Land Data Assimilation System Research Articles

Revealing the Hidden Consequences of Increased Soil Moisture Storage in Greening Drylands

Vegetation primarily draws water from soil moisture (SM), with restoration in drylands often reducing SM storage (SMS). However, anomalies have been detected in the Beijing–Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) of China via the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). This study quantified the sources of increased SMS in drylands to elucidate the effects of vegetation restoration on SMS. The results indicated the following: (1) In vegetated drylands, 46.2% experienced a significant increase in SMS while 53.8% remained stable; both were positively correlated with the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). (2) The increase in SMS was accompanied by a decrease in groundwater storage (GWS), as indicated by the significant correlation coefficients of −0.710 and −0.569 for SMS and GWS, respectively. Furthermore, GWS served as the primary source of water for vegetation. (3) The results of the redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that the initial vegetation, the driver of the observed trend of increased SMS and decreased GWS, accounted for 50.3% of the variability in water storage. Therefore, to sustain dryland ecosystems, we recommend that future vegetation restoration projects give due consideration to the water balance while concurrently strengthening the dynamic monitoring of SMS and GWS.

A review on models, products and techniques for evapotranspiration measurement, estimation, and validation

AbstractIn this review study, the major available methods for measurement and estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) are discussed briefly while explaining the latest developments. The best available validation methods are also reviewed and explained. It highlights the importance of accurate ET quantification in managing water resources, evaluating climate change impacts, and supporting crop water requirement management. Measurement methods such as scintillometry, lysimetry, and the eddy covariance (EC) flux method are presented. Additionally, hydrological models are discussed as estimation approaches for actual and potential ET. The paper explores various ET estimation products, particularly those based on remote sensing techniques. Specifically, methods like Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational (SSEBop ET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MOD16), Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Global Land Surface Evaporation: Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM), Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA‐SAF), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are described. The integration of machine learning (ML) with EC and remote sensing is investigated, with a comprehensive discussion of different ML approaches. Validation methods including the EC method, water balance method‐derived ET (WBET), and statistical techniques are explained. Overall, this review paper provides a comprehensive overview of ET quantification, covering measurement techniques, estimation approaches, remote sensing methods, and the integration of ML. The insights gained from this review contribute to a profound knowledge of ET dynamics and helps those sectors dealing with drought monitoring, water resource management and climate change assessments.

Spatiotemporal coupling analysis of surface water and groundwater in Tibet based on multi-source sensors

Abstract. Lakes and groundwater are two crucial components of the global terrestrial water cycle, collectively forming a vital network for Earth's water resources. However, in the Tibetan region, the spatiotemporal relationship between lakes and groundwater and their impact on the local hydrological cycle remain inadequately understood. Satellite remote sensing serves as an effective observational tool, enabling comprehensive investigation and analysis of surface lakes and groundwater in Tibet with high spatial resolution. Therefore, this study integrates Landsat and Cryosat-2 satellite data to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of surface lake extents and water levels in Tibet. Additionally, combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations with the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model data, we quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal variations in groundwater storage and its correlation with lake water. The results indicate that: 1) Rivers and lakes in Tibet are mainly located in the central and northwest regions, displaying noticeable intra-annual variations; 2) Substantial lagged relationships exist between groundwater storage and lake water levels and areas, revealing that lakes contribute significantly to groundwater replenishment, especially in the Ngari prefecture and Lhokha prefecture. This study comprehensively utilizes multi-source remote sensing data to dynamically monitor surface and groundwater in Tibet, providing robust support for a better understanding of the interaction between groundwater and surface water.

Analyzing groundwater storage anomalies in data‐scarce areas of Ethiopia's Rift Valley Basin using artificial neural network

AbstractGroundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) study requires the use of hydro‐climatic models coupled with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment climate (GRACE) and GRACE Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO) Terrestrial Water Storage experiments. Understanding groundwater storage anomalies in the research area is difficult due to the restricted hydro‐meteorological data availability, especially, groundwater levels, changes in groundwater storage, and budgetary and technical constraints. No such investigation of GWS anomalies prior to this study in this Basin was conducted. The research focuses on GWSA investigations in the basin employing Global Land Data Assimilation Systems and Artificial Neural Networks‐Back Propagation Algorithm techniques are required. The ultimate objective of this study was to reduce the GRACE GWS from 1° to 0.25° and close the discontinuity between GRACE/GRACE‐FO observations. The results illustrated that GRACE/GRACE‐FO GWS throughout the basin were overall declining. The GWS anomaly significantly decreased between 2011 and 2013, with the highest monthly depletion in March 2011 (−158 mm). In contrast, from mid‐June to mid‐October, the maximum positive value varied from 20.80 mm in the southernmost basin to 39.49 mm in the central‐southeastern basin. The basin's eastern, central‐southeastern, northern, and southern areas displayed positive monthly GWS trends. The entire dry season has been influenced by negative anomalies. Hence, the identification of GWS variations and a comprehensive understanding of their effects provided valuable scientific insights. Identifying and analyzing anomalies in groundwater storage (GWS) can provide valuable information. This data can be efficiently used to develop appropriate regulatory frameworks, which may contribute to the long‐term viability of the availability of groundwater.

Optimal combinations of global evapotranspiration and terrestrial water storage products for catchment water balance

ABSTRACT During the last two decades, a great number of global products about evapotranspiration ( E ) and terrestrial water storage ( S ) have been released. This has led to numerous combinations for describing catchment water balance, and hence determining an appropriate combination has become an important issue. The main objective of this study is to evaluate various global products of E and S at the catchment scale and determine the most appropriate combination, taking two Korean catchments as examples. For E , we evaluated global evapotranspiration (Global ET), Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), and Penman–Monteith–Leuning (PML). For S , six individual datasets of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) were evaluated, with Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) products used for comparison. We found that the performance is sensitive to the choice of E product while various S products displayed minimal differences in results. Based on four evaluation criteria, the combination of PML and GRACE-SH-GFZ is suggested as the most suitable pair. For the period between 2003 and 2013, these data exhibit noteworthy trends of increasing E , offset by decreasing S . Warming climate is suspected to be behind these trends. Our research presents an approach that allows for the estimation of monthly streamflow exclusively with global data products, which is an advancement in hydrological analysis and particularly useful for regions that lack in-situ data networks. This approach provides a new perspective in the application of global datasets for the assessment of water balance and could significantly improve predictions in ungauged basins.

Temporal and spatial variations of terrestrial water storage in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau retrieved by GNSS observations

The variation of solid Earth's hydrologic loading could cause the elastic vertical deformation of the crust, and the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) could effectively monitor the vertical displacement of surface loads. However, the widely used Green's function method does not work well in areas where GNSS sites are sparse. Here, the vertical displacement time series of GNSS stations and the Slepian basis function method have been applied to convert displacement signals into spatial spectrum signals. The elastic mass load theory is used to study the changes in terrestrial water storage on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP). The temporal and spatial characteristics of seasonal water changes are well-represented by the GNSS, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Several data points suggest that the change in water storage shows a gradual increase from the northeast to the southwest. The greatest annual amplitude of water storage retrieved by GNSS is ~159 mm, which is greater than the ~47 mm and ~44 mm obtained by GRACE and GLDAS. These results demonstrate that GNSS is capable of capturing small-scale hydrological changes in this region, whereas GRACE and GLDAS data tend to underestimate seasonal variations in water storage. We also used GNSS to describe the hydrological drought conditions in NETP, showing that GNSS could be used as an independent method to characterize hydrological drought events. The findings suggest it could observe water storage with high spatial and temporal resolution and aid in comprehending regional hydrological trends with a sparse GNSS station network.

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. The spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

High flow prediction model integrating physically and deep learning based approaches with quasi real-time watershed data assimilation

When operating a flood forecasting system, it is crucial to prioritize both promptness and accuracy, along with reflecting the latest watershed conditions. This study proposes a hybrid model for rainfall-induced high flow prediction that combines an instantaneous physically-based model and a deep learning-based rainfall loss model assimilating with quasi real-time watershed conditions. Its primary objective is to present immediate and reliable high flow predictions, ensuring stability in prediction procedures. The surface runoff component of the model is based on nonlinear instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) derived using a dynamic wave model, which considers the nonlinearity between the rainfall excess intensity and the time to peak and peak flow of the IUH. To account for rainfall loss, which can significantly influence rainfall-runoff quantity, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is employed to establish link between key rainfall loss parameters and the latest watershed conditions obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The application of the proposed model to 28 high flow events reveals several noteworthy outcomes. Firstly, unlike conventional models that depend on fixed parameter values specific to each event, the proposed model offers immediate, stable, and highly accurate high flow predictions without the need for manual calibration. Secondly, the prioritization of parameters reflecting watershed conditions varies between different watersheds and depends on the rainfall events. These findings indicate the necessity to estimate rainfall loss parameters individually for each rainfall-runoff event in each watershed, as no universal value exists for these parameters. Lastly, despite the limited number of test cases conducted in this study, the LSTM model achieved sufficiently accurate rainfall loss estimation for high flow prediction using only 50 datasets.

