Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area Research Articles

Patterns of spatial dynamics and distribution of african elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve, Botswana

The African elephant (Loxodonta africana), once thought to be absent from the Kalahari Desert in Southern Africa, has recently reestablished or expanded its range into the Central Kalahari Game Reserve (CKGR), Botswana, with documented occurrences over the past decade. This study explores the temporal and spatial dynamics of elephants in and around the CKGR, focusing on their largely understudied movement patterns. Movement and home range data was obtained from two adult female and eight adult male elephants using GPS/UHF collars. The analysis revealed distinct seasonal ranging behaviours. Collared females migrated between CKGR and the Okavango Delta periphery, while collared male showed both migratory and sedentary patterns around artificial water points and Gope mine in CKGR. Some collared male elephants migrated to the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) during the wet season, returning to the CKGR in the dry season. This pattern confirms established migration routes and the emergence of pseudo-resident male elephants within CKGR. These findings highlight the importance of management strategies that integrate water distribution, elephant movement, and human-elephant conflicts. Ensuring ecological connectivity beyond the KAZA region is vital for the long-term survival of elephants and other key species.

High carnivore richness despite human pressure and prey depletion in the south-west of the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area

Abstract Transfrontier conservation landscapes, such as the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA TCA) in southern Africa, play a crucial role in preserving global biodiversity and promoting the sustainable development of local communities. However, resources to facilitate management could become scarce across large areas, leading to difficulties in obtaining baseline ecological information. Consequently, in the absence of sustainable management vast landscapes may experience loss of wildlife species, which could destabilize ecosystems. This effect is particularly significant if the loss involves top predators. Hence, understanding carnivore distributions is critical to informing management. We conducted a mammal survey in the Ondjou Conservancy in Namibia, an 8,729 km2 understudied area in the south-west of the KAZA TCA. We analysed camera-trapping data from a 2,304 km2 grid and identified high carnivore richness (18 species) despite widespread human activity and prey depletion. Using a multi-species occupancy framework we found that carnivore occurrence increased with increasing distance from the main village and with closer proximity to the Nyae Nyae Conservancy neighbouring the KAZA TCA, which has large and diverse carnivore populations. Carnivore occurrence was higher when local prey richness was high. The Ondjou Conservancy could function as an important buffer for the larger conservation network, yet rural communities in this area require support for fostering human–wildlife coexistence. Additionally, restoring the natural prey base will be critical to ensuring the long-term viability of carnivore populations in this and other human-impacted landscapes. With many remote areas of transfrontier conservation landscapes being understudied, our findings illustrate the conservation potential of such areas within large-scale conservation networks.

Landscape connectivity for African elephants in the world's largest transfrontier conservation area: A collaborative, multi‐scalar assessment

Abstract Landscape connectivity operates at a variety of scales, depending on the geography of the area in question and the focal species or ecological process under consideration. Most connectivity studies, however, are typically focused on a single scale, which in the case of resistance‐based connectivity modelling, is often the entire landscape or protected area (PA) network. This large, single‐scale focus may miss areas that are important for connectivity at smaller scales and that can be documented via observed animal movements without resorting to landscape‐wide statistical modelling and extrapolation approaches. Here, we characterize landscape connectivity at three different scales (local/micro, inter‐PA, and landscape‐wide/macro), using observed animal movements rather than conventional resistance surface models, to produce a connectivity conservation blueprint for African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Kavango‐Zambezi transfrontier conservation area (KAZA) in southern Africa. This analysis is based on an extensive, high‐resolution GPS tracking database comprising approximately 4 million GPS locations from nearly 300 tagged elephants and their associated herds. Our results show that high‐fidelity elephant use of micro‐corridors is typically—though not exclusively—related to directed movements towards water, often amidst heavy anthropogenic presence. Movement pathways that connected KAZA's core protected areas were longer and variable, with some channelled into narrow areas of use and others more dispersed across larger sub‐landscapes. At the largest scale, a network analysis incorporating all used landscape grid cells revealed several clusters of large‐scale movement corridors that connected distant parts of KAZA. Synthesis and applications: Our three scales of analyses reveal disparate geographical priorities for connectivity conservation that collectively could help ensure the functional connectivity of KAZA for its largest inhabitants. Each scale will require its own set of inter‐related conservation interventions, while further research into areas with sparse data collection, and other species of conservation concern, could reveal additional connectivity priorities at each scale.

