Labor Market Data Research Articles

A Joint Model for Longitudinal and Time-to-event Data in Social and Life Course Research: Employment Status and Time to Retirement

Longitudinal studies including a time-to-event outcome in social research often use a form of event history analysis to analyse the influence of time-varying endogenous covariates on the time-to-event outcome. Many standard event history models however assume the covariates of interest to be exogenous and inclusion of an endogenous covariate may lead to bias. Although such bias can be dealt with by using joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes, these types of models are underused in social research. In order to fill this gap in the social science modelling toolkit, we introduce a novel Bayesian joint model in which a multinomial longitudinal outcome is modelled simultaneously with a time-to-event outcome. The methodological novelty of this model is that it concerns a correlated random effects association structure that includes a multinomial longitudinal outcome. We show the use of the joint model on Danish labour market data and compare the joint model to a standard event history model. The joint model has three advantages over a standard survival model. It decreases bias, allows us to explore the relation between exogenous covariates and the longitudinal outcome and can be flexibly extended with multiple time-to-event and longitudinal outcomes.

Developing strong transition‐focused IEPS using labour market data

Employment rates and post‐school transition outcomes for individuals with disabilities remain alarmingly low compared to peers without disabilities. Transition‐Focused Individualized Education Plans (TF‐IEPs) often centre on skills associated with employment experience opportunities that are immediately available to the individual with a disability. While the transition plans focus on the student's strengths and areas of interest, less attention is paid to the guidance and support a student might need in choosing a sustainable career. We contend that teams must develop transition plans with specific attention to projected labour market data. Using this information will ensure that we are preparing students with disabilities for long‐term success. This article describes how school teams can use an in‐depth labour market analysis to develop robust transition plans. These plans will prepare students for careers that will last far into the future.

Macroeconomic, intersectoral, and environmental effects of R&D subsidies in Chile: An input-output approach

The present study simulates subsidies to the R&D in Chile with an intersectoral approach known as the Leontief price model. For this, it has been used information from the Input-Output Tables (IOT), R&D expenditures at the sector level collected from the Survey of R&D Expenditure and Research Personnel, and labor market data available from the National Socioeconomic Characterization Survey. Thus, the official IOT data are broken down into new sectors to represent monetary transactions carried out by the R&D sector. Then, it is possible to obtain changes on macroeconomic, intersectoral, and environmental variables for different subsidy rates throughout the simulations performed with the model. The results show that an increase in R&D subsidies reduces the prices slightly and increases production, employment, and emissions at the sectoral level. Additionally, it is determined that the fiscal expenditure required to finance this subsidy is greater than the stimulus on national production. Finally, it can be concluded that the positive effects appear to be more relevant than negative impacts, so it is recommended to increase the rate of R&D subsidy in the country according to the availability of fiscal resources.

Welfare Resilience at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Selection of European Countries: Impact on Public Finance and Household Incomes.

This paper assesses the impact on household incomes of the COVID‐19 pandemic and governments’ policy responses in April 2020 in four large and severely hit EU countries: Belgium, Italy, Spain and the UK. We provide comparative evidence on the level of relative and absolute welfare resilience at the onset of the pandemic, by creating counterfactual scenarios using the European tax‐benefit model EUROMOD combined with COVID‐19‐related household surveys and timely labor market data. We find that income poverty increased in all countries due to the pandemic while inequality remained broadly the same. Differences in the impact of policies across countries arose from four main sources: the asymmetric dimension of the shock by country, the different protection offered by each tax‐benefit system, the diverse design of discretionary measures and differences in the household level circumstances and living arrangements of individuals at risk of income loss in each country.

The asymmetric role of crime in women's and men's labour force participation: Evidence from India

Increased crime incidents, particularly crime against women, raise security concerns and increase the non-pecuniary cost of travelling, thus deterring women from working away from their dwelling. This raises the possibility that if crime reduces women's labour force participation, men may compensate for the loss of income by increasing their participation in the labour force. Therefore, an increase in crime can explain and exacerbate the existing gender gaps in labour force participation. We investigated the possible asymmetric impact of crime on the labour force participation rates of men and women in India. We combined labour market data from NSS surveys on employment and unemployment and crime statistics from the National Crime Records Bureau for a panel of India's 571 districts from 2000 to 2012. We found that men's labour force participation increased or remained unimpacted by an increase in crime, while an increase in crime decreased women's labour force participation, especially in work away from their residence. These contrasting effects of crime on labour force participation rates are robust to fixed and between effects across districts, the dynamic nature of the relationship between variables, and heterogeneity in the data.

