Journey Distance Research Articles

Estimation of direct energy consumption and CO2 emission by high speed rail, transrapid maglev and hyperloop passenger transport systems

This paper deals with estimation of direct energy consumption and related emissions of GHG exclusively, including CO2, by the High Speed Rail (HSR), Trans Rapid Maglev (TRM), and Hyperloop (HL) passenger transport systems. This includes developing the corresponding analytical models based on the mechanical energy and applying them according to the specified what-if operating scenarios. The analogous models are developed and applied to the Air Passenger Transport (APT) system for comparison purposes. The results of the application of the proposed models under given conditions have indicated that the average and total energy consumption and related emission of CO2 of the three systems have been generally sensitive, i.e. elastic to variations of the nonstop journey distance and the vehicle/train seating capacity. Their average values have decreased more than proportionally and total values in proportion with increasing of the nonstop journey distance. Both have decreased with increasing of the vehicle/train seating capacity per departure. In the case of supplying equivalent equally utilized transport capacities, the HSR and the TRM have had lower energy consumption and related emission of CO2 than the HL system. As well, the HSR, the TRM, and the HL have had lower energy consumption and related CO2 emission than the selected APT aircraft up to some ‘breaking’ journey distance under given what-if operating scenarios.

Customers’ selections between premium electric taxis and liquefied petroleum gas taxis

Reducing roadside emissions is a common challenge in metropolitan cities. In Hong Kong, conventional liquefied petroleum gas taxis are one of the main contributors to roadside emissions as they operate on the streets 24 h a day with a long daily driving mileage. Moreover, these taxis suffer from a severely poor service reputation. To enhance the environmental friendliness and service quality of the taxi industry, this study explores the market potential of operating premium electric taxis in the dispatching mode. A stated preference survey was conducted to 1410 taxi customers about their taxi-riding choices between premium electric taxis and conventional liquefied petroleum gas taxis. In total, 5640 observations were obtained and used to develop a series of binary logistic regression models with different model formulations for the determination of the significant factors influencing customers’ selections. The findings indicate that walk time to and wait time for taxis were the most critical concerns to the customers, and they were more willing to take premium taxis if their journey distance was longer and their desired improvement on taxi service quality was greater. The socio-demographic status of taxi customers also influences their choices. The associated policy implications are discussed for promoting taxis with better service quality and fewer roadside emissions. The findings provide some policy insights to other international cities that have a similar taxi market to Hong Kong.

Aerodynamic and energy‐efficiency‐based assessment of plasma actuator's position on a NACA0015 airfoil

AbstractIn recent years, there has been an increase in the number of research papers on plasma and its use in active flow control applications. The main objective of this study is to assess the plasma actuator's position on a NACA0015 airfoil in terms of aerodynamic forces. In addition, optimization of the plasma actuator's position and its configuration are studied in order to identify the optimum configuration for improvement in lift coefficient. The experiments are conducted in an open‐suction‐type wind tunnel at Reynolds numbers of 48,000, 75,000, and 100,000. The plasma actuators are mounted on various positions (x/C) starting from the leading edge to trailing edge of the airfoil. The experimental results on aerodynamic force measurement are presented to illustrate the increasing lift effect of the generated plasma. It is also shown that the plasma actuators used as an active flow control device appears to shift the stall angle of the airfoil. The results of the experimental study suggest that the energy efficiency of airborne systems can be improved with the use of plasma actuators due to its increasing lift coefficient effect. This result becomes a vital finding considering that the same flight can be achieved with less fuel and less amount of environmental pollution for the same distance of journey. It is also worth mentioning that increasing lift effect would mean taking off from a shorter runway or allowing the airborne vehicle with the ability to fly with additional payload.

