Large Inflows Research Articles

Real exchange rates and remittance inflows in Jamaica

Large remittance inflows (remittances) can have several positive economic impacts, but they can also lead to real exchange rate appreciation and a loss of international competitiveness for recipient countries, or the Dutch disease effect of remittances. Using Jamaican data from 1977 to 2019, we test for the existence of this effect. After applying autoregressive bounds and Granger causality testing, we arrive at three findings. First, there is a long run cointegrating relationship running from remittances to the real exchange rate, where 64% of any perturbation from this relationship is corrected within one year. Second, we find that a 1% increase in remittances leads to a 0.53% appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long run. The Dutch disease effect exists in Jamaica. Third, consistent with the long run results, we find that remittances Granger cause the real exchange rate in the short run. An important policy implication of our findings is that the Jamaican government should channelize remittances to capital investment in the tradeable sector, while focusing on improving trade competitiveness to compensate for the deterioration of the country's terms of trade due to remittances’ impact on the real exchange rate.

Wind speed reconstruction from three synchronized short-range WindScanner lidars in a large wind turbine inflow field campaign and the associated uncertainties

Modern large wind turbines require high-resolution wind measurements as input to aerodynamic and aeroelastic simulations for modelling and validation purposes. Within the HighRe project, we aim at studying the aerodynamic effects at high Reynolds numbers by measuring four-dimensional wind fields (vx ,vy ,vz ,t) using three short-range WindScanners (SRWS). The systems were set up at the test site in Bremerhaven (Testfeld BHV) to perform an inflow wind field measurement campaign. In order to get a better understanding of the measurements, we describe the propagation of uncertainties in SRWS parameters to the measured wind field and propose an uncertainty model for a measurement setup with three SRWS lidars. In this study, we first evaluate the wind reconstruction and derive an uncertainty model for the wind components vx , vy , and vz , which are mainly dependent on the input parameters, e.g., focus range, elevation angle, and azimuth angle. The effective intersection diameter at the intersection of three beams was found to be in the order of 2-5m. As expected, a high uncertainty was observed at lower heights in the vz -component due to low elevation angles. This uncertainty evaluation forms the basis for comparing scanning patterns with regard to their accuracy in providing four-dimensional measurements.

Redressing urban isolation: A multi-city case study in India

Urbanization has brought in expeditious changing world trends from dispersed rural settlements to denser urban centers. Higher frequent economic activities have attracted a large in-flow of job seekers, migrant laborers, and foreign investors to urban centers, furthering the complexity. Contrary to beliefs, urban demography has not brought people together; instead, it has created a new concern, Urban Isolation. The paper tries to explain issues related to urban isolation from examples of cities experiencing it. Results from a survey to determine factors leading to urban isolation for three major cities in India, namely, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Kochi, are also presented. The study includes sensitivity analysis using ANOVA for gender, age group, and household sizes. Factor analysis resulted in two prominent factors, “Sociability” and “Acceptability.” The paper provides probable solutions to counter the adverse effects of Urban Isolation. The findings from this study may be highly demographic-centric, catering to the Indian scenario.

Analyzing Active Fund Managers’ Commitment to ESG: Evidence from the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment

The United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) is the largest global environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiative in the asset-management industry to date. We analyze what happens after active U.S. mutual funds sign the PRI to assess whether they exhibit ESG implementation. We find that PRI signatories attract a large fund inflow, but we do not observe improvements in fund-level ESG scores or fund returns. We consider a battery of ways to proxy for funds’ ESG incorporation (e.g., entry/exit, screening, engagement, voting for pro-ESG proposals), but fail to observe evidence of meaningful on average follow-through. Next, we explore cross-sectional fund characteristics and find that only quant funds exhibit small improvements in ESG performance versus other funds, mainly through buying high-ESG-performing stocks. Furthermore, we note that signatories are not superior performers in ESG issues prior to joining the PRI relative to non-PRI funds, but PRI affiliation tends to be widely advertised on company websites, marketing materials, and fund documents. Overall, a reasonable reader may perceive our findings as consistent with PRI funds’ greenwashing. We note, however, that what we uncover is based only on outcome-based measures and may miss some actual efforts of signatories. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4394 .

