Land Carbon Storage Research Articles

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1

In order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate, we “precalibrate” the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1 by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model. We develop ~1,000 parameter sets which reproduce the main features of modern climate, but not precise observations. This allows a wide range of large-scale feedback response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour. We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity and quantify the contributions of atmospheric (±0.93°C, 1σ) vegetation (±0.32°C), ocean (±0.24°C) and sea–ice (±0.14°C) parameterisations to the total uncertainty. We then perform an LGM-constrained Bayesian calibration, incorporating data-driven priors and formally accounting for structural error. We estimate climate sensitivity as likely (66% confidence) to lie in the range 2.6–4.4°C, with a peak probability at 3.6°C. We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in the range 5.3–7.5°C, with a peak probability at 6.2°C. In addition to estimates of global temperature change, we apply our ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO2 probability distributions for land carbon storage, Atlantic overturning and sea–ice coverage. Notably, under 2xCO2 we calculate a probability of 37% that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values, so the land sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO2.

The economics of using forests to increase carbon storage

Changes in forest-management practices have the potential to increase forest land carbon storage, which would help to reduce CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere linked to climate change and contribute to Kyoto Protocol targets for signatory countries. However, successfully increasing carbon storage while maintaining economic profitability is challenging because of the long planning horizons required for many forest activities and slow carbon sequestration rates in northern forests. The literature on the economics of forest management for carbon storage is unfortunately sparse and, in many instances, confused and misleading. Three carbon valuation equations are widely used that give contradictory results, with two of them (flow summation and average storage) ignoring the time-value carbon benefits and other essential data. Only the discounted carbon equation gives reasonably interpretable economic results. As well, many studies have omitted essential economic gradients that result in structurally questionable results. I review the literature, highlighting deficiencies in equations and how analyses are structured with the intent to produce a reasonable method of interpreting previous work and advice for future studies.

Natural Variability in a Stable, 1000-Yr Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Simulation

Abstract A new 3D global coupled carbon–climate model is presented in the framework of the Community Climate System Model (CSM-1.4). The biogeochemical module includes explicit land water–carbon coupling, dynamic carbon allocation to leaf, root, and wood, prognostic leaf phenology, multiple soil and detrital carbon pools, oceanic iron limitation, a full ocean iron cycle, and 3D atmospheric CO2 transport. A sequential spinup strategy is utilized to minimize the coupling shock and drifts in land and ocean carbon inventories. A stable, 1000-yr control simulation [global annual mean surface temperature ±0.10 K and atmospheric CO2 ± 1.2 ppm (1σ)] is presented with no flux adjustment in either physics or biogeochemistry. The control simulation compares reasonably well against observations for key annual mean and seasonal carbon cycle metrics; regional biases in coupled model physics, however, propagate clearly into biogeochemical error patterns. Simulated interannual-to-centennial variability in atmospheric CO2 is dominated by terrestrial carbon flux variability, ±0.69 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global net annual mean), which in turn reflects primarily regional changes in net primary production modulated by moisture stress. Power spectra of global CO2 fluxes are white on time scales beyond a few years, and thus most of the variance is concentrated at high frequencies (time scale <4 yr). Model variability in air–sea CO2 fluxes, ±0.10 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global annual mean), is generated by variability in sea surface temperature, wind speed, export production, and mixing/upwelling. At low frequencies (time scale >20 yr), global net ocean CO2 flux is strongly anticorrelated (0.7–0.95) with the net CO2 flux from land; the ocean tends to damp (20%–25%) slow variations in atmospheric CO2 generated by the terrestrial biosphere. The intrinsic, unforced natural variability in land and ocean carbon storage is the “noise” that complicates the detection and mechanistic attribution of contemporary anthropogenic carbon sinks.

Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO2 in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

It is investigated how abrupt changes in the North Atlantic (NA) thermohaline circulation (THC) affect the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is forced with climate perturbations from glacial freshwater experiments with the ECBILT-CLIO ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model. A reorganisation of the marine carbon cycle is not addressed. Modelled NA THC collapses and recovers after about a millennium in response to prescribed freshwater forcing. The initial cooling of several Kelvin over Eurasia causes a reduction of extant boreal and temperate forests and a decrease in carbon storage in high northern latitudes, whereas improved growing conditions and slower soil decomposition rates lead to enhanced storage in mid-latitudes. The magnitude and evolution of global terrestrial carbon storage in response to abrupt THC changes depends sensitively on the initial climate conditions. These were varied using results from time slice simulations with the Hadley Centre model HadSM3 for different periods over the past 21 kyr. Changes in terrestrial storage vary between −67 and +50 PgC for the range of experiments with different initial conditions. Simulated peak-to-peak differences in atmospheric CO2 are 6 and 13 ppmv for glacial and late Holocene conditions. Simulated changes in δ13C are between 0.15 and 0.25‰. These simulated carbon storage anomalies during a NA THC collapse depend on their magnitude on the CO2 fertilisation feedback mechanism. The CO2 changes simulated for glacial conditions are compatible with available evidence from marine studies and the ice core CO2 record. The latter shows multi-millennial CO2 variations of up to 20 ppmv broadly in parallel with the Antarctic warm events A1 to A4 in the South and cooling in the North.

Response of the ocean, climate and terrestrial carbon cycle to Holocene freshwater discharge after 8 kyr BP

The “green” McGill Paleoclimate Model is run from 8 to 0 kyr BP under variable insolation (Milankovitch forcing), Taylor Dome CO2 (radiative forcing) and four prescribed meltwater scenarios (freshwater forcing) due to the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). For each scenario, we constrain the total volume of meltwater to be 1.62 × 1015 m3 (sea level‐equivalent of 4.62 m), which is obtained from the work of Paterson (1972) and the reconstructed sea level increase between 8 and 6 kyr BP. During each freshwater perturbation, the simulated maximum Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) intensity is reduced, by amounts of up to 8 Sv. During the time of a weakened MOC, the sea surface temperature is reduced in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and increased in the Southern Ocean. Our model results indicate that the freshwater impact on the Holocene climate and terrestrial carbon cycle is likely negligible after the 8.2‐kyr cold event. Only a large freshwater perturbation (>0.1 Sv) has a significant impact on the Holocene climate and terrestrial carbon cycle; it results in an enhanced cooling of about 1°C in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and notable drops in the global net primary productivity (2 PgC/yr) and total land carbon storage (40 PgC).

Combining lidar estimates of aboveground biomass and Landsat estimates of stand age for spatially extensive validation of modeled forest productivity

Extensive estimates of forest productivity are required to understand the relationships between shifting land use, changing climate and carbon storage and fluxes. Aboveground net primary production of wood (NPP Aw) is a major component of total NPP and of net ecosystem production (NEP). Remote sensing of NPP and NPP Aw is generally based on light use efficiency or process-based biogeochemistry models. However, validating these large area flux estimates remains a major challenge. In this study we develop an independent approach to estimating NPP Aw, based on stand age and biomass, that could be implemented over a large area and used in validation efforts. Stand age is first mapped by iterative unsupervised classification of a multi-temporal sequence of images from a passive optical sensor (e.g. Landsat TM). Stand age is then cross-tabulated with estimates of stand height and aboveground biomass from lidar remote sensing. NPP Aw is then calculated as the average increment in lidar-estimated biomass over the time period determined using change detection. In western Oregon, productivity estimates made using this method compared well with forest inventory estimates and were significantly different than estimates from a spatially distributed biogeochemistry model. The generality of the relationship between lidar-based canopy characteristics and stand biomass means that this approach could potentially be widely applicable to landscapes with stand replacing disturbance regimes, notably in regions where forest inventories are not routinely maintained.

