Labour Market Trajectories Research Articles

Where Do All the STEM Graduates Go? Higher Education, the Labour Market and Career Trajectories in the UK

Problems with the supply of highly skilled science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) workers have been reported by employers and governments for many decades, in the UK, the USA, and elsewhere. This paper presents some key findings from a project funded by the Nuffield Foundation that examined patterns of education and employment among STEM graduates in the UK. Five large-scale secondary datasets—comprising administrative, survey, cross-sectional and longitudinal data—were analysed in order to provide the most comprehensive account possible. The findings suggest that there is no overall shortage of STEM graduates but there is considerable variation in the career outcomes and trajectories of different groups. Recruitment to STEM degrees has stalled over the past 20 years but most STEM graduates never work in highly skilled STEM jobs—in any case, the majority of professional STEM workers do not have (or presumably need) degrees. Some groups of STEM graduates are currently under-represented in the highly skilled STEM workforce and increased recruitment from these groups could grow the numbers entering STEM occupations. However, employers may have to modify their views on exactly what constitutes a valuable or desirable employee and to what extent it is their responsibility to train their workers.

Labor market and health trajectories during periods of economic recession and expansion in the United States, 1988‒2011.

Objectives We examined associations between labor market and health (LM-H) trajectories in the United States between 1988 and 2011 and whether associations differed across macroeconomic expansion/recession periods. Methods Working-age cohorts, derived from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics, were followed over time to characterize LM-H trajectories. Poisson regression provided relative risks (RR) with robust 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between trajectories, adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables. Results LM trajectories ending in unemployment (RR 1.7‒2.5 across periods) or inactivity (RR 2.3-3.2) had a greater risk of worsening health trajectories, compared to stable employment. In contrast, RR for individuals returning to work following an intermediary period of unemployment/inactivity were attenuated across most periods. Stable-employed individuals had the highest probability of remaining in good health, whereas trajectories ending in unemployment or inactivity had the lowest probability. These overall relationships were consistent across macroeconomic periods. Conclusions We found strong and consistent relationships between LM-H trajectories across macroeconomic periods. The attenuated (but not eliminated) risk among individuals returning to work following a period of unemployment/inactivity suggests that health outcomes are not only dependent on the LM end-state, but also on the distinct pattern over time.

Internal migration over young adult life courses: Continuities and changes across cohorts in West Germany

Abstract This study examines internal migration as part of unfolding life courses, scrutinizing stability and change across socio-historical contexts from post-war Germany. We inquire whether the structure of family and labour market life courses intersect with migration experience in early adult ages for men and women born around 1939–41, 1949–51, 1964 and 1971. We then establish how recent changes in the transition to adulthood are reflected in the life courses of internal migrants. We accomplish this using exploratory mining of event histories on retrospective monthly records of life events occurring between ages 16 and 30 from the West German samples of the German Life History Study. Our descriptive analyses reveal that the structure of young adults’ life courses intersects with internal migration experience. Differences in the life courses of movers and stayers have increased across socio-historical periods, and are more apparent in the labour market trajectory than in the family trajectory. Diversity in internal migrants’ trajectories reflect the complex ways in which young adults negotiate life courses, and align with the generalized protraction of school-to-work transitions and the delay of family projects. Our research adds to recent studies that underline the value of situating migration events in the wider biographical and structural contexts. Findings contribute to map in efficient ways the full complexity of individual life courses.

A longitudinal analysis of resource mobilisation among forced and voluntary return migrants in Mexico

ABSTRACTThe rise in U.S. deportations has resulted in a growing number of studies focused on the reintegration experiences of these migrants in their home communities. Based on interviews with deportees shortly after their arrival home, these studies paint a picture of economic gloom, finding that deportees are too frequently stigmatised by governments and employers and consequently unemployed or working on the margins of their home economies. In contrast, our longitudinal and comparative study, which draws on the findings of 93 deported and voluntary migrants in Leon, Mexico, finds convergence in the labour market trajectories and social mobility outcomes of deportees and non-deportees, which reduces initial labour market disparities over time. We found that deportation can stymie migrants’ initial labour market re-entry, often relegating former migrants to undesirable jobs in the informal labour market, while they re-familiarise themselves with their local labour markets and identify promising opportunities. Yet, in the long run, successful reintegration depends primarily on the acquisition and mobilisation of human and financial capital across the migratory circuit.

