Key Control Measures Research Articles

A Comprehensive Study on Winter PM2.5 Variation in the Yangtze River Delta: Unveiling Causes and Pollution Transport Pathways

To thoroughly investigate the impact of meteorological conditions and emission changes on winter PM2.5 variation in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2015 to 2019, we leveraged advanced modeling techniques, namely, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS). The results revealed that a notable trend of high-PM2.5-concentration regions shifted from coastal areas towards to the inland regions. While emission reduction can effectively reduce the concentration of PM2.5, meteorological changes exert a significant impact on PM2.5 concentration. Unfavorable meteorological changes in 2018 and 2019 emerged as crucial factors driving PM2.5 pollution in the region (up 0~50 µg·m−3). Our findings also shed light on the potential sources and transport pathways of PM2.5 pollution in key cities within the YRD, indicating that the coastal channel of Hebei–Shandong–Jiangsu and the inland channel bordering Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui serve as major contributors. Light and moderate pollution was predominantly influenced by the medium-distance coastal channel (48~70%). Remarkably, short-distance inland (19~54%) and coastal transportation (33~53%) channels emerged as the primary causes of severe PM2.5 pollution in the YRD. To effectively combat this issue, it is imperative to bolster key control and prevention measures in these regions.

Increasing the capacity of family planning cadres using ABPK in Puskesmas Lepasan, Bakumpai District

Indonesia is projected to experience a significant population increase by 2035. The Family Planning (KB) Program is a key control measure. KB cadre involvement is crucial for providing information and motivation to potential acceptors. However, enhancing cadre counseling capacity, particularly using Counseling Demonstration Tools (ABPK), remains essential. This community service aimed to improve KB cadre knowledge and skills in providing contraceptive counseling using ABPK. Methods included counseling, mentoring, and distributing ABPK pocketbooks to cadres. Evaluations measured pre- and post-activity cadre knowledge increases. Results showed a significant rise in cadre knowledge about contraception and ABPK use, with the percentage of cadres demonstrating good knowledge increasing from 33.3% to 87%. This improvement is expected to impact contraceptive use within the Lepasan Health Center's area.

Review of current best practices for human milk banking.

Mother's/parent milk is the optimal way to feed infants and when unavailable, supplemental donor human milk is preferred. A safe supply of donor human milk should be available for all low birthweight infants for whom it has been shown to reduce morbidity. Human milk banking has been in existence for more than a century, although largely shut down during the 1980s, primarily due to fears of human immunodeficiency virus transmission. With renewed security in milk banking, has come an exponential growth in human donor milk use. Guidelines for milk banking have been published in many countries including Australia, France, India, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the nonprofit organization PATH. The European Milk Bank Association and the Human Milk Banking Association of North America have also published recommendations for milk banks throughout Europe and North America, respectively. Although there is variability among these guidelines, there is general consensus on quality control measures required to provide a supply of safe donor milk. These measures include effective donor screening, safe collection, transport and storage of milk, standardized pasteurizationand bacteriological testing. Operational considerations are also critical, such as appropriate training for staff, equipment maintenance and cleaning, protocol and record keepingand inspection and accreditation. Clearly delineating these key quality control measures provides an excellent foundation for establishing international guidelines. Acceptable modifications must be established for low- and middle-income countries that do not have sufficient resources; overly burdensome guidelines may make establishing a milk bank unnecessarily prohibitive. This review presents a summary of current best practices for human milk banking.

SQEAIR: an Improved Infectious Disease Dynamics Model

The Covid-19 pandemic poses a significant threat to human health and life. Timely and accurate prediction of the epidemic’s trajectory is crucial for devising effective prevention and control strategies. Traditional infectious disease models may not capture the complexity of modern epidemics, especially when governments implement diverse policies. Drawing from China’s epidemic prevention strategies and Covid-19 transmission characteristics, this study introduces two distinct categories quarantined cases and asymptomatic cases to enhance the traditional SEIR model in depicting disease dynamics. To address the intricate nature of prevention and control efforts, the quarantined cases are further segmented into three subgroups: exposed quarantined, asymptomatic quarantined, and infected quarantined cases. Consequently, a novel SQEAIR model is proposed to model the dynamics of Covid-19. Evaluation metrics such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Absolute Percentage Error (MAE) are employed to assess the efficacy and accuracy of both the newly proposed and traditional models. By fitting the models to the number of infected cases in Shanghai (March to May 2022) and Guangzhou (November 2022), it was observed that the SQEAIR model exhibited a lower AIC value compared to the SEIR model, indicating superior fitting accuracy for Covid-19 infections. Moreover, the high accuracy of the SQEAIR model enabled precise predictions of confirmed cases in Guangzhou. Leveraging the SQEAIR model, various parameters were tested to simulate the impact of different influencing factors, enabling the evaluation of defense strategies. These findings underscore the effectiveness of key epidemic control measures, such as quarantining exposed cases, in enhancing public health and promoting awareness of personal protection.

