LULUCF Research Articles

The AFOLU sector’s role in national decarbonization: a comparative analysis of low-GHG development pathways in Brazil, India and Indonesia

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the role that AFOLU (agriculture, forest and other land use) plays in national deep decarbonization scenarios in Brazil, India and Indonesia between 2020 and 2050. It finds that the LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) subsector is important for medium-term mitigation (2020–2030) while continuing to contribute to mitigation over the long-term (2030–2050) in the three countries. Mitigation actions in LULUCF include drastically reducing deforestation (Brazil, Indonesia) and peat degradation (Indonesia), re-/afforestation (all), increased sequestration in standing forests (Brazil, Indonesia) and increasing soil carbon in agricultural lands (India). AFOLU further contributes to mitigation in Brazil and Indonesia by producing biomass feedstock for bioenergy. No country significantly reduces N2O and CH4 emissions from either agriculture or via demand-side actions on diets, due to trade-offs with food security, rural livelihoods and economic growth (although all countries reduce the GHG intensity of agricultural products). Furthermore, the paper analyses national policies to manoeuvre co-benefits and trade-offs between mitigation and other sustainable development goals (SDGs), including no poverty (1); zero hunger (2); decent work and economic growth (8); climate action, including both adaptation and mitigation (13); and life on land (15). Common policy areas were identified, including incentives to land managers for conservation or more environmental agricultural practices; changing regulations of land use to protect ecosystems and/or encourage shifts in agricultural practices; and strengthening enforcement capacity of land protection.

Taking stock of carbon dioxide removal policy in emerging economies: developments in Brazil, China, and India

ABSTRACT Deliberately removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is an important element of bringing mitigation pathways in line with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. To reach global net-zero CO2 emissions and limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, global mitigation pathways assessed by IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report require some world regions to achieve net-negative CO2 emissions with large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) deployment. This raises important questions about the availability and feasibility of CDR deployment in different societal and political contexts. This paper therefore combines an analysis of CDR deployment in a sample of scenarios from the IPCC AR6 database with a bottom-up analysis of the state of CDR governance and policy in countries considered key in scaling up CDR capacity and not yet covered by existing research. In particular, the paper focuses on Brazil, China, and India as important emerging economies and large emitters. We highlight the expected use of CDR methods in those regions in scenarios and systematically assess and compare the level of CDR regulation and innovation across these countries. This comparative perspective has the potential to broaden the understanding of existing and emerging CDR policies and politics. The synthesis of the case studies provides three key contributions to existing literature: First, we explore the state of CDR governance and policymaking in key emerging economies. As in OECD countries, there is a notable lack of CDR regulation and innovation to enable the scale of CDR required in the short- and medium term. Second, we identify that repurposing policies is a key type of emerging CDR policymaking in these countries targeting CDR methods in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. We find that the repurposing efforts strengthen the level of regulation and innovation for this group of methods. Third, we explore three building blocks (regional differentiation, delay of upscaling, sustainability thresholds) of plausible CDR deployment narratives that could help bridge integrated assessment models and comparative case studies in future research.

Review of Climate Strategies in Northern Europe: Exposure to Potential Risks and Limitations

Several northern European countries have announced ambitious plans to become carbon neutral already before the year 2050. Recent research has, however, highlighted how potential bottlenecks in raw material and resource availability could significantly delay or hinder wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion and continued biomass usage in parts of Europe. To address this issue, this paper assesses how exposed the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of Finland, Estonia, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are to resource limitations and techno-economic risks by reviewing and analysing 2030 NECP targets compared to statistical energy use data in these countries. The results indicate that the NECPs of Denmark and Germany are particularly exposed to risks related to global raw material availability, as Denmark plans to rapidly grow the share of wind and solar PV in electricity generation to 81% and 13% by 2030, respectively, followed by Germany, which outlines a 39% and 16% share of wind and solar PV in its national climate strategy. The NECPs of Finland and Germany are also shown to be vulnerable to limitations in biomass availability, as there is a significant disparity between the projected biomass usage and legally binding European Union (EU) targets for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector emissions in 2030 in these countries.