Pre-slaughtering factors related to bruises on cattle carcasses in the micro-region of Araguaína, Tocantins, Brazil

The objective of the study was to evaluate the main pre-slaughter factors contributing to bruising on cattle carcasses in the micro-region of Araguaína, Tocantins. The experiment was conducted from January to June using data from 414 cattle heads of different breeds, body weight and sex. Factors related to bruises in cattle were evaluated from the farms to a federally inspected slaughterhouse in Araguaína. The independent variables were road type, journey distance (paved and mixed roads), journey time (paved and mixed roads), driver’s experience, prevalence of horns, sex class, falls during unloading, use of devices during unloading, truck maintenance conditions, presence of loose and/or protruding boards in the truck, condition of the truck floor, use of electric cattle prods during handling, presence of protruding nails and/or screws in the truck, arrangement of boards in the crowding pen, presence of broken boards in the cattle handling facility, angle of loading ramp, presence of protruding nails and/or screws in the cattle handling facility, and design and material of the cattle handling facility. The frequency of bruises was associated with the independent variables using contingency tables by the chi-square test (?2) to measure the association between variables. The variables road type, journey distance (mixed roads), journey time (mixed roads), animal behavior, falls during unloading, truck maintenance conditions, presence of loose and/or protruding boards in the truck, condition of the truck floor, arrangement of boards in the crowding pen, and presence of broken boards in the cattle handling facility had a significant effect on carcass bruising. Therefore, several pre-slaughter factors contribute to bruising on cattle carcasses.

Transporters knowledge toward preslaughter logistic chain and occupational risks in Mexico: An integrative view with implications on sheep welfare

Using a survey, we aimed to investigate Mexican transporter knowledge toward preslaughter logistic chain and occupational risks and secondly, to quantify how transport can affect sheep welfare. We used univariate and multivariate statistics based on cluster analysis. According to a cluster analysis, the incidence of risks varied with the association between transport, preslaughter logistic operations and journey distance. Cluster 1 included long-distance journeys (LDJ), cluster 2 medium-distance journeys (MDJ) and cluster 3 short-distance journeys (SDJ). In MDJ, the collection points were quite varied compared with the LDJ and SDJ groups, which were always in the north or central regions, respectively. The LDJ group used pot-belly trailers or 10 ton (t) to 16 t lorries, the MDJ group preferably used 10 t to 16 t lorries, and group SDJ used 3.5 lorries or pickups. Most of the accidents were grouped in SDJ, which also included transporters who smoked most and drank coffee as a countermeasure for sleepiness. The MDJ group loaded more animals at the farm, whereas the other two groups mostly collected animals at assembly centers or auction markets. In addition, night journeys, aversive and violent handling (shouting and the use of electric prod), loading times greater than 2.5 hours can also increase live weight losses and mortality rates. Journeys greater than 8 hours imply a greater probability of suffering an accident on the road. It is critical for everyone engaged in welfare promotion along the preslaughter logistic chain to recognize the links between workers well-being, animal welfare, and the environment, and to know that the way sheep are transported can have broader One-Welfare implications.

Energy consumption and pollutant exposure estimation for cyclist routes in urban areas

There is a growing effort on policies and projects to support a modal shift towards active transport modes, namely the bicycle. The selection of preferred routes, and consequently the implementation of cycle routes, are usually based on distance, time and safety, not on exposure to pollutants. This paper presents a methodology to compare alternative routes, considering not only journey distance and time but also cyclist effort and exposure to pollutants mainly from traffic emissions (that also relates to the cyclist effort). The main purpose of this work is to develop a simple tool that allows municipalities and end users to estimate the effort required and the exposure to pollutants on potential routes, therefore supporting planning and design of infrastructure. The concept of cyclist specific effort (CSE) is developed in this work. The cyclist's highest specific ventilation rates are estimated from a direct relationship with the CSE, based on the specific characteristics of the users and on a calibrated relationship in the lab. A case study is presented for the route that connects two campuses of the University of Coimbra, Portugal (≈5 km). Results show that some alternative routes, which are generally not considered due to the increment of distance and/or time, can significantly reduce exposure to pollutants while requiring the same or even less effort. A reduction of approximately one third in the inhalation of pollutants from traffic emissions (33.1%) is possible by choosing a slightly longer route (6%) and requires a similar total effort.

