Utility of Human Footprint Pressure Mapping for Large Carnivore Conservation: The Kafue-Zambezi Interface

Abstract

Proxies and indicators to monitor cumulative human pressures provide useful tools to model change and understanding threshold pressures at which species can persist, are extirpated, or might recolonize human-impacted landscapes. We integrated modelling and field observations of human pressure variables to generate a site-specific, fine scale Human Footprint Pressure map for 39,000 km2 of rangelands at the Kafue–Zambezi interface—a key linkage in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. We then modelled Human Footprint Pressure against empirically derived occurrence data for lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) to generate Human Footprint Pressure threshold ranges at which each species were persisting or extirpated within ten wildlife managed areas linking Kafue National Park to the Zambezi River. Results overcame many limitations inherent in existing large-scale Human Footprint Pressure models, providing encouraging direction for this approach. Human Footprint Pressure thresholds were broadly similar to existing studies, indicating this approach is valid for site- and species-specific modelling. Model performance would improve as additional datasets become available and with improved understanding of how asymmetrical and nonlinear threshold responses to footprint pressure change across spatial-temporal scales. However, our approach has broader utility for local and region-wide conservation planning where mapping and managing human disturbance will help in managing carnivore species within and without protected area networks.