Large Herbivore Populations Research Articles

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.

Maternal Investment by Yellowstone Pronghorn Following Winter Habitat Deterioration

Spring and summer-autumn nutrition are the prime determinants of reproductive investment in most largeherbivore populations, though winter severity is known to affect reproductive rates in some situations. To evaluate the effects of a long-term decline in winter habitat quality, a diet shift away from sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) during winter, and differential habitat selection during spring-autumn on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) reproduction, we assessed female and fawn condition, maternal investment, and early fawn survival in migrant and nonmigrant portions of the Yellowstone pronghorn population in Montana and Wyoming during 1999–2001. Mean female mass at capture in late winter (46.81 kg, SE = 0.66), pregnancy rate (0.94, SE = 0.03), date of birthing (median = 1 June), litter size (1.90, SE = 0.07), ratio of litter mass to maternal mass (0.134, SE = 0.005), fawn mass at birth (3.08 kg, SE = 0.07), and fawn survival to August (0.15, SE = 0.04) were within the ranges reported for populations elsewhere, and birth dates were uncorrelated with female mass and indexed condition the preceding winter. However, fawn age at death (median = 7 days) was correlated with indexed fawn condition at birth, and indexed fawn condition and age at death were significantly greater for migrants occupying higher-elevation interior areas during the summer than for nonmigrants occupying the winter range year-round. Winter habitat conditions did not appear to substantially limit reproductive rates in this population during the study period. Our data suggest that spring and possibly summer nutrition may be higher for migrants than for nonmigrants, resulting in higher perinatal mass in migrant fawns and reduced neonatal mortality.

The oak browsing index correlates linearly with roe deer density: a new indicator for deer management?

Increasing populations of large herbivores during the last decades have had a major impact on vegetation. While several studies have looked for quantifying this impact in terms of plant biomass, plant survival or financial costs, the potential benefit of using the response of the vegetation to changes in browsing pressure by large herbivores to monitor their populations has been poorly investigated. As getting accurate estimates of density in populations of large herbivores is problematic, the use of indicators measuring the intensity of browsing might offer reliable alternative to managers. From the intensive monitoring of a roe deer population subject to an experimental manipulation of density, we looked for assessing the response of oak to changes of roe deer population size. Using a simple browsing index calculated from field data over 10 years, we found that this oak browsing index linearly increased with increasing population size of roe deer. This suggests that such an oak browsing index might be a reliable “indicator of ecological change” for monitoring roe deer populations in oak forests with natural regeneration.

The role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the dynamics of a savanna large herbivore population

Our understanding of large‐scale climatic phenomena and dynamics of large herbivore populations comes principally from research in northern regions with temperate, seasonal climate and animal communities with relatively low species diversity. To assess the generality of that perspective, we investigated effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on population dynamics of African buffalo Syncerus caffer inhabiting a semi‐arid savanna with variable rainfall. We used linear and nonlinear‐threshold models to investigate relationships between population parameters and explanatory variables affecting forage conditions (seasonal rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index [SOI]). El Niño‐related droughts in 1982–1983 and 1991–1992 were associated with strongly negative population change, a pattern expected to coincide with a decrease in normally high and constant adult survival. Consistent with that nonlinear pattern, we detected threshold relationships between wet‐season rainfall and population change. Juvenile recruitment was described best by linear relationships with dry‐season. Because ENSO operates primarily through wet‐season rainfall, whereas population dynamics were also related to dry‐season rainfall, SOI did not have the predictive ability of individual weather components.

