Krill Biomass Research Articles

Spatial Distribution and Temporal Patterns of Cassin's Auklet Foraging and Their Euphausiid Prey in a Variable Ocean Environment.

Krill (Euphausiids) play a vital ecosystem role in many of the world’s most productive marine regions, providing an important trophic linkage. We introduce a robust modeling approach to link Cassin’s auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) abundance and distribution to large-scale and local oceanic and atmospheric conditions and relate these patterns to similarly modeled distributions of an important prey resource, krill. We carried out at-sea strip transect bird surveys and hydroacoustic assessments of euphausiids (2004–2013). Data informed separate, spatially-explicit predictive models of Cassin’s auklet abundance (zero-inflated negative binomial regression) and krill biomass (two-part model) based on these surveys. We established the type of prey responsible for acoustic backscatter by conducting net tows of the upper 50 m during surveys. We determined the types of prey fed to Cassin’s auklet chicks by collecting diet samples from provisioning adults. Using time-depth-recorders, we found Cassin’s auklets utilized consistent areas in the upper water column, less than 30 m, where krill could be found (99.5% of dives were less than 30 m). Birds primarily preyed upon two species of euphausiids, Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, which were available in the upper water column. Cassin’s auklet abundance was best predicted by both large scale and localized oceanic processes (upwelling) while krill biomass was best predicted by local factors (temperature, salinity, and fluorescence) and both large scale and localized oceanic processes (upwelling). Models predicted varying krill and bird distribution by month and year. Our work informs the use of Cassin’s auklet as a valuable indicator or krill abundance and distribution and strengthens our understanding of the link between Cassin’s auklet and its primary prey. We expect future increases in frequency and magnitude of anomalous ocean conditions will result in decreased availability of krill leading to declines in the Farallon Islands population of Cassin’s auklets.

A preliminary model of iron fertilisation by baleen whales and Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean: Sensitivity of primary productivity estimates to parameter uncertainty

Large marine animals may play a crucial role in storing and recycling bioavailable iron in surface waters by consuming iron-rich prey and subsequent defecation of iron that is excess to their requirements. This biological recycling of iron could enhance primary productivity in iron-limited waters. However, quantifying the effects of marine animals on ocean primary productivity remains challenging because of a limited understanding of the key biogeochemical processes involved. In this paper, we develop a preliminary model that explores these uncertainties and examines the potential effects of historical populations of blue, fin and humpback whales, and the biomass of Antarctic krill required to support the whale populations, on primary productivity in the Southern Ocean.Our results suggest that, despite conservative estimates for key processes in our model, pre-exploitation populations of blue whales and, to a lesser extent fin and humpback whales, could have contributed to iron recycling, resulting in enhanced phytoplankton production in iron-limited Southern Ocean waters. Iron-rich defecation by un-exploited whale populations in the Southern Ocean, and the biomass Antarctic krill required to support them, could have resulted in a contribution to primary productivity of between 1.5×10−4 to 23.4gCm−2yr−1 (blue whales), 1.4×10−4 to 13.9gCm−2yr−1 (fin whales), and 2.4×10−5 to 1.7gCm−2yr−1 (humpback whales). However, only when all parameter estimates are at their upper limits does there appear to be this significant role for whales in enhancing primary productivity, and thus we need to assess the likelihood of these values arising.The high degree of uncertainty around the magnitude of these increases in primary productivity is mainly due to our limited quantitative understanding of key biogeochemical processes. To reduce uncertainty regarding the effect of whales on Southern Ocean primary productivity, future research will need to refine our understanding of five influential model parameters: iron content in krill; krill consumption rates by whales; persistence of whale faecal iron in the photic zone; bioavailability of this retained iron; and the carbon-to-iron ratio of phytoplankton.