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF SELF-EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIOECONOMIC MOBILITY AMONG RETURN MIGRANTS: THE CASE OF URBAN MEXICO.

Return migrants engage in high rates of self-employment, which scholars commonly attribute to the accumulation of financial and human capital while working abroad. Central to this scholarship is the assumption that self-employment is positive and leads to upward economic mobility among return migrants. This scholarship is limited, however, because it relies on large surveys and cross-sectional census data that treat self-employment as a single uni-dimensional status measured at one point in time. To improve conceptualization and measurement of self- employment, we engage three bodies of research that have thus far had little cross-fertilization: the literature on work and self-employment in Latin America, the scholarship on return migration and self-employment, and developments in economic theories of international migration. Drawing on results from the first longitudinal analysis of the labor market trajectories of Mexican return migrants in a large urban area in central Mexico, we identify three types of self-employment - survivalist, temporary, and prosperous. To explain these divergent self-employment pathways, we draw on biographical narratives and identify two sets of mechanisms - human capital formation and life-course stage. Overall, our investigation of self-employment types suggests a complex relationship between international migration experiences and the labor market mobility of return migrants which cannot be understood without taking into consideration migrants' social and economic circumstances before, during, and after migration. Consequently, our study yields insights into economic theories of international migration and provides direction for future research on return migration and labor market reintegration.

Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

The United States stands out among advanced economies with marked declines in labor force participation. National averages furthermore conceal considerable within-country heterogeneity. This paper explores regional differences to shed light on drivers of participation rates at the state and metropolitan area levels. It documents a broad-based decline, especially pronounced outside metropolitan areas. Using novel measures of local vulnerability to trade and technology it finds that metropolitan areas with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring experienced larger drops in participation in 2000-2016. Thus, areas with different occupational mixes can experience divergent labor market trajectories as a result of trade and technology.

Is Quick Formal Access to the Labor Market Enough? Refugees' Labor Market Integration in Belgium

This paper examines the labor market trajectories of refugees who arrived in Belgium between 2003 and 2009. Belgium has offered relatively easy formal labor market access to refugees but they face many other barriers in its strongly regulated and institutionalized labor market. Using the Belgian Labour Force Survey linked to longitudinal administrative data, we estimate event history models to compare refugees' entry into and exit out of the first employment, contrasting their outcomes with family and labor migrants of the same arrival cohort. The analysis shows that refugees take significantly longer to enter their first employment as compared to other migrant groups. They also run a greater risk of exiting out of their first employment into unemployment and (back) into social assistance. The results suggest that quick formal access clearly does not suffice for sustainable integration in the labor market. Additional education and labor market measures appear needed to enhance a more durable integration.

Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

The United States stands out among advanced economies with marked declines in labor force participation. National averages furthermore conceal considerable within-country heterogeneity. This paper explores regional differences to shed light on drivers of participation rates at the state and metropolitan area levels. It documents a broad-based decline, especially pronounced outside metropolitan areas. Using novel measures of local vulnerability to trade and technology it finds that metropolitan areas with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring experienced larger drops in participation in 2000-2016. Thus, areas with different occupational mixes can experience divergent labor market trajectories as a result of trade and technology.

The class attainment and the career mobility of southern italians in northern Italy and in west Germany. A comparison between internal and international migrants

Abstract This paper studies the class attainment of a single group of migrants, the Southern Italians, to two destinations: Northern Italy and West Germany. It analyses whether the labour market trajectories vary among institutional contexts or follow the same integration pathway across different receiving societies. In doing so, this study expands the literature in two directions. On the one hand, it stresses the importance of macro-features of the host society for studying migrants' integration processes. On the other hand, it highlights similarities and differences between internal and international migration. The paper reports empirical analyses based on the Longitudinal Survey on Italian Households (ILHS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). The results show that the inclusion of Southern migrants, both internal and international, took place at lower levels of the class structure. The greater rigidity and the strong emphasis on vocational training of the German labour market pushed Southern migrants into the unskilled urban working class. In Northern Italy, by contrast, the possibility of entering the public sector facilitated their inclusion in the middle classes. Despite those differences, in both destinations, Southern migrants had fewer opportunities of upward social mobility than the native population.

