Land Cover Change Processes Research Articles

Impacts of Deforestation on Soil Quality and Water Resources in Tropical Forest Areas of Sumatra

Deforestation poses a significant threat to the tropical forest regions of Sumatra, impacting soil quality and water resources crucial for ecosystem health and human well-being. This paper synthesizes the multifaceted impacts of deforestation on soil and water in Sumatra and proposes strategies for sustainable land management. Deforestation leads to a decline in soil organic matter, nutrient levels, and microbial diversity, affecting soil fertility and erosion susceptibility. Additionally, the loss of forest cover disrupts the hydrological cycle, altering water availability, quality, and distribution. Increased surface runoff and sedimentation degrade water bodies, threatening aquatic biodiversity and community water supplies. Integrated analysis highlights the interdependencies between land cover change, soil degradation, and hydrological processes, emphasizing the need for holistic management approaches. Reforestation, agroforestry, and community engagement are proposed as essential strategies for mitigating deforestation impacts and promoting ecosystem resilience in Sumatra.

Spatial patterns transformation due to deforestation in the Paraguayan Pantanal Ecoregion from 1987 to 2020

Understanding the effects of land use on landscape configuration as a proxy for ecological connectivity is necessary to envision territorial management and planning and promote natural resource conservation. This study aimed to identify the landscape configurations that resulted from land-cover change processes within the Paraguayan Pantanal Ecoregion (PPE), one of the largest and most biodiverse wetlands, in 1987, 2004, and 2020, with a special emphasis on forest and aquatic vegetation spatial patterns. Forest fragmentation between 1987 and 2020 was determined using landscape ecology metrics. In 1987, natural vegetation was highly connected, with two main forest patches of 12 887 and 15 910 km2. However, in 2004 and 2020, several categories of forest patches were identified, with the largest measuring 9197 and 2461 km2, respectively. Although forest and aquatic vegetation remnants remained viable in 2020, appropriate measures to reduce forest loss should be adopted to ensure the long-term viability of PPE biodiversity.

An Actor-Oriented and Architecture-Driven Approach for Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Modeling

Nowadays, there is an increasing need to rapidly build more realistic models to solve environmental problems in an interdisciplinary context. In particular, agent-based and spatial modeling have proven to be useful for understanding land use and land cover change processes. Both approaches include simulation platforms often used in several research domains to develop models explaining and analyzing complex phenomena. Domain experts generally use an ad hoc approach for model development, which relies on a code-and-fix life cycle, going from a prototype model through progressive refinement. This adaptive approach does not capture systematically actors’ knowledge and their interactions with the environment. The development and maintenance of resulting models become cumbersome and time-consuming. In this article, we propose an actor and architecture-driven approach that relies on relevant existing methods and satisfies the needs of spatially explicit agent-based modeling and implementation. We have designed an Agent Global Experiment framework incorporating a meta-model built from actor, agent architecture, and spatial concepts to produce an initial model from specifications provided by domain experts and system analysts. An engine is built as a tool to support model transformation. Domain knowledge including spatial specifications is summarized in a class diagram which is later transformed into the agent-based model. Finally, the XML file representing the model produced is used as input in the transformation process leading to code. This approach is illustrated on a hunting and population dynamic model to generate a running code for GAMA, an agent-based and spatially explicit simulation platform.

Modelling Global Deforestation Using Spherical Geographic Automata Approach

Deforestation as a land-cover change process is linked to several environmental problems including desertification, biodiversity loss, and ultimately climate change. Understanding the land-cover change process and its relation to human–environment interactions is important for supporting spatial decisions and policy making at the global level. However, current geosimulation model applications mainly focus on characterizing urbanization and agriculture expansion. Existing modelling approaches are also unsuitable for simulating land-cover change processes covering large spatial extents. Thus, the objective of this research is to develop and implement a spherical geographic automata model to simulate deforestation at the global level under different scenarios designed to represent diverse future conditions. Simulation results from the deforestation model indicate the global forest size would decrease by 10.5% under the “business-as-usual” scenario through 2100. The global forest extent would also decline by 15.3% under the accelerated deforestation scenario and 3.7% under the sustainable deforestation scenario by the end of the 21st century. The obtained simulation outputs also revealed the rate of deforestation in protected areas to be considerably lower than the overall forest-cover change rate under all scenarios. The proposed model can be utilized by stakeholders to examine forest conservation programs and support sustainable policy making and implementation.

