Large Capitalization Stocks Research Articles

A New Value Strategy

Traditional value measures performed poorly in the past three decades. We reevaluate the value strategy using a new measure—the ratio of cash-based operating profitability to price (COP/P)—and find a zero-investment portfolio that buys the highest-COP/P stocks and shorts the lowest-COP/P stocks earns annualized returns of 11% on a value-weighted basis and 13% on an equal-weighted basis. The COP/P effect holds even for large-capitalization stocks, is distinct from known return predictors, and exists even in the most recent decade when book-to-market negatively predicts returns. The COP/P measure subsumes many widely used value measures and the conservative-minus-aggressive investment factor of Fama and French (2015).

Recovering Heterogeneous Beliefs and Preferences from Asset Prices

We propose a novel information-theoretic approach to separately identify the risk preferences and beliefs of different types of financial market investors. Investors who allocate most of their wealth in large market capitalization stocks are risk averse and believe that the aggregate stock market return is strongly countercyclical. In contrast, investors in small-growth stocks are substantially less risk averse and believe in procyclical expected stock market returns. Our findings can reconcile the procyclical expected market returns found in investor survey data with the countercyclical expected returns implied by rational expectations models.

Trends in Us Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising after the Revisionists

Recent studies argue that US inequality has increased less than previously thought, in particular due to a more modest rise of wealth and capital income at the top (Smith et al., 2019; Smith, Zidar and Zwick, 2020; Auten and Splinter, 2019). We examine the claims made in these papers point by point, separating genuine improvements from arguments that do not appear to us well grounded empirically or conceptually. Taking stock of this body of work, and factoring in other improvements, we provide a comprehensive update of our estimates of US income and wealth inequality. Although some of the points raised by the revisionists are valuable, the core quantitative findings of this literature do not appear to be supported by the data. The low capital share of private business income estimated in Smith et al. (2019) is not consistent with the large capital stock of these businesses. In Smith, Zidar and Zwick (2020), the interest rate assigned to the wealthy is higher than in the datasets where both income and wealth can be observed, leading to downward biased top wealth shares; capitalizing equities using almost only dividends dramatically underestimates the wealth of billionaires relative to the Forbes 400. In Auten and Splinter (2019), business profits earned by the top 1% but not taxable (due in particular to generous depreciation rules) are classified as tax evasion; tax evasion is then allocated to the bottom 99% based on an erroneous reading of random audit data. Our revised series show a rise of inequality similar to Saez and Zucman (2016) and Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2018) while allowing for a more granular depiction of the composition of wealth and income at the top.

Herding and capitalization size in the Chinese stock market: a micro-foundation evidence

It is inconclusive for the relationship between herding and capitalization size of stocks in the developed markets while there is a research gap to address this issue for the emerging markets. The existing literature often uses aggregate measures to investigate herding and cannot differentiate autonomous opinion switching from real herding. This paper applies the simulated method of moment estimator proposed by Chen and Lux (Comput Econ 52:711–744, 2018) to investigate the herding in the Chinese stock markets from the perspective of individual investor’s behavior. It is found that both of the large and small capitalization stocks exhibit herding, especially during the 2015 crash. Before the crash, the large stocks have stronger herding than the small stocks. In contrast, during and after the crash, the situation is reversed with the small stocks having stronger herding.

THE IMPACT OF OUTLIERS ON STOCK AND BOND RETURNS

ABSTRACT We examine the impact of large positive and negative returns for bond and stock portfolios. We use Ibbotson Associates' Large-Capitalization Stock and Long-Term Corporate Bond portfolio return series. Previous studies have shown that a stock portfolio's returns are highly impacted by the few extremely large and small returns in the series. We confirm this result for the updated large-capitalization stock return dataset. We extend previous findings by showing that extreme values impact bond returns in a similar manner. We also show the impact of extreme returns on ten to forty year investment periods. Keywords bond and stock returns, return statistics, return outliers

Sentiment analysis and machine learning in finance: a comparison of methods and models on one million messages

We use a large dataset of one million messages sent on the microblogging platform StockTwits to evaluate the performance of a wide range of preprocessing methods and machine learning algorithms for sentiment analysis in finance. We find that adding bigrams and emojis significantly improve sentiment classification performance. However, more complex and time-consuming machine learning methods, such as random forests or neural networks, do not improve the accuracy of the classification. We also provide empirical evidence that the preprocessing method and the size of the dataset have a strong impact on the correlation between investor sentiment and stock returns. While investor sentiment and stock returns are highly correlated, we do not find that investor sentiment derived from messages sent on social media helps in predicting large capitalization stocks return at a daily frequency.

