Land Use Patterns Research Articles

Measuring integrated accessibility for sustainable mobility: a fuzzy set approach case study

AbstractSustainable transportation is vital to climate justice and social equity. Despite the efforts to achieve sustainability, there is still a lack of adequate measurement that integrates land use and transportation systems, which can be barriers to planning implementation. With methodological improvements in fuzzy theory application, this study develops an integrated index to measure the sustainability of multimodal accessibility. We do so by defining a fuzziness degree based on the different trip purposes and modes of transportation with a case study in Isfahan, Iran. Sustainable accessibility indicators were developed for walking, biking, and public transportation to represent the performance of each transportation system, considering the integration with land-use patterns. We analyze transportation modes and the accessibility to five main urban activities, including employment opportunities, education, healthcare, shopping, and recreation services, based on the travel distances, followed by a statistical integration method with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) for each travel mode. The outcome provides insights for urban planners and transportation planners to effectively evaluate the degree of integration between transportation and land-use systems and contribute to enhancing sustainable accessibility.

Evaluation of Effectiveness and Multi-Scenario Analysis of Land Use Development Strategies and Ecological Protection Redlines on Carbon Storage in the Great Bay Area of China Using the PLUS-InVEST-PSM Model

Land use change is a key factor affecting the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. Most studies focus on formulating different land development strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of land development, while fewer discuss the effectiveness of these strategies. In the context of varying socio-economic development and limited budgets for ecological conservation, evaluating effectiveness is essential for selecting the most suitable land development strategy. This research proposed a Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation-Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs–Propensity Score Matching (PLUS-InVEST-PSM) model to evaluate the effectiveness of different land use development strategies in the Greater Bay Area of China as a case study. Specifically, this study analyzed the historical land use changes from 2000 to 2020 and mapped the multi-scenario patterns of land use and carbon storage with the PLUS and the InVEST models from 2030 to 2050. Then, this study employed the PSM model, along with a series of criteria (i.e., similar ecological backgrounds and parallel historical trends), to evaluate the effectiveness of the ecological development strategy and ecological protection redlines on carbon storage compared with the natural development strategy. The results indicate that the ecological development strategy and the ecological protection redline can prevent the decline in carbon storage. However, in the ecological development strategy, implementing the ecological redline policy may hinder the growth of carbon storage within the ecological redline area. Compared with the PLUS-InVEST-PSM model, the comparison between the subregions could underestimate the efficiencies of evaluation, partly due to underestimating the negative impact of urban development on carbon storage. These findings will help governments develop comprehensive and systematic land use policies to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Also, the approach would help to further explore the broader impacts of land use development strategies on the overall regional ecological environment, such as biodiversity and ecosystem services.

A Simple Neural Network for Estimating Fine Sediment Sources Using XRF and XRD

Suspended sediment (SS) has a wide range of negative effects such as increased water turbidity, altered habitat structures, sedimentation, and effects on hydraulic systems and environmental engineering projects. Nevertheless, the methods for accurately determining SS sources on a basin-scale are poorly understood. Herein, we used a simplified neural network analysis (NNA) model to identify the sources of SS in Japan’s Oromushi River Catchment Basin. Fine soil samples were collected from different locations of the catchment basin, processed, and separately analysed using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The sampling stations were grouped according to the type of soil cover, vegetation type and land-use pattern. The geochemical components of each group were fed into the same neural network layer, and a series of equations were applied to estimate the sediment contribution from each group to the downstream side of the river. Samples from the same sampling locations were also analysed by XRD, and the obtained peak intensity values were used as the input in the NNA model. SS mainly originated from agricultural fields, with regions where the ground is covered with volcanic ash identified as the key sources through XRF and XRD analysis, respectively. Therefore, based on the nature of the surface soil cover and the land use pattern in the catchment basin, NNA was found to be a reliable data analytical technique. Moreover, XRD analysis does not incorporate carbon, and also provides detailed information on crystalline phases. The results obtained in this study, therefore, do not depend on seasonal uncertainty due to organic matter.