The use of fishing vessels to provide acoustic data on the distribution and abundance of Antarctic krill and other pelagic species

A fishery for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has existed for over 3 decades and the Commission for Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) manages this fishery using precautionary catch limits, fishery data collection and a scientific observer programme operating on the fishing vessels. A recent increase in the number of vessels fishing and the rising costs of undertaking scientific research cruises have focussed attention on being able to use fishing vessels to collect more extensive scientific data sets. In 2011, CCAMLR’s Subgroup on Acoustic Survey and Analysis Methods (SG-ASAM) was tasked with assessing the use of acoustic data collected from fishing vessels to provide qualitative and quantitative information on the distribution and relative abundance of Antarctic krill and other pelagic species. SG-ASAM conceived a proof of concept programme and implemented the first stage in 2013 to determine the current setup of acoustic equipment on participating fishing vessels and to establish whether these vessels could collect geo- and time-referenced acoustic data. To date data have been received from 7 krill fishing vessels and SG-ASAM has now focussed on the development of data collection protocols to enable fishing vessels to collect quantitative acoustic data along prescribed transects. While this development work continues, the willingness of fishing industry to participate in such studies has already been demonstrated by several fishing companies, and Norwegian- and Chinese-flagged fishing vessels are undertaking krill biomass surveys in two key fishery Areas in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean.

Selectivity and two biomass measures in an age-based assessment of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba)

An integrated, age-structured model was fitted to different combinations of survey data using two forms of selectivity (logistic or double-logistic) with time-constant or annually varying selectivity to investigate the population dynamics of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) near the Antarctic Peninsula. The data were from surveys conducted by the U.S. Antarctic Marine Living Resources Program around the South Shetland Islands from 1992 to 2011. Two indices of krill biomass based on (1) trawl-net samples and (2) hydroacoustic sampling were combined with length-compositions from the nets. Sixteen model configurations using different combinations of the two biomass surveys with the various options for modeling selectivities were examined. Parameters were estimated in phases with the sequential order of the phases randomized until an invertible Hessian matrix was obtained. Model consistency for the estimates of derived quantities was tested using simulated data. Annual trends in the estimates of total biomass, spawning biomass, and recruitment were similar among different configurations assuming time-constant selectivity, but the absolute scaling ranged widely depending on which biomass indices were used. All configurations with time-constant selectivities were able to reproduce the derived quantities of the operating model when fitted to simulated data. Annually varying selectivities produced more variable estimates of the trends in population biomass, but less variable estimates of scale, compared to time-constant configurations fitted to the same data. The models with annually varying selectivities did not produce invertible Hessian matrices, and four of these configurations could not reproduce the derived parameters of their operating model when fitted to simulated data. Using AIC, the model with logistic, time-constant selectivities was selected as the best configuration to fit both sources of biomass data. The two-stage approach of first randomizing the phase order until an invertible Hessian matrix is achieved and then verifying the reproducibility of the estimates of derived quantities using simulated data could be employed in any integrated stock assessment with parameters estimated in phases.

Effects of whaling on the structure of the Southern Ocean food web: insights on the "krill surplus" from ecosystem modelling.

The aim of this study was to examine the ecological plausibility of the “krill surplus” hypothesis and the effects of whaling on the Southern Ocean food web using mass-balance ecosystem modelling. The depletion trajectory and unexploited biomass of each rorqual population in the Antarctic was reconstructed using yearly catch records and a set of species-specific surplus production models. The resulting estimates of the unexploited biomass of Antarctic rorquals were used to construct an Ecopath model of the Southern Ocean food web existing in 1900. The rorqual depletion trajectory was then used in an Ecosim scenario to drive rorqual biomasses and examine the “krill surplus” phenomenon and whaling effects on the food web in the years 1900–2008. An additional suite of Ecosim scenarios reflecting several hypothetical trends in Southern Ocean primary productivity were employed to examine the effect of bottom-up forcing on the documented krill biomass trend. The output of the Ecosim scenarios indicated that while the “krill surplus” hypothesis is a plausible explanation of the biomass trends observed in some penguin and pinniped species in the mid-20th century, the excess krill biomass was most likely eliminated by a rapid decline in primary productivity in the years 1975–1995. Our findings suggest that changes in physical conditions in the Southern Ocean during this time period could have eliminated the ecological effects of rorqual depletion, although the mechanism responsible is currently unknown. Furthermore, a decline in iron bioavailability due to rorqual depletion may have contributed to the rapid decline in overall Southern Ocean productivity during the last quarter of the 20th century. The results of this study underscore the need for further research on historical changes in the roles of top-down and bottom-up forcing in structuring the Southern Ocean food web.

