient BGI strategies.

State of Democracy in Poland versus Environmental Protection

Abstract The paper starts with a review of literature focusing on links between democracy and environmental protection, pointing out a fair weight of scientific evidence that democratic societies on average enjoy a higher level of environmental quality than autocracies. It subsequently provides a quick insight into the recent trends in the state of democracy and the rule of law in Poland as well as a few examples of measures taken concerning environmental policy that have been undertaken after 2015. The paper concludes by expressing concern about certain negative patterns in the Polish environmental policy in the past few years, which seem to be connected to the deficiencies in the rule of law and democracy as observed in Poland. The shrinking space for civil society to participate in democratic governance concerning environmental issues and the excessive appetite of the current government for large infrastructural investments seem to be in contradiction with the European and global strive for sustainable development and tackling climate change. It remains to be seen if the recent negative trends in the Polish environmental policy will have a structural impact on the state of environment in Poland.

Slum infrastructure: Quantitative measures and scenarios for universal access to basic services in 2030

Addressing the “slum challenge” is essential for urban sustainability and the capacity of cities to provide a minimum quality of life to their residents. To present policy-makers with data to inform strategies to improve the lives of marginalized urban residents, this paper reviews quantitative indicators on slum infrastructure, and demonstrates analyses they can facilitate. First, we review 122 studies on slum infrastructure and report frequently assessed quantitative indicators; access to municipal services is among the most prevalent appearing in 25%–50% of the studies. We then assess how these indicators can increase our understanding of slum settlements, analysing access to services in slums vs the remaining urban population for a subset of cities (Sao Paulo, Rio, Lima, Johannesburg, Mumbai, and Hyderabad). Significant gaps exist between the communities, especially when per capita indicators are compared. Finally, we analyse how these indicators can be used to scope the challenges of achieving universal access to basic services (e.g. water, electricity, and water collection) by 2030. The results show that large infrastructure investments or conservation efforts are needed, especially for solid waste collection and water provision in Mumbai and Hyderabad. Additional work is needed to address data gaps to enable informed policy-making.

Transportation and Change through an Anthropological Lens

This paper provides a broad overview of anthropological research on roads and transport as a prelude and context for the other papers in this themed issue. The paper begins with a short historical overview of anthropological approaches to roads and transportation. Then it offers a case study on how roads both facilitated and reflected major socio-economic changes in Methana, Greece, reflecting change in the broader context of Greece society. Next, it describes applied social analysis approaches to the design of roads that emerged from the World Bank and related organizations. Finally, it explores the current flowering of anthropological research on roads, which encompasses technopolitical, political ecology, spatial, and semiotic analyses. A second case study describes efforts to build a “culture” of inclusive road stewardship through a World Bank financed rural roads project in Vietnam. The paper concludes by reflecting on possible future directions for transport anthropology, which offers strategic opportunities to influence large infrastructure investments, transport policy, and anthropological theory.

Subcentres as Destinations: Job Decentralization, Polycentricity, and the Sustainability of Commuting Patterns in Canadian Metropolitan Areas, 1996–2016

Adopting more sustainable modes of transportation and shorter daily commutes remains a fundamental challenge in the struggle for the sustainable transition of cities. While past studies on the sustainability of commuting behaviours partly focused on the place of residence and how the characteristics of commuters or residential neighbourhoods impact sustainable travel, other studies looked at the place of employment to analyze these dynamics. In this study, we investigate the extent to which the recent phase of the rise of peripheral employment has promoted more sustainable travel behaviour, based on the hypothesis that polycentricity has recently favoured a better job–housing balance and co-location. We develop a general typology of employment centres, using Census microdata at fine spatial scale over the 1996–2016 period to observe commuting modes and distances by subcentre types for six major Canadian cities. Our results show that despite recent developments in planning practices—transit-oriented development, transport infrastructure, and changing travel behaviour, the emergence of peripheral subcentres promoted less sustainable commuting patterns in most Canadian metropolitan areas over the period. However, we find sustainable commuting emerging in subcentres where large public transport infrastructure investments have been made, such as in the case of Vancouver’s Millennium and Canada lines. Our study also shows that central business districts (CBDs) and downtown subcentres are becoming relatively more sustainable over the period, which confirms the positive effect of the back-to-the-city movement and changing behaviour toward active transportation in these locations.

