Labour Market Attachment Research Articles

Uncertain occupational expectations at age 19 and later educational and labour market outcomes

AbstractMany young people lack clear subjective occupational expectations. A concern is how they will perform later in life. We examine the impact of uncertain expectations at age 19 on education and labour market outcomes at age 30. We use the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2000 survey conducted on a nationally representative sample of 15‐year‐olds, a follow‐up survey in 2004, and administrative registry data from 2004–2014. We find that uncertain expectations are associated with low educational attainment and weak labour market attachment. This result applies mainly for young men and for young people from low socioeconomic backgrounds.

Family size and economic wellbeing following divorce: The United States in comparative perspective

Studies have documented the negative association between divorce and women's economic wellbeing in several countries. Less is known about whether the effects of divorce on women's economic wellbeing, and their persistency, vary by family size. We present the first comprehensive assessment of how the short-term and medium-term economic consequences of divorce vary by family size. Using data from the US (PSID) and between-within random-effects models, we estimate changes in women's gross household income up to six years following divorce, stratified by the number of children in the household in the year of divorce. We add a comparative perspective using a harmonized set of socio-economic panel surveys from Australia (HILDA), Germany (GSOEP), and the UK (BHPS). Our findings demonstrate that the household incomes of women with three or more children decrease most drastically in the US, Germany, and the UK. In these countries, divorce widens the economic gap between child-rich households and those with no or few children. While childless women's incomes do not recover in the medium-term, incomes of mothers in Germany, the UK, and to a lesser extent the US partially recuperate. We demonstrate that differences in labor market attachment, and not remarriage, partially account for the family size differences we observe.

Wage Growth across Fields of Study among Young College Graduates: Is There a Gender Gap?

AbstractWe use the Flexible Professional in the Knowledge Society data set to learn about gender gaps during the early career of college graduates in Europe. We document substantial heterogeneity across fields of education in the gender wage gap at the entrance to the labour market. We find that the gap evolves against women over the five years after graduation in Social Science and in Economics, Business, and Law. Finally, we estimate a significant female wage growth penalty after we control for observable characteristics only within the Economics, Business, and Law category. Within this field, we estimate a female annual wage growth penalty of 1.1 percentage points among individuals who remained childless and 2.5 percentage points among individuals who became parents. A small fraction of the wage growth gap disappears after we control for variables capturing individual differences in job mobility or in labour market attachment during the early career. (JEL codes: J16, J24, J31)

Precariousness in Norway and Sweden: a comparative register-based study of longstanding precarious attachment to the labour market 1996–2015

ABSTRACT Precariousness in working life is a rising concern in Europe, but scant statistical evidence exists as to the prevalence and development of longstanding precarious employment. Using high-quality individual-level population-wide register data across several decades, this study addresses this issue in Norway and Sweden. Longstanding precarious attachment to the labour market was defined as low/marginal work income during eight years, with frequent substantial income drops and/or reliance on income maintenance schemes. In the core working-age population, 15.3 percent in Norway and 20.0 percent in Sweden had this employment attachment during 1996–2003. Women, low educated, and foreign-born were at higher risk. Contrary to expectations, in 2008–2015, longstanding precarious attachment had declined to 12.7 percent in Norway and 14.5 percent in Sweden. Women in particular, but also immigrants, had attained stronger labour market attachment in the latter period. These results could indicate that key welfare state elements such as trade union strength, strong employment protection and active labour market policies have been successful in shielding workers from negative labour market developments. However, certain population categories with particularly high risk of precarious employment, such as young adults and short-term and undocumented immigrants, have not been analysed by this study.

Instrumental variable-based assessment of the effect of psychotherapy on suicide attempts, health, and economic outcomes in schizophrenia.

The literature on the effect of psychotherapy for schizophrenia is limited and characterized by small samples and possible bias from risk selection. We examined the effects of psychotherapy on suicide attempts and health and economic outcomes using an instrumental variable (IV) approach that exploits the variation in the propensities of hospital departments to prescribe psychotherapy. This was supplemented with naïve probit models as exogeneity could not be ruled out for all of the outcomes. The validity of the instrument was examined by distributional plots and various tests. The assumed randomness in referring patients to providers with high versus low propensities to psychotherapy appeared to be a critical aspect. Splitting the sample into homogeneous provider types did not substantially alter the results. Based on the IV results, we found no support for the effect of psychotherapy on suicide attempt, psychiatric readmission, assisted living, or labor market attachment. However, we cannot rule out smaller effects due to confidence intervals including the probit estimates. The main contribution of this study is new evidence on a broad range of outcomes and a large and representative population.