Outbreak of invasive Group A streptococcus disease in a nursing home in Ireland in February 2023 caused by emm type 18.

An out-of-season increase in cases of invasive Group A streptococcus (iGAS) was observed in Ireland between October 2022 and August 2023. We describe the management of an iGAS outbreak involving three nursing home residents in Ireland in early 2023. A regional Department of Public Health was notified of an iGAS case in a nursing home resident in January 2023. When two further cases among residents were notified 7 days later, an outbreak was declared. Surveillance for GAS/iGAS infection in residents and staff was undertaken. The site was visited to provide infection prevention and control (IPC) support. Isolates were emm typed. A total of 38 residents and 29 staff in contact with resident cases were provided with antibiotic chemoprophylaxis. Seven additional staff with no direct resident contact also received chemoprophylaxis after finding one probable localised GAS infection among them. No more iGAS cases subsequently occurred.Site visit recommendations included advice on terminal cleaning and cleaning of shared equipment, as well as strengthening staff education on hand hygiene and masking. All isolates were of emm subtype 18.12, a subtype not previously detected in Ireland. Key outbreak control measures were rapid delivery of IPC support and chemoprophylaxis. Emm18 is infrequently associated with GAS infections.

Insecticide susceptibility status of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes and the effect of pre-exposure to a piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergist on resistance to deltamethrin in northern Namibia.

Pyrethroid-based indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been employed as key vector control measures against malaria in Namibia. However, pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes may compromise the efficacy of these interventions. To address this challenge, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the use of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) LLINs in areas where pyrethroid resistance is confirmed to be mediated by mixed function oxidase (MFO). This study assessed the susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes to WHO tube bioassays with 4% DDT and 0.05% deltamethrin insecticides. Additionally, the study explored the effect of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergist by sequentially exposing mosquitoes to deltamethrin (0.05%) alone, PBO (4%) + deltamethrin (0.05%), and PBO alone. The Anopheles mosquitoes were further identified morphologically and molecularly. The findings revealed that An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) (62%) was more prevalent than Anopheles arabiensis (38%). The WHO tube bioassays confirmed resistance to deltamethrin 0.05% in the Oshikoto, Kunene, and Kavango West regions, with mortality rates of 79, 86, and 67%, respectively. In contrast, An. arabiensis displayed resistance to deltamethrin 0.05% in Oshikoto (82% mortality) and reduced susceptibility in Kavango West (96% mortality). Notably, there was reduced susceptibility to DDT 4% in both An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis from the Kavango West region. Subsequently, a subsample from PBO synergist assays in 2020 demonstrated a high proportion of An. arabiensis in Oshana (84.4%) and Oshikoto (73.6%), and 0.42% of Anopheles quadriannulatus in Oshana. Non-amplifiers were also present (15.2% in Oshana; 26.4% in Oshikoto). Deltamethrin resistance with less than 95% mortality, was consistently observed in An. gambiae s.l. populations across all sites in both 2020 and 2021. Following pre-exposure to the PBO synergist, susceptibility to deltamethrin was fully restored with 100.0% mortality at all sites in 2020 and 2021. Pyrethroid resistance has been identified in An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis in the Kavango West, Kunene, and Oshikoto regions, indicating potential challenges for pyrethroid-based IRS and LLINs. Consequently, the data highlights the promise of pyrethroid-PBO LLINs in addressing resistance issues in the region.

