Large Magnitude Earthquakes Research Articles

Stochastic Generation of Peak Ground Accelerations Based on Single Seismic Event Data for Safety Assessment of Structures

The Korean Peninsula, characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity, faces a shortage of strong ground motion records, posing challenges for the seismic safety assessment of critical infrastructures. Given the rarity of large-magnitude earthquakes, generating a variety of earthquakes with rational values of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is essential for robust seismic fragility and risk analysis. To address this, a new stochastic approach is proposed to simulate artificial earthquakes at multiple source-to-site distances and derive the probability distribution of PGA based on recorded data from a single seismic event. Two key source parameters, seismic moment and corner frequency, are treated as random variables with a negative correlation, reflecting their uncertainties and dependence on source-to-site distance. The Monte Carlo simulation with copula sampling of the key source parameters generates Fourier spectra for artificial earthquakes, which are transformed into the time domain to yield PGA distributions at various distances. A comparison with recorded data shows that the proposed method effectively simulates ground motion intensities, with no statistically significant differences between the simulated results and recorded data (p > 0.05). The present method of determining PGA distributions provides a robust framework to enhance seismic risk analysis for the safety assessment of structures.

Evaluation of directionality in physics-based ground motion simulations of strike-slip earthquakes

Recent advances in engineering seismology and computing power have led to the development of realistic physics-based ground motion simulations. The use of these simulations for engineering applications requires that the ground motions exhibit characteristics consistent with those of recorded ground motions. While several studies have evaluated the intensity, frequency content, duration, and other characteristics of ground motion simulations for their possible use in engineering applications, few have focused on directionality. This article evaluates directionality in the response of single-degree-of-freedom oscillators when subjected to CyberShake Study 15.12 simulated ground motions from strike-slip earthquakes, by carefully comparing it to the directionality in recorded ground motions having the same style of faulting. Physics-based ground motion simulations at 334 stations from 5 different rupture variations in two large-magnitude earthquake scenarios on the Elsinore fault are evaluated. The orientation of maximum oscillator response and its spatial distribution are studied for each rupture. The orientation of maximum oscillator response is found to occur systematically close to the epicentral transverse orientation at all rupture distances, consistent with recent findings for ground motions recorded during strike-slip earthquakes. In addition, the orientation-specific spectral accelerations, when computed as a function of angular distance from the epicentral transverse orientation, are found to exhibit a variation consistent with the overall trend observed in records from the next-generation attenuation (NGA)-West2 database. However, the level of polarization at short periods in the simulated hybrid broadband waveforms used in this study is larger than that in recorded ground motions.

Exploring seismic fragility and strengthening of masonry built heritage in Lisbon (Portugal) via the Applied Element Method

Although mainland Portugal has been spared from large magnitude earthquakes in recent years, it faces a threat due to the presence of several active fault systems. In such a framework, Portuguese pre-code masonry construction is believed to be the most vulnerable in the existing building stock. Given the lack of information on earthquake damage to this stock, the use of detailed numerical models is a viable strategy to comprehend its seismic behavior. This paper provides an updated fragility characterization of Lisbon pre-code masonry buildings based on their seismic assessment through the Applied Element Method. To limit the computational time, a promising pushover strategy, known as Incremental Ground Acceleration, was adopted. After the characterization of the current fragility, two retrofit layouts based on piers strengthening were modeled and assessed for the building stock whose seismic capacity does not meet expected demand. The aim of the paper is to derive updated fragility curves for the Lisbon region to support risk analysis incorporating the latest hazard studies and to offer insights into potential retrofit interventions.

Catalog of focal mechanism solutions for the Sichuan and Yunnan region from 2012 to 2022 using the community velocity model of Southwest China

The focal mechanism solution is one of the important focal parameters for exploring fault activity and studying regional stress distribution and it has a wide range of applications. The geological structure of the Sichuan-Yunnan region in China is complex, with frequent earthquakes and abundant historical observation data, making it one of the popular areas of concern for scholars. This study utilizes the high-precision community velocity model v2.0 of southwest China, obtained through joint inversion based on multiple data methods. The Cut-And-Paste (CAP) method was employed to fit and invert the observed waveforms of 1475 events with ML ​≥ ​3.5 in the Sichuan-Yunnan region from January 2012 to December 2022, thereby constructing a catalog of double-couple focal mechanisms. By comparing the focal mechanism inversion results of small earthquakes with those from multiple one-dimensional velocity models and conducting comparative statistical analysis on events below magnitude 4, it has been demonstrated that the model used in this study provides a better fit than one-dimensional models. This contributes to establishing the lower magnitude limit for producing deeper focal mechanism solutions. This study compares the results of larger magnitude earthquakes in the catalog with those published by the Global Centroid-Moment Tensor (GCMT) project and smaller magnitude earthquakes with the catalog released by the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration. These comparisons serve to validate the accuracy of the catalog results. Leveraging the high-resolution velocity model, this catalog has re-examined the historical earthquake focal mechanism catalog of the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The inversion has yielded reliable results for smaller magnitudes and a greater number of events, providing additional data and support for understanding the regional stress field, active faults, the mechanisms of large earthquake genesis, and earthquake prediction efforts. Consequently, this enhances the depth of scientific research in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.