Performing multispecies studies in Southern Africa: historical legacies, marginalised subjects, reflexive positionalities

Multispecies studies are known for tackling human exceptionalism. Whilst the field has seen a remarkable increase in popularity amongst scholars in the humanities and social sciences, critiques argue that it neglects inequalities and consequential differences amongst humans and between humans and other-than-humans. These critiques are especially relevant in the context of Southern Africa, where extreme inequalities amongst humans persist whilst wildlife is often perceived to enjoy a favoured position in the region‘s prominent conservation industries. As four researchers working in a multispecies study project focusing on the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area in Southern Africa, we pose the question of what a politicised multispecies studies might look like. In this article, we share our thoughts and reflections on working in this complex political landscape. Using insights from our own fields, we share some of the persistent concerns encountered during fieldwork and discuss and contextualise these by drawing on multispecies literature that deals with similar concerns. We identify three salient themes that should inform and politicise multispecies work in postcolonial conservation landscapes: historical legacies, reflexive positionalities and marginalised subjects.

Hunting the hippo: a brief history of wildlife hunting and the reconfiguration of animal-human relations in Namibia’s Zambezi region

The Zambezi region in north-eastern Namibia is located at the centre of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA TFCA), an area that is endowed with a great variety of wildlife and managed not only to protect this asset but also to promote its proliferation and economic utilisation. In this contribution I consider the notion of hunting in Namibia and explore the realms of local hunting and trophy hunting from the turn of the twentieth century until today. Starting my journey with the depiction of hippo hunting in colonial times, I explore how a hunting narrative was created along the spectacle of hunting big game. Besides the glorification of hippopotami amongst white hunters and early European travellers, the modification of hunting practices that occurred alongside the reconnaissance of this region in the early twentieth century resulted in strong pressures on hippo populations — and wildlife more generally — and led to the strict regulation of all hunting practices in favour of trophy hunting and at the expense of local hunting. This colonial trajectory of hunting has played a major role in the planning and implementation of a conservation landscape that has strong effects on local livelihoods.

DESCRIPTION OF FEMALE DENDRITOBILHARZIA PULVERULENTA (BRAUN, 1901) SKRJABIN, 1924 FROM TWO NEW AVIAN HOSTS IN NAMIBIA WITH PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSES AND COMMENTS ON SEVERAL TAXONOMICALLY UNCERTAIN AVIAN SCHISTOSOME SEQUENCES.

During a 2021 parasitological survey of birds in the Nyae Nyae-Khaudum Dispersal Area (Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, Namibia), we collected 9 specimens of Dendritobilharzia pulverulenta (Braun, 1901) Skrjabin, 1924 infecting the blood (heart lumen) of a white-backed duck, Thalassornis leuconotus (Eyton, 1838) (Anseriformes: Anatidae), and a fulvous whistling duck, Dendrocygna bicolor (Vieillot, 1816) (Anatidae). These flukes were fixed for morphology and preserved for DNA extraction. We assigned our specimens to DendritobilharziaSkrjabin and Zakharow, 1920 because they were strongly dorso-ventrally flattened in both sexes and had an intestinal cyclocoel with a zig-zag common cecum with lateral dendritic ramifications, numerous testes posterior to the cyclocoel and flanking the dendritic ramifications, and a tightly compacted convoluted ovary as well as lacking an oral sucker, ventral sucker, and gynaecophoric canal. Further, our specimens were morphologically identical to previously published descriptions of D. pulverulenta. Sequences of the 28S from our specimens were nearly identical to those identified as D. pulverulenta from North America (New Mexico), and our 28S phylogenetic analysis recovered D. pulverulenta within a polytomy of other Gigantobilharziinae spp. The CO1 phylogenetic analysis recovered a monophyletic Dendritobilharzia and, with low taxon sampling, a monophyletic Gigantobilharzia. This is the first record of a species of Dendritobilharzia infecting these ducks as well as the first record of an adult Dendritobilharzia from sub-Saharan Africa. The original description of adult D. pulverulenta (type locality: northern Sudan) was based on 2 males only, and hence the present study is the first description of female D. pulverulenta from Africa (the continent of the type locality). We reassign 2 Gigantobilharziinae spp. based on morphology and nucleotide evidence: Gigantobilharzia ensenadense (Lorenti, Brant, Gilardoni, Diaz, and Cremonte, 2022) Dutton and Bullard, n. comb., and Gigantobilharzia patagonense (Lorenti, Brant, Gilardoni, Diaz, and Cremonte, 2022) Dutton and Bullard, n. comb. We also comment on several avian schistosome sequences whose identities need confirmation or that likely have been misidentified.

