Juvenile Survival Probabilities Research Articles

Variable breeding success and its implication in the conservation of endangered yellow‐eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) at the New Zealand subantarctic Auckland Islands

Abstract Knowledge of breeding success is essential for conservation, as it is required for monitoring populations and survival trends. Seabird reproductive success can be negatively affected by prey availability, marine‐based stochasticity, extreme weather events, individual breeders' performance and direct threats such as disease, predation and fisheries interactions. The endangered yellow‐eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) is declining in mainland New Zealand, however, little is known about its breeding success in the subantarctic where the majority of the species breeds. Yellow‐eyed penguin breeding success data were collected from a total of 167 nests on subantarctic Enderby Island, Auckland Islands, New Zealand, from the 2015 to 2017 breeding seasons. This included egg and chick mortality and fledging rates, plus a wider sample of the fledgling condition of 276 chicks. Fledging success was higher than in mainland New Zealand in some years, although chicks were smaller and lighter on average, highlighting the need for more information on juvenile survival probabilities in the subantarctic. Breeding success measures were similar in 2015 and 2016, but a large egg mortality in 2017 caused a significant reduction in breeding success that year. Such variability requires more investigation into the correlates of breeding success, including possible stressors such as foraging success, adverse weather and environmental effects, and pathogens. These results demonstrate the need for ongoing monitoring of yellow‐eyed penguin breeding success across the subantarctic in order to establish baselines for normal variation and to determine whether anthropogenic (manageable) factors may be contributing to low productivity. This research highlights an important consideration for endangered species conservation; that breeding success may not be consistent over time, or across a species' entire range. Additional monitoring of all breeding populations should be carried out to ensure up‐to‐date information is available to inform conservation management decisions for the species.

Natal colony influences age-specific movement patterns of the Yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis)

BackgroundAs for other life history traits, variation occurs in movement patterns with important impacts on population demography and community interactions. Individuals can show variation in the extent of seasonal movement (or migration) or can change migratory routes among years. Internal factors, such as age or body condition, may strongly influence changes in movement patterns. Indeed, young individuals often tend to move across larger spatial scales compared to adults, but relatively few studies have investigated the proximate and ultimate factors driving such variation. This is particularly the case for seabirds in which the sub-adult period is long and difficult to follow. Here, we examine migration variation and the factors that affect it in a common Mediterranean seabird, the Yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis).MethodsThe data include the encounter histories of 5158 birds marked as fledglings between 1999 and 2004 at 14 different colonies in southern France and resighted over 10 years. Using a multi-event mark-recapture modeling framework, we use these data to estimate the probability of movement and survival, taking into account recapture heterogeneity and age.ResultsIn accordance with previous studies, we find that young individuals have greater mobility than older individuals. However, the spatial extent of juvenile movements depends on natal colony location, with a strong difference in the proportion of sedentary individuals among colonies less than 50 km apart. Colony quality or local population dynamics may explain these differences. Indeed, young birds from colonies with strong juvenile survival probabilities (~ 0.75) appear to be more sedentary than those from colonies with low survival probabilities (~ 0.36).ConclusionsThis study shows the importance of studying individuals of different ages and from different colonies when trying to understand seabird movement strategies. Local breeding success and the availability of food resources may explain part of the among colony differences we observe and require explicit testing. We discuss our results with respect to the feedback loop that may occur between breeding success and mobility, and its potential implications for population demography and the dissemination of avian disease at different spatial scales.

Within‐year and among‐year variation in impacts of targeted conservation management on juvenile survival in a threatened population