Abnormal low-magnitude seismicity preceding large-magnitude earthquakes

Unraveling the precursory signals of potentially destructive earthquakes is crucial to understand the Earth’s crust dynamics and to provide reliable seismic warnings. Earthquake precursors are ambiguous, but recent experimental studies suggest that robust warning signs may precede large seismic events in the short (day-to-months) term. Here, we show that the M6.4-M7.1 2019 Ridgecrest sequence (California) and the M7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake (Alaska) were preceded by up to ~3 months of tectonic unrest on regional scales, as evidenced by abnormal low-magnitude seismicity spreading over the ~15-25% of Southern California and Southcentral Alaska. This precursory unrest has been discovered with an algorithm that integrates an innovative random forest machine learning approach and statistical features built from earthquake catalogs. Supported by a novel suite of finite element solid mechanics models, we propose that precursory, abnormal, low-magnitude seismicity arises if the pore fluid pressure within large fault segments escalates significantly as they approach failure, which leads to major uneven changes in the regional stress field. Our findings and method may open up new perspectives for surveillance agencies to anticipate when a region approaches an earthquake of great magnitude weeks to months before it occurs.

A didactic experience for educating the youngest generations about seismic risk using an escape room

Effective risk communication is crucial for enhancing societal resilience. It’s not just about scientific strategies; it’s also about ensuring that communities are informed and prepared. Educating local populations, especially younger generations, is key to improving disaster readiness. Notably, engaging younger generations assumes significance, given their role as both the future of society and conduits for educating their families. Serious Games, specifically Escape Rooms, present a compelling tool for engaging and interacting with young people. These games, designed not primarily for entertainment but for educational purposes, facilitate active participant involvement, thereby enhancing learning. In our didactic approach, comprising a frontal lesson and an Escape Room, we sought to leverage the appeal of Serious Games to educate young people. This approach was particularly timely during the COVID-19 pandemic, where virtual experiences gained positive evaluations despite the inherent challenges. Italy frequently faces large magnitude earthquakes. Yet many Italians, especially young people, have low seismic risk awareness, hindering preparedness efforts. To address this issue, the use of games and interactive experiences proves promising. By involving young people, seismic risk awareness can be effectively raised, fostering a culture of safety. Throughout the implementation of the Escape Room exercise dedicated to seismic risk, we conducted an evaluation phase both before and after the activities. The insights gained from this evaluation process provided valuable feedback on the learning experience and the effectiveness of the science communication technique. Notably, the virtual nature of the escape room experience was positively evaluated, demonstrating its adaptability during the pandemic. It is imperative to acknowledge that participants in these activities were aged between 15 and 18 years old, requiring ethical considerations in the design and execution of the educational intervention. The findings are highly promising, indicating that students viewed the protocol as beneficial for understanding fundamental concepts in seismology and enhancing their perception of risk. Moreover, the protocol positively influenced students’ interest in science and geophysics. Furthermore, an aspect that remains unexplored is the extent to which the knowledge acquired by the participants was disseminated within their families, representing a potential area for future investigation.

Horndeski-like gravity perturbation induced by large-magnitude earthquake

We hypothesis that large earthquakes generate Horndeski-like Gravitational Wave (GW). We find that such a Horndeski-like GW propagates with the speed of sound. The sound waves generated by an earthquake make a local and temporal change to the Earth’s diagravitational medium; therefore, they modify the GW speed in a standard, Alternative-Theory-of-Gravity (ATG) sense. The quantum of the Horndeski-like GW is a massless scalar quasiparticle and cannot exist outside of the propagation region of the P-field. The Horndeski-like GW may be detectable by future GW detectors with a sensitivity of 10–15 Hz-1/2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {Hz}^{{-1/2}}$$\\end{document} in the region of 0.1–1 Hz.