Cascading effects of moose (Alces alces) management on birds

AbstractLarge herbivores often have key functions in their ecosystems, and may affect ecosystem processes with cascading effects on other animals. The mechanisms often involve relocations of resources of various kinds, including reduction in resource availability following foraging and increase in resources from animal excreta. As large herbivore populations in Europe generally are intensely managed, management activities may interact with the activities of the herbivores themselves in the effect on other ecosystem components. We investigated the effects of moose (Alces alces) winter browsing, together with the effect of net nutrient input via supplementary winter feeding of moose on functional composition and species richness of birds in a boreal forest. Supplementary feeding stations for moose had a net zero effect on bird species richness and abundance, because negative effects of moose browsing were balanced by positive effects of nutrient input. Sites with a similar browsing intensity as at feeding stations but without nutrient input had lower abundance and species richness than feeding stations. Functional groups of bird species showed differing responses: birds nesting at or below browsing height were negatively affected by moose browsing, whereas species nesting above the browsing zone were positively affected by moose browsing. Insect‐eating species responded negatively to moose browsing on birch but positively to nutrient input at feeding stations, whereas seed‐eating species responded positively to birch browsing and negatively to feeding stations. This study showed that both high levels of cervid activity and human management interventions influence bird communities.

Fertility partially drives the relative success of two introduced bovines (Bubalus bubalis and Bos javanicus) in the Australian tropics

Context Some large herbivores introduced to Australia have achieved population densities so high as to cause considerable ecological damage. Intriguingly, others have been relatively less successful and have correspondingly perturbed their new environments less. An excellent example is two similar-sized bovine species that established feral populations in the Northern Territory of Australia in the mid-19th century. Asian swamp buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) rapidly colonised the tropical savannas, causing ecological degradation, especially on freshwater swamps. In contrast, banteng (Bos javanicus) are restricted to their point of introduction and have caused relatively negligible ecological damage. Understanding the reasons of this differential success is of theoretical and applied interest and contributes to managing large herbivore populations for ex situ conservation and feral-animal control. Aims To compare the population structure of buffalo and banteng on the basis of shot samples, so as to construct life tables for four contemporary (low-density) buffalo populations, and collated data from previous work from three historical (high-density) buffalo populations and one banteng population (the only extant ex situ population in existence). Further, to provide a validation of age estimation with and without informed priors in a Bayesian model comparing horn length and ages estimated from tooth cementum annuli. Finally, to interpret our results in the context of relative invasion potential of the two bovid species. Key Results For both species, survival of juveniles was the most important demographic component influencing deterministic population growth. However, buffalo have the demographic capacity to recover swiftly after control because of high survival and fertility rates across a range of population densities. Fertility of buffalo was historically greater than that of banteng, and buffalo fertility increased as their populations were reduced. Conclusions These findings highlight how subtle differences in demographic rates and feeding ecology can influence the success (high population growth and range expansion) of large herbivores, knowledge which is increasingly important for managing invasive species effectively. Implications We show that that individual life-history traits and demographic performance, especially fertility, play an important role in determining the spread of invasive bovids in a novel environment.

Fluctuating ungulate density shapes tree recruitment in natural stands of the Białowieża Primeval Forest, Poland

Question: What are the main driving factors in 70 years of natural dynamics in tree recruitment in the Bialowieza National Park? Location: Bialowieza National Park, Poland, is one of the least disturbed temperate, lowland forest systems in Europe. Methods: We tested whether fluctuations in large herbivore populations, changes in climate and openness of the forest explained compositional dynamics. Tree recruitment (to size class DBH≥5 cm) was measured on permanent transects (in total, 14.9 ha) six times between 1936-2002. These data were related to existing data on ungulate density, climatic parameters and estimates of forest openness collected during the same period. Results: Total recruitment of all tree species combined was negatively correlated with total ungulate density and red deer density. The variation in response between species was related to the preferences of herbivores; the more preferred forage species (especially Carpinus betulus) were positively and the less preferred species negatively related to herbivore density. Total tree recruitment rates were not related to climatic parameters and openness of the forest. Only Alnus glutinosa recruitment was significantly related to climatic parameters, and Ulmus glabra related to forest openness, but there were no predictable patterns in recruitment among species in relation to these factors. Conclusion: The present study indicated that changes in large herbivore density have played an important role in driving patterns in tree recruitment and species composition during the last 70 years in Bialowieza National Park. In contrast to other studies, increasing herbivore numbers were associated with higher recruitment of preferred and browsing-tolerant species. Periodical crashes in ungulate numbers, whether human-induced or caused by natural factors, may offer windows of opportunity for regeneration of a range of tree species and facilitate more diverse and dynamic forest development.

