Lake-effect Events Research Articles

Elevated Mixed Layers during Great Lake Lake-Effect Events: An Investigation and Case Study from OWLeS

Abstract Data from rawinsondes launched during intensive observation periods (IOPs) of the Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems (OWLeS) field project reveal that elevated mixed layers (EMLs) in the lower troposphere were relatively common near Lake Ontario during OWLeS lake-effect events. Conservatively, EMLs exist in 193 of the 290 OWLeS IOP soundings. The distribution of EML base pressure derived from the OWLeS IOP soundings reveals two classes of EML, one that has a relatively low-elevation base (900–750 hPa) and one that has a relatively high-elevation base (750–500 hPa). It is hypothesized that the former class of EML, which is the focus of this research, is, at times, the result of mesoscale processes related to individual Great Lakes. WRF reanalysis fields from a case study during the OWLeS field project provide evidence of two means by which low-elevation base EMLs can originate from the lake-effect boundary layer convection and associated mesoscale circulations. First, such EMLs can form within the upper-level outflow branches of mesoscale solenoidal circulations. Evacuated Great Lakes–modified convective boundary layer air aloft then lies above ambient air of a greater static stability, forming EMLs. Second, such EMLs can form in the absence of a mesoscale solenoidal circulation when Great Lake–modified convective boundary layers overrun ambient air of a greater density. The reanalysis fields show that EMLs and layers of reduced static stability tied to Great Lakes–modified convective boundary layers can extend downwind for hundreds of kilometers from their areas of formation. Operational implications and avenues for future research are discussed.

Retrieval of Snow Water Equivalent by the Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP) in the Northern Great Lakes

Abstract Performance of the Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP) for estimating the snow water equivalent (SWE) is evaluated through a comparative study with the collocated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service snow stake field measurements. The PIP together with a vertically pointing radar, a weighing bucket gauge, and a laser-optical disdrometer was deployed at the NWS Marquette, Michigan, office building for a long-term field study supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Global Precipitation Measurement mission Ground Validation program. The site was also equipped with a weather station. During the 2017/18 winter, the PIP functioned nearly uninterrupted at frigid temperatures accumulating 2345.8 mm of geometric snow depth over a total of 499 h. This long record consists of 30 events, and the PIP-retrieved and snow stake field measured SWE differed less than 15% in every event. Two of the major events with the longest duration and the highest accumulation are examined in detail. The particle mass with a given diameter was much lower during a shallow, colder, uniform lake-effect event than in the deep, less cold, and variable synoptic event. This study demonstrated that the PIP is a robust instrument for operational use, and is reliable for deriving the bulk properties of falling snow.

Temporal trends in snowfall contribution induced by lake-effect synoptic types

ABSTRACT Using a synoptic classification technique and gridded snow dataset, snowfall was evaluated in the eastern Great Lakes region from 1950-2009 during atmospheric conditions suitable for the development of lake-effect snow. Specific emphases were placed on detailing the long-term changes to snowfall magnitude and frequency, and quantifying changes in the contribution of total snowfall from lake-effect synoptic types. For Lakes Erie and Ontario, snowfall from lake-effect synoptic types represented approximately 48% of total snowfall, and 42% of snowfall days are synoptically lake-effect in nature. Over time, the percentage of total early-season snowfall from lake-effect synoptic types significantly increased downwind of the Lakes, by approximately 0.4% yr-1, corresponding to an increase from approximately 40% lake-effect in the 1950s, to over 60% in the 2000s. This was due, in part, to changes in the frequency of snowfall-producing synoptic types, decreases in the percentage of precipitation falling as snow during non-lake-effect events, and increases in the magnitude of snowfall per lake-effect event. Changes in the proportion of total snowfall from lake-effect processes carries implications to water resources due to differences in snow-water-equivalent between lake-effect snow and snowfall from other mechanisms, such as mid-latitude cyclones.

