Keynesian DSGE Model Research Articles

Evaluating the macroeconomic impact of environmental policies in New Zealand: A New Keynesian DSGE model to sustainability

This study enhances the environmental New Keynesian framework by integrating spatial spillover effects through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The simulation results reveal that while environmental regulations can lead to welfare losses, a carbon tax levy mitigates these losses more effectively than alternative approaches in New Zealand. What is surprising is the pro-cyclical nature of environmental policies. For spillovers, shocks to capital and labor tax rates substantially curtail emissions in adjacent regions. Further simulation substantiates that higher price dispersion necessitates a reduced growth rate of emissions. These conclusions compel New Zealand to explore diverse policy options for effectively decarbonizing the economy.

Regulatory Effects of the Combinations of Aggregate and Structural Monetary Policy Instruments: an application of New Keynesian DSGE model to China

This paper selects Chinese macroeconomic data from the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2020 and employs a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates the financial accelerator mechanism, price stickiness, and invisible government guarantees. The regulatory effects of different combinations of monetary policy instruments are compared from five perspectives: the shock effect of monetary policy, the magnitude of economic volatility of non-monetary policy shocks, the Central Bank loss function, the gap in the distribution of household income, and the heterogeneous firm external financing premium. Our findings indicate that the regulatory effects of the aggregate price-based and structural quantity-based monetary policy instrument combination are optimal, a conclusion that is further supported by the robustness test. It is therefore recommended that the Central Bank consider the potential benefits of a combined approach to aggregate and structural monetary policy instruments, with a view to enhancing credit availability for the real economy. This paper represents a significant contribution to the field, as it is the first to explicitly propose four distinct monetary policy instrument combinations, thereby overcoming the limitations of previous studies that have focused on a single instrument or a narrow range of instruments. The paper also contributes to the theoretical understanding of monetary policy instruments.

Nominal GDP growth targeting vs. Taylor rules in a model with financial frictions

Nominal GDP growth targeting has gained favor over the last few decades in monetary policy literature (e.g., Ireland 2020; Garín et al. 2016; Beckworth and Hendrickson 2020). Calibrated, small-scale New Keynesian DSGE models have supported the proposition that nominal GDP growth (NGDP growth) rate targeting will improve welfare as compared with alternative strategies such as inflation targeting and Taylor rules with standard parameter settings. This paper examines that proposition in the context of a medium-scale New Keynesian model having a financial sector with frictions. In that model, NGDP growth rate targeting does poorly as compared with the Optimal Taylor rule and a wide range of Taylor rule settings leading up to the Optimal (representative agent utility maximizing) Taylor rule. The presence of the financial sector reveals that not only is NGDP growth rate targeting the least successful among the alternative targets and rules in creating welfare in this model; NGDP growth rate targeting also creates dramatically higher volatility of the policy rate and most financial variables.

FAQ: How do I estimate the output gap?

Abstract I investigate the properties of output gaps in New Keynesian DSGE models and study the relationship between theory-based quantities and the estimates obtained with standard approaches. Theoretical gaps display low frequency variations, have similar frequency domain representation as potentials and are generally correlated with them. Potentials have important business cycle variability. Existing statistical approaches fail to recognize these features and generate distorted estimates. Gaps are best estimated with a Polynomial filter. Explanations for the outcomes are given. I propose a statistical procedure reducing estimation biases.

Uncertainty shocks and monetary policy rules in a small open economy

Abstract Post the great financial crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009, there has been a surge in the macroeconomics literature on aggregate uncertainty. Although the recent literature has recognized the adverse real effects of global uncertainty shocks in emerging market economies (EMEs), the role of monetary policy in offsetting these adverse effects and their link with the exchange rates is not explored in the literature. We find that the currently followed interest rate rules (IRRs) under a flexible inflation-targeting regime are ineffective in stabilizing the domestic economy during periods of high global uncertainty in the EMEs. Using a small open economy new Keynesian DSGE model with Epstein–Zin preferences and second-moment demand shocks, we compare and propose alternate monetary policy rules that significantly reduce welfare losses. We find that the best monetary policy rule in terms of welfare depends on the nature of shock that is, first-moment or second-moment shock.

A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency

We develop a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE model to study the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC): government-backed digital money available to retail consumers. At the heart of our model are monopolistic banks with market power in deposit and loan markets. When a CBDC is introduced, households benefit from an expansion of liquidity services and higher deposit rates as bank deposit market power is curtailed. However, deposits also flow out of the banking system and bank lending contracts. We assess this welfare trade-off for a wide range of economies that differ in their level of interest rates. We find substantial welfare gains from introducing a CBDC with an optimal interest rate that can be approximated by a simple rule of thumb: the maximum between 0% and the policy rate minus 1%.