Gut evacuation rate and grazing impact of the krill Thysanoessa raschii and T. inermis

Gut evacuation rates and ingestion rates were measured for the krill Thysanoessa raschii and T. inermis in Godthabsfjord, SW Greenland. Combined with biomass of the krill community, the grazing potential on phytoplankton along the fjord was estimated. Gut evacuation rates were 3.9 and 2.3 h−1 for T. raschii and T. inermis, respectively. Ingestion rates were 12.2 ± 7.5 µg C mg C−1 day−1 (n = 4) for T. inermis and 4.9 ± 3.2 µg C mg C−1 day−1 (n = 4) for T. raschii, corresponding to daily rations of 1.2 and 0.5 % body carbon day−1. Clearance experiments conducted in parallel to the gut evacuation experiment gave similar results for ingestion rates and daily rations. Krill biomass was highest in the central part of the fjord’s length, with T. raschii dominating. Community grazing rates from krill and copepods were comparable; however, their combined impact was low, estimated as <1 % of phytoplankton standing stock being removed per day during this late spring study.

Studying the Impacts of Local Oceanographic Processes on Adélie Penguin Foraging Ecology

AbstractWe are conducting a multi-platform field study to investigate the impact of local physical processes on Adélie penguin foraging ecology in the vicinity of Palmer Deep off Anvers Island, Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Guided by real-time remotely sensed surface current measurements of convergence derived from a network of high-frequency radars (HFRs), we adaptively sample the distribution and biomass of phytoplankton and Antarctic krill, which influence Adélie penguin foraging ecology, to understand how local oceanographic processes structure the ecosystem. The recent application of ocean observing and animal telemetry technology over Palmer Deep has led to new understanding and many new questions related to polar ecosystem processes. The HFR coastal surface current mapping network is uniquely equipped to resolve local circulation patterns over Palmer Deep. The surface current measurements enable identification of regions of convergence and divergence in real time. Guided by these maps, our field study adaptively samples the measured convergence and divergence zones within the context of semi-diurnal and diurnal mixed tidal regimes. The in situ sampling includes (a) a mooring deployment, (b) multiple underwater glider deployments, (c) small boat acoustic surveys of Antarctic krill, and (d) penguin ARGOS-linked satellite telemetry and temperature-depth recorders (TDRs). The combination of real-time surface convergence maps with adaptive in situ sampling introduces HFR to the Antarctic in a way that allows us to rigorously and efficiently test the influence of local tidal processes on top predator foraging ecology.

Spatial assessment of fin whale hotspots and their association with krill within an important Antarctic feeding and fishing ground

Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus quoyi) habitat use and its relationship to environmental conditions are generally unknown in the Southern Ocean, presenting challenges for predicting their seasonal occurrence and potential effects of fishing pressure and climate change on this endangered species. Using biological data collected during 14 shipboard surveys off the northern Antarctic Peninsula and oceanographic data from satellite remote sensing, we mapped the distribution of fin whale hotspots, Antarctic krill abundance (biomass from acoustics, concentrations from nets) and ocean conditions during mid- and late-summer to investigate the environmental determinants of whale hotspots. Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to test the hypothesis that intra-seasonal changes in fin whale hotspot distribution relate to sea surface temperature (SST), krill abundance and eddy kinetic energy (EKE). More whale hotspots (sightings and individuals) are observed during late- than mid-summer surveys. During mid-summer, hotspots occurred near Elephant Island while in late-summer they were distributed throughout the slope region in proximity to the mean location of the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front. The spatial mean of EKE did not differ between mid- and late-summer surveys, but the spatial mean of SST was significantly warmer during late-summer. The GAM for mid-summer indicates that fin whale hotspots were positively related to SST, EKE and acoustically determined krill biomass. The GAM for late-summer indicates the hotspots were negatively related to net-based krill abundance and positively related to acoustic krill biomass and EKE. This study is important because environmental determinants of fin whale hotspots may be used as reference points for implementing future conservation plans for their recovering populations.

