June , July And August Research Articles

Change‐point alterations of extreme water levels and underlying causes in the Pearl River Delta, China

AbstractIn this paper, the Bayesian model and Lepage test were used to detect change point and to analyse associated statistical properties of high/low water levels in summer (June, July and August (JJA)) and winter (December, January and February (DJF)) months across the PRD (Pearl River Delta). The results indicate that: (1) two time intervals, that is 1979–1981 and 1988–1995, witness abrupt changes of SmH/SmL (summer mean high water level/summer mean low water level). The lower PRD is dominated by increased mean and coefficient of variation (Cv) of SmH. Increased mean but decreased Cv of SmL can be observed in the Mainstem Pearl River; (2) WmL (winter mean low water level) and WmH (winter mean high water level) of about 74% of the total stations have two change points occurred roughly during 1969–1971 and 1993–1995. First change points of WmH are mainly characterized by increased mean and Cv, but decreased mean and increased Cv of WmL can be observed across major parts of the PRD. The driving factors causing abrupt changes of water levels are various. Intensive human activities cannot be ignored, for example in‐channel dredging and reallocation of the streamflow within the river channels due to human‐induced topographical changes of river channel. Different responses of high/low water levels to externally influencing factors and interactions between influencing factors make the alterations of the water levels across the PRD more complicated. The findings of this paper will be helpful for the management of the PRD and human mitigation to natural hazards under the changing environment. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal temperature and precipitation hindcast ensembles for the southeastern USA

AbstractWe present results from a 15‐year 10‐member warm season (March–September) hindcast ensemble of maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation in southeast USA. The hindcasts are derived from the Florida State University/Center for Ocean‐Atmospheric Prediction Studies Global Spectral Model (FSU/COAPS GSM) and downscaled using both the FSU/COAPS Nested Regional Spectral Model (NRSM) and a statistical downscaling method based on stochastic weather generator techniques. We additionally consider statistical bias correction of the dynamical model output. Basic descriptive statistics indicate that the bias‐corrected and statistically downscaled data reduce the FSU/COAPS GSM bias considerably in terms of basic climatology. Statistics describing the daily precipitation process are improved by both downscaling techniques relative to the bias‐corrected GSM. Improvement in monthly and seasonal hindcasts relative to FSU/COAPS GSM is spatially and temporally varying. Precipitation hindcasts are generally less skillful than those for temperature, although useful precipitation predictability exists at many locations. Hindcast improvements due to downscaling are greatest over peninsular Florida. The smallest root mean square errors (RMSE) for temperature hindcasts are found in the southern part of the study region during the spring months of March, April and May (MAM) for maximum surface air temperature, and in the summer, June, July and August (JJA), for minimum surface air temperature. Overall, there is no indication that either downscaling method has a direct advantage over the other. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Space-borne observations link the tropical atlantic ozone maximum and paradox to lightning

Abstract. The potential enhancement of tropospheric column ozone values over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean on a seasonal basis by lightning is investigated using satellite derived ozone data, TRMM lightning data, ozonesonde data and NCEP reanalysis during 1998-2001. Our results show that the number of lightning flashes in Africa and South America reach a maximum during September, October and November (SON). The spatial patterns of winds in combination with lightning from West Africa, Central Africa and South America is likely responsible for enriching middle/upper troposphere ozone over the Tropical South Atlantic during SON. Moreover, lightning flashes are high in the hemisphere opposite to biomass burning during December, January, and February (DJF) and June, July and August (JJA). This pattern leads to an enrichment of ozone in the middle/upper troposphere in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics during DJF and the Northern Hemisphere Tropics during JJA. During JJA the largest numbers of lightning flashes are observed in West Africa, enriching tropospheric column ozone to the north of 5S in the absence of biomass burning. During DJF, lightning is concentrated in South America and Central Africa enriching tropospheric column ozone south of the Equator in the absence of biomass burning.

Local Meridional Circulation and Deserts

This paper investigates the dry climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts from the viewpoint of local meridional circulation with Xie and Arkin rainfall dada and NCAR I NCEP reanalysis data. Results show that there are very dry centers with annual rainfall less than 50 mm over these two deserts while the rainy seasons are very different. In the south part of Sahara desert center and Northwest China desert, over 70% rainfall takes place in June, July and August (JJA). While in the north part of Sahara, rainfall mainly concentrates in December, January and February (DJF). The local biosphere-radiation mechanism proposed by Charney cannot explain the climatology of such very dry centers. Neither can the monsoon-desert mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins do for the strongest descent center is much more northward than the driest center over Sahara in JJA. From the viewpoint of local meridional circulation, the dryness climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts is investigated and compared. It is shown that in DJF, descent of local meridional circulation dominates the two deserts and very dry climate is unavoidable although the relative wet season is weak over the northern part of Sahara due to Mediterranean climate. While in JJA, there is ascent over the two deserts especially over Northwest China. Such ascent can explain the rainy season in south part of Sahara and Northwest China deserts. However, it is the local meridional circulation that takes strong and dry northerly from higher latitudes. The northerly either takes little moisture to the centers or prevents deep and strong convection over the centers. Such local meridional circulation leads to the dry climatology over the two deserts.