Water availability identification from GRACE dataset and GLDAS hydrological model over data-scarce river basins of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The nature of the heterogeneity of terrestrial water storage in the main river basins of Ethiopia is poorly understood. In river basins, measurements of terrestrial water storage changes are exceedingly rare in all temporal dimensions. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variation of water storage in the main river basins of Ethiopia using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) with Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The results revealed significant variation in liquid water equivalents from GRACE and terrestrial water storage from GLDAS for each river basin, following a seasonal pattern. I found that GRACE and GLDAS datasets can be combined effectively to evaluate the long-term water storage in large-scale basins with limited hydrological data, and the obtained result provides a reliable outcome that will be essential for the establishment of climate change adaptation pathways in the future for essential water resource management and optimization.

The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2

Abstract. A new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system based on the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method is developed and applied to the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method is employed to implement 4DVar using the ensemble technique instead of the adjoint technique. With an interest in providing initial conditions for decadal climate predictions, monthly mean anomalies of soil moisture and temperature from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) reanalysis from 1980 to 2016 are assimilated into the land component of E3SMv2 within the coupled modeling framework with a 1-month assimilation window. The coupled assimilation experiment is evaluated using multiple metrics, including the cost function, assimilation efficiency index, correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and bias, and compared with a control simulation without land data assimilation. The WCLDA system yields improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature compared with the control simulation, with improvements found throughout the soil layers and in many regions of the global land. In terms of both soil moisture and temperature, the assimilation experiment outperforms the control simulation with reduced RMSE and higher temporal correlation in many regions, especially in South America, central Africa, Australia, and large parts of Eurasia. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought, highlighting the crucial role of land surface in drought lifecycle. The WCLDA system is intended to be a foundational resource for research to investigate land-derived climate predictability.

Assessing Groundwater Sustainability in the Arabian Peninsula and Its Impact on Gravity Fields through Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Measurements

This study addresses the imperative to comprehend gravity shifts resulting from groundwater storage (GWS) variations in the Arabian Peninsula. Despite the critical importance of water resource sustainability and its relationship with gravity, limited research emphasizes the need for expanded exploration. The investigation explores the impact of GWS extraction on the gravity field, utilizing Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data in addition to validation using the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). Spanning April 2002 to June 2023, this study predicts GWS trends over the next decade using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The comprehensive time-series analysis reveals a significant GRACE-derived groundwater storage (GWS) trend of approximately −4.90 ± 0.32 mm/year during the study period. This trend has a notable impact on the gravity anomaly (GA) values, as observed through the decomposition analysis. The projected GWS indicates a depletion rate of 14.51 km3/year over the next decade. The correlation between GWS and GA is substantial at 0.80, while the GA and rainfall correlation is negligible due to low precipitation rates. Employing multiple linear regression explains 80.61% of the variance in gravity anomaly due to GWS, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. This study investigates climate change factors—precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration—providing a holistic understanding of the forces shaping GWS variations. Precipitation and evapotranspiration exhibit nearly equal values, limiting GWS replenishment opportunities. This research holds significance in studying extensive GWS withdrawal in the Arabian Peninsula, particularly concerning crust mass stability.

Homogenized gridded dataset for drought and hydrometeorological modeling for the continental United States

We present a novel data set for drought in the continental US (CONUS) built to enable computationally efficient spatio-temporal statistical and probabilistic models of drought. We converted drought data obtained from the widely-used US Drought Monitor (USDM) from its native geo-referenced polygon format to a 0.5 degree regular grid. We merged known environmental drivers of drought, including those obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) teleconnections data. The resulting data set permits statistical and probabilistic modeling of drought with explicit spatial and/or temporal dependence. Such models could be used to forecast drought at short-range, seasonal to sub-seasonal, and inter-annual timescales with uncertainty, extending the reach and value of the current US Drought Outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. This novel data product provides the first common gridded dataset that includes critical variables used to inform hydrological and meteorological drought.

