Land Cover Change Dynamics Research Articles

Analysis of land use land cover change dynamics in Habru District, Amhara Region, Ethiopia

This study examines spatiotemporal changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) patterns within Habru District, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, between 1985 and 2021. Employing Landsat imagery and a supervised classification approach, we mapped six LULC classes: water body, settlement area, cultivated land, bare land, shrub land, and forest land. Ground control points (GCP) were obtained through field observations to ensured image accuracy. Complementing the remote sensing analysis, focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews were conducted to understand local perspectives on LULC changes. The analysis revealed significant LULC transformations over the study period. Between 1985 and 2021, there was a significant increase in cultivated land and settlement areas, which expanded from 12.27 % to 0.23 %–42.12 % and 2.58 % of the total area, respectively. Conversely, shrub and forest lands saw a marked reduction during the same period, declining from 71.52 % to 12.88 %–45.35 % and 7.06 % of the total area, respectively. Water body area showed a minor increase, while bare land exhibited negligible change. Agricultural land and settlement area expansion, population growth, land tenure insecurity, economic challenge, and climatic change were identified as key drivers of observed LULC changes. Our findings underscore the urgency of implementing multifaceted interventions to address these drivers and promote sustainable resource use practices. Such actions are critical for safeguarding Habru District's natural resources and ensuring the long-term viability of ecosystem services.

Morphometric analysis and LULC change dynamics of Nayar watershed for the sustainable watershed management

The morphometric analysis of the watersheds is essential for the conservation of natural resources, including soil, water, and vegetation. The Morphometric analysis defines the linear, areal and relief aspects of the watershed. It involves the comprehensive analysis of various factors such as drainage network, surface water flow, and other topographical features. The aim of this study is to develop a sustainable watershed management strategy for the Nayar watershed based on morphometry and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change dynamics. The Nayar watershed has a total area of 1956.33 km2. The multispectral satellite imagery, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, and Survey of India (SOI) Toposheets were used for understanding the topographical and morphological characteristics along with the LULC change dynamics. The findings of this research conclude that the Nayar watershed has parallel and dendritic drainage patterns with high relief. According to the LULC change dynamics, the Nayar watershed's area change comprising 57.60 km2 and 57.15 km2, are from Agricultural Land to Wasteland and from Forest Cover to Wasteland, respectively. This shift in the hilly region will increase the risks of landslides and erosion. Furthermore, the change of 110.03 km2 area of Forest Cover to Agricultural Land raises further challenges due to loss of natural vegetation in long run. In summary the change in LULC of Nayar watershed is vulnerable to risk of natural calamities like landslide, erosion. This work would be helpful to many experts and decision-makers for sustainable watershed management and natural resource management.

Temporal dynamics of land use land cover (LULC) changes and assessment of environmental and climatic parameters using remote sensing and GIS: A case study in Limboti Reservoir, Loha Taluka, Maharashtra, India

In this study, multispectral satellite data from Landsat 4-5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS was used to analyse Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change detection and to retrieve environmental parameters. The LULC change detection was done between 2007 and 2021. This study used the supervised classification-maximum likelihood approach in ArcGIS 10.3 software to detect LULC in Loha Taluka, Maharashtra. The taluka was classified into four major LULC classes, viz. water, vegetation, settlement and barren-land. Changes in LULC directly or indirectly will also induce a change in the environmental parameters. Environmental parameters (water surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and total suspended solids) were analysed for Limboti Reservoir. Data were predicted for next two years (2022 and 2023) using multiplicative seasonal decomposition and Holt-Winter’s multiplicative method and trends of each parameter were analysed using Mann-Kendall trend method. For both years, vegetative land was the most extensive LC in Loha Taluka, accounting for more than 60% of the total land area. However, throughout these years, urbanisation was rampant and vegetative land was converted to settlement. In these years, open water resources such as reservoirs, lakes and rivers covered a very small percentage of the total area, which is a serious threat to the ecosystem. As a result, proper water body management is essential; otherwise, these resources will be destroyed and will no longer be able to contribute to the area’s socioeconomic growth. Keywords: Change detection, Chlorophyll content, Land use land cover, Water quality, Water surface temperature