Interacting effect of wolves and climate on recruitment in a northern mountain caribou population

There is limited research on the influence of Pacific-based climate in large herbivore populations. Additionally, much of our understanding on the effect of large-scale climate on ungulate population dynamics has occurred on forage-limited rather than predator-limited populations. We compared the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Index, and local weather on recruitment in a predator-limited mountain-dwelling caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou population in the Yukon Territory, Canada, across a range of wolf Canis lupus densities. A large-scale wolf removal program allowed us to examine the role of Pacific climate and weather when wolves were reduced to ∼15% of their pre-removal levels. Recruitment was best explained by the interaction of wolf density and April-PDO, with wolf density explaining the most deviance. Predicted recruitment during good springs was 0.45 (SE = 0.04) during wolf removal and 0.29 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. During poor springs (low PDO, increased snow depth) predicted recruitment was 0.55 (SE = 0.10) during wolf removal and 0.12 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. With non-altered wolf densities, there was a positive relationship between April-PDO and recruitment due to reduced snow depth at calving, allowing parturient females to disperse up in elevation away from predators. When wolf densities were substantially reduced there was a slight negative relationship between April-PDO and recruitment, possibly due to a more rapid vegetation green-up reducing the temporal availability of highly nutritious forage necessary for lactation and subsequent calf growth. Attempts to find general relationships between climate and ungulate population dynamics have proven difficult due to different ecological mechanisms by which climate affects individuals across populations. Temporally varying factors, such as predator density, may also play an important role in uncovering the mechanistic relationship between climate and population dynamics.

Winter climate change implications for decomposition in northeastern forests: comparisons of sugar maple litter with herbivore fecal inputs

AbstractForests in northeastern North America are influenced by varying climatic and biotic factors; however, there is concern that rapid changes in these factors may lead to important changes in ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Climate change (especially warming) is predicted to increase rates of decomposition in northern latitudes. Warming in winter may result in complex effects including decreased levels of snow cover and an increased incidence of soil freezing that will effect decomposition. Along with these changes in climate, moose densities have also been increasing in this region, likely affecting nutrient dynamics. We measured decomposition and N release from15N‐labeled sugar maple leaf litter and moose feces over 20 months in reference and snow removal treatment (to induce soil freezing) plots in two separate experiments at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. Snow removal/soil freezing decreased decomposition of maple litter, but stimulated N transfer to soil and microbial biomass. Feces decomposed more rapidly than maple litter, and feces N moved into the mineral soil more than N derived from litter, likely due to the lower C : N ratio of feces. Feces decomposition was not affected by the snow removal treatment. Total microbial biomass (measured as microbial N and C) was not significantly affected by the treatments in either the litter or feces plots. These results suggest that increases in soil freezing and/or large herbivore populations, increase the transfer rate of N from plant detritus or digested plants into the mineral soil. Such changes suggest that altering the spatial and temporal patterns of soil freezing and moose density have important implications for ecosystem N cycling.

Last glacial vegetation of northern Eurasia

In order to investigate the potential role of vegetation changes in megafaunal extinctions during the later part of the last glacial stage and early Holocene (42–10 ka BP), the palaeovegetation of northern Eurasia and Alaska was simulated using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. Palaeoclimatic driving data were derived from simulations made for 22 time slices using the Hadley Centre Unified Model. Modelled annual net primary productivity (aNPP) of a series of plant functional types (PFTs) is mapped for selected time slices and summarised for major geographical regions for all time slices. Strong canonical correlations are demonstrated between model outputs and pollen data compiled for the same period and region. Simulated aNPP values, especially for tree PFTs and for a mesophilous herb PFT, provide evidence of the structure and productivity of last glacial vegetation. The mesophilous herb PFT aNPP is higher in many areas during the glacial than at present or during the early Holocene. Glacial stage vegetation, whilst open and largely treeless in much of Europe, thus had a higher capacity to support large vertebrate herbivore populations than did early Holocene vegetation. A marked and rapid decrease in aNPP of mesophilous herbs began shortly after the Last Glacial Maximum, especially in western Eurasia. This is likely implicated in extinction of several large herbivorous mammals during the latter part of the glacial stage and the transition to the Holocene.