Interannual variability in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) density at South Georgia, Southern Ocean: 1997–2013

Abstract Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are a key species in Southern Ocean ecosystems, maintaining very large numbers of predators, and fluctuations in their abundance can affect the overall structure and functioning of the ecosystems. The interannual variability in the abundance and biomass of krill was examined using a 17-year time-series of acoustic observations undertaken in the Western Core Box (WCB) survey area to the northwest of South Georgia, Southern Ocean. Krill targets were identified in acoustic data using a multifrequency identification window and converted to krill density using the Stochastic Distorted-Wave Born Approximation target strength model. Krill density ranged over several orders of magnitude (0–10 000 g m−2) and its distribution was highly skewed with many zero observations. Within each survey, the mean krill density was significantly correlated with the top 7% of the maximum krill densities observed. Hence, only the densest krill swarms detected in any one year drove the mean krill density estimates for the WCB in that year. WCB krill density (µ, mean density for the area) showed several years (1997/1998, 2001–2003, 2005–2007) of high values (µ &gt; 30 g m−2) interspersed with years (1999/2000, 2004, 2009/2010) of low density (µ &lt; 30 g m−2). This pattern showed three different periods, with fluctuations every 4–5 years. Cross correlation analyses of variability in krill density with current and lagged indices of ocean (sea surface temperature, SST and El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and atmospheric variability (Southern Annular Mode) found the highest correlation between krill density and winter SST (August SST) from the preceding year. A quadratic regression (r2 = 0.42, p &lt; 0.05) provides a potentially valuable index for forecasting change in this ecosystem.

Productivity and linkages of the food web of the southern region of the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf

The productivity and linkages in the food web of the southern region of the west Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf were investigated using a multi-trophic level mass balance model. Data collected during the Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics field program were combined with data from the literature on the abundance and diet composition of zooplankton, fish, seabirds and marine mammals to calculate energy flows in the food web and to infer the overall food web structure at the annual level. Sensitivity analyses investigated the effects of variability in growth and biomass of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and in the biomass of Antarctic krill predators on the structure and energy fluxes in the food web. Scenario simulations provided insights into the potential responses of the food web to a reduced contribution of large phytoplankton (diatom) production to total primary production, and to reduced consumption of primary production by Antarctic krill and mesozooplankton coincident with increased consumption by microzooplankton and salps. Model-derived estimates of primary production were 187–207gCm−2y−1, which are consistent with observed values (47–351gCm−2y−1). Simulations showed that Antarctic krill provide the majority of energy needed to sustain seabird and marine mammal production, thereby exerting a bottom-up control on higher trophic level predators. Energy transfer to top predators via mesozooplanton was a less efficient pathway, and salps were a production loss pathway because little of the primary production they consumed was passed to higher trophic levels. Increased predominance of small phytoplankton (nanoflagellates and cryptophytes) reduced the production of Antarctic krill and of its predators, including seabirds and seals.

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Krill biomass and aggregation structure in relation to tidal cycle in a penguin foraging region off the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract Bernard, K. S., and Steinberg, D. K. 2013. Krill biomass and aggregation structure in relation to tidal cycle in a penguin foraging region off the Western Antarctic Peninsula. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 834–849 Antarctic krill are a key component of the diet of Adélie penguins inhabiting the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), yet our understanding of the variability of krill distribution patterns within nearshore penguin feeding grounds is limited. A recent study of the foraging patterns of penguins breeding in the northern WAP suggests that tidal phase plays a role in foraging distance. We used acoustics to examine biomass and aggregation structure of krill in the penguin foraging grounds off Palmer Station during diurnal and semi-diurnal tides. Nearshore, integrated krill biomass during diurnal tides was significantly higher than during semi-diurnal tides. Krill aggregations were also shallower, closer together, and larger in dimension during diurnal tides. Conversely, krill aggregations had higher volumetric biomass and abundance during semi-diurnal tides. Further offshore, at the head of the Palmer Deep canyon, krill aggregations were similar to those observed nearshore during diurnal tides (i.e. shallow, close together, and large in dimension). Since krill aggregation structure strongly influences availability as a potential prey source, we suggest that foraging behavior of Adélie penguins in this region is strongly linked to the variability in nearshore krill aggregation structure as well as biomass.

Erratum to: Long-term changes in Krill biomass and distribution in the Barents Sea: are the changes mainly related to capelin stock size and temperature conditions?

Erratum to: Long-term changes in Krill biomass and distribution in the Barents Sea: are the changes mainly related to capelin stock size and temperature conditions?