Teachers on the Market: A Typology of Teacher Applicants’ Missions, Visions, and Values

This study develops, validates, and applies a teacher applicant typology using labor market data. We construct our typology by applying a correlated topic model to 11,000 personal statements teachers submitted as part of their applications for open positions in Wisconsin public schools between 2015 and 2017. We identify seven types of teacher applicants active on the labor market: Inclusivists, Idealists, Nurturers, Generalists, Classroom Experts, Guides, and External Experts. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, we explore trends within and among types as well as demographic relationships, labor market behavior, and hiring results. This research provides novel insights into the missions, visions, and values of teacher applicants, links these characteristics to their job market preferences, and provides a sound psychometric foundation for these measures of teacher type to be applied in subsequent research.

Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.

This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity. The methodology combines labor market data with simulation of an agent-based model. We apply our methodology to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. We recover the model parameters from observed data, taking into account the recurring policy adjustments that characterized the study window. The model is used to build counterfactual scenarios. We estimate an 8 percent output loss in the first 5 months of the pandemic from the policy that was put in place, achieving a 56 percent reduction in the total number of infections. During this period, with an output loss to 10.5 percent of GDP, the infection rate would have decreased 92 percent, significantly delaying the spread of COVID and spike in infections. Our methodology applied to real data provided results that could be valuable in guiding policies in other lockdown situations in times of disaster, pandemics or social upheaval.

Sub-national union coverage and the youth's labor market outcomes: evidence from a national survey in Vietnam

PurposeThis paper examines the effects of sub-national union coverage on the youth's labor market outcomes.Design/methodology/approachIn the context of the private business sector in Vietnam, this study link individual labor market data with union coverage at provincial level in the period 2013–2016 to investigate the effects of sub-national union coverage on the youth's labor market outcomes. Contingent on the outcome variable, we use the OLS and probit model that control for diverse individual characteristics, year- and industry-fixed effects, and particularly control for selection bias in the labor market.FindingsThe empirical results show that the union coverage is positively associated with a wide range of the youth's labor market outcomes, including employment status, wage rate, work hour, and job formality. Also, the coverage is complementary to individual labor contract in determining the youth's wage rate.Practical implicationOur empirical results indicate positive associations between union coverage and the youth's multi-dimensional labor market outcomes, which contribute to this young age cohort's smooth school-to-work transition, provided that the role of trade union is challenged both in developing and developed countries.Originality/valueThis study provides an in-depth study on the interplay between trade union and the youth's labor market outcomes that contributes to the literature of labor market institutions and youth employment policies in a dynamic transitional economy of Vietnam.

Economic Risk within the Household and Voting for the Radical Right

ABSTRACTThis article investigates how unemployment risk within households affects voting for the radical right. The authors contribute to recent advances in the literature that have highlighted the role of economic threat for understanding the support of radical-right parties. In contrast to existing work, the authors do not treat voters as atomistic individuals; they instead investigate households as a crucial site of preference formation. Combining largescale labor market data with comparative survey data, they confirm the expectations of their theoretical framework by demonstrating that the effect of occupational unemployment risk on radical-right support is strongly conditioned by household-risk constellations. Voting for the radical right is a function not only of a voter’s own risk, but also of his or her partner’s risk. The article provides additional evidence on the extent to which these effects are gendered and on the mechanisms that link household risk and party choice. The results imply that much of the existing literature on individual risk exposure potentially underestimates its effect on political behavior due to the neglect of multiplier effects within households.

Nonlinear Unemployment Effects of the Inflation Tax

<ns3:p>We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks – productivity and monetary – and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the U.S. postwar labor market and monetary data, and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.</ns3:p>

A qualitative study of fourteen African countries' nursing workforce and labour market.

The aim of this study was to describe factors affecting nursing education and labour markets in countries in East, Central, and Southern Africa, and critical areas for investment. An understanding about the relationship between the supply of nurses (determined by types of educational programmes, and the quantity and quality of nurse graduates), and workforce demand is critical to health policy development. Six focus groups and 14 key informant interviews with nursing leaders and experts were conducted. Participants included government chief nursing officers, registrars of regulatory bodies, association leaders and heads of nursing education. The data were transcribed, coded and analysed using inductive techniques. Participants discussed challenges and strengths of nursing education, school and regulatory infrastructure, financing mechanisms for the nursing workforce, the state of nursing jobs and scope of nursing practice. Strengthened regulations and leadership are needed to improve investment in nursing, the quality of nursing education, and working conditions and to promote the achievement of better health outcomes. Clarifying scope of practice for nurses in the health sector and creating competency-based requirements is important. Governments should establish positions that align with updated competencies and provide fair and safe working conditions. The current and ongoing investment case for nursing requires improved data systems and a commitment to use labour market data for decision-making.

