Lack Of Trade Research Articles

Personal Carbon Budgets: A Pestle Review

Personal Carbon Budgets (PCBs) are a radical policy innovation that seek to reduce an individual’s carbon consumption. This review identifies three archetypes of PCBs in the current literature; Personal Carbon Trading, Carbon Tax and Carbon Labelling. We theorised that carbon trading could affect equity and allow quality of life and consumption to be driven by income rather than needs. We, therefore, developed a new model (Personal Carbon Allowance with no trading) to compare to existing archetypes. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) framework was applied to each archetype to analyse and compare their costs and benefits and to critically evaluate and identify which model may be the most appropriate to reduce emissions severely but equitably. We conclude that the only model that can achieve this is our proposed Personal Carbon Allowance (PCA) model with no trading. PCA has a hard cap on emissions allowing for controllable severe cuts to emissions, and the lack of trading would prohibit those with wealth from continuing high-consumption lifestyles at the expense of those with lower incomes.

Радянські спецслужби vs японської дипломатії (на матеріалах японського консульства в Одесі в міжвоєнний період)

The article is devoted to the activities of the Japanese consulate in Odesa during 1926–1937, which since its opening has been under the “watchful eye” of the Soviet secret services. Throughout the period of the consulate’s existence in the city, it was closely monitored externally and internally, both for its work and for the contacts of consular staff in the city and abroad. The Odesa branch of the DPU established a network of internal agencies that worked directly at the consulate. The consulate was “served” by 11 secret staff, who provided daily relevant information on the activities of the consulate and its staff. The main reasons for such actions were the absence of Japanese citizens in Odesa and the lack of trade and economic relations through the port of Odesa. The Soviet secret services concluded that the opening of the consulate was aimed exclusively at espionage in the USSR. This inference was reinforced by the active study by Japanese employees of the political, economic, cultural, and military situation not only in the consular district but also in other cities of the USSR and the USSR in general, especially the Caucasus. This was facilitated by the constant travels of the Japanese consul in the cities of the USSR. Each employee of the Japanese consulate in Odesa was given a case-form, where the defendant received a nickname, intelligence materials about his activities, personal characteristics and a list of contacts with local citizens were collected, which then fell under the “development” of DPU special agents. The article reveals the process of recruiting “important” representatives of the consulate by Soviet special services. As a result, the translator S. Feldman, the courier-security guard of the Japanese consulate in Odesa M. Tsibulko, the technical secretary Livshits, the typist I. Zagorskaya and others were taken into “agency development”. Recruiters from the DPU’s counterintelligence department took a personal approach to each of them.

Subcontractor Selection Process Through Vendor Bids: A Case of An Outsourcing Service in Construction

Subcontractors handle a large portion of the work in construction projects. The ability of the general contractor to deliver projects on time, within budget and with the expected level of quality are significantly dependent on the performance of subcontractors. Thus, selecting the right subcontractor for the right task is a determining factor for project success. Literature has identified several criteria for subcontractor selection that predominantly includes financial capacity, ability to complete on time and reputation and quality of workmanship. However, as projects are becoming more global and complex, ensuring selection and award through a fair and competitive formal process becomes imperative. Nevertheless, an understanding of a formal process, backing the selection criteria, seems to be lacking; more so in the context of engineering outsourcing services. Vendor bid analysis is one such service, wherein the general contractor packages the bids received from several subcontractors to a team in a different country who evaluate and enable the general contractor to select and award the subcontractors for project tasks. To this end, an exploratory case study was conducted in an outsourcing firm in India that provide services to general contractors in the USA to understand the formal process of subcontractor selection across organizational boundaries along with its inherent risks and challenges. Data was collected through a participatory research approach, supplemented with participant observation and team interviews which were analysed through inductive reasoning and cross-case comparison methods. The findings showed a formalized 5-phase process across the organizational interface that included assess, identify, evaluate, negotiate and optimize phases. Further, delving into the evaluate, negotiate and optimize phases, the nuances in outsourced projects and the firms strategy to overcome them were evident, such as selection criteria and negotiation strategy adopted in the case of a single bidder with high pricing to mitigate probable bid-rigging practices or ensuring constant training to overcome the challenges due to lack of trade and country specific know-how. In addition, through a reflective approach, the value addition services provided to the general contractor aimed to optimize the process and improve project governance. These findings are expected to provide practical implication for firms in similar business and act as a steppingstone to conduct further robust research.

