Labor Supply Elasticities Research Articles

Oligopoly, Macroeconomic Performance, and Competition Policy

We develop a macroeconomic framework in which firms are large and have market power with respect to both products and labor. Each firm maximizes a share-weighted average of shareholder utilities, which makes the equilibrium independent of price normalization. In a one-sector economy, if returns to scale are non-increasing, then an increase in “effective” market concentration (which accounts for overlapping ownership) leads to declines in employment, real wages, and the labor share. Moreover, if the goal is to foster employment then (i) controlling common ownership and reducing concentration are complements and (ii) government jobs are a substitute for either policy. Yet when there are multiple sectors, due to an intersectoral pecuniary externality, an increase in common ownership can stimulate the economy when the elasticity of labor supply is high relative to the elasticity of substitution in product markets. We characterize for which ownership structures the monopolistically competitive limit or an oligopolistic one (where firms become small relative to the economy) are attained as the number of sectors in the economy increases. Finally, we provide a calibration to illustrate our results.

Monopsony in Labor Markets: A Meta-Analysis

When jobs offered by different employers are not perfect substitutes in the minds of workers, employers gain wage-setting power; the extent of this power can be captured by the elasticity of labor supply that each employer faces. Estimates of this parameter reported by the literature vary broadly. We collect 801 estimates from published studies, record 20 aspects of each study’s design and perform Bayesian Model Averaging to show that this observed variation is systematic and can be attributed to four groups of factors. First, estimates depend on methodologies used by the researchers: different specifications produce systematically different results that are also affected by whether the study employs an identification strategy; the choice between linear and non-linear estimation techniques also matters. Second, estimates vary with the underlying data: labor markets seem to be more competitive in Europe, and less competitive in developing countries - compared to the US, Canada and Australia. The market for medical workers appears to be more monopsonistic compared to others. Third, there is evidence of publication bias in parts of the literature, which results in negative estimates of supply elasticities receiving lower probability of being reported, and a (slightly) exaggerated mean. Fourth, estimates seem to vary with study quality, with top journals publishing higher estimates and studies using larger data sets producing more evidence of competitive behavior.

The Sensitivity of Structural Labor Supply Estimations to Modeling Assumptions

There is still considerable dispute about the magnitude of labor supply elasticities. While differences in estimates especially between micro and macro models are recently attributed to frictions and adjustment costs, we show that the variation in elasticities derived from structural labor supply models can also be explained by modeling assumptions. Specifically, we estimate 3,456 different models on the same data each representing a plausible combination of frequently made choices. While many modeling assumptions do not systematically affect labor supply elasticities, our controlled meta-analysis shows that results are very sensitive to the treatment of hourly wages in the estimation. For example, different (sensible) choices concerning the modeling of the underlying wage distribution and especially the imputation of (missing) wages lead to point estimates of elasticities between 0.2 and 0.65. We hence conclude that researchers should pay more attention to the robustness of their estimations with respect to the wage treatment.

Aggregating Elasticities: Intensive and Extensive Margins of Women's Labor Supply

We show that there is substantial heterogeneity in women's labor supply elasticities at the micro level and highlight the implications for aggregate behavior. We consider both intertemporal and intratemporal choices, and identify intensive and extensive responses in a consistent life‐cycle framework, using US CEX data. Heterogeneity is due to observables, such as age, wealth, hours worked, and the wage level, as well as to unobservable tastes for leisure: the median Marshallian elasticity for hours worked is 0.18, with corresponding Hicksian elasticity of 0.54 and Frisch elasticity of 0.87. At the 90th percentile, these values are 0.79, 1.16, and 1.92. Responses at the extensive margin explain about 54% of the total labor supply response for women under 30, although this declines with age. Aggregate elasticities are higher in recessions, and increase with the length of the recession. The heterogeneity at the micro level means that the aggregate labor supply elasticity is not a structural parameter: any aggregate elasticity will depend on the demographic structure of the economy as well as the distribution of wealth and the particular point in the business cycle.

Employment Adjustment Over the Business Cycle: The Impact of Competition in the Labor Market

Using linked employer-employee data which covers the majority of U.S. employment, I examine how frictions in the labor market have evolved over time. I estimate that the labor supply elasticity to the firm declined by approximately 0.19 log points (1.20 to 1.01) since the late 1990's, with the steepest declines occurring during the financial crisis. I find that this decline in labor market competition cost workers about 4 percent in lost earnings. I also find evidence that relatively monopsonistic firms smooth their employment behavior, growing at a rate lower than relatively competitive firms in good economic climates and slightly higher during poor economic climates. This conforms with the predictions of recent macroeconomic search models which suggest that frictions in the economy may actually reduce employment fluctuations.

