Kyoto Targets Research Articles

Defending the Penguin Army: An Inconvenient Truth

Sir John Houghton, former co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s scientific assessment working group, has argued that we must think of global warming as a weapon of mass destruction, on a par with nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and terrorism.1 Yet the most powerful state in the world, the United States, regards terrorism as a much more serious threat than global warming, even though the latter is set to cause far more destruction and loss of lives (and livelihoods) than the former. The costs of the Iraq War to the United States are now greater than the expected costs of the USA meeting its Kyoto targets.2 But as the UK Stern Report on the economic costs of climate change makes clear, if you don’t like the mitigation bill for global warming, just wait until you see the damage bill. An Inconvenient Truth sets out to convince Americans, and anyone else who needs persuading, that the problem of global warming is deadly serious, frighteningly real and already under way. Directed by Davis Guggenheim, this is essentially a documentary of a lecture by Al Gore. However, this is no ordinary talking-head lecture. Al Gore’s finely honed slide show, with its masses of graphs, images, cartoons (by Matt Groening, creator of The Simpsons), a few carefully timed oneliners and other props, educates, shocks, and at times entertains viewers about global warming and its implications for life on Earth. In the film, Guggenheim fractures and personalises the lecture by interpolating some defining moments in Al Gore’s life-story and political career, including his attempts over a period of more than 30 years to convince a sceptical America that it needs to change its ways. In fact, An Inconvenient Truth is not so much a movie as a phenomenon, with its accompanying website and book, and an educational programme which includes training 1,000 ‘climate messengers’ to deliver the film’s message to community groups in the USA and, soon, also in Australia. Within a month of its official release in US movie theatres in May 2006, An Inconvenient Truth had risen to the rank of the world’s thirdhighest-earning documentary, after Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11

The Kyoto Protocol and the Effect of Existing and Planned Measures in the Agricultural and Forestry Sector in the EU25

Agricultural and forestry activities cover the majority of the EU territory: in particular agriculture is the main land use type, accounting for more than 41% of the land use in the EU15, while in the new Member States this share ranges between 30 and 60%, whereas forestry is the second. The role of agriculture as both a source of and as a sink of greenhouse gases (GHG) varies significantly because of the diversity of production systems adopted by farmers and of the environmental conditions in Europe. The effectiveness of the policy measures adopted so far in the agro-forestry sector to meet the Kyoto target are reported in the National Communications to the UNFCC which now reached its 4th edition. National Communication were used in this reports as the main source of information to develop a country by country survey of policy measure - both from a qualitative and a quantitative perspective - allowing to understand the progresses the Members States are making towards their commitments, also thanks to a comparative assessment of this release with the previous communications to the UNFCC. Although not all members' states did provide quantitative estimations, the comparison of the third fourth edition of the National Communication showed that almost all the countries have revised their estimations and projections of GHG emissions. It is also worth noting that that even though the measures reported at the country level still respond mainly to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) requirements or to the improvement of air and water quality standards, the issue of climate change has become increasingly prominent in the design of agro-forestry development strategies.

Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

We simulate the market for emission permits by considering uncertainty in emission inventory reports. The approach taken in this analysis is to enhance the emissions reported in each region by a certain part of their uncertainty when compliance with the Kyoto targets is being proved. While this formulation is not new in the literature, we define the uncertainty component in a way that enables comparison with the approach of effective permits presented in Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories, (this issue). We show and explain that the transformation to effective permits bears additional costs apart from those resulting from shifting the Kyoto targets.

Pollution impacts from CO2 plans | Hamster cells bring DBPs into the library | Wetlands reduce estrogens from wastewater | Chemicals in salmon vary by species | EU gets renewed wake-up call on Kyoto targets | Renewable hydrogen fueling