Testimony of Erik F. Gerding Before the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Financial Institutions on 'Emerging Threats to Stability: Considering the Systemic Risk of Leveraged Lending'

Risk is building in the leveraged loan and collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”) markets. These two markets are connected: leveraged loans are being repackaged into CLOs just as mortgages and mortgage-backed securities were used to create collateralized debt obligations (“CDOs”), the financial products at the heart of the financial crisis 11 years ago. There are important differences but also troubling parallels between the leveraged loan/CLO markets and the earlier mortgage/CDO markets. One alarming similarity is the decline in leveraged loan underwriting standards: the market is now dominated by “covenant-lite loans.” Covenant-lite loans permit greater leverage by borrowers and remove an early warning system for lenders. Purchases of CLOs by banks and other regulated financial institutions made in order to game crucial regulatory capital requirements (“regulatory capital arbitrage”) remain a significant concern . Like mortgages and CDOs, leveraged loans and CLOs form a pipeline or system. Disruptions at either end of the system can cause financial havoc on the other end and then ricochet back. This is akin to a coiled spring or “crisis accordion.” Losses or disruptions in the leveraged loan/CLO markets, even if they do not approach the levels of mortgages/CDOs in the global financial crisis could still be significant, e.g., amplifying a recession. We should be humble about our ability to predict the upper bound of financial market disruptions or crises. Some tranches of CLO securities appear not to trade actively. Many CLO securities trade on opaque markets lacking transparent prices. A lack of trading of CLO securities undermines the economic rationale of these securities, as well as their safety and favorable regulatory treatment. A lack of transparent prices means that neither the marketplace nor regulators can rely on prices to police risk-taking in the CLO market. Regulators must monitor and analyze data on leveraged loans and CLO markets. The OFR needs cooperation from other financial regulators in assessing risk in these markets. Lack of data sharing among financial regulators remains a crucial weakness. The OFR needs an independent source of funding. Regulators need minimum standards in their examinations with respect to assessing bank exposure to leveraged loans. I also recommend: - Stress testing of financial markets, not just individual institutions; - Requiring financial regulators to conduct war games to prepare for market disruptions; - Underscoring that the burden is on financial institutions to prove that leveraged loans and CLOs are safe rather than on regulators to prove that they are unsafe. If data gathering reveals significant systemic risk in leveraged lending/CLO markets, regulators should use a mix of tools, including limiting bank investments in CLOs, enhanced and countercyclical capital requirements, and the Volcker Rule “covered funds” provisions.

La explotación de ostras perlíferas en Costa Rica (América Central) desde la conquista hasta inicios del siglo XXI:: historia, conquiliología y algunas reflexiones

Costa Rica had an important, high quality pearl industry at international level. Additionally, there was intense exploitation of the nacre shell (mother of pearl) during the XIX century. The fame of our pearls as well as their trade significantly decreased during the first quarter of the XX century, it all but ended possibly due to overexploitation and lack of trade caused by the decrease of their value brought about by the cultured pearls industry. Costa Rican pearls were intensely extracted from the Santa Elena, Culebra and El Coco bays as well from the Nicoya gulf. The most abundant pearl producing species in the region is Pinctada mazatlanica as well as some populations of Pteria sterna. Nowadays, Pinctada mazatlanica is extracted in an artisanal fashion in Santa Elena’s bay both as food and for its pearls. However, there is no clear data about the importance of the current market, so specialized studies (biological and economical) aiming to determine if this market could be reestablished sustainably for the local populations are recommended.