Path-Dependencies in Employment Trajectories Around Motherhood: Comparing Native Versus Second-Generation Migrant Women in Belgium

A sizeable body of literature has shown that the migrant-native employment gap is larger among women with children than among childless women, suggesting that the transition to parenthood has a stronger impact on the employment trajectories of migrant origin women compared to those of native women. However, due to the limited use of longitudinal data, our understanding of the mechanisms generating differential employment trajectories around the transition to parenthood remains limited. This study adopts a life course perspective to address path-dependencies in employment trajectories around the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data and fixed-effects models that compare within-individual changes in contractual working hours around the transition to parenthood between natives and second-generation migrants of Southern European and Turkish or Moroccan origin in Belgium, we find no migrant-native differentials among women with low employment rates before the birth of their first child and only limited differentials in employment trajectories around parenthood among women with medium and high employment rates before parenthood. This indicates that there is a strong path-dependency of employment trajectories around parenthood for migrant women and natives alike, but that second-generation migrant women generally have a lower pre-birth labour market attachment than native women which accounts for the frequently observed migrant-native differentials in maternal employment.

The unequal impact of ill health: Earnings, employment, and mental health among breast cancer survivors in Finland

I study the impact of breast cancer on earnings, employment, and mental health among Finnish women, specifically examining whether there is a heterogeneous impact according to socioeconomic status. In addition, the contribution of the article lies in investigating the extent to which mental health problems mediate the impact on earnings and employment, and how efficiently social insurance system protects individuals from income loss due to sickness. The empirical analyses are based on unique register data including the total population of Finland from 2000 to 2016. As an identification strategy, the exact timing of cancer diagnosis is used. The results are based on difference-in-differences estimations. Breast cancer has an overall impact of –5.1 percent on annual earnings with significant differences between earnings quintiles: the negative impact in the second earnings quintile is the largest, –8.9 percent. Results hold when using other socioeconomic variables, while the impact is bigger when we include women with weaker labor market attachment to the analysis. Mental health problems mediate the impact only modestly. The negative effect is smaller when looking at total income highlighting the importance of the Finnish welfare state to buffer effects of ill health on economic well-being.

COVID-19 infections in the districts of Oslo.

Belonging to certain ethnic groups, socioeconomic status and cramped living conditions are assumed to affect the risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2. We wanted to examine correlations between a selection of sociodemographic variables and infection rates in Oslo's districts. Aggregated data on districts obtained from Oslo City Government's statistics database were collated with cumulative figures for PCR-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 as of 3 December 2020. We selected some variables from the living conditions indicators that showed a strong correlation with infection rates. The composite variable 'socioeconomic status' included income, education and labour market attachment. 'Household density' included the proportion of people in cramped living conditions and multi-family households. We performed an unadjusted and adjusted standard multiple linear regression analysis of the impact of immigrant ratio, socioeconomic status and household density on infection rates. Immigrant ratio, socioeconomic status and household density were all associated with infection rates in the districts. Pearson's correlation coefficients (95% CI) were 0.97 (0.93 to 0.99), -0.93 (-0.97 to -0.86) and 0.88 (0.77 to 0.98) respectively, all with p <0.001. In the adjusted model, immigrant ratio was still associated with the infection rate, B = 3.95 (2.16 to 5.73), p <0.001, however there was no longer a statistically significant association between socioeconomic status or household density and infection rates. Immigrant ratio seems to be an important risk factor for infection in Oslo. Our analysis suggests that the correlation may be due to factors other than low socioeconomic status and high household density.