Potential domino effect of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the centuries-long seismic quiescence of the Dead Sea fault: inferences from the North Anatolian fault

Field observations conducted immediately following the February 6, 2023, Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake documented the southern surface rupture termination in the Amik Basin. The termination occurred in an en-echelon pattern, extending across the 3.5 km width of the approximately 10-km-wide stepover. This extension reached towards the northern tip of the Hacıpaşa Fault, which constitutes the main northern segment of the Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ). Archaeoseismologic and paleoseismologic data show that the approximately 800-km-long DSFZ has been seismically quiet for more than 600 years in the north and 900 years in the south. A similar fault connection geometry at the western end of the 1939 Ms 7.9 Erzincan earthquake in the easternmost part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the subsequently triggered successive large magnitude earthquakes migrating westward within a few decades highlights an increased seismic hazard for the entire DSFZ. This heightened seismic hazard potential along the DSFZ, combined with historical population centers experiencing wars and migrations, puts millions of people at an unparalleled risk.

Inferring maximum magnitudes from the ordered sequence of large earthquakes.

The largest magnitude earthquake in a sequence is often used as a proxy for hazard estimates, as consequences are often predominately from this single event (in small seismic zones). In this article, the concept of order statistics is adapted to infer the maximum magnitude ([Formula: see text]) of an earthquake catalogue. A suite tools developed here can discern [Formula: see text] influences through hypothesis testing, quantify [Formula: see text] through maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or select the best [Formula: see text] prediction amongst several models. The efficacy of these tools is benchmarked against synthetic and real-data tests, demonstrating their utility. Ultimately, 13 cases of induced seismicity spanning wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing and enhanced geothermal systems are tested for volume-based [Formula: see text]. I find that there is no evidence of volume-based processes influencing any of these cases. On the contrary, all these cases are adequately explained by an unbounded magnitude distribution. This is significant because it suggests that induced earthquake hazards should also be treated as unbounded. On the other hand, if bounded cases exist, then the tools developed here will be able to discern them, potentially changing how an operator mitigates these hazards. Overall, this suite of tools will be important for better-understanding earthquakes and managing their risks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Are maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes controlled by pressure diffusion?

There is an ongoing discussion about how to forecast the maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes based on operational parameters, subsurface conditions and physical process understanding. Although the occurrence of damage caused by induced earthquakes is rare, some cases have caused significant economic loss, injuries and even loss of life. We analysed a global compilation of earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing, geothermal reservoir stimulation, water disposal, gas storage and reservoir impoundment. Our analysis showed that maximum magnitudes scale with the characteristic length of pressure diffusion in the brittle Earth's crust. We observed an increase in the nucleation potential of larger-magnitude earthquakes with time and explained it by diffusion-controlled growth of the pressure-perturbed part of faults. Numerical and analytical fault size modelling supported our findings. Finally, we derived magnitude scaling laws to manage induced seismic hazard of upcoming energy projects prior to operation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Assessing seismic hazard and uncertainty in Büyükçekmece using ground motion simulations

This study presents a comprehensive seismic hazard assessment for Büyükçekmece, a district in Istanbul, Turkey, situated near the seismically active North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The study utilizes stochastic ground motion simulations with the validated EXSIM algorithm to understand the potential impact of medium to large-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from MW 6.3 to 7.42) on this vulnerable community. The research employs a site-specific approach, considering unique amplification factors for each location. By conducting 50 scenario-based simulations, the study assesses the seismic hazard, highlighting the importance of comprehending variations in ground motion, even when they are small, for a more precise hazard assessment. Furthermore, this study addresses the critical issue of uncertainty, particularly concerning stress parameters and hypocenter locations. The researchers demonstrate that variability in these factors can introduce substantial uncertainty in ground motion predictions. The study provides insights into the range of potential ground motion outcomes through probabilistic assessments involving multiple scenarios and stress drop values. Notably, the results indicate that ground motion levels vary with earthquake magnitudes and underscore the significance of accounting for this variability. This research emphasizes the seismic vulnerability of Büyükçekmece and the importance of accurate ground motion simulations, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and mitigation efforts in the region.

Spatial Variation of Aquifer Permeability in the North China Plain from Large Magnitude Earthquake Signals

Spatial Variation of Aquifer Permeability in the North China Plain from Large Magnitude Earthquake Signals

A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California

After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.

Conversion from seismic to underwater sound waves along the Louisville Seamount Chain.

The conversion from seismic to ocean-acoustic waves occurs in different places on the bottom of the ocean, often hundreds to thousands of kilometers away from the epicenter. Here, we investigate this conversion process by studying 15 large-magnitude earthquakes that occurred between 2014 and 2022 along the Kermadec Arc in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. To pinpoint the location where seismic-to-acoustic conversion takes places, we analyze hydroacoustic signals recorded by a hydrophone triplet station of the International Monitoring System in the Juan Fernández archipelago. Results from direction-of-arrival and travel-time calculations indicate that the location of the conversion zone largely matches segments of the Louisville Seamount Chain, its lateral extent ranging from approximately 300 to 1800 km, and its location depending on the geometry between earthquake epicenter and the seamounts.

