Land Price Changes Research Articles

An Empirical Study on the Land Price Changes in the Commercial District of Metropolitan Tokyo

An Empirical Study on the Land Price Changes in the Commercial District of Metropolitan Tokyo

Residential Land Price Changes in Mexican Cities and the Affordability of Land for Low-income Groups

This research demonstrates that the price of residential land in Mexico declined significantly in real terms during the 1980s. Land prices appear to follow a cyclical trend which tracks Mexico's macro-economic performance. Data derived from advertised plot prices in newspapers, and from a large sample of household interviews conducted in low-income settlements in three intermediate-sized Mexican cities, suggest that, for the poor, real wage levels are the key determinant of changing affordability. The erosion of real wages has led to some decline in affordability, but this has largely been offset by multiple-earning strategies within households through which purchasing power may be maintained.

Measuring Economic Benefits of Flood Control Works

The purpose of this paper is to propose a simple and practical model in order to measure economic benefits of flood control works. This model estimates a change in both capital gain and land use due to the flood control works. Our approach is to forecast a change in land use in a small zone by adopting a growth curve method to express the difference in urbanzation between with and without the project. At the same time our model adopts a hedonic land price function which includes valuables of urbanzation and the safety level of flood. Applying this model to the S river flood control works, the benefit measured by land price change amounts to the 300 billion yen which is 10 times of its investment cost. Also comparing this result with the damage cost of 100 billion yen measured by the conventional property value method, it turns out that the indirect effect will be 2/3 of total benefits.

Effects of urban transportation system change on land prices in the setting of owner-occupied residence

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of transportation improvement on the land development process and land price structure in an owner-occupied residence setting. A dynamic model of household and landowner in which the role of land as an asset is explicitly considered is presented, and the process of land development and land price change after the announcement of transportation improvement is investigated. During the period between the announcement and the completion of urban transportation improvement, it is observed that the price of the land that is presently used for agriculture but will be developed in the future is higher than the agricultural land price.

An Investment Model for Commercial Afforestation in Scotland

The decision to invest in forestry is based on the assessment of a wide range of factors which include the location and amenity of the land and its wildlife and sporting potential. In the context of commercial forestry schemes however, forestry investment is underpinned by the likely financial return on capital invested. The approach described in this paper involves modelling the physical and economic characteristics of commercial forestry using a structured, systematic sample of over 3000 sites throughout Scotland. The objective is to identify the location and area of land with afforestation potential on the basis of returns to capital and Expectation Land Value. Output from the model suggests that commercial forestry is competitive with agriculture on approximately 1.3 million ha. Greatest potential exists on Land Capability for Agriculture classes 4, 5 and 6. The ability to assess the effect of changes in grant support, land and timber prices is an important feature of the model. It has the scope for application at regional and national levels, and particularly in the development and ex-post assessment of Indicative Forestry Strategies. Future work will concentrate on expanding the model to include more species and to improve the integration with computer-based Geographical Information Systems.

Spatial transformation in cities of the developing world: Multinucleation and land-capital substitution in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá has undergone a significant spatial transformation in recent years. Subcenters of employment and commerce have formed at peripheral locations, and these have become surrounded by high-density residential activity. This paper uses several large data sets to describe and analyze these changes. We estimate multicentric density and land value gradients for the years 1973 and 1985, and then explore how housing producers respond to changes in land prices, by calculating a land-capital substitution elasticity. The results slow clearly the declining relevance of the monocentric model over time, and also provide an explanation for the densification of the city.

Land prices, rents and inflation: A cointegration analysis

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between real agricultural land prices and real rents for farmland using annual data. Taking account of inflation as a third variable there is evidence to suggest that rents and land prices are cointegrated; that is, changes in rents are mirrored in the long run by changes in land prices. It is also found that the implied real rate of return in the land market is around 3%.

STRUCTURAL ASPECTS OF BEEF PRODUCTION ON PASTURES IN THE SUMMER RAINFALL GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS OF SOUTH AFRICA

ABSTRACT A dynamic linear programming matrix is assembled in order to model the South African summer grain industry. Supply, demand and production risk, including interactions with production substitutes, are considered. The model is tested by imposing all of the policies which were in operation at that time to see if it adequately simulates the prevailing situation. The model is used to evaluate the possible structural effects of subsidising farmers to change over land under cash crop production to pastures for beef, taking into account the inter-relationships in grain markets in Southern Africa. These effects are evaluated under different marketing policies with regard to changes in land use, prices, labour requirements and producer and consumer welfare. The main conclusion reached from this analysis is that by reforming or helping some industry or group of producers, its problems are merely transferred to other industries or producers owing to the inter-relationships in agriculture and the economy. It emphasises the need for an overall policy plan.

Interrelationships in maize markets in Southern Africa I: Structural effects of the farmer support programme

A dynamic linear programming matrix is assembled in order to model the Southern African summer grain industry. Supply, demand and production risk, including interactions with production substitutes, are considered. The model is used to evaluate the possible structural effects of the farmer support programme (FSP) taking into account the interrelationships in grain markets in Southern Africa. The effects are evaluated under different marketing policies with respect to changes in land use, prices and labour requirements. A macro view is taken. An effective FSP will lead to structural changes in land use, prices of products and labour requirements. The effect of the FSP on production, prices and labour will not only vary according to the success in changing over from subsistence maize production to commercial farming in the developing areas, but is also dependent on marketing policies in general. The interrelationships in agriculture and the economy emphasise the need for an overall policy plan.

[Negative natural increase of population and its regional correlates]

Areas of Japan that have experienced a decline in natural population growth since World War II are analyzed and some regional trends are distinguished. Factors associated with population decline include rural-urban migration structural changes in a regions economy and changes in land prices. (ANNOTATION)

Speculation and Inflation in the Market for House-Building Land in England and Wales

This paper reports the results of an investigation into the behaviour of the market for private house-building land in England and Wales in the 1960s and 1970s. After Zeeman (1974), a distinction is drawn between the speculative and fundamental market operators, and econometric tests were carried out to identify their impact on land price changes. The property boom 1971–1973 and its collapse are discussed in the context of Zeeman's cusp catastrophe theory. Results of econometric experiments show that the interpretation of these events in terms of catastrophic switches is not entirely satisfactory, but that changes in money supply and credit availability may be more likely causes of the boom.

The development of agricultural land prices and ownership

In the first part of the article the question is raised if the land rent theory is still relevant to a situation in which, for more than 20 years, land prices have been rising much faster than agricultural income. The author gives a survey of the arguments brought forward to explain this divergence. The development in land prices is related to long-run changes in the distribution of land ownership. This is analysed in the second part of the article on the basis of statistical data from France. The author concludes that it is not simple to develop a theoretical framework to explain the relations between the changes in land prices and land ownership which both reflect the same underlying structural developments.