Kiel Climate Model Research Articles

Local and Remote Causes of the Equatorial Pacific Cold Sea Surface Temperature Bias in the Kiel Climate Model

Abstract We investigate the origin of the equatorial Pacific cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its link to wind biases, local and remote, in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The cold bias is common in climate models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In the coupled experiments with the KCM, the interannually varying NCEP/CFSR wind stress is prescribed over four spatial domains: globally, over the equatorial Pacific (EP), the northern Pacific (NP), and the southern Pacific (SP). The corresponding EP SST bias is reduced by 100%, 52%, 12%, and 23%, respectively. Thus, the EP SST bias is mainly attributed to the local wind bias, with small but not negligible contributions from the extratropical regions. Erroneous ocean circulation driven by overly strong winds causes the cold SST bias, while the surface heat flux counteracts it. Extratropical Pacific SST biases contribute to the EP cold bias via the oceanic subtropical gyres, which is further enhanced by dynamical coupling in the equatorial region. The origin of the wind biases is examined by forcing the atmospheric component of the KCM in a stand-alone mode with observed SSTs and simulated SSTs from the coupled experiments. Wind biases over the EP, NP, and SP regions originate in the atmosphere model. The cold EP SST bias substantially enhances the wind biases over all three regions, while the NP and SP SST biases support local amplification of the wind bias. This study suggests that improving surface wind stress, at and off the equator, is a key to improve mean-state equatorial Pacific SST in climate models.

Effect of an Open Central American Seaway on Ocean Circulation and the Oxygen Minimum Zone in the Tropical Pacific From Model Simulations

AbstractThe tectonic closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) during the mid‐Miocene to mid‐Pliocene (∼16–3 Ma BP) is thought of as a key interval for the onset of the present‐day tropical Pacific oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). In this study we investigate the impact of an open CAS on the ocean circulation and the OMZ in the tropical Pacific. We perform a series of sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model, where we vary the CAS sill depth from shallow to deep. We find that the eastern tropical Pacific OMZ was less developed during the period of an open CAS. This is driven mainly by an enhanced eastward subsurface current that facilitated an increased oxygen supply from the western tropical Pacific. In addition, a small decrease in net marine primary production and subsequent weaker export of particulate organic carbon induced less subsurface oxygen consumption in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.

Atlantic decadal-to-bidecadal variability in a version of the Kiel Climate Model

Atlantic decadal-to-bidecadal variability (ADV) is described from a multimillennial control integration of a version of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The KCM’s ADV is the second most energetic mode of long-term North Atlantic variability in that simulation, whereas the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the leading mode that has been described in a previous study. The KCM’s ADV can be regarded as a mixed oceanic gyre-overturning circulation mode that is forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. The extratropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the model’s ADV initially exhibit a tripolar structure in the meridional direction, which is linked to the gyre circulation. After some years, the SST-anomaly pattern turns into a monopolar pattern located in the subpolar North Atlantic. This transition is related to the overturning circulation. The AMV and the ADV co-exist and share some similarities. Both modes of variability rely on the upper-ocean heat transport into the subpolar North Atlantic. They differ in the importance of the gyre and overturning circulations. In the ADV, gyre and overturning-heat transports into the subpolar North Atlantic are equally important in contrast to the AMV where the overturning contribution dominates.

The Driving Forces Underlying Spatiotemporal Lake Extent Changes in the Inner Tibetan Plateau During the Holocene

The Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP), the central and western part of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), covers about one-fourth of the entire TP and contains more than 800 endorheic lakes larger than 1 km2. These lakes are important water reservoirs and sensitive to TP climate changes. They regulate regional water circulations, and further influence local ecosystems. Many lakes in ITP are surrounded by conspicuous paleoshorelines indicating much higher past lake levels. Previous studies found that lakes in the western ITP (west of ∼86°E) apparently expanded to higher levels than those to the east during the Holocene high lake level stage, however, there is no in-depth study on the reasons for the spatial differences of high lake levels within the ITP. In this study, we first identify Holocene lake level (or lake extent) changes over the ITP by combining published lake level variation data with our reconstruction of Dagze Co lake level variations. We then investigate spatial differences in the magnitude of lake expansions and explore the underlying forces driving these differences using the transient climate evolution of the last 21 ka (TraCE-21ka) and Kiel Climate Model (KCM) simulation results. We find that lakes in the ITP expanded to their highest levels during the early Holocene when the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) greatly intensified. After the mid-Holocene, lake levels fell as a result of the weakening of the ISM. The early Holocene northward shift of the westerly jet and a positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) resulted in the intensification of southwesterly winds on the southwest TP flank. Concurrently, westerly winds over the TP weakened, causing a differential increase in water vapor transport to the ITP with higher precipitation levels in the southwestern ITP and lower levels to the northeast. These wind-driven differential precipitation levels caused lakes in the southwestern ITP to expand to higher levels than those in the central, northern and northeastern ITP. During the early Holocene, expansion of lakes in the northwestern ITP was enhanced by an increase in glacier melt water besides the increased summer rainfall associated with the intensified ISM.