Reconciling the efficacy and effectiveness of masking on epidemic outcomes.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, mask wearing in public settings has been a key control measure. However, the reported effectiveness of masking has been much lower than laboratory measures of efficacy, leading to doubts on the utility of masking. Here, we develop an agent-based model that comprehensively accounts for individual masking behaviours and infectious disease dynamics, and test the impact of masking on epidemic outcomes. Using realistic inputs of mask efficacy and contact data at the individual level, the model reproduces the lower effectiveness as reported in randomized controlled trials. Model results demonstrate that transmission within households, where masks are rarely used, can substantially lower effectiveness, and reveal the interaction of nonlinear epidemic dynamics, control measures and potential measurement biases. Overall, model results show that, at the individual level, consistent masking can reduce the risk of first infection and, over time, reduce the frequency of repeated infection. At the population level, masking can provide direct protection to mask wearers, as well as indirect protection to non-wearers, collectively reducing epidemic intensity. These findings suggest it is prudent for individuals to use masks during an epidemic, and for policymakers to recognize the less-than-ideal effectiveness of masking when devising public health interventions.

Quantitative microbial spoilage risk assessment of Aspergillus niger in white bread reveal that retail storage temperature and mold contamination during factory cooling are the main factors to influence spoilage

The present study developed a model for effectively assessing the risk of spoilage caused by Aspergillus niger to identify key control measures employed in bakery supply chains. A white bread supply chain comprising a processing plant and two retail stores in Taiwan was selected in this study. Time–temperature profiles were collected at each processing step in summer and winter. Visual mycelium diameter predictions were validated using a time-lapse camera. Six what-if scenarios were proposed. The mean risk of A. niger contamination per package sold by retailer A was 0.052 in summer and 0.036 in winter, and that for retailer B was 0.037 in summer and 0.022 in winter. Sensitivity analysis revealed that retail storage time, retail temperature, and mold prevalence during factory cooling were the main influencing factors. The what-if scenarios revealed that reducing the retail environmental temperature by 1 °C in summer (from 23.97 °C to 22.97 °C) and winter (from 23.28 °C to 22.28 °C) resulted in a reduction in spoilage risk of 47.0% and 34.7%, respectively. These results indicate that food companies should establish a quantitative microbial risk assessment model that uses real data to evaluate microbial spoilage in food products that can support decision-making processes.

Genome-wide epitope mapping across multiple host species reveals significant diversity in antibody responses to Coxiella burnetii vaccination and infection.

Coxiella burnetii is an important zoonotic bacterial pathogen of global importance, causing the disease Q fever in a wide range of animal hosts. Ruminant livestock, in particular sheep and goats, are considered the main reservoir of human infection. Vaccination is a key control measure, and two commercial vaccines based on formalin-inactivated C. burnetii bacterins are currently available for use in livestock and humans. However, their deployment is limited due to significant reactogenicity in individuals previously sensitized to C. burnetii antigens. Furthermore, these vaccines interfere with available serodiagnostic tests which are also based on C. burnetii bacterin antigens. Defined subunit antigen vaccines offer significant advantages, as they can be engineered to reduce reactogenicity and co-designed with serodiagnostic tests to allow discrimination between vaccinated and infected individuals. This study aimed to investigate the diversity of antibody responses to C. burnetii vaccination and/or infection in cattle, goats, humans, and sheep through genome-wide linear epitope mapping to identify candidate vaccine and diagnostic antigens within the predicted bacterial proteome. Using high-density peptide microarrays, we analyzed the seroreactivity in 156 serum samples from vaccinated and infected individuals to peptides derived from 2,092 open-reading frames in the C. burnetii genome. We found significant diversity in the antibody responses within and between species and across different types of C. burnetii exposure. Through the implementation of three different vaccine candidate selection methods, we identified 493 candidate protein antigens for protein subunit vaccine design or serodiagnostic evaluation, of which 65 have been previously described. This is the first study to investigate multi-species seroreactivity against the entire C. burnetii proteome presented as overlapping linear peptides and provides the basis for the selection of antigen targets for next-generation Q fever vaccines and diagnostic tests.

