Land Use Patterns Research Articles

Quantitative prediction of water quality in Dongjiang Lake watershed based on LUCC

Land Use/ Cover Change (LUCC) plays a crucial role in influencing hydrological processes, nutrient cycling, and sediment transport in watersheds, ultimately impacting water quality on both spatial and temporal scales. Accurately predicting changes in watershed water quality is beneficial for the sustainable management of water resources. Current models often lack the ability to effectively predict water quality changes in a dynamic spatio-temporal context, particularly in complex watershed environments. The overall purpose of the study is to establish a comprehensive and dynamic modeling framework that links LUCC with water quality, allowing for accurate predictions of future water quality under varying land use scenarios. The model, which uses water quality as the dependent variable and LUCC as the independent variable, was developed to quantitatively predict changes in watershed water quality. To achieve this, annual multi-period remote sensing images from Landsat-5, Landsat-8 or Sentinel-2 satellites spanning from 1992 to 2022 were analyzed. Random Forest (achieving a Kappa coefficient of 0.9468) were employed to classify land use within the watershed. Based on classification results, a Cellular Automata-Markov chain model (CA-Markov) was constructed to simulate and predict the spatio-temporal patterns of land use, incorporating driving factors such as proximity to water systems, roads, elevation, and slope. Validation of the model using LUCC data from 2020 yielded a high prediction accuracy with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9505. The CA-Markov model was further utilized to project LUCC under three different scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, and arable land protection—between 2023 and 2033. Based on these projections, the coupled water quality and LUCC model was employed to predict water quality changes in the watershed over the same period. Key findings indicate that water quality is likely to improve under ecological protection scenario, while deterioration is expected under natural development scenario and cropland protection scenario due to urban expansion, agricultural practices, and water diversion for irrigation. This study provides a robust framework for watershed management, offering scientific guidance for source management and water purification efforts, thereby contributing significantly to the sustainable development of water resources.

The impact of land-use policy on household energy transition: Evidence from China's conversion of cropland to forestland program

The implementation of the Conversion of Cropland to Forestland Program (CCFP) has affected land-use patterns and biomass availability in China, consequently reshaping household energy consumption patterns. Utilizing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this study employs a multinomial logit model to examine the impact of CCFP subsidies on household energy transitions, analyzed through the lenses of the energy ladder and energy types. Additionally, this study differentiates the effects of CCFP subsidies across households with varying characteristics. The empirical results reveal that, from the energy ladder perspective, CCFP subsidies hinder household energy transitions from biomass to both traditional and advanced commercial energy sources. From the energy type perspective, the subsidies impede transitions from biomass energy to coal, electricity, and LPG/LNG. These adverse effects may be attributed to the CCFP subsidy's role in increasing biomass supply and encouraging the use of biomass energy equipment. Moreover, the impacts of CCFP subsidies differ among households based on education level, location, and degree of engagement in farming. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering land use policies and patterns in the formulation of energy policies aimed at promoting energy transition and alleviating energy poverty.

Investigating soils of barrows in the Rozumice Forest (SW Poland) – Dynamics of soil and landscape evolution in a Central European loess plateau

Soil properties reflect a host of environmental conditions and land-use patterns. Formation of cultural landscapes may well be studied at barrow cemeteries, which give the opportunity of comparing the properties of buried soils, the material building the mounds and the present-day soil cover. Current archaeo-pedological research on Late Neolithic long-barrows indicates a widespread Early Holocene presence of fertile chernozemic soils in the loess zone in Silesia (SW Poland) and their subsequent transformation (en masse) into Luvisols during the Subboreal and Subatlantic. Since the timing of the transformation remains a question – to elaborate the regional chronosequence of soil evolution – we examined the barrow cemetery in the Rozumice Forest, presumably of early medieval age. We assessed the chronology of the burial mounds and properties of the soil record by analysis of ALS data and magnetometer survey, as well as pedological and archaeobotanical analyses and 14C dating of samples from cores extracted from four of the barrows. The results show that the barrows in the Rozumice Forest were most likely built in the Early Middle Ages (7-9th c. AD) using local Luvisol (clay-illuvial soil) material, after vegetation clearance by fire. The buried Luvisols found beneath the mounds bear traces of human land-use – settlement and/or agriculture during the Late Neolithic, and may be polygenetic, being the result of transformation of Early Holocene chernozemic soils.