The “Ruined Landscapes” of Mediterranean Islands: An Ecological Framework for Their Restoration in the Context of SDG 15 “Life on Land”

The “ruined landscapes” of the Mediterranean littoral are a consequence of millennia of human impact and include abandoned agricultural lands, deforested areas, and degraded coastal areas. One of the drivers is the historical pattern of land use, which has resulted in the clearing of vegetation, soil erosion, and overgrazing. These have caused significant damage to natural ecosystems and landscapes leading to soil degradation, loss of biodiversity, and the destruction of habitats. The UN Sustainable Development Goal 15 “Life on Land” recommends a substantial increase in afforestation (SDG 15.2). Whilst this goal is certainly necessary in places, it should be implemented with caution. The general perception that certain ecosystems, such as forests, are inherently more valuable than grasslands and shrublands contributes to afforestation drives prioritising quick and visible results. This, however, increases the possibility of misguided afforestation, particularly in areas that never supported forests under the present climatic conditions. We argue that in areas that have not supported forest ecosystems, targeted reinforcement of existing populations and recreation of historical ones is preferable to wholesale ecosystem modification disguised as afforestation. We present a possible strategy for targeted reinforcement in areas that never supported forests and that would still achieve the goals of SDGs 15.5 and 15.8.

How do trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization affect regional carbon balance? A case study from China’s Yellow River Basin

Anthropogenic activities, including trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization, alter land use by either adding or subtracting from the carbon balance. Therefore, it is unknown how the trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization impact the regional carbon balance. We selected the Yellow River Basin for this study to shed light on how human activity affects the carbon balance and promote the advancement of the objective of becoming carbon–neutral. Using panel data, soil respiration data, and GEM-CO2 models, carbon emissions and sinks in multiple fields were quantified on a raster scale based on multi-source remote sensing data. The trade-offs between urbanization and ecological construction were then spatially illustrated through changes in ground cover. Finally, a raster-scale study was conducted to investigate the ways in which trade-offs between urbanization and ecological construction impact the regional carbon balance. The basin was able to maintain a carbon balance in 2001; however, by 2019, it experienced a severe carbon imbalance. The primary causes of this were rapid growth in energy consumption and direct household waste incineration. By 2019, 84.79% of rasters had a trade-off connection, indicating an increasing trend in the degree of trade-off between ecological construction and urbanization. This affected the pattern of land use in the basin, which in turn affected the carbon balance. Rapid urbanization has exacerbated the carbon imbalance, but ecological construction can reverse this trend. The carbon balance was negatively correlated with the trade-off between ecological construction and urbanization, and the conversion of natural resources by human activity hastened the spread of regional carbon imbalances.

Study on the Evolution of Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Carbon Emissions from Land Use in a River Basin

Land-use change significantly contributes to carbon emission. Analyzing this relationship fosters exploration of low-carbon, efficient land-use patterns at regional levels. Using ArcGIS 10.5 and the PLUS model, this study investigated land transfer trends across six counties and one district in the Malian River Basin between 2000 and 2020. It quantified carbon emissions from land use and performed spatial distribution analysis using land-use and socio-economic data. The study demonstrates the following: (1) Between 2010 and 2020, significant land-use changes occurred in the Malian River Basin with 72,919.49 km2 of land undergoing transformation. Notably, the farmland-to-forest and grassland conversion project in Qingyang City was a major factor contributing to the shift from arable land to forest and grassland. (2) Natural factors influencing land conversion in the Loess Plateau region primarily include precipitation and elevation. Conversely, social factors such as population density, road networks, and local government establishments in districts and counties are pivotal in driving land-use changes within the Malian River Basin. (3) Carbon emissions vary significantly among different land-use types, with building land, cropland, unutilized land, watershed, grassland, and forest land showing descending emissions. The rapid expansion of building land notably increases carbon emissions in the study region, while forest land, a significant carbon sink, absorbs approximately 88% of total carbon emissions. (4) Districts and counties in the study area exhibit varying levels of carbon emissions, with Ning County, Xifeng District, Huan County, Qingcheng County, Zhengning County, Heshui County, and Huachi County listed in descending order. Regions with higher carbon emissions typically host abundant energy resources and significant energy production and consumption activities. Variations in carbon emission levels are largely influenced by resource availability and development priorities. Variations in resource levels and developmental focus are pivotal in explaining differences in carbon emission levels. Thus, it is crucial to explore the dynamic interplay between land-use carbon emission efficiency and land evolution in the Malian River Basin. This research will support ecological management and sustainable economic development in the Yellow River Basin, while also contributing to the achievement of the “double carbon” goals.

