Lake Merzbacher Research Articles

Monitoring Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) of Lake Merzbacher Using Dense Chinese High-Resolution Satellite Images

Establishing an effective real-time monitoring and early warning system for glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) requires a full understanding of their occurrence mechanism. However, the harsh conditions and hard-to-reach locations of these glacial lakes limit detailed fieldwork, making satellite imagery a critical tool for monitoring. Lake Mercbacher, an ice-dammed lake in the central Tian Shan mountain range, poses a significant threat downstream due to its relatively high frequency of outbursts. In this study, we first monitored the daily changes in the lake area before the 2022 Lake Mercbacher outburst. Additionally, based on historical satellite images from 2014 to 2021, we calculated the maximum lake area (MLA) and its changes before the outburst. Furthermore, we extracted the proportion of floating ice and water area during the period. The results show that the lake area of Lake Mercbacher would first increase at a relatively low speed (0.01 km2/day) for about one month, followed by a relatively high-speed increase (0.04 km2/day) until reaching the maximum, which would last for about twenty days. Then, the lake area would decrease slowly until the outburst, which would last five days and is significant for early warning. Moreover, the floating ice and water proportion provides more information about the outburst signals. In 2022, we found that the floating ice area increased rapidly during the early warning stage, especially one day before the outburst, accounting for about 50% of the total lake area. Historical evidence indicates that the MLA shows a decreasing trend, and combining it with the outburst date and climate data, we found that the outburst date shows an obvious advance trend (6 days per decade) since 1902, caused by climate warming. Earlier melting results in an earlier outburst. This study provides essential references for monitoring Lake Mercbacher GLOFs and building an effective early warning system.

An insight into the surface velocity of Inylchek Glacier and its effect on Lake Merzbacher during 2006–2016 with Landsat time-series imagery

Mountain glacier is one of the extremely sensitive indicators for climate change, and its surface motion distribution and corresponding variation are valuable information for understanding ice mass exchange and glacier dynamics. This paper presents the long-term ice velocity distributions of Inylchek Glacier in the Tianshan region by pixel-tracking algorithm with time-series Landsat imagery acquired during 2006–2016. Then the monitored ice motion fields of Inylchek Glacier were carefully analyzed and revealed a generally similar spatial distribution characteristic. Most of the ice of the North Inylchek Glacier remains in a stagnant state except for the upstream part, but a relatively high velocity of 20–40 cm/day with an RMSE of 3 cm/day was observed on most part of the South Inylchek Glacier, except for the slow-moving glacier terminus. We also state the glacier dynamics around Lake Merzbacher and their possible effect on its glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk. Besides, the surface velocity distribution on South Inylchek Glacier surface during the ablation period from 2014 to 2016 was also established and also compared with annual velocity. The corresponding difference yields that there is a positive relation between ice motion and temperature variation. Therefore, the time-series ice surface motion yielded by the Landsat imagery thus could provide us an efficient and low-cost way to analyze the current state and changes in glaciers, thanks to the continuous and regular spaceborne observations provided by the Landsat satellites.

Deriving a time series of 3D glacier motion to investigate interactions of a large mountain glacial system with its glacial lake: Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar Pixel Offset-Small Baseline Subset technique

We investigated the interactions of Lake Merzbacher with the Southern Inylchek Glacier (Central Tien Shan) using the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Pixel Offset-Small Baseline Subset (PO-SBAS) to derive a time series of three-dimensional (3D) glacier motion. The measurements of 3D glacier velocity were ∼17% more precise than a previous study that did not use the SBAS estimation. The velocities of the glacier were up to 58 cm/day east, 70 cm/day north, and 113 cm/day vertically. Combining these data with Landsat images indicated that movement of the glacier is sensitive to changes of Lake Merzbacher. Specifically, the entry of more lake water into the glacier during the ablation season increased englacial ablation due to thermal erosion. Moreover, ice calving begins when the lake water gradually lifts the ice dam. Calving can cause greater loss of glacier mass than normal ablation. Trying to replenish the front mass loss, the distributary accelerates and the mass loss further intensifies. A time series of the vertical velocity indicates that the glacier tongue has a huge englacial cavity. We suggest that the lake outburst is directly related to the crack of this cavity. Bursting of the lake triggers a mini-surge at the glacier tongue. The vertical velocity at the ice dam was ∼+60 cm/day before the lake outburst, and ∼−113 cm/day afterwards. After drainage of the lake, flow velocities at the distributary, do not sharply decrease because pre-drainage mass loss needs to be replenished by fast flow. Based on comparisons with previous measurements, our results indicate that the lake had an increasing influence on the glacier from 2005 to 2009. This study demonstrates that a time series of 3D glacier motion based on the PO-SBAS technique is effective for assessing the dynamics of a mountain glacial system and interactions with its glacial lake.

