LULUCF Research Articles

By 2050 the Mitigation Effects of EU Forests Could Nearly Double through Climate Smart Forestry

In July 2016, the European Commission (EC) published a legislative proposal for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The Climate and Energy Framework aims at a total emission reduction of 40% by 2030 for all sectors together as part of the Paris Agreement. The LULUCF proposal regulates a “no debit” target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils), and regulates the accounting of any additional mitigation potential that might be expected of it. We find that the forest share of the LULUCF sector can achieve much more than what is in the regulation now. We elaborate a strategy for unlocking European Union (EU) forests and forest sector potential based on the concept of “climate smart forestry” (CSF). We find that to-date, European policy has not firmly integrated forest potential into the EU climate policy framework. Nor have climate objectives been firmly integrated into those of the forest and forest sector at either the EU or national level. Yet a wide range of measures can be applied to provide positive incentives for more firmly integrating these climate objectives into the forest and forest sector framework. With the right set of incentives in place at EU and Member States levels, we find the current literature supports the view that the EU has the potential to achieve an additional combined mitigation impact through CSF of 441 Mt CO2/year by 2050. In addition, CSF, through reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting and building forest resilience, and sustainably increasing forest productivity and incomes, tackles multiple policy goals.

A Land Use and Resource Allocation (LURA) modeling system for projecting localized forest CO2 effects of alternative macroeconomic futures

The United States has recently set ambitious national goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions over the coming decades. A portion of these reductions are based on expected sequestration and storage contributions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Significant uncertainty exists in future forest markets and thus the potential LULUCF contribution to US GHG reduction goals. This study seeks to inform the discussion by modeling US forest GHG accounts per different simulated demand scenarios across a grid of over 130,000 USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) forestland plots over the conterminous United States. This spatially disaggregated future supply is based on empirical yield functions for log volume, biomass and carbon. Demand data is based on a spatial database of over 2300 forest product manufacturing facilities representing 11 intermediate and 13 final solid and pulpwood products. Transportation costs are derived from fuel prices and the locations of FIA plot from which a log is harvested and mill or port destination. Trade between mills in intermediate products such as sawmill residues or planer shavings is also captured within the model formulation. The resulting partial spatial equilibrium model of the US forest sector is solved annually for the period 2015–2035 with demand shifted by energy prices and macroeconomic indicators from the US EIA's Annual Energy Outlook for a Reference, Low Economic Growth, and High Economic Growth case. For each macroeconomic scenario simulated, figures showing historic and scenario-specific live tree carnon emissions and sequestration are generated. Maps of the spatial allocation of both forest harvesting and related carbon fluxes are presented at the National level and detail is given for both regions and ownerships.

Sectoral assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan.

In this study, an attempt has been made to develop inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Pakistan at the national and sectoral level. The emission profile includes carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). In 2012, GHG emissions from different sectors of economy are estimated at 367Tg CO2eq. Out of this, CO2 emissions were 179Tg; CH4 emissions were 107Tg CO2eq; and N2O emissions were 81Tg CO2eq. Energy and agriculture sectors contribute approximately 89% of national GHG emissions. Industrial processes, waste, and land use change and forestry (LUCF) sectors contribute the remaining 11% GHG emissions. A comparison with the 1994 GHG emission inventory of Pakistan shows that GHG emissions in Pakistan from 1994 to 2012 have increased at an annual growth rate of 4.1% and yet anticipated to increase further for meeting the national developmental goals; however, the per capita emissions in Pakistan will remain low when compared with the global average.

