Labor Market Variables Research Articles

Weakness in Italy’s Core Inflation and the Phillips Curve: The Role of Labour and Financial Market Indicators

We investigate the dynamics of core inflation in Italy, with a special focus on the period of low inflation after 2014, through the lenses of a Phillips curve framework. Composite indicators of the Italian labour and financial market are constructed and included into a Phillips curve. A number of results emerges from the empirical analysis. First, a statistically significant trade-off between core inflation and economic activity is observed, especially when measures of slack are derived from labour market variables. Second, financial indicators can help to better characterize the dynamics of core inflation. Third, when controlling for financial indicators the slope of the Phillips curve turns out to be smaller, except for the case in which it is measured by the measure of slack based on broad labour market conditions. Fourth, a steepening in the Phillips curve emerges in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, while a stabilization is evident at the end of the sample. Fifth, non-linear techniques suggest that weakness in core inflation may be dependent on the level of labour market tightness and of trend inflation especially. These findings have non-negligible implications for modeling and forecasting inflation dynamics in Italy.

Labour Market in the Czech Republic: Dsge Approach

Abstract This paper deals with the comparison of two versions of the DSGE model, supplemented with labour market frictions, based on different data used. One of the data sets has been pre-filtered with the HP filter (lambda set to 1) to get rid of any noise and the other with the original data series with measurement errors allowed. I compare the models with the following tools: parameters estimation, impulse response analysis, standard deviation and cross-correlations and recursive forecast. I also present the historical shock decomposition of the labour market variables to provide the explanation of the development in the Czech labour market, which is considered the most efficient labour market in Europe of the last couple of years with the lowest unemployment rate.

Reconciling endogenous job destruction with labor market stylized facts: The role of hiring costs

This note considers a Real Business Cycle model with search and matching frictions as well as purely endogenous separations in line with the model of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) in order to solve the Shimer (2005) puzzle. This puzzle shows the inconsistency of such a model to capture the high volatility of labor market variables (unemployment, vacancies) and cyclical property (Beveridge curve, job creation and destruction). Using hiring costs rather than vacancy posting cost in this setup allows to solve this puzzle.

Moral Hazard in Lending and Labor Market Volatility

AbstractWhen the economy experiences a sharp economic downturn, credit spreads widen and project financing costs for firms rise as funding sources begin to dry up. The economy experiences a lengthy recovery, with unemployment rates slow to return to “full employment” levels. We develop a model that displays these features. It relies on an interaction between labor search frictions and firm‐level moral hazard that is accentuated during recessions. The model is capable of addressing the “Shimer puzzle,” with labor market variables exhibiting significantly more volatility on average as a result of the heightened moral hazard concerns during these episodes that significantly deepen and prolong periods of high unemployment, as vacancy postings fall dramatically and the job‐finding rate declines. Our mechanism is also found to induce internal shock propagation causing the peak response of output, unemployment, and wages to occur with a several quarter delay relative to a model without such frictions. Many other labor market variables also show slower recovery—their return to preshock level occurs at a slower pace for a number of periods after the peak response.

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and Unemployment Volatility

AbstractThe literature has long agreed that the DMP model (after Diamond 1982, Mortensen 1982, Pissarides 1985) with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities, consistent with empirical data, only if there is at least some wage stickiness. I show, however, that the model can deliver nontrivial volatilities without wage stickiness, as long as it has price dispersion and nonzero long‐run inflation rates. I find that by keeping inflation at a positive rate, monetary policy may be accountable for the large standard deviations observed on labor market variables. In addition, the Shimer (2005) puzzle disappears under monetary policy shocks.

What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?

SummaryThis paper evaluates the effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low‐frequency macroeconomic variables representative of the US economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allow us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. We find that credit and labor market variables react the most to uncertainty shocks in that they exhibit a prolonged negative response to such shocks. When looking at detailed investment subcategories, our estimates suggest that the most irreversible investment projects are the most affected by uncertainty shocks. We also find that the responses of macroeconomic variables to uncertainty shocks are relatively similar across single‐frequency and mixed‐frequency data models, suggesting that the temporal aggregation bias is not acute in this context.