An Overview of the Liquidity of the South African Vanilla Debt Market

The issue of illiquidity is well known in the South African exchange traded debt market. Lack of trade leads to out-of-date data and stale market prices, which in turn implies unrealiable and dated credit spreads. The problem is heightened by the fact that the derivatives market (such as swaps and FRAs) are OTC based and are traded directly with a bank or prime broker. In addition, the coverage of credit ratings across the South African debt market is poor. This paper illustrates the extent of the illiquidity in the South African debt market (focussing on vanilla bonds) and the adverse effect this lack of trade has on credit spreads. It is the introductory section of a PhD thesis, motivating the need for alternative modelling of credit spreads, which the subsequent chapters of the PhD aim to address.

НАУЧНО-ТЕХНИЧЕСКОЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО В РАМКАХ ЕАЭС КАК ВАЖНЕЙШИЙ ФАКТОР ЛОЯЛЬНОСТИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ СТРАН-УЧАСТНИЦ К ИНТЕГРАЦИОННОМУ ОБЪЕДИНЕНИЮ И ЕГО ПРИТЯГАТЕЛЬНОСТИ ДЛЯ НОВЫХ ЧЛЕНОВ

In the future, the Eurasian Economic Union can become one of the most important actors of the global economy, a regional and even a global leader, if the Union ensures positive economic and social effects for every participating country. The main challenge of the economic development of the EAEU is the development and diversification of national industries: three of the EAEU countries out of five almost completely depend on the export of resources (Russia and Kazakhstan - energy resources, Kyrgyzstan - precious metals). The other challenges for all participating countries are as follows: low competitiveness of production; inadequate development of the transport infrastructure for the current needs of integration; the lack of trade and investment cooperation between different countries; the lack of budget for the program of projects’ co-financing. The international experience proves that the higher the level of national economic development, the greater the share of high-tech industries in its economy, the more diversified its exports, and the greater opportunities the country has to maintain stable cooperation ties and division of labor with countries at different levels of industrial development. The successful realization of cooperation within the EAEU largely depends on the support of the population of participating countries. Despite the fact that according to sociological surveys the attitude of the population to the Eurasian Economic Union is rather positive there is a negative trend. The authors suggest the ways for the innovative modernization of the eco-nomies, which in turn will stimulate scientific-technological cooperation, enhance the level and quality of life, and contribute to the positive public perception of the integration, stability and viability of the EAEU and development of the Eurasian values’ system.

An Assessment of Valuation Methods of Stock Initial Public offerings on Tehran Stock Exchange

Every day hundreds of companies all over the world are entering capital market for the first time by issuing stocks. By doing so, they decide to invest capital necessary for continuing activity and expanding operations accordingly. For this reason, it is important to the companies that price specified for their stock demonstrate real value of assets and their growth and development opportunities in the future. The purpose of this research is to study valuation methods of stock initial public offerings at the Tehran Stock Exchange. Population and study sample consisted of firms publicly offered their stocks for the first time at Tehran Stock Exchange during 2009-2014, and experienced no trading halt, i.e. 45 companies of which seven companies were eliminated due to lack of trading on the stock exchange and 38 firms were chosen. The research method is correlational-descriptive and the research is an applied research by purpose. The research is based on cross-sectional time regression analysis, for which simple multivariate regression estimation based on ordinary least square method was used, and models under consideration were examined by Eviews and SPSS. After analysis of results, the research findings showed that some variables such as firm size have no influence on the price of initial public offering but variables such as risk, size of initial offerings, amount of firm capital, etc. have significant effect on the price of stock initial public offering. In the end, it is recommended that companies price their stocks in the way that it paves the way for growth and development of their assets, given that there are a lot of factors and variables that affect the price of stock initial offering.

Welfare Costs of Informed Trade

In order to address the issue of the welfare costs of informed trade, a new GlostenMilgrom type model is constructed with elastic uninformed trade. Since uninformed trade is elastic, there are some uninformed who choose not to trade because their idiosyncratic valuation lies within the spread. This lack of trade is a welfare loss and the model can be used to estimate the magnitude of the loss. Calculations show that the welfare loss tends to be single-peaked in the amount of informed trade, reaching a maximum at an internal point. That is, after some point, the welfare loss is decreasing in the amount of informed trade because with more informed trade information gets into prices faster and spreads decline. For short term information (information likely to be revealed in a short amount of time) the maximum loss occurs at a very high probability of informed trade meaning that the welfare loss is mostly increasing in informed trade. For longer term information, the maximum occurs at a relatively small probability of informed trade suggesting that over some range welfare loss is actually declining in informed trade.