Analysis of a non-integer order mathematical model for double strains of dengue and COVID-19 co-circulation using an efficient finite-difference method

An efficient finite difference approach is adopted to analyze the solution of a novel fractional-order mathematical model to control the co-circulation of double strains of dengue and COVID-19. The model is primarily built on a non-integer Caputo fractional derivative. The famous fixed-point theorem developed by Banach is employed to ensure that the solution of the formulated model exists and is ultimately unique. The model is examined for stability around the infection-free equilibrium point analysis, and it was observed that it is stable (asymptotically) when the maximum reproduction number is strictly below unity. Furthermore, global stability analysis of the disease-present equilibrium is conducted via the direct Lyapunov method. The non-standard finite difference (NSFD) approach is adopted to solve the formulated model. Furthermore, numerical experiments on the model reveal that the trajectories of the infected compartments converge to the disease-present equilibrium when the basic reproduction number ({mathbb {R}}_0) is greater than one and disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than one respectively. This convergence is independent of the fractional orders and assumed initial conditions. The paper equally emphasized the outcome of altering the fractional orders, infection and recovery rates on the disease patterns. Similarly, we also remarked the importance of some key control measures to curtail the co-spread of double strains of dengue and COVID-19.

Safety and environmental impact control of cross passage construction in soft soil strata using tunnel boring machine method

The construction of cross passages using the tunnel boring machine (TBM) method represents an emerging construction technique with numerous advantages. However, owing to the scarcity of application instances, the safety control methodologies and the regulatory patterns concerning environmental impacts remain inconclusive. In this study, a cross passage excavated using the TBM method—the first of its kind in the Tianjin area—was investigated. We identified the key risk control measures for the construction and analysed the TBM operating parameters, monitored ground and building settlements, and monitored mainline tunnel deformations and mechanical responses, revealing the ground and tunnel structure deformation patterns. The following conclusions are drawn. (1) The ground surrounding the cross-passage break-out opening was stabilised by performing secondary grouting and small-range freezing, and the break-in opening was excavated using a completely enclosed steel sleeve. These measures prevented water and sand inflows during the excavation of the break-out and break-in openings in the silt and silty sand strata. (2) The torsional moment of the cutter disc was large during the break-out phase. Break-out mainline tunnel displacement monitoring data indicated that the thrust had a significant effect on the mainline tunnel during the break-out phase. (3) The TBM tunnelling caused ground loss. The ground settlement exhibited a U-shaped distribution along the cross-passage axis, with the maximum settlement being 10 mm. (4) During the break-out phase, the deformation of the break-out mainline tunnel exhibited a duck-egg-shaped distribution. The clearance convergence of the break-out mainline tunnel was within ± 4, and the clearance convergence of the break-in mainline tunnel was controlled within ± 1 mm.

Effects of smoke-free government policy in Qingdao, China: Evidence from the path analysis.

Smoke-free government(SFG), as a key tobacco control measure, has been added in Healthy China 2030 blueprint and Qingdao started the establishment of the demonstrative SFG in 2020.This study examined the effects of SFG policy on smoking and smoke-free(SF) environment after establishing the demonstrative SFG. This cross-sectional survey selected participants by simple random sampling from party and government agencies in Qingdao (N = 3625) and the participants filled in questionnaires online from November 31 to December 15, 2020. We utilized AMOS to set up models to analyze the direct and indirect effects of SFG policy. The findings showed that knowledge of SFG policy was positively associated with SF environment(β = 0.29, P<0.001) and negatively associated with smoking(β = -0.14,P<0.001). Knowledge of SFG policy had indirect effects on SF environment through four channels: independent mediation of discouraging smoking and attitude towards SFG policy, as well as chain mediation of these two factors, and perception of tobacco hazards and discouraging smoking, with indirect effects accounting for 33.5% of the total effect. Knowledge of SFG policy had indirect effects on smoking reduction via SF environment and two chain mediation: SF environment and attitude towards SFG policy, perception of tobacco hazards and intention to quit smoking, with indirect effects accounting for 50.2% of the total effect. The results provided the evidence that SFG policy not only had positive effects on creating SF environment but also on reducing smoking. The efficient policy infiltration to individuals played a vital role in the establishment of SFG. Attitude towards SFG policy, discouraging smoking and SF environment were the potential mediators for SFG policy. Findings in this study added more evidence related to effect mechanism of SFG policy and had a positive influence on promoting the implementation SFG policies for China and other countries.

First Report of the Physiological Race (XXIV) of Hemileia vastatrix (Coffee Leaf Rust) in Hawaii.

