Kilonova Research Articles

Searching for Gravitational Wave Optical Counterparts with the Zwicky Transient Facility: Summary of O4a

During the first half of the fourth observing run (O4a) of the International Gravitational Wave Network, the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) conducted a systematic search for kilonova (KN) counterparts to binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star–black hole (NSBH) merger candidates. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the five high-significance (False Alarm Rate less than 1 yr−1) BNS and NSBH candidates in O4a. Our follow-up campaigns relied on both target-of-opportunity observations and re-weighting of the nominal survey schedule to maximize coverage. We describe the toolkit we have been developing, Fritz, an instance of SkyPortal, instrumental in coordinating and managing our telescope scheduling, candidate vetting, and follow-up observations through a user-friendly interface. ZTF covered a total of 2841 deg2 within the skymaps of the high-significance GW events, reaching a median depth of g ≈ 20.2 mag. We circulated 15 candidates, but found no viable KN counterpart to any of the GW events. Based on the ZTF non-detections of the high-significance events in O4a, we used a Bayesian approach, nimbus, to quantify the posterior probability of KN model parameters that are consistent with our non-detections. Our analysis favors KNe with initial absolute magnitude fainter than −16 mag. The joint posterior probability of a GW170817-like KN associated with all our O4a follow-ups was 64%. Additionally, we use a survey simulation software, simsurvey, to determine that our combined filtered efficiency to detect a GW170817-like KN is 36%, when considering the 5 confirmed astrophysical events in O3 (1 BNS and 4 NSBH events), along with our O4a follow-ups. Following Kasliwal et al., we derived joint constraints on the underlying KN luminosity function based on our O3 and O4a follow-ups, determining that no more than 76% of KNe fading at 1 mag day−1 can peak at a magnitude brighter than −17.5 mag.

ELEPHANT: ExtragaLactic alErt Pipeline for Hostless AstroNomical Transients

Context. Transient astronomical events that exhibit no discernible association with a host galaxy are commonly referred to as hostless. These rare phenomena can offer unique insights into the properties and evolution of stars and galaxies. However, the sheer number of transients captured by contemporary high-cadence astronomical surveys renders the manual identification of all potential hostless transients impractical. Therefore, creating a systematic identification tool is crucial for studying these elusive events. Aims. We present the ExtragaLactic alErt Pipeline for Hostless AstroNomical Transients (ELEPHANT), a framework for filtering hostless transients in astronomical data streams. It was designed to process alerts from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) presented in the Fink broker; however, its underlying concept can be applied to other data sources. Methods. We used Fink to access all the ZTF alerts produced between January 2022 and December 2023, selecting alerts associated with extragalactic transients reported in SIMBAD or TNS, as well as those classified as supernovae (SNe) or kilonovae (KNe) by the machine learning (ML) classifiers within the broker. We then processed the associated stamps using a sequence of image analysis techniques to retrieve hostless candidates. Results. We find that ≲2% of all analyzed transients are potentially hostless. Among them, only ~10% have a spectroscopic class reported on TNS, with type Ia SNe being the most common class, followed by superluminous SNe. In particular, among the host-less candidates retrieved by our pipeline, there is SN 2018ibb, which has been proposed to be a pair instability SN candidate, and SN 2022ann, one of only five known SNe Icn. When no class is reported on TNS, the dominant classes are quasi-stellar object (QSO) and SN candidates, with the former obtained from SIMBAD and the latter inferred using the Fink ML classifier. Conclusions. ELEPHANT represents an effective strategy to filter extragalactic events within large and complex astronomical alert streams. There are many applications for which this pipeline will be useful, ranging from transient selection for follow-up to studies of transient environments. The results presented here demonstrate the feasibility of developing specially crafted pipelines that enable a variety of scientific studies based on large-scale surveys.