Learning about Homelessness Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Official poverty statistics and even the extreme poverty literature largely ignore people experiencing homelessness. In this paper, we examine the characteristics, labor market attachment, geographic mobility, earnings, and safety net utilization of this population in order to understand their economic well-being. This paper is the first to examine these outcomes at the national level using administrative data on income and government program receipt. It is part of the Comprehensive Income Dataset project, which combines household survey data with administrative records to improve estimates of income and related statistics. Specifically, we use restricted microdata from the 2010 Decennial Census, which enumerates both sheltered and unsheltered homeless people, the 2006-2016 American Community Survey (ACS), which surveys sheltered homeless people, and longitudinal shelter-use data from several major U.S. cities. We link these data to longitudinal administrative tax records as well as administrative data on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), veterans’ benefits, Medicare, Medicaid, housing assistance, and mortality. Our approach benefits from large samples that offer a guide to national homelessness patterns and allow us to compare estimates between data sources, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s point-in-time (PIT) counts. By shedding light on issues of data linkage and survey coverage among homeless people, this paper contributes to efforts to better incorporate this hard-to-survey population into income and poverty estimates. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Learning About Homelessness Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Official poverty statistics and even the extreme poverty literature largely ignore people experiencing homelessness. In this paper, we examine the characteristics, labor market attachment, geographic mobility, earnings, and safety net utilization of this population in order to understand their economic well-being. This paper is the first to examine these outcomes at the national level using administrative data on income and government program receipt. It is part of the Comprehensive Income Dataset project, which combines household survey data with administrative records to improve estimates of income and related statistics. Specifically, we use restricted microdata from the 2010 Decennial Census, which enumerates both sheltered and unsheltered homeless people, the 2006-2016 American Community Survey (ACS), which surveys sheltered homeless people, and longitudinal shelter-use data from several major U.S. cities. We link these data to longitudinal administrative tax records as well as administrative data on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), veterans’ benefits, Medicare, Medicaid, housing assistance, and mortality. Our approach benefits from large samples that offer a guide to national homelessness patterns and allow us to compare estimates between data sources, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s point-in-time (PIT) counts. By shedding light on issues of data linkage and survey coverage among homeless people, this paper contributes to efforts to better incorporate this hard-to-survey population into income and poverty estimates.

How Residence Permits Affect the Labor Market Attachment of Foreign Workers: Evidence from a Migration Lottery in Liechtenstein

We analyze the impact of obtaining a residence permit on foreign workers' labor market and residential attachment. To overcome the usually severe selection issues, we exploit a unique migration lottery that randomly assigns access to otherwise restricted residence permits in Liechtenstein (situated between Austria and Switzerland). Using an instrumental variable approach, our results show that lottery compliers (whose migration behavior complies with the assignment in their first lottery) raise their employment probability in Liechtenstein by on average 24 percentage points across outcome periods (2008 to 2018) as a result of receiving a permit. Relatedly, their activity level and employment duration in Liechtenstein increase by on average 20 percentage points and 1.15 years, respectively, over the outcome window. These substantial and statistically significant effects are mainly driven by individuals not (yet) working in Liechtenstein prior to the lottery rather than by previous cross-border commuters. Moreover, we find both the labor market and residential effects to be persistent even several years after the lottery with no sign of fading out. These results suggest that granting resident permits to foreign workers can be effective to foster labor supply even beyond the effect of cross-border commuting from adjacent regions.

Canadian Labour Market Dynamics During COVID-19

The Canadian labour market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the main changes using standard labour force statistics and new data on job postings. Envisaging a phase of temporary severing of employment relationships followed by a phase of more standard labour market search and matching, we use stock and flow data to understand key developments. We find dramatic changes in employment, unemployment and labour market attachment in 2020 and, looking forward to 2021, signs of an unusual recovery with co-existing strong labour demand and stubborn persistence in depressed employment rates.

Long-Term Consequences of Teaching Gender Roles: Evidence from Desegregating Industrial Arts and Home Economics in Japan

We explore whether a 1990 Japanese educational reform that eliminated gender-segregated and gender-stereotyped industrial arts and home economics classes in junior high schools led to behavioral changes among these students some two decades later when they were married and in their early forties. Using a Regression Discontinuity (RD) design and Japanese time-use data from 2016, we find that the reform had a direct impact on Japanese women's attachment to the labor force, which seems to have changed the distribution of gender roles within the household, as we observe both a direct effect of the reform on women spending more time in traditionally male tasks during the weekend and an indirect effect on their husbands, who spend more time in traditionally female tasks. We present suggestive evidence that women's stronger attachment to the labor force may have been driven by changes in beliefs regarding men' and women's gender roles. As for men, the reform only had a direct impact on their weekend home production if they were younger than their wives and had small children. In such relationships, the reform also had the indirect effect of reducing their wives' time spent in weekend home production without increasing their labor-market attachment. Interestingly, the reform increased fertility only when it decreased wives' childcare. Otherwise, the reform delayed fertility.