Warming effects in the western Antarctic Peninsula ecosystem: the role of population dynamic models for explaining and predicting penguin trends

AbstractThe western Antarctica Peninsula and Scotia Sea ecosystems appear to be driven by complex links between climatic variables, primary productivity, krill and Avian predators. There are several studies reporting statistical relationships between climate, krill and Penguin population size. The Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), Chinstrap (P. antarctica) and Gentoo (P. papua) penguins appear to be influenced by interannual variability in sea‐ice extent and krill biomass. In this paper we developed simple conceptual models to decipher the role of climate and krill fluctuations on the population dynamics of these three Pygoscelis penguin species inhabiting the Antarctic Peninsula region. Our results suggest that the relevant processes underlying the population dynamics of these penguin species at King George Island (South Shetland Islands) are intra‐specific competition and the combined effects of krill abundance and sea‐ice cover. Our results using population theoretical models appear to support that climate change, specifically regional warming on the western Antarctic Peninsula, represents a major driver. At our study site, penguins showed species‐specific responses to climate change. While Chinstrap penguins were only influenced by krill abundance, the contrasting population trends of Adélie and Gentoo penguins appear to be better explained by the “sea‐ice hypothesis”. We think that proper population dynamic modeling and theory are essential for deciphering and proposing the ecological mechanisms underlying dynamics of these penguin populations.

A brief introduction to the issue of climate and marine fisheries

Climatic variability has profound effects on the distribution, abundance and catch of oceanic fish species around the world. The major modes of this climate variability include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) also referred to as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Other modes of climate variability include the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). ENSO events are the principle source of interannual global climate variability, centred in the ocean–atmosphere circulations of the tropical Pacific Ocean and operating on seasonal to interannual time scales. ENSO and the strength of its climate teleconnections are modulated on decadal timescales by the IPO. The time scale of the IOD is seasonal to interannual. The SAM in the mid to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere operates in the range of 50–60 days. A prominent teleconnection pattern throughout the year in the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which modulates the strength of the westerlies across the North Atlantic in winter, has an impact on the catches of marine fisheries. ENSO events affect the distribution of tuna species in the equatorial Pacific, especially skipjack tuna as well as the abundance and distribution of fish along the western coasts of the Americas. The IOD modulates the distribution of tuna populations and catches in the Indian Ocean, whilst the NAO affects cod stocks heavily exploited in the Atlantic Ocean. The SAM, and its effects on sea surface temperatures influence krill biomass and fisheries catches in the Southern Ocean. The response of oceanic fish stocks to these sources of climatic variability can be used as a guide to the likely effects of climate change on these valuable resources.

Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica

Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations–or “paradigms of change”–that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth’s most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields.

Sensitivity analysis identifies high influence sites for estimates of penguin krill consumption on the Antarctic Peninsula

AbstractKrill consumption by natural predators represents a critical link between surveys and models of standing krill biomass and the design of a sustainable krill fishery for the Scotia Sea. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a significant component of diet for penguins breeding in this region and, consequently, uncertainties regarding penguin population abundances contribute to uncertainties in krill predation estimates. We use a comprehensive database of Antarctic penguin abundances to identify 14 breeding colonies that contribute most significantly to uncertainty regarding the total number of pygoscelid penguins breeding in this region. We find that a high quality survey of Zavodovski Island alone would decrease uncertainty in total population by 24.8%, whereas high quality surveys of all 14 “high-influence” locations would decrease uncertainty by almost 72%. Updated population estimates at these sites should be considered top priority for future fieldwork in the region. Our results are based on a robust quantitative method for assessing data priorities in estimating krill consumption that is easily extended to other groups of krill predators.

