Lagged Interest Rate Research Articles

Understanding Analysts' Earnings Expectations: Biases, Nonlinearities, and Predictability

Financial analysts’ earnings forecasts are a key determinant of stock prices and understanding how these forecasts evolve over time is important. This paper studies the asymmetric behavior of negative and positive values of analysts’ earnings revisions and links it to the conservatism principle of accounting. Using a new three-state mixture of log-normals model that accounts for dierences in the magnitude and persistence of positive, negative and zero revisions, we find evidence that revisions to analysts’ earnings expectations which under conventional assumptions should follow a martingale dierence process can be predicted using publicly available information such as lagged interest rates and past revisions. We also find that our forecasts of revisions to analysts’ earnings estimate help predict the actual earnings figure beyond the information contained in analysts’ earnings expectations.

Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic - Granger approach

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

INTEREST RATE RULES AND WELFARE IN OPEN ECONOMIES

This paper analyses the welfare performance of a set of five alternative interest rate rules in an open economy stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities. A rule with a lagged interest rate term, high feedback on inflation and low feedback on output is found to yield the highest welfare for a small open economy. This result is robust across different degrees of openness, different sources of home and foreign shocks, alternative foreign monetary rules and different specifications for price-setting behaviour. The same rule emerges as both the Nash and cooperative equilibria in a two-country version of the model.

Tentative evidence of tax foresight

When lagged interest rates and prices are included in a VAR, responses to a tax shock decrease. This reduced-form result is consistent with tax foresight and hence casts doubt on estimates of tax effects under the no-foresight assumption.

Money-Based Interest Rate Rules: Lessons from German Data

The paper derives the monetary policy reaction function implied by money growth targeting. It consists of an interest rate response to deviations of the inflation rate from target, to the change in the output gap, to money demand shocks and to the lagged interest rate. In the second part, it is shown that this type of inertial interest rate rule characterises the Bundesbank's monetary policy from 1979 to 1998 quite well. This result is robust to the use of real-time or ex post data and to the consideration of serially correlated errors. The main lesson is that, in addition to anchoring long-term inflation expectations, monetary targeting introduces inertia and history-dependence into the monetary policy rule. This is advantageous when private agents have forward-looking expectations and when the level of the output gap is subject to persistent measurement errors.

Interest Rate Rules and Welfare in Open Economies

This paper analyses the welfare performance of a set of five alternative interest rate rules in an open economy stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities. A rule with a lagged interest rate term, high feedback on inflation and low feedback on output is found to yield the highest welfare for a small open economy. This result is robust across different degrees of openness, different sources of home and foreign shocks, alternative foreign monetary rules and different specifications for price setting behaviour. The same rule emerges as both the Nash and cooperative equilibria in a two-country version of the model.

Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?

This paper explores some of the asymmetries and nonlinearities in an attempt to throw light on the forward premium anomaly, where spot exchange rate returns are typically found to be negatively correlated with the lagged interest rate differential and lead to an apparent rejection of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP). The approach in this paper is motivated by some recent theoretical literature on the limits to speculation and hysteresis. The paper estimates Logistic Smooth Transition Dynamic Regression (LSTR) models with a variety of transition variables, including the lagged forward premium, monetary and income fundamentals and also variables associated with time varying risk premium, including the conditional variances of some fundamentals. Results are reported for nine different currencies. Many of the estimated LSTR models provide evidence for the existence of an outer regime that is consistent with UIP. Estimation of the standard forward premium regression on observations falling in these regimes across the sample is moderately supportive of UIP holding in the outer regime. A simulation experiment also suggests that an LSTR dgp can produce data consistent with the anomaly. However, parameter estimation issues leads to considerable uncertainty with the estimated transition functions and hence imprecise definitions of regimes. The results are an interesting step in the direction of understanding the nonlinear dimension of the problem without fully resolving the anomaly.

The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate them?