Early Retirement of Employees in Demanding Jobs: Evidence from a German Pension Reform

Early retirement options are usually targeted at employees at risk of not reaching their regular retirement age in employment. An important at-risk group comprises employees who have worked in demanding jobs for many years. This group may be particularly negatively affected by the abolition of early retirement options. To measure differences in labor market reactions of employees in low- and high-demand jobs, we exploit the quasi-natural experiment of a cohort-specific pension reform that increased the early retirement age for women from 60 to 63 years. Based on a large administrative dataset, we use a regression-discontinuity approach to estimate the labor market reactions. Surprisingly, we find the same relative employment increase of about 25% for treated women who were exposed to low and to high job demand. For older women in demanding jobs, we do not find substitution effects into unemployment, partial retirement, disability pension, or inactivity. Eligibility for the pension for women required high labor market attachment; thus, we argue that this eligibility rule induced the positive selection of healthy workers into early retirement. We propose alternative policies that protect workers exposed to high job demand better against the negative consequences of being unable to reach their statutory retirement age in employment.

Does Exposure to More Women in Male-Dominated Fields Render Female Students More Career-Oriented?

The underrepresentation of women in male-dominated fields of study can generate a lack of role models for female students, which may influence their career choices. This paper sheds light on this question, investigating the existence of impacts of the gender composition of instructors and peers in the Department of Economics from a selective Brazilian university. Specifically, we analyze whether having higher shares of female professors and classmates throughout undergraduate studies in Economics affects female students' labor market outcomes. We use comprehensive administrative data from the University of Sao Paulo, containing information on students' academic results and students', instructors', and course sections' characteristics. We merge these data with Brazilian labor market and firm ownership data to obtain a broad range of career outcomes, including labor force participation, occupational choices, career progression, and wages. To overcome endogeneity issues arising from students' self-selection into professors and peers, we exploit the random assignment of students in the first-semester classes and focus on mandatory courses. A higher representation of women in a male-dominated field, such as Economics, increases female students' labor force participation. Moreover, larger female faculty shares increase the probability that a female student becomes a top manager. These results suggest ways to counteract the highly discussed glass ceiling in high-earning occupations. We show that students' academic performance and elective course-choice are not driving the effects. Instead, we find suggestive evidence that higher shares of female classmates may increase the likelihood of working during undergraduate studies, leading to stronger labor market attachment.

Labor Market Choices of Migrants and Redistributive Policies

We experimentally study economic migrants’ willingness to take up work and integrate into society, and, in turn, destination country citizens’ willingness to allow economic migrants to pursue formal work and integrate into society and its social security and welfare system. We find clear evidence for a reciprocal relationship between the individuals in these roles. The labor market participation of economic migrants co-moves with destination countries’ openness to welcoming them. We conclude that supporting economic migrants in early labor market attachment is crucial to support a mutually beneficial co-existence in a society.