A framework on utilizing of publicly availability stream gauges datasets and deep learning in estimating monthly basin-scale runoff in ungauged regions

This study introduces a framework that strategically applies a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based approach for monthly runoff prediction in South Africa and Central Asia. The framework is distinct in its utilization of newly developed Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)-derived climate dynamics variables and Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archives (GSIM)-derived static descriptors, ensuring a consistent evaluation of Deep Learning (DL) performance across multiple continents, including North and South America, and Western Europe. Seven LSTM models were trained using seven different datasets, each representing a combination of these data-rich regions. We assessed the sensitivity of these seven training data sets to LSTM models by testing these trained models in predicting monthly basin-scale runoff across 214 test catchments located in South Africa and Central Asia. Our results show that runoff predictions generated by LSTM within the test domain could exhibit better prediction skills compared to those derived from GLDAS datasets. The performance of the trained LSTMs appears to be linked to hydrological similarities between the data-rich regions and the test basins. Also, our results indicate the importance of selecting the appropriate input sources for the LSTM models to achieve accurate runoff predictions at the test region. We emphasize the possibility of utilizing LSTM models that are leveraging on either North American catchments or a combination of South American and Western European catchments to predict basin-scale runoff in the test regions. To this end, this study harnesses the burgeoning availability of publicly stream-gauge datasets and DL to enhance water information prediction in ungauged regions, responding to the challenge of geographically unbalanced stream gauge instruments.

Characteristics of Soil Temperature Change in Lhasa in the Face of Climate Change

Soil temperature is an important index of climate change, and the analysis of soil temperature change is of great significance for understanding climate change and ecohydrological processes. This study was based on the measured meteorological data of a meteorological station, combined with the soil temperature data of 0–10, 10–40, 40–100 and 100–200 cm from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-NOAH). The Mann–Kendall test, wavelet analysis, linear tendency estimation and other methods were used to analyze the variability, periodicity and trend of soil temperature in Lhasa from 2006 to 2022. The results showed that the soil temperature of different soil layers had abrupt changes in annual and seasonal time series, and all showed a warming phenomenon after abrupt changes. In terms of periodicity, the average annual soil temperature of different soil layers has similar periodic changes, and the periodic oscillation is strong around 10a, which is the main cycle of soil temperature change. The soil temperature in Lhasa showed a significant rising trend in the interannual and seasonal time series, and the average annual rising trend of soil temperature was greater than that of air temperature. The correlation between soil temperature and mean air temperature (MAT), maximum air temperature (Tmax), minimum air temperature (Tmin) and snow depth (SD) was investigated by Pearson correlation analysis. Soil temperature in spring, autumn and winter had a strong correlation with MAT, Tmax and Tmin, showing a significant positive correlation. The negative correlation between soil temperature and SD in 0–40 cm soil in spring and winter was more severe. The research results show that Lhasa has experienced a rise in air temperature and soil temperature in the past 17 years, and reveal the specific changes in soil temperature in Lhasa against the background of climate change. These findings have reference significance for understanding the impact of climate change on the natural environment.

Main influencing factors of terrestrial evapotranspiration for different land cover types over the Tibetan Plateau in 1982–2014