This paper draws attention to inconsistencies in estimating simple monetary policy rules and their implications for policy advice. We simulate a macroeconomic model with a backward reaction function similar to Taylor (1993). We estimate different versions of a policy rule, using these simulated data. Under certain circumstances, estimations document an illusionary presence of a lagged interest rate, or of forward-looking behavior. Our results are consistent with the fact that several authors found very different versions of monetary policy rules, all fitting the U.S. data well. We also survey the literature, providing a list of issues complicating practical use of Taylor rules.

The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?

This paper draws attention to inconsistencies in estimating simple monetary policy rules and their implications for policy advice. We simulate a macroeconomic model with a backward reaction function similar to Taylor (1993). We estimate different versions of a policy rule, using these simulated data. Under certain circumstances, estimations document an illusionary presence of a lagged interest rate, or of forward-looking behavior. Our results are consistent with the fact that several authors found very different versions of monetary policy rules, all fitting the U.S. data well. We also survey the literature, providing a list of issues complicating practical use of Taylor rules.

Implications of Habit Formation for Optimal Monetary Policy

We study the implications for optimal monetary policy of introducing habit formation in consumption into a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. Habit formation affects the model's endogenous dynamics through its effects on both aggregate demand and households' supply of output. We show that the objective of monetary policy consistent with welfare maximisation includes output stablisation, as well as inflation and output gap stablisation. We find that the variance of output increases under optimal policy, even though it acquires a higher implicit weight in the welfare function. We also find that a simple interest rate rule nearly achieves the welfare-optimal allocation, regardless of the degree of habit formation. In this rule, the optimal responses to inflation and the lagged interest rate are both declining in the size of the habit, although super-inertial policies remain optimal.

Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy

We study the implications for optimal monetary policy of introducing habit formation in consumption into a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. Habit formation affects the model's endogenous dynamics through its effects on both aggregate demand and households’ supply of output. We show that the objective of monetary policy consistent with welfare maximization includes output stabilization, as well as inflation and output gap stabilization. We find that the variance of output increases under optimal policy, even though it acquires a higher implicit weight in the welfare function. We also find that a simple interest rate rule nearly achieves the welfare-optimal allocation, regardless of the degree of habit formation. In this rule, the optimal responses to inflation and the lagged interest rate are both declining in the size of the habit, although super-inertial policies remain optimal.

Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules

Many researchers have found that the lagged interest rate enters estimated monetary policy rules with overwhelming significance. However, a recent paper by Rudebusch (2002) argues that the lagged interest rate is not a fundamental component of the U.S. policy rule, and that its significance arises from the omission of serially correlated variables from the policy rule. This paper demonstrates that, contrary to Rudebusch's claims, these two hypotheses can be directly distinguished in the estimation of the policy rule. Our findings indicate that while serially correlated omitted variables may be present, the lagged interest rate enters the policy rule on its own right and plays an important role in describing the behavior of the federal funds rate.

Backward-looking Interest-rate Rules, Interest-rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability

The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis. We find that backward-looking interest-rate feedback rules do not guarantee uniqueness of equilibrium. We present examples in which for plausible parameterizations attracting equilibrium cycles exist. The paper also contributes to the quest for policy rules that guarantee macroeconomic stability globally. Our analysis indicates that policy rules whereby the interest rate is set as a function of the past interest rate and current inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity.

Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules

Many researchers have found that the lagged interest rate enters estimated monetary policy rules with overwhelming significance. However, a recent paper by Rudebusch (2002) argues that the lagged interest rate is not a fundamental component of the U.S. policy rule, and that its significance arises from the omission of serially correlated variables from the policy rule. This paper demonstrates that, contrary to Rudebusch's claims, these two hypotheses can be directly distinguished in the estimation of the policy rule. Our findings indicate that while serially correlated omitted variables may be present, the lagged interest rate enters the policy rule on its own right and plays an important role in describing the behavior of the federal funds rate.

Describing the Fed's Conduct with Taylor Rules: Is Interest Rate Smoothing Important?