Autumn Migratory Patterns of North-West Russian Ospreys Pandion Haliaetus

we studied autumn migratory patterns of four north-west Russian Ospreys Pandion haliaetus from 2015 to 2017. No previous information has been published on migration of Russian Ospreys. the mean start date was August 26th and the mean journey distance was 6258km. Ospreys reached their final destinations (in eastern, central or south-western Africa) via Suez and Cyprus. we identified several stop-over areas along these routes. Ospreys mostly showed an intensive off-route displacement during their autumn migration, suggesting that they simultaneously explore areas while travelling. we observed high variability within individuals, which suggests that Ospreys continuously adjust their migratory behaviour according to different environmental cues and internal factors. however, the low repeatability may also suggest that each Osprey is consistent but that all of them change their behaviour in the same way. this is important because it means that the environment encountered along the migratory route may trigger the same response by all individuals.–Babushkin, M., kuznetsov, A. & Delgado, Ma.M. (2019). Autumn migratory patterns of north-west Russian ospreys Pandion haliaetus.Ardeola, 66: 119-128.

Causes of bruising in carcasses of beef cattle during farm, transport, and slaughterhouse handling in Brazil.

This study aimed to assess preslaughter factors responsible for the occurrence of bruises to front, rib, loin, hip, and round sites of cattle carcasses. Data from the slaughter of 148 loads of cattle were assessed, totaling 4,611 carcasses. Evaluated bruising factor variables were animal gender, journey distance (km), vehicle type (m²), journey time (hours), load density (kg/m2 ), handling and facilities conditions (optimal, acceptable, and unacceptable), and unloading waiting time (min). Gender had the strongest influence on carcass bruising, being the first variable to enter in the majority of models related to the carcass sites. Female carcasses displayed higher bruising in all sites. Densities above 401kg/m² caused more bruising. With the exception of the loin, unacceptable, and acceptable conditions assigned to farm facilities and handling resulted in higher average bruising. Articulated vehicles with a greater load capacity were more likely to cause bruising. The effects of variables causing bruises act differently in the various carcass sites. In this sense, the results of this study suggested possible management practices for specific problems during the preslaughter period to minimize losses by bruising to different carcass sites.

Dynamic charging algorithm for energy storage devices at high rate EV chargers for integration of solar energy

High rate electric vehicle chargers (HREVCs) are becoming an important part of transportation infrastructure. This is due to their ability to enable journey distances which are longer than the range of the electric vehicle (EV). Often, HREVCs need a high power grid connection which can be very expensive, or impossible. HREVCs which are powered by co-located renewable energy are an effective way of reducing the necessary grid capacity for installation when used with an Off-vehicle energy store (OVES). The control strategy for charging this OVES from the grid is addressed in this paper by comparing static and dynamic charging powers. It was found that the dynamic charge pattern reduced both imports and exports to the HREVC over one year over the static grid charge case. Thereby showing that using the dynamic charge strategy enables HREVCs to be installed on a smaller grid connection and use less grid power.

Hydroisomerization of n-dodecane over bi-porous Pt-containing bifunctional catalysts: Effects of alkene intermediates’ journey distances within the zeolite micropores

In this study, three micro/mesoporous composites with MCM-41 materials overgrowing on external surfaces of Y zeolite crystals were prepared. For the three composites, average crystal particle sizes of their zeolite components differed from each other, resulting from the different levels of alkali-treatments to the original Y zeolite before the composite synthesis. Hydroisomerization of n-dodecane (n-C12) was used to evaluate the catalytic performances of bi-porous Pt-loaded composite catalysts with similar metal-acid balances but different average zeolite crystal particle sizes, which leaded to the distinction of alkene intermediates’ journey distances inside the acid-rich micropores between two accessible Pt metal sites on three catalysts. The number of protonic sites encountered by alkene intermediates along their diffusion paths, determining the skeletal transformation frequencies, was considered to be proportional to the above-mentioned intermediates’ journey distances. Results showed that bifunctional catalysts with smaller average zeolite crystal particle sizes outperformed the catalyst containing the original Y zeolite in the regard of isomerization selectivity. This implied the significant effect of intermediates’ journey distances within the microporous arrays between two Pt sites on bifunctional behaviors of catalysts. It can be confirmed that shortening this distance within certain limits indeed contributed to inhibiting secondary reactions, including the skeletal multiple branching and cracking.