Geographical Detector-Based Research of Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Oasification and Desertification in Manas River Basin, China

Oasification and desertification are two essential processes of land use and cover (LULC) change in arid regions. Compared to desertification, which is widely regarded as the most severe global ecological issue, the importance of oasification has not received universal recognition. However, neglecting oasification can lead to detrimental outcomes to the effectiveness of ecological governance by affecting the comprehensiveness of environmental policies proposed only based on desertification. Therefore, this study incorporates oasification into the examination of desertification by analyzing land use data for five representative periods spanning from 1980 to 2020, as well as socioeconomic and environmental data from 2000 to 2010. The aim is to evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of oasification and desertification in the Manas River Basin and identify the underlying factors driving these processes. The findings indicated that (1) the general trend of oasification and desertification exhibited the expansion of oases and the retreat of deserts. Specifically, the oasification area showed a “decrease-increase-decrease” pattern over time, while the desertification area consistently decreased. (2) In terms of spatial distribution, oasification and desertification displayed a transition from scattered and disordered patterns to an overall more organized pattern, with the hotspot area of desertification shifting from Shawan County to Manas County over time. (3) Population density, average land GDP, soil type and annual precipitation significantly influenced the degree of oasification, with driving force q-values above 0.4, which were the key factors driving oasification. Population density and average land GDP significantly affected the degree of desertification, with driving force q-values above 0.35, which were the key factors driving desertification. The driving force of all factors increased significantly after the interaction, and socioeconomic factors influenced oasification and desertification more than other factors. The study’s findings aim to provide a scientific basis for land resource use, ecological governance and sustainable development in the Manas River basin.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Aggregation of Land Use Change Processes Considering the Shape of Land Units

The processes of land use and cover change (LUCC) are highly diverse and complex, being heavily influenced by natural factors, economic factors, and other related factors. These changes have a significant impact on ecological environments and landscapes, and serve as a reflection of human activity, limited by natural factors. As a result, LUCC has been widely studied across multiple scientific disciplines. In particular, considerable progress has been made with regard to traditional methods of analyzing land use structures, which focus on the overall differences in the land use structure in each spatiotemporal snapshot. However, these methods have overlooked the continuity in the evolution of each land use unit between different snapshots, impeding the development of a comprehensive model for the spatiotemporal evolution of land use processes. In this work, land use change process (LUCP)—constructed using multiple land use data points from different points in time—was employed as the basis to develop a method to measure the spatiotemporal distance between irregular land patches in evolution sequences based on LUCP. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal distribution model was analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation and measurements of the shortest spatiotemporal distance of LUCP. This work employs land use data for Huainan in China, a typical coal resource city, from 2008 to 2017 for an empirical study. A typical kind of spatiotemporal evolution of LUCP (evolution from farmland to grassland within any two years) is evaluated. Taking into account the shape of land use units, the spatiotemporal distances between irregular evolutionary sequences are measured using buffer-based superposition. The results show that the expected mean nearest neighbor distance for the irregularly evolving sequence of land use units is 0.085 in the completely random CSR model, whereas the mean nearest neighbor distance is 0.037 in the real observation model. These results indicate that such LUCPs have generally shown a spatiotemporal aggregation pattern over the past 10 years. However, since the z-score is 1.03, which is in the range of −1.65 to 1.65, this aggregation pattern is not statistically significant. These experiments demonstrate the validity of using the method proposed herein to study similar problems. The results of this work provide valuable insight into the spatiotemporal evolution process of land use units, which could be instrumental in exploring the potential spatiotemporal model of LUCP evolution.