Diet of a specialist in a changing environment: the crabeater seal along the western Antarctic Peninsula

Although crabeater seals Lobodon carcinophaga are among the most abundant con- sumers of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba, their diet has rarely been studied throughout most of the species' range. Using δ 13 C and δ 15 N values in vibrissae from 53 seals, we examined the trophic ecology of crabeater seals from the western Antarctic Peninsula (wAP) in 2001, 2002 and 2007. We observed a wide variability in individual seal mean δ 13 C values, which ranged from −19.8‰ to −24.9‰ , whereas mean δ 15 N value varied from 5.4‰ to 7.9‰. We identified a positive significant effect of seal mass on δ 13 C values, as well as a significant seasonal effect (higher δ 13 C values in austral winter), which likely resulted from changes in the composition of the community of pri- mary producers. δ 15 N values for crabeater seals, on the other hand, were affected by year, with individuals in 2002 having higher δ 15 N values. The median (with range) contribution of Antarctic krill to the diet of crabeater seals, as estimated using the Bayesian mixing model MixSIR, was 87.9% (81.2 to 94.8%). During 2002, krill biomass in the wAP was at one of its lowest levels during the last 2 decades, coinciding with a slight reduction in the importance of krill for the diet of the seals that year, which reached 84.5% (75.1 to 92.4%). Despite the relative plasticity observed in the diet of crabeater seals, it is unknown to what extent, and at what rate, crabeater seals might be able to switch to a more generalized diet, which might impact their fitness, given the ongoing environmental change along the wAP.

Interannual variability in krill off Baja California in the period 1997–2005

We document interannual changes in the species composition of euphausiids inhabiting the waters off Baja California during the period of 1997–2005. Thirty-two euphausiid species were identified from seventeen cruises, with the dominant species being Euphausia eximia, Euphausia gibboides, Nyctiphanes simplex, Thysanoessa gregaria, Nematoscelis difficilis, and Stylocheiron affine (present in 74–92% of the samples). Species composition had the strongest difference between coastal (Vizcaino Bay and the Ulloa Gulf) and oceanic waters. The coastal shelf was dominated almost exclusively by N. simplex while the oceanic regions showed a high diversity. In oceanic waters the most abundant species was N. difficilis off both the northern (32–30°N) and the central (30–24°N) Baja California peninsula. The highest krill biomass, however, was recorded in the central region in January 1998 during an El Niño and consisted principally of abundant larvae of E. eximia. La Niña was characterized by an increase of the ‘transition zone’ species (E. gibboides, N. difficilis, T. gregaria) and the subarctic Euphausia pacifica. This last even entered in Vizcaino Bay but was not apparent in the central region compared to the north. High abundance of E. pacifica was also observed in July 2002 and was linked to subarctic water intrusion and July 2005. Some swarms of Thysanoessa spinifera were observed during April and July of 2005. The presence of subarctic species E. pacifica and T. spinifera in Baja California waters contrasted with their strong decrease in northern sectors of the California Current System during 2005. This biological information, joined with high upwelling activity (compared to delayed upwelling off Oregon and northern California), reinforces the importance of regional studies in eastern boundary currents.

A foodweb model to explore uncertainties in the South Georgia shelf pelagic ecosystem

Foodweb models provide a useful framework for compiling data on biomass, production, consumption and feeding relationships. They are particularly useful for identifying gaps and inconsistencies in the data, and for exploring plausible scenarios of change. We compiled data on the pelagic foodweb of the South Georgia shelf, which is one of the most intensively studied areas in the Southern Ocean. The data suggest that current average annual copepod production is three times that of Antarctic krill and that flying seabirds and fish are, respectively, responsible for 25% and 21% of local krill consumption. The most striking inconsistency was that estimated consumption of fish was 5 times their estimated production. We developed a static mass balance model of the foodweb representing one of many possible solutions to the inconsistencies in the data. The model included sufficient fish biomass to balance the original consumption estimate, and consequently fish became the main krill consumers. Nonetheless, only 74% of local krill production was consumed by predators, suggesting that there are additional mortality sources that we did not explicitly model. We developed further models to explore scenarios incorporating plausible climate-driven reductions in krill biomass. In scenarios with unchanged predator diets, an 80% reduction in krill biomass resulted in a 73% reduction in vertebrate biomass. However, when predators with diverse diets were able to switch to feeding on alternative zooplankton prey, total vertebrate biomass was maintained at current levels. Scenarios in which 80% of krill biomass was replaced with copepod biomass required 28% more primary production because the estimated consumption rate of copepods is higher than that of krill. The additional copepod biomass did not alter the consequences for vertebrates. These scenarios illustrate the wide range of potential consequences of a shift from a krill to a copepod dominated system in a warming climate. They suggest that both maintenance and dramatic reduction of vertebrate production are plausible outcomes, although the former requires major changes in predator diets.