Collisional and radiative data for tellurium ions in kilonovae modelling and laboratory benchmarks

ABSTRACT Tellurium is a primary candidate for the identification of the 2.1 $\, \mu$m emission line in kilonovae (KNe) spectra AT2017gfo and GRB230307A. Despite this, there is currently an insufficient amount of atomic data available for this species. We calculate the required atomic structure and collisional data, particularly the data required for accurate non-local-thermodynamic-equilibrium (NLTE) modelling of the low temperatures and densities in KNe. We use a multiconfigurational Dirac–Hartree–Fock method to produce optimized one-electron orbitals for Te i-iii. As a result energy levels and Einstein A-coefficients for Te i-iii have been calculated. These orbitals are then employed within Dirac R-matrix collision calculations to provide electron-impact-excitation collision strengths that were subsequently averaged according to a thermal Maxwellian distribution. Subsequent tardis simulations using this new atomic data reveal no significant changes to the synthetic spectra due to the very minor contribution of Te at early epochs. NLTE simulations with the colradpy package reveal optically thin spectra consistent with the increasing prominence of the Te iii 2.1 $\, \mu$m line as the KNe ejecta cools. This is reinforced by the estimation of luminosities at nebular KNe conditions. New line ratios for both observation and laboratory benchmarks of the atomic data are proposed.

Diversity in Fermi/GBM Gamma-Ray Bursts: New Insights from Machine Learning

Classification of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) has been a long-standing puzzle in high-energy astrophysics. Recent observations challenge the traditional short versus long viewpoint, where long GRBs are thought to originate from the collapse of massive stars and short GRBs from compact binary mergers. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been instrumental in addressing this problem, revealing five distinct GRB groups within the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) light-curve data, two of which are associated with kilonovae (KNe). In this work, we extend our analysis to the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor catalog and identify five clusters using unsupervised ML techniques, consistent with the Swift/BAT results. These five clusters are well separated in the fluence-duration plane, hinting at a potential link between fluence, duration, and complexities (or structures) in the light curves of GRBs. Further, we confirm two distinct classes of KN-associated GRBs. The presence of GRB 170817A in one of the two KN-associated clusters lends evidence to the hypothesis that this class of GRBs could potentially be produced by binary neutron star mergers. The second KN-associated GRB cluster could potentially originate from neutron star–black hole mergers. Future multimessenger observations of compact binaries in gravitational waves and electromagnetic waves can be paramount in understanding these clusters better.

GRB 211211A: The Case for an Engine-powered over r-process-powered Blue Kilonova

The recent gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 211211A provides the earliest (∼5 hr) data of a kilonova (KN) event, displaying bright (∼1042 erg s−1) and blue early emission. Previously, this KN was explained using simplistic multicomponent fitting methods. Here, in order to understand the physical origin of the KN emission in GRB 211211A, we employ an analytic multizone model for r-process-powered KNe. We find that r-process-powered KN models alone cannot explain the fast temporal evolution and the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the observed emission. Specifically, (i) r-process models require high ejecta mass to match early luminosity, which overpredicts late-time emission, while (ii) red KN models that reproduce late emission underpredict early luminosity. We propose an alternative scenario involving early contributions from the GRB central engine via a late low-power jet, consistent with plateau emission in short GRBs and GeV emission detected by Fermi-LAT at ∼104 s after GRB 211211A. Such late central engine activity, with an energy budget of ∼a few percent of that of the prompt jet, combined with a single red KN ejecta component, can naturally explain the light curve and SED of the observed emission, with the late-jet–ejecta interaction reproducing the early blue emission and r-process heating reproducing the late red emission. This supports claims that late low-power engine activity after prompt emission may be common. We encourage early follow-up observations of future nearby GRBs and compact binary merger events to reveal more about the central engine of GRBs and r-process events.