Polycentric Groundwater Governance: Insights from the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area

This paper analyses groundwater governance within a transfrontier conservation landscape. Given the current heightened interest in groundwater development, it is imperative that more thought be given to how groundwater resources can best be managed in different contexts for multiple uses and users. Transfrontier conservation areas are areas of vast biological diversity whose functioning and ecosystem integrity depends on the availability of water to sustain ecosystems and subsequently derive economic benefit. Further, climate vulnerable rural communities depend on and form an important part of this landscape. The work highlighted in this paper is based on a study conducted in parts of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (TFCA), the largest TFCA in the world. Climate induced challenges such as droughts and general poor land use planning have resulted in threats to long term sustainability of freshwater ecosystems and increased incidences of human-wildlife conflicts over limited water resources. Effective groundwater governance can potentially provide pathways for alleviating these challenges. Building on the theoretical fundamentals of polycentric governance, this paper analyses the case of the KAZA TFCA in which multiple levels of governance exist. The paper discusses how to achieve coordination and accountability within a shared landscape to foster sustainable use and management of groundwater. Groundwater within a TFCA context has the potential to alleviate human-wildlife conflict over freshwater, support groundwater dependant ecosystems and sustain smallholder agriculture for the rural communities. Understanding this role of groundwater adds to the framing of freshwater governance and conservation efforts within a TFCA and the identification and development of platforms for the integrated management of groundwater. Bringing together freshwater and conservation institutions in a multi-country context towards integrated water resource management is an initial and novel attempt which forms the foundation for achieving optimal governance approaches in the commons.

Evaluating patterns and drivers of mammal space use and richness in the Angolan savannah woodlands of the Kavango‐Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area

AbstractLarge transboundary protected areas such as the Kavango‐Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA‐TFCA), improve mammal conservation by addressing biodiversity threats on regional and international levels, but an adequate understanding of mammal space use and richness within protected areas is critical for effective management planning. This information has however been missing from the Angolan component of the KAZA‐TFCA, such as areas of Luengue‐Luiana National Park (LLNP), especially compared with neighbouring countries. We used camera trap data from 2021 to 2023 to investigate species richness of medium‐ and large‐sized mammals in two hotspot areas of LLNP, as well as assess the space use patterns of 9 carnivore and 16 herbivore species. A total of 48 species were recorded over 10,781 camera trapping nights, with African elephant (Loxodonta africana) and small antelope (e.g. common duiker Sylvicapra grimmia and steenbok Raphicerus campestris) being the most common. Species composition differed significantly between sites, with 21 species more relatively abundant at Ndunjuru, including cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), and eight species more relatively abundant at Bico, including lion (Panthera leo) and hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). The detection probability of 22 species were affected by one or more ecological (e.g. proximity to rivers) or anthropogenic (e.g. human settlement) covariate. These results are intended to act as a baseline to monitor conservation effort and aid habitat management in LLNP, as well as similar protected areas within the KAZA‐TFCA and elsewhere.

Evaluating connectivity models for conservation: insights from African lion dispersal patterns

ContextEvaluating connectivity and identifying corridors for protection is a central challenge in applied ecology and conservation. Rigorous validation and comparison of how approaches perform in capturing biological processes is needed to guide research and conservation action.ObjectivesWe aim to compare the ability of connectivity surfaces optimised using home range and dispersal data to accurately capture lion movement during dispersal, using cost-distance and circuit theory approaches.MethodsWe delineate periods of dispersal in African lions (Panthera leo) to obtain movement trajectories of dispersing individuals across the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, southern Africa. We use these trajectories to assess comparative measures of connectivity values at dispersal points across surfaces and the ability of models to discriminate between observed and randomised paths.ResultsEncouragingly, results show that on average, all connectivity approaches and resistance surfaces used perform well in predicting movements of an independent set of dispersing lions. Cost-distance approaches were generally more sensitive to resistance input than circuit theory, but differences in performance measures between resistance inputs were small across both approaches.ConclusionsFindings suggest that home range data can be used to generate resistance surfaces for connectivity maps in this system, with independent dispersal data providing a promising approach to thresholding what is considered as “connected” when delineating corridors. Most dispersers traversed through landscapes that had minimal human settlement and are likely highly connected by dispersal. Research into limiting factors and dispersal abilities will be critical to understanding how populations will respond to increasing habitat fragmentation and human expansion.