Factors Affecting the Inland and Orographic Enhancement of Lake-Effect Precipitation over the Tug Hill Plateau

The factors affecting the inland and orographic enhancement of lake-effect precipitation are poorly understood, yet critical for operational forecasting. Here we use nine cool seasons (16 November–15 April) of radar data from the Montague/Ft. Drum, New York (KTYX), WSR-88D, the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and observations from the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign to examine variations in lake-effect precipitation enhancement east of Lake Ontario and over the Tug Hill Plateau (hereafter Tug Hill). Key factors affecting the inland and orographic enhancement in this region include the strength of the incident boundary layer flow, the intensity of the lake-induced convective available potential energy (LCAPE), and the mode of the lake-effect system. Stronger flow favors higher precipitation rates, a precipitation maximum displaced farther downwind, and greater inland and orographic enhancement. The effects of LCAPE depend upon the strength of the flow. During periods of weak flow, higher LCAPE favors lower precipitation rates, a maximum closer to the shoreline, and lesser inland and orographic enhancement. During periods of strong flow, higher LCAPE favors higher precipitation rates, a maximum displaced farther downwind, and greater inland and orographic enhancement. Banded (nonbanded) modes favor higher (lower) precipitation rates, lesser (greater) inland and orographic enhancement, and a maximum closer to the shoreline (over Tug Hill). These results, for both manually measured and radar-estimated precipitation, are robust when many lake-effect events are considered, but substantial variability exists during individual events.

Airborne Radar Observations of Lake-Effect Snowbands over the New York Finger Lakes

AbstractThe vast majority of lake-effect snow research throughout the years has focused on the North American Great Lakes since they are often associated with strong lake-effect events that produce heavy downstream snowfall. This study investigates a lake-effect snow event that instead occurred over two smaller lakes, the New York Finger Lakes, which are just O(5) km wide and O(50) km long. A pair of well-defined snowbands that formed over Seneca and Cayuga Lakes, the two largest of the Finger Lakes, were sampled from above by a vertically pointing Doppler radar and lidar on board the University of Wyoming King Air (UWKA). With typical widths matching the widths of the lakes, and depths of less than 1000 m, the long-lake-axis-parallel bands were actually quite intense for their size. For example, updrafts of 2–3 m s−1 or greater within the band cores were common, and reflectivity occasionally exceeded 5 dBZ. Airborne dual-Doppler data show that both bands were sometimes accompanied by a well-defined thermally driven secondary circulation. Lidar data reveal that the Cayuga Lake band contained significantly more liquid water than the band over Seneca Lake, which was composed mainly of ice. Dissipating lake-effect ice clouds, carried downstream from Lake Ontario toward Seneca Lake, likely seeded the emerging convection over Seneca Lake, resulting in an accelerated depletion of liquid in the Seneca Lake band via more efficient snow growth.

Climatology of Lake-Effect Precipitation Events over Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake

AbstractThe frequency, timing, and environmental conditions of lake-effect (LE) precipitation over Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake in northern California and western Nevada were examined for the 14 winters (September–March) from 1996/97 through 2009/10. Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from Reno, Nevada (KRGX), were used to identify 62 LE events. LE precipitation occurred as single bands extending downwind from overlake areas, and as isolated regions of overlake precipitation with little or no extension over land. Mesoscale vortices were also identified during both Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake LE events. An average of 4.4 LE events occurred each winter in the Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake region, with events occurring most frequently in October. LE events had an average duration of 6.3 h, approximately half the duration of LE events observed over Lake Champlain, the New York State Finger Lakes, or the Great Salt Lake. The observed conditions during LE events in the Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake region typically had 1) mean surface air temperatures below freezing, 2) mean surface wind speeds of <2.0 m s−1 (notably weaker than during lake effect in other areas), 3) a mean lake–air temperature difference of 11.5°C, and 4) a mean lake–700-hPa temperature difference of 20.9°C.