Построение и калибровка DSGE модели для российской экономики с использованием импульсных откликов векторной авторегрессии

The paper proposes a two‐sector macroeconomic model of the Russian economy based on the standard assumptions of New Keynesian DSGE models used to model household consumption, price and wage rigidities, and endogenous capital utilization. We consider two options for describing the investment process: the traditional approach with the investment adjustment costs and the approach using the investment accelerator model. The model parameters are calibrated based on minimizing the distance between the theoretical and “empirical” impulse response functions to the terms of trade shock derived from estimating simple ARX models with terms of trade as an exogenous variable. The constructed model quite accurately reproduces the influence of the terms of trade on the Russian economy for both investment modeling options. Based on the calibrated model, the authors examined the impact of a monetary policy shock on macroeconomic indicators and constructed a historical decomposition of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators by an extended set of structural shocks to economic variables.

Are two financial frictions necessary to match U.S. business and financial cycles?

This study performs a Bayesian assessment of a New Keynesian DSGE model that links the costly state-verification financial friction with financial constraints from the costly-enforcement problem. We also analyze three theoretical counterparts that contain either one financial rigidity or any of them. Therefore, we compare four DSGE models with each other and with a set of BVARs for U.S. data. We show that the DSGE model with costly state-verification friction outperforms the other DSGE models and may compete with the BVARs in matching the data. Therefore, two financial rigidities seem unnecessary to correctly match the U.S. business and financial cycles.

The fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency

In this paper, we show that the proportion of private debt denominated in foreign currency can be a determinant of the size of the domestic fiscal multiplier. The demonstration relies on a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. In line with recent evidence, the model can reproduce the depreciation of the domestic currency following an increase in public spending. We show that, in this case, the increase in debt burden denominated in foreign currency deteriorates the domestic firms’ balance sheets. This raises their external finance premium and crowds out private investment, ultimately offsetting the stimulative effect of the government spending shock.

Current Account Adjustment of the Euro Area in the 2010s: Causes and Policies

In the early 2000s, several countries in the euro area (EA), mostly in the South, experienced an increase in current account deficits, while Northern countries saw an increase in current account surpluses. During the euro crisis, the South transitioned from a current account deficit to a surplus, while the North's surplus widened, thereby increasing the EA's overall current account surplus. To analyze the causes of the current account adjustment in the EA during the 2010s and to identify economic policies that reduce external imbalances, we employ a New Keynesian DSGE model with three regions (the North of the EA, the South of the EA, and the rest of the world). Our analysis reveals that the EA's expansionary monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and lackluster productivity performance explain a significant portion of the current account adjustment. Furthermore, we find that the fiscal revaluation and expansion of the North would have limited effects on external imbalances.

The risk premium in New Keynesian DSGE models: The cost of inflation channel

We study the role of the cost of inflation channel in determining the risk premium in a (nonlinear) New Keynesian DSGE model. Relying on a Calvo (or Rotemberg) price setting, we show that while the cost of inflation channel generates the desired term premium moments, it suffers from nontrivial, counterintuitive approximation errors in the price dispersion function. In addition to documenting the issues, we propose ways to alleviate them, including a quasikinked demand function as a risk-generating mechanism.

Asset purchases, limited asset markets participation and inequality

This paper analyses the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on households' income and consumption inequality in the Euro Area. Using a SVAR with high frequency identification, I show that an identified QE shock is redistributive and expansionary. To rationalize the empirical findings, I build a New Keynesian DSGE model with household heterogeneity and financial frictions which explains the empirical results and provides insights on the inequality channel. Bond purchases increase aggregate demand and benefit financially restricted households more than investors, due to the dominance of QE's indirect effects and the foregoing term spread between bonds and reserves. Thus, income and consumption inequality decline in line with the evidence.

Does the Central Bank of Peru respond to exchange rate movements? A Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian DSGE model with FX interventions

This paper assesses the role played by the exchange rate and FX intervention in setting monetary policy interest rates in Peru. We estimate a Taylor rule that includes inflation, output gap and the exchange rate using a New Keynesian DSGE model that follows closely Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2017). The model is extended to include an explicit sterilized FX intervention rule as in Faltermeier, Lama, and Medina (2017). The main empirical results show that the model that features a Taylor rule which does not respond to changes in the nominal exchange rate and considers an active use of FX interventions by the Central Bank of Peru clearly outperforms other model specifications in terms of the marginal log density. We also find that the coefficient associated with the response of the Taylor rule to inflation is close to 2 and the one associated with the output gap is greater than 1. Additionally, we find that FX interventions have become more responsive to exchange rate fluctuations during the IT period. Finally, the estimated IRFs show that FX interventions has contributed to reducing the volatility of GDP in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks in Peru.