Empirically modelling household vulnerability and food security across a southern African land system

ABSTRACT People reliant on agropastoral land systems are vulnerable to variability and changes in land function. Their vulnerability is linked to their exposure and sensitivity to various land system components and is often mediated by access to multiple livelihood capitals. We quantify aspects of that intersection with household vulnerability as measured by food insecurity, and as it is mediated by access to livelihood capitals. We use a structural equation model of household vulnerability, organized under a livelihoods framework, fitted empirically using a combination of information from 726 household surveys. These surveys were conducted in communities in Namibia, Botswana and Zambia, and are contained within a socio-ecological gradient in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area of southern Africa. We provide evidence that adaptive capacity strongly mediates household vulnerability to food insecurity via both direct and indirect pathways that are statistically associated with land use-derived functions.

Complexities of multispecies coexistence: Animal diseases and diverging modes of ordering at the wildlife–livestock interface in Southern Africa

The transmission of diseases between wildlife and livestock poses a major challenge to both conservation and livestock sectors in Southern Africa. Focusing on the cases of foot and mouth disease and trypanosomiasis in the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, this article explores the complexity of coexistence between humans, livestock, wildlife, vectors and pathogens. Multispecies coexistence, we suggest, is best understood not only through the relations between species, but also as characterized by a collision of modes of ordering. Drawing on expert interviews and a discourse analysis of policy documents and reports, we identify three modes of ordering coexistence: a categorical and increasingly disfavoured mode of species eradication, a territorial mode focused on containment and separation, and an infrastructural mode premised on connectivity between populations, landscapes and ecosystems. Together, these different modes of ordering pose a challenge to scientific knowledge production; where uncertainties present themselves not so much in the form of ignorance or knowledge gaps, but rather in the form of ambiguity: of knowing diseases and species differently. In this view, living with pathogens becomes a matter of recognizing the partiality of knowledge and the positionality of knowledge producers and users, as well as highlighting potential sites of alignment.

Transboundary Fisheries Management in Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA-TFCA): Prospects and Dilemmas

Inland fisheries in the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA-TFCA) offer food security to the riverine communities across the region. They also contribute towards the attainment of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals 1 and 15, which aim to alleviate poverty and maintain biodiversity conservation. Despite this significant role, the fisheries have suffered severe declines in the previous decades due to multiple factors, such as overfishing and poor legislation. Furthermore, climate change is exerting pressure by altering the ecology and productivity of the river systems. The unprecedented challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic have further constrained management efforts. Attempts to address these challenges have pointed towards transboundary fisheries management as a silver bullet in moving towards sustainable fisheries management. However, the implementation of this strategy in the region has encountered numerous roadblocks, thereby subjecting the river ecosystem to a wider environmental threat, with dire consequences on livelihoods. This paper reviews existing management and governance structures together with key informant interviews to elicit primary and secondary data essential for management at the regional level. The study identifies conflicting regulations, and inadequate policies and institutions across the region as major bottlenecks affecting the successful implementation of transboundary fisheries management. Finally, the paper offers some suggestions for the improvement of fisheries management in the region.

Can Environmental Injustices be Addressed in Conservation? Settlement History and Conservation-Induced Displacement in the Case of Lyanshulu in the Zambezi Region, Namibia

The Zambezi Region of Namibia is known for its vast conservation landscape, which is part of the world’s largest transboundary conservation area – the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA TFCA). Less known are the settlement histories of the communities displaced from their villages during the planning and implementation of this conservation landscape. We reconstruct the settlement history of two families that lived on two islands in the Kwando River and the adjacent riverbanks in today’s Mudumu NP, and we describe the circumstances that led to the designation of a national park in this region and the subsequent conservation-induced displacement. The evicted families increasingly protest and legally contest estrangement from their ancestral land, which is now a protected area. We argue that current nature-conservation efforts can succeed only if issues of past and present environmental injustices are comprehensively addressed.

Tracking a blue wave of ephemeral water across arid southern Africa

Surface water in arid regions is essential to many organisms including large mammals of conservation concern. For many regions little is known about the extent, ecology and hydrology of ephemeral waters, because they are challenging to map given their ephemeral nature and small sizes. Our goal was to advance surface water knowledge by mapping and monitoring ephemeral water from the wet to dry seasons across the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area of southern Africa (300 000 km2). We mapped individual waterholes for six time points each year from mid-2017 to mid-2020, and described their presence, extent, duration, variability, and recurrence. We further analyzed a wide range of physical and landscape aspects of waterhole locations, including soils, geology, and topography, to climate and soil moisture. We identified 2.1 million previously unmapped ephemeral waterholes (85%–89% accuracy) that seasonally extend across 23.5% of the study area. We confirmed a distinct ‘blue wave’ with ephemeral water across the region peaking at the end of the rainy season. We observed a wide range of waterhole types and sizes, with large variances in seasonal and interannual hydrology. We found that ephemeral surface water was associated with loam soils in the study area. From the wettest time period to the driest, there was a ∼44 000 km2 (62%) decrease in ephemeral water extent across the region—these dramatic seasonal fluctuations have implications for wildlife movement. A warmer and drier climate, expected human population growth, and associated agricultural expansion and development may threaten these sensitive and highly variable water resources and the wildlife that depend on them.