Fat tails in financial return distributions revisited: Evidence from the Korean stock market

This study empirically re-examines fat tails in stock return distributions by applying statistical methods to an extensive dataset taken from the Korean stock market. The tails of the return distributions are shown to be much fatter in recent periods than in past periods and much fatter for small-capitalization stocks than for large-capitalization stocks. After controlling for the 1997 Korean foreign currency crisis and using the GARCH filter models to control for volatility clustering in the returns, the fat tails in the distribution of residuals are found to persist. We show that market crashes and volatility clustering may not sufficiently account for the existence of fat tails in return distributions. These findings are robust regardless of period or type of stock group.

The cash conversion cycle spread

The cash conversion cycle (CCC) refers to the time span between the outlay of cash for purchases to the receipt of cash from sales. It is a widely used metric to gauge the effectiveness of a firm's management and intrinsic need for external financing. This paper shows that a zero-investment portfolio that buys the lowest CCC decile stocks and shorts the highest CCC decile stocks earns 5%–7% alphas per year. The CCC effect is prevalent across industries, remains even for large capitalization stocks, distinct from the known return predictors, and cannot be explained by the financial intermediary leverage risk.

Comparative Analysis of the Energy and CO2 Emissions Performance and Technology Gaps in the Agglomerated Cities of China and South Korea

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the technology gap, energy efficiency, and CO2 emission performance of the agglomerated cities in Eastern and Central China and South Korea under economic heterogeneity. The potential reductions of energy and CO2 emission are estimated from agglomerated city perspectives. The global meta-frontier non-radial direction distance function is used to conduct an empirical analysis of agglomerated cities among Eastern, Central China and South Korea. The results show the potential reduction of 7.58 billion tons of CO2 emissions in Korea and another potential reduction of 1930.62 toe energy for the research period in China, if Korea and China proactively collaborate with each other. The empirical results conclude several unique findings and their implications. First, there are significant differences between the Chinese and Korean cities, in energy efficiency, CO2 emission performance, and meta-technology gaps. Korean cities play a leading role at benchmarking efficiency level with meta-frontier technology. Second, there is no significant difference between total-factor and single-factor performance indexes in the Korean cities, because South Korea requires large capital stocks to replace energy in the production process. However, the opposite is true for Eastern and Central China cities. Finally, there is huge potential for the Chinese cities to reduce energy and CO2 emissions by “catching up” internally as well as by the collaborative efforts with Korean cities.

Micro-Foundation Investigation of Price Manipulation in Indonesian Capital Market

ABSTRACTAn analysis of all intraday trades in the Jakarta Stock Exchange during 2003–2004 indicates that more than half of them are “manipulated” by principal stockbrokers. Consequently, they can earn between 59% and 92% more annually than intermediary stockbrokers, which depend heavily on their investment patterns as well as firm’s characteristics. Specifically, our regression results suggest that with increases in their degree of principalness (PRIN), stockbrokers with a greater trade imbalance earn more at the expense of outside investors, even though this effect diminishes as PRIN increases. Moreover, firms that suffer the most from stockbrokers’ inappropriate behavior have large market capitalization or high stock liquidity.

Pension funds, large capital inflows and stock returns in a thin market

Using unique data about capital flows from the public social security institute ZUS (Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych) to private pension funds OFEs (Otwarte Fundusze Emerytalne) in Poland, we find that their impact, as a group of large institutional investors, on stock returns is statistically significant in short-term but no such effect exists in the long-run. This result is consistent with the temporary price pressure hypothesis of Ben-Rephael et al. (2011). We analyze the capital transfers, in the form of the aggregated pension contributions collected from all employees in the entire Polish economy, from the ZUS to the private pension funds, which further invest this capital on the stock market. The average time for the subsequent reaction of stock prices is found to be 4 days. The trading strategy based on this result generates superior outcomes in comparison with the passive strategy, which further confirms the price impact of capital inflows. Our findings are not only relevant for stock market investors but they also have broader policy implications for stock market regulators and for the national pension regulators.

