Understanding the impact of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) on carbon sequestration (Cseq) and emission leads to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). For this, Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Sustainable Development (SD) scenarios were examined in Azarshar city, Iran which is faced with urban intensification. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the carbon cycle and influences of various urban growth indicators are still unclear even under climate change, rapid urbanization, and ecological deterioration. In this research, total carbon storage (Cts) and Cseq were determined at four carbon pools i.e., aboveground carbon (AGC), belowground carbon (BGC), dead organic carbon (DeOC), and soil organic carbon (SOC). This research revealed a successful implementation of integrated CA-Markov and InVEST models in delineating LULC changes between 2013 and 2033. It was concluded that land resources management play a crucial role in decreasing Cseq along with increasing carbon emission across the study area. The modelling results showed a significant shifting from barren and cropland to developed land uses. This research goes beyond providing supporting evidence that urban expansion is a key factor driving the aforementioned changes, but also illustrates the importance of remote sensing in ecological modelling, especially where information is sparse.