Block Shareholders and Stock Liquidity in the Indian Stock Market: Lack of Trading or Information Asymmetry?

We study the effect of block shareholding on stock liquidity using panel models for 128 stocks from the period 2011 to 2014. After controlling for the size of the firm, ownership concentration is found to have a small statistically significant negative effect on liquidity. Ownership structure models indicate that block shareholding by Government has a negative effect on liquidity. However, we do not find any statistically significant effects due to block shareholding by individuals and families or foreign or domestic institutions. Lower turnovers of state owned companies may be due to lack of trading rather than information asymmetry or signalling effects.

Table of Contents for Aid for: Trade: An Investment-Benefit Road Map from South Asia

Aid for Trade (AfT) came to prominence just over a decade ago at the launch of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round. With its focus on helping least developed countries and economies escape the poverty trap, it aims to strengthen their capabilities to meet market demand and to reduce supply-side constraints such as a lack of trade infrastructure.In accordance with that objective, this report lays out an applied framework for prioritizing potential trade-related interventions and investments according to the expected strength of their combined economic impacts. Along the way, and for the first time, the economic geography of northeastern South Asia has been comprehensively mapped. Computer-driven modeling provides a dynamic portrayal of the economic geography that is a resource for decision makers (and investors).By bringing to light new avenues yielding very high economic benefits for investment and reforms, the framework can give guidance for undertaking trade improvements under Aid for Trade on pilot projects within a national setting, between neighbors or spread to partners further afield. In all cases, the endeavor is the same: expressed in the metaphor of hard investment, it is to build bridges to export markets so that people in the economic periphery have a better opportunity to take poverty off their own maps.The PDF file does not include the full text of the paper.

EDITORIAL

You are looking at this year’s second issue which is dedicated to the Slovenian national security system, the role of the armed forces within it, and their future. The authors of this issue primarily come from the areas of the military and defence. It may be a coincidence, but the Slovenian national security system, the Slovenian Armed Forces and their future seem to play a less important role in times of solving other more challenging issues and situations. The need for rationality, economy, innovativeness and the achievement of maximum possible impact with minimum resources used is understandable, yet the national security system, as an integral part of international security, may thus become very fragile and vulnerable. The French economist and statesman of the 17th century, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, believed that trade was the source of finance, while finance was the vital nerve of war. Is it possible to assume that the lack of trade, and thus finance, may lead to social unrest and, consequently, the destabilisation of the national security system? Constant cuts in the defence budget should not hinder thinking and writing about the future of the Slovenian national security system and its individual elements which include the defence system and the Slovenian Armed Forces. What are the challen- ges and opportunities? In the introduction, Lieutenant-General Ştefan Dănilă, Chief of the General Staff of the Romanian Armed Forces expresses his views on the Role and use of the armed forces in the future. His thoughts are published at the beginning of this issue to give readers the impression of how the future of the armed forces is viewed in the country about ten times larger than Slovenia. Pavel Vuk, Sašo Nacevski and Renata Vrtovšek address the Defence strategy in the hierarchy of strategic documents on national security of the Republic of Slovenia by carrying out a comparative analysis of defence strategies of six countries and pre- senting guidelines for the preparation of a new defence strategy of the Republic of Slovenia. Gregor Garb devotes his attention to the Role of financial resources in the imple- mentation of a modern security paradigm regarding defence in selected countries. He describes and compares guidelines for the funding of defence systems in five countries – the Republic of Slovenia and its neighbours. Ivan Žnidar acquaints readers with Transformation challenges to safety and security at Slovenian sea. He states that comprehensive approach, cooperation, coordination and integration of various services for safety at sea present some of the answers to the question of the rationalisation of the modern security environment. Boris Rutar presents the Human Terrain System in the case of Afghanistan. He informs readers of achievements and applicability as well as new opportunities for NATO members. Blažka Erznožnik writes about the Importance of security forces training for the stabilisation of Afghanistan: NATO literacy project and the role of the Slovenian Armed Forces. She believes that the elimination of illiteracy presents a perfectly obvious means of support that significantly contributes to the long-term stability of Afghanistan and exposes the social usefulness of the armed forces. To conclude, a country’s stability depends on its financial situation, which in turn affects its defence capability.