Rapid kilonova evolution: Recombination and reverberation effects

Kilonovae (KNe) are one of the fastest types of optical transients known, cooling rapidly in the first few days following their neutron-star merger origin. We show here that KN spectral features go through rapid recombination transitions, with features due to elements in the new ionisation state emerging quickly. Due to time-delay effects of the rapidly expanding KN, a ‘wave’ of these new features passing though the ejecta should be a detectable phenomenon. In particular, isolated line features will emerge as blueshifted absorption features first, gradually evolving into P Cygni features and then pure emission features. In this analysis, we present the evolution of individual exposures of the KN AT2017gfo observed with VLT/X-shooter, which together comprise X-shooter’s first epoch spectrum (1.43 days post-merger). The spectra of these ‘sub-epochs’ show a significant evolution across the roughly one hour of observations, including a decrease in the blackbody temperature and photospheric velocity. The early cooling is even more rapid than that inferred from later photospheric epochs and suggests that a fixed power-law relation between the temperature and time does not describe the data. The cooling constrains the recombination wave, where a Sr II interpretation of the AT2017gfo ∼1 μm feature predicts both a specific timing for the feature emergence and its early spectral shape, including the very weak emission component observed at about 1.43 days. This empirically indicates a strong correspondence between the radiation temperature of the blackbody and the ejecta’s electron temperature. Furthermore, this reverberation analysis suggests that temporal modelling is important for interpreting individual spectra and that higher-cadence spectral series, especially when concentrated at specific times, can provide strong constraints on KN line identifications and the ejecta physics. Given the use of such short-timescale information, we lay out improved observing strategies for future KN monitoring.

The thermalization of γ-rays in radioactive expanding ejecta: a simple model and its application for Kilonovae and Ia SNe

ABSTRACT A semi-analytic approximation is derived for the time-dependent fraction $f_\gamma (t)$ of the energy deposited by radioactive decay $\gamma$-rays in a homologously expanding plasma of general structure. An analytic approximation is given for spherically symmetric plasma distributions. Applied to Kilonovae (KNe) associated with neutron stars mergers and Type Ia supernovae, our semi-analytic and analytic approximations reproduce, with a few per cent and 10 per cent accuracy, respectively, the energy deposition rates, $\dot{Q}_{\rm dep}$, obtained in numeric Monte Carlo calculations. The time $t_\gamma$ beyond which $\gamma$-ray deposition is inefficient is determined by an effective frequency-independent $\gamma$-ray opacity $\kappa _{\gamma ,\text{eff}}$, $t_\gamma = \sqrt{\kappa _{\gamma ,\text{eff}}\langle \Sigma \rangle t^2}$, where $\langle \Sigma \rangle \propto t^{-2}$ is the average plasma column density. For $\beta$-decay dominated energy release, $\kappa _{\gamma ,\text{eff}}$ is typically close to the effective Compton scattering opacity, $\kappa _{\gamma ,\text{eff}} \approx 0.025$ cm$^{2}$ g$^{-1}$ with a weak dependence on composition. For KNe, $\kappa _{\gamma ,\text{eff}}$ depends mainly on the initial electron fraction $Y_e$, $\kappa _{\gamma ,\text{eff}} \approx 0.03(0.05)$ cm$^{2}$ g$^{-1}$ for $Y_e \gtrsim (\lesssim) 0.25$ (in contrast with earlier work that found $\kappa _{\gamma ,\text{eff}}$ larger by 1–2 orders of magnitude for low $Y_e$), and is insensitive to the (large) nuclear physics uncertainties. Determining $t_\gamma$ from observations will therefore measure the ejecta $\langle \Sigma \rangle t^2$, providing a stringent test of models. For $\langle \Sigma \rangle t^2=2\times 10^{11}~{\rm g\, {cm}^{-2}\, s^2}$, a typical value expected for KNe, $t_\gamma \approx 1$ d.