Rediscovering the location of agricultural production: Spatial linkage of farmland use intensity and labor opportunity costs in Central China

Agricultural location theory was the earliest work to reveal the land use and agricultural layout of urban suburbs; however, there is an increasing difference between Dunn's theoretical model and modern agricultural layouts, and there is thus an urgent need to establish new theoretical relationships. In this work, we sought to reveal new patterns of modern suburban agricultural land use using remote sensing data and land economics knowledge. We used remote sensing data to obtain first-hand land-use information while considering the attractiveness of the urban center to labor, and we explored the impact of agricultural opportunity costs on agricultural land use. We found that agricultural land use in suburbs in Central China have four obvious layers: dominance of built-up areas, dominance of single cropping, dominance of double cropping, and dominance of triple cropping. From the perspective of planting patterns, with increasing distance from the city center, the proportion of single-cropping areas decreases from 60% to 20%, that of double-cropping areas increases from 20% to 70%, that of triple-cropping areas always remains below 10%, and the multiple-cropping index increases from 120% to 180%. From the perspective of land economics and considering labor cost, planting profits decrease with increasing distance from the city center. The increasing attractiveness of the urban center to migrant workers significantly weakens farmers' willingness to plant. From the perspective of the circle structure, before 2000, farmers' planting profits were higher than the opportunity costs in all regions; after 2000, farmers with arable land within a 40-km radius of the center may have been more inclined to choose farming, while those with land outside this 40-km radius may have been more inclined to work elsewhere. Under changing agricultural policies, farmers' planting profits increased to a historical high, but profits became negative in all regions after 2015, and the willingness of people to farm reached a historical low. With this work, we continue the development of the hierarchical structure model of The Location of Agricultural Production and summarize new laws of modern agricultural land use from the perspectives of remote sensing data and land economics, supplementing and enriching agricultural location theory.

Land-Use Conflict Dynamics, Patterns, and Drivers under Rapid Urbanization

Land-Use Conflict Dynamics, Patterns, and Drivers under Rapid Urbanization

Leveraging atmospheric moisture recycling in Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries for irrigation and afforestation planning

Effective irrigation planning is crucial for sustainable agricultural development and ecosystem restoration projects in arid regions. With respect to ambitious greening initiatives, Saudi Arabia is establishing a national strategy toward a more sustainable and eco-friendly future not only for itself but also for the broader Middle East region. Thus, comprehensively understanding the water cycle in the region is essential to identify the most suitable target locations for afforestation and reforestation while considering the potential role of irrigation. Herein, in addition to traditional pedoclimatic factors, we introduce a complementary consideration—“irrigation recycling.” Building on the well-established concept of atmospheric moisture recycling and taking advantage from an atmospheric trajectory dataset, we track the path of evaporated water from current or potential irrigated sites to the location where the evaporated water eventually falls as precipitation. Our analysis offers two key benefits. First, it helps pinpoint the regions in which and the periods during which water recycling is maximum within the country, aiding more precise calculations of the investment return value for irrigation infrastructures. Second, it helps identify the land-use change patterns that contribute to international efforts such as drought mitigation in East Africa as an example. We found that one-third of the actual precipitation in the current Saudi irrigated sites originated from evapotranspiration over land, mainly from Saudi Arabia and surrounding countries. Interestingly, most of the evapotranspiration from these irrigated sites will eventually fall somewhere over land (primarily in Iran). Controlling the seasonality and spatial distribution of the future irrigation expansion will allow controlling the atmospheric moisture recirculation in Saudi Arabia and nearby drought-prone regions such as Eastern Africa. The outcomes of this study will be the subject of future integrated assessments to account for the climatic feedbacks of the land-use change scenarios. At present, they provide crucial insights to support the decision-making process surrounding the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives. Further, the presented methodology offers a pragmatic framework that can be applied to similar greening projects for other regions, making it a viable and valuable approach for global sustainability programs.