Search Frictions and Evolving Labour Market Dynamics

This paper puts Search Frictions models under novel empirical scrutiny. To capture changing dynamics, we fit a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR to US labour market data from 1965–2016. Using a DSGE model with Search Frictions, we identify several structural shocks, including a shock to worker bargaining power that we name a wage shock. We argue that the wage shock is a key driver of cyclical variation, explaining a higher proportion of the variation of these variables than productivity, demand or job separation shocks. We also document stark differences between empirical and theoretical impulse response functions that cast doubt on the core transmission mechanism of search and matching models.

New patterns in the position of CEE countries in global value chains: functional specialisation approach

Research background: High servitisation of manufacturing makes it impossible to separate services from manufactured goods properly, which implies difficulties in the assessment of the position of the country on the smile curve, i.e. in the proper assignment of products or services to one of the industrial process steps: pre-production, pure fabrication or post-production services. Therefore, we propose to use the business functions of industries identified with the aid of labour market data rather than the industrial classification of products in order to create a more appropriate measure of the position of countries in GVCs.
 Purpose of the article: We aim to identify and analyse the patterns of functional specialisation for eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) ? the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia ? both at the country and industry level. In addition, we analyse functional specialisation patterns for Germany, which serves as a reference country.
 Methods: To assess functional specialisation patterns, we employ the methodology proposed by Timmer et al. (2019a). It allows us to obtain functional specialisation indices for four different business functions ? management, R&D, marketing, and fabrication. To compute them, we combine two sources of data ? domestic value added from decomposed sectoral input-output tables (the World Input Output Database) and the Occupations Database built up by Timmer et al. (2019a).
 Findings & value added: Our research shows a very heterogeneous pattern in CEEC countries' position in GVCs by taking into account their functional specialisation at the countries and industries levels. Poland and Slovakia focus primarily on low value-added fabrication processes, the Baltic countries and Slovenia specialise in management services, Hungary and Latvia gain in marketing services, and the Czech Republic and Slovenia win in R&D activities. We indicate that some CEE countries (Poland, Slovakia) could be stuck in a functional trap, and our approach could be a valuable tool for assessing the process of coming out of it.

COVID-19 impact on SADC labour markets: Evidence from high-frequency data and other sources.

We assess the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic on the labour markets and economies of 16 SADC member states using a qualitative risk assessment on the basis of high‐frequency Google Mobility data, monthly commodity price data, annual national accounts, and households survey labour market data. Our work highlights the ways in which these complementary datasets can be used by economists to conduct near real‐time macroeconomic surveillance work covering labour market responses to macroeconomic shocks, including for seemingly information scarce African economies. We find that Angola, South Africa and Zimbabwe are at greatest risk across several labour market dimensions from the COVID‐19 shock, followed by a second group of countries consisting of Comoros, DRC, Madagascar and Mauritius. Angola faces relatively less general employment risk than South Africa and Zimbabwe due to more muted decreases in mobility, though faces large pressure in its primary sector. These countries all face high risk in their youth populations, with Angola and Zimbabwe seeing high risks for women. South Africa faces more sector‐specific risks in their secondary and tertiary sectors, as does Mauritius. Comoros, DRC and Madagascar all face high risks of employment loss for women and youth, with Comoros and Mauritius facing severe general employment risks.