Domestic responsibilities as predictors of labour market attachment trajectories in men and women

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse whether high responsibility for housework or childcare is related to weak labour market attachment.Design/methodology/approachSurvey data on domestic responsibilities in 1998 and 2003 were linked to register data on respondents’ employment spells for 2004-2011. Effects of the responsibilities on labour market trajectories – identified with latent class growth analyses – were analysed with multinomial logistic regression analyses.FindingsFour trajectories for labour market attachment were identified among both genders. When adjusted for prior labour market attachment and other control variables, a high responsibility for housework predicted weak labour market attachment, compared to the trajectory of strong attachment, only among men. Compared to the trajectory of strengthening attachment, a high responsibility for housework was related to weak attachment among both men and women.Research limitations/implicationsPersonal orientations may, to some extent, explain both the division on domestic responsibilities and attachment to the labour market. In the Finnish type of welfare state, domestic responsibilities have long-term effects, especially on men’s careers. More attention should be given to men’s roles in families and their possible consequences.Originality/valueThis is the first study analysing the division of domestic responsibilities on later labour market attachment among both genders. The strength of this study is the long follow-up time and methodology; it combines survey data at two time points and register data on employment spells over eight years, identifying patterns in employment with latent class growth analyses.

Parental leave uptake among migrant and native mothers: Can precarious employment trajectories account for the difference?

Family policies such as parental leave schemes increasingly support the work–family balance. Low maternal employment in migrant populations raises questions on family policy uptake among mothers of migrant origin. This study documents differences in parental leave uptake between native and migrant mothers of different origin groups and generations, and assesses the extent to which precarious employment trajectories can account for these differentials. Using longitudinal data from Belgian social security registers, mixed-effects logit models of leave uptake, full-time or part-time leave uptake and the labour market position following leave are estimated for 10,976 mothers who entered parenthood between 2004 and 2010. Results indicate that uptake of parental leave is lower among mothers of migrant origin, since they fail to meet the eligibility criteria as a result of being overrepresented in unstable labour market positions. Whereas differential leave uptake can be accounted for by non-universal eligibility and precarious labour market trajectories, migrant-native differentials in part-time uptake and labour market positions following leave persist when controlling for pre-birth employment characteristics. The differential pattern of leave uptake among first-generation migrant women, in particular, is not explained by pre-birth employment characteristics, as they remain overrepresented in full-time leave, and first-generation mothers of non-European origin more frequently retreat from the labour force following leave. We conclude that difficult access to stable employment and non-universal eligibility are major factors explaining migrant-native differentials in parental leave use. As such, Belgian parental leave policies perpetuate labour market disadvantages by limiting support for work–family reconciliation to those already established in the labour force.

All precarious? Institutional change and turning points in labour market trajectories in Spain

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of changes in employment regulation in Spain on individual labour market trajectories. It is well known that the Spanish labour market has been strongly hit by the 2007 recession. Furthermore, after 2010 and in the benchmark of “austerity”, several reforms were implemented to further flexibilise employment regulation. At the same time, public sector budgets suffered severe cutbacks, that impacted working conditions and prospects of public sector workers. These reforms were implemented by different governments and substantially changed previous existing patterns of employment. This paper explains how these reforms have reinforced previous existing trends towards greater flexibility and weaker employment protection and how they lead to a shift in the position of work in society.Design/methodology/approachThe emerging patterns that these changes provoked are illustrated thorough data from narrative biographies of workers affected by a job loss or a downgrading of working conditions. The workers of the sample had relatively stable positions and careers and were affected by changes that substantially modified their paths.FindingsThe paper shows how reforms have expanded work and employment insecurities and have broken career paths. It demonstrates how the reforms have weakened the position of work and organised labour in society and how, when institutional supports are jeopardised, the capacity to plan and act is harassed by the traditional social inequalities.Originality/valueThe paper enhances the knowledge about the impact of institutional changes by analysing their effects in individual working lives by means of narrative biographies.

Effectiveness of Active Labor Market Tools in Conditional Cash Transfers Programs: Evidence for Argentina