Evidence of repeated zoonotic pathogen spillover events at ecological boundaries

Anthropogenic modifications to the landscape have altered several ecological processes worldwide, creating new ecological boundaries at the human/wildlife interface. Outbreaks of zoonotic pathogens often occur at these ecological boundaries, but the mechanisms behind new emergences remain drastically understudied. Here, we test for the influence of two types of ecosystem boundaries on spillover risk: (1) biotic transition zones such as species range edges and transitions between ecoregions and (2) land use transition zones where wild landscapes occur in close proximity to heavily impacted areas of high human population density. Using ebolavirus as a model system and an ensemble machine learning modeling framework, we investigated the role of likely reservoir (bats) and accidental host (primates) range edges and patterns of land use (defined using SEDAC categories) on past spillover events. Our results show that overlapping species range edges and heightened habitat diversity increase ebolavirus outbreaks risk. Moreover, we show that gradual transition zones, represent by high proportion of rangelands, acts as a buffer to reduces outbreak risks. With increasing landscape changes worldwide, we provide novel ecological and evolutionary insights into our understanding of zoonotic pathogen emergence and highlight the risk of aggressively developing ecological boundaries.

The Current Phyto-Scape and Foodplants of Holley Shelter, KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa) and Its Potential for Past Foragers

AbstractCurrent phyto-scapes (plant populations in their geo-spatial context) are not exact replicas of past foraging potential, yet they provide valuable data about the carrying capacity or potential of a foraging-scape. Knowledge about contemporary micro-ecologies and ethno-historical plant use can inform on behavioral aspects, should such plants be found in archaeological deposits. It is in this context that we explore existing information (data and literature) to establish the current vegetation types and micro-ecologies around Holley Shelter, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, that contains Middle and Later Stone Age occupations. We present the first plant species inventory consisting of > 1500 taxa growing approximately a day’s foraging distance from the site, compiled from records provided by the South African National Biodiversity Institute and other sources. From this list, we generated separate checklists for foodplants (n = 450) and plants that have other uses (n = 337), to gain insight into the site’s current phyto-fitness potential. The resulting database is intended as a modern proxy for future work on the site’s archaeo-botany and palaeo-climatic reconstructions. The data is also applicable to other sites on the Savanna/Grassland Biomes of southern Africa with records of the same species. Here we use the foodplant checklist and what is known about the edible plant parts, their seasonality and the distribution of some species to speculate about land-use patterns. These hypotheses can be tested for the past with future archaeo-botanical work. We demonstrate that, compared to archaeological sites in the Eastern and Western Cape for which comparable data exist, Holley Shelter is rich in foodplants, and especially so in plant foods that are known to buffer against famine during the periodical droughts of inland South Africa.

Evaluation of stormwater runoff pollutant distributions combined with land-use information in a regional karst aquifer in Texas, USA.

Fast urbanization can result in significant stormwater runoff pollution due to changes in land use. A 3-year study on the distribution and temporal variations of urban water pollutants in stormwater runoff was conducted, with a specific focus on the influence of land-use patterns in the recharge zone of a regional karst aquifer in Texas (Edwards Aquifer). The presence and concentration of various water pollutants including total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), nutrients (nitrite, nitrate, ammonia and phosphate), total carbon (TC) and total organic carbon (TOC), oil and grease (O&G), and eight heavy metals (Fe, Mg, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cr, Cd) were measured in stormwater samples collected from three bioswales. Results show that average TSS in site S1 (598.87mg/L) and S2 (628.69mg/L), COD in site S1 (103.97mg/L), phosphate in sites S1 (1.44mg/L) and S3 (0.65mg/L), and O&G (ranging from 50.63 to 84.32mg/L) in all three sites surpassed the national average (NSQD). While residential areas were identified as the main sources of nutrients, roads and parking lots were associated with heavy metals. Temporal variations indicated the effect of antecedent dry days on the concentrations of TSS and phosphate. Growing seasons as well as pet feces were associated with elevated nitrate concentrations in residential areas. Organic carbon was found overall higher during warmer months, while heavy metals during cooler months. The study also identified specific land-use practices that can be enhanced to mitigate stormwater pollution, such as the implementation of permeable pavements, rain gardens, and stricter waste disposal regulations. The results of this study offer valuable insights for enhancing stormwater management strategies to better mitigate stormwater pollution in urban regions.