Heteroscedasticity and interval effects in estimating beta: UK evidence

The article compares beta estimates obtained from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with estimates corrected for heteroscedasticity of the error term using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models, for 145 UK shares. The differences are mainly less than 0.10, for betas calculated using daily returns, but even such small differences can matter in practice. OLS tends to overestimate the beta coefficients compared with ARCH models, and selecting an ARCH type estimate makes the most difference for large cap shares. Regarding the measurement interval, the downward bias in betas from daily returns is associated with not only thin trading but also the volatility of the share's daily returns. We infer that the idiosyncratic component in daily returns, as well as lack of trading, is responsible for low daily betas.

US and Canadian livestock prices: market integration and trade dependence

Cointegration of Canadian and US livestock prices points to the existence of market integration in the period January 1996 to December 2004. Trade flows of livestock and beef products were nonexistent between Canada and the United States for many months in 2003 and 2004 suggesting market segmentation. This lack of trade in beef and livestock was due to livestock/beef import bans by both countries due to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. It was also determined that Canada's trade dependence in livestock and beef is cointegrated with Canadian and US livestock prices. However, as the trade dependence variable is shocked, the effects on Canadian and US prices are opposite although one would expect that in an integrated market the price responses to an exogenous shock would be similar or statistically identical. This result reinforces the case against the use of price cointegration analysis in determining presence (or absence) of market integration. Empirical results in this article raise some very difficult questions. Gains from trade are well documented. Yet, once a country becomes very trade dependent, the prices in it become much more vulnerable to exogenous shocks that reduce the trade flows.

Model uncertainty and liquidity

Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model such as in derivative markets like the market for mortgage backed securities or credit derivatives. Moreover, the observed behavior of traders and institutions that places a large emphasis on “worst-case scenarios” through the use of “stress testing” and “Value-at-Risk” seems different than Savage expected utility would suggest. In this paper, we capture model-uncertainty using an Epstein and Wang [Epstein, L.G., Wang, T., 1994. Intertemporal asset pricing under Knightian uncertainty. Econometrica 62, 283–322] uncertainty-averse utility function with an ambiguous underlying asset-returns distribution. To explore the connection of uncertainty with liquidity, we specify a simple market where a monopolist financial intermediary makes a market for a propriety derivative security. The market-maker chooses bid and ask prices for the derivative, then, conditional on trade in this market, chooses an optimal portfolio and consumption. We explore how uncertainty can increase the bid–ask spread and, hence, reduces liquidity. Our infinite-horizon example produces short, dramatic decreases in liquidity even though the underlying environment is stationary. We show how these liquidity crises are closely linked to the uncertainty aversion effect on the optimal portfolio. Effectively, the uncertainty aversion can, at times, limit the ability of the market-maker to hedge a position and thus reduces the desirability of trade, and hence, liquidity.

Heteroscedasticity and Interval Effects in Estimating Beta: UK Evidence

The paper compares beta estimates obtained from OLS regression with estimates corrected for heteroscedasticity of the error term using ARCH models, for 145 UK shares. The differences are mainly less than 0.10, for betas calculated using daily returns, but even such small differences can matter in practice. OLS tends to overestimate the beta coefficients compared with ARCH models, and selecting an ARCH-type estimate makes most difference for large-cap shares. Regarding the measurement interval, the downward bias in betas from daily returns is associated not only with thin trading but also with the volatility of the share’s daily returns. We infer that the idiosyncratic component in daily returns, as well as lack of trading, is responsible for low daily betas.