Структурні моделі функціоналу інноваційноорієнтованого інфраструктурного державно-приватного партнерства на основі цифрових інновацій

Structural modeling of the innovation-oriented infrastructure PPP functionality is required to determine its important components and objects, the formation of mechanisms to regulate the development of innovation-oriented PPP. It will take place in the following stages:  model description of functionality, strategic guidelines and financial model of innovation-oriented infrastructure PPP based on digital innovations;  transformation of local sectoral innovation-oriented infrastructure PPP into polysectoral. The argumentation of the possibility of transforming a local sectoral innovation-oriented infrastructure PPP into a polysectoral one is demonstrated by the example of a large infrastructure investment project "E-flowers" (PPP "E-flowers"), launched in the field of urban transport as a local sectoral innovation-oriented project. It is proved that the transformation of a local sectoral innovation-oriented infrastructure PPP into a polysectoral one based on the development of digital innovations is effective and cost-effective

Rapid temperature responses of photosystemII efficiency forecast genotypic variation in rice vegetative heat tolerance.

A key target for the improvement of Oryza sativa (rice) is the development of heat-tolerant varieties. This necessitates the development of high-throughput methodologies for the screening of heat tolerance. Progress has been made to this end via visual scoring and chlorophyll fluorescence; however, these approaches demand large infrastructural investments to expose large populations of adult plants to heat stress. To address this bottleneck, we investigated the response of the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystemII (PSII) to rapidly increasing temperatures in excised leaf segments of juvenile rice plants. Segmented models explained the majority of the observed variation in response. Coefficients from these models, i.e. critical temperature (Tcrit ) and the initial response (m1 ), were evaluated for their usability for forecasting adult heat tolerance, measured as the vegetative heat tolerance of adult rice plants through visual (stay-green) and chlorophyll fluorescence (ɸPSII) approaches. We detected substantial variation in heat tolerance of a randomly selected set of indica rice varieties. Both Tcrit and m1 were associated with measured heat tolerance in adult plants, highlighting their usability as high-throughput proxies. Variation in heat tolerance was associated with daytime respiration but not with photosynthetic capacity, highlighting a role for the non-photorespiratory release of CO2 in heat tolerance. To date, this represents the first published instance of genetic variation in these key gas-exchange traits being quantified in response to heat stress in a diverse set of rice accessions. These results outline an efficient strategy for screening heat tolerance and accentuate the need to focus on reduced rates of respiration to improve heat tolerance in rice.

Global Dialysis Perspective: Vietnam.

Vietnam is one of the most populated Southeast Asian countries, with a population of around 97 million people in 2018 (1). Three kinds of RRT, including hemodialysis (HD), peritoneal dialysis (PD), and kidney transplantation, are currently available in Vietnam; they service a total of about 36,000 patients, but this only accounts for about one third of the estimated ESKD population in need of dialysis across the country. The purpose of this article is to give a broad overview of some key aspects of RRT and nephrology in Vietnam. HD has been available in Vietnam since 1968. Initially, it was only used to treat acute kidney failure. During that period, only the Travenol Drake-Willock machine was used. Starting from 1996, with the initiation of the national insurance reimbursement system, a remarkable development in dialysis was seen throughout the country, with the number of patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) steeply increasing. MHD has become the most common type of dialysis and has been available in many Vietnamese cities and provinces since then (2). Although little is known about the actual number of patients with ESKD in need of dialysis in the general population, it is estimated to be >100,000 persons. However, only about one third of them (approximately 30,000 patients) are actually on MHD all over the country. Although this proportion is still very low compared with the estimated demand, all dialysis facilities are frequently overwhelmed and have to operate up to four 4-hour shifts per day; home dialysis is not available yet in Vietnam. All dialyzers are capillary type, mainly low flux, and they are reused six times in total to compensate for the low reimbursement of only $25 per session. We import all dialysis machines and dialyzers from various foreign brands, such as Nipro (Japan), B. Braun, and Fresenius (Germany), …