ADVERTISEMENT RETURN TO ISSUEPREVNEWSNEXTPollution impacts from CO2 plans | Hamster cells bring DBPs into the library | Wetlands reduce estrogens from wastewater | Chemicals in salmon vary by species | EU gets renewed wake-up call on Kyoto targets | Renewable hydrogen fuelingCatherine M. Cooney, Naomi Lubick, Barbara Booth, Kris Christen, and Kellyn S. BettsCite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2007, 41, 2, 352–357Publication Date (Web):January 15, 2007Publication History Published online15 January 2007Published inissue 1 January 2007https://doi.org/10.1021/es072449zRIGHTS & PERMISSIONSArticle Views298Altmetric-Citations-LEARN ABOUT THESE METRICSArticle Views are the COUNTER-compliant sum of full text article downloads since November 2008 (both PDF and HTML) across all institutions and individuals. These metrics are regularly updated to reflect usage leading up to the last few days.Citations are the number of other articles citing this article, calculated by Crossref and updated daily. Find more information about Crossref citation counts.The Altmetric Attention Score is a quantitative measure of the attention that a research article has received online. Clicking on the donut icon will load a page at altmetric.com with additional details about the score and the social media presence for the given article. Find more information on the Altmetric Attention Score and how the score is calculated. Share Add toView InAdd Full Text with ReferenceAdd Description ExportRISCitationCitation and abstractCitation and referencesMore Options Share onFacebookTwitterWechatLinked InReddit PDF (272 KB) Get e-AlertsSUBJECTS:Hydrogen,Inorganic carbon compounds,Oxides,Wastewater Get e-Alerts

Kyoto: UK not on target: Policy and funding practices need attention for UK renewables to prosper fully

Renewable Energy in the Countryside author Peter Prag looks at how the UK is generating renewable energy – as the chances of the country meeting its Kyoto targets appear slim.

Costs and competitiveness effects of the European Union emissions trading scheme

AbstractIn this paper, we analyse different approaches that are available in order to assess the impacts of the EU ETS on costs and competitiveness in Europe. In this respect, we focus on existing simulation studies. We have identified the choice of the reference scenario as the most critical issue for an appropriate analysis of the relevant approaches. We find, however, that effects of the scheme on costs and competitiveness are modest, even given the business as usual case that does not take the legally binding framework of the Kyoto Protocol into account. Furthermore, the impacts of the EU ETS are smaller than the impacts of alternative Kyoto‐based regulation scenarios. Compared with these other regulation methods ETSs can have positive competitiveness effects. However, the EU ETS is not designed to boost Europe's economy. Its prime purpose and justification is to ensure that Europe's CO2 emissions are brought down and Kyoto targets are reached at minimal costs. In our opinion, it is therefore important that the system as well as modifications to it do not undermine the environmental goals associated with this policy instrument. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL OF WIND POWER IN ROMANIA WITHIN KYOTO TARGETS

The Kyoto target for Romania was to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 8 % from the 1989 levels. The 1989 emissions were around 260 million tones. In 2000 the net CO2 emission - some 125 million tones - were 54% of the net CO2 emission in the reference year -1989, leaving some 115 million tones as a reserve or as a tradable resource to other countries that can not met their Kyoto targets. Assuming that Romania will sell 100 millions tones of its extra quota in accordance to Article 17 under Kyoto at 10 euros a tone this paper will try to answer the following question: What is the best way for the Romanian government to spend 1 billion euros in the renewable energy? As the area of renewable energy is highly complex this paper will mainly focus on assessing the programs related to wind power. This paper will provide an assessment of the wind potential in Romania by assessing an average project. This essay will argue that green certificates are a model to be considered over other schemes like feed in tariffs or direct investment.

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

This paper explores sustainable transport within the European Union (EU), arguing that a strong sustainable transport definition needs to be used if targets set at Kyoto are to be achieved. The EU strategy is now (2006) based on modal shift, decoupling and technological innovation, weakening the more radical strategy set up in 2001. It seems that expansion of the EU, lower levels of growth, and the possibilities of continuing high costs of oil have resulted in changing priorities, but above all travel demand has continued to grow. The Kyoto targets are becoming much harder to reach. The paper then outlines the three groups of measures that have been promoted, looking at (1) technology and pricing, (2) regulation, taxation and congestion charging, and (3) land use, development and planning, arguing that strong action is required on all three sets of options. Even then, there is an additional requirement, namely the need to gain public acceptability through information, marketing and engagement so that positive outcomes can be matched up with policy intentions. Real progress towards reducing carbon emissions is possible provided that mutually supporting measures are taken, with political commitment to real change and public support for that change.