The Peculiar Precursor of a Gamma-Ray Burst from a Binary Merger Involving a Magnetar

The milestone discovery of GW170817-GRB 170817A-AT 2017gfo has shown that gravitational waves (GWs) could be produced during the merger of a neutron star–neutron star/black hole and that in electromagnetic (EM) waves, a gamma-ray burst (GRB) and a kilonova (KN) are generated in sequence after the merger. Observationally, however, EM properties before the merger phase are still unclear. Here we report a peculiar precursor in a KN-associated long-duration GRB 211211A, providing evidence of the EM before the merger. This precursor lasts ∼0.2 s, and the waiting time between the precursor and the main burst is ∼1 s, comparable to that between GW170817 and GRB 170817A. The spectrum of the precursor could be well fit with a nonthermal cutoff power-law model instead of a blackbody. In particular, a ∼22 Hz quasiperiodic oscillation candidate (∼3σ) is detected in the precursor. These temporal and spectral properties indicate that this precursor is probably produced by a catastrophic flare accompanied with magnetoelastic or crustal oscillations of a magnetar in a binary compact merger. The strong magnetic field of the magnetar can also account for the prolonged duration of GRB 211211A. However, it poses a challenge to reconcile the rather short lifetime of a magnetar with the rather long spiraling time of a binary neutron star system only by the GW radiation before the merger.

Multi-messenger prospects for black hole – neutron star mergers in the O4 and O5 runs

The existence of merging black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries has been ascertained through the observation of their gravitational wave (GW) signals. However, to date, no definitive electromagnetic (EM) emission has been confidently associated with these mergers. Such an association could help unravel crucial information on these systems, for example, their BH spin distribution, the equation of state (EoS) of the neutron star and the rate of heavy element production. We modeled the multi-messenger (MM) emission from BHNS mergers detectable during the fourth (O4) and fifth (O5) observing runs of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) GW detector network in order to provide detailed predictions that can help enhance the effectiveness of observational efforts and extract the highest possible scientific information from such remarkable events. Our methodology is based on a population synthesis approach, which includes the modeling of the signal-to-noise ratio of the GW signal in the detectors, the GW-inferred sky localization of the source, the kilonova (KN) optical and near-infrared light curves, the relativistic jet gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission peak photon flux, and the GRB afterglow light curves in the radio, optical, and X-ray bands. The resulting prospects for BHNS MM detections during O4 are not promising, with an LVK GW detection rate of 15.0−8.8+15.4 yr−1, but joint MM rates of ∼10−1 yr−1 for the KN and ∼10−2 yr−1 for the jet-related emission. In O5, we found an overall increase in expected detection rates by around an order of magnitude, owing to both the enhanced sensitivity of the GW detector network and the coming online of future EM facilities. Considering variations in the NS EoS and BH spin distribution, we find that the detection rates can increase further by up to a factor of several tens. Finally, we discuss direct searches for the GRB radio afterglow with large field-of-view instruments during O5 and beyond as a new possible follow-up strategy in the context of ever-dimming prospects for KN detection due to the recession of the GW horizon.

On a Spectral Method for β-particle Bound Excitation Collisions in Kilonovae

The interaction of β-particles with the weakly ionized plasma background is an important mechanism for powering the kilonova (KN) transient signal from neutron star mergers. For this purpose, we present an implementation of the approximate fast-particle collision kernel, described by Inokuti following the seminal formulation of Bethe, in a spectral solver of the Vlasov–Maxwell–Boltzmann equation. In particular, we expand the fast-particle plane-wave atomic excitation kernel into coefficients of the Hermite basis, and derive the relevant discrete spectral system. In this fast-particle limit, the approach permits the direct use of atomic data, including optical oscillator strengths, normally applied to photon–matter interaction. The resulting spectral matrix is implemented in the MASS-APP spectral solver framework, in a way that avoids full matrix storage per spatial zone. We numerically verify aspects of the matrix construction, and present a proof-of-principle 3D simulation of a 2D axisymmetric KN ejecta snapshot. Our preliminary numerical results indicate that a reasonable choice of Hermite basis parameters for β-particles in the KN is a bulk velocity parameter u = 0, a thermal velocity parameter α = 0.5c, and a 9 × 9 × 9 mode velocity basis set (Hermite orders of 0–8 in each dimension). For interior-ejecta sample zones, we estimate that the ratio of thermalization from large-angle (≳2.°5) bound excitation scattering to total thermalization is ∼0.002–0.003.