Quick Release of Internal Water Storage in a Glacier Leads to Underestimation of the Hazard Potential of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Lake Merzbacher in Central Tian Shan Mountains

AbstractGlacial meltwater and ice calving contribute to the flood volume of glacial lakes such as Lake Merzbacher in the Tian Shan Mountains of central Asia. In this study, we simulated the lake's volume by constructing an empirical relationship between the area of Lake Merzbacher, determined from satellite images, and the lake's water storage, derived from digital elevation models. Results showed that the lake water supply rate before Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) generally agreed well with those during the GLOFs from 2009 to 2012 but not in 2008 and 2015. Furthermore, we found that the combination of glacial meltwater and ice calving is not enough to fully explain the supply rate during GLOFs in 1996 and 1999, suggesting other factors affect the supply rate during GLOFs as well. To examine this further, we compared the water supply rate before and during GLOF events in 1999 and 2008. We inferred that quickly released short‐term and intermediate‐term water storage by glaciers have likely contributed to both flood events in those years. This study highlights the need to improve our understanding of the supply component of outburst floods, such as irregularly released stored water may lead to GLOF events with generally three different types: case I (singular event‐triggered englacial water release), case II (glacier melt due to temperature changes), and case III (englacial water release mixed with glacier melt).

Remote-sensing-based analysis of the 1996 surge of Northern Inylchek Glacier, central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

The evolution of Northern Inylchek Glacier and its proglacial lake - Upper Lake Merzbacher - during its 1996 surge and the surrounding decades is analyzed with remote sensing imagery. Overall retreat of the glacier from 1943 to 1996 enlarged the lake to 4km long and ≈100m deep. The surge in 1996 initiated between 12 September and 7 October and advanced the glacier by 3.7km to override most of Upper Lake Merzbacher. The surge phase probably ended in December 1996 and involved mean flow velocities across the lower trunk of the glacier that reached 50md−1 over a 32-day period. Water displaced by the surge from Upper Lake Merzbacher, totalling 1.5×108m3 in volume, accelerated filling of Lower Lake Merzbacher downvalley and helped trigger this marginal ice-dammed lake to outburst in a jökulhlaup around late November/early December. The characteristics and duration of the surge render it as similar to temperate glacier surges elsewhere. It may have been facilitated by low basal friction caused by water-saturated sediments in the upper lake bed. Furthermore, bathymetric measurements show that the surge evacuated much sediment into the upper lake, causing its depth to reduce from 20 to 30m in 1996 to 8m by 2005 and 2m by 2011; the corresponding deposition rates imply glacier-catchment specific mean sediment yields of 1.4 to 3.4×103Mgkm−2a−1 in the years after the surge. Our study documents novel interactions within a cascade system of glaciers and lakes that exhibits surging and outburst-flood behavior.