Decentralization in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and Lessons for Global Policy

In 2005, the European Union introduced the largest and most ambitious emissions trading program in the world to meet its Kyoto commitments for the containment of global climate change. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has some distinctive features that differentiate it from the more standard model of emissions trading. In particular, it has a relatively decentralized structure that gives individual member states responsibility for setting targets, allocating permits, determining verification and enforcement, and making some choices about flexibility. It is also a “cap-within-a-cap,” seeking to achieve the Kyoto targets while only covering about half of the EU emissions. Finally, it is a program that many hope will link with other greenhouse gas (GHG) trading programs in the future—something we have not seen among existing trading systems. Examining these features, coupled with recent EU ETS experience, offers lessons about how cost effectiveness, equity, flexibility, and compliance fare in a multi-jurisdictional trading program, and highlights the challenges facing a global emissions trading regime.

Decentralization in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and Lessons for Global Policy

In 2005, the European Union introduced the largest and most ambitious emissions trading program in the world to meet its Kyoto commitments for the containment of global climate change. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has some distinctive features that differentiate it from the more standard model of emissions trading. In particular, it has a relatively decentralized structure that gives individual member states responsibility for setting targets, allocating permits, determining verification and enforcement, and making some choices about flexibility. It is also a cap-within-a-cap, seeking to achieve the Kyoto targets while only covering about half of EU emissions. Finally, it is a program that many hope will link with other greenhouse gas trading programs in the future - something we have not seen among existing trading systems. Examining these features coupled with recent EU ETS experience offers lessons about how cost effectiveness, equity, flexibility, and compliance fare in a multi-jurisdictional trading program, and highlights the challenges facing a global emissions trading regime.

Slovenia's climate policy efforts: CO2 tax and implementation of EU ETS

Slovenia is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to an average of 8% below the base year 1986 in the period 2008–2012, due to the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. It was the first of the transition countries to implement a CO2 tax in 1997. At the beginning of 2005, Slovenia joined other EU Member States by implementing the Emissions Trading Scheme. In contrast with other new EU Member States, Slovenia will be a net buyer of allowances. Therefore future movements on the emissions market will play an important role in the compliance costs of achieving the Kyoto target. The main purpose of this article is to present the establishment and characteristics of the first national allocation plan (NAP1) and to describe the main elements of the second national allocation plan (NAP2) for Slovenia within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the expected movements on the emissions allowances market in Slovenia, the expected compliance cost of achieving the Kyoto target and to present the main characteristics and efficiency of the CO2 tax in Slovenia.

Evaluation of energy saving and CO2emission reduction technologies in energy supply and end‐use sectors using a global energy model

AbstractAssessments of global warming mitigation technologies are important for achieving the Kyoto target and planning post‐Kyoto regimes. Regional differences in energy resources, growth in energy consumption, current technology diffusions, etc., should be considered in the assessments. A global energy systems model, DNE21+, with high regional resolution had treated the energy supply sectors in a bottom‐up fashion and the end‐use sectors in a top‐down fashion, which was expressed by using long‐term price elasticity. However, the assessments of technological options in the end‐use sectors are currently more important, particularly for the near and middle terms. In order to evaluate the technological options not only in the energy supply sectors but also in the end‐use sectors for energy savings and CO2emission reductions, DNE21+ has been modified for treating two energy‐intensive end‐use sectors, i.e. steel and cement sectors, in the bottom‐up fashion. The results reveal that the cost‐effective global CO2emission reductions in 2030 for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2concentration at 550 ppmv in comparison with that in the reference case would be approximately 68 MtC/yr and almost zero in the steel and cement sectors, respectively. The cost‐effective options include next‐generation coke ovens and coke dry quenching (CDQ) in the steel sector. Copyright © 2007 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies

Energy models are considered as valuable tools to assess the impact of various energy and environment policies. The ACROPOLIS initiative, supported by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency, used up to 15 energy models to simulate and evaluate selected policy measures and instruments and then compare their impacts on energy systems essentially in terms of costs of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction and energy technology choice. Four case studies are formulated considering policies and measures on renewable portfolio schemes and internationally tradable green certificates, emissions trading and global GHG abatement target, energy efficiency standards and internalisation of external costs. The main focus of the project is on the electricity sector. From a large set of quantified results, ACROPOLIS provides an international scientific consensus, on some key issues, which could be useful in assessing and designing energy and environment policies at the world, European and national/regional levels. It concludes that the Kyoto targets (and their continuation beyond 2010 in specific scenarios) could be achieved at a cost around 1% of GDP through global emissions trading, indicating also that this flexibility mechanism is a more cost-effective instrument for GHG mitigation than meeting the goal domestically without trade. It demonstrates that internalising external costs through a price increase reduces local pollutants (SO x , NO x , and others) and it produces other benefits such as triggering the penetration of clean technologies in addition to the curbing of CO 2 emissions.