Markov Chain Analysis of Land-use Changes in India and Maharashtra

Dynamics of Agriculture resembles the history of agriculture in India which examines the emphasizing significance to the nation's legacy, culture and civilization. India's agriculture changed after independence from a food-scarce nation to one that exports food this comes true primarily due to the result of scientific advancements. The present study is based on secondary data with the use of Markov Chain analysis to ascertain land-use changes in India and Maharashtra state. Changes in land use brought on by agriculture, urbanization and environmental factors significantly impact resource management and sustainability. We build a Markov Chain model with secondary land utilization data from government reports to measure the transition probabilities between various land use categories over time. The Markov chain model is easy to understand and communicate. It effectively captures transitions between land-use changes over time. The model works with limited data as compared to other complex models, making it accessible for studies. The results of the study emphasize dynamic interactions between various land-use patterns in India and Maharashtra. There we have concluded a stable land-use changing pattern. A trend towards intensive cropping has been observed during this study. This study reveals important trends in land conversion, most notably the growth of urban areas at the expense of forested and agricultural areas. The predictive abilities of model highlight the significance of well-informed policy-making for sustainable land management by offering insights into potential future land use scenarios.

Environmental and Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Using Machine Learning Models

Renewable energy sources, such as solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal energy, have emerged as key alternatives to fossil fuels in combating climate change and addressing energy security concerns in the USA and ad worldwide. Strategic use of this renewable resource is important not only for carbon emission reduction and improvement of environmental sustainability but also for maintaining future energy supplies. At the same time, such transition raises thorough assessments of environmental and socio-economic impacts. Machine learning (ML) models offer a powerful tool for predicting and analyzing such impacts, allowing for more efficient decision-making and long-term planning. These models are supposed to analyze patterns in energy production, land use, and emissions to make a more dynamic and predictive understanding of how renewable energy adoption influences CO2 levels. The principal aim of this research project was to develop and curate machine learning algorithms for predicting CO2 emissions based on renewable energy data, using the knowledge to better understand how solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy systems affect environmental outcomes. The predictive models developed in this research would serve as useful tools for the policymakers and major stakeholders in decision-making on investments in energy infrastructure and characterization of regulatory frameworks. These datasets for this research project were retrieved from several prominent institutions, including governmental agencies, international organizations such as the International Energy Agency-IEA and the World Bank, satellite data repositories, and USA environmental monitoring agencies. For this research project, 3 machine learning algorithms in the experiment were used, namely Logistic Regression, XG-Boost, and Random Forest. Amongst these three, the linear regression model gave the best performance, as it had the least MSE; indicating that its predictive capability was impressive. The comparative analysis of renewable energy projects in Germany, China, and California underlines that effective policy-making plays a very decisive role in the transition toward sustainable energy.

Distributions of Fecal Indicators at Aquaculture Areas in a Bay of Republic of Korea.

Aquaculture products, such as clams, scallops, and oysters, are major vectors of fecal-derived pathogens. Male-specific and somatic coliphages are strongly correlated with human noroviruses, the major enteric viruses worldwide. Geographic information system with local land-use patterns can also provide valuable information for tracking sources of fecal-derived pathogens. We examined distributions of four fecal indicator microorganisms, i.e., male-specific and somatic coliphage, total coliform, and Escherichia coli (E. coli) in three river and seawater sampling sites located on the coast of Gomso Bay in the Republic of Korea during the sampling period (from March 2015 to January 2016). Geospatial analyses of fecal indicators and correlation between environmental parameters and fecal indicators or among fecal indicators were also performed. Overall, river water samples showed highest concentrations of both types of coliphage in summer (July 2015). High concentrations of both total coliform and E. coli were detected in river water during the period from July to September 2015. High concentrations of all fecal indicators were found at site GL02, located in the innermost part of Gomso Bay, which has high-density agriculture and residential areas. Environmental factors related to precipitation-cumulative precipitation on and from 3 days before the sampling day (Prep-0 and Prep-3, respectively)-and salinity were strongly correlated with concentrations of all fecal indicators. The present results suggest that investigations of multiple fecal indicators with a systemic geospatial information are necessary for precisely tracking fecal contaminations of aquaculture products.