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow From Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

There is an increased interest in detecting and estimating the amount of falling snow reaching the Earth's surface in order to fully capture the global atmospheric water cycle. An initial step toward global spaceborne falling snow algorithms for current and future missions includes determining the thresholds of detection for various active and passive sensor channel configurations and falling snow events over land surfaces and lakes. In this paper, cloud resolving model simulations of lake effect and synoptic snow events were used to determine the minimum amount of snow (threshold) that could be detected by the following instruments: the W-band radar of CloudSat, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) Ku- and Ka-bands, and the GPM Microwave Imager. Eleven different nonspherical snowflake shapes were used in the analysis. Notable results include the following: 1) The W-band radar has detection thresholds more than an order of magnitude lower than the future GPM radars; 2) the cloud structure macrophysics influences the thresholds of detection for passive channels (e.g., snow events with larger ice water paths and thicker clouds are easier to detect); 3) the snowflake microphysics (mainly shape and density) plays a large role in the detection threshold for active and passive instruments; 4) with reasonable assumptions, the passive 166-GHz channel has detection threshold values comparable to those of the GPM DPR Ku- and Ka-band radars with ~ 0.05 g·m <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-3</sup> detected at the surface, or an ~ 0.5-1.0-mm·h <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-1</sup> melted snow rate. This paper provides information on the light snowfall events missed by the sensors and not captured in global estimates.

Orographic Influences on a Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm

Abstract Although several mountain ranges surround the Great Salt Lake (GSL) of northern Utah, the extent to which orography modifies GSL-effect precipitation remains largely unknown. Here the authors use observational and numerical modeling approaches to examine the influence of orography on the GSL-effect snowstorm of 27 October 2010, which generated 6–10 mm of precipitation (snow-water equivalent) in the Salt Lake Valley and up to 30 cm of snow in the Wasatch Mountains. The authors find that the primary orographic influences on the event are 1) foehnlike flow over the upstream orography that warms and dries the incipient low-level air mass and reduces precipitation coverage and intensity; 2) orographically forced convergence that extends downstream from the upstream orography, is enhanced by blocking windward of the Promontory Mountains, and affects the structure and evolution of the lake-effect precipitation band; and 3) blocking by the Wasatch and Oquirrh Mountains, which funnels the flow into the Salt Lake Valley, reinforces the thermally driven convergence generated by the GSL, and strongly enhances precipitation. The latter represents a synergistic interaction between lake and downstream orographic processes that is crucial for precipitation development, with a dramatic decrease in precipitation intensity and coverage evident in simulations in which either the lake or the orography are removed. These results help elucidate the spectrum of lake–orographic processes that contribute to lake-effect events and may be broadly applicable to other regions where lake effect precipitation occurs in proximity to complex terrain.

The Role of Ice Cover in Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as Simulated by RegCM4

Abstract A 20-km regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), is employed to investigate heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) over the Great Lakes Basin and the role of ice cover in regulating these events. When coupled to a lake model and driven with atmospheric reanalysis data between 1976 and 2002, RegCM4 reproduces the major characteristics of HLES. The influence of lake ice cover on HLES is investigated through 10 case studies (2 per Great Lake), in which a simulated heavy lake-effect event is compared with a companion simulation having 100% ice cover imposed on one or all of the Great Lakes. These experiments quantify the impact of ice cover on downstream snowfall and demonstrate that Lake Superior has the strongest, most widespread influence on heavy snowfall and Lake Ontario the least. Ice cover strongly affects a wide range of atmospheric variables above and downstream of lakes during HLES, including snowfall, surface energy fluxes, wind speed, temperature, moisture, clouds, and air pressure. Averaged among the 10 events, complete ice coverage causes major reductions in lake-effect snowfall (&amp;gt;80%) and turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes (&amp;gt;90%), less low cloudiness, lower temperatures, and higher air pressure. Another important consequence is a consistent weakening (30%–40%) of lower-tropospheric winds over the lakes when completely frozen. This momentum reduction further decreases over-lake evaporation and weakens downstream wind convergence, thus mitigating lake-effect snowfall. This finding suggests a secondary, dynamical mechanism by which ice cover affects downstream snowfall during HLES events, in addition to the more widely recognized thermodynamic influence.

