Lack Of Knowledge Research Articles

Lack of knowledge in structural model validation

This paper deals with the structural modeling of a family of similar, actual structures taking into account uncertainties and modeling errors. Only errors of the “structural stiffness” type are considered. We develop a new theory in which what we call the lack of knowledge (LOK) is defined through an internal variable, whose upper and lower bounds are stochastic, associated with each substructure. Two main questions are discussed: the impact of the basic LOKs on the predicted structural response and the reduction of the basic LOKs through the use of additional information.

"There's no point in complaining, nothing changes": rural disaffection with complaints as an improvement method

To validate earlier findings that lack of access to health services is the most likely issue of complaint by rural consumers, and that lack of knowledge about how to make effective complaints and scepticism that responses to complaints bring about service improvement account for the under-representation of complaints from rural consumers. Unaddressed reply-paid mail survey to 100% of households in small communities, and 50%, 20% or 10% in progressively larger communities. Eight communities in the Loddon-Mallee region of Victoria. 983 householders most responsible for the health care of household members, responding to a mailed questionnaire. Issues of complaints actually made; issues of unsatisfactory situations when a complaint was not made; reasons for not complaining; to whom complaints are made; and plans for dealing with any future complaint. Earlier findings were confirmed. Lack of access to health services was the most important issue, indicated by 54.8% of those who had made a complaint, and 72% of those who wanted to but did not. The most common reason given for not complaining was that it was futile to do so. Lack of knowledge of how to make effective complaints which might contribute to the quality assurance cycle was evident. Rural consumers' disaffection with health complaints as a means to quality improvement poses a significant barrier to consumer engagement in quality assurance processes. Provider practices may need to change to regain community confidence in quality improvement processes.

Selecting Indexes of Electoral Proportionality: General Properties and Relationships

Measuring the proportionality of outcomes in termsof each party's vote and seatshares is an important task in electoral analysis.Various indexes have been designedthat provide a summary statistic of electoralproportionality/disproportionality. Claimsand counter-claims have been made regarding thestrengths and weaknesses of particularindexes. Important consequences follow from thismethodological pluralism. First, it isnot always clear which index has been employedwhen particular electoral outcomesare discussed. Second, recent additions to thelist of indexes have not been thoroughlyscrutinised and appraised. Third, the lack ofknowledge about the general relationshipbetween indexes means that observations might bedifferent had a different index beenused. This article seeks to identify and clarifythe particular properties of different indexesof proportionality. Relatively new, and largelyuntested, indexes of proportionality areexamined and some unusual and potentially damagingproperties are identified. We alsocompare different measures of disproportionality inan effort to specify some generalproperties of the inter-relationships between them.Understanding the particular patternsof electoral competition and vote distributionsthat affect the relationship between thesemeasures should enable users to anticipate theconsequences of preferring one index overothers.

Free trade and cheap theatre: sources of politics forthe nineteenth-century London poor

The very poor and unskilled workers of mid-nineteenth-centuryLondon – often termed the ‘casual poor’ dueto their irregularity of employment – have been generallyportrayed as entirely apolitical, and to have exhibited purely mobresponses to the issues of the day. This article suggests that wehave not properly understood or ‘read’ the evidencewe have of the attitudes towards politics of these people, and thatwe have assessed their actions purely within the framework of ourown understandings. In particular, their views about Chartism, themajor working-class political movement of the period, have beena key to how they have been perceived. But our understanding ofthese views has been distorted by what appeared to be their lackof knowledge of the ‘real’ aims of the movement.Instead, if we look at other types of evidence, such as from thetheatre, we can find clues as to how their understandings of such conflictsmay simply have been different, and so be able to explain in muchmore rational terms the actions and beliefs of this historicallyinarticulate group.

Environmental uncertainty in ocean acoustic source localization

Localization of an acoustic source in the ocean is often limited by lack ofknowledge of the physical properties of the environment, such as seabedgeoacoustic parameters and water-column sound-speed profile (SSP). Quantifyingenvironmental uncertainties and how they transfer to uncertainties for sourcelocalization represent important problems that are addressed in this paperusing Bayesian inference theory. Metropolis Gibbs’ sampling is appliedto estimate the uncertainties for environmental inversion in the form ofmarginal probability distributions, covariances and credibility intervals.Heat-bath sampling is applied to source localization with environmentaluncertainties, with the resulting localization uncertainty quantified interms of the joint marginal probability distribution for source range anddepth (i.e. a probability ambiguity surface). Localization uncertainties areexamined as a function of uncertainties in geoacoustic parameters and SSP.