Assessment and multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service values in Southwest China’s mountainous and hilly region

Abstract The southwestern mountainous and hilly regions of China are vital ecological barriers upstream of the Yangtze River. Assessing and simulating changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) in this area is essential for ensuring sustainable ecological development. In this study, our purpose was to evaluate and simulate the spatial patterns as well as trends in the changes shown by the ESV in Yanting County, China, from 2020 to 2030 via a grid-scale using the equivalent factor method and the Markov–patch-generating land use simulation model. The results indicated that (1) from 2020 to 2030, forest, cultivated, and construction lands would be the main types of land use. (2) In 2030, the projected ESVs in Yanting County under the as-usual, low-carbon, and shared development scenarios were 5.31, 5.30, and 4.99 billion RMB, respectively. Compared to the 2020 ESV of Yanting County, the as-usual scenario and low-carbon scenario ESVs increased. The shared development scenario ESVs decreased. It reflects the contra-diction between urbanization, industrialization, agricultural production, and ecological protection in Yanting County. The spatial distribution of the ESVs of all three scenarios showed an agglomeration trend. (3) Given the background of national food security and carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the setting of a low-carbon development scenario combined with a shared development scenario appears to be more suitable for the future development of Yanting County, which is conducive to the rational planning of land-use patterns and the sci-entific growth of ESV in Yanting County. This study underscores the critical importance of integrating ESVs in sustainable land-use planning and management, and provides a reference for the rational use of land resources, land spatial planning, and policy-making for ecological protection in Yanting County.

Remote Sensing Mapping and Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land Use and Cover Change in the Helong Region of the Loess Plateau Region (1986–2020)

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is directly linked to the sustainability of ecosystems and the long-term well-being of human society. The Helong Region in the Loess Plateau has become one of the areas most severely affected by soil and water erosion in China due to its unique geographical location and ecological environment. The long-term construction of terraces and orchards is one of the important measures for this region to combat soil erosion. Despite the important role that terraces and orchards play in this region, current studies on their extraction and understanding remain limited. For this reason, this study designed a land use classification system, including terraces and orchards, to reveal the patterns of LUCC and the effectiveness of ecological restoration projects in the area. Based on this system, this study utilized the Random Forest classification algorithm to create an annual land use and cover (LUC) dataset for the Helong Region that covers eight periods from 1986 to 2020, with a spatial resolution of 30 m. The validation results showed that the maps achieved an average overall accuracy of 87.54% and an average Kappa coefficient of 76.94%. This demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed design and land coverage mapping method in the study area. This study found that, from 1986 to 2020, there was a continuous increase in forest and grassland areas, a significant reduction in cropland and bare land areas, and a notable rise in impervious surface areas. We emphasized that the continuous growth of terraces and orchards was an important LUCC trend in the region. This growth was primarily attributed to the conversion of grasslands, croplands, and forests. This transformation not only reduced soil erosion but also enhanced economic efficiency. The products and insights provided in this study help us better understand the complexities of ecological recovery and land management.

The Role of Customary Law in Forest Governance and Conservation in Jambi, Indonesia: A Case Study of Makekal Hulu Village within the Customary Territory of the Suku Anak Dalam