House Prices and Job Losses

Why are house prices -80% correlated with job losses over the UK business cycle? My paper studies this striking fact together with the strong comovements between house prices and labour market variables in general. First, a regional panel is estimated to quantify the impact of house prices on the unemployment, job finding and job separation rates, whereby rejection rates of planning applications are used as instruments to find exogenous variation in house prices. Second, an orthogonalised VAR is used to estimate the aggregate impact of house price shocks. Both methods confirm the large impact of house price shocks on labour market variables and credit supply. To understand the mechanism, a general equilibrium model with collateral constraints, endogenous job separation and housing shocks is confronted with macroeconomic data via Bayesian methods. The results suggest that shocks to house prices (i) explain about 10% of output fluctuations and about 20% of fluctuations in corporate credit, unemployment and job separation rates via the collateral channel over the forecast horizon, and (ii) were a major cause in triggering the 1990 and 2008 recessions in the UK.

Compulsory Schooling and Early Labor Market Outcomes in a Middle-Income Country

The 1997 reform in Turkey which extended compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years provides an opportunity to estimate the returns to schooling in a middle-income country. The availability of a rich set of early labor market variables also provides an opportunity to assess mechanisms through which returns to schooling occur. I find quite small effects of compulsory schooling on earnings of men but large positive effects on earnings of women who work, without raising their overall low rate of labor force participation. In terms of mechanisms, I find that women who worked moved into higher skill and formal sector jobs, which involved more complicated tasks on average.

The cyclicality of labor-market flows: A multiple-shock approach

In this paper, we aim to establish some stylized facts about the relative contributions of the job-finding and separation rates to unemployment dynamics depending on the nature of structural shocks. The shocks in our Bayesian Structural VAR model are identified using a sign-restriction approach, and capture shifts in the three conditions determining labor-market equilibrium in matching models: the Beveridge curve, and the job-creation and job-destruction conditions. Using both US and French data, we identify an aggregate shock to match profitability (the aggregate-profitability shock), a shock specific to existing jobs (the reallocation shock) and a shock to the efficiency of the matching process (the matching-efficiency shock). We find that the relative contributions of the job finding and separation rates are notably different across shocks in both countries, but are similar across countries for each type of shock. Labor market dynamics appear to be Transatlantic despite well-known institutional differences. However, it must be emphasized that the reaction of the labor market variables to the matching-efficiency shock seems more muted in the US than in France.

Evaluating the impact of the labor market conditions index on labor market forecasts

Abstract This paper examines the usefulness of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) in forecasting key labor market variables, particularly unemployment rates. Using a number of models, we compare out-of-sample forecasts of the unemployment rate with the LMCI to those without the LMCI. We also estimate models of the disaggregated unemployment rates by gender, race, and race by gender, with and without the LMCI, to identify disparities in the predictive power of the LMCI for different subgroups. Last, to determine how the LMCI performs in the presence of labor market shocks, we compare the forecasting performance of the LMCI during recessionary periods and expansionary periods. Our results confirm the potential usefulness of the LMCI as a parsimonious forecasting tool; we find that the LMCI generally improves unemployment forecasts. But, disparities exist in the predictive power of the index across subpopulations and the index forecasts slightly better during recessionary periods than expansionary periods.