Abstract Overall impacts of targeted conservation interventions on population growth rate (λ) will depend on within‐year and among‐year variation in exposure of target individuals to interventions, and in intervention efficacy in increasing vital rates of exposed individuals. Juvenile survival is one key vital rate that commonly varies substantially within and among years, and consequently drives variation in λ. However, within‐year, among‐year and overall impacts of targeted interventions on population‐wide survival probabilities of potentially mobile juveniles are rarely quantified, precluding full evaluation and evidence‐based refinement of interventions. We applied multi‐state mark–recapture models to 8 years of ring–resighting data from a threatened red‐billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population to quantify within‐year and among‐year variation in juvenile exposure to a targeted intervention of supplementary feeding and parasite treatment, and to estimate efficacy in increasing juvenile survival probability. We then combined and up‐scaled these estimated effects to evaluate the impact of the 8‐year intervention on overall population‐wide survival probability and resulting population size. High proportions of surviving juveniles (>70%) were exposed to the intervention across the annual biological cycle in all years. Exposure was associated with higher short‐term survival probabilities through the full annual cycle. Consequently, management increased estimated population‐wide annual juvenile survival by approximately 0.14. However, such effects were only evident in cohorts with low overall annual survival. Population models projected that these impacts on annual juvenile survival substantially reduced population decline, such that population size at the end of the 8‐year intervention was approximately double that without management. Synthesis and applications. Our results show how complex patterns of within‐year and among‐year variation in exposure and efficacy of targeted conservation interventions can arise and scale up to affect population‐level outcomes. We demonstrate overall positive effects of a joint supplementary feeding and parasite treatment intervention on the focal chough population, but also highlight potential routes to improve efficacy, for example, through more precise targeting of interventions and agricultural management actions in the context of among‐year variation in environmental conditions.

The trade-offs of foraging at landfills: Landfill use enhances hatching success but decrease the juvenile survival of their offspring on white storks (Ciconia ciconia).

During the last decades, landfills have become a valuable food source for wildlife, being in some cases determinants of large avian population increases. Superabundant food resources at landfills can increase reproductive and/or survival parameters; however, negative effects such as intoxication, plastic ingestion, skeletal deformities, unbalanced oxidative stress, and other health problems have also been reported. White stork (Ciconia ciconia) commonly benefits from landfill resources. Here, we evaluate potential landfill effects on demographic parameters (reproduction and offspring survival) at the individual level in a single population. Our results show that a more intense use of landfills by breeders has a positive effect on hatching success but a negative effect on juvenile survival probability after emancipation, at least during the first year of life. High amount of food and proximity to landfill may explain their beneficial effect on reproductive parameters. On the other hand, poor quality food, pollutants, and pathogens acquired during early development from a diet based on refuse may be responsible for reduced future survival probability. Consequently, both positive and negative effects were detected, being foraging at landfills at low to medium levels the better strategy. Although our study shows that intense foraging on rubbish can imply both costs and benefits at an individual level, the benefits of superabundant food provisioning observed at population level by other studies cannot be ignored. Management actions should be designed to improve natural food resources, reduce non-natural mortality and/or human disturbances to guarantee the species viability under current European Union regulations designed to ban open-air landfills in a near future.

Impact of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae on juvenile bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) survival in the northern Basin and Range ecosystem.

Determining the demographic impacts of wildlife disease is complex because extrinsic and intrinsic drivers of survival, reproduction, body condition, and other factors that may interact with disease vary widely. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae infection has been linked to persistent mortality in juvenile bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), although mortality appears to vary widely across subspecies, populations, and outbreaks. Hypotheses for that variation range from interactions with nutrition, population density, genetic variation in the pathogen, genetic variation in the host, and other factors. We investigated factors related to survival of juvenile bighorn sheep in reestablished populations in the northern Basin and Range ecosystem, managed as the formerly-recognized California subspecies (hereafter, “California lineage”). We investigated whether survival probability of 4-month juveniles would vary by (1) presence of M. ovipneumoniae-infected or exposed individuals in populations, (2) population genetic diversity, and (3) an index of forage suitability. We monitored 121 juveniles across a 3-year period in 13 populations in southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada. We observed each juvenile and GPS-collared mother semi-monthly and established 4-month capture histories for the juvenile to estimate survival. All collared adult females were PCR-tested at least once for M. ovipneumoniae infection. The presence of M. ovipneumoniae-infected juveniles was determined by observing juvenile behavior and PCR-testing dead juveniles. We used a known-fate model with different time effects to determine if the probability of survival to 4 months varied temporally or was influenced by disease or other factors. We detected dead juveniles infected with M. ovipneumoniae in only two populations. Derived juvenile survival probability at four months in populations where infected juveniles were not detected was more than 20 times higher. Detection of infected adults or adults with antibody levels suggesting prior exposure was less predictive of juvenile survival. Survival varied temporally but was not strongly influenced by population genetic diversity or nutrition, although genetic diversity within most study area populations was very low. We conclude that the presence of M. ovipneumoniae can cause extremely low juvenile survival probability in translocated bighorn populations of the California lineage, but found little influence that genetic diversity or nutrition affect juvenile survival. Yet, after the PCR+ adult female in one population died, subsequent observations found 11 of 14 ( 79%) collared adult females had surviving juveniles at 4-months, suggesting that targeted removals of infected adults should be evaluated as a management strategy.