Evaluation of the global-blockage effect on power performance through simulations and measurements

Abstract. Blockage effects due to the interaction of five wind turbines in a row are investigated through both Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations and site measurements. Since power performance tests are often carried out at sites consisting of several turbines in a row, the objective of this study is to evaluate whether the power performance of the five turbines differs from that of an isolated turbine. A number of simulations are performed, in which we vary the turbine inter-spacing (1.8, 2 and 3 rotor diameters) and the inflow angle between the incoming wind and the orthogonal line to the row (from 0 to 45∘). Different values of the free-stream velocity are considered to cover a broad wind speed range of the power curve. Numerical results show consistent power deviations for all five turbines when compared to the isolated case. The amplitude of these deviations depends on the location of the turbine within the row, the inflow angle, the inter-spacing and the power curve region of operation. We show that the power variations do not cancel out when averaging over a large inflow sector (from −45 to +45∘) and find an increase in the power output of up to +1 % when compared to the isolated case under idealised conditions (neutral atmospheric conditions, no vertical wind shear or ground effects). We simulate power performance “measurements” with both a virtual mast and nacelle-mounted lidar and find a combination of power output increase and upstream velocity reduction, which causes an increase of +4 % in the power coefficient under idealised conditions. We also use measurements from a real site consisting of a row of five wind turbines to validate the numerical results. From the analysis of the measurements, we also show that the power performance is impacted by the neighbouring turbines. Compared to when the inflow is perpendicular to the row, the power output varies by +1.8 % and −1.8 % when the turbine is the most downwind and upwind of the line, respectively.

New and Emerging Targeted Therapies for Hidradenitis Suppurativa.

Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a chronic, recurrent, inflammatory skin disease deriving from the hair follicles. The formation of inflammatory nodules, abscesses, fistulas, and sinus tracts is characterized by a large inflow of key pro-inflammatory mediators, such as IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-1, IL-17, and IL-12/23. Adalimumab is currently the only Food and Drug Administration (FDA)- and European Medicines Agency (EMA)-approved biologic therapy for moderate to severe HS in adults and adolescents. However, the long-term effectiveness of this TNF-α inhibitor in HS patients has shown to be highly variable. This review aims to review the evidence for emerging therapies that target the main pro-inflammatory cytokines in HS pathogenesis. A review of the literature was conducted, using the PubMed and Google Scholar repositories, as well as Clinicaltrials.gov. Presently, the most promising biologics in phase III trials are anti-IL-17 antibodies, secukinumab, and bimekizumab. Furthermore, an anti-IL-1 biologic, bermekimab, is currently in phase II trials, and shows encouraging results. Overall, the clinical efficacies of all new targeted therapies published up to this point are limited. More studies need to be performed to clarify the precise molecular pathology, and assess the efficacy of biological therapies for HS.

Large postoperative inflow area predictive of recurrence for paraclinoid aneurysms treated by simple coiling

ObjectivesThis study aims to investigate recurrence risk factors of simply coiled unruptured paraclinoid aneurysms based on a porous medium model (POM). MethodsTwenty unruptured coiled paraclinoid aneurysms with digital subtract angiography (DSA) follow-up were enrolled to analyze morphological and hemodynamic variables to predict recurrence. ResultsRecurrent aneurysms have larger neck areas than stable aneurysms (34.43 ± 21.46 mm2 vs. 16.12 ± 7.10 mm2; p = 0.048). For hemodynamic variables, recurrent aneurysms had larger preoperative (16.40 ± 11.38 mm2 vs. 7.87 ± 3.75 mm2; p = 0.048) and postoperative inflow areas (14.07 ± 6.80 mm2 versus 6.73 ± 4.20 mm2; p = 0.021) than the stable group. Only the postoperative inflow area (p = 0.031, OR = 1.289; 95% CI 1.024–1.624) was an independent predictor of recurrence after multivariate regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis efficiently predicted recurrence (AUC = 0.833, p = 0.021) with an inflow area cutoff value (9.15 mm2; sensitivity, 0.833; specificity, 0.857). ConclusionsNeck area along with pre- and postoperative inflow areas were associated with aneurysm recurrence. These findings suggest that a large postoperative inflow area independently predicts the recurrence of coiled paraclinoid aneurysms.