In this paper we estimate simple Taylor rules paying particular attention to interest rate smoothing. Following English, Nelson, and Sack (2002), we employ a model in first differences to gain some insights into the presence and significance of the degree of partial adjustment as opposed to a serially correlated policy shock. Moreover, we estimate a nested model to take into account both interest rate smoothing and serially correlated deviations from various Taylor rates prescriptions. Our findings suggest that the lagged interest rate enters the Taylor rule in its own right, and may very well coexist with (usually omitted) variables that relate to asymmetric preferences on the output gap, or financial market indicators. Therefore, while we cannot exclude that serially correlated policy shocks may play a role in describing the federal funds rate path, our results significantly support the importance of the lagged interest rate in Taylor-type models. JEL Classification: E4, E5

Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability

The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis.We find that backward-looking interestrate feedback rules do not guarantee uniqueness of equilibrium. We present examples in which for plausible parameterizations attracting equilibrium cycles exist. The paper also contributes to the quest for policy rules that guarantee macroeconomic stability globally. Our analysis indicates that policy rules whereby the interest rate is set as a function of the past interest rate and current inflation are likely to ensure global stability, provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity.

Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules

Many researchers have found that the lagged interest rate enters estimated monetary policy rules with overwhelming significance. However, a recent paper by Rudebusch (2002) argues that the lagged interest rate is not a fundamental component of the U.S. policy rule, and that its significance arises from the omission of serially correlated variables from the policy rule. This paper demonstrates that, contrary to Rudebusch's claims, these two hypotheses can be directly distinguished in the estimation of the policy rule. Our findings indicate that while serially correlated omitted variables may be present, the lagged interest rate enters the policy rule on its own right and plays an important role in describing the behavior of the federal funds rate.

Evaluating currency market efficiency: are cointegration tests appropriate?

This paper investigates the claim that the common finding of cointegration between spot and lagged forward exchange rates reflects the existence of covered interest arbitrage and not, as is generally accepted, long-run market efficiency. Breuer and Wohar's (1996) methodology is employed to match spot and one-month forward rates correctly for three major currencies; the Deutschmark, Sterling and the Yen, relative to the US dollar. Bi-variate analysis shows that spot and lagged forward rates are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1), a necessary condition for market efficiency. However, at variance with theory, in a tri-variate VECM estimation, the spot rate, lagged forward rate and lagged interest rate differential are shown to be cointegrated with the vector (1,-1,1) for the Mark and Sterling. The ‘cointegration’ paradox is explained by investigating the relative magnitudes of the forecast error and the interest rate differential. It is demonstrated that it is impossible to distinguish between the influence of covered interest arbitrage and the existence of market efficiency using cointegration-based tests.

Implications of Habit Formation for Optimal Monetary Policy

We study the implications for optimal monetary policy of introducing habit formation in consumption into a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. Habit formation affects the model's endogenous dynamics through its effects on both aggregate demand and households' supply of output. We show that the objective of monetary policy consistent with welfare maximization includes output stabilization, as well as inflation and output gap stabilization. We find that the variance of output increases under optimal policy, even though it acquires a higher implicit weight in the welfare function. We also find that a simple interest rate rule nearly achieves the welfare-optimal allocation, regardless of the degree of habit formation. In this rule, the optimal responses to inflation and the lagged interest rate are both declining in the size of the habit, although super-inertial policies remain optimal.

Assymetries in Bank Lending Behavior: Austria During the 1990s

This paper investigates both cross-sectional asymmetry (related to bank-specific characteristics like size and liquidity) and asymmetries overtime (potentially related to the overall state of the economy) in Austrian bank lending reaction to monetary policy. The first type of asymmetry is accounted for by including interaction terms, and the second type is captured by latent state-dependent parameters. Estimation is cast into a Bayesian framework, and the posterior inference is obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. The results document a significant asymmetric effect of interest rate changes over time on bank lending. During economic recovery, lagged interest rate changes have no significant effect on lending. Where the effects are significant, liquidity emerges as the bank characteristic that determines cross-sectional asymmetry.