Impact of Land-Use Changes on Climate Change Mitigation Goals: The Case of Lithuania

The land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector is receiving increasing attention in climate change mitigation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offsetting. The sector itself and measures applied to mobilize this sector in order to tackle climate change are dominant in nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement as well as in national strategies, as in the case of Lithuania. Lithuania has set the goal of becoming a carbon-neutral country in 2050, reducing GHGs by 80% compared to 1990 and offsetting the remaining 20% through the LULUCF sector. Therefore, this paper aims at analyzing historical land-use changes in 1990–2021, as reported for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat, and LULUCF’s potential to achieve climate change mitigation goals, taking into account different land-use change scenarios (business as usual, forest development, forest development + additional measures and forest land 40% + additional measures) for 2030 and 2050 in Lithuania. The scenarios are based on historical and potential future policy-based land-use changes. Projections of GHG emissions/removals for different scenarios are prepared according to the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that land-use changes over the period 1990–2021 remained rather stable, with some increases in forest area and grassland at the expense of cropland. The whole LULUCF sector acted as a carbon sink in most cases, forests being a key category for removal. However, reaching climate neutrality in 2050 might be challenging, as the goal to offset 20% of remaining GHG emission compared to 1990 through LULUCF would not be met in any of the scenarios analyzed, even the scenario of maximal forest-area development and additional measures. Considering the high historical GHG-removal fluctuations and the uncertainties of the sector itself, caution should be taken when relying on LULUCF’s potential to reach the set goals.

Greenhouse gas emissions and their trends over the last 3 decades across Africa

Abstract. A key goal of the Paris Agreement (PA) is to reach net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 globally, which requires mitigation efforts from all countries. Africa's rapidly growing population and gross domestic product (GDP) make this continent important for GHG emission trends. In this paper, we study the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in Africa over 3 decades (1990–2018). We compare bottom-up (BU) approaches, including United Nations Convention Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) national inventories, FAO, PRIMAP-hist, process-based ecosystem models for CO2 fluxes in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector and global atmospheric inversions. For inversions, we applied different methods to separate anthropogenic CH4 emissions. The BU inventories show that, over the decade 2010–2018, fewer than 10 countries represented more than 75 % of African fossil CO2 emissions. With a mean of 1373 Mt CO2 yr−1, total African fossil CO2 emissions over 2010–2018 represent only 4 % of global fossil emissions. However, these emissions grew by +34 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by +31 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018, which represents more than a doubling in 30 years. This growth rate is more than 2 times faster than the global growth rate of fossil CO2 emissions. The anthropogenic emissions of CH4 grew by 5 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by 14.8 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018. The N2O emissions grew by 19.5 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by 20.8 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018. When using the mean of the estimates from UNFCCC reports (including the land use sector) with corrections from outliers, Africa was a mean source of greenhouse gases of 262221863239 Mt CO2 eq. yr−1 from all BU estimates (the subscript and superscript indicate min–max range uncertainties) and of +263717615873 Mt CO2 eq. yr−1 from top-down (TD) methods during their overlap period from 2001 to 2017. Although the mean values are consistent, the range of TD estimates is larger than the one of the BU estimates, indicating that sparse atmospheric observations and transport model errors do not allow us to use inversions to reduce the uncertainty in BU estimates. The main source of uncertainty comes from CO2 fluxes in the LULUCF sector, for which the spread across inversions is larger than 50 %, especially in central Africa. Moreover, estimates from national UNFCCC communications differ widely depending on whether the large sinks in a few countries are corrected to more plausible values using more recent national sources following the methodology of Grassi et al. (2022). The medians of CH4 emissions from inversions based on satellite retrievals and surface station networks are consistent with each other within 2 % at the continental scale. The inversion ensemble also provides consistent estimates of anthropogenic CH4 emissions with BU inventories such as PRIMAP-hist. For N2O, inversions systematically show higher emissions than inventories, on average about 4.5 times more than PRIMAP-hist, either because natural N2O sources cannot be separated accurately from anthropogenic ones in inversions or because BU estimates ignore indirect emissions and underestimate emission factors. Future improvements can be expected thanks to a denser network of monitoring atmospheric concentrations. This study helps to introduce methods to enhance the scope of use of various published datasets and allows us to compute budgets thanks to recombinations of those data products. Our results allow us to understand uncertainty and trends in emissions and removals in a region of the world where few observations exist and where most inventories are based on default IPCC guideline values. The results can therefore serve as a support tool for the Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement. The referenced datasets related to the figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7347077 (Mostefaoui et al., 2022).