Assessing the impact of land use and land cover change on the Densu Delta wetland using Markov chain modeling and artificial neural networks

This study investigates the dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Densu Delta wetlands, a critical ecosystem in Ghana. Here, satellite images spanning from 1998 to 2023 were used to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of LULC changes and their implications for water bodies, wetlands, vegetations, bare lands and urban areas in the Densu Delta wetland. Employing advanced techniques such as Markov chain modelling and artificial neural networks (ANNs), the research assesses and predicts LULC alterations. Significantly, the largest loss of LULC is observed in the Densu Delta wetland, where wetlands transition to waterbody cover type (14.02 km²). Model validation for 2023 attests to the accuracy of the model, boasting a correctness percentage of 70% and a kappa value of 0.74. In-depth analyses explore regional variations in the Densu Delta wetlands, revealing distinct patterns in the rates of LULC change before and after 2013. Notably, urbanization emerges as a prominent factor post-2013, with urban areas experiencing remarkable rates of change in the wetland. Transition matrices underscore the intricate interplay of different land cover classes over the years. Simulated LULC predictions for 2033 and 2043 highlight the urban land cover type as having the highest positive change, recording approximately 0.39% for the Densu Delta wetland. The wetland land cover in the Densu Delta wetland exhibit negative changes of about −0.52%. The synthesis of LULC data enhances our understanding of the complex interactions shaping these critical ecosystems. This research offers valuable insights for sustainable environmental conservation, emphasizing the pivotal role of informed urban planning policies. It also unveils potential challenges posed by climate change, advocating for a holistic approach to preserve these vital wetland ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use land cover change and its drivers in the western part of Lake Abaya, Ethiopia.

Understanding the dynamics of land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes and what drives these changes is essential for creating effective strategies for sustainable land management. It also helps to monitor the impact on ecosystems and biodiversity, which is crucial for policy-making. This study focused on assessing the trends, rates, and extent of LU/LC change and its causes in the western part of Lake Abaya in Ethiopia. To achieve this, we used a supervised classification method with a maximum-likelihood algorithm to map different land use land cover types. Additionally, we gathered information through field observations, focus group discussions (FGDs), and key informant interviews (KIIs) to identify the factors driving LU/LC change and its consequences between 1990 and 2022. The study findings revealed that vegetation and wetlands significantly decreased over this period, while water bodies, agricultural land, and settlements expanded at the expense of other land uses. The average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values decreased from 0.368 in 1990 to 0.135 in 2022, indicating declining vegetation health. Local communities point to several factors responsible for these changes, including the expansion of agricultural land, increased settlement, firewood collection, and charcoal production (as proximate/immediate drivers), as well as population growth, poverty, unemployment, climate change, and policy-related issues (as underlying causes). Thus, it needs the development and implementation of an integrated and sustainable land management system, and strong land use and restoration policies in order to halt or reduce the rapid expansion of agricultural land and settlement areas at the expense of vegetation and wetlands.

Evolution of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Panjim, Goa: A Comparative Analysis from 1990 to 2024

This research paper investigates the dynamics of land use and land cover (LU/LC) change in Panjim, Goa, India, from 1990 to 2024. Using satellite Data and GIS techniques, the study analyzes the spatial and temporal transformations of land cover categories, including forest, agriculture, urban areas, and water bodies. The primary objective is to understand the drivers of LU/LC change and assess their implications for sustainable urban development and environmental conservation. The findings reveal significant urban expansion, encroachment on agricultural lands, and reduction in forest cover. The study highlights the need for effective land use planning and management strategies to mitigate negative environmental impacts and ensure the city's long-term sustainability. Keywords: Land Use, Land Cover, Supervised Classification, Change Detection, Accuracy Assessment

Dynamics of land use and land cover change in the distal Okavango Delta, Botswana