Indonesia's forests face increasing pressures from deforestation and degradation. While national laws exist to protect these vital ecosystems, their implementation often faces challenges, particularly in areas inhabited by indigenous communities with distinct customary laws and practices. This study examines the role of customary law (adat law) in forest governance and conservation in Jambi Province, Indonesia, focusing on Makekal Hulu village within the customary territory of the Suku Anak Dalam. This qualitative study employed a case study approach. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with adat leaders, community members, government officials, and NGO representatives. Focus group discussions were conducted to gather diverse perspectives on forest management practices. Relevant documents, such as adat regulations, government policies, and NGO reports, were also analyzed. Additionally, data was utilized to enhance understanding of resource use dynamics and land-use change patterns. The findings reveal that adat law plays a significant role in regulating access to and use of forest resources in Makekal Hulu. Adat institutions, led by the village elder and guided by customary beliefs, enforce rules related to logging, hunting, and land clearing. These rules often complement national laws, providing a localized and context-specific approach to forest management. However, challenges exist in harmonizing adat law with national legislation, particularly concerning land tenure conflicts and external pressures from logging and plantation interests. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of recognizing and incorporating adat law into forest governance frameworks in Indonesia. By integrating traditional knowledge and practices with national policies, a more effective and sustainable approach to forest conservation can be achieved. This requires collaboration between government agencies, adat communities, and civil society organizations to ensure that adat law is respected and supported within the broader legal framework.

Effects of land use types on the soil physicochemical characteristics of Inyi community, Enugu State, Nigeria: Application of multivariate statistical, and eco-toxicological and human risk model approaches

The constant and increased use of arable lands for cultivation has led to its degradation; hence the impacts of different land-use patterns on the soil physical and chemical properties were investigated. Soil samples (n = 36) were collected from the oil palm plantation (OPP), cashew plantation (CP) and untampered forest (UF), in Inyi community, Enugu State, Nigeria. They were air-dried, sieved, and analyzed for their physicochemical properties. The results revealed that the average soil pH ranged from 5.9 to 8.2. Moisture and carbon contents ranged from 6.3 to 35.4, and 3.5 to 6.7 % respectively. Low CEC values were recorded for all the soil samples. The total mean soil textural fractions decreased as follows: sand > clay > silt. Also, the total mean concentrations of N, P, K, and Mg in the study area decreased in the order: OPP>UF>CP, OPP>UF>CP, UF>OPP>CP, and OPP>UF>CP respectively while the S, NO3-, NO2-, and HCO3- followed the order; OPP>UF>CP, UF>OPP>CP, OPP>CP>UF, and CP>OPP>UF respectively. The soil ecological risk index was < 40 in all sample locations, indicating slight contamination of the study area. Therefore, regular monitoring and soil nutrient management practices should be maintained and encouraged.

How do urban block built environments affect older adults' walking activities and health effects: a case study in Nanjing, China.

Research on the relationship between microscale built environments and physical activity among older adults in densely populated old urban areas with high aging rates is scarce. Particularly, the relationship between urban block land-use pattern and older adults' walking activities have not yet been completely understood. This study examined the daily walking habits and socioeconomic attributes of older adults in 17 blocks with different built environment characteristics in Nanjing City, China. A multi-layer linear model was used to quantitatively analyse the mechanism underlying the effects of various factors on the health of older adults. The result shows significant positive correlation between neighborhood walkability and the enhancement of walking frequency and activity. For every 10% increase in pedestrian road connectivity and land use, the walking activity volume increased by 22.4 and 12%, and the BMI increased by 9.1 and 7.3% toward the standard range, respectively. For every 10% increase in distance between residence and plaza and park, the walking activity volume decreased by 5.4 and 3.2%, and BMI decreased by 9.9 and 6.3%, respectively. For every 10.4% increase in land mixed-use rate and per capita green area, BMI increased by 19.4%. Furthermore, higher household income and number of family members have significant correlation with walking activities and health effects. Moreover, the block-scale built environment and walking activities jointly affected health, with a cross-functional relationship between multiple factors.

Estimating the dynamics and driving factors of gross primary productivity over the Chinese Loess Plateau by the modified vegetation photosynthesis model