Present-day quantification of seismic coupling along the décollement level beneath the Potwar Plateau region in Pakistan western Himalaya

Using GNSS horizontal surface velocities and Sentinel-1 interferometry line-of-sight velocities, we quantify the current velocity field of the Potwar Plateau Salt Range fold-and-thrust belt. From this velocity field indicating a creep of the Potwar Plateau along the Main Himalayan Thrust, we inferred a weak subhorizontal décollement level formed by a massive Precambrian salt layer. To the south of the Plateau, the Salt Range is uplifted along the Salt Range Thrust, conditioned by the presence of an inherited normal fault. The Kalabagh Fault, which forms the western boundary of the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau, exhibits a creep rate of 3.3 mm/yr. Numerical modelling enabled us to characterise the slip distribution and coupling along the faults, showing the presence of a large asperity along the décollement level beneath the Potwar Plateau and several asperities along the eastern part of this basal thrust. The model also indicated an alternation of coupled and decoupled zones along the Kalabagh Fault, suggesting that this strike-slip fault can be characterised by creep and the occurrence of earthquakes and/or slow slip events. Considering the lack of instrumental and historical large-magnitude earthquakes in this area, the Main Himalayan Thrust and Kalabagh Fault are likely to be affected by earthquakes of magnitude Mw larger than 7.5. A slip rate of 20 mm/yr is modelled along the southern and superficial parts of the Salt Range Thrust, which is larger than the 14 mm/yr slip rate along the Main Himalayan Thrust at depth. This observation suggests the existence of a southward flow of massive salt along the Salt Range Thrust.

New Empirical Source-Scaling Laws for Crustal Earthquakes Incorporating Fault Dip and Seismogenic-Thickness Effects

Abstract New global source-scaling relations for the aspect ratio and rupture area for crustal earthquakes that include the width-limited effect and a possible free-surface effect are derived using a global dataset of finite-fault rupture models. In contrast to the commonly used scaling relations between moment magnitude (M), fault length (L), width (W), and area, we built self-consistent scaling relations by relating M to the aspect ratio (L/W) and to the fault area to model the change in the aspect ratio once the rupture width reaches the down-dip width limit of the fault. The width-limited effect of large-magnitude earthquakes depends on the fault dip and a regional term for the seismogenic thickness. The magnitude scaling of the aspect ratio includes a break in the magnitude scaling that is dip angle dependent. This dip angle-dependent magnitude scaling in the magnitude–area relation is modeled by a trilinear relation incorporating a dip-related transition range. The effect of the free surface was observed using a normalized depth term and parameterizing the source by the depth of the top of the fault rupture; it is more apparent in the area scaling relation. The scaling differences are related to the fault geometry, not to the rake angle, as commonly assumed. Finally, the corresponding L and W scaling relations obtained by converting the area and aspect ratio models to L and W models not only show good agreement with the previous regional scaling laws on average but also provide better fault-specific application due to the inclusion of a fault-specific dip angle and seismogenic thickness.

Mylonite, cataclasite, and gouge: Reconstruction of mechanical heterogeneity along a low-angle normal fault: Death valley, USA

The spectrum of slip behavior in crustal faults generates various rock types that can inform the mechanics of earthquake genesis. However, a single fault exposure may contain evidence of slip at various depths and temperatures due to progressive fault rock formation and overprinting during exhumation. Here, we unravel the spatiotemporal evolution of mechanical transitions along the Boundary Canyon detachment, a low-angle normal fault northeast of Death Valley, USA. Field, microstructural, and geochemical characterizations of fault rocks are compared to existing laboratory experiments and combined with a thermo-kinematic model of fault evolution. Together, these constrain the depths of mechanical transitions along the fault and reveal the evolution of earthquake nucleation zone thickness. Fault exposures from different initial paleodepths passed through the mechanical transitions during footwall exhumation, resulting in overprinting of mylonite by cataclasite and ubiquitous late formation of foliated, illite-rich gouge within the uppermost crust. We present evidence of coseismic low-angle normal fault slip (e.g., injection veins of cataclasite, laminar and grain-inertial fluidization). Coseismic slip likely nucleated at strength contrasts within the fault zone (i.e., contacts between quartzite breccia and calc-mylonite; quartz ribbons and mylonite matrix; breccia and clay gouge) at ≈ 5–9.5 km depth. Observations including mutually overprinting cataclasite/ultramylonite and exposures of pulverized gouge support that dynamic rupture propagated down-dip through the brittle-ductile transition zone (≈10–11 km depth) and up-dip through velocity-strengthening fault patches (≈0–5 km depth). Rapid fault exhumation increased the geotherm, leading to upward advection of the brittle-ductile transition and shallowing/thinning of the earthquake nucleation zone. This process may explain the rarity of large magnitude earthquakes on low-angle normal faults.