The real losers during times of economic crisis: evidence of the Korean gender pay gap

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to gain a better understanding of the employment figures in the labour market after the two Korean financial crises (1997 and 2008), focusing on the gender gap across different characteristics. Based on several data points, a general trend becomes evident whereby, as companies retrenched, they shifted the demographics of their employees to those perceived as most valuable, i.e. workers with university educations. However, when distinguished by gender, it is evident that their priorities changed. This discovery suggests that as the world faces another global health crisis (COVID-19) with its associated impact on organisational retrenchment, the gender gap in Korea could widen further.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis was conducted by applying a simple compounded average growth rate (CAGR) analysis to determine the impact of the two crises on employment by the educational level.FindingsA general trend becomes evident whereby, as companies retrenched, they shifted the demographics of their employees to those perceived as most valuable, i.e. workers with university educations. However, when distinguished by gender, it is evident that their priorities changed.Research limitations/implicationsSecondary data were used for the analysis as data for unemployed, who had given up looking for work, were not available.Practical implicationsManagers can use the findings when making decisions about laying-off staff during times of financial/economic crisis.Social implicationsThere is a perceived negative impact upon highly educated Korean women.Originality/valueThe paper advances the pay gap literature by providing evidence from Korea. CAGR analysis has never been used previously in analysing the pattern of labour market data to reveal gender discrimination. With a global health crisis (COVID-19) with its associated impact on organisational retrenchment, the gender gap in Korea could widen further.

The Travel Behaviour of Polish Women and Adaptation of Transport Systems to Their Needs

Although knowledge of women’s travel behaviours is essential to guarantee equality in transport, there is still a lack of awareness of gender-differentiated behaviour and gender issues are not often incorporated into urban policy. The aim of the article is to present a first attempt at a wider-scale diagnosis of women’s travel behaviours and needs as well as existing barriers to transportation access for woman in Poland, with respect to current findings. Documents on history, culture, social factors and labour market data were reviewed to indicate factors that may explain travel behaviours. The data of the Travel Studies for seven Polish cities were analysed to diagnose gender differences in travel. Public policies and initiatives were analysed to examine the level of awareness of women’s needs and the adaptation of transport to these needs. The results proved that the greatest differences in the trip purpose was observed for age group 25–49, in which women make more trips for errands, and men for work. Women travel more, which is observed among 25–59-year-olds, if the main occupation is considered. Women travel more on foot and by public transport, while men by private car and the results indicate that it is mostly visible for people aged 25–59. The age groups 39–49 for women and 30–49 for men are the most dependent on the car. The differences may be explained by historical, cultural and social factors, and these factors can be also seen as barriers to achieving equal access to transport. A low level of awareness of women’s mobility needs is one of the reasons that Polish transport systems are not fully adapted to their needs.

Extreme Climate and Absence from Work: Evidence from Jamaica

This study investigated the impact of extreme climate events on work absence in Jamaica. To this end, we constructed a quarterly individual level dataset on labor market and climatic data for 2004–2014. We find that while excess rainfall increases the odds of being temporarily absent from work, heat is unlikely to have an effect. The estimated outcome of excess rainfall is reasonable given the possibility of flooded roads, which can impede travel to work. This draws attention to the development of e-commuting policies to mitigate any negative effects on productivity.

The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries

We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries based on two successive quarters of negative GDP growth recession. For most OECD countries this establishes the start of recession in Q22008 or Q32008. We find that the Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in other OECD countries it identifies the start in almost every case, after that identified by GDP. But the GDP and labor market data are subject to major revisions, so the turn is not apparent in most countries for some time. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. It involves looking for a ten-point rise in the series compared to its previous twelve month low. These surveys are timely and have the major advantage they are not subject to revision. Across the OECD we confirm this finding with other types of qualitative data and especially so in the UK. Qualitative surveys, we show, in the US in 2006 and 2007 predicted the subsequent recession and they did the same in Europe at the end of 2007 and in the early part of 2008.

A gender analysis of Covid-19’s impact on the Hungarian Labor Market

Ending of all forms of inequality both within and across nations is a central objective in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by world leaders in 2005. The aim of SDG 5 is achieved gender equality and empower all women and girls by 2030. Whereas SDG 10.2 has the aim to empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective sex or other demographic characteristics. After a century of impressive progress in women’s political and economic empowerment at the global level, overall economic opportunities for women still lag behind men. Empirical evidence indicates that women are more disadvantaged than men in labour markets across the world in terms of unemployment rates, labour force participation, employment vulnerability as well as segregation in jobs and economic sectors. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted men and women in the labour market different using Hungary as a case study. Based on a gender analysis of monthly labour market data before and during the first year of the pandemic (2015-2020), the study finds that females were more adversely affected in terms of labour market outcomes such as employment rates and unemployment rates. For instance, in all age brackets males had higher employment rates than males. Also, the employment rates for females during the first year of the pandemic was lower than the previous year.

Nonlinear Unemployment Effects of the Inflation Tax

We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent e ects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks - productivity and monetary - and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the US postwar labor market and monetary data and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.