Buy-Side Competition and Momentum Profits

We show that a new measure of buy-side competition explains momentum profits. The momentum quintile spread is 1.11% when competition is low and negligible when competition is high. Better alphas are attained with superior Sharpe and Sortino ratios, no negative skewness and in more investible strategies featuring value-weighted portfolios and large capitalization stocks. Stock characteristics traditionally related to momentum do not explain our results. Tests based on long-term reversals, the trading patterns of funds, their style peers, distant funds, and retail investors suggest that slow information diffusion explains the large momentum spreads and momentum reversals in low competition markets.

Bank Recapitalizations, Credit Supply, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

We integrate a banking sector in a standard New-Keynesian DSGE model, and examine how government policies to recapitalize banks after a crisis affect the supply of credit and the transmission of monetary policy. We examine two types of recapitalizations: immediate and delayed ones. In the steady state, both policies cause the banking sector to charge inefficiently low lending rates, which leads to an inefficiently large capital stock. Raising bank equity requirements reduces this dynamic inefficiency and increases lifetime utility. After the banking sector suffered large losses, a delay in recapitalizations creates banking sector debt-overhang. This debt-overhang leads to inefficiently high lending rates, which reduces the supply of credit and weakens the transmission of monetary policy to inflation (the transmission to output is largely unchanged). Raising bank equity requirements under these circumstances can cause lifetime utility to decline. Hence, the timing of bank recapitalizations after a crisis has several macro-economic implications.

Tail-Related Risk Measurement and Forecasting in Equity Markets

Parametric, simulation-based and hybrid methods are utilized to estimate various risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Conditional VaR and coherent Expected Shortfall. An exhaustive backtesting analysis is performed for London’s FTSE 100 index and a comparative evaluation of the predictability of the investigated models is performed with the use of various statistical tests. We show that optimal tail risk forecasting necessitates that many factors be considered such as asset structure and capitalization and specific market conditions i.e., normal or crisis periods. Specifically, for large capitalization stocks and long investment horizons parametric modeling accounted for relatively better risk estimation in normal quantiles, whilst for short-term trading strategies, the non-parametric methods are more suitable for measuring extreme tail risk of small-cap stocks.

The Low Volatility Anomaly in Australian Stock Returns

This paper demonstrates that the low volatility anomaly exists in Australian stock returns. Consistent with previous literature on other countries, low realized volatility stocks earn superior risk-adjusted returns than high realized volatility stocks. Our key findings show value-weighted portfolios formed from ASX 300 and ASX All Ords stocks trading the low volatility anomaly have statistically significant annual returns. Not only is this anomaly highly persistent against size, value and momentum factors, but its effect seems to be accentuated in stocks that have larger market capitalization, lower book-to-market ratio and are past winner stocks. Finally, our findings show that the low volatility effect is statistically significant for portfolio holding periods up to 12 months in larger capitalization stocks and robust against a sub-period analysis.

Do Small Indonesian Companies Have a Better Performance in the Stock Market than Larger Ones?

Company specific characteristics, such as size, might have an impact on stock performance. In fact, there is an extensive literature supporting the existence of a small capitalization effect stock in many markets, such as the U.S. (Fama, 1992), UK (Andrikopoulus, 2008)) and Thailand (Alfonso, 2016). In this article the Indonesian case is presented. Indonesia has a growing economy and financial markets and is one of the ASEAN countries. The performance of small and large capitalization stock from 2010 to 2016 was analyzed in this article. The results, at a 5% confidence level, indicate that the assumption that the returns from small and large capitalization stocks for that period being the same cannot be rejected. The result was consistent when analyzing the entire period or when analyzing every single year independently. The test used to compare the performance of small and large capitalization stocks was the Wilcoxon test. The risk adjusted returns were also compared with the conclusion remain the same. The returns of the index as well as the logarithmic returns, during the same, period did not appear to follow a normal distribution. Normal distribution is not an assumption required by the Wilcoxon test. The idea that small capitalization stocks outperformed large capitalization stocks cannot be supported by either the results of the statistical tests or by the actual returns during that period. The finding supports that there are significant differences between the behavior of the stock market in Indonesia and other comparable countries like Thailand.