Summary This paper examines the impact of the program Seguro de Capacitacion y Empleo (SCE) implemented to provide support in skills upgrading, job seeking, and job placement to eligible beneficiaries of the Argentinian conditional cash transfer program Plan Jefes. The SCE is an example of a growing trend observed in Latin America, where labor activation components have been increasingly included into cash transfers programs to support beneficiaries in finding more stable income opportunities. Despite this growing trend, not enough is known regarding the effectiveness of these components, especially on job quality. In this context, this paper sheds light on whether the provision of a comprehensive package of active labor market measures contributes to a successful labor market integration of cash transfers beneficiaries. Taking advantage of the panel structure of the Permanent Household Survey and exploiting the time variation in the assignment of the program as identification strategy, we apply difference-in-difference estimators to measure the impact on a number of labor market indicators. We find that the program affects positively the job quality of participants by increasing the probability of having a formal job and raising hourly wages. Moreover, the intervention is associated with a lower probability of having a low-paid job and working an excessive number of hours. These effects are, however, not homogeneous across all groups of participants. While the program is more successful among the younger beneficiaries, it does not contribute to an improvement in the labor market conditions of female beneficiaries, who in fact are the majority of SCE participants. Our results suggest that reducing dependency on monetary transfers through programs, such as the SCE, that are rich in activation components is beneficial for participants’ labor market trajectories and therefore, it constitutes a satisfactory exit strategy to more universal cash transfer programs.

Preferences and Biases in Educational Choices and Labour Market Expectations: Shrinking the Black Box of Gender

Standard observed characteristics explain only part of the differences between men and women in education choices and labor market trajectories. Using an experiment to derive students’ levels of overconfidence, and preferences for competitiveness and risk, this paper investigates whether these behavioral biases and preferences explain gender differences in college major choices and expected future earnings. In a sample of high ability undergraduates, we find that competitiveness and overconfidence, but not risk aversion, is systematically related with expectations about future earnings: individuals who are overconfident and overly competitive have significantly higher earnings expectations. Moreover, gender differences in overconfidence and competitiveness explain about 18% of the gender gap in earnings expectations. These experimental measures explain as much of the gender gap in earnings expectations as a rich set of control variables, including test scores and family background, and they are poorly proxied by these same control variables, underscoring that they represent independent variation. While expected earnings are related to college major choices, the experimental measures are not related with college major choice.

Understanding older adults’ labour market trajectories: a comparative gendered life course perspective

The recent push to keep older adults in the labour force glosses over who is likely to follow what kind of employment trajectory and why. In this paper, we broaden understandings of later-life labour market involvement by applying a comparative gendered life course perspective. Our data come from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and the Health and Retirement Study (US), two representative panel studies of individuals aged 50-plus. Using a unique modeling strategy, we examine employment biographies for older women and men from four nations with diverse policy regimes (Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the US), along with their links to family experiences and earlier attachment to the labour force. We find that, in every nation, women prevail in groups representing a weak(er) attachment to the labour market and men in groups signifying a strong(er) attachment. However, this pattern is much stronger for Germany and Italy than for Sweden and the US. Similarly, both family experiences and prior employment matter more for later-life labour market involvement in Germany and Italy. Our findings demonstrate that older adults’ employment trajectories are gendered; moreover, there is evidence that they are influenced by policies related not only to paid work but also to caregiving, and by those affecting not only current decisions but also those made earlier in the life course.

Is sheltered employment more stable than ordinary employment?

Sheltered Employment Centres are a key component of policies promoting the employment of people with disabilities in Spain. The firms involved form a sort of 'protected' labour market for people with disabilities. Their purpose is to provide employment opportunities for people with disabilities who have difficulties entering the 'ordinary' labour market. The aim in this article is to analyse whether workers with disabilities enjoy greater stability in sheltered employment centres than in ordinary firms. Using data from the Longitudinal Sample of Working Lives, which includes information about the labour market trajectory of Spanish workers, survival models are employed to analyse the duration of employment periods of workers with disabilities. Workers in sheltered employment centres are compared to workers in ordinary firms. Results confirm that employment in SECs is more stable than in ordinary firms, even after controlling for the effects of other variables such as sex, age, level of qualifications and characteristics of the firms. Employment in SEC provides to workers with disability a more stable career path with lower turnover than working in ordinary firms. More research is needed to consider other working conditions such as wages and promotion possibilities.

Precarious employment is a risk factor for poor mental health in young individuals in Sweden: a cohort study with multiple follow-ups.