Analysis of impulsive ground motions from February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence

AbstractOn the 6th of February 2023, a large magnitude earthquake (Pazarcık earthquake), $$M_{w}=$$ M w = 7.7, occurred in southeast Türkiye, which caused significant destruction in Türkiye and Syria. Relatively large magnitude aftershocks followed the main shock, and after 9 hours of the main event, another large magnitude earthquake (Elbistan earthquake) occurred, $$M_{w}=$$ M w = 7.6, on a nearby fault. This study analyzes the near-fault seismic signals from earthquakes larger than 5.5 recorded between the main shock and the 31st of March 2023. More than 60 impulsive motions are detected in 3 earthquakes, mostly concentrated in the Pazarcık and Elbistan earthquakes. In the Pazarcık earthquake, many impulsive motions are recorded in near-fault stations with periods of up to 14 s. In contrast, in the Elbistan earthquake, impulsive motions are spatially distributed, with pulse periods of up to 11 s and at distances greater than 150 km. Pulse periods mostly correlate with the magnitude of the earthquake, but pulse probability models do not predict impulsive motions over long distances. The presence of strong impulsive motions in vertical components is also observed. For both earthquakes, peak ground velocities (PGVs) are larger than predicted by ground motion prediction equations. The observation of long-period, large amplitude signals may indicate the presence of a directivity effect for both earthquakes. In some stations, spectral periods exceed the 2018 Turkish building design codes for long periods ($$\ge$$ ≥ 1 s).

Uncertainty in Ground-Motion-to-Intensity Conversions Significantly Affects Earthquake Early Warning Alert Regions

Abstract We examine how the choice of ground-motion-to-intensity conversion equations (GMICEs) in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems affects resulting alert regions. We find that existing GMICEs can underestimate observed shaking at short rupture distances or overestimate the extent of low-intensity shaking. Updated GMICEs that remove these biases would improve the accuracy of alert regions for the ShakeAlert EEW system for the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert uses ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), which calculate spatial distributions of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) from earthquake source estimates, combined with GMICEs to translate GMPE output into modified Mercalli intensity (MMI). We find significant epistemic uncertainty in alert distances; near-source MMI estimates from different GMICEs can differ by over 1 MMI unit, and MMI extents used for public EEW alerts can differ by hundreds of kilometers for larger magnitude earthquakes (M ∼6.5+). We use a catalog of “Did You Feel It?” shaking reports to evaluate how well GMICEs predict observed shaking. Our preferred GMICE is the one that computes MMI using PGV for high intensities and transitions to using PGA for nondamaging intensities. These results motivate updating GMICE relationships more generally, including in ShakeMap applications.

Vertical Elastic Acceleration Response Spectra for Vrancea Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

This study is focused on the evaluation of vertical elastic acceleration response spectra for Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes in Romania in the context of the ongoing update of the national seismic design code. The ground motion database employed in this research consists of about 500 ground motions recorded during moderate and large Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes with moment magnitudes MW ≥ 5.2. The analysis of the dataset showed that a single ground motion recording had a peak ground acceleration larger than 0.20 g. The results of the analyses showed that no significant differences between the control periods of the vertical elastic response spectra as a function of the site class could be inferred. It was also observed that the mean value of the amplification factor computed for the entire ground motion database was about 2.5, irrespective of the earthquake magnitude, site class, or level of horizontal peak ground acceleration. However, larger-magnitude earthquakes generate larger spectral amplifications in the medium- and long-period ranges. The analysis of the ground motions recorded in Bucharest area revealed a magnitude dependency of the control period for the vertical ground motion TC,v. Finally, a single spectral shape for vertical acceleration response spectra characterized by a maximum dynamic amplification factor of 2.5 and control periods TBv and TCv of 0.05 s and 0.60 s is proposed for design purposes. This aspect allows for a major update from the current version of the national seismic design code which proposes control periods of the elastic vertical response spectrum dependent on the horizontal ones. The short-period (at T = 0.2 s) and long-period (at T = 1.0 s) ratios of the vertical acceleration response spectrum to the corresponding horizontal ones are 0.50 and 0.40.