Subpolar Gyre – AMOC – Atmosphere Interactions on Multidecadal Timescales in a Version of the Kiel Climate Model

AbstractThere is a controversy about the nature of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic (NA) region, concerning the roles of ocean circulation and atmosphere-ocean coupling. Here we describe NA multidecadal variability from a version of the Kiel Climate Model, in which both subpolar gyre (SPG)-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and atmosphere-ocean coupling are essential. The oceanic barotropic and meridional overturning streamfunctions, and sea level pressure are jointly analyzed to derive the leading mode of Atlantic sector variability. This mode accounting for 23.7 % of the total combined variance is oscillatory with an irregular periodicity of 25-50 years and an e-folding time of about a decade. SPG and AMOC mutually influence each other and together provide the delayed negative feedback necessary for maintaining the oscillation. An anomalously strong SPG, for example, drives higher surface salinity and density in the NA’s sinking region. In response, oceanic deep convection and AMOC intensify, which, with a time delay of about a decade, reduces SPG strength by enhancing upper-ocean heat content. The weaker gyre leads to lower surface salinity and density in the sinking region, which reduces deep convection and eventually AMOC strength. There is a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback between the sea surface temperature and low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Greenland area, with related wind stress changes reinforcing SPG changes, thereby maintaining the (damped) multidecadal oscillation against dissipation. Stochastic surface heat-flux forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation drives the eigenmode.

Deepening of Future Aleutian Low in Ensemble Global Warming Simulations with the Kiel Climate Model

We project changes of the Aleutian Low (AL) under global warming using ensemble simulations with a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). In the global warming simulations, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration increases by 1% per year from the preindustrial level of 286.2 ppm to a quadruple value in 140 years. Results from the 40 members of an ensemble simulation show an intensification of the AL such that ensemble mean North Pacific Index (NPI) is decreased by 2.71 hPa. It is also accompanied with an expansion of the AL to north. While the effect of weakened land-ocean thermal contrast and SST warming in the eastern tropical Pacific on the AL strength are relatively weak and marginally significant, sea ice loss in the marginal seas of the North Pacific, such as the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, increases the surface air temperature and makes pressure lower over the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Islands. Especially, sea ice loss in the Okhotsk Sea drives the SLP change around the Aleutian Islands and contributes to the strengthening of the AL.

Western Pacific Ocean influences on monsoon precipitation in the southwestern Chinese Loess Plateau since the mid-Holocene

Numerous paleoclimate records on reconstructed monsoon precipitation isotopes (δDp and δ18Op) have been published to infer past hydroclimate changes in Asian monsoon region. However, there are still debates on whether or not these reconstructed δDp or δ18Op can represent changes of monsoon precipitation. In this study, we report a ~ 5000 year record of leafwax hydrogen isotope (δDwax) from a 6.67-m-long sediment core collected in Beilianchi (BLC) Lake in the southwestern Chinese Loess Plateau. Based on analyses of the instrumental precipitation isotopes, precipitation amounts, and moisture sources, we find that δDp in the southwestern Chinese Loess Plateau shows distinct negative correlation with amounts of summer (from April to September) monsoon precipitation at inter-annual scales. This is further supported by the observed negative relation between precipitation amounts and regional lake-sediments and speleothems inferred δDp (or δ18Op) values at decadal scales over the past 60 years. Therefore, our reconstructed ~ 35-year resolution monsoon precipitation, inferred from δDwax, reveals a long-term decrease since the mid-Holocene. Superimposed on this trend, there are several multi-centennial to millennial-scale fluctuations for increased monsoon precipitation at 4500–4000 years BP, 2900–2400 years BP and 1200–700 years BP and decreased precipitation at 3900–3000 years BP, 2200–1300 years BP, and 500–0 years BP. Reanalyses of instrumental data and Kiel Climate Model on regional atmosphere circulations show that moisture of this region is mainly derived from the western Pacific Ocean through the East Asian summer monsoon circulation at inter-annual to inter-decadal, and millennial timescales. We conclude that monsoon rainfall in the southwestern Chinese Loess Plateau is likely connected with changes in sea surface temperatures and migrations of the ITCZ in the western Pacific Ocean.