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Changes in Cropland Occupation and Supplementation Area in the Pearl River Delta and Their Impacts on Carbon Storage

In recent years, the “dual carbon” issue has become a major focus of the international community. Changes in land use driven by anthropogenic activities have a profound impact on ecosystem structure and carbon cycling. This study quantitatively assesses the spatiotemporal changes in cropland occupation and supplementation in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model, analyzing the spatial clustering of carbon storage changes caused by variations in cropland area. The PLUS model was employed to simulate land-use patterns and the spatial distribution of carbon storage in four future development scenarios. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the net change rate of cropland area in the Pearl River Delta was −0.81%, with a decrease of 16.49 km2 in cropland area, primarily converted to built-up land and forest land. (2) Carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta exhibited a pattern of lower values in the center and higher values in the periphery. The terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta was 534.62 × 106 t in 2000, 518.60 × 106 t in 2010, and 512.57 × 106 t in 2020, showing an overall decreasing trend. The conversion of cropland and forest land was the main reason for the decline in total regional carbon storage. (3) The area of carbon sequestration lost due to cropland occupation was significantly greater than the area of carbon loss compensated by new cropland, indicating an imbalance in the quality of cropland occupation and supplementation as a crucial factor contributing to regional carbon loss. (4) Under the ecological priority scenario, the expansion of built-up land and the reduction in ecological land such as cropland and forest land were effectively controlled, resulting in the minimal loss of carbon storage. The soil organic carbon pool of cropland is the most active carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and has a significant impact on carbon storage. Clarifying the relationship between “cropland protection measures–land use changes–ecosystem carbon storage” will improve cropland protection policies, provide references for regional carbon sequestration enhancement, and support sustainable socio-economic development.

Changing Pattern and Drivers of Land Use and Land Cover in Bagmati Province of Nepal

Land use and land cover (LULC) represents the physical component of the Earth's environment, and often changes as a result of natural and anthropogenic activities. This study carried out changing patterns and orientations of LULC types of Bagmati province of Nepal by using satellite images between 1996 and 2016. The study applied a classification scheme through support vector machines (SVM) for the period from 1996 to 2006, and 2006 to 2016. Our study explored that built-up area expansion was the major change witnessed which increased from 85.25 km2 in 1996 and sharply increased and labeled 250.06 km2 in 2016. Similarly, the forest land of the province increased by 329.02 km2 between 1996 and 2016. The status of cultivated land was found slightly decreasing trend, which was noted at 6113.50 km2 in 1996 and labeled at 5725.82 km2 in 2016. The shrubland of the province declined by 272.03 km2 from 1851.67 km2 in 1996 to 1579.64 km2 in 2016. However, the status of snow/ ice cover found at fluctuated form, which was noted 774.27 km2 in 1996, 1297.43 km2 in 2006, and 828.92 km2 in 2016. The increasing population trend is the main driver of the high rate of built-up area expansion and contraction of the cultivated land. Community forestry programs highly supported the expansion of forest cover. The proper implementation and improvement of the existing policy are the major concerns for sustainable LULC management in the province.

Progress in Ecosystem Services Research Under the Evolution of Land Use Landscape Patterns