Personality Traits and Portfolio Tilts Towards Value and Size

We show that personality traits are related to an investor’s preferences for value versus growth stocks and for small capitalization stocks versus large capitalization stocks. We have detailed personality trait data and official register holdings of stocks for 710 individuals in Finland. The results show that more extravagant individuals tend towards large capitalization growth stocks; more impulsive people tend towards small capitalization growth stocks; more sentimental investors tend towards small capitalization value stocks; and more social investors tend towards small capitalization stocks with a tilt towards value. The results are consistent when looking at the portfolio characteristics across investors, over time, when using aggregate portfolios of investors with similar personality traits, and both widely held and non-widely held stocks.

ANALISIS JANUARY EFFECT PADA RETURN SAHAM BERKAPITALISASI BESAR DAN KECIL DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA PADA TAHUN 2004-2007

<p>In the beginning of the year, stock’s return has an abnormal return. Small capital stocks produce better return than the large capital stocks which listed in Bursa Efek Jakarta (BEJ). This anomaly is known as January Effect. That’s why, when turn over especially occurs in the beginning of trading market activity, many investor will invest their assets in small capital stocks. This research tries to found out whether there is or there isn’t January effect anomaly in Bursa Efek Jakarta in 2004 till 2007. This research uses non probability method which choses 30 stocks in each category. The significance level of the research is always bigger than 0.05 and the result shows us that there is no January effect in Bursa Efek Jakarta (BEJ) from 2004 till 2007.</p><p> </p><p>Key Words- Return, January Effect. Stocks</p>

Measuring and Monitoring the Efficiency of Markets

Market efficiency is measured by arbitrage proximity. The magnitude of probability distortion necessary to remove drift calibrates the efficiency. Simulations of bilateral gamma models estimated on a year's past returns yield empirical acceptability indices for each day for each asset. The assets covered include, equities, commodities, currencies and volatility. It is observed that efficiency in equity is related to the up side gamma process having more frequent and smaller jumps than its down side counterparts. For commodities the situation is reversed. The relative inefficiency of the absence of trading is noted on comparing close to open return efficiencies those for open to close returns. Small capitalization stocks trade more efficiently than large capitalization stocks. Sector exchange traded funds trade more efficiently than the S&P 500 index. Furthermore, economic activity reflected in greater high lows spreads enhances market efficiency.

Company Size Effect in the Stock Market of Thailand

The outperformance of small capitalization companies over large capitalization companies is a well-known occurrence in developed markets (Gorn, 1962), (Jacobs, 1989) with (Banz, 1981) numerically showing that this effect on stocks in the New York Stock Exchange. This phenomenon is based on the idea that some company specific characteristics can have a statistically significant impact on stock performance. The existence, or otherwise of this effect in emerging markets has received less attention. Given the very different characteristics of emerging markets compared to mature markets like the US is not immediately evident that the same conclusions can be extrapolated. One of the immediate clear differences between emerging and mature markets is the depth with markets like the US having a large amount of listed companies as well as large average trading volumes. In fact, when this analysis has been repeated in some emerging markets, such as Sri Lanka, the results seem to indicate that there is no statistically appreciable difference between the return of small and large capitalization stocks (Macn, 2013). It should be noted that in the case of the Sri Lanka case there were only, at the time of the article, 25 listed companies, of which only 12 were included in the analysis. The specific case of the stock market of Thailand is analyzed in this paper. The results of this article seem to point towards the existence of a size effect, affecting stock performance, in the Thai stock market. Some articles covering emerging market as a whole as pointed towards the opposite results. Given the substantial differences among emerging markets countries it is perhaps a better approach to follow an individualized analysis, country per country, rather than treat it as a homogenous group.