Total Soil CO2 Efflux from Drained Terric Histosols.

Histosols cover about 8-10% of Lithuania's territory and most of this area is covered with nutrient-rich organic soils (Terric Histosols). Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from drained Histosols contribute more than 25% of emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. In this study, as the first step of examining the carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in these soils, total soil CO2 efflux and several environmental parameters (temperature of air and topsoil, soil chemical composition, soil moisture, and water table level) were measured in drained Terric Histosols under three native forest stands and perennial grasslands in the growing seasons of 2020 and 2021. The drained nutrient-rich organic soils differed in terms of concentrations of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen, as well as soil organic carbon and total nitrogen ratio. The highest rate of total soil CO2 efflux was found in the summer months. Overall, the rate was statistically significant and strongly correlated only with soil and air temperature. A trend emerged that total soil CO2 efflux was 30% higher in perennial grassland than in forested land. Additional work is still needed to estimate the net CO2 balance of these soils.

Which EU Country Contributes Most to GHG Emissions in the LULUCF Sector Relative to Population and GDP?

Abstract In pursuit of climate neutrality, EU nations must collectively address the problem of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutants, which necessitates equitable economic strategies. However, the heterogeneous economic, social, and geographical profiles present hurdles in enacting a cohesive policy framework and realizing shared goals. Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector play a crucial role in achieving the EU 2050 climate neutrality goal, as LULUCF is both a source and a sink for GHG emissions, it provides products like wood and biomass that help to reduce emissions in other sectors. This paper aims to compare GHG emissions of different EU countries by using targeted indicators related to per capita and to GDP per capita to enhance the analysis. The results reveal substantial differences in emissions in relation to population and GDP per capita between selected EU countries, even among countries with similar profiles, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Notably, countries with lower GDP per capita and smaller population tend to have higher emission values, suggesting less efficiency in managing land use and forestry. The study highlights the need for multi-year data analysis to identify trends in emissions and removals within the LULUCF sector, considering the impacts of natural disasters and economic activities such as bark beetle outbreak or wood harvesting.

Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH4), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH4. Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories.

Lost in the scenarios of negative emissions: The role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can be a useful and cost-effective climate change mitigation tool but it is reliant on economic incentives. With this policy perspective article we question the ongoing discussion about the use of biomass for BECCS with basis in three points: (1) under the enhanced transparency framework under the Paris agreement, all parties to the agreement will use the same guidelines to estimate emissions by sources and removals by sinks, in which the emissions and removals in connection to cultivation of biomass are accounted for in the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, (2) adding carbon capture to existing processes may lead to a shift in products from that process rather than an increase in biomass use, and (3) BECCS requires substantial financial incentives. With basis in these points, we argue that a certification framework for BECCS that contradicts the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risks unnecessarily hindering deployment of a potentially cost-effective climate change mitigation tool.