Estimating Survival for Elusive Juvenile Pond‐Breeding Salamanders

ABSTRACTJuvenile vital rates have important effects on population dynamics for many species, but this demographic is often difficult to locate and track. As such, we frequently lack reliable estimates of juvenile survival, which are necessary for accurately assessing population stability and potential management approaches to conserve biodiversity. We estimated survival rates for elusive juveniles of 3 species, the ringed salamander (Ambystoma annulatum), spotted salamander (A. maculatum), and small‐mouthed salamander (A. texanum), using 2 approaches. First, we conducted an 11‐month (2016–2017) mark‐recapture study within semi‐natural enclosures and used Bayesian Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber models to estimate survival and recapture probabilities. Second, we inferred the expected annual juvenile survival rate given published vital rates for pre‐metamorphic and adult ambystomatids assuming stable population growth. For all 3 species, juvenile survival probabilities were constant across recapture occasions, whereas recapture probability estimates were time‐dependent. Further, survival and recapture probabilities among study species were similar. Post‐study sampling revealed that the initial study period median estimate of annual survival probability (0.39) underestimated the number of salamanders known alive at 11 months. We therefore appended approximately 1 year of opportunistic data, which produced a median annual survival probability of 0.50, encompassing salamanders that we knew to have been alive. Calculation from literature values suggested a mean annual terrestrial juvenile ambystomatid survival probability of 0.49. Similar results among our approaches indicated that juvenile survival estimates for the study species were robust and likely comparable to rates in nature. These estimates can now be confidently applied to research, monitoring, and management efforts for the study species and ecologically similar taxa. Our findings indicated that similarly robust vital rate estimates for subsets of ecologically and phylogenetically similar species can provide reasonable surrogate demographic information that can be used to reveal key factors influencing population viability for data‐deficient species. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

The ecology of suburban juvenile European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in Denmark.

European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) populations are widespread across diverse habitats but are declining in Western Europe. Drastic declines have been described in the UK, with the most severe declines occurring in rural areas. Hedgehogs are widely distributed in Denmark, but their status remains unknown.Fieldwork on hedgehogs has tended to focus on rural areas, leaving their ecology in suburban habitats largely unexplored, with clear implications for conservation initiatives. Here, we study the ecology of 35 juvenile hedgehogs using radio tracking during their first year of life in the suburbs of western Copenhagen.We use radio‐tracking data to estimate (a) home range sizes in autumn and spring/summer, (b) survival during their first year of life, (c) the body mass changes before, during, and after hibernation, and (d) the hibernation behavior of the juvenile hedgehogs.We show that males and females have small home ranges compared with previous studies. The 95% MCP home range sizes in autumn were 1.33 ha (95% CI = 0.88–2.00) for males and 1.40 ha (95% CI = 0.84–2.32) for females; for spring/summer they were 6.54 ha (95% CI = 3.76–11.38) for males and 1.51 ha (95% CI = 0.63–3.63) for females. The juvenile survival probabilities during the study period from September 2014 to July 2015 were .56 for females and .79 for males. All healthy individuals gained body mass during the autumn and survived hibernation with little body mass loss thus demonstrating that the juveniles in the study were capable of gaining sufficient weight in the wild to survive their first hibernation.The climate is changing, but there is a lack of knowledge on how this affects mammal ecology. The exceptionally mild autumn of 2014 caused the juvenile hedgehogs to delay hibernation for up to a month compared with previous studies in Denmark.