COVER ARTICLE: Eroding Knowledge: An Ethnobotanical Inventory in Eastern Amazonia's Logging Frontier

Responding to the decline of game, fruit and fiber post-logging, communities along the Capim River in Para, Brazil, requested that research be initiated into the value of non-timber forest products. As a first step, an ethnobotanical inventory of one hectare of mature terra firme forest was conducted. The percentage use-values described reflect that Capimenses are knowledgeable about the use of many species (60% of inventoried species); however, active use has declined. Compared to other South American inventories, Capimenses demonstrate a higher degree of trade in timber, a lack of trade in non-timber products, the decreasing use of plants for technological purposes, and the description of the use of many species in the past tense. During the longitudinal study, the 15 most highly valued fruit, nut, game attracting, and medicinal tree species became included in the suite of species extracted by the timber industry.

Model Uncertainty and Liquidity

Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model such as in derivative markets. Asset pricing and trading, in these cases, are intrinsically model dependent. Moreover, the observed behavior of traders and institutions that places a large emphasis on 'worst-case scenarios'' through the use of 'stress testing'' and 'value-at-risk'' seems different than Savage rationality (expected utility) would suggest. In this paper we capture model-uncertainty explicitly using an Epstein-Wang (1994) uncertainty-averse utility function with an ambiguous underlying asset-returns distribution. To explore the connection of uncertainty with liquidity, we specify a simple market where a monopolist financial intermediary makes a market for a propriety derivative security. The market-maker chooses bid and ask prices for the derivative, then, conditional on trade in this market, chooses an optimal portfolio and consumption. We explore how uncertainty can increase the bid-ask spread and, hence, reduces liquidity. In addition, 'hedge portfolios'' for the market-maker, an important component to understanding spreads, can look very different from those implied by a model without Knightian uncertainty. Our infinite-horizon example produces short, dramatic decreases in liquidity even though the underlying environment is stationary.

Transaction Costs: Discussion

Three very different views of the role of transaction costs in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are presented in these papers. Transaction costs distinguish urban from rural, town from surrounding villages, and even the household from the surrounding world.' In the world of CGE modelers, the costs of trading goods from one domain to another has long been a matter for experimentation, either by explicitly including both domains or by means of closure rules. In either case the exact costs of transacting from one sphere to another are rarely known and these costs are often crucially important for assessing the impact of proposed policies. The papers presented today all take transaction costs seriously. To trade or not to trade, that is the question, at least in L6fgren and Robinson's paper. The beginning point here is de Janvry, Fafchamps, and Sadoulet's corollary of the law of the second best. They examine the consequences of missing markets for household behavior. If there is no market for some inputs (e.g., credit or labor), then the household's response to a price increase for farm output might be quite low: How can one produce more outputs if more inputs are not to be had? The assumption is a missing market, and the consequences of missing one market are then worked out. L6fgren and Robinson take a different tact. There are endogenous transaction costs for the household. Because of these transaction costs, households might decide not to trade, or they might sell labor or agricultural output. The observed lack of trading in markets is seen as an endogenous decision of the household. This gives rise to a very different set of responses: At first, response is as in de Janvry, Fafchamps, and Sadoulet-the household's output does not respond to price increase. But, as price rises high enough to overcome the transaction costs, the price response becomes large. In a nutshell, the observation of missing markets does not doom peasant households to be nonprice responsive. The paper is notable both for its exploitation of new practical software for handling the inequality constraints that come with Kuhn-Tucker conditions and for its economic contribution. When there are transaction costs, the decision to trade is endogenous to the model. Taylor, Yunez-Naude, and Dyer look at a different set of transaction costs-those be-

The Establishment of the British Trade Agencies in Tibet: A Survey

The popular image of pre-1950 Tibet is of a remote land seldom visited by outsiders. But more than a hundred British officials served in Tibet during the early part of this century. Between 1904 and 1947 Agents from the Indian Political Service, and supporting staff, were stationed in Gyantse and Yatung, under the control of the Political Officer in Sikkim. An Agency was also maintained at Gartok in Western Tibet, where a native officer was posted as the Trade Agent. After 1936 a mission was stationed at Lhasa. The last British official in Lhasa, Hugh Richardson, departed in 1950 following the Chinese invasion of Tibet. For the British Trade Agents, an almost forgotten section of British colonial administration in Asia, Tibet was an official posting. Their isolation, and the lack of trade, meant that they had the time to study a variety of aspects of Tibet, and to gain a great knowledge of the country and its people.