Hawaii's coffee industry, produced commercially on six islands by over 1,470 growers on ~10,000 acres, is conservatively valued at $100M per year (USDA NASS 2023). Until late October 2020, Hawaii was the only major coffee producing region of the world that was free of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR). Growers are currently facing their most formidable production challenge with the arrival of Hemileia vastatrix Berk. & Broome, the most economically devastating pathogen of coffee worldwide. Since its introduction (Keith et al. 2022), CLR has rapidly spread throughout the state and can be found on coffee farms and feral coffee throughout the six islands. Implementation of CLR control measures will be difficult in Hawaii, given the extreme environmental heterogeneity, differences in management practices, high production costs, and labor shortages. Compounding these challenges is that all coffee genotypes grown on a large scale in the state are susceptible to CLR. More than 55 different rust races from coffee growing countries worldwide have been identified (Silva et al. 2022). Since key control measures include developing and establishing resistant coffee cultivars, determining the rust race(s) present in Hawaii was imperative. In June 2021, nine spore samples from symptomatic cultivated and feral plants ('Typica') growing on three islands (Hawaii Island: 3, Maui: 5, Molokai: 1) were collected in gelatin capsules using a G-R Electric Manufacturing portable vacuum pump with a mini cyclone spore adapter. The samples were sent to the Coffee Rust Research Center (CIFC) in Portugal. At CIFC, the urediniospores were bulked on susceptible genotype 849/1 Matari and inoculated on a set of coffee differentials following a standard race-typing procedure (Várzea and Marques 2005). The genotype of virulence of rust samples was inferred according to Flor's gene-for-gene theory (Silva et al. 2022). The genes of virulence v2, v4, and v5 (Race XXIV) were identified in all rust samples from all islands in Hawaii, supporting the theory of a single introduction to the state, which subsequently spread (Ramírez-Camejo et al. 2022). Race XXIV was previously characterized at CIFC and is commonly found in the majority of coffee-growing countries in South and Central America, Africa and Asia (CIFC's data base). According to Figueiredo & Arruda (1974), race XXIV is considered highly aggressive with a high spore germination rate, medium germ tube length, and short incubation period required for infection. Race XXIV is pathogenic to all coffee Arabica genotypes with the resistance genes SH5 or SH2,5 like varieties Blue Mountain, Bourbon, Catuaí, Caturra, Kent's, Kona, K7, Mundo Novo, SL 28, SL 39, as well as Accession "Agaro" with resistance genes SH4,5 (CIFC's records). On the other hand, this race is not virulent to some other Arabica genotypes, such as Geisha (SH1,5), S.288 (SH3,5), and Dilla & Alghe (SH1). Race XXIV is unable to infect derivatives of interspecific tetraploid hybrids like the groups Catimor and Sarchimor (Bettencourt and Rodrigues 1988). This is the first report of race XXIV on Coffea arabica in Hawaii. This finding is essential to evaluate the potential resistance of coffee germplasm existing in Hawaii or to be introduced in this region to develop new varieties. Since the emergence of new H. vastatrix races occur preferentially at germplasm collections (Li et al. 2021), proper management is imperative where multiple genotypes/varieties are planted.

Exploring the psychological impact of contact tracing work on staff during the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundContact tracing is a key control measure in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While quantitative research has been conducted on the psychological impact of the pandemic on other frontline healthcare workers, none has explored the impact on contact tracing staff.MethodsA longitudinal study was conducted using two repeated measures with contact tracing staff employed in Ireland during the COVID-19 pandemic using two-tailed independent samples t tests and exploratory linear mixed models.ResultsThe study sample included 137 contact tracers in March 2021 (T1) and 218 in September 2021 (T3). There was an increase from T1 to T3 in burnout related exhaustion (p < 0·001), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom scores (p < 0·001), mental distress (p < 0·01), perceived stress (p < 0·001) and tension and pressure (p < 0·001). In those aged 18–30, there was an increase in exhaustion related burnout (p < 0·01), PTSD symptoms (p < 0·05), and tension and pressure scores (p < 0·05). Additionally, participants with a background in healthcare showed an increase in PTSD symptom scores by T3 (p < 0·001), reaching mean scores equivalent to those of participants who did not have a background in healthcare.ConclusionsContact tracing staff working during the COVID-19 pandemic experienced an increase in adverse psychological outcomes. These findings highlight a need for further research on psychological supports required by contact tracing staff with differing demographic profiles.