Heterogeneity, Rigidity and Convergence of Labor Markets in the Euro Area

This paper investigates the welfare consequences of labor market convergence reforms for a large range of calibrations in a two-country monetary union DSGE model with search and matching frictions. The model features trade in consumption and investment goods, price stickiness, firing costs and is calibrated to reflect the structural asymmetries of flexible and rigid countries of the Euro Area in terms of size and labor market variables. Across steady states, convergence brings welfare gains for the rigid country and welfare losses for the flexible country in most situations. The higher the flexibility induced by the convergence, the higher the gains for the rigid country and the lower the losses for the flexible country. Taking into account the transition path brings results that are qualitatively similar, but have a lower magnitude in terms of welfare gains/losses. Indeed, wage bargaining has a short-term negative impact on the rigid country and a short-term positive impact on the flexible country. As such, I conclude that convergence in labor markets can lead to substantial welfare gains in a monetary union, but only if the implementation is carefully designed.

Time-varying volatility in the U.S. labor market

ABSTRACTIn state-of-the-art macroeconomic and labor market models shocks are assumed to be homoscedastic. However, we show that this assumption is much too restrictive. We estimate the conditional variance-covariance matrix using a VAR-DCC model and discuss the time-varying risk contained in a large set of labor market variables. We find significant evidence for strong time-varying volatility in all considered labor market time series. We observe that recessions tend to lead peaks of volatility for most variables. Further, the effect of the Great Moderation does not hold for all variables. We also find different effects of supply-side and demand-side recessions. The implications are relevant for modelling purposes, forecasting, welfare analysis, and the understanding of sources of fluctuations.

Technology and the Two Margins of Labor Adjustment: A New Keynesian Perspective

Canova et al. (2010 and 2012) estimate the dynamic response of labor market variables to technological shocks. They show that investment-specific shocks imply almost exclusively an adjustment along the intensive margin (i.e., hours worked), whereas for neutral shocks the largest share of the adjustment takes place along the extensive margin (i.e., employment). In this paper we develop a New Keynesian model featuring capital accumulation, two margins of labor adjustment and a hiring cost. The model is used to analyze a novel economic mechanism to explain that evidence.

Исследования российского рынка труда и экономическая политика

The paper summarizes the studies on the mechanisms of Russian labor market. The subjects under consideration include unemployment and wages formation, relationship between key labor market variables and inflation, and labor market adjustment to negative shocks. We demonstrate that the general feature of Russian labor market is its high flexibility, which shows itself a gradual decline of the NAIRU level, high elasticity of real wages by unemployment rate, rapid return to full employment after negative external shocks. Problems rooted in the labor market are specified (primarily declining labor supply and increasing labor share in GDP), their neglect can become a major impediment for economic growth if forceful measures based on the earlier and future research findings are not taken.

A DSGE Model of Slovakia with Frictional Labor Market and Monetary Regime Switch

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to examine the dynamical and structural characteristics of Slovakia using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with search and matching mechanisms and other forms of frictions. I implement a switching mechanism to account for the monetary regime change in Slovakia in 2009. My focus lies in the investigation of labor market rigidities that affect the macroeconomic variables. I also examine the long term impact of the recession in 2009 on the Slovak economy. My findings are as follows. Firstly, based on parameter estimates, I identify significant labor market frictions present in the Slovak Republic. Secondly, my results capturing the historical evolution of key macroeconomic variables support the view that the recession in the examined small open economy was mainly caused by shocks originating in the foreign sector. Thirdly, the monetary authority can influence the labor market variables through its transmission channels relatively effectively; and lastly, I discovered that the recession decreased the Slovak economy’s flexibility. While the results of estimations on two sub-samples are quite similar for most of the structural parameters, an increase in price and wage stickiness is observable.

FINANCIAL SHOCKS, JOB DESTRUCTION SHOCKS, AND LABOR MARKET FLUCTUATIONS

This paper investigates the effect of financial shocks using a general equilibrium model that links the firm's flows of financing with labor market variables. The results show that financial shocks have sizeable effects on debt, dividend payout, and wages. Shocks to the job destruction rate are important in explaining fluctuations in unemployment. The analysis also investigates the underlying driving forces of some key comovements in the data and finds shocks to the job destructions rate important.