The consolidated European synthesis of CO2emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020

Abstract. Quantification of land surface–atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 fossil) and natural (including formally managed ecosystems) sources and sinks over land (CO2 land) using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and United Kingdom (EU27+UK), updating earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of approaches involved, this study aims to answer essential questions identified in the previous syntheses and understand the differences between datasets, particularly for poorly characterized fluxes from managed and unmanaged ecosystems. The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven categorical model results, and inverse modeling estimates, extending the previous period 1990–2018 to the year 2020 to the extent possible. BU and TD products are compared with the European national greenhouse gas inventory (NGHGI) reported by parties including the year 2019 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The uncertainties of the EU27+UK NGHGI were evaluated using the standard deviation reported by the EU member states following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and harmonized by gap-filling procedures. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), originate from within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing the NGHGI with other approaches, key sources of differences between estimates arise primarily in activities. System boundaries and emission categories create differences in CO2 fossil datasets, while different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities result in differences for CO2 land. The latter has important consequences for atmospheric inversions, leading to inversions reporting stronger sinks in vegetation and soils than are reported by the NGHGI. For CO2 fossil emissions, after harmonizing estimates based on common activities and selecting the most recent year available for all datasets, the UNFCCC NGHGI for the EU27+UK accounts for 926 ± 13 Tg C yr−1, while eight other BU sources report a mean value of 948 [937,961] Tg C yr−1 (25th, 75th percentiles). The sole top-down inversion of fossil emissions currently available accounts for 875 Tg C in this same year, a value outside the uncertainty of both the NGHGI and bottom-up ensemble estimates and for which uncertainty estimates are not currently available. For the net CO2 land fluxes, during the most recent 5-year period including the NGHGI estimates, the NGHGI accounted for −91 ± 32 Tg C yr−1, while six other BU approaches reported a mean sink of −62 [-117,-49] Tg C yr−1, and a 15-member ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) reported −69 [-152,-5] Tg C yr−1. The 5-year mean of three TD regional ensembles combined with one non-ensemble inversion of −73 Tg C yr−1 has a slightly smaller spread (0th–100th percentiles of [-135,+45] Tg C yr−1), and it was calculated after removing net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transport of carbon (crop trade, wood trade, river transport, and net uptake from inland water bodies), resulting in increased agreement with the NGHGI and bottom-up approaches. Results at the category level (Forest Land, Cropland, Grassland) generally show good agreement between the NGHGI and category-specific models, but results for DGVMs are mixed. Overall, for both CO2 fossil and net CO2 land fluxes, we find that current independent approaches are consistent with the NGHGI at the scale of the EU27+UK. We conclude that CO2 emissions from fossil sources have decreased over the past 30 years in the EU27+UK, while land fluxes are relatively stable: positive or negative trends larger (smaller) than 0.07 (−0.61) Tg C yr−2 can be ruled out for the NGHGI. In addition, a gap on the order of 1000 Tg C yr−1 between CO2 fossil emissions and net CO2 uptake by the land exists regardless of the type of approach (NGHGI, TD, BU), falling well outside all available estimates of uncertainties. However, uncertainties in top-down approaches to estimate CO2 fossil emissions remain uncharacterized and are likely substantial, in addition to known uncertainties in top-down estimates of the land fluxes. The data used to plot the figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8148461 (McGrath et al., 2023).

After-use of cutover peatland from the perspective of landowners: Future effects on the national greenhouse gas budget in Finland

Recently, increased attention has been drawn to the greenhouse gas emissions of the Land use, Land use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. In the Finnish LULUCF sector, the soil-originated emissions from the after-use of cutover peatland have become a more relevant question. This is due to the rapid increase in the number of former peat-harvesting sites, caused by the decline in the combustion of energy peat due to its high CO2 emissions. We conducted a nationally representative survey to study which after-use options of cutover peatlands are preferred by landowners. Based on the preferred after-use options, we estimated their impact on the national greenhouse gas emissions in the Finnish regions in 2035, and what factors influence the landowners’ choice of after-use options. We found that the four most popular after-use options for landowners were afforestation (71%), agriculture (24%), production of wind and solar power (22%) and rewetting (18%) when the respondent chose the three most attractive options. However, there were clear regional differences in the preferred after-use options, which might lead, if realized, to different soil-originated emissions at the regional level. The preferred after-use options could produce emissions of 0.35 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year (Mt CO2 eq y−1) by 2035 in Finland. Most of these emissions (30.1%) would come from South Ostrobothnia in western Finland, mainly due to the indicated high interest in agricultural after-use. Most landowners prefer financially profitable after-use options, such as forestry, agriculture, as well as wind and solar energy production in cutover peatlands. However, environmentally oriented landowners favour many kinds of actions to support biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and water protection in cutover peatlands. It is crucial that economic productivity and the greenhouse gas sinks of cutover peatlands be considered simultaneously to meet the climate targets of the LULUCF sector in Finland.