Strategic group formation for carbon governance in Indonesia after the Indian Ocean tsunami 2004

This article indentifies the carbon governance landscape after a complex and large-scale disaster by identifying the formation of new strategic groups and the utilization of resources policies. The article highlights the post-disaster context of land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In particular it examines the power issue surrounding carbon management in Aceh Province, Indonesia, after the Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) 2004. The author proposes a new institutional framework, namely the Strategic Framework for Sustainability Analysis (SFSA). The SFSA uses a series of strategic group analyses, combined with strategic resources identification and strategic policy to analyze LULUCF problems. The strategic groups in LULUCF are those that hold the decision-making power to discourage/encourage sustainability of local natural resources. Each group is assumed to reposition itself strategically in order to gain more control over resources. The IOT 2004 has led Aceh to exercise its own sustainability policies, which are set through many initiatives such as a moratorium on logging, a sustainable palm oil policy, livelihood-based carbon conservation projects, and green development policies, including disaster risk reduction.

Calculation of GHGs Emission from LULUCF-Cropland Sector in South Korea

The land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) is one of the greenhouse gas inventory sectors that cover emission and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from land use such as agricultural activities and land use change. Particularly, LULUCF-Cropland sector consists of carbon stock changes in soil, N₂O emissions from disturbance associated with land use conversion to cropland, and CO₂ emission from agricultural lime application. In this paper, we conducted the study to calculate the greenhouse gases emission of LULUCFCropland sector in South Korea from 1990 to 2014. The emission by carbon stock changes, conversion to cropland and lime application in 2014 was 4424, 32, and 125 Gg CO₂-eq, respectively. Total emission from the LULUCF- Cropland sector in 2014 was 4,582 Gg CO₂-eq, increased by 508% since 1990 and decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous year. Total emission from this sector showed that the largest sink was the soil carbon and its increase trend in total emission in recent years was largely due to loss of cropland area.

Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.

Compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period

This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies.Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO2e yr–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO2e yr–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO2e yr–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO2e yr–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO2e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either.Policy relevanceGiven the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period.

Contribution of different sectors to developed countries’ fulfillment of GHG emission reduction targets under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

Greenhouse gas (GHG) data submitted in April 2014 on land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, and waste for 37 developed countries was analyzed to estimate the relative contributions of different sectors to GHG emission reductions. This GHG data from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol included 35 parties to Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol, the United States and Canada. Results show that the contribution of each sector was, in order: energy (36.9%), industrial processes (12.4%), agriculture (9.9%), LULUCF (7.7%), waste (3.4%), and solvents and other product use (0.1%). The average proportion of base year emissions reduced in each sector by countries in Annex B was, in order: energy (7.4%), agriculture (2.7%), LULUCF (1.9%), industrial processes (1.2%), waste (0.5%), and solvents and other product use (0.1%). Overall, the energy sector contributed the highest GHG emission reductions, while the agriculture and LULUCF sectors also made contributions. Most countries achieved limited absolute GHG reductions from their chosen LULUCF activities, but the relative contribution of GHG emission reductions from LULUCF was significant but small. This suggests that, unless there are substantial changes to accounting rules, future emission reductions will mainly result from mitigation actions targeting fossil fuel consumption, while the agriculture and LULUCF sectors will continue to play auxiliary roles.