Labour Market Attachment, Workplace Infection Control Procedures and Mental Health: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Canadian Non-healthcare Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to large proportions of the labour market moving to remote work, while others have become unemployed. Those still at their physical workplace likely face increased risk of infection, compared to other workers. The objective of this paper is to understand the relationship between working arrangements, infection control programs (ICP), and symptoms of anxiety and depression among Canadian workers, not specifically working in healthcare. MethodsA convenience-based internet survey of Canadian non-healthcare workers was facilitated through various labour organizations between April 26 and June 6, 2020. A total of 5180 respondents started the survey, of which 3779 were assessed as employed in a full-time or part-time capacity on 2 March 2020 (prior to large-scale COVID-19 pandemic responses in Canada). Of this sample, 3305 (87.5%) had complete information on main exposures and outcomes. Anxiety symptoms were measured using the Generalised Anxiety Disorder screener (GAD-2), and depressive symptoms using the Patient Health Questionnaire screener (PHQ-2). For workers at their physical workplace (site-based workers) we asked questions about the adequacy and implementation of 11 different types of ICP, and the adequacy and supply of eight different types of personal protective equipment (PPE). Respondents were classified as either: working remotely; site-based workers with 100% of their ICP/PPE needs met; site-based workers with 50–99% of ICP/PPE needs met; site-based workers with 1–49% of ICP/PPE needs met; site-based workers with none of ICP/PPE needs met; or no longer employed. Regression analyses examined the association between working arrangements and ICP/PPE adequacy and having GAD-2 and PHQ-2 scores of three and higher (a common screening point in both scales). Models were adjusted for a range of demographic, occupation, workplace, and COVID-19-specific factors.ResultsA total of 42.3% (95% CI: 40.6–44.0%) of the sample had GAD-2 scores of 3 and higher, and 34.6% (95% CI: 32.–36.2%) had PHQ-2 scores of 3 and higher. In initial analyses, symptoms of anxiety and depression were lowest among those working remotely (35.4 and 27.5%), compared to site-based workers (43.5 and 34.7%) and those who had lost their jobs (44.1 and 35.9%). When adequacy of ICP and PPE was taken into account, the lowest prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms was observed among site-based workers with all of their ICP needs being met (29.8% prevalence for GAD-2 scores of 3 and higher, and 23.0% prevalence for PHQ-2 scores of 3 and higher), while the highest prevalence was observed among site-based workers with none of their ICP needs being met (52.3% for GAD-2 scores of 3 and higher, and 45.8% for PHQ-2 scores of 3 and higher).ConclusionOur results suggest that the adequate design and implementation of employer-based ICP have implications for the mental health of site-based workers. As economies re-open the ongoing assessment of ICP and associated mental health outcomes among the workforce is warranted.

Disentangling the complexity of family policies: SPIN data with an application to Lithuania and Sweden, 1995–2015

Background: Family policies influence how men and women structure their time in the labour market and in the home. Analyses based on expenditure data, regime types, and single policies, however, cannot represent how policies support individuals’ labour market attachment and care for children. Data from the Social Policy Indicator (SPIN) database offer a tool for measuring the extent to which the family policies of a country support both the earner-carer and the traditional-family models. This large-scale database offers harmonized data on social policies over time for a wide range of countries. It allows scholars to empirically push the frontiers of research on the intersection of gender equality, family and employment dynamics, and social policy. Methods: We describe how measures of earner-carer and traditional-family support were constructed using data from the SPIN database. We use the cases of Lithuania and Sweden to compare the policy developments over time and demonstrate how these developments are represented by SPIN data. Contribution: We present data from the SPIN database, which provides a useful tool for demographers and social scientists interested in the link between family policies and fertility. We describe the range of applications in demographic research so far as well as the advantages and limitations of the database. Using Lithuania and Sweden as an example, we also highlight how the data mirror convergence and divergence in family policy in comparative perspective.

Psychiatric hospital admission and later crime, mental health, and labor market outcomes.

Most OECD countries have downsized treatment capacity at psychiatric hospitals substantially. We investigate consequences of these reductions by studying how the decision whether to admit individuals in mental distress to a psychiatric hospital affects their subsequent crime, treatment trajectories, and labor market outcomes. To circumvent nonrandom selection into admission, we use a proxy of occupancy rates prior to a patient's first contact with a psychiatric hospital as an instrument. We find that admissions reduce criminal behavior, likely due to incapacitation, and predominantly for males and those with a criminal record. Furthermore, admission lowers patients' subsequent labor market attachment, likely because a psychiatric hospital admission is an eligibility criterion for welfare benefits.

Syrian Refugees in the Turkish Labour Market: A Socio-Economic Analysis

This article explores the socio-economic conditions of Syrian refugees in Turkey with the help of the Household Labour Force Survey. Firstly, it describes and analyses some of the challenges derived from an expansive population pyramid, low school attendance rates and high labour market attachment from an early age. Then, it assesses the employment and wage structure of Syrian workers, including the estimation of returns to schooling and a test for employer discrimination towards Syrian refugees. On the one hand, the results suggest that refugees are not discriminated against comparable Turkish employees. On the other hand, for Syrians with university degrees, informal work arrangements and lack of prior learning recognition make their return to schooling five times lower than that of formally employed Turkish citizens.