Rural livelihoods, community-based conservation, and human–wildlife conflict: Scope for synergies?

Halting biodiversity loss is a major contemporary challenge. Nature protection can help conserve biodiversity, but increasing wildlife numbers inside protected areas and shrinking habitats intensify interactions between humans and wildlife, potentially causing human–wildlife conflict (HWC). Contemporary narratives of HWC highlight detrimental effects on households' socioeconomic outcomes. Despite a wealth of literature on HWC, many studies remain descriptive and little inferential evidence has been provided. Here we identify the determinants and effects of reported HWC on household outcomes using spatial predictors and an original farm-household dataset collected in Namibia's share of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. In addition to dependence on agriculture, we find that community-based conservation, the share of a community's area set aside for conservation, and habitat connectivity are key drivers of HWC. Contrary to contemporary narratives of HWC, we find that reported conflicts did not have strong negative effects on household income and livelihood diversity. Conversely, community-based wildlife conservation increases income and livelihood diversity among participating households. It is, however, also associated with food insecurity concerns. Such concerns may be driven by comparatively higher restrictions related to land use planning and zoning that constrain productive land uses, such as agriculture. Our findings suggest that community-based conservation can create development synergies for households in favorable environments, despite increasing HWC risks. However, potential trade-offs including non-material costs warrant further research.

Spatially heterogeneous effects of collective action on environmental dependence in Namibia’s Zambezi region

Many poor rural households depend on products from non-cultivated environments for subsistence and commercialization. Collective action schemes, such as community-based natural resource management (CBNRM), aim at maintaining natural resource quality and thus potentially contribute to the sustainability of environmental income sources. Little is known about whether and under which contextual conditions these schemes effectively promote environmental income generation or imply trade-offs between wildlife conservation and socioeconomic development. We rely on a unique combination of original farm-household data with a rich set of spatiotemporal covariates to quantify environmental income and dependency in Namibia’s Zambezi region at the heart of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. We then estimate the effect of CBNRM on environmental income and dependency in a quasi-experimental regression-based approach. Controlling for historical variables that affected selection into formal CBNRM schemes, we further explore the role of contextual variation in exposure to tourism activity. Results suggest that CBNRM fosters livelihood strategies that are, on average, more dependent on the environment. However, this effect is driven by outcomes of households that live in close proximity to touristic enterprises, where such livelihood strategies align better with other income generating opportunities than in areas where agriculture represents the only viable economic alternative.

Environmental and anthropogenic drivers of African leopard Panthera pardus population density

Globally three quarters of large terrestrial mammalian predators are in decline and many populations are data deficient, including those of African leopards across much of their range. Here we assess the drivers of decline African leopard populations in 16 camera trap surveys covering a total area of 15,120 km2, across a gradient of anthropogenic impact, management and geography, in protected areas across the Zimbabwean component of the Kavango-Zambezi (KAZA) Transfrontier Conservation Area. Population density was calculated using spatially explicit mark-recapture estimators and Generalised Additive Models (GAM) were used to assess factors affecting population density. Density estimates ranged from 0.7 to 12.2 (mean 2.9 ± 2.7) leopards/100km2. Leopard density was higher in wooded sites and rugged terrain but negatively affected by human factors including human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP), trophy hunting risk and bush-meat poaching. High lion densities (>6.0 lions/ 100km2) negatively affected leopard density. Annual rainfall over a gradient of ~300 mm across survey sites was not influential in predicting population density.Previous assessments of the drivers of declining leopard population density (CITES 1988), asserting that leopard densities can be predicted by annual rainfall and are unaffected by human disturbance in unmodified habitat are not supported by our findings. We recommend that the 1988 assessment, used to manage CITES leopard trophy hunting export quotas since the late 1980s, should be reviewed.

