Land Use In England Research Articles

A spatial analysis of plant phenophase changes and the impact of increases in urban land use

ABSTRACTChanges in phenology are indicators of climate change. Urban land use influences local climates through mechanisms such as urban heat island (UHI) effects. This research examined the spatio‐temporal variations in first flowering with changes in urban land use in England and Wales. It used standard ordinary least squares (OLSs) regressions and geographically weighted regressions (GWRs) to analyse changes in phenophase observation date between 1934 and 2007 for three tree species. TheOLSmodels suggested that first flowering was getting earlier: blackthorn by 0.28 days per year, hawthorn by 0.16 days per year and horse chestnut by 0.13 days per year. These rates were found to vary spatially whenGWRwas used and the greatest rates of change were found to be highly localized. The addition of land use change was found to improve the model fit and suggested that a 10% increase in urban land use was also associated with phenophase advancement of 1.20 days for blackthorn, 0.57 days for hawthorn and 0.90 days for horse chestnut. When the impacts of urban land use changes was analysed usingGWR, the associations with phenophase advancement were found to vary spatially, strongest associations were generally more pronounced in the north and especially in the extreme south‐west and the north for all species. The results of this research suggest that the impacts of climate changes and the effects of urban land use changes on phenology vary spatially and that the impacts of urban expansion, such asUHIeffects, may not be uniform. These findings suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses to quantify the local impacts and drivers of climate changes and their associated feedbacks.

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.

Rural land use in England and Wales between 1930 and 1998: Mapping trajectories of change with a high resolution spatio-temporal dataset

In this paper I present a method to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use change at representative sites in England and Wales between 1930 and 1998. Multiple data sources have been integrated to provide an estimate of land use change at 23 randomly located sites for 6 time-steps ranging from 1930 through to 1998. The method is called ‘stability mapping’ and exploits the spatial data handling capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to pinpoint those specific areas of individual sites most prone to land use change. It involves the calculation of three indices: similarity, turnover and diversity as well as the detailed analysis of trajectories of change. An assessment is made of the impact of changing spatial and temporal resolution on the behaviour of these metrics and recommendations on their use are offered. The approach as outlined would be equally applicable in other locations where good quality historical map data are available.

Rural land use in England and Wales and the delivery to the adjacent seas of nitrogen, phosphorus and atrazine

Rural land use in England and Wales and the delivery to the adjacent seas of nitrogen, phosphorus and atrazine

Rural land use in England and Wales and the delivery to the adjacent seas of nitrogen, phosphorus and atrazine

Abstract. In an exploratory study land use in 27 catchments covering most of England and Wales was assessed (using the land use classification devised by the then Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, now a part of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology) and related to loads and concentrations of total nitrogen, phosphorus (mainly as orthophosphate (Op)) and some pesticides in river flows reaching the surrounding seas in the years 1990–1993. There are good correlations between seven land use types and the concentrations of total nitrogen (r=0.83) and Op (r=0.73) entering the seas. The correlations for individual land use types are best for arable land: total nitrogen, r=0.77; Op, r=0.65; and are positive. However, except for the mixed arable and grassland, the relationships between the other five land use types (improved grassland, upland grassland, upland moorland, upland mixed, and afforested and upland) and contaminant concentrations are negative. If data from the Mersey catchment are discarded, on the grounds that contaminant concentrations in the river seem unduly high, correlations between land use and contaminant concentrations reaching the seas are improved for all land uses: total nitrogen, r=0.89; Op, r=0.83; and atrazine, r=0.78. Loads and concentrations of pollutants in rivers entering the sea could be used to validate models of losses from catchments. Models may need to take greater account of runoff and transport of soil particles than they do presently.

Modelling the impact of BSE policy on agriculture in England and Wales

A dynamic model of United Kingdom (UK) milk and beef production and a linear programming model of land use in England and Wales were used to explore the likely impact on agriculture in England and Wales of measures to eliminate Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in the UK. Three different scenarios were explored that reflecting uncertainties concerning the future demand for UK beef. Projections show marketed beef output up to 20% lower in 2000 compared to the 1995 level and an extensification of beef production in response to the BSE crisis. This extensification may have environmental benefits and mean that producers are better prepared to respond to Agenda 2000 reforms. The findings highlight the importance of restoring consumer confidence in UK beef and the complete removal of the worldwide ban on UK beef exports.