A Stochastic Method for Prediction of the Power Demand at High Rate EV Chargers

High rate (<100 kW) electric vehicle chargers (HREVCs) are crucial for achieving the benefits of reduced CO2 and particulate emissions promised by EVs by enabling journey distances greater than the range of the vehicle. A method for predicting the expected demand pattern at these HREVCs is presented in this paper. This is critical to plan a network of chargers. This novel method uses the freely available traffic flow data and travel patterns extracted from the OpenStreetMap combined with a novel EV battery capacity prediction method, to find future HREVC usage patterns in the U.K. and their dependence on location and EV characteristics. This planning method can be replicated to find HREVC power demand for any location on the strategic road network in the U.K. and can be used in the analysis of the role of high rate EV charging in the wider energy system.

Assessing the potential for carbon emissions savings from replacing short car trips with walking and cycling using a mixed GPS-travel diary approach

There is a growing recognition of the role that walking and cycling can make in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by substituting motorized travel, particularly on short trips. However, there is a lack of evidence at the micro level on the realistic, empirically derived potential of walking and cycling to displace motorized travel and thus reduce GHG emissions. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential for GHG emissions savings from replacing short car trips with walking and cycling and the extent to which high quality infrastructure for walking and cycling may influence day-to-day travel decisions, change the spatial and temporal nature of local journeys and impact on overall GHG emissions from motorised travel.To achieve this aim this study conducted an in-depth observational study of a purposively selected cohort of 50 residents in Cardiff, Wales. Using a mixed-method approach detailed quantitative and qualitative data were collected for each participant using personal Global Position System (GPS) devices, 7-day travel diaries and contextual interviews over two seasonally matching 7-day time periods in 2011 and 2012. GHG emissions for motorized travel modes were derived using journey distance, vehicle technology details and average speeds obtained from the GPS data. The spatial and contextual data provided new insights into the complexities of walking behaviour and factors influencing cycling for everyday travel or recreation, including route choice decisions, activity destinations and the role of the new infrastructure to enable change.We found significant potential of active travel to substitute short car trips, with sizeable impacts on carbon emissions from personal travel. Half of all car trips were less than 3 miles long. Taking into account individual travel patterns and constraints, walking or cycling could realistically substitute for 41% of short car trips, saving nearly 5% of CO2e emissions from car travel. This was on top of 5% of ‘avoided’ emissions from cars due to existing walking and cycling. The evolving high quality walking and cycling infrastructure in the case study area was unlikely to promote a significant reduction in carbon emissions from (displaced) car journeys on its own.The study contributes to the debate on how to achieve stringent low carbon targets in urban transport. The combination of methods for data collection developed and employed in this study also helps to inform future research on the wider environmental impacts of active travel, including ‘co-benefits’ of improved air quality, reduced noise and reduced fossil fuel use.