Virtue theory and ideal observers

Virtue theorists in ethics often embrace the following characterizationof right action: An action is right iff a virtuous agent would performthat action in like circumstances. Zagzebski offers a parallel virtue-basedaccount of epistemically justified belief. Such proposals are severely flawedbecause virtuous agents in adverse circumstances, or through lack ofknowledge can perform poorly. I propose an alternative virtue-based accountaccording to which an action is right (a belief is justified) for an agentin a given situation iff an unimpaired, fully-informed virtuous observerwould deem the action to be right (the belief to be justified).

Justus Liebig and the Plant Physiologists

In his book Organic Chemistryin its Application to Agriculture andChemistry, Justus Liebig attacked ``the plantphysiologists'' for their support of the humustheory and for their general ignorance ofchemistry. Two leading botanists, MatthiasSchleiden and Hugo von Mohl, responded bysharply criticizing Liebig for his lack ofknowledge of plants and his misrepresentationof the views of plant physiologists. The originand character of this debate can be understoodin part through the temperaments of Liebig andSchleiden, but can be viewed also as a contestfor control between the well-establisheddiscipline of chemistry and a potentialdiscipline of plant physiology that had as yetacquired no stable institutional foundations.

The consequential complexity of history and gratuitous evil

History is composed of a web of innumerable interacting causal chains, many of which are composed of millions of discrete events. The complexity of history puts us in a position of having knowledge of only a minuscule portion of the consequences of any event, actual or proposed. Our almost complete lack of knowledge of the data necessary to know if an event is gratuitous makes it very likely that we would be mistaken about a very large number of events. The complexity of history, therefore, poses a significant challenge to certain types of evidential arguments from evil that begin with our observations of evils that appear to be gratuitous.For want of a nail the shoe is lost,For want of a shoe the horse is lost,For want of a horse the rider is lost,And all for the want of a nail.Benjamin Franklin, 1757

Translocation of aggressive Australian magpies: a preliminary assessment of a potential management action

Australian magpies are the cause of a major wildlife-management conflict in suburban areas throughout Australia. Mitigation of this conflict is becoming increasingly difficult in some locations because of community opposition to the destruction of the birds involved, which remains a common management solution of many wildlife agencies. Translocation – the capture and release elsewhere – of offending birds has been advocated but never seriously evaluated. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of translocation as a means of eliminating magpie attacks. We also attempted to assess the impact of the approach on both the translocated birds and those remaining in the territory. A total of 20 aggressive magpies, all males, were captured and released at distances 17–150 km from the place of capture. Most birds released more than 30 km away were not seen again; two birds released less than 30 km away returned quickly and were recaptured. A single bird re-established itself on its original territory several months after capture. In many cases, new males had replaced the captured birds within days. There was no evidence of negative behavioural interactions between these males and the resident females or chicks. While the technique is effective in reducing the human–magpie conflict at specific locations, our lack of knowledge of the fate of translocated males, as well as several other issues, suggests that this approach be used only in extreme circumstances.

Farmworker and Farmer Perceptions of Farmworker Agricultural Chemical Exposure in North Carolina.

Agricultural chemicals pose health risks for farmworkers engaged in cultivating and harvesting crops. In a project to develop culturally appropriate interventions to reduce farmworker exposure to agricultural chemicals, formative research used in-depth interviews and focus groups to elicit beliefs and knowledge about exposure from farmers and migrant and seasonal farmworkers in North Carolina. Farmworkers were concerned about acute effects they attributed to exposure and had little knowledge of long-term effects of low-level exposure. They believe that some individuals are inherently more susceptibility to the health effects of exposure than others; most do not recognize the skin as a site of chemical absorption. They report instances of exposure that reflect the power relationships with fanners, indicating that lackof knowledge is not the only issue that must be addressed in an intervention. Farmers believe that farmworkers are not exposed to chemicals because they do not mix or apply chemicals. Such a belief is consistent with the training received by fanners. The PRECEDE-PROCEED planning model is used to identify predisposing and reinforcing factors on which an effective intervention should focus.