Global terrestrial carbon storage and uncertainties in its temperature sensitivity examined with a simple model

AbstractThe future of the land carbon sink is a significant uncertainty in global change projections. Here, key controls on global terrestrial carbon storage are examined using a simple model of vegetation and soil. Equilibrium solutions are derived as a function of atmospheric CO2 and global temperature, these environmental variables are then linked in an idealized global change trajectory, and the lag between the dynamic and equilibrium solutions is derived for different linear rates of increase in atmospheric CO2. Terrestrial carbon storage is departing significantly from equilibrium because CO2 and temperature are increasing on a similar timescale to ecosystem change, and the lag is found to be proportional to the rate of forcing. Thus peak sizes of the land carbon sink, and any future land carbon source, are proportional to the rate of increase of CO2. A switch from a land carbon sink to a source occurs at a higher CO2 and temperature under more rapid forcing. The effects of parameter uncertainty in temperature sensitivities of photosynthesis, plant respiration and soil respiration, and structural uncertainty through the effect of fixing the ratio of plant respiration to photosynthesis are explored. In each case, the CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis is constrained to reproduce the 1990 atmospheric CO2 concentration within a closed global model. New literature compilations are presented for the temperature sensitivities of plant and soil respiration. A lower limit, Q10=1.29, for soil respiration significantly increases future land carbon storage. An upper limit, Q10=3.63, for soil respiration underpredicts the increase in carbon storage since the Last Glacial Maximum. Fixing the ratio of plant respiration to photosynthesis (R/P) at 0.5 generates the largest and most persistent land carbon sink, followed by the weakest land carbon source.

Carbon dynamics and land-use choices: building a regional-scale multidisciplinary model

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over 50 years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over fifty years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

A preliminary estimate of changing calcrete carbon storage on land since the Last Glacial Maximum

The glacial-to-interglacial shift in land carbon storage is important in understanding the global carbon cycle and history of the climate system. While organic carbon storage on land appears to have been much less than present during the cold, dry glacial maximum, calcrete (soil carbonate) carbon storage would have been greater. Here we attempt a global estimation of this change; we use published figures for present soil carbonate by biome to estimate changing global soil carbonate storage, on the basis of reconstruction of vegetation areas for four timeslices since the Last Glacial Maximum. It appears that there would most likely have been around a 30–45% decrease in calcrete carbon on land accompanying the transition between glacial and interglacial conditions. This represents a change of about 500–400 GtC (outer error limits are estimated at 750–200 GtC) . In order to be weathered into dissolved bicarbonate, this would take up an additional 500–400 GtC (750–200 GtC) in CO 2 from ocean/atmosphere sources. An equivalent amount to the carbonate leaving the caliche reservoir on land may have accumulated in coral reefs and other calcareous marine sediments during the Holocene, liberating an equimolar quantity of CO 2 back into the ocean-atmosphere system as the bicarbonate ion breaks up.

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: I. Detailed estimates for Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, and Bolivia

Our group, composed of modelers working in conjunction with tropical ecologists, 3 has produced a simulation model that quantifies the net carbon exchange between tropical vegetation and the atmosphere due to land use change. The model calculates this net exchange by combining estimates of land use change with several estimates of the carbon stored in tropical vegetation and general assumptions about the fate of cleared vegetation. In this report, we use estimates of land use and carbon storage organized into sixlife zone (sensu Holdridge) categories to calculate the exchange between the atmosphere and the vegetation of four tropical countries. Our analyses of these countries indicate that this life zone approach has several advantages because (a) the carbon content of vegetation varies significantly among life zones, (b) much of the land use change occurs in life zones of only moderate carbon storage, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation varies among life zones. Our analyses also emphasize the importance of distinguishing between temporary and permanent land use change, as the recovery of vegetation on abandoned areas decreases the net release of carbon due to clearing. We include sensitivity analysis of those factors that we found to be important but are difficult to quantify at present.