Kilonova Parameter Estimation with LSST at Vera C. Rubin Observatory

The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) opens a new opportunity to rapidly survey the southern sky at optical wavelengths (i.e., ugrizy bands). In this study, we aim to test the possibility of using LSST observations to constrain the mass and velocity of different kilonova (KN) ejecta components from the observation of a combined set of light curves from afterglows of γ-ray bursts and KNe. We used a sample of simulated light curves from the aforementioned events as they would have been seen during the LSST survey to study how the choice of observing strategies impacts the parameter estimation. We found that the design of observing strategy that is the best compromise between light-curve coverage, observed filters, and reliability of the fit involves a high number of visits with long-gap pairs of about 4 hr every two nights in the same or different filters. The features of the observing strategy will allow us to recognize the different stages of the evolution of the light curve and gather observations in at least three filters.

Late Engine Activity in Neutron Star Mergers and Its Cocoon: An Alternative Scenario for the Blue Kilonova

Follow-up observations of short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) have continuously unveiled late extended/plateau emissions, attributed to jet launch due to late engine activity, the nature of which remains enigmatic. Observations of GW170817 have confirmed that sGRBs are linked to neutron star (NS) mergers, and discovered a kilonova (KN) transient. Nevertheless, the origin of the early blue KN in GW170817 remains unclear. Here, we investigate the propagation of late jets in the merger ejecta. By analytically modeling jet dynamics, we determine the properties of the jet-heated cocoon, and estimate its cooling emission. Our results reveal that late jets generate significantly brighter cocoons compared to prompt jets, primarily due to reduced energy loss by adiabatic cooling. Notably, with typical late jets, emission from the cocoon trapped inside the ejecta can reproduce the blue KN emission. We estimate that the forthcoming Einstein Probe mission will detect the early cocoon emission at a rate of ∼2.1−1.6+3.2 yr−1, and that optical/UV follow-ups in the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA O5 run will be able to detect ∼1.0−0.7+1.5 cocoon emission events. As an electromagnetic counterpart, this emission provides an independent tool to probe NS mergers in the Universe, complementing insights from sGRBs and gravitational waves.

Could a Kilonova Kill: A Threat Assessment

Binary neutron star mergers produce high-energy emissions from several physically different sources, including a gamma-ray burst (GRB) and its afterglow, a kilonova (KN), and, at late times, a remnant many parsecs in size. Ionizing radiation from these sources can be dangerous for life on Earth-like planets when located too close. Work to date has explored the substantial danger posed by the GRB to on-axis observers; here we focus instead on the potential threats posed to nearby off-axis observers. Our analysis is based largely on observations of the GW170817/GRB 170817A multi-messenger event, as well as theoretical predictions. For baseline KN parameters, we find that the X-ray emission from the afterglow may be lethal out to ∼1 pc and the off-axis gamma-ray emission may threaten a range out to ∼4 pc, whereas the greatest threat comes years after the explosion, from the cosmic rays accelerated by the KN blast, which can be lethal out to distances up to ∼11 pc. The distances quoted here are typical, but the values have significant uncertainties and depend on the viewing angle, ejected mass, and explosion energy in ways we quantify. Assessing the overall threat to Earth-like planets, KNe have a similar kill distance to supernovae, but are far less common. However, our results rely on the scant available KN data, and multi-messenger observations will clarify the danger posed by such events.