Climate change mitigation in China

Climate change mitigation issues including China’s carbon emission status, the mitigation potential and cost in different sectors, the target of 40%–45% reduction of emission intensity of GDP in 2020 compared with the 2005 level, and conditions and uncertainties of the carbon emission peak are analyzed and assessed in the Third China National Climate Change Assessment Report and summarized in this paper. Economic structure adjustment has played and is expected to continue to play important role for carbon mitigation. Development of nuclear and renewable power would contribute to around 2 billion tons and 3.7 billion tons carbon reductions by 2020 and 2030 respectively. Key energy saving and low carbon technologies in the end-use sectors such as industry, transportation and building are listed and assessed. The mitigation potential and cost curve for steel is provided as an example to show that a large amount of carbon emissions could be reduced with minus mitigation cost partly resulting to energy saved. For industry process, carbon mitigation potentials would be around 420 million tons and 770 million tons by 2020 and 2030 respectively. Carbon mitigation potentials from LULUCF (Land use, land use change and forestry) are still uncertain and needed further research. For the assessment of 45% carbon intensity reduction target in 2020, it is concluded that economic structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement, development of non-fossil energy, building and transportation would contribute to 33.4%, 28.5%, 20.4% and 17.3% of the total reductions. Assuming GDP growth rate as 6%–7% during 2010–2030, energy intensity reduction rate as 15% during 2015–2020, 14% during 2020–2025, and 13% during 2025–2030, the total primary energy consumption would be around 6 billion tons. To control coal use to less than 50% of the total primary energy consumption, while increasing the share of nature gas to over 10%, and the share of new and renewable energy to 20% or higher, carbon emissions would peak around 2030 at 11 to 12 billion tons. Finally, Climate change mitigation strategies to facilitate the achievement of China’s carbon emission peak target are proposed. It’s also suggested that measures are needed to accelerate the economy restructuring and development modes shift, to control the growth rate of total energy demand, to maintain a sustainable energy system with the new and renewable energy as its main components, and to achieve the carbon emission peak target by sector and region.

Proposals for low-carbon agriculture production strategies between 2020 and 2030 in Hungary

When viewed from the perspective of climate policy, agriculture as a separate sector is one of the most difficult development areas to assess. One of the reasons for this is the problem of the localization of greenhouse gas emitters, caused by the fact that production takes place in small or dispersed production units. The special circumstance that unit production takes place in complex interactive systems (food, feed, energy sources, main products, by-products, etc.) is yet another special factor, which in addition makes it significantly more difficult to measure and identify the GHGs they emit than if they were a uniform production plant. Additionally, there are few sectors outside agriculture where decision-makers encounter such strong opposition and lobby interests when developing limiting regulations. This stems from the fact that following World War II, European decision-makers and the Common Agricultural Policy elevated agriculture to a prominent role whose importance was indisputable. As a result, both climate policy and other measures that would result in any reduction of the priority of the sector are very difficult to implement, since the players involved always reason that limitations would restrict their competiveness and the security of their production. In addition, the uncertain nature of regulatory elements also poses a grave problem. As an example, the name of the sector itself – the LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) sector – shows that the strategy for reducing the greenhouse gasses emitted by the whole sector would be significantly different if these units were treated separately (agricultural land use, forest, not-cultivated areas). Taking the above into account, the present study aims to identify development directions that in turn allow those low-carbon development directions to be pinpointed within animal husbandry and plant production that have the greatest feasibility and can contribute to decreasing the GHG environmental load exerted by agriculture.

The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.

The EU greenhouse gas inventory for the LULUCF sector: I. Overview and comparative analysis of methods used by EU member states

ABSTRACTReporting national greenhouses gas inventories for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been driving significant development of national data. Lands classification and definitions for C pools are very different across the 28 EU member states, as are the methods used for data collection and processing. Even when definitions or sampling methods were in substance the same, specifications were-different. However, member states' inventories are assumed to be fully comparable and consistent with reporting principles. For forest, data collection rely on forest inventory repeated measurements (both statistical sampling and stand-wise), while for most important contributor, the biomass, there is no preference for “gain-loss” or “stock-change” method. For cropland and grasslands, operational records information is equally important to statistical sampling and aerial photography sources for area estimation, while default emission factors are used less and less as they are being replaced by country-specific data. The obvious trend is the move toward statistical sampling covering all land categories within national territory and slight increasing use of models. Such heterogeneity requires a better harmonization of data collection and processing as to increase the credibility of the EU GHG inventory.