Fractured fiscal authority and fragmented infrastructures: Financing sustainable urban development in Sub-Saharan Africa

The current global development agendas provide relatively little guidance on how the incredible challenge of sustainable urban development in Africa can and should be financed. This paper makes the case for understanding this development challenge at the nexus of urban governance and city infrastructure. Tracing African urban development trends over the post-colonial period, the paper makes three arguments. First, African cities experience fractured fiscal authority. Decentralization reforms have resulted in contested and complex city governance arrangements. Second, large scale infrastructure investments have been the focus of donors and investors. This has resulted in fragmented networks and systems. Finally, these two processes together have created fertile ground for the emergence of hybrid systems of service delivery in cities. This has implications for both how urban services are governed and their material arrangements. This reality, and the underlying processes which contributed to its production, are under-accounted for within global development discourses. In conclusion, it is crucial that new models of infrastructure finance are developed to respond to the fractured fiscal authority, fragmented infrastructure networks, and hybrid service delivery patterns which characterise African cities.

Large Infrastructure Investments: Financing Mechanisms and Incentives in Decentralised Countries*

AbstractInfrastructure services crucially affect competitiveness and efficiency. They are essential but they usually require important amounts of public funds. In decentralised countries, regional governments cannot usually afford large infrastructure projects, so co‐financing with the central government is required.The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the influence of the central government financing mechanisms on the contract offered by the regional government for the construction, maintenance and operation of the infrastructure. We prove that if the central government uses certain financing mechanisms (total cost coverage), the regional government may have no incentives to offer an efficient contract to the firm.

Comparing Water Use Forecasting Model Selection Criteria: The Case of Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial Sector in Southern California

The United States is one of the largest per capita water withdrawers in the world, and certain parts of it, especially the western region, have long experienced water scarcity. Historically, the U.S. relied on large water infrastructure investments and planning to solve its water scarcity problems. These large-scale investments as well as water planning activities rely on water forecast studies conducted by water managing agencies. These forecasts, while key to the sustainable management of water, are usually done using historical growth extrapolation, conventional econometric approaches, or legacy software packages and often do not utilize methods common in the field of statistical learning. The objective of this study is to illustrate the extent to which forecast outcomes for commercial, institutional and industrial water use may be improved with a relatively simple adjustment to forecast model selection. To do so, we estimate over 352 thousand regression models with retailer level panel data from the largest utility in the U.S., featuring a rich set of variables to model commercial, institutional, and industrial water use in Southern California. Out-of-sample forecasting performances of those models that rank within the top 5% based on various in- and out-of-sample goodness-of-fit criteria were compared. We demonstrate that models with the best in-sample fit yeild, on average, larger forecast errors for out-of-sample forecast exercises and are subject to a significant degree of variation in forecasts. We find that out-of-sample forecast error and the variability in the forecast values can be reduced by an order of magnitude with a relatively straightforward change in the model selection criteria even when the forecast modelers do not have access to “big data” or utilize state-of-the-art machine learning techniques.

St. Lucia

St. Lucia’s near-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by large infrastructure investment and robust tourist inflows. However, longer-term growth continues to be impeded by high public debt, lingering vulnerabilities in the financial system, and structural impediments to private investment. Diminishing policy buffers further weaken the country’s resilience to external shocks against the backdrop of a precarious global outlook.

Impact of a New Metro Line in Amsterdam on Ridership, Travel Times, Reliability and Societal Costs and Benefits