TLW: A Real-Time Light Curve Classification Algorithm for Transients Based on Machine Learning

The real-time light curve classification of transients is helpful in searching for rare transients. We propose a new algorithm based on machine learning, namely the Temporary Convective Network and Light Gradient Boosting Machine Combined with Weight Module Algorithm (TLW). The TLW algorithm can classify the photometric simulation transients data in g, r, i bands provided via PLAsTiCC, typing Tidal Disruption Event (TDE), Kilonova (KN), Type Ia supernova (SNIa), and Type I Super-luminous supernova (SLSN-I). When comparing the real-time classification results of the TLW algorithm and six other algorithms, such as Rapid, we found that the TLW algorithm has the best comprehensive performance indexes and has the advantages of high precision and high efficiency. The average accuracy of TLW is 84.54%. The average implementation timings of the TLW algorithm for classifying four types of transients is 123.09 s, which is based on TensorFlow’s architecture in windows and python. We use three indicators to prove that the TLW algorithm is superior to the classical Rapid algorithm, including Confusion Matrix, PR curve, and ROC curve. We also use the TLW algorithm to classify ZTF real transients. The real-time classification results for ZTF transients show that the accuracy of the TLW algorithm is higher than the other six algorithms.

Gravitational-wave Electromagnetic Counterpart Korean Observatory (GECKO): GECKO Follow-up Observation of GW190425

One of the keys to the success of multimessenger astronomy is the rapid identification of the electromagnetic wave counterpart, kilonova (KN), of the gravitational-wave (GW) event. Despite its importance, it is hard to find a KN associated with a GW event, due to a poorly constrained GW localization map and numerous signals that could be confused as a KN. Here, we present the Gravitational-wave Electromagnetic wave Counterpart Korean Observatory (GECKO) project, the GECKO observation of GW190425, and prospects of GECKO in the fourth observing run (O4) of the GW detectors. We outline our follow-up observation strategies during O3. In particular, we describe our galaxy-targeted observation criteria that prioritize based on galaxy properties. Armed with this strategy, we performed an optical and/or near-infrared follow-up observation of GW190425, the first binary neutron star merger event during the O3 run. Despite a vast localization area of 7460 deg2, we observed 621 host galaxy candidates, corresponding to 29.5% of the scores we assigned, with most of them observed within the first 3 days of the GW event. Ten transients were discovered during this search, including a new transient with a host galaxy. No plausible KN was found, but we were still able to constrain the properties of potential KNe using upper limits. The GECKO observation demonstrates that GECKO can possibly uncover a GW170817-like KN at a distance <200 Mpc if the localization area is of the order of hundreds of square degrees, providing a bright prospect for the identification of GW electromagnetic wave counterparts during the O4 run.

Kilonova-Targeting Lightcurve Classification for Wide Field Survey Telescope

With the enhancement of the sensitivity of gravitational wave (GW) detectors and capabilities of large survey facilities, such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the 2.5 m Wide Field Survey Telescope (WFST), we now have the potential to detect an increasing number of distant kilonova (KN). However, distinguishing KN from the plethora of detected transients in ongoing and future follow-up surveys presents a significant challenge. In this study, our objective is to establish an efficient classification mechanism tailored for the follow-up survey conducted by WFST, with a specific focus on identifying KN associated with GW. We employ a novel temporal convolutional neural network architecture, trained using simulated multi-band photometry lasting for 3 days by WFST, accompanied by contextual information, i.e., luminosity distance information by GW. By comparison of the choices of contextual information, we can reach 95% precision and 94% recall for our best model. It also performs good validation of photometry data on AT2017gfo and AT2019npv. Furthermore, we investigate the ability of the model to distinguish KN in a GW follow-up survey. We conclude that there is over 80% probability that we can capture true KN in 20 selected candidates among ∼250 detected astrophysical transients that have passed the real–bogus filter and cross-matching.