Sustainable Extensification as an Alternative Model For Reducing GHG Emissions From Agriculture. The Case of an Extensively Managed Organic Farm in Denmark

GHG emissions of an extensively managed Danish organic farm were estimated upstream and on-farm. The results were compared to Danish national levels based on land area and output. Overall, the farm emitted 2.12 t CO2eq ha−1 yr−1. Excluding land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) related emissions, the combined GHG emissions from energy- and agriculture-based activities at the case farm were 47% lower (per unit area) and 12% higher (per unit output), than GHG emissions from Danish agriculture. With current livestock density (0.64 LU ha−1) and crop production area, the case study farm would supply at average 1,466 kcal per inhabitant per day in Denmark, if the farm was scaled up to Danish national level. With a reduction of livestock density to 0.36 LU ha−1 and proportional cropland area expansion for food production (ceteris paribus), the case study farm could supply around 4,940 kcal person−1 day−1, matching Danish national levels (including Danish net food export surplus of 41.5%). Simultaneously, the case study farm would have a better GHG balance per unit area and unit output in food, compared to the rest of Denmark. Hence, the case study farm system could serve as an alternative model for Danish agriculture under a sustainable extensification scenario with lower GHG emissions, while maintaining sufficient output for human consumption.

Shutting Down the Fog Machine

The RRPE article, “Left Clouds Over Climate Policy Change” (Hahnel 2012a: 83-89), includes stringent and radical proposals to solve two additionality problems in project-level carbon offsets. Its failure suggests carbon offsets are irreparably broken. National penalties for non-additionality, intended to shift regulatory incentives, fail to solve the principal/agent problems addressed. Modifying standards for emission cap measurements in order to solve additionality problems in land use change and forestry (LUCF) overlooks technical obstacles and political consequences.

Les émissions de CO2 du Brésil : impact de l'usage des terres, de leur changement d'affectation et de la foresterie

L’Equation de Kaya exprime les emissions de CO2 d’un pays en fonction de facteurs economique, demographique et energetique. Plusieurs travaux decomposent par periode, a partir de cette equation, les effets sur les emissions bresiliennes des variables de population, de PIB par tete, d’intensite energetique (contenu en energie du PIB) et d’intensite carbonique (contenu en carbone de l’energie). Ils ne tiennent pas compte des emanations de CO2 engendrees par le secteur UTCATF (usage des terres, changement d’affectation des terres et foresterie). Pour mieux eclairer les enjeux des politiques climatiques, nous proposons une analyse de decomposition des facteurs d’evolution des emissions qui inclut les statistiques du secteur UTCATF. Son influence dans la variation des emissions totales s’avere predominante, aussi bien comme stimulant sur la periode de deforestation massive de 1994-2000, que comme moderateur de 2000 a 2005, annee ou s’ebauche le programme de deforestation evitee.Classification JEL : CO2, O54, Q23, Q54.

Method for estimation of stem carbon fixation of Japanese black pine by combining stem analysis and soft X-ray densitometry

We derived a formula for estimating the relationship between stem carbon weight and stem volume, which was calculated from DBH and tree height using a combination of stem analysis and soft X-ray densitometry. The results indicate carbon weight in a 33-year-old coastal Japanese black pine (Pinus thunbergii) forest is approximately 68,186 kg ha−1 in Yamagata Prefecture and 38,253 kg ha−1in a 42-year-old black pine forest in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan. Also, age-related changes in the stem density following oven-drying of samples of black pine trees are small: the oven-dried density (hereafter “density”) of black pine trees in the two locations mentioned above were 425.6 (kg m−3) and 523.2 (kg m−3) respectively, which is comparable to the density (converted from basic density) of black pine of Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) (533 kg m−3). When compared with the carbon weight by the oven-dried density of LULUCF, the carbon weights calculated from each density were 27 % lower in Yamagata and 6 % lower in Hokkaido. This difference directly affects carbon weight for large-scale estimation and thus can create an error at a regional scale. This methodology can contribute to the management of forests acting as carbon sinks.