SG-APSIC1120: Hand hygiene knowledge: Its effect on hand hygiene adherence rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in the primary care setting

Objectives: Good hand hygiene knowledge among healthcare workers (HCWs) is important in the fight against COVID-19. The coronavirus disease is primarily spread through droplet and contact routes, so hand hygiene and PPE are key infection control measures to protect patients and HCWs. We sought to determine whether hand hygiene knowledge scores had an impact on the hand hygiene adherence rate during a pandemic. Methods: Hand hygiene audit observations that were conducted covertly on a monthly basis and are presented as percentages of adherent reactions to moments to wash or sanitize hands. These data were examined in relation to HCW knowledge scores on hand hygiene. The knowledge scores on hand hygiene were analyzed based on 15 questions derived from WHO tools. Scores were determined using a quiz administered in a hand hygiene promotion event. Results: In total, 195 HCWs participated and scores on hand hygiene knowledge were ranked into 3 categories: 2% scored ≥90% (high), 60% scored 70%–89% (medium), and 38% scored ≤70% (low). Knowledge scores at the medium level and above were considered satisfactory. Even though 38% of the participants scored ≤70%, there was no direct impact on monthly hand hygiene audit observation rates in the 6 healthcare clinics. Hand hygiene observation rates ranged from 90% to 97%, with an overall mean of 92% for 2021. Conclusions: Contrary to studies that have shown the significant impact of knowledge on the hand hygiene adherence rate, our data suggest that a high hand-hygiene adherence rate is achievable and sustainable among HCWs. Adherence could be driven by attention to the importance of hand hygiene associated with the pandemic and potential exposure to COVID-19. High hand-hygiene compliance attains a place of importance in the minds of HCWs during a pandemic crisis.

Guiding organisational decision-making about COVID-19 asymptomatic testing in workplaces: mixed-method study to inform an ethical framework

BackgroundWorkplace programmes to test staff for asymptomatic COVID-19 infection have become common, but raise a number of ethical challenges. In this article, we report the findings of a consultation that informed the development of an ethical framework for organisational decision-making about such programmes.MethodsWe conducted a mixed-method consultation – a survey and semi-structured interviews during November–December 2020 in a UK case study organisation that had introduced asymptomatic testing for all staff working on-site in its buildings. Analysis of closed-ended survey data was conducted descriptively. An analysis approach based on the Framework Method was used for the open-ended survey responses and interview data. The analyses were then integrated to facilitate systematic analysis across themes. Inferences were based on the integrated findings and combined with other inputs (literature review, ethical analysis, legal and public health guidance, expert discussions) to develop an ethical framework.ResultsThe consultation involved 61 staff members from the case study organisation (50 survey respondents and 11 interview participants). There was strong support for the asymptomatic testing programme: 90% of the survey respondents viewed it as helpful or very helpful. Open-ended survey responses and interviews gave insight into participants’ concerns, including those relating to goal drift, risk of false negatives, and potential negative impacts for household members and people whose roles lacked contractual and financial stability. Integration of the consultation findings and the other inputs identified the importance of a whole-system approach with appropriate support for the key control measure of isolation following positive tests. The need to build trust in the testing programme, for example through effective communication from leaders, was also emphasised.ConclusionsThe consultation, together with other inputs, informed an ethical framework intended to support employers. The framework may support organisational decision-making in areas ranging from design and operation of the programme through to choices about participation. The framework is likely to benefit from further consultation and refinement in new settings.

Tackling Cholera Outbreak Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria: Challenges and Recommendations.

Background: Since the first confirmed case of the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Nigeria, the pandemic has become a major public health challenge, affecting different sectors of the country. While Nigeria is battling to control the spread of COVID-19, the eruption of new cholera cases has put additional pressure on the strained healthcare system. Evidence: We showed how the overwhelming focus on COVID-19 has jeopardized key cholera containment measures such as disease surveillance, risk communication, and case management. Policy Options and Recommendations: We recommend provision and universal access to safe water and sanitation as key cholera preventive and control measures. However, these are resources that developing countries including Nigeria find rather challenging to provide. We also proposed the implementation of well-coordinated multi-sectoral interventions that involve strengthening disease surveillance including access to safe drinking water, vaccines, and treatment, especially in vulnerable communities. Conclusion: This policy brief provides evidence for policymakers, which if acted upon, will foster sustainable solutions to the lingering cholera outbreaks in Nigeria.