Surface and atmospheric contributions to passive microwave brightness temperatures for falling snow events

Physically based passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms require a set of relationships between satellite -observed brightness temperatures (TBs) and the physical state of the underlying atmosphere and surface. These relationships are nonlinear, such that inversions are ill ]posed especially over variable land surfaces. In order to elucidate these relationships, this work presents a theoretical analysis using TB weighting functions to quantify the percentage influence of the TB resulting from absorption, emission, and/or reflection from the surface, as well as from frozen hydrometeors in clouds, from atmospheric water vapor, and from other contributors. The percentage analysis was also compared to Jacobians. The results are presented for frequencies from 10 to 874 GHz, for individual snow profiles, and for averages over three cloud-resolving model simulations of falling snow. The bulk structure (e.g., ice water path and cloud depth) of the underlying cloud scene was found to affect the resultant TB and percentages, producing different values for blizzard, lake effect, and synoptic snow events. The slant path at a 53 viewing angle increases the hydrometeor contributions relative to nadir viewing channels. Jacobians provide the magnitude and direction of change in the TB values due to a change in the underlying scene; however, the percentage analysis provides detailed information on how that change affected contributions to the TB from the surface, hydrometeors, and water vapor. The TB percentage information presented in this paper provides information about the relative contributions to the TB and supplies key pieces of information required to develop and improve precipitation retrievals over land surfaces.

WRF Simulations of the 20–22 January 2007 Snow Events over Eastern Canada: Comparison with In Situ and Satellite Observations

Abstract One of the grand challenges of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to improve cold-season precipitation measurements in mid- and high latitudes through the use of high-frequency passive microwave radiometry. For this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Goddard microphysics scheme is coupled with a Satellite Data Simulation Unit (WRF–SDSU) to facilitate snowfall retrieval algorithms over land by providing a virtual cloud library and corresponding microwave brightness temperature measurements consistent with the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). When this study was initiated, there were no prior published results using WRF at cloud-resolving resolution (1 km or finer) for high-latitude snow events. This study tested the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme in WRF for two different snowstorm events (a lake-effect event and a synoptic event between 20 and 22 January 2007) that took place over the Canadian CloudSat/Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) Validation Project (C3VP) site in Ontario, Canada. The 24-h-accumulated snowfall predicted by WRF with the Goddard microphysics was comparable to that observed by the ground-based radar for both events. The model correctly predicted the onset and termination of both snow events at the Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments site. The WRF simulations captured the basic cloud patterns as seen by the ground-based radar and satellite [i.e., CloudSat and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit B (AMSU-B)] observations, including the snowband featured in the lake event. The results reveal that WRF was able to capture the cloud macrostructure reasonably well. Sensitivity tests utilizing both the “2ICE” (ice and snow) and “3ICE” (ice, snow, and graupel) options in the Goddard microphysical scheme were also conducted. The domain- and time-averaged cloud species profiles from the WRF simulations with both microphysical options show identical results (due to weak vertical velocities and therefore the absence of large precipitating liquid or high-density ice particles like graupel). Both microphysics options produced an appreciable amount of liquid water, and the model cloud liquid water profiles compared well to the in situ C3VP aircraft measurements when only grid points in the vicinity of the flight paths were considered. However, statistical comparisons between observed and simulated radar echoes show that the model tended to have a high bias of several reflectivity decibels (dBZ), which shows that additional research is needed to improve the current cloud microphysics scheme for the extremely cold environment in high latitudes, despite the fact that the simulated ice/liquid water contents may have been reasonable for both events. Future aircraft observations are also needed to verify the existence of graupel in high-latitude continental snow events.