The Hidden Measurement Formalism: What Can Be Explained and Where Quantum Paradoxes Remain

In the hidden measurement formalism that we havedeveloped in Brussels we explain quantum structure asdue to the presence of two effects; (a) a real change ofstate of the system under influence of the measurement and (b) a lack of knowledge abouta deeper deterministic reality of the measurementprocess. We show that the presence of these two effectsleads to the major part of the quantum mechanical structure of a theory describing a physicalsystem, where the measurements to test the properties ofthis physical system contain the two mentioned effects.We present a quantum machine, with which we can illustrate in a simple way how the quantumstructure arises as a consequence of the two effects. Weintroduce a parameter that measures the amount of lackof knowledge on the measurement process, and by varying this parameter, we describe acontinuous evolution from a quantum structure (maximallack of knowledge) to a classical structure (zero lackof knowledge). We show that for intermediate values of∈ we find a new type of structure that isneither quantum nor classical. We analyze the quantumparadoxes in the light of these findings and show thatthey can be divided into two groups: (1) The group(measurement problem and Schrodinger cat paradox) where theparadoxical aspects arise mainly from the application ofstandard quantum theory as a general theory (e.g., alsodescribing the measurement apparatus). This type of paradox disappears in the hiddenmeasurement formalism. (2) A second group collecting theparadoxes connected to the effect of nonlocality (theEinstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox and the violation of Bell's inequalities). We show that theseparadoxes are internally resolved because the effect ofnonlocality turns out to be a fundamental property ofthe hidden-measurement formalism itself.

Historical Memory and the State of Jewish Studies in Germany: Editor's Introduction

Editor's Introduction Historical Memory and the State of Jewish Studies in Germany: Editor's Introduction Dean Phillip Bell Dean Bell studied medieval and early modem European History at the University of Chicago and the University ofCalifornia at Berkeley, where he received his Ph.D. He has taught at Berkeley, the Hebrew Theological College, and the Spertus Institute of Jewish Studies. Currently he works and teaches at DePaul University. His research focuses on the late medieval and early modem history of the Jews in Germany. In his seminal work The Idea ofHistory, R. G. Collingwood argued that the value of history is that "it teaches us what man has done and thus what man is."l History, according to Collingwood, is concerned with both what he called an event's outside-that "which can be described in terms ofbodies and their movements"~and its inside-"that in the event which can only be described in terms of thought."2 Such a distinction between the outside and inside of an event seems particularly applicable to the recent event ofthe "renaissance of Jewish Studies in Germany." Externally, we might ask what is meant by "renaissance of Jewish Studies," what are the scope (subjects, methodologies) and agents (institutions, individuals) of Jewish Studies in Germany? Internally, we might question why it is that Jewish Studies has seemingly become so appealing in the land of the Shoah. A spate ofrecent studies has documented many facets of the history ofthe Jews in Germany since 1945,3 though not as frequently the state ofJewish Studies in Germany.4 lR. G. Collingwood, The Idea ofHistory (Oxford, 1956), here at pp. 9-10. 2Collingwood, The Idea ofHistory, p. 213. 3See, for example, though of vastly different scope and quality: Anson Rabinbach and Jack Zipes, editors, Germans and Jews since the Holocaust (New York, 1986); Dirk Blasius and Dan Diner, editors, Zerbrochene Geschichte: Leben und Selbstverstiindnis der Juden in Deutschland (Frankfurt am Main, 1991); Micha Brumlik, The Situation ofthe Jews in Germany Today (Bloomington, 1991); Sander L. Gilman and Karen Remmler, editors, Reemerging Jewish Culture in Germany: Life and Literature Since 1989 (New York, 1994); Michael Cohn, The Jews in Germany 1945-1993: The Building ofa Minority (London, 1994); Enzo Traverso, The Jews and Germany: From the "JudeoGerman Symbiosis" to the Memory of Auschwitz (Lincoln, 1995); Wolfgang Benz, editor, Antisemitismus in Deutschland: Zur Aktualitiit eines Vorurteils (Munich, 1995); Gunther B. Ginzel, editor, Der Anfang nach dem Ende: Jiidisches Leben in Deutschland 1945 bis heute (Dusseldorf, 1996); Julius H. Schoeps, editor, Ein Volk von Mordern? Die Dokumentation zur GoldhagenKontroverse um die Rolle der Deutschen im Holocaust (Hamburg, 1996); Y. Michal Bodemann, 2 SHOFAR Summer 1997 Vol. 15, No.4 A number of libraries, institutes, and museums, as detailed by Michael Brenner, have been founded to focus upon Jewish issues. Taken together these developments have comprised something ofa renaissance in Jewish Studies in Germany, or have they? The renaissance of Jewish Studies is indebted to the older Wissenschaft des Judentums, though as Margarete Schluter makes clear, it would be presumptuous to' claim that contemporary Jewish Studies in Germany is a direct heir to the flourishing academic study of Judaism in the last decades of the nineteenth and the early decades of the twentieth centuries. Perhaps the greatest difference between these two academic endeavors-that of Wissenschaft des Judentums and the more recent Judaistik or Judische Studien-is that much of the recent scholarship of Judaism is conducted by non-Jews. Ofcourse the relatively small Jewish population in Germany today-ranging wildly between estimates of 40,000 (official) and 100,000 (unofficial) individuals-compounded by the general lack ofknowledge of things Jewish among both Jews and non-Jews, obviously contributes to this situation. The example of the Hochschule rur Jiidische Studien in Heidelberg is, in this light, revealing. The Hochschule was created originally to serve as a training institute for Jewish community professionals but has ended up educating a much more broadly non-Jewish clientele as well. Still, its very success begs a number ofimportant questions. What is the scope of Jewish Studies in Germany? What is the audience for Jewish Studies? How does the study ofJudaism in Germany defme itself and how...