ABSTRACT Population increase and socio-economic progress exert pressure on land use and land cover (LULC) in any geophysical environment. If not minimized, the pressure has the potential to unfold as unplanned and uncontrolled alterations in LULC. Remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) prove to be powerful tools for obtaining accurate and real-time information on the spatial distribution of land use and land cover change (LULCC) both spatially and temporally over a wide area. This research paper uses remotely sensed spatial data and a literature review to examine the extent of LULCC over three decades in the distal Okavango Delta with specific attention on Maun, Botswana. The study assesses changes in population growth, built-up areas, road/pavements, water fluctuations, hydrophytes and shrubs/trees dynamics from April 1990 to April 2020. Findings reveal that while the population of Maun increased from 26,768 to 85,293 between 1990–2020 built-up areas increased from 0.68 km2 to 9.61 km2 and shrubs/trees decreased from 13.53 km2 to 7.06 km2, respectively, within the same period. Grasslands increased from 8.57 km2 in 1990 to 13.44 km2 by 2020. The paper thus recommends the establishment of a two-kilometre-wide green belt around the settlement to stem any progressive encroachment into agricultural reserved land.

Assessing the dynamics of land use and land cover change in semi‐arid savannah: A focus on woody plant encroachment utilising historical satellite data

AbstractThe encroachment of woody plants into grassland and the conversion of grasslands to woodlands is a worldwide phenomenon and has been regarded as a major global problem for decades. The rate of woody plant encroachment (WPE) varies across biomes and can be influenced by land use activities and climate conditions. As a result, the current study assessed the spatial distribution of woody plants and land use and land cover (LULC) change within the Letaba River catchment in the Limpopo province of South Africa's subtropical region. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) satellite data sets were used to map and quantify WPE and other LULC changes in the Letaba River catchment over a 30‐year period (1989–2019). Random forest classifier was used to determine of the rate of change of WPE and LULC within the study area. The results indicated that the Letaba River catchment has undergone a significant change with an increase in woody plant species. The woody plant cover had increased from 36,014 ha in the year 1989 to approximately 561,493 ha by 2019. Meanwhile, grassland has declined by 486,322 ha (33.7%) from 1989 to 2019. The overall classification accuracy (OA) ranged between 91.7% and 95.5%. The study findings will provide critical insights and baseline information about the state of WPE in semi‐arid environments, as well as provide catchment managers with the information they need to take the necessary actions to manage the rapid increase in woody plants. However, fire and herbivory are important factors that influences the WPE, and this might have also played an important role in the findings. The study suggests that WPE is an ongoing process and management strategies are required to mitigate and maintain the intensity of woody plants.

Dynamics of land use and land cover changes in Amibara and Awash-fentale districts, Ethiopia

The analysis of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes is crucial for rural development planning, food security monitoring, and natural resource conservation. This study focuses on detecting LULC changes in Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts from 1985 to 2021. We utilized five sets of Landsat data (Landsat 5 TM for 1985, 1995, 2002, and Landsat 8 OLI for 2015 & 2020) and applied supervised maximum likelihood classification. Accuracy assessments revealed overall accuracies ranging from 88.9% to 95.3% for Amibara and 89.5%–93.2% for Awash-Fentale. Both districts exhibited six main LULC classes: agriculture, bareland, built-up, mixed forest, shrubland, and water bodies. In Amibara LULC changes from 1985 to 2021 revealed significant shifts, maintaining its primary bareland characteristic, concentrated agriculture, and expanding Prosopis-dominated shrubland due to livestock-mediated seed dispersal. Conversely, in Awash-Fentale bareland dominance decreased from 92.28% to 67.02%, while agriculture, built-up areas, and shrubland expanded. Water bodies emerged between 2015 and 2021 which is associated with the construction of Kesem Kebena dam for sugar cane farm production. The net gains were observed in shrubland (12.9%), agriculture (5.8%), mixed forest (4.1%), water bodies (1.5%), and built-up areas (0.9%), with bareland experiencing a loss of 25.3%. In conclusion, Amibara and Awash-Fentale underwent both comparable and distinct LULC shifts, featuring prevalent bareland and central agriculture, alongside Prosopis-driven shrubland expansion due to livestock dispersal. While mixed forest exhibited fluctuations, built-up areas and water bodies remained limited. Notably, Awash-Fentale showed higher LULC variability. Understanding these land cover changes helps assess vulnerability to climate impacts like droughts and floods, enhancing climate resilience. Insights from this study can inform sustainable land-use planning, conservation strategies, and policy interventions in the Afar region and similar areas. These observations highlight the need for integrated land management approaches that balance socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Ebo Forest Reserve, Littoral Region of Cameroon