Mass changes of Southern and Northern Inylchek Glacier, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan, during ∼1975 and 2007 derived from remote sensing data

Abstract. Glacier melt is an essential source of freshwater for the arid regions surrounding the Tian Shan. However, the knowledge about glacier volume and mass changes over the last decades is limited. In the present study, glacier area, glacier dynamics and mass changes are investigated for the period ~1975–2007 for Southern Inylchek Glacier (SIG) and Northern Inylchek Glacier (NIG), the largest glacier system in Central Tian Shan separated by the regularly draining Lake Merzbacher. The area of NIG increased by 2.0 ± 0.1 km2 (~1.3%) in the period ~1975–2007. In contrast, SIG has shrunk continuously in all investigated periods since ~1975. Velocities of SIG in the central part of the ablation region reached ~100–120 m a−1 in 2002/2003, which was slightly higher than the average velocity in 2010/2011. The central part of SIG flows mainly towards Lake Merzbacher rather than towards its terminus. The measured velocities at the distal part of the terminus downstream of Lake Merzbacher were below the uncertainty, indicating very low flow with even stagnant parts. Geodetic glacier mass balances have been calculated using multi-temporal digital elevation models from KH-9 Hexagon (representing the year 1975), SRTM3 (1999), ALOS PRISM (2006) and SPOT-5 high-resolution geometrical (HRG) data (2007). In general, a continuous mass loss for both SIG and NIG could be observed between ~1975 and 2007. SIG lost mass at a rate of 0.43 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1 and NIG at a rate of 0.25 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1 within the period ~1975–1999. For the period 1999–2007, the highest mass loss of 0.57 ± 0.46 m w.e. a−1 was found for NIG, whilst SIG showed a potential moderate mass loss of 0.28 ± 0.46 m w.e. a−1. Both glaciers showed a small retreat during this period. Between ~1975 and 1999, we identified a thickening at the front of NIG with a maximum surface elevation increase of about 150 m as a consequence of a surge event. In contrast significant thinning (>0.5 m a−1) and comparatively high velocities close to the dam of Lake Merzbacher were observed for SIG, indicating that Lake Merzbacher enhances glacier mass loss.

Estimating Spatial and Temporal Variability in Surface Kinematics of the Inylchek Glacier, Central Asia, using TerraSAR–X Data

We use 124 scenes of TerraSAR–X data that were acquired in 2009 and 2010 to analyse the spatial and temporal variability in surface kinematics of the debris-covered Inylchek Glacier, located in the Tien Shan mountain range in Central Asia. By applying the feature tracking method to the intensity information of the radar data and combining the results from the ascending and descending orbits, we derive the surface velocity field of the glaciated area. Analysing the seasonal variations over the upper part of the Southern Inylchek branch, we find a temperature-related increase in velocity from 25 cm/d up to 50 cm/d between spring and summer, with the peak occurring in June. Another prominent velocity peak is observable one month later in the lower part of the Southern Inylchek branch. This area shows generally little motion, with values of approximately 5–10 cm/d over the year, but yields surface kinematics of up to 25 cm/d during the peak period. Comparisons of the dates of annual glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) of the proglacial Lake Merzbacher suggest that this lower part is directly influenced by the drainage, leading to the observed mini-surge, which has over twice the normal displacement rate. With regard to the GLOF and the related response of Inylchek Glacier, we conclude that X–band radar systems such as TerraSAR–X have a high potential for detecting and characterising small-scale glacial surface kinematic variations and should be considered for future inter-annual glacial monitoring tasks.

Modeling runoff from the inylchek glaciers and filling of ice‐dammed lake merzbacher, central tian shan

We developed a spatially distributed conceptual melt and runoff model able to cope with debris covered glacier parts. Subdebris melt was calculated based on empirical equations derived from field observations. The model was applied at the nylchek glaciers. While runoff from outhern nylchek flows directly into nylchek iver, runoff from orthern nylchek is blocked by outhern nylchek and forms ake erzbacher. This lake is drained frequently by outburst floods. To calibrate the model, a multi‐algorithm, genetically adaptive multi‐objective method () was used. Daily runoff observations from nylchek iver as well as glacier mass balance gradients from other glaciers in the ian han were used as objective functions in three split samples. Runoff simulations yielded ash–utcliffe coefficients mostly higher than 0.9, and the mass balance gradients were simulated in an acceptable range. The results of the different split samples vary considerably. Considering the used objective functions and additional data such as the equilibrium line altitude, we chose the most promising parameter set to calculate the filling of ake erzbacher. This analysis indicated answers to several questions concerning the hydrological system of the lake. Apart from calving at the ice dam formed by outhern nylchek glacier, the lake seemed so be filled predominantly by meltwater from orthern nylchek glacier. The lake has a permanent runoff, also during the filling process. After the outburst, the channels seemed to be closed quickly.