A Basic Two-Sector New Keynesian DSGE Model of the Indian Economy

Indian economy is going through underlying changes in the post-pandemic recovery process. Effects of policies, monetary or fiscal, on macroeconomy need a thorough analysis in these recessionary times. In this context, this study develops a closed-economy DSGE model to see the impact of monetary policy on the Indian economy. The model includes price rigidities, and parameters are calibrated using the data on Indian economy. The model includes two sectors – intermediate goods and final goods producers, an inflation-targeting regime following the Taylor rule. Model is simulated for a positive productivity shock and an expansionary monetary policy shock. Results show that a positive productivity shock improves overall economic activity, and an expansionary monetary policy shock increases output for the short term only.

Some Unconventional Properties of New Keynesian DSGE Models

We examine the theoretical and numerical properties of a prototypical New Keynesian DSGE model featuring endogenous capital accumulation and labour supply. We find that this completely conventional model yields implausible impact results following unanticipated and temporary shocks when the monetary closure rule is changed from a policy rule setting nominal interest rates (a Taylor Rule) to a fixed money supply rule. We compare and contrast a variety of New Keynesian models, featuring aggregate price stickiness, with their New Classical counterparts featuring perfectly flexible prices. In line with the literature we find that under a Taylor Rule the impulse-response functions following a technology shock are very similar. In contrast, with a fixed money supply the impact effects for the New Keynesian model are implausible. We demonstrate the robustness of this Implausible Result to alternative parameter values and show that it is ultimately caused by the inflexibility of the capital stock relative to that of the real money supply. We suggest several model extensions which will eliminate the Implausible Result from New Keynesian sticky-price models.

Learning, Central Bank Conservatism, and Stock Price Dynamics

Abstract This paper studies how adaptive learning affects the interactions between monetary policy, stock prices and the optimal degree of Rogoff conservatism in a New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian agents whose heterogeneous portfolios generate a financial wealth channel of monetary transmission. A positive intergenerational portfolio turnover in the stock market could improve the dual-mandate central bank’s intertemporal trade-off allowed by learning and implies a positive weight on financial stability in the social welfare criterion. For plausible learning gains and turnover rates, a rise in the turnover rate could lead the central bank to reduce the aggressiveness in its policy needed to manage private beliefs if the learning gain is high enough. Both the distortion due to learning and the central bank’s lack of concern for financial stability could lead the government to appoint a liberal central banker, i.e. less conservative than society. A rise in the turnover rate implies a higher (lower) degree of liberalism for low (high) learning gains.

Macroprudential regulation and leakage to the shadow banking sector

We study the effects of macroprudential commercial bank regulation on the shadow banking sector via an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model that differentiates between monopolistically competitive commercial banks and shadow banks that rely on funding in a perfectly competitive market for investments. We find that tighter capital requirements on commercial banks increase shadow bank lending, which may have adverse financial stability effects. Coordinating macroprudential tightening with monetary easing can limit this leakage mechanism, while overall maintaining a reduction in aggregate lending. In a counterfactual analysis we compare how macroprudential policy implemented before the 2008 financial crisis would have affected business and lending cycles.

Accounting for inflation dynamic in a fully optimizing macroeconomic framework: evidence from the US states

ABSTRACT This article proposes a New Keynesian DSGE model that can capture the hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock that does not depend upon backward-looking elements for the price and wage-setting, such as the indexation of wages or prices. The two additional elements required to achieve a hump-shaped response are roundabout production structure (input–output structure for production) and working capital. Depending on the model’s parameterization, this channel can provide a pronounced response of inflation. In addition, our article provides some reduced-form evidence about the hump-shaped response of inflation using a VAR with Cholesky ordering.

Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models

We introduce Behavioral Learning Equilibria (BLE) into a multivariate linear framework and apply it to New Keynesian DSGE models. In a BLE, boundedly rational agents use simple, but optimal AR(1) forecasting rules whose parameters are consistent with the observed sample mean and autocorrelation of past data. We study the BLE concept in a standard 3‐equation New Keynesian model and develop an estimation methodology for the canonical Smets and Wouters (2007) model. A horse race between Rational Expectations (REE), BLE, and constant gain learning models shows that the BLE model outperforms the REE benchmark and is competitive with constant gain learning models in terms of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample fitness. Sample‐autocorrelation learning of optimal AR(1) beliefs provides the best fit when short‐term survey data on inflation expectations are taken into account in the estimation. As a policy application, we show that optimal Taylor rules under AR(1) expectations inherit history dependence and require a lower degrees of interest rate smoothing than REE.

Cross border flows, financial intermediation and interactions of policy rules in a small open economy

We investigate the interaction between monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential regulations (MaPs) in a small open emerging economy, using a New Keynesian DSGE model with financial intermediation. We show that an augmented Taylor rule (ATR), is inadequate to absorb negative shocks due to the conflict between inflation and exchange rate stabilization. However, two kinds of MaP regulations along with a simple monetary policy rule improve the business cycle dynamics and welfare under domestic and external shocks relative to ATR. The two macroprudential regulations analysed are relevant respectively for a ‘sudden stop’ type external shock or a banking crisis type domestic shock, which are frequent in such economies, and are found to improve macroeconomic stability.