Random forest modelling of multi‐scale, multi‐species habitat associations within KAZA transfrontier conservation area using spoor data

Abstract As landscape‐scale conservation models grow in prominence, assessments of how wildlife utilise multiple‐use landscapes are required to inform effective conservation and management planning. Such efforts should incorporate multi‐species perspectives to maximise value for conservation, and should account for scale to accurately capture species‐environment relationships. We show that the random forest machine learning algorithm can be used to model large‐scale sign‐based data in a multi‐scale framework. We used this method to investigate scale‐dependent habitat associations for 16 mammal species of high conservation importance across the southern Kavango Zambezi (KAZA) Transfrontier Conservation Area in Botswana and Zimbabwe. Our findings revealed substantial variation in factors shaping habitat use across species, and illustrate that different species often have divergent responses to the same environmental and anthropogenic factors, and differ in the scales at which they respond to them. For all variables across all species, scale optimisation most often selected our largest scale. Precipitation, soil nutrients, and vegetation appeared to be the most important factors determining mammal distributions, likely through their associations with food resources for herbivores and, in turn, prey availability for carnivores. Anthropogenic pressures also had an important influence, with many species selecting against areas with high cattle density. The variety of relationships with human density indicated that species vary in their tolerance of humans. We found a consistent positive relationship with areas under high protection, and negative relationship with unprotected and less‐strictly protected areas. Policy implications. Through a novel application of random forest modelling to spoor data from 16 mammal species, this study highlights the importance of adopting a multi‐scale, multi‐species approach for decision‐making processes that depend on understanding wildlife distributions and habitat associations, such as protected area and corridor prioritisation. The findings identify changing rainfall patterns and increasing livestock numbers as emerging trends that may impact wildlife distributions, both within sub‐Saharan Africa and on a global scale. Wildlife management authorities should use modelling exercises and adaptive management to ensure that protected area networks remain fit for purpose under anticipated changes in rainfall under climate change, and explore initiatives that promote coexistence of wildlife and livestock.

Utility of Human Footprint Pressure Mapping for Large Carnivore Conservation: The Kafue-Zambezi Interface

Proxies and indicators to monitor cumulative human pressures provide useful tools to model change and understanding threshold pressures at which species can persist, are extirpated, or might recolonize human-impacted landscapes. We integrated modelling and field observations of human pressure variables to generate a site-specific, fine scale Human Footprint Pressure map for 39,000 km2 of rangelands at the Kafue–Zambezi interface—a key linkage in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. We then modelled Human Footprint Pressure against empirically derived occurrence data for lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) to generate Human Footprint Pressure threshold ranges at which each species were persisting or extirpated within ten wildlife managed areas linking Kafue National Park to the Zambezi River. Results overcame many limitations inherent in existing large-scale Human Footprint Pressure models, providing encouraging direction for this approach. Human Footprint Pressure thresholds were broadly similar to existing studies, indicating this approach is valid for site- and species-specific modelling. Model performance would improve as additional datasets become available and with improved understanding of how asymmetrical and nonlinear threshold responses to footprint pressure change across spatial-temporal scales. However, our approach has broader utility for local and region-wide conservation planning where mapping and managing human disturbance will help in managing carnivore species within and without protected area networks.

Modelling Multi-Species Connectivity at the Kafue-Zambezi Interface: Implications for Transboundary Carnivore Conservation

Linking wildlife areas with corridors facilitating species dispersal between core habitats is a key intervention to reduce the deleterious effects of population isolation. Large heterogeneous networks of areas managed for wildlife protection present site- and species-scale complexity underpinning the scope and performance of proposed corridors. In Southern Africa, the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area seeks to link Kafue National Park to a cluster of wildlife areas centered in Namibia and Botswana. To assess and identify potential linkages on the Zambian side, we generated a high-resolution land cover map and combined empirical occurrence data for Lions (Panthera leo), Leopards (Panthera pardus) and Spotted Hyena (Crocuta crocuta) to build habitat suitability maps. We then developed four connectivity models to map potential single and multi-species corridors between Kafue and the Zambezi River border with Namibia. Single and multi-species connectivity models selected corridors follow broadly similar pathways narrowing significantly in central-southern areas of the Kafue-Zambezi interface, indicating a potential connectivity bottleneck. Capturing the full extent of human disturbance and barriers to connectivity remains challenging, suggesting increased risk to corridor integrity than modelled here. Notwithstanding model limitations, these data provide important results for land use planners at the Kafue-Zambezi Interface, removing much speculations from existing connectivity narratives. Failure to control human disturbance and secure corridors will leave Kafue National Park, Zambia’s majority component in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, isolated.