Monthly to seasonal prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature with statistical models constructed from observations and data from the Kiel Climate Model

We explore the predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the potential influence of climate model bias on SST predictions over the tropical Atlantic. Two statistical methods are used to examine the skill in forecasting tropical Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTAs): linear inverse modeling (LIM) and analogue forecast (AF). The statistical models are trained either with observations or with data from two control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which only differ with respect to the resolution of its atmospheric component. Observed SSTAs suggest that Tropical Atlantic climatic changes are potentially predictable at lead times of up to 6 months over large parts of the Tropical Atlantic. The SSTAs from the KCM version employing a high-resolution atmosphere model (KCM-HRES) is potentially predictable at a level comparable to that derived from the observations, whereas the SSTAs from the KCM version employing a low-resolution atmosphere model (KCM-LRES) is considerably less potentially predictable. We show that the enhanced potential predictability in the former KCM version can be very likely related to the improved representation of ENSO-like dynamics and its seasonality. We used the statistical models in true forecast mode, i.e. the prediction schemes were trained from data independent of the forecast period. Using observed SSTAs to train the LIM yields significant skill in forecasting observed SSTAs at lead times of up to 4 months across all calendar months, which is mostly restricted to the northern and equatorial western Tropical Atlantic. Similar patterns, but with lower skill, are found when the models’ SSTAs are used, in which LIM trained with the KCM-HRES generally yields higher skills than that from the KCM-LRES. Applying AF yields significant skills in predicting observed SSTAs over the same regions, but the forecast skills are considerably smaller. When the SSTAs together with either sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies or dynamic sea level (DSL) anomalies from the KCM are used to construct the statistical models, the prediction of observed equatorial Atlantic SSTAs can be improved, with significant skill enhancement at lead times of up to 4 months in limited regions. An optimal initial SSTA pattern is found, which results in the largest transient anomaly growth over the entire domain. Independent of external forces, this amplification is developed internally; meaning that the seasonal forecast might be more sensitive to initial conditions than currently thought.

East Atlantic Pattern Drives Multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability During the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractThe variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its governing processes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated in the Kiel Climate Model. Under LGM conditions, multidecadal AMOC variability is mainly forced by the surface heat flux variability linked to the East Atlantic pattern (EAP). In contrast, the multidecadal AMOC variability under preindustrial conditions is mainly driven by the surface heat flux variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Stand‐alone atmosphere model experiments show that relative to preindustrial conditions, the change in AMOC forcing under LGM conditions is tightly linked to the differences in topography.

Asynchronous Variation in the Quaternary East Asian Winter Monsoon Associated With the Tropical Pacific ENSO‐Like System

AbstractQuaternary East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) evolution has long been attributed to high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere climate change. However, it cannot explain the distinct relationships of the EAWM in the northern and southern East Asian marginal sea in paleoclimatic records. Here we present an EAWM record of the northern East China Sea over the past 300 ka and a transient climate simulation with the Kiel Climate Model through the Holocene. Both proxy record and simulation suggest anticorrelated long‐term EAWM evolution between the northern East China Sea and the South China Sea. We suggest that this spatial discrepancy of EAWM can be interpreted as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐like controlling, which generates cyclonic/anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northern/southern East Asian marginal sea. This research explains much of the controversy in nonorbital scale variability of Quaternary EAWM records in the East Asian marginal sea and supports a potent role of tropical forcing in East Asian winter climate change.

Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowing events in a climate model

There is a controversy about the origin of the recent decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowing observed at 26.5°N and concurrent sea surface temperature cooling in the central and eastern mid-latitude North Atlantic. We investigate decadal AMOC slowing events simulated in a multi-millennial preindustrial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), providing an estimate of internal AMOC variability. Preindustrial control integrations of 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 also are investigated, as well as historical simulations with them providing estimates of AMOC variability during 1856–2005. It is shown that the recent decadal AMOC decline is still within the range of the models’ internal AMOC variability and thus could be of natural origin. In this case, the decline would represent an extreme realization of internal variability provided the climate models yield realistic levels of AMOC variability. The model results suggest that internal decadal AMOC variability is large, requiring multi-decadal observational records to detect an anthropogenic AMOC signal with high confidence. When analyzing the strongest decadal AMOC slowing events in the KCM, which have amplitudes similar to or larger than the recently observed decadal AMOC decline, the following composite picture emerges: a very strong decadal AMOC decline is preceded by a decadal rise in atmospheric surface pressure over large parts of the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The change in low-level atmospheric circulation drives reduced oceanic heat loss over and diminished upper-ocean salt content in the Labrador Sea. In response, oceanic deep convection and subsequently the AMOC and northward oceanic heat transport weaken, and anomalously cold sea surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern mid-latitude North Atlantic.