Achieving 60% CO 2 reductions within the UK energy system—Implications for the electricity generation sector

This paper explores how investment in the UK electricity generation sector can contribute to the UK goal of reducing CO 2 emissions with 60% by the year 2050 relative to the 1990 emissions. Considering likely development of the transportation sector and industry over the period, i.e. a continued demand growth and dependency on fossil fuels and electricity, the analysis shows that this implies CO 2 emission reductions of up to 90% by 2050 for the electricity sector. Emphasis is put on limitations imposed by the present system, described by a detailed database of existing power plants, together with meeting targets on renewable electricity generation (RES) including assumptions on gas acting as backup technology for intermittent RES. In particular, it is investigated to what extent new fossil fuelled and nuclear power is required to meet the year 2050 demand as specified by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP). In addition, the number of sites required for centralized electricity generation (large power plants) is compared with the present number of sites. A simulation model was developed for the analysis. The model applies the UK national targets on RES, taken from Renewable Obligation (RO) for 2010 and 2020 and potentials given by RCEP for 2050, and assumed technical lifetimes of the power plants of the existing system and thus, links this system with targets for the years 2010, 2020 and 2050. The results illustrate the problem with lock-in effects due to long capital stock turnover times, which can either lead to political difficulty meeting targets in established policy or costly early retirement of power plants (stranded assets) to comply with emission goals prescribed in Kyoto targets or the 60% emission reduction goal. Assuming typical technical lifetimes of the power plants it can be concluded that the present electricity generation system continues to play a significant role for several decades generating about 50% of projected electricity demand in 2025. In addition, the results show that although the high degree of fuel switch from coal to natural gas which has taken place in the UK over the last decade (which seems to continue) which enables the UK to fulfill the Kyoto target, the resulting dependency on gas gives a more or less constant level of CO 2 emissions between 2010 and 2020. Hence, meeting stricter abatement targets in a second Kyoto period requires emission reductions in other sectors or penetration levels of RES faster than prescribed in the RO.

Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan

In 2003 Japan proposed a Climate Change Tax to reduce its CO2 emissions to the level required by the Kyoto Protocol. If implemented, the tax would be levied on fossil fuel use and the revenue distributed to encourage the purchase of energy efficient equipment. Analysis using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model shows that this policy is unlikely to bring Japan into compliance with its Kyoto target unless the subsidy encourages improvement in energy intensity well beyond Japan’s recent historical experience. Similar demand-management programs in the US, where there has been extensive experience, have not been nearly as effective as they would need to be to achieve energy efficiency goals of the proposal. The Tax proposal also calls for limits on international emission trading. We find that this limit substantially affects costs of compliance. The welfare loss with full emissions trading is 1/6 that when Japan meets its target though domestic actions only, the carbon price is lower, and there is a smaller loss of energy-intensive exports. Japan can achieve substantial savings from emissions trading even under cases where, for example, the full amount of the Russian allowance is not available in international markets.

The Impacts of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on Competitiveness in Europe

This literature review analyses the impacts of the EU ETS on competitiveness focussing on existing simulation studies. We have identified the choice of the reference scenario as the most critical issue for an appropriate analysis of the relevant literature. We find, however, that effects of the scheme on competitiveness are modest, even given the business as usual case that does not take the legally binding framework of the Kyoto Protocol into account. Furthermore, the impacts of the EU ETS are smaller than the impacts of alternative Kyoto-based regulation scenarios. Compared to these other regulation methods ETSs can have positive competitiveness effects. However, the EU ETS is not designed to boost Europe's economy. Its prime purpose and justification is to ensure that Europe's CO2 emissions are brought down and Kyoto targets are reached at minimal costs. To our opinion, it is therefore important that the system as well as modifications to it do not undermine the environmental goals associated with this policy instrument.