Assessing the export trade risk of bluetongue virus serotypes 4 and 8 in France.

Bluetongue (BT) causes an economic loss of $3 billion every year in the world. After two serious occurrences of BT (bluetongue virus [BTV] occurrence in 2006 and 2015), France has been controlling for decades, but it has not been eradicated. As the largest live cattle export market in the world, France is also one of the major exporters of breeding animals and genetic materials in the world. The biosafety of its exported cattle and products has always been a concern. The scenario tree quantitative model was used to analyze the risk of BTV release from French exported live cattle and bovine semen. The results showed that with the increase in vaccination coverage rates, the risk decreased. If the vaccine coverage is 0%, the areas with the highest average risk probability of BTV-4 and BTV-8 release from exported live cattle were Haute-Savoie and Puy-de-Dôme, and the risk was 2.96 × 10-4 and 4.25 × 10-4 , respectively. When the vaccine coverage was 90%, the risk probability of BTV-4 and BTV-8 release from exported live cattle was 2.96 × 10-5 and 4.24 × 10-5 , respectively. The average probability of BTV-8 release from bovine semen was 1.09 × 10-10 . Sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of false negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and the probability of BT infection in the bull breeding station had an impact on the model. The identification of high-risk areas and the discovery of key control measures provide a reference for decision makers to assess the risk of French exports of live cattle and bovine semen.

Balancing Quarantine and Self-Distancing Measures in Adaptive Epidemic Networks

We study the relative importance of two key control measures for epidemic spreading: endogenous social self-distancing and exogenous imposed quarantine. We use the framework of adaptive networks, moment-closure, and ordinary differential equations to introduce new model types of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) dynamics. First, we compare computationally expensive, adaptive network simulations with their corresponding computationally efficient ODE equivalents and find excellent agreement. Second, we discover that there exists a critical curve in parameter space for the epidemic threshold, which suggests a mutual compensation effect between the two mitigation strategies: as long as social distancing and quarantine measures are both sufficiently strong, large outbreaks are prevented. Third, we study the total number of infected and the maximum peak during large outbreaks using a combination of analytical estimates and numerical simulations. Also for large outbreaks we find a similar compensation mechanism as for the epidemic threshold. This means that if there is little incentive for social distancing in a population, drastic quarantining is required, and vice versa. Both pure scenarios are unrealistic in practice. The new models show that only a combination of measures is likely to succeed to control epidemic spreading. Fourth, we analytically compute an upper bound for the total number of infected on adaptive networks, using integral estimates in combination with a moment-closure approximation on the level of an observable. Our method allows us to elegantly and quickly check and cross-validate various conjectures about the relevance of different network control measures. In this sense it becomes possible to adapt also other models rapidly to new epidemic challenges.

Prevention Technology of Coal Spontaneous Combustion Induced by Gas Drainage in Deep Coal Seam Mining

Due to high gas content and a low permeability coefficient in deep coal seam mining, the spontaneous combustion of coal around the wellbore can easily occur, leading to difficulties in extracting gas during the mining process. To determine the dangerous area around the borehole and conduct advanced prevention and control measures are the keys to preventing spontaneous combustion in boreholes. However, the dangerous area around the borehole is not clear, the sealing parameters lack scientific basis, and the key prevention and control measures are not clear, which have caused great harm to coal mines. This study took the 24,130 working face of Pingdingshan No. 10 Mine as an example, using numerical simulation, theoretical analysis, and field tests to classify the risks of studying the surrounding area of the wellbore. The dangerous area variations under different lengths of shotcrete in the roadway were analyzed, the optimal plugging parameters were studied, and the current “two plugs and one injection” plugging device was optimized. Based on the oxygen concentration and air leakage rate, a method was proposed to divide the dangerous area of fissure coal spontaneous combustion around the borehole induced by gas extraction. The dangerous area of spontaneous combustion around the borehole was defined as having an oxygen concentration larger than 7% and an air leakage rate less than 0.004 m/s. The comprehensive control measures of the grouting length at 2–4 m, hole-sealing parameter at 20-13 (hole-sealing depth 20 m, hole-sealing length 13 m) and the “two plugs, one injection and one row” device were determined.