Climatological Conditions of Lake-Effect Precipitation Events Associated with the New York State Finger Lakes

Abstract A climatological analysis was conducted of the environmental and atmospheric conditions that occurred during 125 identified lake-effect (LE) precipitation events in the New York State Finger Lakes region for the 11 winters (October–March) from 1995/96 through 2005/06. The results complement findings from an earlier study reporting on the frequency and temporal characteristics of Finger Lakes LE events that occurred as 1) isolated precipitation bands over and downwind of a lake (NYSFL events), 2) an enhancement of LE precipitation originating from Lake Ontario (LOenh events), 3) an LE precipitation band embedded within widespread synoptic precipitation (SYNOP events), or 4) a transition from one type to another. In comparison with SYNOP and LOenh events, NYSFL events developed with the 1) coldest temperatures, 2) largest lake–air temperature differences, 3) weakest wind speeds, 4) highest sea level pressure, and 5) lowest height of the stable-layer base. Several significant differences in conditions were found when only one or both of Cayuga and Seneca Lakes, the largest Finger Lakes, had LE precipitation as compared with when the smaller Finger Lakes also produced LE precipitation. In addition, transitional events containing an NYSFL time period occurred in association with significantly colder and drier air masses, larger lake–air temperature differences, and a less stable and shallower boundary layer in comparison with those associated with solitary NYSFL events.

The Frequency and Characteristics of Lake-Effect Precipitation Events Associated with the New York State Finger Lakes

Abstract This study presents a climatological analysis of the frequency and characteristics of lake-effect precipitation events that were initiated or enhanced by lakes within the New York State (NYS) Finger Lakes region for the 11 winters (October–March) from 1995/96 through 2005/06. Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from Binghamton, New York, were used to identify 125 lake-effect events. Events occurred as 1) a well-defined, isolated precipitation band over and downwind of a lake, 2) an enhancement of mesoscale lake-effect precipitation originating from Lake Ontario and extending southward over an individual Finger Lake, 3) a quasi-stationary mesoscale precipitation band positioned over a lake embedded within extensive regional precipitation from a synoptic weather system, or 4) a transition from one type to another. Results show that lake-effect precipitation routinely develops over lakes that are considerably smaller than lakes previously discussed as being associated with lake-effect precipitation, such as the Great Lakes. Lake-effect events occurred during each month (October–March) across the 11 winters studied and were identified in association with each of the six easternmost Finger Lakes examined in this study. The frequency of NYS Finger Lakes lake-effect events determined in the current investigation paired with subsequent analyses of the environmental conditions leading to these events will allow for 1) comparative analyses of necessary conditions for lake-effect development across a range of lake sizes (e.g., NYS Finger Lakes, Lake Champlain, Great Salt Lake, and Great Lakes) and 2) an informative examination of the connection between mesoscale processes and climate variability.

Climatology of Lake-Effect Precipitation Events over Lake Champlain

Abstract This study provides the first long-term climatological analysis of lake-effect precipitation events that developed in relation to a small lake (having a surface area of ≤1500 km2). The frequency and environmental conditions favorable for Lake Champlain lake-effect precipitation were examined for the nine winters (October–March) from 1997/98 through 2005/06. Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from Burlington, Vermont, were used to identify 67 lake-effect events. Events occurred as 1) well-defined, isolated lake-effect bands over and downwind of the lake, independent of larger-scale precipitating systems (LC events), 2) quasi-stationary lake-effect bands over the lake embedded within extensive regional precipitation from a synoptic weather system (SYNOP events), or 3) a transition from SYNOP and LC lake-effect precipitation. The LC events were found to occur under either a northerly or a southerly wind regime. An examination of the characteristics of these lake-effect events provides several unique findings that are useful for comparison with known lake-effect environments for larger lakes. January was the most active month with an average of nearly four lake-effect events per winter, and approximately one of every four LC events occurred with southerly winds. Event initiation and dissipation occurred on a diurnal time scale with an average duration of 12.1 h. In general, Lake Champlain lake-effect events 1) typically yielded snowfall, with surface air temperatures rarely above 0°C, 2) frequently had an overlake mesolow present with a sea level pressure departure of 3–5 hPa, 3) occurred in a very stable environment with a surface inversion frequently present outside the Lake Champlain Valley, and 4) averaged a surface lake–air temperature difference of 14.4°C and a lake–850-hPa temperature difference of 18.2°C. Lake Champlain lake-effect events occur within a limited range of wind and temperature conditions, thus providing events that are more sensitive to small changes in environmental conditions than are large-lake lake-effect events and offering a more responsive system for subsequent investigation of connections between mesoscale processes and climate variability.