The north-south metro line in Amsterdam became operational in summer 2018, accompanied by changes to the existing bus, metro, and tram network in the city. In this paper we undertake an ex-post analysis of the transportation impacts of the network change. Using two sets of smart card transactions, of 5-6 weeks each, and corresponding Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) data, a before-after comparison is made, concerning ridership, travel times, number of transfers, and travel time reliability. The results show a 4% increase in network wide working day ridership and a strong shift from tram and bus to metro. On an average working day, more than 6,000 hours of travel time is saved. 21% of travellers have more than 1 minute shorter travel time and 13% of travellers have more than 1 minute travel time increase. Furthermore, slightly fewer transfers are made, and the aggregated effect on travel time reliability is marginally positive. For an average working day (7am to 7pm), the resulting daily societal benefits of the new public transport network are approximately €54,200. On a yearly basis the transport related societal benefits are approximately 22 million euros. Doing an ex-post analysis is not common in the literature and in practice, and therefore in a lot of cases the realized benefits of large infrastructural investments remain unknown. This study provides an example of scientific methodology development using multiple data sources, that enables such ex-post evaluations, leading to improvements in public transport assessment and planning.

The tumultuous world of global maritime transportation: a cautionary tale for supply chain managers

The past five years have seen unprecedented changes transform the way goods are moved around the world. The expanded Panama Canal now permits larger vessels as well as simultaneous transits in each direction. Coincidently, steamship lines began purchasing a new generation of bigger ships, forcing ports in the United States to make very large investments in new infrastructure. When examined within the context of other environmental events impacting global trade, the total effect has been to put the maritime industry into a state of flux. This paper will examine these and other important issues before offering conclusions intended to help managers develop successful supply chain strategies in today’s uncertain post-Panamax world.

The Belt and Road turns five

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international trade and development strategy. Launched in 2013, it is one of the ways that China asserts its role in world affairs and captures the opportunities of globalization. The BRI has the potential to enhance development prospects across the world and in China, but that potential might not be realized because the BRI’s objectives are too broad and ill-defined, and its execution is too often non-transparent, lacking in due diligence and uncoordinated. This article documents the background and context of the BRI, recounts what is known about the extent of the initiative and specifies its various motivations. It highlights that the initiative meets very large infrastructure investments gaps, which is welcome and needed, and that China’s goal of forging stronger links with its trading partners around the world are legitimate, so long, of course, as the underlying intent remains peaceful. Though many observers welcome the BRI, many others oppose it for good reasons, while others misunderstand it and oppose it for bad reasons. The paper identifies and discusses concerns about the initiative that relate to its geopolitical objectives, its priorities, its geographic scope, the role of state-owned enterprises, the allocation of resources, issues of transparency and of due diligence. Particularly, it shows that this initiative deals with a vast number of countries that are in very different states of development and that an apparent lack of well-defined priorities is holding the initiative back. The paper also highlights the issue of debt overload which is distressing several BRI countries and discourages further projects. It points briefly to possible improvements that China and the other stakeholders in the BRI can make to get the most out of their investments. The BRI, to be effective, needs to meet the basic conditions of a trade and development strategy, which are clear objectives, adequate resources, selectivity, a workable implementation plan, due diligence and clear communication. Involvement of multilateral lenders could help with this. Finally, China has to improve the evaluation of project’s risks and costs and step up its due diligence approach to demonstrate that it respects the long-term interests of those countries that are at the receiving end of its BRI projects.

Governance regimes for large transport infrastructure investment projects: Comparative analysis of Norway and Sweden

The two Nordic countries Norway and Sweden have launched governance regimes for the early phases of transport infrastructure investments after experiencing frequent cost overruns and low cost-benefit ratios. This study seeks to find out if these governance regimes have reduced the escalation of costs from early estimates to finalized projects and influenced the choice of projects away from those with lower benefit to cost ratios. We have compared governance regimes for major transport infrastructure investments in the two countries and examined the development and content of quality assurance activities, the involvement of internal and external parties, their duties and responsibilities, their stage gate models, and how decisions are made. The findings are that both countries have introduced formalizations of their governance regimes that mandate project reviews during the planning process and quality assurance, both of which have increased early cost estimates. One difference was that in Norway, the Ministry of Finance manages the quality assurance scheme and imposes external quality assurance requirements, while Sweden has no corresponding ministerial oversight. Therefore, on the one hand, the process is more strictly formalized in Norway, but on the other hand, cost-benefit ratios appear to have more weight in Sweden. Furthermore, although both countries have done several ex post evaluations, neither country has introduced a formalized ex post evaluation process allowing for systematic examination of the causes of cost overruns and low benefit to cost ratios. Even so, politicians may manoeuvre projects with lower benefit to cost ratios around the governance systems in both countries. Finally, some projects in both countries still have experienced significant cost escalations despite these processes.