The Energetics of Asian Summer Monsoon

— In this paper, we examine the large-scale balances of kinetic energy, vorticity, angular momentum, heat and moisture over the Asian summer monsoon region. The five year (1986–1990) uninitialized daily analyses for the summer season comprising June, July and August (JJA), produced at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) under the aegis of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) have been considered to carry out the study.¶The following features characterize the Asian summer monsoon domain. It acts as the source of kinetic energy as well as vorticity, and sink of heat and moisture. Kinetic energy and vorticity are produced in the monsoon region and transported horizontally. On the contrary, heat and moisture are transported into the monsoon region. The zonal and meridional components of adiabatic generation of kinetic energy contribute to the production of kinetic energy over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. The horizontal advection of relative vorticity is balanced by sub-grid scale generation. The angular momentum generated due to pressure torque (east-west pressure gradient) is balanced by the flux convergence of omega momentum. Further, the angular momentum budget delineates that flux convergence of relative momentum is necessary to maintain the surface westerlies against the friction. The horizontal convergence of heat and moisture facilitates enhancement of diabatic heating, and also leads to the formation of diabatic heat sources, which are crucial to sustain the summer monsoon circulation.

A Study on the Performance of the NCMRWF Analysis and Forecasting System During Asian Summer Monsoon: Thermodynamic Aspects

—The thermodynamic characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon are examined with a global analysis-forecast system. In this study, we investigated the large-scale balances of heat and moisture by making use of operational analyses as well as forecast fields for June, July and August (JJA), 1994. Apart from elucidating systematic errors in the temperature and moisture fields, the study expounds the influence of these errors on the large-scale budgets of heat and moisture over the monsoon region. The temperature forecasts of the model delineate predominant cooling in the middle and lower tropospheres over the monsoon region. Similarly, the moisture forecasts evince a drying tendency in the lower troposphere. However, certain sectors of moderate moistening exist over the peninsular India and adjoining oceanic sectors of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.¶The broad features of the large-scale heat and moisture budgets represented by the analysis/forecast fields indicate good agreement with the observed aspects of the summer monsoon circulation. The model forecasts fail to retain the analyzed atmospheric variability in terms of the mean circulation, which is indicated by underestimation of various terms of heat and moisture budgets with an increase in the forecast period. Further, the forecasts depict an anomalous diabatic cooling layer in the lower middle troposphere of the monsoon region which inhibits vertical transfer of heat and moisture from the mixed layer of the atmospheric boundary layer to the middle troposphere. In effect, the monsoon circulation is considerably weakened with an increase in the forecast period. The treatment of shallow convection and the use of interactive clouds in the model can reduce the cooling bias considerably.

Troposphere to stratosphere transport at low latitudes as studies using HALOE observations of water vapour 1992–1997

AbstractIn this paper we present observations of water vapour (version 18 retrievals) in the equatorial tropopause region made by the Halogen Occulatation Experiment (HALOE) instrument, which files on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. These data make an important new contribution to the observationl knowledge of this region, since water vapour here has largely been observed to date using in situ instruments, and the only global longitudinally‐resolving satellite observations to be reported are those from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II). Firstly, the HALOE water vapour climatology is presented. Comparison of HALOE and SAGE II climatologies shows considerable agreement. An exception is over Asia in June, July and August (JJA), where the HALOE fields show a distinct region of moist air (associated with convection due to the Asian summer monsoon), whereas no such feature was reported in the SAGE II observations. This suggests that HALOE is sensitive to water vapour variability near the tropopause over regions of strong convection. Secondly, the troposphere to stratosphere transport of air at low latitudes is investigated. Pressure/longitude sections near the equator show that dry air with water vapour mixing ratios of less than 2.4 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) enters the stratosphere in December, January and February, then travels upwards and polewards in the subsequent seasons. A more detailed examination of pressure/longitude sections indicates episodes when dry air also enters the equatorial stratosphere in March, April and May and JJA at times of strong convenction. There is also evidence of entry of air with higher water vapour mixing ratios, of between 3.6 and 4.0 p.p.m.v, into the stratosphere in September, October and November, chiefly at 10°N and 20°N. Further examination of the region of moist air over Asia in JJA (mentioned above) shows that there is clear cross‐isentropic upward transport in the 375–410 K region of unsaturated air. The HALOE water vapour data set reported here provides an important new insight into low latitude processes near the equatorial tropopause.

Seasonal Variations of the 40-50 Day Oscillation in the Tropics

Abstract Daily rawinsonde data from 19 near-equatorial stations are examined to learn more about annual variations of the 40–50 day oscillations. Lengths of the available time series range from 5 to 28 years. A technique is devised to isolate spectral and cross-spectral quantities as a function of season. It is determined that a variance of the zonal wind in a relatively broad band centered on 47-day periods generally exceeds that in adjacent lower and higher frequency bands by the largest amount during December January and February (DJF) and at stations in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans during all seasons. The coherence between lower-and upper-tropospheric zonal winds tends to be largest in the summer hemisphere for stations in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Upper tropospheric zonal and meridional winds are coherent and out of (in) phase at several stations there during DJF [June, July and August (JJA) These results. coupled with composited wind and outgoing longwave radiation data, lead u...

Indian summer monsoon and the east equatorial pacific sea surface temperature

Abstract A detailed examination has been made of the relationship between the space and time variations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the equatorial eastern‐Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in different seasons for the 108‐year period, 1871–1978. There is a strong inverse relationship between the two. The correlation coefficients between All‐India monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature anomaly for the concurrent season; June, July and August (JJA) and for the succeeding seasons; September, October and November (SON) and December, January and February (DJF) are consistently and highly significant. Even a random sample of 50 years gave values significant at the 0.1 percent level. The sliding window correlation analysis of 10‐, 20‐ and 30‐year widths indicates that the relationships between All‐India monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature anomaly for the concurrent JJA and the succeeding SON and DJF seasons exhibit stability and consistency in significance. For contiguous meteorological sub‐divisions west of longitude 80°E the relationship is highly significant for JJA and for succeeding SON and DJF seasons.