Land use change (LUUC) is the most intuitive reflection of human activities and a key driver causing changes in ecosystem types and landscape pattern evolution [162]. Changes in land use patterns, structure, composition, intensity, and spatial patterns due to natural and anthropogenic factors affect ecosystem processes such as species movement, soil erosion, and patterns of biodiversity distribution, which in turn affect a wide range of ecosystem services, such as food provisioning, flood storage, soil retention, and soil and water conservation, and ultimately affect human well-being. Most studies have shown that changes in land use landscape patterns affect ecosystem services through multiple pathways, including changes in biodiversity, ecosystem processes and habitats. Land use change and ecosystem services have a reciprocal relationship, and the evolution of land use landscape pattern will directly affect or change the structure and function of ecosystems, which ultimately affects ecosystem services, while the results of the ecosystem services assessment can also provide a scientific basis for the formulation of relevant policies. Therefore, understanding the relationship between the evolution of land-use landscape patterns and the response of ecosystem services can not only clearly reveal the process of land-use landscape evolution, but also more accurately assess the function of ecosystem services, which can promote the scientific formulation and effective implementation of relevant planning and protection policies.

A multidisciplinary approach using hydrogeochemistry, δ15NNO3 isotopes, land use, and statistical tools in evaluating nitrate pollution sources and biochemical processes in Costa Rican volcanic aquifers

Nitrate pollution threatens the Barva and Colima multi-aquifer system, the primary drinking water source in the Greater Metropolitan Area of Costa Rica. In addressing nitrate contamination dynamics, this study proposes an integrated approach by combining multivariate statistical analyses, hydrochemical parameters, sewage discharge, and regional land-use and land-cover patterns to assess the extent and degree of contamination, dominant biogeochemical processes, and refine the interpretation of nitrate sources previously derived solely from δ15NNO3 information. Over seven years (2015–2022), 714 groundwater samples from 43 sites were analyzed for nitrate and major ions, including two sampling campaigns for dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, nitrite, ammonium, FeTotal, MnTotal, and δ15NNO3 analyses. The findings presented elevated nitrate concentrations in urban and agricultural/urban areas, surpassing the Maximum Concentration Levels on several occasions, and oxidizing conditions favoring mineralization and nitrification processes in unconfined Barva and locally confined Upper Colima/Lower Colima aquifers. Similar nitrate contents and spatial patterns in agricultural and urban zones in the shallow Barva aquifer suggest comparable contributions from nitrogen fertilizers and urban wastewaters despite the gradual increase in urban land cover and the reduction of agricultural areas. Isotopic analyses and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) indicate a shift in nitrate sources from agricultural to urban areas in both Barva and Colima aquifers. Principal Component and Hierarchical Cluster Analyses link land use, nitrate sources, and water quality. Three distinct sample clusters aligned with forest/grassland, agricultural/urban, and urban land use, emphasizing the impact of anthropogenic activities on groundwater quality, even in the deeper Colima aquifers. The study challenges nitrate isotope mixing models, enhancing accuracy in identifying pollution sources and assessing the spatial extent of contamination by incorporating DOC and other hydrochemical parameters. Similar outcomes, with and without the use of nitrate isotopes, reinforce the usefulness of the integrated approach, providing a practical and cost-effective alternative.

A Critical Analysis of the Standard Urban Model in the Context of Greater Manchester

This study critically examines the applicability of the Standard Urban Model (SUM) in the context of Greater Manchester, utilizing empirical data and spatial analysis to explore its operational limitations and potentials. Originally conceptualized by William Alonso, the SUM provides a theoretical framework to understand intra-urban economic dynamics predicated on a monocentric city structure. Through a comprehensive dataset encompassing census demographics, housing prices, and GIS-mapped land-use patterns from 2015, this paper investigates the models ability to predict and describe urban land rent gradients and residential distribution relative to the citys Central Business District (CBD). The findings indicate that while the SUM may provide a generalized view of urban structure, it significantly underestimates the socio-economic diversities, technological advancements, and cultural influences that are inherent in urban development. Particularly, the analysis reveals that rental price declines with distance from the CBD are not as pronounced as predicted by the SUM, with a low coefficient of determination (R=0.2551). Furthermore, the study highlights how urban development in Manchester deviates from the monocentric model due to historical shifts, regeneration efforts, and the emergence of multi-centric hubs. This research underscores the necessity for adapting urban economic models to reflect the complexities and dynamic nature of modern cities, suggesting a shift towards more nuanced and flexible frameworks that accommodate the multifaceted influences on urban landscapes.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China