Open Foris Collect Earth: a remote sensing sampling survey of Azerbaijan to support climate change reporting in the land use, land use change, and forestry.

Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are critical in climate change mitigation. Producing or collecting activity data for LULUCF is essential in developing national greenhouse gas inventories, national communications, biennial update reports, and nationally determined contributions to meet international commitments under climate change. Collect Earth is a free, publicly accessible software for monitoring dynamics between all land use classes: forestlands, croplands, grasslands, wetlands, settlements, and other lands. Collect Earth supports countries in monitoring the trends in land use and land cover over time by applying a sample-based approach and generating reliable, high-quality, consistent, accurate, transparent, robust, comparable, and complete activity data through augmented visual interpretation for climate change reporting. This article reports forest extent estimates in Azerbaijan, analyzing 7782 0.5-ha sampling units through an augmented visual interpretation of very high spatial and temporal resolution images on the Google Earth platform. The results revealed that in 2016, tree cover existed in 31.9% of total land, equal to 2,751,167ha and 1,301,188ha or 15.1% of the total land, with a 5.4% sampling error covered by forests. The estimate is 15 to 25% higher than the previous estimates, equal to 169,418 to 260,888ha of forest that was never reported in previous studies.

Assessment of sectoral greenhouse gas emission effects of biomass, fossil fuel, and (non)metallic ore utilization of the Nordic economy

AbstractIn a rare empirical approach, and considering the uniqueness of the Nordic economy, this study examines the differential effect of domestic material utilization, i.e., biomass, fossil fuel, metallic ores, and non-metallic ores on the sectoral greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, i.e., industrial, agricultural, land use, land use change and forestry (LULCF), waste management, and energy GHG emissions in the period 1990–2020. By applying competent econometric tools that accounts for potential estimation bias, the result revealed that metallic ore consumption among the Nordic countries is detrimental to the region’s environmental sustainability, more so to the region’s greening circular economy drive. This is because metallic ore utilization spurs industrial, agricultural, LULCF, waste management, and energy GHG emissions. Similarly, biomass material consumption spurs GHG emissions arising from the LULCF, waste management, and energy sector activities while fossil fuel materials spur LULCF and energy GHG emissions. However, non-metallic ores consumption provides a desirable outcome as it mitigates GHG emission with respective elasticities of ~0.06, ~0.01, and ~0.05, in the industrial, agricultural, and waste management sector activities while biomass also plays a statistically significant role of reducing agricultural GHG emission by ~0.02% when there is a percent increase in the consumption of biomass. Important policy measures are put forward following the interesting revelation from the investigation.

Climate-smart peatland management and the potential for synergies between food security and climate change objectives in Indonesia

Tropical peatlands lie at a nexus of competing sustainable development demands of enhancing food security, mitigating climate change, improving resilience and supporting rural livelihoods. Meeting United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires balancing these various demands. Progress in meeting SDGs has been slow in low to middle income countries because of difficulties in identifying and quantifying the trade offs associated with natural resource exploitation, including on extensive areas of tropical peatlands.Here, by using secondary data from the literature, Indonesian and international agencies, we examine how land-use allocation in Indonesia has developed over the last three decades by investigating trends of key food and woody crops (oil palm and rubber) and evaluate the role that peatland provinces have played in food security and climate forcing. Overall, food crop production has been marginal in peatland provinces compared to monoculture woody crops, with the latter associated with increased carbon emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) over the last thirty years. Our analysis shows that synergies between responses to looming food security and climate change crises can also promote less damaging forms of tropical peatland management. For instance, the conversion of degraded shallow peatlands to agroecological practices (e.g., paludiculture) can be promoted. However, we stress that peatland conservation and restoration must remain the top priority. Impediments due to lack of a common definition for peatland and planning/management units, the use of multiple sectoral maps by different government agencies and uncoordinated sectoral policy targets can, however, hinder the implementation of less damaging peatland management.