Decline of Raptors over a Three-Year Period in Laikipia, Central Kenya

Raptors were monitored monthly over a three-year period in a protected area in central Kenya. The number of raptors declined more than 40% per year. Scavenging birds accounted for most of the decline; sightings decreased by 70% during our surveys, although these declines were not statistically significant. During the time of the study, the overall populations of large wild herbivores showed little change, whereas domestic herbivores, particularly sheep and goats, increased markedly, suggesting that food limitation was not the cause of the vulture declines at the study site. Possible causes of raptor decline include the consumption of poisoned baits, which are placed by pastoralists to kill large predators that attack livestock. Scavenging birds provide one of the most important yet underappreciated ecosystem services of any avian group. The rapid decline of scavenging birds, especially vultures, in central Kenya warrants additional population monitoring to understand whether declines are local or regional, and to elucidate causes of population decreases.

Seasonal effects of Pacific‐based climate on recruitment in a predator‐limited large herbivore

1. Climate is an important factor influencing the population dynamics of large herbivores operating directly on individuals or through its effect on forage characteristics. However, the seasonal effect of climate may differ between forage- and predator-limited populations because of a climatic influence on predation rates. The influence of climate on predator-limited large herbivores is less well known than on forage-limited populations. Further, the effect of Pacific-based climate on large herbivore populations has been rarely assessed. 2. We investigated the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), across different seasons, on recruitment in 10 populations (herds) of mountain-dwelling caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou L. in the Yukon Territory, Canada. These low-density populations occur in highly seasonal environments and are considered predator-limited with high neonatal calf mortality. Hence, in most years females do not spend resources through lactational support during the summer and resource intake is devoted to self-maintenance. We predicted that climate affecting environmental conditions at calving would have a strong effect on recruitment via its influence on predation rates. We also predicted that climatic conditions prior to conception could have an effect on recruitment through its influence on female fecundity. We modelled recruitment (n = 165) by seasonal PDO values using generalized linear mixed-effects models with herd-varying coefficients. 3. We found that recruitment variability was best explained by variation in winter climate (beta = 0.110, SE = 0.007) prior to birth (in utero) and May climate (beta = 0.013, SE = 0.006) at calving. There was little support for a pre-conception climate effect influencing female body condition and hence fecundity. These results confirm that recruitment in these populations is limited by predation and that forage-limitation is not a significant factor in their population dynamics. There was considerable variability in herd-specific relationships between the PDO and recruitment. Incorporating herd-specific characteristics, such as variable predator densities or terrain characteristics within a herd range, may shed greater light on the complex relationship between climate and ungulate population dynamics.

The affects of artificial water availability on large herbivore ranging patterns in savanna habitats: a new approach based on modelling elephant path distributions

AbstractAim Artificial water points are often used in protected savanna ecosystems to maintain populations of large herbivores. However, these interventions lead to increased ranging and foraging pressure and can negatively impact important habitats and species. This study investigated the influence of artificial water provision on the foraging and movement paths of an African elephant population and modelled the impact of changing water availability on sensitive habitat types.Location Tembe Elephant Park (TEP), KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa.Methods We mapped and classified 414 km of elephant movement and foraging paths in a 300‐km2 fenced protected area. The data were analysed to determine the relationship between path size, distribution and distance to water. We also used a logistic modelling approach to explore the predicted effects of removing artificial water points on path distribution.Results Elephant paths were unevenly distributed throughout the habitats of TEP and the most established and heavily used paths were found closest to water. We also discovered a number of elephant ‘rest areas’ along the paths, which were distinct clearings that tended to be close to water and in sand forest habitat. Our model predicted that the removal of artificial water points would reduce the area crossed by elephant paths by 79%, leading to an 89% reduction in the presence of elephant paths in sand forest.Main conclusions Our study provides further evidence that manipulating surface water availability can be a useful tool for managing large herbivore impacts on vegetation and acts as the basis for further research on the trade‐offs between conservation objectives.