Survival of Juvenile Fall‐Run Chinook Salmon through the San Joaquin River Delta, California, 2010–2015

AbstractSurvival of juvenile fall‐run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha through the San Joaquin River Delta of California (hereafter, “Delta”) has been low for most estimates since 2002 and has been consistently low since 2010. From 2010 through 2015, annual estimates of the probability of surviving through the Delta (from Mossdale to Chipps Island, approximately 92 river kilometers) ranged from 0 to 0.05, based on acoustic‐telemetry data from smolt‐sized hatchery Chinook Salmon. River conditions were poor in most of these years; average daily river discharge into the Delta from the San Joaquin River was <40 m3/s in four of the six study years. In the high flow year of 2011 (average daily river discharge = 278–308 m3/s), the juvenile survival probability through the Delta was estimated at only 0.02 (SE < 0.01), suggesting increased flows alone will not be sufficient to resolve the low survival through the Delta. The low survival in this short portion of the salmon's life history makes achieving a minimal smolt‐to‐adult ratio of ≥2% nearly impossible for this fish stock. Over half of the fish surviving through the Delta during 6 years of study were salvaged at the Central Valley Project's water export facility and transported for release just upstream of Chipps Island.

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions.

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends.

High juvenile annual survival probabilities in Southern Rockhopper PenguinsEudyptes chrysocomeare independent of individual fledging traits

Juvenile survival is an important demographic parameter. Southern Rockhopper Penguins Eudyptes chrysocome have undergone a dramatic population decline in the past century across their distribution, but the demographic processes are poorly understood. To estimate juvenile annual survival probabilities, Rockhopper Penguin chicks from two cohorts on New Island, Falkland Islands, were marked with transponders and recorded in subsequent years using an automated gateway. We first estimated annual survival and detection probabilities using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, and found that both probabilities were extremely high (81% in the first and 98% in the second, third and fourth years of life), even in comparison with adult birds. Because detection probability after 3 years was effectively 1, and our sample size (n = 114) was too small to explore the effects of individual traits on survival in a CJS model, we assessed whether sex, cohort, body mass and laying sequence affected whether juveniles returned to the colony during their first 3 years of life using a simple generalized linear model that assumed perfect detection. Juveniles from the first cohort and males showed a higher return probability than juveniles from the second cohort and females. There was no clear effect of fledging body mass on return rate, probably related to the favourable environmental conditions during the study period. The laying sequence did not markedly affect the return probability of chicks, indicating that, once fledged, first-laid A-chicks have the same probability to return as second-laid B-chicks despite a much larger initial maternal investment in B-eggs in this species. This study demonstrates extraordinarily high juvenile survival probabilities and will help to understand the recent changes in the population dynamics of the Falkland Islands Southern Rockhopper Penguins.

The role of wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations on the population dynamics of black-backed woodpeckers in the black hills, South Dakota.

Wildfire and mountain pine beetle infestations are naturally occurring disturbances in western North American forests. Black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) are emblematic of the role these disturbances play in creating wildlife habitat, since they are strongly associated with recently-killed forests. However, management practices aimed at reducing the economic impact of natural disturbances can result in habitat loss for this species. Although black-backed woodpeckers occupy habitats created by wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations, the relative value of these habitats remains unknown. We studied habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probabilities and reproductive rates between April 2008 and August 2012 in the Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probability with Bayesian multi-state models and habitat-specific reproductive success with Bayesian nest survival models. We calculated asymptotic population growth rates from estimated demographic rates with matrix projection models. Adult and juvenile survival and nest success were highest in habitat created by summer wildfire, intermediate in MPB infestations, and lowest in habitat created by fall prescribed fire. Mean posterior distributions of population growth rates indicated growing populations in habitat created by summer wildfire and declining populations in fall prescribed fire and mountain pine beetle infestations. Our finding that population growth rates were positive only in habitat created by summer wildfire underscores the need to maintain early post-wildfire habitat across the landscape. The lower growth rates in fall prescribed fire and MPB infestations may be attributed to differences in predator communities and food resources relative to summer wildfire.