Changes in land use patterns, types, and intensities significantly impact ecosystem services. This study follows the time series logic from history to the expected future to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes in Ezhou and their potential impacts on the ecosystem services value (ESV). The results show that the Markov–FLUS model has strong applicability in predicting the spatial pattern of land use, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9433 and a FoM value of 0.1080. Between 2000 and 2020, construction land expanded continuously, while water area remained relatively stable, and other land types experienced varying degrees of contraction. Notably, the area of construction land expanded significantly compared to 2000, and it expanded by 70.99% in 2020. Moreover, the watershed area expanded by 9.30% from 2000 to 2010, but there was very little change in the following 10 years. Under the three scenarios, significant differences in land use changes were observed in Ezhou City, driven by human activities, particularly the strong expansion of construction land. In the inertial development scenario, construction land expanded to 313.39 km2 by 2030, representing a 38.30% increase from 2020. Conversely, under the farmland protection scenario, construction land increased to 237.66 km2, a 4.89% rise from 2020. However, in the ecological priority development scenario, the construction land area expanded to 253.59 km2, a 10.13% increase from 2020. Compared to 2020, the ESV losses in the inertia development and farmland protection scenarios were USD 4497.71 and USD 1072.23, respectively, by 2030. Conversely, the ESV under the ecological protection scenario increased by USD 2749.09, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological protection in Ezhou City’s development. This study may provide new clues for the formulation of regional strategies for sustainable land use and ecosystem restoration.

Land Governance and Fragmentation Patterns of Agricultural Land Use in Southern Romania during 1990–2020

Land Governance and Fragmentation Patterns of Agricultural Land Use in Southern Romania during 1990–2020

Assessing land-use changes and carbon storage: a case study of the Jialing River Basin, China

Land-use change is the main driver of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, domestic and international studies mainly focus on the impact of carbon storage changes on climate, while studies on the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in complex terrestrial ecosystems are few. The Jialing River Basin (JRB), with a total area of ~ 160,000 km2, diverse topography, and elevation differences exceeding 5 km, is an ideal case for understanding the complex interactions between land-use change and carbon storage dynamics. Taking the JRB as our study area, we analyzed land-use changes from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we simulated land-use patterns for business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS model. Additionally, we assessed carbon storage using the InVEST model. This approach helps us to accurately understand the carbon change processes in regional complex terrestrial ecosystems and to formulate scientifically informed land-use policies. The results revealed the following: (1) Cropland was the most dominant land-use type (LUT) in the region, and it was the only LUT experiencing net reduction, with 92.22% of newly designated construction land originating from cropland. (2) In the JRB, total carbon storage steadily decreased after 2005, with significant spatial heterogeneity. This pattern was marked by higher carbon storage levels in the north and lower levels in the south, with a distinct demarcation line. The conversion of cropland to construction land is the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage. (3) Compared with the BAU and EP scenarios, the CP scenario demonstrated a smaller reduction in cropland area, a smaller addition to construction land area, and a lower depletion in the JRB total carbon storage from 2020 to 2035. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the PLUS and InVEST models in analyzing complex ecosystems and offers data support for quantitatively assessing regional ecosystem services. Strict adherence to the cropland replenishment task mandated by the Chinese government is crucial to increase cropland areas in the JRB and consequently enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of its ecosystem. Such efforts are vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB, particularly in the pursuit of the “dual-carbon” objective.