BackgroundThe globalisation of the economy and the labour markets has resulted in a growing proportion of individuals who find themselves in a precarious labour market situation, especially among the young. This pertains also to the Nordic countries, despite their characterisation as well developed welfare states with active labour market policies. This should be viewed against the background of a number of studies, which have shown that several aspects of precarious employment are detrimental to mental health. However, longitudinal studies from the Nordic region that examine the impact of precarious labour market conditions on mental health in young individuals are currently lacking. The present study aims to examine this impact in a general cohort of Swedish young people.MethodsPostal questionnaires were sent out in 1999/2000 to a stratified random sample of the Scania population, Sweden; the response rate was 58 %. All of those who responded at baseline were invited to follow-ups after 5 and 10 years. Employment precariousness was determined based on detailed questions about present employment, previous unemployment, and self-rated risk of future unemployment. Mental health was assessed by GHQ-12. For this study individuals in the age range of 18–34 years at baseline, who were active in the labour market (employed or seeking job) and had submitted complete data from 1999/2000, 2005, and 2010 on employment precariousness and mental health status, were selected (N = 1135).ResultsForty-two percent of the participants had a precarious employment situation at baseline. Labour market trajectories that included precarious employment in 1999/2000 or 2005 predicted poor mental health in 2010: the incidence ratio ratio was 1.4 (95 % CI: 1.1–2.0) when excluding all individuals with mental health problems at baseline and adjusting for age, gender, social support, social capital, and economic difficulties in childhood. The population attributable fraction regarding poor mental health in the studied age group was 18 %.ConclusionsThis study supported the hypothesis that precarious employment should be regarded as an important social determinant for subsequent development of mental health problems in previously mentally healthy young people.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3358-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Labour market trajectories following sickness absence due to self-reported all cause morbidity--a longitudinal study.

BackgroundTo investigate differences in return to work (RTW) and employment trajectories in individuals on sick leave for either mental health reasons or other health related reasons.MethodsThis study was based on 2036 new sickness absence cases who completed a questionnaire on social characteristics, expectations for RTW and reasons for sickness absence. They were divided into two exposure groups according to their self-reported sickness absence reason: mental health reasons or other health reasons. The outcome was employment status during the following 51 weeks and was measured both as time-to-event analysis and with sequence analysis.ResultsIndividuals with mental health reasons for sickness absence had a higher risk of not having returned to work (RR 0.87 (0.80;0.93)). Adjusting for gender, age, education and employment did not change the estimate, however, after adding RTW expectations to the model, the excess risk was no longer present (RR 1.01 (0.95;1.08)). In relation to the sequence analysis, individuals with mental health related absence had significantly higher odds of being in the sickness absence cluster and significantly lower odds for being in the fast RTW cluster, but when adjusting for RTW expectations, the odds were somewhat attenuated and no longer significant.ConclusionsEmployees on sick leave due to self-reported mental health problems spent more weeks in sickness absence and temporary benefits and had a higher risk of not having returned to work within a year compared to employees on sick leave due to other health reasons. The difference could be explained by their lower RTW expectations at baseline. This emphasises the need to develop suitable and specific interventions to facilitate RTW for this group of sickness absentees.

In-work poverty and labour market trajectories: Poverty risks among the working population in 22 European countries

Is in-work poverty a low-wage or an unemployment problem, and is it the same problem all across Europe? Because of the definitional ambiguity, we really do not know. In this article, we use longitudinal European Union-Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data from 22 countries and derive a set of distinct clusters of labour market trajectories (LMTs) from information about monthly labour market position from a 36-month observation window and estimate in-work poverty risk for each LMT. The results show that in-work poverty is a problem that affects the self-employed and people in a marginal labour market position, that is, those who for different reasons move in and out of employment. Hence, in-work poverty is mainly an unemployment problem, not a low-wage problem. Besides the fact that the size of LMTs varies between countries, we also expected to find systematic country differences in the effect of LMTs. The analysis did not support that assumption.

Pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories: the role of catastrophic events

People affected by substance use disorders often experience sub-optimal employment outcomes. The role of drug use in processes that produce and entrench labour market precarity among people who inject drugs (PWID) have not, however, been fully described. We recruited 22 PWID from ongoing prospective cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada, with whom we conducted semi-structured retrospective interviews and then employed a thematic analysis that drew on concepts from life course theory to explore the mechanisms and pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories. The participants' narratives identified processes corresponding to causation, whereby suboptimal employment outcomes led to harmful drug use; direct selection, where impairment, health complications or drug-seeking activities selected individuals out of employment; and indirect selection, where external factors, such as catastrophic events, marked the initiation or intensification of substance use concurrent with sudden changes in capacities for employment. Catastrophic events linking negative transitions in both drug use and labour market trajectories were of primary importance, demarcating critical initiation and transitional events in individual risk trajectories. These results challenge conventional assumptions about the primacy of drug use in determining employment outcomes among PWID and suggest the importance of multidimensional support to mitigate the initiation, accumulation and entrenchment of labour market and drug-related disadvantage.