Storing Carbon in Forest Biomass and Wood Products in Poland—Energy and Climate Perspective

Huge amounts of carbon being sequestered in forest ecosystems make them an important land carbon sink at the global scale. Their ability to withdraw carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, whose concentration is gradually increasing due to anthropogenic emissions, renders them important natural climate-mitigation solutions. The urgent need for transition from high to zero net emission on country, continental, and global scales, to slow down the warming to an acceptable level, calls for the analysis of different economic sectors’ roles in reaching that ambitious goal. Here, we examine changes in CO2 emission and sequestration rates during recent decades focusing on the coal-dominated energy sector and Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) as well as wood production at the country level. The main purpose of the presented study is to examine the potential of storing carbon in standing forest biomass and wood products in Poland as well as the impact of disturbances. The ratio of LULUCF absorption of CO2 to its emission in Poland has ranged from about 1% in 1992 to over 15% in 2005. From a climate-change mitigation point of view, the main challenge is how to maximize the rate and the duration of CO2 withdrawal from the atmosphere by its storage in forest biomass and wood products. Enhancing carbon sequestration and storage in forest biomass, via sustainable and smart forestry, is considered to be a nature-based climate solution. However, not only forests but also wood-processing industries should be included as important contributors to climate-change mitigation, since harvested wood products substitute materials like concrete, metal, and plastic, which have a higher carbon footprint. The energy perspective of the paper embraces two aspects. First, CO2 sequestration in forests and subsequently in harvested wood products, is an effective strategy to offset a part of national CO2 emissions, resulting largely from fossil fuel burning for energy-production purposes. Second, wood as biomass is a renewable energy source itself, which played an important role in sustaining energy security for many individual citizens of Poland during the unusual conditions of winter 2022/2023, with a scarce coal supply.

IMPACT OF LULUCF ACCOUNTING RULES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION GOALS: WINNING OR LOSING?

Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays an important role in climate change mitigation as long-term goal of carbon neutral economy depends on sector’s ability to sequestrate carbon in biomass and soil. With reference to the Paris Agreement, accounting rules for LULUCF sector have been heavily discussed in European Union (EU), seeking of trustworthy inclusion of the sector in the assessment of Union’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target. Therefore, the paper aims to analyze LULUCF sector’s contribution to climate change mitigation with different accounting rules applied in EU countries and particularly in Lithuania. On EU level LULUCF sector’s absorption in 2019 has equaled around –234 million t CO2 eq. (6% of total EU GHG emissions), in some countries reaching more than a half of national emissions. However, different accounting rules applied may provide significantly different number of potential credits for separate EU countries, creating some “winners” and “losers” situation. Though inclusion of LULUCF sector into GHG’s emissions reduction targets remains discussible, some stability in rules is one of the main preconditions for proper LULUCF sector management decisions.

The role of forests in the EU climate policy: are we on the right track?