Introduction: Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has important implications for the global water cycle, climate change, and ecosystem, and its changes and driving factors have drawn increasing attention. Previous research studies have minimally quantified the effects and identified the pathways of the influencing factors on ET over different land surface types.Methods: In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and variation of ET over the TP in 1982–2014 based on multiple datasets. Furthermore, the effects of each influencing factor on ET are quantified over different land surface types, and the major influencing factors and their affecting pathways are identified using structure equation modeling (SEM), which is a statistical method used to analyze relationships among multiple variables.Results: The results show that the climatology of ET decreases gradually from southeastern to northwestern TP, with the maximum spatial averaged value of 379.979 ± 0.417 mm a−1 for the fifth generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5) and the minimum of 249.899 ± 0.469 mm a−1 for the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The most significant differences among the ET datasets mainly occur in the summer. The annual ET averaged over the TP presents an increased trend from 1982 to 2014, as shown by all of the ET datasets. However, there are larger discrepancies in the spatial distribution of the increased trend for these datasets. The assessment result shows that the 0.05° land evapotranspiration dataset for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (LEDQTP) has the highest temporal correlation coefficient (0.80) and the smallest root-mean-square error (23.50 mm) compared to the observations. Based on LEDQTP, we find that precipitation is the main influencing factor of ET, which primarily affects ET through direct pathways in bare soil and grassland regions, with standardized estimates of 0.521 and 0.606, respectively. However, in meadow and shrub and forest regions, the primary factor influencing ET is air temperature, which is primarily affected by an indirect pathway through a vapor pressure deficit. Air temperature is also the controlling factor in sparse vegetation regions, but it affects ET through a direct pathway.Discussion: This study may provide some new useful information on the effects of climate change on ET in different land cover types over the TP.

Role of remote-sensing techniques in unveiling the spatiotemporal response of vegetation to climate change in the western Makkah Province of Saudi Arabia

Climate change is a global problem that dramatically affects natural resources, resulting in significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which affect vegetation cover. Under this light, this study aimed to identify the potential of remote-sensing techniques to reveal the spatiotemporal response of vegetation cover to climate change in the western Makkah Province using Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat-8 operational land imager, Global Land Data Assimilation System model, Global Precipitation Measurement, and Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System model data from 2000 to 2023. Optimised Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (OSAVI), classification, overlay, change detection, and correlation analysis were utilized to process data. Time series analysis of data revealed climate-related changes which were particularly intense in recent years. Specifically, temperature, precipitation, and specific humidity were found to differ depending on the landforms and season. Temperature was higher during the dry season compared to the wet season. A decrease was observed in the overall precipitation rate, which did not exceed 81.39 mm during the wet season and approximately 11.46 mm during the dry season. Additionally, precipitation increased in 2023 but decreased in 2018. Moreover, the study area was located on semi-arid lands for all years except for the wet season of 2023. OSAVI analysis, which is sensitive to climate change, revealed that vegetation coverage can be both positively and negatively affected by climate change. The most profound vegetation coverage in the study region was observed in 2023. A strong correlation was also observed between precipitation and vegetation in the study area, which showed less high-greenness in the dry season and more widespread grasses. The implications of these findings for the development of strategies for biodiversity conservation in semi-arid regions are significant.

Reconstructing monthly 0.25° terrestrial evapotranspiration data in a remote arid region using Bayesian-driven ensemble learning method

This study presents a Bayesian-driven ensemble learning framework to minimize errors in evapotranspiration (ET) data assimilation, thereby generating a continuous-scale ET estimation with improved accuracy for the data-scarce arid Central Asia (CA). Five state-of-the-art gridded ET products were extensively tested and utilized to reconstruct new long-term ET data at grid scale, including two Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)-Land Surface Models (LSM) (Catchment and NOAH), two reanalysis products (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications – ver. 2 (MERRA2)), along with the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam (GLEAM) satellite ET product ver. 3.6b. Taylor Skill Score was employed to evaluate the input gridded ET datasets, using in situ measurements across four arid biomes — cropland, shrubland, farmland, and grassland —as benchmarks. Bayes-Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Bayes-MCMC)-derived logarithmically transformed predictors from the posterior ensemble anomalies were standardized to resolve the mismatches in the cumulative distribution functions of ET data relating to the in situ observations. We found that the constrained residual errors were more profound between 45th and 95th percentiles for the rescaled total ET anomalies across all the input ET datasets at 95 % confidence interval. Moreover, the weighted ensemble estimates derived from the Bayes-MCMC were instrumental in correcting ET anomalies, leading to the robust reconstruction of a more reliable ensemble mean ET data for Central Asia (CAETens) at monthly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolutions, spanning from 2003 to 2020. Overall, CAETens exhibited superior performance, achieving the highest averaged Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.75 and registering the lowest Root Mean Square Error of 6.85 mm/m compared to the standalone gridded ET products. Comparisons of spatial distributions of fine-scale features, and evaluations using standard metrics revealed that all ET products varied significantly (p < 0.05) by biome types. Remarkably, only CAETens exhibited a reasonable low positive bias and pronounced ability to resolve the complex spatiotemporal patterns associated with the input gridded ET products. The study bridges the gap in continuous ET monitoring for sustainable water resources management in CA.