Boundary Layer and Microphysical Influences of Natural Cloud Seeding on a Lake-Effect Snowstorm

Abstract The first detailed observations of the interaction of a synoptic cyclone with a lake-effect convective boundary layer (CBL) were obtained on 5 December 1997 during the Lake-Induced Convection Experiment. Lake-effect precipitation and CBL growth rates were enhanced by natural seeding by snow from higher-level clouds and the modified thermodynamic structure of the air over Lake Michigan due to the cyclone. In situ aircraft observations, project and operational rawinsondes, airborne radar, and operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler data were utilized to document the CBL and precipitation structure for comparison with past nonenhanced lake-effect events. Despite modest surface heat fluxes of 100–200 W m−2, cross-lake CBL growth was greatly accelerated as the convection merged with an overlying reduced-stability layer. Over midlake areas, CBL growth rates averaged more than twice those previously reported for lake-effect and oceanic cold-air outbreak situations. Regions of the lake-effect CBL cloud deck were seeded by precipitation from higher-level clouds over the upwind (western) portions of Lake Michigan before the CBL merged with the overlying reduced-stability layer. In situ aircraft observations suggest that in seeded regions, the CBL was deeper than in nonseeded regions. In addition, average water-equivalent precipitation rates for all of the passes with seeded regions were more than an order of magnitude greater in seeded regions than nonseeded regions because of higher concentration of snow particles of all sizes. A maximum snowfall rate of 4.28 mm day−1 was calculated using aircraft particle observations in seeded regions, comparable to snowfall rates previously reported for lake-effect events, often with much larger surface heat fluxes, but not interacting with synoptic cyclones.

Land Surface Roughness Effects on Lake Effect Precipitation

The land use of the Great Lakes region has changed significantly during historical times, and continues to change. As a preliminary step in investigating the overall effect that this might have on climate, attention is focused here on one forcing factor and one effect—land surface roughness length and lake effect precipitation, respectively—that are anticipated to be particularly sensitive pieces of the land use-climate interaction. On both a monthly basis and in an individual case of lake effect precipitation, a reduction of land surface roughness reduces the total amount of lake effect precipitation. It also reduces the degree to which the precipitation is focused on the area closest to the lakeshore. The largest reductions occur immediately adjacent to the lakeshore in an area smaller than the overall lake effect zone. In the individual lake effect event that is investigated here, precipitation increases in some places farther inland when surface roughness is reduced. Because this increase in precipitation farther inland appears to be associated with significant topography, this result is most valid for lake effect zones where there is a high topographic relief, such as near southeastern Lake Erie (the main focus of this study), and to the south and east of Lake Ontario. This displacement in location of precipitation is particularly crucial where the boundary of the drainage basin is near the shoreline, and can indicate a flux of moisture out of the Great Lakes drainage basin and into another basin.