INBREEDING INFLUENCES WITHIN-BROOD HETEROZYGOSITY-FITNESS CORRELATIONS (HFCS) IN AN ISOLATED PASSERINE POPULATION

Molecular estimates of inbreeding may be made using genetic markers such as microsatellites, however the interpretation of resulting heterozygosity-fitness correlations (HFCs) with respect to inbreeding depression is not straightforward. We investigated the relationship between pedigree-determined inbreeding coefficients (f) and HFCs in a closely monitored, reintroduced population of Stewart Island robins (Petroica australis rakiura) on Ulva Island, New Zealand. Using a full sibling design, we focused on differences in juvenile survival associated specifically with individual sibling variation in standardized multilocus heterozygosity (SH) when expected f was identical. We found that within broods, siblings with higher SH at microsatellite loci experienced a higher probability of juvenile survival. This effect, however, was detected primarily within broods that experienced inbreeding or when inbreeding had occurred in their pedigree histories (i.e., at the parents' level). Thus we show, for the first time in a wild population, that the strength of an HFC is partially dependent on the presence of inbreeding events in the recent pedigree history. Our results illustrate the importance of realized effects of inbreeding on genetic variation and fitness and the value of full-sibling designs for the study of HFCs in the context of small, inbred populations.

Evaluating the Effects of Population Management on a Herbivore Grazing Conflict

Abundant herbivores can damage plants and so cause conflict with conservation, agricultural, and fisheries interests. Management of herbivore populations is a potential tool to alleviate such conflicts but may raise concerns about the economic and ethical costs of implementation, especially if the herbivores are ‘charismatic’ and popular with the public. Thus it is critical to evaluate the probability of achieving the desired ecological outcomes before proceeding to a field trial. Here we assessed the potential for population control to resolve a conflict of non-breeding swans grazing in river catchments. We used a mathematical model to evaluate the consequences of three population management strategies; (a) reductions in reproductive success, (b) removal of individuals, and (c) reduced reproductive success and removal of individuals combined. This model gave accurate projections of historical changes in population size for the two rivers for which data were available. Our model projected that the River Frome swan population would increase by 54%, from 257 to 397 individuals, over 17 years in the absence of population control. Removal of ≥60% of non-breeding individuals each year was projected to reduce the catchment population below the level for which grazing conflicts have been previously reported. Reducing reproductive success, even to 0 eggs per nest, failed to achieve the population reduction required. High adult and juvenile survival probabilities (>0.7) and immigration from outside of the catchment limited the effects of management on population size. Given the high, sustained effort required, population control does not represent an effective management option for preventing the grazing conflicts in river catchments. Our study highlights the need to evaluate the effects of different management techniques, both alone and in combination, prior to field trials. Population models, such as the one presented here, can provide a cost-effective and ethical means of such evaluations.

Erratum: Comparative survival and recovery of Ross's and lesser snow geese from Canada's central arctic

Traylor, Joshua J., Ray T. Alisauskas, Stuart M. Slattery, and Kiel L. Drake. 2012. Comparative survival and recovery of Ross's and lesser snow geese from Canada's central arctic. Journal of Wildlife Management 76:1135–1144. In this article, the x axis of Figure 6 was incorrectly labeled. The corrected Figure 6 is shown below. The publisher regrets the error. Figure 6. Relationship between juvenile survival probability for Ross's and snow geese marked north of the Karrak Lake goose colony, Nunavut, Canada, 1991–2008, in relation to mean nest initiation date. Survival estimates are model averages back-transformed from the logit scale.

Autumn survival inferred from wing age ratios: Wigeon juvenile survival half that of adults at best?