Evaluation of Retrospective National Water Model Soil Moisture and Streamflow for Drought‐Monitoring Applications

AbstractThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s National Water Model (NWM) provides analyses and predictions of hydrologic variables relevant to drought monitoring and forecasts at fine time and space scales (hourly, 0.25–1 km). We present results exploring the potential for NWM soil moisture and streamflow analyses to inform operational drought monitoring. Both agricultural and hydrologic drought monitoring rely either explicitly or implicitly on an accurate representation of anomalous soil moisture values. Much of our analysis focuses on comparisons of soil moisture anomalies in the NWM to those from in‐situ observations. To establish benchmarks for NWM soil moisture skill, we also include other gridded data sets currently used to inform the US Drought Monitor, specifically those from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) land surface models. We then compare NWM streamflow low flows with ∼500 stream gauges from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hydro‐Climatic Data Network of undisturbed basins. The NWM soil moisture simulation’s skill parallels that from NLDAS‐2. The accuracy of drought condition identification from NWM streamflow exceeds that based on soil moisture as determined by Critical Success Index scores for extreme dry percentiles. Different meteorological forcings are used in the operational NWM cycles than those used in this retrospective analysis. This forcing disconnect, together with concerns about current‐generation land surface model soil moisture‐transport schemes, inhibit its current operational use for drought monitoring.

Mapping the seamless hourly surface visibility in China: a real-time retrieval framework using a machine-learning-based stacked ensemble model

Surface visibility (SV), a key indicator of atmospheric transparency, is used widely in the fields of environmental monitoring, transportation, and aviation. However, the sparse distribution and limited number of SV monitoring sites make it difficult to fulfill the urgent need for spatiotemporally seamless fine-scale monitoring. Here, we developed the operational real-time SV retrieval (RT-SVR) framework for China that incorporates information from multiple data sources, including Chinese Land Data Assimilation System meteorological data, in situ observations, and other ancillary data. Seamless hourly SV data with 6.25-km spatial resolution are available in real time via the operational RT-SVR model, which was built using a two-layer stacked ensemble approach that combines multiple machine learning algorithms and a deep learning module. Sample-based cross-validation of the RT-SVR model on approximately 41.3 million data pairs revealed strong robustness and high accuracy, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (R) value of 0.95 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.17 km. An additional hindcast-validation experiment, performed with continuous observations obtained over one year (approximately 20.8 million data pairs), demonstrated the powerful generalization capabilities of the RT-SVR model, albeit with slight degradation in performance (R = 0.85, RMSE = 5.28 km). The seamless hourly SV data with real-time update capability enable tracking of the generation, development, and dissipation of various low-SV events (e.g., fog, haze, and dust storms) in China. The developed framework might also prove useful for quantitative retrieval of aerosol-related parameters (e.g., PM2.5, PM10, and aerosol optical depth).

Drought susceptibility mapping in Iraq using GRACE/GRACE-FO, GLDAS, and machine learning algorithms

Drought susceptibility mapping is crucial for mitigating water scarcity and its cascading effects. This study utilizes machine learning (ML) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to identify drought-prone areas in Iraq. Terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data derived from GRACE observations was utilized, in conjunction with various meteorological and topographical factors (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration, aridity index, normalized difference vegetation index, groundwater storage, root zone moisture, elevation, and slope) sourced from diverse global datasets, primarily those comprising the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). These combined datasets served as input for five machine learning models to identify the drought prone area of Iraq: linear discriminant analysis, classification and regression trees, support vector machine, random forest, and k-nearest neighbor. All models exhibited exceptional performance (>0.9 accuracy, >0.8 kappa values, >0.9 areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve) highlighting the effectiveness of the combined TWSA and multi-factor approach. The analysis identified five drought susceptibility zones across Iraq, ranging from very low to very high. An area of approximately 160,650 km2, primarily concentrated in the northeastern and Mesopotamian plains of central and southern Iraq, was identified as exhibiting high to very high drought susceptibility, highlighting the necessity for targeted mitigation strategies. This study pioneers the use of GRACE-derived TWSA and GLDAS data for drought susceptibility mapping in Iraq, paving the way for data-driven water management interventions.