BackgroundThe European Union (EU) has committed to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This requires a rapid reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ensuring that any remaining emissions are balanced through CO2 removals. Forests play a crucial role in this plan: they are currently the main option for removing CO2 from the atmosphere and additionally, wood use can store carbon durably and help reduce fossil emissions. To stop and reverse the decline of the forest carbon sink, the EU has recently revised the regulation on land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and set a target of − 310 Mt CO2e net removals for the LULUCF sector in 2030.ResultsIn this study, we clarify the role of common concepts in forest management – net annual increment, harvest and mortality – in determining the forest sink. We then evaluate to what extent the forest sink is on track to meet the climate goals of the EU. For this assessment we use data from the latest national GHG inventories and a forest model (Carbon Budget Model). Our findings indicate that on the EU level, the recent decrease in increment and the increase in harvest and mortality are causing a rapid drop in the forest sink. Furthermore, continuing the past forest management practices is projected to further decrease the sink. Finally, we discuss options for enhancing the sinks through forest management while taking into account adaptation and resilience.ConclusionsOur findings show that the EU forest sink is quickly developing away from the EU climate targets. Stopping and reversing this trend requires rapid implementation of climate-smart forest management, with improved and more timely monitoring of GHG fluxes. This enhancement is crucial for tracking progress towards the EU’s climate targets, where the role of forests has become – and is expected to remain – more prominent than ever before.

Using Open Foris Collect Earth in Kyrgyzstan to support greenhouse gas inventory in the land use, land use change, and forestry sector.

The Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan) is one of the countries most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in Central Asia. The land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector is critical in climate change mitigation in Kyrgyzstan and is integral to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. However, consistent, complete, and updated activity data is required for the LULUCF sector to develop a transparent GHG inventory. Collect Earth (CE), developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), is a free, user-friendly, and open-source tool for collecting activity data for the LULUCF sector. CE assists countries in developing GHG inventories by providing consistent and complete land representation. This article reports an estimate of land use and land-use change dynamics in Kyrgyzstan, based on analyzing 13,414 1-hectare (ha) sampling units through an augmented visual interpretation approach using satellite imagery at the very high spatial and temporal resolution available through the Google Earth platform. The results show that in 2019, forests covered 1.36 million ha or 6.83% of the total land with a 6.23% uncertainty. This estimate was 5 to 16% higher than previous estimates, detecting an additional 63,024 to 188,164ha of forestland that had not been reported previously. The new estimates suggest an average increase of 10.4% in the current forestlands of Kyrgyzstan.

European forest sinks and climate targets: past trends, main drivers, and future forecasts

We examine the evolution of European net sinks towards 2030 and the European Union’s (EU) climate neutrality target by 2050. The EU’s current land use policy for 2021–2030 is divided into two periods: 2021–2025 and 2026–2030. The national inventory data from several databases and statistical analyses are used to examine the trends and drivers and to forecast future forest sinks and the net sinks of the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. Our forecasts suggest that national forest sinks will be short of the agreed forest reference levels in most member states in 2021–2025, with a total of 128 MtCO2eq. For 2026–2030, the net sink for the whole EU LULUCF sector will be short of the EU target by 298 MtCO2eq. Thus, most member states must design more efficient LULUCF policies to fulfil their national targets. Furthermore, the decreasing trends in the LULUCF sinks also emphasize the need to reduce emissions and to increase the sinks in most member states so that the EU can achieve its climate neutrality goal by 2050.

Annual emissions of carbon from land use, land-use change, and forestry from 1850 to 2020

Abstract. Estimates of the annual emissions of carbon from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are important for constructing global, regional, and national carbon budgets, which in turn help predict future rates of climate change and define potential strategies for mitigation. Here, we update a long-term (1850–2020) series of annual national carbon emissions resulting from LULUCF (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/U7GHRH, Houghton and Castanho, 2023), based largely, after 1960, on statistics of land use from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/, FAO, 2021). Those data suggest that rates of deforestation in the tropics (and thus net emissions of carbon) have decreased over the last 10 years (2011–2020). The data also indicate that the net loss of tropical forest area was greater than the net gain in agricultural lands, and we explore four alternative explanations for this apparent forest conversion, one of which is shifting cultivation. We also discuss how opposing trends in recent estimates of tropical deforestation (and emissions) might be reconciled. The calculated emissions of carbon attributable to LULUCF approximate the anthropogenic component of terrestrial carbon emissions, but limiting national carbon accounting to the anthropogenic component may also limit the potential for managing carbon on land.