The Kyoto mechanisms and technological innovation

Climate change response, including the implementation of the Kyoto targets as the first step, calls for technological innovation of future sustainable energy systems. Based on the Danish case, this paper evaluates the type of technological change necessary. During a period of 30 years, Denmark managed to stabilize primary energy supply, and CO 2 emissions decreased by 10%, during a period of 20 years. However, after the introduction of the Kyoto Mechanisms, Denmark has changed its strategy. Instead of continuing the domestic CO 2 emission controls, Denmark plans to buy CO 2 reductions in other countries. Consequently, the innovative technological development has changed. This paper evaluates the character of such change and makes preliminary recommendations for policies to encourage the use of the Kyoto Mechanisms as an acceleration of the necessary technological innovation.

Comparing Primary Energy Attributed to Renewable Energy with Primary Energy Equivalent to Determine Carbon Abatement in a National Context

The current conventional approach to determining the primary energy associated with non-combustible renewable energy (RE) sources such as wind energy and hydro power is to equate the electricity generated from these sources with the primary energy supply. This paper compares this with an approach that was formerly used by the IEA, in which the primary energy equivalent attributed to renewable energy was equated with the fossil fuel energy it displaces. Difficulties with implementing this approach in a meaningful way for international comparisons lead to most international organisations abandoning the primary energy equivalent methodology. It has recently re-emerged in prominence however, as efforts grow to develop baseline procedures for quantifying the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions avoided by renewable energy within the context of the Kyoto Protocol credit trading mechanisms. This paper discusses the primary energy equivalent approach and in particular the distinctions between displacing fossil fuel energy in existing plant or in new plant. The approach is then extended provide insight into future primary energy displacement by renewable energy and to quantify the amount of CO2 emissions avoided by renewable energy. The usefulness of this approach in quantifying the benefits of renewable energy is also discussed in an energy policy context, with regard to increasing security of energy supply as well as reducing energy-related GHG (and other) emissions. The approach is applied in a national context and Ireland is case study country selected for this research. The choice of Ireland is interesting in two respects. The first relates to the high proportion of electricity only fossil fuel plants in Ireland resulting in a significant variation between primary energy and primary energy equivalent. The second concerns Ireland's poor performance to date in limiting GHG emissions in line with its Kyoto target and points to the need for techniques to quantify the potential contribution of renewable energy in achieving the target set.

Impact of electric power generation on green house gas emissions in Europe: Russia, Greece, Italy and views of the EU power plant supply industry – A critical analysis

This paper analyses the impact of electric power generation on greenhouse gas emissions in Europe (including the Asian part of Russia) with reference to Russia, Greece, Italy, and views of the EU power plant supply industry in respect of the Kyoto protocol. The outlook of power industry development in Russia in the 21st century is first considered and its impact on Russia’s greenhouse gas emissions is examined. Forecasts for developing Russia’s economy and electric power industry in the first half of the 21st century are presented. Possible structural change in the electric power industry in Russia together with dynamic changes of CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion in power plants are examined. It is shown that CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion at power plants in Russia may increase 2.7-fold in 50 years. Calculations depict that specific CO 2 emissions in Asian Russia exceed greatly that of the European part. It then reviews measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions in Greece. Impact of the currently adopted measures and initiatives to reduce emissions in the Greek energy system for the period up to 2030 is discussed with emphasis on the current decade. Under the scenario for environmental policy, the additional commitments and measures to limit CO 2 emissions towards the Kyoto targets are discussed. The paper summarizes a possible Italian strategy for implementing Kyoto protocol mechanisms to meet commitments of the EU Emission Trading Draft Directive, the Italian strategy in the Ministerial documents, and final considerations. It then examines clean power generation technology for the 21st Century and gives a perspective from the EU power plant supply industry. A perspective is presented with respect to impact of global climate change on product development strategy. Fossil fuel based power generation technologies will continue to play an important part of the energy mix in the foreseeable future and different parts of the world will require different technologies to meet their local specific requirements. It will be necessary to continue to develop clean technologies and to promote their use world-wide.

Emissions Trading, CDM, JI, and More: The Climate Strategy of the EU

The objective of this paper is to assess the likely allocation effects of the current climate protection strategy as it is laid out in the National Allocation Plans (NAPs) for the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The multi-regional, multi-sectoral CGE-model DART is used to simulate the effects of the current policies in the year 2012 when the Kyoto targets need to be met. Different scenarios are simulated in order to highlight the effects of the grandfathering of permits to energy-intensive installations, the use of the project-based mechanisms (CDM and JI), and the restriction imposed by the supplementarity criterion.