Infra‐red Heating and Food Processing

Highlights the lack of detailed published information on the use of infra‐red heating in food processing in the UK. Provides a number of answers based on conclusions from a recent seminar. These are a reluctance of users to reveal information to their competitors of where it is used, perceived technical problems (some infra‐red heaters contain glass) and fears on energy costs which restrict its wider use and lack of knowledge of the technology by food processing plant manufacturers. Discusses the attributes of infra‐red heating and gives some examples of its use (not all in the UK) for food processing.

Permeability Estimation: The Various Sources and Their Interrelationships

Summary Rock-formation permeability is one important flow parameter associated with subsurface production and injection. Its importance is reflected by the numberof available techniques (well-log evaluation, core measurements, and well testing) typically used to estimate it. The literature is full of comparisons and correlations of permeability from these sources. Too often these comparisons and correlations are used to make important conclusions without proper regard to the interrelationships among them. Permeability estimates by individual techniques within the various permeability sources can vary with the state of rock (in-situ environment), fluid saturation distribution, flow direction, and the scale of the medium under investigation. This paper reviewsthe commercially available permeability-estimation techniques and discusses theimportant factors that illustrate their interrelationships. Knowledge ofappropriate interrelationships among the various techniques allows meaningful permeability comparisons and correlations. Usefulness of the interrelationships is demonstrated with field data. Also, the interrelationship concepts presentedare a cornerstone for reservoir flow characterization. Introduction Of all the formation parameters that petroleum engineers use, permeability is one of the most important. In the oil and gas industry it is used todetermine whether a well should be completed and brought on line. Permeabilityis also essential in overall reservoir management and development (e.g., forchoosing the optimal drainage points and production rate, optimizing completionand perforation design, and devising EOR patterns and injection conditions). Oil and gas companies use both accurate and approximate permeability values. These values frequently are compared and correlated without much attention tohow each value was determined. Such comparisons and correlations are then usedto make important conclusions about formation flow potential and for variousaspects of reservoir management and development. But establishing a correlation between unstressed core plug permeability and drillstem-testing (DST) permeability and then using the correlation with other unstressed core plugpermeabilities to evaluate the flow potential of other zones, for example, maybe futile unless the scale factor, measurement environment, and physics are adequately considered. The scale factor considers the relative size of thevolumes being investigated and the nature of heterogeneity, and the measurementenvironment and physics consider the state of the rock environment, fluid saturation distribution, flow direction, and sensitivity of the measured or inferred variables that constitute permeability calculations. To address the appropriate correlations among techniques, we first define the various permeabilities that are measured by the permeabilities that are measured by thevarious techniques. Permeability Definitions Permeability Definitions The classic definition of permeability, as described by Darcy, is the intrinsic characteristic of amaterial that determines how easily a fluid can pass through it. In the petroleum industry, the darcy is the standard unit of measure for permeability. It represents 1 cm3 of fluid with a viscosity of 1 cp flowing through a 1-cm2cross-sectional area of rock in 1 second under a pressure gradient of 1 atm per1 cm of length in the direction of flow. This intrinsic rock property is called absolute permeability when the rock is 100% saturated permeability when therock is 100% saturated with one fluid phase. Permeability is also measured inreference to a fluid phase when the rock is saturated with a multiple-fluidphase. Such a permeability is the effective permeability of the rock to the particular flowing fluid. (The ratio of effective to absolute permeability isthe relative permeability.) These definitions are simple and straight forward when the measurement is performed in the laboratory. when downhole rockpermeability is measured, however, complications arise because of lack ofknowledge about the downhole environment, the volume, and the measurement method. Almost every discipline within the oil industry has its own definition of permeability. This inconsistency creates a significant problem whenpermeability is to be used problem when permeability is to be used to defme theproduction performance of a particular formation, reservoir, or well.particular formation, reservoir, or well. A core analyst's version ofpermeability may be an accurate representation of the 1-in.-diameter,1-in.-long core sample; however, the measured value may have no significantbearing on the production characteristic of the formation represented by the core sample. The core measures absolute permeability, but formation flow isgoverned by relative permeability. Also, core permeabilities permeability. Also, core permeabilities are influenced by the microscopic nature of themeasurement and the environment (absence of in-situ pressure, temperature, and saturation conditions). At times, a combination of these influences may resultin a permeability that corresponds to the well flow performance, but this ismore a coincidence than a planned result. Similar consequences are observedwhen petrophysicists evaluate permeability with log-measured values. Most logmethods, except the repeat-formation-tester (RFTSM) method, measure absolute permeability. Even though the parameters used to infer permeability from logsare measured at in-situ conditions, the complexity of rock structures and inadequate parameterization make the log less than parameterization make thelog less than derived permeability transforms nonuniversal. JPT P. 578