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Ebo Forest Reserve, Littoral Region of Cameroon

Analysis of land cover change in Magelang Regency And Magelang City over 15 years

Background: Land cover change is an ongoing phenomenon with significant impacts on the environment and human quality of life. An analysis of land cover change was conducted in the Magelang area, which includes both Magelang Regency and Magelang City, over a period of fifteen years from 2007 to 2023. This study aims to analyze these changes using spatial methods based on land cover maps from 2007 and 2023. Method: In this analysis, land cover was classified into five categories: settlements, dry fields, paddy fields, forests, and plantations, and then compared between the two years. Result: The analysis results demonstrate a significant increase in the area of settlements and dry fields, reflecting urban and rural development. On the other hand, there has been a decrease in the area of paddy fields and forests, which may be related to land conversion for industrial or infrastructure purposes. The change in the area of plantations was not significant, indicating continuity in the management of these lands. Conclusion: The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of land cover change in the region and can serve as a basis for further actions to maintain a balance between development and environmental conservation. Novelty/Originality of this study: This study presents the first longitudinal spatial analysis of land cover changes over 15 years (2007–2023), revealing significant trends in urban and rural land use dynamics. This study provides a scientific basis for sustainable spatial planning by highlighting the urgency to balance development infrastructure with preserving farmland and forests.

Sustainable Urban Planning Challenges in the Peri-Urban Landscape: Evaluating LULC Dynamics and the Policy Effectiveness of the Chattogram Metropolitan Region, Bangladesh

Understanding the dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) change in today’s context of rapid urbanization is critical for sustainable urban planning and environmental conservation. Therefore, the research aim is to understand the LULC changes in the Chattogram Metropolitan Area and to assess the policy implications of these changes for sustainable urban development. Through a comparative analysis of LULC maps for two periods (1997–2007; 2007–2017), we investigated the transformation of a detailed planning zone before and after Detailed Area Plan (DAP) approval. Using quantitative data analysis and policy review, we elucidated the impacts of urbanization trends on local ecosystems—specifically the conversion of forest cover and waterscape use. The findings reveal a significant conversion of forested and waterscape areas to urban and peri-urban landscapes, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable planning interventions that focus on these peri-urban areas. The study further critiques the DAP’s effectiveness, revealing a disconnect between regional policy implementation and local outcomes. This research proposes a validated, scalable framework for urban master plans that adapts to the complex socioecological contexts of rapidly urbanizing regions.

Analysis of Urban Form Dynamics in The Suburbs of Surakarta City 2013-2023

Urban Form has become necessary for city planning management to see the sustainability of a city. A better understanding of different urban forms is imperative to facilitate the evolution of cities towards a more sustainable urban development trajectory in the future. The study aims to analyze the dynamics of urban form and the changes in land cover within the peri-urban area of Surakarta City, which is directly influenced by the development of Surakarta City. The analysis was conducted from a landscape ecology perspective, employing a spatial metrics approach at the landscape level to assess the dynamics of urban form using quantitative descriptive, including a spatial approach. A similar approach was adopted at the class level in order to examine the dynamics of land cover changes. The results of the image analysis were validated using the Kappa index, yielding an image accuracy level of 0.86 (86%). The results of this study show that the urban form in the peri-urban area of Surakarta City tends to move towards a compact urban form. Meanwhile, each land cover, vegetation, and water body become increasingly fragmented, with areas becoming narrower as time passes. Built-up and agricultural land are becoming more compact and concentrated along with development. In conclusion, the dynamics of urban form in the peri-urban area of Surakarta City tends to lead to compact urban form.