Black tsunamis and naked singularities in AdS

We study the evolution of the Gregory-Laflamme instability for black strings in global AdS spacetime, and investigate the CFT dual of the formation of a bulk naked singularity. Using an effective theory in the large D limit, we uncover a rich variety of dynamical behaviour, depending on the thickness of the string and on initial perturbations. These include: large inflows of horizon generators from the asymptotic boundary (a ‘black tsunami’); a pinch-off of the horizon that likely reveals a naked singularity; and competition between these two behaviours, such as a nakedly singular pinch-off that subsequently gets covered by a black tsunami. The holographic dual describes different patterns of heat flow due to the Hawking radiation of two black holes placed at the antipodes of a spherical universe. We also present a model that describes, in any D, the burst in the holographic stress-energy tensor when the signal from a bulk self-similar naked singularity reaches the boundary. The model shows that the shear components of the boundary stress diverge in finite time, while the energy density and pressures from the burst vanish.

Property Price, Capital Inflows, and Financial System Stability in ASEAN-5 Economies: A Simultaneous Analysis

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study aims to estimate the impact of capital inflows on property prices and financial system stability (FSS) in ASEAN-5 and the simultaneous relationship between the two dependent variables. During the observation period of this study, there were large capital inflows to ASEAN 5 countries after the 2008-2009 financial crisis; on the other hand property prices showed an increase in that period. Background Problems: This study indicates the simul­taneous relationship between two dependent variables. In fact, using only a single equation for variables that have a simultaneous relationship can cause endogeneity problems, so the results obtained become unreliable/ biased. Novelty: The novelty of our research is we fill a gap in the previous studies by examining the relationship of property prices and financial system stability with the simultaneous method so as to solve the endogeneity problem that exists. Research Methods: We use the 2SLS simultaneous panel model to solve endogeneity problems. Finding/ Results: The results show that the massive capital inflows to ASEAN-5 countries caused a significant increase in property prices. Conclusion: This study confirms that property prices and financial system stability have simultaneous relationships. On the one hand, the impact of property prices on the financial system stability is positive and significant. On the other hand, testing the effect of the financial system stability on property prices does not show significant results.

Development of effective pre-release method for dams during super typhoons using long-term ensemble rainfall forecasts

Against the background of increasing frequency of heavy rainfall due to climate change, an analytical approach to maximize the effective use of the reservoir from both flood control and water utilization was conducted. Simulations by applying statistical down-scaling method to the long-term ensemble rainfall forecast by ECMWF on a dam basin where a large inflow occurred during the Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 were shown. The results show that it is possible to use long-term ensemble rainfall forecasts to gain a temporal, stochastic understanding of total rainfall, required flood storage volumes, and recoverable reserves. Based on this understanding, a calculation method for setting release rates that correspond to effective pre-release start times and changes in rainfall forecasts in order to minimize both flood control and water service risks was proposed.

Immigrant Supply of Marketable Child Care and Native Fertility in Italy

The availability of child-care services has often been advocated as one of the instruments to counter the fertility decline observed in many high-income countries. In the recent past large inflows of lowskilled migrants have substantially increased the supply of child-care services. In this paper we examine if the flow of immigrants as actually affected fertility exploiting the natural experiment occurred in Italy in 2007, when a large inflow of migrants - many of them specialized in the supply of child care - arrived unexpectedly. With a difference-in-differences method, we show that newly arrived immigrant female workers have increased the number of native births by roughly 2 per cent. We validate our result by the implementation of an instrumental variable approach and several robustness tests, all concluding that the increase in the supply of child-care services by immigrants has positively affected native fertility choice.

The role of refugees in the underground economy of the European Union

AbstractThis paper explores the impact of refugees on the size of the underground economy in 28 European Union countries over the period from 1998 to 2017. It applies a nonlinear methodology by employing dynamic panel threshold estimations. The main findings uncover a nonlinear connection between refugees and the informal economy with an inverted V-shape and a different magnitude of effects depending on the share of the refugee population. The underground economy is stimulated at a low level of refugee inflows (where immigrants make up <0.572% of the total population). Large inflows compress the underground economy, which increases competition in the labor market based on lower labor costs. Economic growth and international trade play a crucial role in reducing the size of the informal economy. Equally importantly, coherent unemployment policy and adequate regulation of illegal immigrants support this process.