Land cover change evaluation based on eco-economic balance modeling

Abstract Water supply is one of the important functions provided to humans by the ecosystem. Water supply by the ecosystem leads to sustainable economic development, ecological restoration and food security for human societies. Therefore, the evaluation of the water supply capacity of the ecosystem and the analysis of its spatial distribution features play an important role in the implementation of the plan for the protection and exploitation of water resources. Evaluation of ecological economic balance is of great importance in sustainable ecosystem management. This paper was conducted to develop the ecological economic balance structure based on the water supply and land cover changes. Land use was considered in four time periods from 2000 to 2021 with seven-year intervals to evaluate the process of land cover change and water availability. The results showed that the southern and eastern regions addressed a negative trend in the ecological economic balance. These areas have been affected by population growth and urbanization.

Contexto ambiental dos processos de mudança de uso e cobertura da terra em Calimaya, Altiplano Mexicano

The convergence of conventional agriculture, real estate investments and sand and gravel mining characterize Calimaya as one of the most negatively impacted municipalities of the Mexican altiplano by anthropic activities. The objective of this work was to analyse the geographical and environmental context of land use and land cover change (LULCC) processes in this Municipality. For this, the following indicators were estimated: the cover change rate proposed by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations by using the land cover classes proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. LULCC in the last decade (2010-2019) were: deforestation and advancement of potato crop in the Nevado de Toluca Flora and Fauna Protection Area; decrease in the process of occupation of cropland areas by settlements; and, soil degradation in abandoned mines.

Suburbanization within City Limits in Hungary—A Challenge for Environmental and Social Sustainability

Suburbanization is one of the most prominent processes of post-socialist urban development, leading to the deconcentration of people, capital, as well as productive and non-productive activities within the functional urban area. This phenomenon also has a significant impact on the traditional rural landscape and leads to environmental and social sustainability challenges. Outmigration from the city center to the rural municipalities of the agglomeration ring is already a thoroughly studied topic. However, less attention is given to migration processes not crossing municipal borders. In Hungary, a significant fraction of them is driven by similar motivations as “traditional” suburbanization. Such movements include flows to built-up residential areas that are physically separated from the urban core. Due to their peculiar development path, the inhabited outskirts can also become destinations for within-city migration. This kind of mobility can be considered suburbanization within the city limits. Because of the general lack of data, this phenomenon is seldom researched. However, this study attempts to address this gap. The prevalence of this process in Hungary is explored by analyzing national statistical data sources. Four case studies are selected for detailed examination—Győr, Zalaegerszeg, Kecskemét, and Szeged. GIS methods, field examinations, surveys, and expert interviews are used to get a detailed picture of the demographic and land cover change processes, as well as the distinctions between the destination areas of the case studies. A comparison of the results drawn from the different methods reveals that land use change in the study area is more widespread than what the land cover datasets indicate. The findings indicate that the Corine Land Cover categories describing mixed land use—especially complex cultivation patterns—are not able to capture the drastic function shift caused by intense suburbanization. Different environmental and social sustainability issues are identified depending on the economic status of the outmigrants. This paper also sheds some light on the urban planning considerations of this emerging challenge.

Landsat time series reveal forest loss and woody encroachment in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania

AbstractThe Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) of Tanzania, is globally significant for biodiversity conservation due to the presence of iconic fauna, and, since 1959 has been managed as a unique multiple land‐use areas to mutually benefit wildlife and indigenous residents. Understating vegetation dynamics and ongoing land cover change processes in protected areas is important to protect biodiversity and ensure sustainable development. However, land cover changes in savannahs are especially difficult, as changes are often long‐term and subtle. Here, we demonstrate a Landsat‐based monitoring strategy incorporating (i) regression‐based unmixing for the accurate mapping of the fraction of the different land cover types, and (ii) a combination of linear regression and the BFAST trend break analysis technique for mapping and quantifying land cover changes. Using Google Earth Pro and the EnMap‐Box software, the fractional cover of the main land cover types of the NCA were accurately mapped for the first time, namely bareland, bushland, cropland, forest, grassland, montane heath, shrubland, water and woodland. Our results show that the main changes occurring in the NCA are the degradation of upland forests into bushland: we exemplify this with a case study in the Lerai Forest; and found declines in grassland and co‐incident increases in shrubland in the Serengeti Plains, suggesting woody encroachment. These changes threaten the wellbeing of livestock, the livelihoods of resident pastoralists and of the wildlife dependent on these grazing areas. Some of the land cover changes may be occurring naturally and caused by herbivory, rainfall patterns and vegetation succession, but many are linked to human activity, specifically, management policies, tourism development and the increase in human population and livestock. Our study provides for the first time much needed and highly accurate information on long‐term land cover changes in the NCA that can support the sustainable management and conservation of this unique UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