Reviews: World Cities in a World-System, The Rural Economy: An Evolutionary Perspective, the Changing Geography of Agricultural Land Use in England and Wales 1975–90, Weaving the Seamless Web: A Consideration of Network Analysis and its Potential Application to the Study of the Rural Economy, the Household as a Focus for Comparative Research, Edge of Empire: Postcolonialism and the City, Housing,

Reviews: World Cities in a World-System, The Rural Economy: An Evolutionary Perspective, the Changing Geography of Agricultural Land Use in England and Wales 1975–90, Weaving the Seamless Web: A Consideration of Network Analysis and its Potential Application to the Study of the Rural Economy, the Household as a Focus for Comparative Research, Edge of Empire: Postcolonialism and the City, Housing,

Agricultural Land Use Change in England and Wales, 1892-1992

The paper presents a method for transforming Agricultural Census data on land use from arbitrary administrative reporting units to a set of more environmentally meaningful land classes. The procedure is used to analyse historical patterns of land use in England and Wales. The results demonstrate that cropping patterns are related systematically to land capability and reveal the complex adjustments in the spatial distribution of land uses that have underlain changes in the overall cropping mix over the past century.

The likely effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales

This article summarises the results of a modelling study that examines how the geographical pattern of agricultural land use and production in England and Wales might be affected by climate change. Various scenarios of regional climate change are considered by the model within a price and demand framework of a world food market also affected by global warming. The study concludes that over 3M ha of current farmland may become unprofitable for agriculture by 2060 (assuming no climate change). In addition, under the global warming scenarios postulated, a radical shift in the location of agricultural production, particularly of cereals, would be likely to occur. The merits of this modelling approach and its usefulness are also discussed.

Integrating global and regional analyses of the effects of climate change: A case study of land use in England and Wales

The purpose of this paper is to exemplify a means by which an integrated assessment can be made of global and regional effects on land use of climate change. This is achieved by use of data on the effects of climate change on world food prices as inputs to a regional land use allocation model. Data on world prices are drawn from a recent global study of climate change and crop yields. In a case study of England and Wales a land allocation model is used to infer changes of land use that are the product of the integrated effect of climate-induced global price changes and climate-related changes of yield in England and Wales. This combination of changed prices and yield potential is used to calculate the land use providing the highest returns for each of 155,235 1 km2 cells of land in England and Wales for a future assumed for the year 2060 (without climate change) and then for that same environment with climate change. The difference between these two is then treated as an estimated effect resulting from climate change.

Land quality and land use in England and Wales

Land quality and land use in England and Wales

Recent Changes and Future Prospects of Land Use in England and Wales

In terms of land area, urbanization has undoubtedly been the main generator of changes in land use over the greater part of the present century. Even so, our urban-orientated society, with some 80 per cent of the population living in adminis? trative urban areas, may tend to over-emphasize the scale of this change because of constant contact with, and therefore awareness of, the processes of urbanization in action. Visually, urban growth, even more than afforestation, is a fundamental and distinctive alteration in the landscape which it is unlikely that the eye can overlook; and consequently any superficial assessment of the extent of new urban develop? ment is profoundly conditioned by qualitative rather than quantitative judgments. Such appraisals, which are often additionally charged with emotional attitudes, can, and frequently do, lead to an almost complete obscuring of the actual facts of the situation as far as the extent and rate of change are involved. It is, therefore, essen? tial for any objective evaluation of shifts between the major uses of land to have reasonably accurate statistical information of what is in fact happening in the country as a whole, and in various parts of it, over an extended period of time. ' Changes of occupancy' data.?The only source of comprehensive information on shifts in the use of land is provided by the ' changes of occupancy' data derived from the agricultural returns submitted by farmers to the statistical branch of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food on June 4 each year. When a holding is found to have altered in acreage significantly compared with the previous year, and when the discrepancy does not represent the interchange of land with another occupier for agricultural purposes, the loss of land is investigated by local officers of the Ministry and a record is made of the new use to which the farmland is being transferred. Gains of farmland from other uses are also recorded. These figures are then aggregated and national totals for net transfers of agricultural land are issued periodically (Best, 1959, chap. 7). Although such figures are available for as far back as 1927/28, it is probable that the earlier statistics are less accurate than those of more recent date. In particular, in the pre-war years only gross changes were calculated and, therefore, an estimate of net losses had to be made. Since the end of the war, however, these statistics have been established on a firmer basis and, in spite of reservations by the Ministry of Agriculture to the effect that the figures are approximate only and should be treated with some caution, it would seem from data collected by local planning authorities and from other sources (Best, 1959, p. 84; Agricultural Land Service, 1958) that they provide a reasonably correct statement of