Spatio-temporal analysis land use land cover changes in South Kashmir region of North-western Himalayas using Landsat data

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of land use and land cover changes in South Kashmir from 2000 to 2022 leveraging remote sensing technologies revealing significant transformations in various land cover classes. The study used maximum likelihood classification, a supervised classification method, to analyze Landsat satellite imagery and identify ten major land use categories. The findings demonstrate notable increases in, barren land by 18.78 km2 (0.35%), built-up areas by 72.28 km2 (1.33%), forests by 274.76 km2 (5.05%), grasslands by 68.06 km2 (1.25%), scrubland by 307.82 km2 (5.66%). horticulture experienced a significant rise of 419.17 km2 (7.70%), Conversely, several land use classes reported decline, agriculture by 757.21 km2 (13.91%), exposed rockmass by 258.58 km2 (4.75%), glaciers and snow by 136.83 km2 (2.51%), and water bodies contracted by 8.23 km2 (0.15%). The primary drivers of land use change in the region are identified as climate change, population growth, and economic factors. Climate change has altered precipitation patterns affecting agricultural productivity and leading to the retreat of glaciers. Population growth and economic reasons, including the rise of horticulture and changes in land use policies, have also played a significant role in shaping the landscape dynamics of South Kashmir. These changes underscore the dynamic nature of land use in South Kashmir, with significant implications for regional planning and environmental management. The study underscores the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of geospatial technologies in conducting spatiotemporal analyses and formulating evidence-based policies for the sustainable management of natural resources.

Predicting land use and land cover change dynamics in the eThekwini Municipality: a machine learning approach with Landsat imagery

ABSTRACT Monitoring and providing accurate land use and land cover (LULC) change information is vital for sustainable environmental planning. This study used Landsat imagery from 2002 to 2022 to create updated LULC change maps for the eThekwini Municipality. Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were used to conduct these LULC classifications, with XGBoost achieving the highest accuracy (80.57%). The generated maps revealed a significant decrease in cropland and an increase in impervious surfaces. As such, this research established a framework for continuous LULC mapping and highlighted Landsat 9’s potential in LULC classifications.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change around Volcanoes National Park and their implications for biodiversity conservation

ABSTRACT This study comprehensively analyses spatiotemporal land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics within a 10-km buffer zone surrounding Volcanoes National Park (VNP), Rwanda, from 2000 to 2019, integrating biophysical and socio-economic drivers. It aims to quantify LULC change extent, rate, and type around VNP and inside the park; identify socio-economic, demographic, and policy drivers of LULC change; and evaluate the impact of LULC changes on VNP’s biodiversity via habitat fragmentation, connectivity, and species diversity. Employing remote sensing, spatial modelling, and field data, we reveal profound transformations within the park’s periphery. Forests and woodlots have significantly declined, replaced by agriculture, grasslands, and built-up areas, particularly in the 5.1–10 km belt (92.29% forest loss). While reforestation efforts exist, they are outpaced by deforestation, creating a stark deforestation-to-reforestation ratio of 12:1 in the 5.1 10 km belt and 6:1 in the 0–5 km belt. This alarming trend threatens VNP’s biodiversity as resource dependent communities continue to extract firewood, construction materials, and beanpoles from the park. To mitigate these impacts, we propose integrated strategies encompassing strengthened law enforcement, sustainable land management practices, community-based conservation initiatives, and alternative livelihood development.

Urban land use, land cover change and urban microclimate dynamics in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Land surface temperature (LST) increases and urban heat island (UHI) variability are the major urban climatology problems arising in urban development. This study attempts to assess the effects of urban land use and land cover change on microclimate dynamics in Addis Ababa city. Three different sets of remotely sensed data from Landsat 5 TM (1990), Landsat 7 ETM+ (2005) and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS (2021) were used for the study. LSTs were retrieved from Landsat5 TM and Landsat7 ETM+ using a mono window,and the thermal infrared band (TR-10) of Landsat–8 was used to retrieve LST. Regression and correlation analyses of the LST, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) were performed in SPSS V23. The study also examined the different residential urban morphology types (UMTs) of the LST and NDVI. The selected built-up blocks of UMTs included apartments, villas and mud houses. These UMTs are extracted by digitizing them from the Google Earth explorer. The results from this study showed that the proportion of urban green space (UGS) to other LULC types decreased from 120.4 km2 in 1990 to 76.26 km2 in 2021. However, the built-up area increased at a rate of 216.5 km2 (39.03%) from 1990 to 2021. The rapid expansion of built-up land in the study area was the main factor influencing the increase in LST. The residential UMTs exhibited significant differences in mean LSTs and NDVIs. The results indicate that UMT inhibited by Villia had the highest mean NDVI value and that the highest mean LST was observed in Apartment. The results of multiple linear regression analysis clearly indicate that built-up and green vegetation contributed 92.2% of the LST variations with R2 = 0.92 and VIF ≤ 10 in Addis Ababa city. The results of the study indicate that strengthening public participation in urban greening and optimizing the NDVI and NDBI are important strategies for mitigating the effects of microclimate change and that sustaining urban development and providing better quality of life for the urban population are important.