Infrastructure and Finance: Evidence from India's GQ Highway Network

This paper uses the construction of India's Golden Quadrangle central highway network, together with comprehensive loan data from the Reserve Bank of India, to investigate the interaction between infrastructure development and financial sector depth. The paper identifies a disproportionate increase in loan count and average loan size in districts along the Golden Quadrangle highway network, using stringent specifications with industry and district fixed effects. The results hold in straight-line instrumental variable frameworks and are not present in placebo tests with another highway that was planned to be upgraded at the same time as Golden Quadrangle but subsequently delayed. Importantly, however, the results are concentrated in districts with stronger initial financial development, suggesting that although financing responds to large infrastructure investments and helps spur real economic outcomes, initial financial sector development might play an important role in determining where real activity will grow.

Building Africa’s Infrastructure: Reinstating History in Infrastructure Debates

Infrastructure has gone from being yesterday's news to a focal point of development cooperation, particularly in Africa. While the list of development challenges that infrastructure is assumed to improve keeps expanding, projects are simultaneously criticised for not yielding the expected broader development effects. What is it about infrastructure that holds such high promises of development? Has this changed between the post-independence period of large infrastructure investments in Africa and the investment boom currently underway – and if so, how? In this article, I examine the differences between how infrastructure investments are understood and implemented in this most recent turn, as compared to some decades ago. I find a similar development focus between the two periods, with a strong concentration around economic growth. Moreover, little has changed in project focus, despite a more diverse set of actors on board with the ‘infrastructure-induced development’ narrative. I use inter-boom processes to explain why the challenges related to weak capacities in domestic construction sectors have continued. The analysis further shows how infrastructure investment has taken centre stage because it manages to satisfy the interests of a range of different actors.

Ethiopia's Downgrade to High Risk of Debt Distress: A Policy Framework for the Government

Ethiopia was downgraded to high risk of debt distress in January 2018 based on the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), a finding reaffirmed by the updated 2017 Review of the LIC DSF, which was rolled out in the second half of 2018. This finding illustrates the shortcomings of the LIC DSF, which were supposed to have been addressed by the 2017 Review. The fundamental problem is a continued myopic focus on debt distress in relation to external public debt. In Ethiopia’s case — as with most LICs — external debt distress is a symptom of unsustainable public debt dynamics driven by high fiscal deficits that spill over into current account deficits and external debt. Ignoring this fundamental causation results in basic development questions being left off the table. For Ethiopia, these questions include: (a) What would the government’s debt dynamics look like in the absence of financial repression and overvalued exchange rates, both of which need to be corrected in order to improve the private investment climate as the Government prepares to hand off the growth baton to the private sector? And (b) will the large public investments in infrastructure pay off in terms of future growth and taxes in order to ensure fiscal solvency? The Government of Ethiopia needs answers to these questions as it implements its growth strategy and pursues its dialogue with donors and the private sector.

The evaluation of large cycling infrastructure investments in Glasgow using crowdsourced cycle data

The benefits of cycling have been well established for several decades. It can improve public health and make cities more active and environmentally friendly. Due to the significant net benefits, many local governments in Scotland have promoted cycling. Glasgow City Council constructed four significant pieces of cycling infrastructure between 2013 and 2015, partly in preparation for the 2014 Commonwealth Games and partly to encourage cycling more generally. This required substantial capital investment. However, the effectiveness of these big new infrastructure investments has not been well examined, mostly due to data limitations. In this study, we utilised data from the activity tracking app Strava for the years 2013–2016 and fixed effects panel data regression models to examine whether the new cycling infrastructure has increased cycling volumes on these routes. Our results show that three of the infrastructure projects have a positive effect on the monthly total volume of cycling trips made by users of the app, with flows up by around 12% to 18%. Although this result is promising, it needs to be interpreted with care due to the characteristics of the data.