A rapid approach with machine learning for quantifying the relative burden of antimicrobial resistance in natural aquatic environments

The massive use and discharge of antibiotics have led to increasing concerns about antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in natural aquatic environments. Since the dose-response mechanisms of pathogens with AMR have not yet been fully understood, and the antibiotic resistance genes and bacteria-related data collection via field sampling and laboratory testing is time-consuming and expensive, designing a rapid approach to quantify the burden of AMR in the natural aquatic environment has become a challenge. To cope with such a challenge, a new approach involving an integrated machine-learning framework was developed by investigating the associations between the relative burden of AMR and easily accessible variables (i.e., relevant environmental variables and adjacent land-use patterns). The results, based on a real-world case analysis, demonstrate that the quantification speed has been reduced from 3-7 days, which is typical for traditional measurement procedures with field sampling and laboratory testing, to approximately 0.5 hours using the new approach. Moreover, all five metrics for AMR relative burden quantification exceed the threshold level of 85%, with F1-score surpassing 0.92. Compared to logistic regression, decision trees, and basic random forest, the adaptive random forest model within the framework significantly improves quantification accuracy without sacrificing model interpretability. Two environmental variables, dissolved oxygen and resistivity, along with the proportion of green areas were identified as three key feature variables for the rapid quantification. This study contributes to the enrichment of burden analyses and management practices for rapid quantification of the relative burden of AMR without dose-response information.

A user-friendly method for estimating discrete choice land-use model in a panel data setting

Land-use modeling stands as a pivotal tool in shaping sustainable development policies. With the rapid advancement of remote-sensing technology and the widespread adoption of satellite imagery-based land cover products, these datasets have emerged as primary sources for understanding land-use dynamics due to their high spatial and temporal resolutions. Yet, it remains challenging to effectively integrate such rich panel data into nonlinear econometric land-use models. This paper introduces a method to seamlessly incorporate land cover panel data into econometric models, enabling comprehensive utilization of temporal information within a single framework.-By capturing dynamic land-use patterns, the method enhances prediction accuracy while mitigating issues such as autocorrelated error terms commonly encountered in panel data analysis.-The method is straightforward to implement and applicable to many nonlinear models, making it particularly suitable for datasets with large sample sizes.

Land use patterns influence in the soil microbial composition

Studies on the impact of land-use patterns on soil health and sustainability have indicated that land-use changes and unsuitable agricultural practices are key driving factors in the degradation of soil. However, the impact of land-use patterns on soil microbial diversity is not entirely consistent or known, and the specific effects of environmental factors need to be further considered. This study explored the impact of three different land-use patterns—rotation land (RL), garden land (GL), and uncultivated land (UL)—on soil health in a farming region by analyzing the soil physicochemical properties and the diversity of the soil bacterial and fungal communities. In this study, the results showed that the soil pH of GL was significantly lower than that of RL and UL, total nitrogen was lowest in GL, and available potassium and soil organic carbon were higher in RL and GL than in UL. The impact of the land-use patterns on microbial diversity was somewhat inconsistent, but greater on soil bacteria than fungi, with 17 bacterial and 4 fungal metabolic pathways showing significant differences. In particular, a decrease in the relative abundance of dominant bacteria was observed in GL. The land-use patterns had little impact on fungal functional genes; however, plant pathogen-related fungi were significantly higher in GL than in RL and UL. Overall, these results indicate that while the soil basic nutrients in different land-use patterns were high, long-term single planting (GL) still had a negative impact on the health and sustainability of the soil, especially owing to low soil pH. Therefore, when evaluating the effect of different planting systems on soil health, it is necessary to consider the true effect of local agricultural measures on soil properties and microbial community composition, and monitor for microbial diseases in the field to determine the impact of land-use patterns on crop production.

Dams alter the control pattern of watershed land use to riverine nutrient distribution: Comparison of three major rivers under different hydropower development levels in Southwestern China