Characterization of atmospheric coherent structures and their impact on a utility-scale wind turbine

Atmospheric turbulent velocity fluctuations are known to increase wind turbine structural loading and accelerate wake recovery, but the impact of vortical coherent structures in the atmosphere on wind turbines has not yet been evaluated. The current study uses flow imaging with natural snowfall with a field of view spanning the inflow and near wake. Vortical coherent structures with diameters of the order of 1 m are identified and characterized in the flow approaching a 2.5 MW wind turbine in the region spanning the bottom blade tip elevation to hub height. Their impact on turbine structural loading, power generation and wake behaviour are evaluated. Long coherent structure packets $(\mathrm{\ \mathbin{\lower.3ex\hbox{$\buildrel> \over {\smash{\scriptstyle\sim}\vphantom{_x}}$}}\ }200\;\textrm{m)}$ are shown to increase fluctuating stresses on the turbine support tower. Large inflow vortices interact with the turbine blades, leading to deviations from the expected power generation. The sign of these deviations is related to the rotation direction of the vortices, with rotation in the same direction as the circulation on the blades leading to periods of power surplus, and the opposite rotation causing power deficit. Periods of power deficit coincide with wake contraction events. These findings highlight the importance of considering coherent structure properties when making turbine design and siting decisions.

Evaluating grain virtual water flow in China: Patterns and drivers from a socio-hydrology perspective

To ensure regional grain security, the grain is transferred from grain surplus provinces to grain deficient provinces in China, then water embedded in grain (virtual water) flows accordingly, which promotes the spatial redistribution of water resources. To explore the influencing factors of virtual water flow, this study first obtained the inter-provincial virtual water flow pattern, and then constructed a virtual water flow trade gravity model based on socio-hydrology theory and estimated the model with multiple regression methods. And the impulse response function was used to analyze the response trajectory of virtual water flow under the shock of other endogenous variable fluctuation. The results show that from 1997 to 2014, the quantity of inter-provincial grain virtual water flow increased from 73 billion m3to 124.64 billion m3. The positive driving effect of the population and per capita GDP in virtual water inflow areas is significant, and the negative suppression effect of the grain output per unit in inflow-areas and the population in outflow-areas is significant. Heilongjiang is the province with the largest outflow of virtual water, and the outflow is more sensitive to the shock of local per capita water resources fluctuation. Guangdong is the province with the largest inflow, and the inflow is more sensitive to the local per capita GDP fluctuation. Chinese Mainland’s grain virtual water flow pattern and trend will continue to exist in the future. In addition to the endowment of water resources, social and economic factors also need to be considered during the process of water resources management.

Segment power analysis of collegiate softball hitting

ABSTRACT The primary aim of this investigation was to describe the energy flow through the kinetic chain during softball hitting using a segmental power analysis. Twenty-three NCAA Division I collegiate softball athletes (20.4 ± 1.7 yr; 166.7 ± 22.0 cm; 74.9 ± 15.9 kg) performed three maximum effort swings off a stationary tee placed in the middle of the strike zone. Pelvis, trunk, humerus, forearm and hand segment powers were integrated across four phases of the softball swing (load, stride, acceleration, and follow-through). The load and stride phases had low segment energy inflow and outflow values as well as net segment energy flow for all body segments compared to subsequent phases of the swing. The acceleration phase showed large trunk inflow values relative to the pelvis. There was also descriptively larger front compared to back-side upper extremity inflow. Finally, the follow-through phase showed primarily energy outflow for the upper extremity segments likely attributed to slowing down rotation.

Refugee Inflow and Labor Market Outcomes in Brazil: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus

AbstractThe impact of a large influx of refugees (or migrants) on the local labor market has long been an important topic among economists. In this study, we investigate the economic impact of the Venezuelan migrant inflow on labor market outcomes in Brazil. We employ the synthetic control method to exploit the concentration of a large inflow of Venezuelans in the Brazilian state of Roraima, which shares a land border with Venezuela. Results indicate that the inflow of Venezuelan refugees lowered labor force participation and employment rate but did not have a significant impact on hourly wages in Brazil. Our estimates show that labor force participation among less educated individuals decreased by a larger magnitude, while females lost jobs in informal and self‐employed sectors. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the short‐term economic consequences of hosting refugees in developing countries.

Simulations on the rheology of dry magneto-rheological fluid under various working modes