Observations of Transient Linear Organization and Nonlinear Scale Interactions in Lake-Effect Clouds. Part I: Transient Linear Organization

Abstract The cold-air outbreak of 13–14 January 1998 during the Lake-Induced Convection Experiment was characterized by large positive buoyancy flux and moderate wind shear. Although theory predicts only cellular organization in these conditions, transient linear organization was observed. Time series of vertical velocity obtained with the Pennsylvania State University 94-GHz vertically pointing cloud radar, which is sensitive to cloud droplets and ice crystals, were used to document the changes in organization that occurred during this wintertime lake-effect event. The cloud radar was deployed on the downwind shore of southern Lake Michigan and measured high-temporal-resolution vertical velocity data at several in-cloud heights. The duration of the event was 18 h, encompassing three cycles of linear organization switching to cellular organization. In Part I of this two-part series the authors document the transient nature of the linearly organized convection and evaluate the role of atmospheric conditions in the mode switching between linear and cellular organization. Within the limits of the available measurements, no correlation was found with mean or low-level shear, surface fluxes, or stability parameters. The mode switching in this case does not appear to be controlled by the atmospheric indicators typically associated with linearly organized convection, suggesting that other factors must have played an important role.

Observations of Transient Linear Organization and Nonlinear Scale Interactions in Lake-Effect Clouds. Part II: Nonlinear Scale Interactions

Abstract Linearly organized convection and associated horizontal roll vortices occasionally occur in atmospheric conditions in which theory predicts only cellular organization. One possible contributor to the occurrence of rolls in such conditions is nonlinear interactions between different scales of motion. In the winter of 1997/98, the Lake-Induced Convection Experiment (Lake-ICE) was conducted in part to investigate scale interactions in linearly organized convection. As discussed in Part I of this series, transient linear organization was observed during a wintertime lake-effect event during Lake-ICE. In Part II two-part nonlinear scale interactions and their possible role in the occurrence of linear organization in an unfavorable environment are investigated. Turbulence-scale vertical velocity variance peaks were consistently observed during roll strengthening and decay, suggesting a link between the scales. Composites of the nonlinear interaction terms in the roll-scale vertical turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget revealed that nonlinear interactions between the roll and turbulence scales were large compared to the observed change in roll-scale TKE, but do not coincide in time.

Comparison of Observations with Idealized Model Results for a Method to Resolve Winter Lake-Effect Mesoscale Morphology

Abstract Forecasters in the Great Lakes region have for several decades recognized a general relationship of wind speed and overlake fetch to lake-effect snowstorm morphology. A recent study using idealized mesoscale model simulations of lake-effect conditions over circular and elliptical lakes showed the ratio of wind speed to maximum fetch distance (U/L) may be used to effectively predict lake-effect snowstorm morphology. The current investigation provides an assessment of the U/L criteria using observational datasets. Previously published Great Lakes lake-effect snowstorm observational studies were used to identify events of known mesoscale morphology. Hindcasts of nearly 640 lake-effect events were performed using historical observations with U/L as the predictor. Results show that the quantity U/L contains important information on the different mesoscale lake-effect morphologies; however, it provides only a limited benefit when being used to predict mesoscale morphology in real lake-effect situations...

Convective Evolution across Lake Michigan during a Widespread Lake-Effect Snow Event

Abstract Lake-effect snowstorms generally develop within convective boundary layers, which are induced when cold air flows over relatively warm lakes in fall and winter. Mesoscale circulations within the boundary layers largely control which communities near the downwind shores of the lakes receive the most intense snow. The lack of quantitative observations over the lakes during lake-effect storms limits the ability to fully understand and predict these mesoscale circulations. This study provides the first observations of the concurrent spatial and temporal evolution of the thermodynamic and microphysical boundary layer structure and mesoscale convective patterns across Lake Michigan during an intense lake-effect event. Observations analyzed in this study were taken during the Lake-Induced Convection Experiment (Lake-ICE). Aircraft and sounding observations indicate that the lake-effect snows of 13 January 1998 developed within a convective boundary layer that grew rapidly across Lake Michigan. Boundary ...