Measures of first-year autumn mortality rates are important parameters for understanding population dynamics, but have been hitherto unavailable for dabbling ducks in Europe, because most ducks are ringed in winter. We used the temporal change in the proportion of juveniles in wing samples from hunters in Finland, Denmark and UK, together with adult survival estimates from the literature, to estimate juvenile autumn survival in Wigeon Anas penelope. Wing samples from Finland and Denmark were collected during the late breeding (August–September) and migration (October–December) periods. The proportion of juveniles decreased from 80 % (females) and 74 % (males) in Finland to 63 and 45 % in Denmark, respectively. Combining the changes in the proportion of juveniles in the wing sample with adult Wigeon 3-month survival rates inferred from a Bayesian meta-analysis (89 % in males and 88 % in females), estimated autumn juvenile survival probability was 29 % for females and 22 % for males. The results show that autumn mortality is far higher in juvenile Wigeon than amongst adults, consistent with previous results in Teal Anas crecca, and may reflect a wider pattern in dabbling ducks. Such low survival rates are especially important in Wigeon given observed long-term declines in breeding productivity in this population.

From metamorphosis to maturity in complex life cycles: equal performance of different juvenile life history pathways

Performance in one stage of a complex life cycle may affect performance in the subsequent stage. Animals that start a new stage at a smaller size than conspecifics may either always remain smaller or they may be able to "catch up" through plasticity, usually elevated growth rates. We study how size at and date of metamorphosis affected subsequent performance in the terrestrial juvenile stage and lifetime fitness of spadefoot toads (Pelobates fuscus). We analyzed capture-recapture data of > 3000 individuals sampled during nine years with mark-recapture models to estimate first-year juvenile survival probabilities and age-specific first-time breeding probabilities of toads, followed by model selection to assess whether these probabilities were correlated with size at and date of metamorphosis. Males attained maturity after two years, whereas females reached maturity 2-4 years after metamorphosis. Age at maturity was weakly correlated with metamorphic traits. In both sexes, first-year juvenile survival depended positively on date of metamorphosis and, in males, also negatively on size at metamorphosis. In males, toads that metamorphosed early at a small size had the highest probability to reach maturity. However, because very few toadlets metamorphosed early, the vast majority of male metamorphs had a very similar probability to reach maturity. A matrix projection model constructed for females showed that different juvenile life history pathways resulted in similar lifetime fitness. We found that the effects of date of and size at metamorphosis on different juvenile traits cancelled each other out such that toads that were small or large at metamorphosis had equal performance. Because the costs and benefits of juvenile life history pathways may also depend on population fluctuations, ample phenotypic variation in life history traits may be maintained.

The influence of persistent individual differences and age at maturity on effective population size.

Ratios of effective populations size, N(e), to census population size, N, are used as a measure of genetic drift in populations. Several life-history parameters have been shown to affect these ratios, including mating system and age at sexual maturation. Using a stochastic matrix model, we examine how different levels of persistent individual differences in mating success among males may affect N(e)/N, and how this relates to generation time. Individual differences of this type are shown to cause a lower N(e)/N ratio than would be expected when mating is independent among seasons. Examining the way in which age at maturity affects N(e)/N, we find that both the direction and magnitude of the effect depends on the survival rate of juveniles in the population. In particular, when maturation is delayed, lowered juvenile survival causes higher levels of genetic drift. In addition, predicted shifts in N(e)/N with changing age at maturity are shown to be dependent on which of the commonly used definitions of census population size, N, is employed. Our results demonstrate that patterns of mating success, as well as juvenile survival probabilities, have substantial effects on rates of genetic drift.

Joint effects of inverse density-dependence and extreme environmental variation on the viability of a social bird species

Environmental stochasticity and density-dependence can have critical synergetic effects on population dynamics, especially when dealing with threatened species. In this study, we examine the effects of these interactions on the dynamics of a vulnerable bird species, the Dalmatian pelican (Pelicanus crispus). We conducted demographic analysis and population dynamics modelling of the Amvrakikos pelican population (western Greece) based on a 20-y dataset. Results indicated that annual juvenile survival probability is low (mean = 0.65) and varies according to both negative (regulation) and positive (Allee effect) density-dependent processes. In contrast, adult survival is relatively high (mean = 0.95) and less variable. Deterministic and stochastic population dynamics models based on means, inter-annual variances, and covariances between vital rates revealed that the population is increasing deterministically. Simulations of the extinction risk for the study population and also for various population sizes revealed that short-term extinction risk remains extremely low, even for very small populations of the species. However, when we considered the possibility of rare catastrophic events and their interactions with density-dependence patterns, the projected extinction risk increased dramatically, especially for small populations. Given that many European Dalmatian pelican populations are small, most of them could be at risk for local extinction. Our results illustrate the critical and general importance of considering interactions between all potential factors of extinction in population viability assessments.