Understanding Dynamics of Land Cover Changes Using GIS Technique in a River Catchment with High Altitude Differences – an Analysis from Kosovo

This article analyses Land Cover Changes in the Lumbardhi of Prizreni (LP) River catchment in southern Kosovo. As a landlocked country, Kosovo has highly diverse landform features. LP River catchment is located in Sharri's transboundary high mountain range and the southern part of Dukagjini Plain. In the last two decades, the landscape has experienced a transformation in land cover changes, especially in the increasing of artificial surfaces in the plains. Using GIS techniques, data were calculated for the selected years, and their dynamics were visualised for the last two decades. The analysis shows a decrease in agricultural land and complex cultivation patterns (-806 ha), an increase in artificial surface, especially discontinuous urban fabric (+354 ha), and small changes in forest and seminatural areas, which are primarily included in "Sharri" National Park.

The interplay of future solar energy, land cover change, and their projected impacts on natural lands and croplands in the US

Projections for deep decarbonization require large amounts of solar energy, which may compete with other land uses such as agriculture, urbanization, and conservation of natural lands. Existing capacity expansion models do not integrate land use land cover change (LULC) dynamics into projections. We explored the interaction between projected LULC, solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment, and solar impacts on natural lands and croplands by integrating projections of LULC with a model that can project future deployment of solar PV with high spatial resolution for the conterminous United States. We used scenarios of LULC projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios from 2010 to 2050 and two electricity grid scenarios to model future PV deployment and compared those results against a baseline that held 2010 land cover constant through 2050. Though solar PV's overall technical potential was minimally impacted by LULC scenarios, deployed PV varied by −16.5 to 11.6 % in 2050 from the baseline scenario. Total land requirements for projected PV were similar to other studies, but measures of PV impacts on natural systems depended on the underlying land change dynamics occurring in a scenario. The solar PV deployed through 2050 resulted in 1.1 %–2.4 % of croplands and 0.3 %–0.7 % of natural lands being converted to PV. However, the deepest understanding of PV impacts and interactions with land cover emerged when the complete net gains and losses from all land cover change dynamics, including PV, were integrated. For example, one of the four LULC projections allows for high solar development and a net gain in natural lands, even though PV drives a larger percentage of natural land conversion. This paper shows that integrating land cover change dynamics with energy expansion models generates new insights into trade offs between decarbonization, impacts of renewables, and ongoing land cover change.

Synergistic impact of climate and land use land cover change dynamics on the hydrological regime of Loktak Lake catchment under CMIP6 scenarios

Study region: Loktak Lake catchment, north-eastern Himalayan ranges, IndiaStudy focus: Assessing the potential synergistic impact of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change on water resources is crucial for watershed management especially in the data-scarce vulnerable wetlands. Using the SWAT hydrological model, the current study seeks to quantify the combined impacts of LULC and climate change on the water balance parameters of the Loktak Lake catchment. This study simulates the hydrological regime of the Loktak Lake catchment based on future climate and changes to LULC dynamics using four GCM models in combination with SWAT models under two alternative scenarios.New hydrological insights for the region: The findings showed that under the SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios, the annual mean temperature is anticipated to increase by a maximum of 1.7°C and 3.74°C, respectively, by the 2050 s and 2090 s, while the annual precipitation similarly shown a rising trend for both the scenarios for the mid and far future. The mean annual streamflow is projected to increase by 48.84 cumecs (31.65 %) and 57 cumecs (36.89 %) by the 2050 s and 2090 s decades, respectively, while the water yield will rise by 200.65 mm (30.25 %) and 216.1 mm (32.57 %) in comparable decades. The outcomes of this study might provide a scientific foundation for ecological protection as well as water resource management and development in response to the potential future risk due to climate change in the Loktak Lake catchment.