Abstract The aquatic Andean frogs of genus Telmatobius are one of the most threatened amphibian taxa, with many species having suffered drastic declines and even possible extinction. The Laguna de los Pozuelos' rusted frog Telmatobius rubigo is a fully aquatic species that inhabits lotic systems in the Argentinean vertex of the Lithium Triangle of South America. This study estimated the environmental suitability of an area and geographical distribution of T. rubigo through an ecological niche model. This study also aimed to assess the possible extent of impacts related to mining operations on this threatened species. The ecological niche model of T. rubigo was obtained using specific freshwater habitat variables and the MaxEnt algorithm. The possible extent of impacts related to mining operations was evaluated by overlaying the mining tenure and the estimated distribution of T. rubigo resulting from the model. According to the ecological niche models, T. rubigo could occupy 2,001 km2 in four Argentine basins and three hydrographical units of southern Bolivia and is unlikely to occur in northern Chile. Five environmental variables had the highest contribution to the best selected model: shrub coverture, soil pH, soil organic carbon, and two variables related to the upstream air temperature. The suitable area for T. rubigo overlaps with mining operations by 61.8%. We advise the local communities, governmental environmental agencies, mining companies, and environmental assessors to consider the presence of threatened Telmatobius species in areas subject to mining to protect them and their environment. We encourage incorporating the aquatic Andean frogs as key species into management, environmental monitoring, and remediation plans.
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