Black hole–neutron star mergers: using kilonovae to constrain the equation of state

ABSTRACT The merging of a binary system involving two neutron stars (NSs), or a black hole (BH) and an NS, often results in the emission of an electromagnetic (EM) transient. One component of this EM transient is the epic explosion known as a kilonova (KN). The characteristics of the KN emission can be used to probe the equation of state (EoS) of NS matter responsible for its formation. We predict KN light curves from computationally simulated BH–NS mergers, by using the 3D radiative transfer code possis. We investigate two EoSs spanning most of the allowed range of the mass–radius diagram. We also consider a soft EoS compatible with the observational data within the so-called 2-families scenario in which hadronic stars co-exist with strange stars. Computed results show that the 2-families scenario, characterized by a soft EoS, should not produce a KN unless the mass of the binary components are small (MBH ≤ 6 M⊙ and MNS ≤ 1.4 M⊙) and the BH is rapidly spinning (χBH ≥ 0.3). In contrast, a strong KN signal potentially observable from future surveys (e.g. the Vera Rubin Observatory) is produced in the 1-family scenario for a wider region of the parameter space, and even for non-rotating BHs (χBH = 0) when MBH = 4 M⊙ and MNS = 1.2 M⊙. We also provide a fit that allows for the calculation of the unbound mass from the observed KN magnitude, without running timely and costly radiative transfer simulations. Findings presented in this paper will be used to interpret light curves anticipated during the fourth observing run (O4), of the advanced LIGO, advanced Virgo, and KAGRA interferometers and thus to constrain the EoS of NS matter.

Predictions for electromagnetic counterparts to Neutron Star mergers discovered during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs 4 and 5

ABSTRACT We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source software framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using current sensitivity and uptime values as well as using predicted sensitivites for the next observing run (O5). We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90 per cent confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95 per cent confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources for search and follow-up observations, including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad-bands and time-scales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced in response to updated information such as refined merger rates and NS mass distributions. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of 2023, October 14), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95 percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detections so far in O4.

NLTE spectra of kilonovae

ABSTRACT The electromagnetic transient following a binary neutron star merger is known as a kilonova (KN). Owing to rapid expansion velocities and small ejecta masses, KNe rapidly transition into the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) regime. In this study, we present synthetic NLTE spectra of KNe from 5 to 20 d after merger using the sumo spectral synthesis code. We study three homogeneous composition, 1D multizone models with characteristic electron fractions of Ye ∼ 0.35, 0.25, and 0.15. We find that emission features in the spectra tend to emerge in windows of reduced line blocking, as the ejecta are still only partially transparent even at 20 d. For the Ye ∼ 0.35 (lanthanide-free) ejecta, we find that the neutral and singly ionized species of Rb, Sr, Y, and Zr dominate the spectra, all with good potential for identification. We directly test and confirm an impact of Sr on the 10 000 Å spectral region in lanthanide-free ejecta, but also see that its signatures may be complex. We suggest the Rb i$\rm {5p^{1}}$–$\rm {5s^{1}}$ 7900 Å transition as a candidate for the λ0 ∼ 7500–7900 Å P-Cygni feature in AT2017gfo. For the Ye ∼ 0.25 and 0.15 compositions, lanthanides are dominant in the spectral formation, in particular Nd, Sm, and Dy. We identify key processes in KN spectral formation, notably that scattering and fluorescence play important roles even up to 20 d after merger, implying that the KN ejecta are not yet optically thin at this time.

Rapidly Evolving Transients in Archival ZTF Public Alerts

We search the archival Zwicky Transient Facility public survey for rapidly evolving transient (RET) candidates based on well-defined criteria between 2018 May and 2021 December. The search yielded 19 bona fide RET candidates, corresponding to a discovery rate of ∼5.2 events per year. Even with a Galactic latitude cut of 20°, eight of the 19 events (∼42%) are Galactic, including one with a light-curve shape closely resembling that of the GW170817 kilonova (KN). An additional event is a nova in M31. Four out of the 19 events (∼21%) are confirmed extragalactic RETs (one confirmed here for the first time) and the origin of six additional events cannot be determined. We did not find any extragalactic events resembling the GW170817 KN, from which we obtain an upper limit on the volumetric rate of GW170817-like KNe of R ≤ 2400 Gpc−3 yr−1 (95% confidence). These results can be used for quantifying contaminants to RET searches in transient alert streams, specifically when searching for KNe independently of gravitational-wave and gamma-ray-burst triggers.