Effects of Ginsenoside Rg3 on fatigue resistance and SIRT1 in aged rats

BackgroundGinsenoside Rg3 (Rg3) is one of the key components of a frequently used herbal tonic panax ginseng for fatigue treatment. However, the molecular mechanisms of Rg3 on anti-fatigue effects have not been completely understood yet. Methods and materialsWe built a postoperative fatigue syndrome (POFS) model and tried to elucidate the molecular mechanisms responsible for anti-fatigue effects of Rg3. 160 aged male rats were randomly divided into four groups (n = 40/group): normal group, Rg3-treated normal group (Rg3 group), postoperative fatigue syndrome model group (POFS group) and Rg3-treated postoperative fatigue syndrome model group (POFS + Rg3 group). The open field test (OFT) was used to assess general activity and exploratory behavior of rats in different groups. We then analyzed total cholesterol (TC), serum triglyceride (TG) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in the blood, as well as superoxide dismutase (SOD), malondialdehyde (MDA), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator-1α (PGC-1α) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PEPCK) mRNA expression in skeletal muscles of rats. We also detected the influence of Rg3 on silent information regulator of transcription 1 (sirtuin1, SIRT1) activity and protein 53 (p53) transcriptional activity in vitro. ResultsRg3 significantly increased the journey distance and rearing frequency, while slowed down the rest time. The serum concentrations of TC, TG and LDH were all up-regulated by Rg3. Meanwhile, Rg3 increased concentrations of SOD, but also decreased MDA release out of skeletal muscles. The mRNA expressions of PGC-1α and PEPCK were also enhanced by Rg3. Besides, Rg3 could activate SIRT1 and suppress p53 transcriptional activity in the biological process. Discussion and ConclusionRg3 could improve exercise performance and resist fatigue possibly through elevating SIRT1 deacetylase activity.

Is transport poverty socially or environmentally driven? Comparing the travel behaviours of two low-income populations living in central and peripheral locations in the same city

The paper presents a study to explore the relationship between travel poverty and social disadvantage at the local geographical level. The main aim of the research was to identify the extent to which the revealed travel behavioural outcomes of the study participants are due to personal social constraints or environmental conditions in their residential locations. Specifically, we sought to identify if the greater access to local amenities and public transport services of inner city residents led to an increase in their daily travel activities when compared with their urban peripheral counterparts. The research analysed data from a personal travel survey and one-day travel diary with 502 adults aged between 16 and 65 years in two different deprived areas in Merseyside, North West England. Our analysis is somewhat hampered by the small sample size, but the modelled results suggest that more trips, and longer journey distances do not necessarily imply greater social inclusion. The geographically weighted regression models (GWR) highlighted that the physical location of where people live within the city is more influential on their trip-making patterns than social determinants such as household income, age, gender, and/or employment status. Street connectivity, the level of bus services and neighbourhood safety were all particularly significant for determining spatial variations in the daily trips that were undertaken, with more trips being undertaken where there was a greater density of street nodes, bus stops and where people felt safer at night. This highlights the need for local transport and urban policymakers to carefully consider and target these micro-scale factors when attempting to introduce transport interventions to reduce social exclusion amongst low-income urban populations.

Assessing the Influence of Prior on Subsequent Street Robbery Location Choices: A Case Study in ZG City, China

The literature shows that offenders’ subsequent crime location choices are affected by their prior crime location choices. However, the published studies have focused on the influence of time and place of a previous crime, without testing the impact of whether the offender was arrested during the act of the prior crime. On the basis of the literature, this study further examines the influence of the prior robbery experiences on the subsequent street robbery location choices, by testing explicit hypotheses on how the time, place, and being arrested in the act of previous robberies affect a robber’s subsequent decisions of where to commit robberies. The data set used in this study includes 1262 detected robberies committed by 527 street robbers from the ZG City Public Security Bureau in China. Results of a mixed logit model demonstrate that prior street robbery experiences have a strong effect on subsequent street robbery location choices. A shorter time interval and less possibility of being arrested in the act of a prior street robbery significantly increase the likelihood of a robber returning to the previous location. However, the impact of distance of journey to prior crime location is not statistically significant.

Impact of Distance on Mode of Active Commuting in Chilean Children and Adolescents.

Active commuting could contribute to increasing physical activity. The objective of this study was to characterise patterns of active commuting to and from schools in children and adolescents in Chile. A total of 453 Chilean children and adolescents aged between 10 and 18 years were included in this study. Data regarding modes of commuting and commuting distance was collected using a validated questionnaire. Commuting mode was classified as active commuting (walking and/or cycling) or non-active commuting (car, motorcycle and/or bus). Commuting distance expressed in kilometres was categorised into six subgroups (0 to 0.5, 0.6 to 1, 1.1 to 2, 2.1 to 3, 3.1 to 5 and >5 km). Car commuting was the main mode for children (to school 64.9%; from school 51.2%) and adolescents (to school 50.2%; from school 24.7%). Whereas public bus commuting was the main transport used by adolescents to return from school. Only 11.0% and 24.8% of children and adolescents, respectively, walk to school. The proportion of children and adolescents who engage in active commuting was lower in those covering longer distances compared to a short distance. Adolescents walked to and from school more frequently than children. These findings show that non-active commuting was the most common mode of transport and that journey distances may influence commuting modes in children and adolescents.