Endogenous economic growth with disembodied knowledge

AbstractMainstream endogenous growth models assume that new knowledge is embodied into either new intermediate or final goods, monopolistically supplied by the patent holder. Recent technological progress, however, often gives rise to pure intellectual contents, such as software codes or business models, directly usable in the production of final goods. Once a content of this type has been produced, it is in fixed supply, that is, the inventor can only rent it out (or sell it) or not; hence, the quantity restriction typical of monopoly cannot arise, while competition is viable. We show that, however, as long as the inventor owning a patent can control through license activation devices the access to the intellectual content of the workers using her invention in the final goods production, monopolistic exploitation becomes viable and will occur. It turns out that in this framework, the income share of labor is smaller than in the Lab‐Equipment economy, which represents the setting closest to our model. Moreover, with elastic labor supply labor employment is also negatively impacted. This implies that some standard public policies devised for correcting inefficiencies in development may perform poorly in this framework.

The Effect of Wealth on Individual and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Swedish Lotteries

We study the effect of wealth on labor supply using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes in a large sample of Swedish lottery players. Winning a lottery prize modestly reduces earnings, with the reduction being immediate, persistent, and quite similar by age, education, and sex. A calibrated dynamic model implies lifetime marginal propensities to earn out of unearned income from −0.17 at age 20 to −0.04 at age 60, and labor supply elasticities in the lower range of previously reported estimates. The earnings response is stronger for winners than their spouses, which is inconsistent with unitary household labor supply models. (JEL D14, J22, J31)

Tax Avoidance and Tax Incidence

Economists broadly agree that the economic burden of corporate taxes is not entirely borne by shareholders, but also borne in part by employees or consumers. We model corporate tax avoidance in a setting where shareholders do not bear the entire economic burden of the corporate tax. We show the relation between corporate tax incidence and corporate tax avoidance depends on the elasticity of labor supply, the productivity of capital relative to labor, and the tax deductibility of labor and capital. These forces have competing effects, making the association between tax avoidance and incidence an empirical question. Empirically, we find that firms whose shareholders bear less of the economic burden of corporate taxes engage in less avoidance, and that the results are strongest under conditions predicted by our model. Our findings suggest that maximizing after-tax profits might entail less tax avoidance if shareholders do not entirely bear the corporate tax burden.

Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation

This paper studies optimal insurance against private idiosyncratic shocks in a life-cycle model with intensive labor supply and endogenous retirement. In this environment, the optimal labor tax is hump-shaped in age: insurance benefits of taxation push for increasing-in-age taxes while rising labor supply elasticities and optimal late retirement of highly productive workers push for lowering taxes for old workers. In calibrated numerical simulations, the optimum achieves sizable welfare gains that age-dependent taxes do not deliver under the status quo US Social Security. Nevertheless, an optimal combination of age-dependent linear taxes with increasing-in-age retirement benefits generates welfare gains close to optimal.

Aggregation with a Non-Convex Labour Supply Decision, Unobservable Effort, and Reciprocity (“Gift Exchange”) in Labor Relations

The purpose of this note is to explore the problem of non-convex labour supply decision in an economy with reciprocity in labour relations (gift exchange) a la Danthine and Kurmann (2010), and explicitly perform the aggregation presented in Vasilev (2017) without a formal proof, and thus provide - starting from micro-foundations - the derivation of the expected utility functions used for the aggregate household. We show how lotteries as in Rogerson (1988) can be used to convexify consumption sets, and aggregate over individual preferences. With a discrete labour supply decisions, the elasticity of aggregate labour supply increases from unity to infinity.

Green tax reform, endogenous innovation and the growth dividend

We study theoretically and numerically the effects of an environmental tax reform using endogenous growth theory. In the theoretical segment, mobile labor between manufacturing and R&D activities, and elasticity of substitution between labor and energy in manufacturing lower than unity allow for a growth dividend, even if we consider preexisting tax distortions. The scope for innovation is reduced when we consider direct financial investment in the lab, or elastic labor supply. We then apply the core theoretical model to a real growing economy and find that a boost in long-run economic growth following such a carbon policy is a possible outcome. Redistribution of additional carbon tax revenue by lowering capital taxation performs best in terms of effciency measured by aggregate welfare. In terms of equity among social segments the progressive character of lump-sum redistribution fails when we consider very high emissions reduction targets.

Trade and towns: Heterogeneous adjustment to a border shock

We study the effects of changes in trade openness on wages and employment across towns of different sizes, using Austrian regional data and the fall of the Iron Curtain as a quasi-experimental setting. We find improved access to foreign markets to boost both employment and nominal wages in border regions, but large towns tend to have larger wage responses and smaller employment responses than small towns. These adjustment patterns are consistent with a multi-region model featuring labor supply elasticities that vary with town size. The implied differential border-town welfare gains are related non-monotonically to town size, peaking at a population level of about 150,000.

ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND HOUSEHOLD LEVERAGE

We add households with heterogeneous discount factors and constrained credit to a research and development (R&D)-based endogenous growth model. Borrowers' access to credit has profound implications for growth. The direction and magnitude of this effect depend on preferences over labor supply. If labor supply is highly elastic and households do not smooth their labor supply between labor that produces output and R&D, annual growth decreases from 11.6% to approximately zero as the debt-to-capital ratio rises from 0 to 1.38. If households instead have a strong preference for smoothing their labor supply, then growth increases from 2.91% to 3.83% as the debt-to-capital ratio rises from 0 to 1.55. In both cases, less elastic labor supply weakens these effects. The results are similar if existing ideas do not affect the creation of new ideas. Now, when households do not smooth their labor supply, less debt results in faster growth, and productivity and output converge to much higher values.

Elastic labor supply and agglomeration

AbstractThis study analyzes the interplay between the agglomeration of economic activities and interregional differences in working hours, which are typically longer in large cities, as they are normally more developed than small cities. For this purpose, we develop a two‐region model with endogenous labor supply. Although we assume a symmetric distribution of immobile workers, the symmetric equilibrium breaks in the sense that firms may agglomerate when trade costs are intermediate and labor supply is elastic. We also show that the price index is always lower, while labor supply, per capita income, real wages, and welfare are always higher in the more agglomerated region.

Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with nonseparable preferences

In this paper, we introduce a complementary relationship between consumption and labor hours by revising the household’s period utility function in Liu et al. (2013). The revision concomitantly allows for a finite Frisch elasticity of labor supply and a stronger consumption smoothing motive. We find that, in general, the estimation of Liu et al. (2013) is quite robust. In addition, the propagation mechanism of the credit constraint triggered by a housing demand shock still persists. However, the amplification effect of the credit constraint triggered by the housing demand shock on key macroeconomic variables is greatly muted. We also find that, except for land price fluctuations, the housing demand shock cannot act as the primary force to drive the fluctuations in other macroeconomic variables.

Optimal pensions in aging economies

Abstract We derive the optimal replacement ratio of the pay-as-you-go public pension system for the US economy in a life-cycle model that 1) replicates the empirical wage heterogeneity and 2) endogenizes the individual’s labor supply decision. The optimal net pension replacement ratio is found to be in the range of 0%–43% depending on demographic parameters and, in particular, the Frisch labor supply elasticity. Reducing the pensions from the present to the optimal pension policies implies considerable welfare gains amounting to approximately 0.1%–4.1% of total consumption. The welfare increase is particularly pronounced for the greyer US population that is projected for the time after the demographic transition.

Factor substitution and long-run growth in the Lucas model with elastic labor supply

We show that there exists a positive (resp., negative) relationship between the elasticity of factor substitution and long-run growth if the baseline ratio of physical capital to effective labor is above (resp., below) its steady-state value in the Lucas model with elastic labor supply.

Measuring links between labor monopsony and the gender pay gap in Brazil

This paper focuses on gender differences in job mobility and earnings for workers in Brazil. Monopsony theory suggests a link between the wage elasticity of labor supply and wage penalties. Should one group of workers be less elastic in their supply choices, that group is predicted to earn less than others. To measure wage elasticity, I estimate a hazard model on voluntary job separations using the RAIS, a linked employer-employee dataset that captures formal-sector workers’ job durations over time. Four models are specified and point to significant gender differences. Across the models, male elasticity ranges from 1.638 to 2.175 while female elasticity ranges from 1.22 to 1.502. The female wage penalty predicted by these elasticity differences ranges from 11.4 to 20.5%, compared to an actual gender wage difference of 16.4%. Results of higher male elasticity are robust to the use of a more parsimonious specification, a discrete-time approach, the use of job spell data for a single year, and disaggregation by region. I extend the model through decomposition methods to help clarify the association between earnings, job separations, and elasticity.

Married couple work participation and earnings elasticities: evidence from tax data

This paper uses administrative tax panel data to estimate work participation and earnings elasticities of married couples by exploiting variation in tax policy. Not only may individuals alter labor supply by working more or less in response to changes in tax policy, they may also alter reported earnings or shift income between taxable and tax-deferred compensation. As a result, in addition to estimating the standard extensive and intensive labor supply elasticities, we also examine elasticities by type of income (wage earnings vs. self-employment earnings) and compensation (taxable vs. tax-deferred). We find that wives have more elastic work participation and earnings than husbands. Furthermore, self-employment income is more responsive to net-of-tax price changes than wage earnings for both husbands and wives, suggesting that it is easier for the self-employed to alter their work hours, work intensity, and/or reported income than wage earners. Finally, we find that wives respond to changes in the net-of-tax price of earnings by altering the amount of earnings subject to current-year taxes through adjustments of tax-deferred contributions to employer-provided retirement accounts.

Extensive and intensive margins and exchange rate regimes

AbstractThis paper studies the costs and benefits of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in the presence of endogenous intensive and extensive margins of trade. The net benefit depends on the levels and volatilities of those margins as well as on their correlation with consumers’ preferences. A fixed exchange rate regime is preferred for sufficiently high labour supply elasticities and lower love for product diversity. Delays between entry and production make fixed exchange rate regimes less attractive.