Harvard Case Histories in Experimental Science Edited by James Bryant Conant and Leonard K. Nash (review)

well as to the transactions ofthe previous conferences. The reader soon realizes that this is more than a textbook account ofshock or a monograph. As he reads, he is observing, as ifon a television screen, experienced investigators sifting the evidence from a given experiment. The data are examined and re-examined, more deeply at each succeeding step. And interspersed throughout the discussion ofshock itselfis material relating to science in general, a notable example being Dr. Knisely's remarks about positive and negative causation. Surely a conference ofthis sort can provide one form ofintroduction to the scientific method, making the book useful to graduate and medical students, who need only a minimal knowledge ofhemodynamics, immunology, and biochemistry in order to understand the material. John F. Perkins, Jr. University ofChicago Harvard Case Histories in Experimental Science. James Bryant Conant, general editor; Leonard K. Nash, associate editor. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1957. 2 vols. Pp. xvi+639. $10.00. In his Introduction to these unique and splendid volumes, Dr. Conant states that they were designed to impart an understanding ofscience to the general reader and, inparticular , to undergraduate students in the humanities and social sciences. He points out that the layman's inability to comprehend scientific thought often stems from ignorance of the nature ofscientific inquiry rather than from lack ofknowledge ofspecific facts or doctrines . Careful observation and controlled experimentation are stressed as the most important characteristics of science, which is defined as "a series of concepts or conceptual schemes arising out ofexperiment and observation and leading to new experiments and new observations." In a simple but profound manner, it is emphasized that the development of modern science can be understood only in terms of the mutual interaction of theory and experiment and ofthe relationship ofadvances in experimental technique to the practical arts. Selected "case histories" of important advances in science are presented to illustrate the "tactics and strategy" peculiar to the experimental investigator. The first case is an account ofBoyle's studies in pneumatics, which is followed by a discussion ofthe experiments ofPriestley and Lavoisier which led to the discovery ofoxygen and to the abandonment ofthe phlogiston theory. The third chapter, prefaced by a succinct, lucid account ofthe evolution ofthe thermometer, deals with the development ofthe concepts oftemperature and heat. The fourth case relates the investigations of Dalton, Gay-Lussac, Dumas, and others which provided the basis ofthe atomic dieory. Early studies on photosynthesis in green plants are then discussed, with special attention to the pioneering ob-, servations ofIngen-Housz and Senebier. Two chapters are concerned with Pasteur's discoveries on fermentation and spontaneous generation. The book concludes with a history ofthe experimental foundation ofthe concept ofelectric charge. Following a short introduction , each case consists ofextensive quotations from the original texts, interspersed at frequent intervals with comments on the more salient points. Some chapters contain short reviews ofmore recent advances, in order that the investigations cited can be related 250 Book Reviews Perspectives in Biology and Medicine · Winter 1939 to contemporary understanding of the problem—particularly well exemplified by the outline ofsome elementary principles ofbiochemistry in the discussion ofPasteur's study of fermentation. Appended to each chapter is a helpful bibliography and in some cases a series ofpenetrating questions. Science impinges on so many aspects ofour lives that it is essential for the intelligent layman to be conversant with the type ofthinking used in the laboratory. This presentation of major scientific advances in their historical context conveys in an unambiguous manner the essentials of the scientific method as well as the excitement which accompanies great discoveries. Although this fine work is intended primarily for the general public, it will be ofundoubted value for every student and practitioner ofscience. H. Guy Williams-Ashman University ofChicago 251 ...