Labor Market Volatility in the RBC Search Model: A Look at Hagedorn and Manovskii’s Calibration

The standard Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides (DMP) labor search model generates low volatility in labor market variables relative to average labor productivity, the so-called Shimer puzzle. Hagedorn and Manovskii (Am Econ Rev 98(4):1692–1706, 2008) demonstrate that recalibrating the standard DMP model to be consistent with the small vacancy posting cost and wage elasticity observed in the data can resolve the Shimer puzzle. They close by stating that their calibration strategy would also resolve the Shimer puzzle in the real business cycle (RBC) search framework. In this paper, we examine their claim and find that their strategy resolves the Shimer puzzle in the RBC search model for linear preferences (with risk neutrality and infinite Frisch elasticity of labor supply), but falls significantly short for more standard assumptions on the degree of relative risk aversion (of 1–2) and Frisch elasticity (of 2–3), in line with empirical estimates. While our conclusions are based on highly accurate solutions using the Generalized Stochastic Simulation Algorithm, we also assess the accuracy of a frequently used linearization method and its implications for the assessment of labor market volatility.

Complexity in action: Untangling latent relationships between land quality, economic structures and socio-spatial patterns in Italy.

Land quality, a key economic capital supporting local development, is affected by biophysical and anthropogenic factors. Taken as a relevant attribute of economic systems, land quality has shaped the territorial organization of any given region influencing localization of agriculture, industry and settlements. In regions with long-established human-landscape interactions, such as the Mediterranean basin, land quality has determined social disparities and polarization in the use of land, reflecting the action of geographical gradients based on elevation and population density. The present study investigates latent relationships within a large set of indicators profiling local communities and land quality on a fine-grained resolution scale in Italy with the aim to assess the potential impact of land quality on the regional socioeconomic structure. The importance of land quality gradients in the socioeconomic configuration of urban and rural regions was verified analyzing the distribution of 149 socioeconomic and environmental indicators organized in 5 themes and 17 research dimensions. Agriculture, income, education and labour market variables discriminate areas with high land quality from areas with low land quality. While differential land quality in peri-urban areas may reflect conflicts between competing actors, moderate (or low) quality of land in rural districts is associated with depopulation, land abandonment, subsidence agriculture, unemployment and low educational levels. We conclude that the socioeconomic profile of local communities has been influenced by land quality in a different way along urban-rural gradients. Policies integrating environmental and socioeconomic measures are required to consider land quality as a pivotal target for sustainable development. Regional planning will benefit from an in-depth understanding of place-specific relationships between local communities and the environment.

Inequality in the Labor Market for Native American Women and the Great Recession

This research paper builds on previous literature and documents general changes in the labor market for Native American women that occurred during the Great Recession using extracts of data from the Current Population Survey Annual Earnings file, known as the Merged Outgoing Rotation Groups (MORG). Wages, unemployment, and other labor market variables for Native American women are contrasted with those of Native American men and white women to determine the relative change in labor market inequality that occurred during the Great Recession.

Working Capital Requirement and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle

Shimer (2015) argues that a search and matching model of the labor market in which wage is determined by Nash bargaining cannot generate the observed volatility in unemployment and vacancy in response to reasonable labor productivity shocks. This paper examines how incorporating monopolistically competitive firms with a working capital requirement (in which firms borrow funds to pay their wage bills) improves the ability of the search models to match the empirical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancy without resorting to an alternative wage setting mechanism. The monetary authority follows an interest rate rule in the model. A positive labor productivity shock lowers the real marginal cost of production and lowers inflation. In response to the fall in price level, the monetary authority reduces the nominal interest rate. A lower interest rate reduces the cost of financing and partially offsets the increase in labor cost from a higher productivity. A reduced labor cost implies the firms retain a greater portion of the gain from a productivity shock, which gives them a greater incentive to create vacancies. Simulations show that a working capital requirement does indeed improve the ability of the search models to generate fluctuations in key labor market variables to better match the U.S. data.