Land use plays a critical role in managing water quality in a watershed, as it governs the import and distribution of nutrients. In addition to the land use, some rivers in Southwest China are encountering a new environmental stressor of damming, which is being driven by the national strategy of hydropower development. However, the coupling effect of land use and dams on nutrients remains poorly understood, challenging the effective management of riverine water quality. Therefore, this study examined the nutrients in the Nu, Yarlung Tsangpo (YT), and Lancang (LC) Rivers, which have no dam, 1 dam, and 11 dams, respectively, during different regulatory periods (spring and fall) to identify variations in nutrient control patterns influenced by land use and dams. The findings suggested that an increase in hydropower development contributed to a notable shift in nutrient patterns from land use regulation towards dam regulation and coupling effects. Land use dominated the nutrient variations of the Nu (27.4 %–32.8 %) and low hydropower development YT (25.2 %–30.9 %) Rivers during both seasons, but the primary contributors to the nutrient variations of the high hydropower development LC River were dams (17.9 %–41.6 %) and coupling effects (16.5 %–29.0 %). Dams transform nutrient levels and compositions through internal reservoir cycling, decoupling land use and nutrients. Partial least-squares structural equation model analysis further suggested that the coupling effects of the LC River were seasonal-specific, which was primarily attributed to hydrological variations that affected their interactions. During spring, the reservoir underwent a drainage mode characterized by high-level nutrients in the bottom water. Combined with the import of riverine nutrients, it exacerbated the increase of nutrients (synergistic effect). In contrast, the reservoir transitioned into a storage mode where it intercepted nutrients from the upstream and watershed during the fall, leading to a reduction in the previously observed increasing trend and an increase in nutrient variability (antagonism effect).

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Jiangxi Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

Land-use changes are an important factor affecting the change in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the relationship between land-use changes and carbon storage provides reliable data support for optimizing regional land-use structure and maintaining regional carbon balance. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, we first analyzed the land-use changes; then simulated the land-use pattern under three scenarios (i.e., natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios) in 2030 based on the PLUS model; and finally estimated the carbon storage change in the past (i.e., 1990-2020) and future periods (i.e., three scenarios in 2030) using the InVEST model, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics, and proposed the corresponding suggestions. The results showed:① The carbon storage in Jiangxi Province showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2020, with a total reduction of 4.58×107 t. The increase in the water bodies and construction land and the decrease in cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and unused land was the major cause. ② The carbon storage under natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios in Jiangxi Province in 2030 were 2.20×109, 2.24×109 and 2.19×109 t, respectively. ③ The carbon storage under the three scenarios showed similar spatial characteristics, wherein the high carbon storage was distributed in northern, northwest, and western regions, and the low carbon storage was distributed near the central region. These results can provide data support for future land spatial planning and improving the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Jiangxi Province.

Optimization of land-use pattern based on suitability and trade-offs between land development and protection: A case study of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos (HBO) area in Inner Mongolia, China

Determining comprehensive land-use suitability is crucial for effective zoning management. However, limited research on land-use multi-suitability and the trade-offs between land development and protection hinder optimal environmental management. This study focuses on the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos (HBO) area in Inner Mongolia, China, known for its unique geographical attributes, including abundant energy resources, potential arable land, and vulnerable ecological environment. The objective is to determine comprehensive land-use suitability for ecological protection, agricultural production, and urban construction, while addressing the trade-offs involved in land-use multi-suitability. Multi-scenarios were conducted based on multi-suitability using quantitative indicators, such as per capita space occupancy, patch density, and conductance index. The most suitable scenario, identified through these comparisons, was subsequently optimized for the HBO area by addressing land conflict zones using the InVEST model. The results revealed that: (1) Extremely suitable areas for ecological protection, agricultural production, and urban construction accounted for 47.75%, 18.19%, and 8.61% of the HBO area, respectively, indicating significant potential for ecological conservation. (2) Trade-offs were categorized into six scenarios based on land-use multi-suitability. The ecological-agricultural priority scenario demonstrated reasonable space allocation, the highest landscape agglomeration and connectivity, making it the most suitable option for optimizing the land-use pattern. (3) The optimized zoning delineated the ecological protection red line (EPR), which accounted for the highest percentage at 40.71%, while the urban reserve area (URA) was minimal, constituting only 1.28%. The primary goal of zoning management is to curb urban expansion and alleviate ecological degradation through effective strategies. Consequently, regulatory strategies focusing on management zoning were proposed. Overall, this study developed a comprehensive index system for land-use suitability, providing a method for balancing land development and protection. The findings offer a scientific reference for sustainable development in the HBO area and other regions with similar natural environmental backgrounds.