Seasonal prediction of equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature using simple initialization and bias correction techniques

Due to strong mean state‐biases most coupled models are unable to simulate equatorial Atlantic variability. Here, we use the Kiel Climate Model to assess the impact of bias reduction on the seasonal prediction of equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). We compare a standard experiment (STD) with an experiment that employs surface heat flux correction to reduce the SST bias (FLX) and, in addition, apply a correction for initial errors in SST. Initial conditions for both experiments are generated in partially coupled mode, and seasonal hindcasts are initialized at the beginning of February, May, August and November for 1981–2012. Surface heat flux correction generally improves hindcast skill. Hindcasts initialized in February have the least skill, even though the model bias is not particularly strong at that time of year. In contrast, hindcasts initialized in May achieve the highest skill. We argue this is because of the emergence of a closed Bjerknes feedback loop in boreal summer in FLX that is a feature of observations but is missing in STD.

The effect of the equatorial Pacific cold SST bias on simulated ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific and California

Precipitation in California is modulated by variability in the tropical Pacific associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): more rainfall is expected during El Nino episodes, and reduced rainfall during La Nina. It has been suggested that besides the shape and location of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly this remote connection depends on the strength and location of the atmospheric convection response in the tropical Pacific. Here we show in a perturbed physics ensemble of the Kiel Climate Model and CMIP5 models that due to a cold equatorial SST bias many climate models are in a La Nina-like mean state, resulting in a too westward position of the rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation. This in turn results in a convective response along the equator during ENSO events that is too far west in comparison to observations. This effect of the equatorial cold SST bias is not restricted to the tropics, moreover it leads to a too westward SLP response in the North Pacific and too westward precipitation response that does not reach California. Further we show that climate models with a reduced equatorial cold SST bias have a more realistic representation of the spatial asymmetry of the teleconnections between El Nino and La Nina.

Error compensation of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in climate models and its influence on simulated ENSO dynamics

Common problems in state-of-the-art climate models are a cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the equatorial Pacific and the underestimation of the two most important atmospheric feedbacks operating in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): the positive, i.e. amplifying wind-SST feedback and the negative, i.e. damping heat flux-SST feedback. To a large extent, the underestimation of those feedbacks can be explained by the cold equatorial SST bias, which shifts the rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) too far to the west by up to 30°, resulting in an erroneous convective response during ENSO events. Based on simulations from the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) and the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we investigate how well ENSO dynamics are simulated in case of underestimated ENSO atmospheric feedbacks (EAF), with a special focus on ocean–atmosphere coupling over the equatorial Pacific. While models featuring realistic atmospheric feedbacks simulate ENSO dynamics close to observations, models with underestimated EAF exhibit fundamental biases in ENSO dynamics. In models with too weak feedbacks, ENSO is not predominantly wind-driven as observed; instead ENSO is driven significantly by a positive shortwave radiation feedback. Thus, although these models simulate ENSO, which in terms of simple indices is consistent with observations, it originates from very different dynamics. A too weak oceanic forcing on the SST via the positive thermocline, the Ekman and the zonal advection feedback is compensated by weaker atmospheric heat flux damping. The latter is mainly caused by a biased shortwave-SST feedback that erroneously is positive in most climate models. In the most biased models, the shortwave-SST feedback contributes to the SST anomaly growth to a similar degree as the ocean circulation. Our results suggest that a broad continuum of ENSO dynamics can exist in climate models and explain why climate models with less than a half of the observed EAF strength can still depict realistic ENSO amplitude.