Patterns of mortality for each life‐history stage in a population of the endangered New Zealand stitchbird

1. Using data from 396 breeding attempts over an 8-year period, we investigated age- and stage-specific survival rates and their modifying factors in a closed island population of the New Zealand stitchbird (or hihi, Notiomystis cincta Du Bus). 2. Survival probability generally increased over time; however, at each life-history transition, survival in the new stage started lower than at the end of the previous stage, creating a 'saw-tooth' function of age-related survival. 3. The probability of an egg hatching was low (0.73 +/- 0.01): most likely a consequence of genetic bottlenecks previously endured by this population. There was strong support for a positive relationship between hatching rate and the subsequent survival of the female parent, and hatching success declining for females > 4 years old. 4. Nestling survival probability increased as a function of brood size and days since hatching, and decreased relative to daily maximum ambient temperature and hatching date. Support for models including ambient temperature was greater than for other covariates, with the majority of this temperature-mediated survival effect being restricted to the early nestling stage. 5. Fledglings had low survival rates in the first two weeks after leaving the nest, with post-fledging survival related to the fledgling's mass. Two months after fledging, juvenile survival probability plateaued and remained relatively constant for the following autumn, winter and spring/summer breeding season. There was no effect of sex or season on adult survival probability. However, there was strong support for age-specific variation in adult survival, with survival likelihood increasing during the first four years before showing evidence of a senescence decline. 6. Within-stage survival increases were likely related to stage-specific selection pressures initially weeding out individuals of poorer phenotypes for the environment specific to each life-history stage. Such a mechanism explains the initial high mortality at life-history transitions; a well-adapted phenotype for one stage may not necessarily be so well adapted for subsequent stages. These patterns are not only valuable for examining life-history theory, but also for understanding the regulation of vital rates in an endangered species and providing a basis from which better population management models and harvesting regimes can be derived.

Projecting population trends of endangered amphibian species in the face of uncertainty: A pattern-oriented approach

Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide for the last three decades. Determining the risk of extinction is one of the major goals of amphibian conservation, yet few quantitative models have been developed for amphibian populations. Like most rare or threatened populations, there is a paucity of life history data available for most amphibian populations. Data on the critical juvenile life stage are particularly lacking. Pattern oriented modeling (POM) has been used successfully to estimate life history parameters indirectly when critical data lacking, but has not been applied to amphibian populations. We describe a spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic simulation model developed to project population dynamics of pond-breeding amphibian populations. We parameterized the model with life history and habitat data collected for the endangered Houston toad ( Bufo houstonensis), a species for which there is a high degree of uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. During model evaluation, we focused on explicitly reducing this uncertainty, evaluating 16 different versions of the model that represented the range of parametric uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. Following POM protocol, we compared simulation results to four population-level patterns observed in the field: population size, adult sex ratio, proportion of toads returning to their natal pond, and mean maximum distance moved. Based on these comparisons, we rejected 11 of the 16 model versions. Results of the remaining versions confirmed that population persistence depends heavily on juvenile survival, and further suggested that probability of juvenile survival is likely between 0.0075 and 0.015 (previous estimates ranged from 0.003 to 0.02), and that annual male survival is near 0.15 (previous estimates ranged up to 0.43). Thus, although the uncertainty associated with population projections for the Houston toad remains large, we were able, via the POM approach, to (1) narrow the range of plausible survival estimates, (2) calculate a first estimate of over-wintering metamorph survival, and (3) provide a set of alternative model versions that quantifies the current level of uncertainty associated with population projections. These results suggest that POM is particularly well suited for modeling amphibian systems, and other ecological systems characterized by low structural uncertainty and high parametric uncertainty.