AbstractThe increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1‐BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate‐vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human‐induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business‐as‐usual (continuously rising) CO2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire‐driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

Land Cover Change Analysis to Assess Sustainability of Development in the Mongolian Plateau over 30 Years

The changes in land cover patterns in the Mongolian Plateau can reveal the regional status of sustainable development. Based on land cover data from 1990–2020, the study reveals the process of land cover change on the Mongolian plateau and integrates those changes with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to further evaluate regional sustainable development status. Result revealed there is a stable rate of land cover change (0.16%) for the Mongolian Plateau, but with diverse shifting trends for various land cover types and SDGs indicators in past 30 years. Croplands (SDG2) showed a growth trend in the last five years, which was different from its initial obviously decreasing trend. The status of water (SDG6) showed a clear decreasing trend, which presents a major threat to this arid-to-semi-arid region. The built area (SDG11) increased continuously, but the long upward trend has slowed in recent years. The forest area (SDG15) declined, but it has recently recovered. Grasslands showed diverse changes in various steppe types (including real, meadow, and desert steppe types) while still experiencing land degradation. The expansion of sand areas presents a hidden risk of increasing sandstorms. Comparative analysis revealed that there have clear differences between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia due to the various government policies. In general, the land use degree in Mongolian Plateau increased annually. This indicated that the climate change and human activities have more and more influences, and it is still facing severe challenges for specific SDGs indicators in the region.

A Critique of the Capital Market Content in Nigerian Real Estate Education

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) is taking on an increasing relevance for the Nigerian estate surveyor and valuer as it grows in capitalization and sophistication. This can be seen in the NSE’s second-largest status in sub-Saharan Africa, the introduction of property securitization and the listing of property companies. Since these changes have implications for the valuer’s professional practice, they necessitate an evaluation of the real estate training curriculum. The capital market content of real estate education in Nigeria is examined in this paper by assessing the knowledge held by recent graduates of estate management. A questionnaire founded on a checklist of pertinent issues which realistically depict a working knowledge of Nigeria’s much improved stock market was used to collect data. This was analyzed by simple descriptive tools to provide a basis for evaluation. The results point to a scanty curriculum. In addition, there is a low awareness of the administrative and economic functions of the NSE. Furthermore, respondents have a poor understanding of core issues in equity investment analysis. Again, there is an inadequate grasp of the relationship between the two investment alternatives, although a majority rightly credit property as a better option. Lastly, respondents mainly do not consider an understanding of the market as relevant to their professional function in a modern economy. The study concludes that the demonstrated knowledge of respondents suggests that the curriculum does not have adequate content on the capital market. It is, therefore, recommended that the capital market content of the estate management course be enriched with more depth and detail which adequately reflect the increasing significance of the market to the valuer’s practice and his true role as an investment adviser in an increasingly financially interconnected world.

Sensitivity Analysis of Suspected External Driving Factors Contributing to Land Use Land Cover Dynamics in Jos Plateau State, Nigeria

Land use land cover change (LULCC) processes are directly or indirectly product of underlying causative factors playing out on the landscape. This study examines the contributing factors responsible for LULCC in Jos Plateau state using two different methods. The Analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and Binary models were used to prepare sixteen (16) suspected external driving factors (EDFs). Euclidean distance analysis was carried out on the proximity EDFs as well as reclassification based on AHP scale 1 – 9 and binary mode as 1 & 0. Saaty’s pairwise comparison matrix was employed to generate the weights for all the EDFs with a consistency index (CI) of 0.17was achieved. Suitability images were generated by multiplying each EDF with the corresponding weight. The fuzzy set membership standardization was carried out on the AHP image through sigmoidal function type with monotonically increasing membership function.The multiple regression technique was used to measure the sensitivity of each driver against the change period (1986 – 2019). The result shows that five (5) EDFs where consistent in both approaches (AHP & Binary). They are: distance to conflict areas, distance to major roads, LULC, distance to settlements and distance to river/ channels. It is therefore, appropriate to examine EDFs to know how each driver is contributing to the changing landscape in the study area. The findings has revealed the main factors driving LULC changes in the study area and has provided a reference frame for assisting in the development of sustainable land management and ecological protection policy making and decisions.