Individual quality, early‐life conditions, and reproductive success in contrasted populations of large herbivores

Variations among individuals in phenotypic quality and fitness often confound analyses of life-history strategies assessed at the population level. We used detailed long-term data from three populations of large herbivores with generation times ranging from four to nine years to quantify heterogeneity in individual quality among females, and to assess its influence on mean annual reproductive success over the lifetime (MRS). We also determined how environmental conditions in early life shaped individual quality and tested A. Lomnicki's hypothesis that variance in individual quality should increase when environmental conditions deteriorate. Using multivariate analyses (PCA), we identified one (in sheep and deer) or two (in goats) covariations among life-history traits (longevity, success in the last breeding opportunity, adult mass, and social rank) as indexes of individual quality that positively influenced MRS of females. Individual quality was reduced by unfavorable weather, low resource availability, and high population density in the year of birth. Early-life conditions accounted for 35-55% of variation in individual quality. In roe deer, we found greater variance in individual quality for cohorts born under unfavorable conditions as opposed to favorable ones, but the opposite was found in bighorn sheep and mountain goats. Our results demonstrate that heterogeneity in female quality can originate from environmental conditions in early life and can markedly influence the fitness of females in species located at different positions along the slow-fast continuum of life-history strategies.

A slow life in hell or a fast life in heaven: demographic analyses of contrasting roe deer populations

1. Environmental conditions shape population growth through their impact on demographic parameters. While knowledge has accumulated concerning the effects of population density and climatic conditions, a topical question now concerns how predation and harvest influence demographic parameters and population growth (lambda). 2. We performed a comparative demographic analysis based on projection matrix models for female roe deer. Population-specific matrices were parameterized based on longitudinal data from five intensively monitored populations in Norway and France, spanning a large variability in environmental characteristics such as densities of large predators, hunter harvest and seasonality. 3. As expected for a large iteroparous vertebrate, temporal variation was invariably higher in recruitment than in adult survival, and the elasticity of adult survival was consistently higher than that of recruitment. However, the relative difference in elasticity of lambda to recruitment and adult survival varied strongly across populations, and was closely correlated with adult survival. 4. Different traits accounted for most of the variance in lambda in different ecological settings. Adult survival generally contributed more in populations with low mean adult survival and low mean growth rate during the study period. Hunters and predators (Eurasian lynx and red foxes) occurred in two of our study populations and contributed substantially to the variance in lambda, accounting for a total of 35% and 70% in the two populations respectively. 5. Across populations, we did not find any evidence that roe deer increased their reproductive output when faced with harsh conditions, resulting in some populations having negative growth rates. 6. Generation time, a measure of the speed of the life-history cycle, increased from less than 4 years in the most productive population ('roe deer heaven') to more than 6 years in declining populations facing predation from lynx, red fox and hunters ('roe deer hell'), and was tightly and inversely correlated with lambda. Such a deceleration of the life cycle in declining populations might be a general feature in large herbivores. 7. Our results shows that the plethora of environmental conditions faced by populations of large herbivores also induce high intraspecific variation in their ranking along the 'fast-slow' continuum of life-history tactics.

Large-scale impacts of herbivores on the structural diversity of African savannas

African savannas are undergoing management intensification, and decision makers are increasingly challenged to balance the needs of large herbivore populations with the maintenance of vegetation and ecosystem diversity. Ensuring the sustainability of Africa's natural protected areas requires information on the efficacy of management decisions at large spatial scales, but often neither experimental treatments nor large-scale responses are available for analysis. Using a new airborne remote sensing system, we mapped the three-dimensional (3-D) structure of vegetation at a spatial resolution of 56 cm throughout 1640 ha of savanna after 6-, 22-, 35-, and 41-year exclusions of herbivores, as well as in unprotected areas, across Kruger National Park in South Africa. Areas in which herbivores were excluded over the short term (6 years) contained 38%-80% less bare ground compared with those that were exposed to mammalian herbivory. In the longer-term (> 22 years), the 3-D structure of woody vegetation differed significantly between protected and accessible landscapes, with up to 11-fold greater woody canopy cover in the areas without herbivores. Our maps revealed 2 scales of ecosystem response to herbivore consumption, one broadly mediated by geologic substrate and the other mediated by hillslope-scale variation in soil nutrient availability and moisture conditions. Our results are the first to quantitatively illustrate the extent to which herbivores can affect the 3-D structural diversity of vegetation across large savanna landscapes.