Evolution of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Response to Orbital Forcing During the Holocene and Eemian From Model Simulations

AbstractCharacteristics of the seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) over last two interglacials, the Holocene and Eemian, are analyzed using transient climate simulations with the Kiel Climate Model. There is a tendency toward a strengthening of the seasonal as well as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related variability from the early to the late interglacials. The weaker EEP sea surface temperature annual cycle during the early interglacials is mainly a result of insolation‐forced cooling during its warm phase and dynamically induced warming during its cold phase. Enhanced convection over northern South America weakens northeasterlies in the EEP leading to weaker equatorial upwelling, deeper thermocline and subsequent warming in this region. We show that a negative ENSO modulation of the annual cycle operates only on short timescales and does not affect their evolutions on orbital time scales where both ENSO and annual cycle show similar tendencies to increase.

Influence of Model Bias on Simulating North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature During the Mid-Pliocene

Climate models generally underestimate the pronounced warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic during the mid‐Pliocene that is suggested by proxy data. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic cold SST bias, which is observed in many climate models, on the simulation of mid‐Pliocene surface climate in a series of simulations with the Kiel Climate Model. A surface freshwater‐flux correction is applied over the North Atlantic, which considerably improves simulation of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and SST under present‐day conditions. Using reconstructed mid‐Pliocene boundary conditions with closed Bering and Arctic Archipelago Straits, the corrected model depicts significantly reduced model‐proxy SST discrepancy in comparison to the uncorrected model. A key factor in reducing the discrepancy is the stronger and more sensitive Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and poleward heat transport. We conclude that simulations of mid‐Pliocene surface climate over the North Atlantic can considerably benefit from alleviating model biases in this region.

Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature annual cycle in the Kiel Climate Model: simulation benefits from enhancing atmospheric resolution

A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue’s onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases.

Sahel rainfall strength and onset improvements due to more realistic Atlantic cold tongue development in a climate model

The simulation of Sahel rainfall and its onset during the West African Monsoon (WAM) remains a challenge for current state-of-the-art climate models due to their persistent biases, especially in the tropical Atlantic region. Here we show that improved representation of Atlantic Cold Tongue (ACT) development is essential for a more realistic seasonal evolution of the WAM, which is due to a further inland migration of the precipitation maximum. The observed marked relationship between ACT development and Sahel rainfall onset only can be reproduced by a climate model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), when sufficiently high resolution in its atmospheric component is employed, enabling enhanced equatorial Atlantic interannual sea surface temperature variability in the ACT region relative to versions with coarser atmospheric resolution. The ACT/Sahel rainfall relationship in the model critically depends on the correct seasonal phase-locking of the interannual variability rather than on its magnitude. We compare the KCM results with those obtained from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

Glacial–interglacial changes and Holocene variations in Arabian Sea denitrification

Abstract. At present, the Arabian Sea has a permanent oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) at water depths between about 100 and 1200 m. Active denitrification in the upper part of the OMZ is recorded by enhanced δ15N values in the sediments. Sediment cores show a δ15N increase during the middle and late Holocene, which is contrary to the trend in the other two regions of water column denitrification in the eastern tropical North and South Pacific. We calculated composite sea surface temperature (SST) and δ15N ratios in time slices of 1000 years of the last 25 kyr to better understand the reasons for the establishment of the Arabian Sea OMZ and its response to changes in the Asian monsoon system. Low δ15N values of 4–7 ‰ during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and stadials (Younger Dryas and Heinrich events) suggest that denitrification was inactive or weak during Pleistocene cold phases, while warm interstadials (ISs) had elevated δ15N. Fast changes in upwelling intensities and OMZ ventilation from the Antarctic were responsible for these strong millennial-scale variations during the glacial. During the entire Holocene δ15N values > 6 ‰ indicate a relatively stable OMZ with enhanced denitrification. The OMZ develops parallel to the strengthening of the SW monsoon and monsoonal upwelling after the LGM. Despite the relatively stable climatic conditions of the Holocene, the δ15N records show regionally different trends in the Arabian Sea. In the upwelling areas in the western part of the basin, δ15N values are lower during the mid-Holocene (4.2–8.2 ka BP) compared to the late Holocene (< 4.2 ka BP) due to stronger ventilation of the OMZ during the period of the most intense southwest monsoonal upwelling. In contrast, δ15N values in the northern and eastern Arabian Sea rose during the last 8 kyr. The displacement of the core of the OMZ from the region of maximum productivity in the western Arabian Sea to its present position in the northeast was established during the middle and late Holocene. This was probably caused by (i) reduced ventilation due to a longer residence time of OMZ waters and (ii) augmented by rising oxygen consumption due to enhanced northeast-monsoon-driven biological productivity. This concurs with the results of the Kiel Climate Model, which show an increase in OMZ volume during the last 9 kyr related to the increasing age of the OMZ water mass.

North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability

The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.