Trends in Lakeshore Zone Development: A Comparison of Polish and Hungarian Lakes over 30-Year Period.

(1) Background: This paper presents the land use and land cover change processes in the lakeshore zone in Poland and Hungary during 30 years. (2) Methods: Land use and land cover (LU/LC) maps were prepared using topographic maps and orthophotograph maps scaled 1:10,000. The study based on GIS data and field research. (3) Results: A significant increase in the area occupied by tourist and recreational infrastructure and forests in the lake shore zone was found in both countries. In Poland, this increase occurred mainly at the expense of arable land, which was a positive phenomenon. In Hungary, however, the main threat to the lakeshore zone was the increase of built-up area at the expense of semi-natural area. While the decrease in arable land was positive from an environmental point of view, the main threat to the Hungarian lake shore zone was the increase in built-up areas at the expense of semi-natural land. The results showed a positive correlation between the area of urbanized land and the area occupied by tourist and recreational buildings on the Polish lakes. There was no such correlation at the Hungarian lakes. (4) Conclusions: The most beneficial change in land cover for the lakes was the increase in forest area in the lake shore zone in both countries studied. Taking into account the results of previous studies, three main trends of changes in land cover and land use in the lakeshore zone were identified. These results shed new light on the problem of land use around lakeshores.

Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2015 and Its Impact on the Ecosystem Services

Land use and land cover change is an important driving force for changes in ecosystem services. We defined several important human-induced land cover change processes such as Ecological Restoration Project, Cropland Expansion, Land Degradation, and Urbanization by the land use/land cover transition matrix method. We studied human-induced land cover changes in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2015 and evaluated its impact on ecosystem service values by the benefit transfer method and elasticity coefficient. The results show that the cumulative area of human-induced land cover change reaches 65.71 million ha from 1980 to 2015, which is close to the total area of the Yellow River Basin. Before 2000, Ecological Restoration Project was the most important human-induced land cover change process. However, due to the large amount of cropland expansion and land degradation, the area of natural vegetation was reduced and the ecosystem value declined. Since 2000, due to the implementation of the “Grain for Green” program, the natural vegetation of upstream area and midstream area of Yellow River Basin has been significantly improved. This implies that under an appropriate policy framework, a small amount of human-induced land cover change can also improve ecosystem services significantly.

Complex multispatio-periodic land use and land cover change processes, and woody resources management in a forest-Savanna Ecotone, Ghana

Vegetation change discourse in tropical Africa is characterized by assumptions of generalised deforestation and degradation. Premised on the concept of the heterogeneity of the tropical African landscape, we make a multispatio-periodic analysis of land use and land cover change (LULCC), and examine its ramifications for woody resources of a forest-Savanna transition, that is characterized by assumed deforestation change discourse. Landsat data for 1985, 2000 and 2016, classified into seven (7) LULC categories were analyzed for change for 1985–2016, 1985–2000 and 2000–2016: for the whole study area, and six (6) smaller localities. In 1985–2016, all woody vegetation categories of the study area experienced reduction: ranging between 60.00% and 23.61%. Reduction in woodland was higher in 1985–2000. Dense woodland cover reduced in, practically, all localities in 1985–2000. The LULCC mechanism was a complex transfer among LULC types, resulting in different emergent LULC types. Hence, change process was not a simple linear deforestation and degradation. Dense woodland that existed at the end of each period was, predominately, regenerated from pre-existing fallow, rather than remnants of ‘virgin’ or pre-existing dense woodland. When pre-existing woody cover was higher, greater amount of woody vegetation regenerates by transformation in a shorter period, whereas limited woody regeneration of woody vegetation on pre-existing fallows dominateswhen there is limited pre-existing woodland, through a long processes of conversion and transformation. Therefore, maintaining higher woody vegetation cover will promote quicker and substantial regeneration of woody vegetation, and availability of woody resources for sustainable wood-based livelihoods, such as charcoal production.