Intrinsic and extrinsic sources of variation in the dynamics of large herbivore populations

We evaluated the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (density-independent) sources of resource variability in the dynamics of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis Shaw, 1804) populations in southwestern USA. We tested the hypothesis that populations experiencing greater variation in forage availability are less likely to be at equilibrium density with forage supplies, and thus, would demonstrate weaker evidence of intraspecific competition. We used regression to relate population growth rate to rainfall (forage conditions) and to abundance (intraspecific competition) for 20 sheep populations, and we estimated the strength of the effects of density and rainfall for each population. Then we compared among populations to look for relationships between the strengths of rainfall and density effects and the variability in rainfall experienced by each population. Populations demonstrating a density effect were associated with environments having lower variability than those that did not. Populations showing a rainfall effect were associated with environments having a variability higher than those that lacked a rainfall effect. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that populations experiencing higher variation in forage resources are less likely to achieve an equilibrium density with forage supplies where intraspecific competition would be a large determinant to the dynamics of that population.

Fluctuations in abundance of large herbivore populations: insights into the influence of dry season rainfall and elephant numbers from long‐term data

AbstractIn some African protected areas, elephant populations have reached high densities causing concern about their influence on other forms of biodiversity, and in particular, other large herbivores. This has led to a debate whether management of elephant populations might need to be implemented. Surprisingly, few studies have focused on the influence of elephants on other herbivores and the existing results are conflicting. We investigated such influence in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, where elephants were culled and maintained at low density up to 1986, and have more than doubled since then, thus providing the opportunity to explore their possible influence on other herbivore species. Trends of different herbivore populations were obtained using long‐term waterhole census data, with these results also being correlated to changes in dry season rainfall, as another fundamental determinant of herbivore population fluctuations. While our study did not allow us to properly disentangle the role of elephants and rainfall, it provided valuable insights. For five out of the 13 herbivore species studied, the population increased between 1973 and 1986 (high dry season rainfall; relatively low elephant abundance), then decreased between 1987 and 1995 (extremely low dry season rainfall; increase in the elephant population), and finally have increased since 1996 (high dry season rainfall; high elephant abundance). These results are consistent with an important role of dry season rainfall on herbivore population dynamics. Additionally, for four other species, the population increased between 1973 and 1986 and has decreased since then. As most herbivore declines occurred simultaneously with increase in the elephant population in the 1987–1995 period, and with the recent increase in most populations happening at a lower rate than the 1973–1985 period, our results suggest the possible existence of a negative influence of high elephant densities on other herbivores. We discuss what the possible underlying mechanisms can be and how to investigate them.

Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during “hot-fire” conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas.

Estimating population trends using population viability analyses for the conservation ofCapra pyrenaica

Large herbivore populations can suffer important oscillations with considerable effects on ecosystem functions and services, yet our capacity to predict population fate is limited and conditional upon the availability of data. This study investigated the interannual variation in the growth rate of populations ofCapra pyrenaica Schinz, 1838, and its extinction risk by comparing the dynamics of populations that were stable for more than two decades (Gredos and Tortosa-Beceite), populations that had increased recently (Tejeda-Almijara), and populations that were in decline (Cazorla-Segura) or extinct (the Pyrenees population; hereafter, bucardo). To estimate quasi-extinction threshold assessments (50% of population extinct in this study), which have implications for the conservation of the species, we used empirical data and the predictions derived from several theoretical models. The results indicate that when variance of log population growth rate reaches a specific threshold, the probability of quasi-extinction increased drastically. ForC. pyrenaica, we recommend keeping population variance < 0.05, which will reduce the likelihood that the irruptive oscillations caused by environmental and demographic stochasticity will put the population at risk. Models to predict the dynamics ofC. pyrenaica populations should incorporate temporal stochasticity because, in this study, it strongly increased the likelihood that a population declined.