Greenhouse gas emissions in the state of Morelos, Mexico: A first approximation for establishing mitigation strategies

In this study, the authors report the first greenhouse gas emission inventory of Morelos, a state in central Mexico, in which the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have been identified using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were estimated as CO2 equivalents (CO2 eq) for the years 2005, 2007, and 2009, with 2005 being treated as the base year. The percentage contributions from each category to the CO2 eq emissions in the base year were as follows: 38% from energy, 30% from industrial processes, 23% from waste, 5% from agriculture, and 4% from land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF). As observed in other state inventories in Mexico, road transportation is the main source of CO2 emissions, wastewater handling and solid waste disposal are the main sources of CH4 emissions, and agricultural soils are the source of the most significant N2O emissions. The information reported in this inventory identifies the main emission sources. Based on these results, the government can propose public policies specifically designed for the state of Morelos to establish GHG mitigation strategies in the near future. Implications: In this paper, the emissions of greenhouse gases that are generated in the state of Morelos in central Mexico were calculated. The authors calculated carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide gases emitted from the categories energy, waste, industrial processes, agriculture, and LULUCF. These emissions correspond to 1.24% of the total issued nationwide. These first results will be the basis for mitigation and adaptation strategies against climate change, as well as for establishing public policies in the study area.

Equitable access to sustainable development: operationalizing key criteria

Equitable access to sustainable development (EASD) is crucial for the future of the climate regime as it applies to adaptation, mitigation, and the means of implementation. An approach to allocating effort and deriving carbon budgets is presented here based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of responsibility, capability, and sustainable development. A transparent model to operationalize EASD is applied by applying quantitative proxies for these criteria, and results for selected countries and groups are presented. A robust result is that the mitigation burden calculated by the model is significantly greater for developed than developing countries. For individual countries the results vary depending on the parameters chosen. A middle value of the mitigation burden for South Africa of 15 GtCO2e over the first half of the 21st century is reported, with the greatest effort required when a starting year of 1970 is chosen and historical land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions are excluded when accounting for responsibility. In a regime applicable to all, it is clear that although all countries must do more, some must do more than others. Policy relevance Equitable access to sustainable development is crucial to the climate negotiations. Quantified allocations are presented for South Africa and other countries, based on the UNFCCC principles of responsibility, capability, and sustainable development. It is shown that the mitigation burden given these principles must be significantly greater for developed than developing countries. The results are relevant to, inter alia, the upcoming 2013–2015 review and the negotiations under the Durban Platform.

BiotecVisions 2013, March

BiotecVisions 2013, March

The incentive gap: LULUCF and the Kyoto mechanism before and after Durban

AbstractTo‐date, forest resource‐based carbon accounting in land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kyoto Protocol (KP), European Union (EU) and national level emission reduction schemes considers only a fraction of its potential and fails to adequately mobilize the LULUCF sector for the successful stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Recent modifications at the 2011 COP17 meetings in Durban have partially addressed this basic problem, but leave room for improvement. The presence of an Incentive Gap (IG) continues to justify reform of the LULUCF carbon accounting framework. Frequently neglected in the climate change mitigation and adaptation literature, carbon accounting practices ultimately define the nuts and bolts of what counts and which resources (forest, forest‐based or other) are favored and utilized. For Annex I countries in the Kyoto Mechanism, the Incentive Gap under forest management (FM) is significantly large: some 75% or more of potential forestry‐based carbon sequestration is not effectively incentivized or mobilized for climate change mitigation and adaptation (Ellison et al. 2011a). In this paper, we expand our analysis of the Incentive Gap to incorporate the changes agreed in Durban and encompass both a wider set of countries and a larger set of omitted carbon pools. For Annex I countries, based on the first 2 years of experience in the first Commitment Period (CP1) we estimate the IG in FM at approximately 88%. Though significantly reduced in CP2, the IG remains a problem. Thus our measure of missed opportunities under the Kyoto and UNFCCC framework – despite the changes in Durban – remains important. With the exception perhaps of increased energy efficiency, few sinks or sources of reduced emissions can be mobilized as effectively and efficiently as forests. Thus, we wonder at the sheer magnitude of this underutilized resource.