Understanding the Diversity of Urban–Rural Fringe Development in a Fast Urbanizing Region of China

The territories between urban and rural areas, also called urban–rural fringe, commonly present inherent instability and notable heterogeneity. However, investigating the multifaceted urban–rural fringe phenomenon based on large-scale identification has yet to be undertaken. In this study, we adopted a handy clustering-based method by incorporating multidimensional urbanization indicators to understand how the urban–rural fringe development vary across space and shift over time in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China. The results show that (1) the growth magnitude of urban–rural fringe areas was greater than urban areas, whereas their growth rate was remarkably lower. (2) The landscape dynamics of urban–rural fringe varied markedly between fast-developing and slow-developing cities. Peripheral sprawl, inter-urban bridge, and isolated growth were the representative development patterns of urban–rural fringe in this case. (3) Urban–rural fringe development has predominantly occurred where cultivated land is available, and significant inter-provincial differences and tendency shifts have been found in the land cover change processes therein. Our findings indicate that the urban–rural fringe development should be considered as a stage-dependent and place-specific process. This work extends previous knowledge by unraveling the diversity of urban–rural fringe in a fast urbanizing region, and can provide insights into reorienting the spatial planning and land use management within the urban–rural interface.

The State of Migratory Landbirds in the East Asian Flyway: Distributions, Threats, and Conservation Needs

With nearly 400 migratory landbird species, the East Asian Flyway is the most diverse of the world’s flyways. This diversity is a consequence of the varied ecological niches provided by biomes ranging from broadleaf forests to arctic tundra and accentuated by complex biogeographic processes. The distribution and migration ecology of East Asian landbirds is still inadequately known, but a recent explosion in the number of studies tracking the migration of raptors, cuckoos, kingfishers and passerines has greatly increased our knowledge about the stopover and wintering ecology of many species, and the migratory routes that link northeast Eurasia and the Asian tropics. Yet the East Asian Flyway also supports the highest number of threatened species among flyways. Strong declines have been detected in buntings (Emberizidae) and other long-distance migrants. While the conservation of migratory landbirds in this region has largely focused on unsustainable hunting, there are other threats, such as habitat loss and increased agro-chemical use driven directly by land cover change and climate-related processes. Important knowledge gaps to be addressed include (1) threats affecting species in different parts of their annual cycle, (2) range-wide population trends, (3) ecological requirements and habitat use during the non-breeding season, and (4) the conservation status of critical wintering sites (including understudied farming landscapes, such as rice fields) and migration bottlenecks along the flyway.

The Influence of the Calibration Interval on Simulating Non-Stationary Urban Growth Dynamic Using CA-Markov Model

The temporal non-stationarity of land use and cover change (LUCC) processes is one of the main sources of uncertainty that may influence the calibration and the validation of spatial path-dependent LUCC models. In relation to that, this research aims to investigate the influence of the temporal non-stationarity of land change on urban growth modeling accuracy based on an empirical approach that uses past LUCC. Accordingly, the urban development in Rennes Metropolitan (France) was simulated using fifteen past calibration intervals which are set from six training dates. The study used Idrisi’s Cellular Automata-Markov model (CA-Markov) which is an inductive pattern-based LUCC software package. The land demand for the simulation year was estimated using the Markov Chain method. Model validation was carried out by assessing the quantity of change, allocation, and spatial patterns accuracy. The quantity disagreement was analyzed by taking into consideration the temporal non-stationarity of change rate over the calibration and the prediction intervals, the model ability to reproduce the past amount of change in the future, and the time duration of the prediction interval. The results show that the calibration interval significantly influenced the amount and the spatial allocation of the estimated change. In addition to that, the spatial allocation of change using CA-Markov depended highly on the basis land cover image rather than the observed transition during the calibration period. Therefore, this study provides useful insights on the role of the training dates in the simulation of non-stationary LUCC.