This work studied the rheological properties and magnetorheological (MR) mechanism of dry magnetorheological fluid (MRF) under various working modes. A novel simulation method combining the discrete element method and computational fluid dynamics was developed, in which the bilateral coupling between particles and the flow field of the matrix (air) was considered. The microstructures and mechanical properties in the redispersion process, shear mode, and valve mode were systematically simulated for the first time. The results indicated that dry MRF presented superior redispersion property and response time (several μs) than liquid-based MRFs. In shear mode, the magnetic dipolar force and friction force dominated the evolution of microstructures. In valve mode, the magnetic dipolar force and viscous drag force of air became the main interactions. Magnetic particles aggregated into sturdy chain structures and hindered the airflow. The MR effect in valve mode was the pressure gradient of the matrix, which increased up to 1.08 × 105 Pa m−1 with the increasing particle volume fractions and decreased under a large inflow velocity. The best MR effect in valve mode was achieved under a magnetic field of B = 63 mT. Simulations revealed the influence of dimensionless Mn and Re number on the MR effect. The pressure gradient of the matrix was controlled by the external field and can be utilized to design a dry MRF valve for precious and transient vibration control. Simulated dimensionless shear stress in shear mode agreed well with experiments. This work will promote the development and applications of novel high-performance MRFs.

Increasing Effectiveness of The Urban Artificial Reservoir Trough Cross Section Improvement

Situ Ciledug is an artificial reservoir located at Tangerang Selatan, Indonesia. In 1950 known as one of the largest lakes with total area of 32.806 hectares. As time goes by, due to the construction of housing and land use around the area, the catcahment area was reduced about 19.3 hectares in 2013 and by the end of 2020 the surface area was become 16.2 hectares. Urbanization is the main factor that makes the area of Situ Ciledug’s narrower. The second impact was flooding, as a result, the flood inundates the cities around the reservoir. This study aims to increase the storage capacities by normalizing the reservoir using SWMM 5.1 software. Hydrological analysis was carried out in the first stage to find the maximum rainfall using a 100-year return period. Then result intensity of rainfall used to analyze the hyetograph as input for rainfall data in SWMM 5.1. The modeling uses a maximum of rainfall about 107 mm with a reservoir depth of 1.3 meters. The large inflow that enters the reservoir is 87.504 m3/second aand the volume is 30.145 m3/second. Therefore, it is necessary to normalize the reservoir by increasing the depth of the reservoir by 0.7 meters. Normalization is carried out to accommodate flood discharge as a solution to flood mitigation due to the overflow.

Seasonal and interannual variability of salinity in a large West-African lagoon (Nokoué Lagoon, Benin)

Nokoué Lagoon in the South of Benin is a large intermittent coastal water body in West Africa, which supports one of the largest inland fisheries of the region. The seasonal and interannual variability of its salinity was studied, based on 3 years of monthly surveys (Dec 2017–Dec 2020). This dataset allows us to identify fine-scale salinity structures and to better understand the salinization/desalinization processes at seasonal scales. During the rainy season from May to November, under the influence of large freshwater inflows from the rivers on its northern shores, the lagoon desalinizes to a salinity of zero in October–November. During the dry season from December to April, under the effect of the ocean tide, Nokoué lagoon becomes progressively saltier, reaching typical salinities of ∼25 in April. On average, the Nokoué lagoon is saltier in its southwestern part and fresher towards the river's mouths.Vertical salinity stratification is largest in December at the beginning of the main dry season. The lagoon displays a very marked interannual variation with mean surface (bottom, respectively) salinity of 25 (25) in April 2018 and 2020, respectively, against 16 (18) in April 2019. In the absence of river inflow data, a box model shows that the average salinity of the lagoon is very sensitive to small changes in river inflow (or discharge), with observed interannual differences in salinity induced by small variations of 10–15 m3 s−1 in inflow during the dry season. During the salinization phase, the model suggests that ∼30% of the seawater entering the lagoon during flood-tides remains trapped and enhances the Nokoué lagoon salinity. This model also indicates that a complete desalinization of the lagoon occurs for river inflow greater than ∼50–60 m3 s−1. The general mixing time scale of the lagoon is of 30–40 days.

Does refugee inflow affect urban crime? Evidence from the U.S. Indochinese refugee resettlement

AbstractWe study the city‐level crime effects of immigration using a large migratory episode in U.S. cities: the resettlement of postwar Indochinese refugees in the 1970s–1980s. We examine the impact of these migratory inflows, where the destination of refugees was largely exogeneously determined, on the incidence of various types of crime by aggregating county‐level crime data. Results from a difference‐in‐differences analysis imply that the cities receiving the heaviest inflows of refugees did not experience differential trends in property crime or violent crime rates following this period; while there is an upward impact on murder rates, pre‐trends do not match for this variable, and further analysis via the synthetic control method show that any upward impact is driven primarily by a temporary (5 years at most) surge in three metropolitan statistical areas. Our results suggest that consistent with prior literature, even a large refugee inflow may not by itself generate persistent crime increases.