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a key parameter in research on the global carbon cycle and changes. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of GPP on the Loess Plateau (LP) helps identify the health status of ecosystems, thereby enabling the implementation of effective conservation and restoration measures. In this study, we used a modified vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) to simulate a long-term series of GPP in the LP from 2001 to 2022, and the impacts of different land-use patterns and meteorological factors on GPP were investigated using a transition matrix, linear regression, and partial correlation analyses. The findings suggested that the modified simulation yielded a more reliable performance (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89, root mean square error (RMSE) = 143.47 gC·m−2·yr−1) and was suitable for further research endeavors. (1) The GPP on the LP significantly increased by 232.65 TgC from 2001 to 2022. The southeastern region contributed more than the northwestern region, and the GPP exhibited higher multi-year averages and growth rates below 1000 m elevation. (2) Forests in the southeastern region of the LP, characterized by a heightened growth rate, will influence future spatial variations in GPP increases across the LP. Despite the decline in grassland and cultivated land areas, substantial land coverage has significantly contributed to the overall GPP growth. Urbanization encroaching on cultivated land has emerged as a key contributor to the decline in GPP in low-altitude regions. (3) Air temperature was the main physical driving force for GPP change in the LP. Additionally, the GPP in forested regions exhibited a negative correlation with rainfall, whereas the GPP in areas undergoing the return of cropland to forest–grassland and cropland reclamation correlated negatively with solar radiation. (4) The attribution analysis indicated that the surge in vegetation GPP on the LP was collectively driven by human activities and meteorological changes, with human activities dominating these changes by 61.41 %. This study deepens the understanding of terrestrial ecology in semi-humid regions and provides scientific insights for implementing ecological governance strategies in the LP.

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover changes, LST and NDVI in Thatta district, Sindh, Pakistan

The purpose of this work is to determine land-use and land-cover (LULC) patterns, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes in Thatta district using Landsat data from 1991 to 2021 and evaluate the relationship between LST and NDVI. The research process employed the selection of the study area, data acquisition, preprocessing, and classification of remotely sensed images for the estimation of the land use land cover change (LULC), vegetation index (NDVI), and evaluation of LST using thermal bands in the Landsat dataset. The study revealed the area under built-up structures has increased from 1991 to 2021. Although the vegetation cover showed an increase, the bare soil showed a decreasing pattern, indicating a constant change in the LULC patterns in the region. The confusion matrix method for accuracy valuation of LULC data of 2021 revealed an overall accuracy of 88.24%, with a Kappa coefficient of 84.22%, while the Artificial Neural Network Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) model had a Kappa validation of 0.95 for 2021. The highest maximum temperature is observed for 2021, indicating a positive relationship between LST and built-up structures, while regression analysis found a negative correlation between LST and NDVI. This study provides a valuable monitoring framework to help resource managers develop strategies to manage land resources.

Effectiveness of wetlands as reservoirs for integrated water resource management in the Ruzizi plain based on water evaluation and planning (WEAP) approach for a climate-resilient future in eastern D.R. Congo

It is widely predicted that climate change’s adverse effects will intensify in the future, and along with inadequate agricultural practices, settlement development, and other anthropic activities, could contribute to rapid wetland degradation and thus exert significant negative effects on local communities. This study sought to develop an approach based on the Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in the Ruzizi Plain, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where adverse effects of the climate change are increasingly recurrent. Initially, we analyzed the trends of climate data for the last three decades (1990–2022). Subsequently, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) approach was employed on two contrasting watersheds to estimate current and future water demands in the region and how local wetlands could serve as reservoirs to meeting water demands. Results indicate that the Ruzizi Plain is facing escalating water challenges owing to climate change, rapid population growth, and evolving land-use patterns. These factors are expected to affect water quality and quantity, and thus, increase pressure on wetland ecosystems. The analysis of past data shows recurrence of dry years (SPI ≤ − 1.5), reduced daily low-intensity rainfall (Pmm < 10 mm), and a significant increase in extreme rainfall events (Pmm ≥ 25 mm). The WEAP outcomes revealed significant variations in future water availability, demand, and potential stressors across watersheds. Cropland and livestock are the main water consumers in rural wetlands, while households, cropland (at a lesser extent), and other urban uses exert significant water demands on wetlands located in urban environments. Of three test scenarios, the one presenting wetlands as water reservoirs seemed promising than those considered optimal (based on policies regulating water use) and rational (stationary inputs but with a decrease in daily allocation). These findings highlight the impact of climate change in the Ruzizi plain, emphasizing the urgency of implementing adaptive measures. This study advocates for the necessity of the IWRM approach to enhance water resilience, fostering sustainable development and wetland preservation under changing climate.