Analysis of changes in climate and river discharge with focus on seasonal runoff predictability in the Aksu River Basin

The River Aksu is the principal tributary to the River Tarim, providing about three quarters of its discharge. It originates in Kyrgyzstan and flows into the arid areas of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China, where an extensive irrigated agriculture has been developed in the river oases. The aim of the present contribution is to review the current trends in temperature, precipitation, and river discharge and links between these variables. The temperature in the region and the river discharge have been rising. Changes were studied using multiple trend analyses with different start and end years. Correlations between daily temperature and discharge are high and statistically significant for two headwater subcatchments of the Aksu for most of the time. However, there are episodes in late summer or beginning of autumn when correlations between temperature and discharge for the Xiehela station are absent. This can only be explained by Glacial Lake Outburst Floods from the Lake Merzbacher that are not routinely monitored. On an annual time scale, changes in summer discharge in the highly glacierized Xiehela subcatchment are dominated by changes in temperature. In contrast, in the subcatchment Shaliguilanke, variations in summer streamflow are more strongly influenced by variations in precipitation. A comparison of links between climatic variables and streamflow at different temporal scales is offered. Perspectives for seasonal forecasting are examined.

Index for hazard of Glacier Lake Outburst flood of Lake Merzbacher by satellite-based monitoring of lake area and ice cover

Previous studies show that the area of a moraine-dammed lake can provide a good indicator of the significance of its outburst. For a glacier-dammed lake however, because its area and depth fluctuates with the melting of its ice dam, it is difficult to predict the outburst of the glacier‐dammed lake by using its area alone.A characteristic of the surface of Lake Merzbacher is a large amount of floating ice therefore, a method is proposed in this article to extract the area of floating ice on the lake and the area of ice free water in the lake by using Environment and Disaster Monitoring Small Satellite images respectively. Furthermore, based on the area of floating ice extracted through the image information of Lake Merzbacher in 2009 and 2010, we determined the relationship between the ice area and the outburst of the lake, then formulated the Index for hazard of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (IGLOF) of Lake Merzbacher, which cannot only predict the flood outburst, but also determine the specific outburst period after the lake drainage had occurred. This can be shown in a recalculation of the lake drainages in the years 2009 and 2010. Research results indicate that when IGLOF is less than 0.5 and the lake area is larger than 3km2, the outburst process is in early-warning period and GLOF will occur in the next 5–8days. Also, the successful outburst prediction of Lake Merzbacher in 2011 showed that the index described in this paper provides a quick methodology for forecasting and warning against Lake Merzbacher outburst floods. However，as our research was based on a short observation period (2009-2011) and also cannot be supplemented by other images, it will still be needed to be checked and validated by continuous observation and improvement in future.

Post‐drainage ice dam response at lake merzbacher, inylchek glacier, kyrgyzstan

.The Inylchek glacier system in Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan, comprises a large glacier‐dammed lake which usually drains once a year through a subglacial drainage system. Detailed GPS measurements on the ice dam and the analysis of Aster scenes from several subsequent years provide insight into the post‐drainage dam response and the changed ice dynamic conditions. We demonstrate that during high water levels in the lake a large part of the ice dam is afloat, lifting the ice surface up to almost 20 m in the central dam region. During this phase of extensive flotation strong calving is facilitated, which is supported by the high density of ice debris in the lake. In general, surface ice velocities are about 1.5‐2 times higher during summer than winter. Closer to the lake, however, ice velocities increase considerably after the drainage event, showing values more than three times the annual mean. The increased mass flux during the phase of high lake level needs to be compensated by replenishment of the lost ice from the dam. Therefore the ice velocities show compressive flow during the remaining part of the year. These results show that Southern Inylchek glacier is strongly influenced by the existence of the lake.