Population levels of, and inequalities in, active travel: A national, cross-sectional study of adults in Scotland.

This study aimed to describe active travel (walking or cycling) in Scotland and explore potential demographic, geographic, and socio-economic inequalities in active travel. We extracted data for the period 2012–13 (39,585 journey stages) from the Scottish Household Survey. Survey travel diaries recorded all journeys made on the previous day by sampled individuals aged 16 + living within Scotland, and the stages within each journey. Descriptive statistics were calculated for journey stages, mode, purpose and distance. Logistic regression models were fitted to examine the relationship between the likelihood of a journey stage being active, age, sex, area deprivation and urban/rural classification. A quarter of all journey stages were walked or cycled (26%, n: 10,280/39,585); 96% of these were walked. Those living in the least deprived areas travelled a greater average distance per active journey stage than those in the most deprived. The likelihood of an active journey stage was higher for those living in the most deprived areas than for those in the least deprived (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.04–1.41) and for those in younger compared to older age groups (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.34–0.58). In conclusion, socio-economic inequalities in active travel were identified, but – contrary to the trends for many health-beneficial behaviours – with a greater likelihood of active travel in more deprived areas. This indicates a potential contribution to protecting and improving health for those whose health status tends to be worse. Walking was the most common mode of active travel, and should be promoted as much as cycling.

A comparison of car driving, public transport and cycling experiences in three European cities

Private car use in large cities causes congestion and pollution, and should be reduced. Previous research has shown that private cars are preferred over public transport, but it is not known whether that preference holds in large cities that attenuate the usual benefits of car travel. The small body of research comparing cycling with car driving has found a preference for cycling, but it is not clear what that preference is based on, nor its generalizability, particularly beyond those who already cycle frequently. The current study, which was undertaken as part of the EU-funded project, SUPERHUB (SUstainable and PERsuasive Human Users moBility in future cities), compares liking and experiences of car driving, public transport and cycling in three European cities: Barcelona, Helsinki and Milan. Cycling was liked significantly more than car driving and public transport, and was rated significantly more positively than or equivalent to cars on many attributes, including flexibility and reliability, indicating an important role for cycling in the reduction of urban car use. Public transport was rated significantly less positively than car driving for some attributes (e.g. flexibility, reliability) but more positively for others (e.g. value for money, safety), demonstrating that in large cities, the usual advantages of car driving over public transport are considerably attenuated. Almost all these findings were replicated across all three cities, suggesting that they can be generalised. Most city dwellers already use more than one mode regularly, which may support mode change campaigns. In particular, a substantial proportion of car driver commuters already enjoyed cycling on a regular basis, suggesting the potential for mode switching, via multimodality to overcome the obstacle of journey distance.

A Novel Approach for Serial Crime Detection with the Consideration of Class Imbalance Problem

Objective: The main objective of this research is to reduce the burden of crime investigators by identifying the series of crimes happening at different places. And also, this work aims to reduce the investigation time by grouping similar crimes happened in different places based on its behavior with the consideration of the class imbalance problem. Methods: In this research, Majority Weighted Class Oversampling (MWCS) method is introduced which overcomes the problem of class imbalance problem. It is introduced to handle class imbalance problem by identifying the hard to learn information which is named as minority class samples from the major class samples. And also in this work, the Incremental Clustering (IC) is introduced which can handle the insertion and deletion operations where the existing methodology called graph cut clustering algorithm cant handle these problems. The proposed methodologies deal with the class imbalance problems effectively and also the modification processes over the partitioned graphs are supported well than the existing researches. Results: The methods used in this work namely MWCS and IC are used to detect the series of crimes by identifying the similarity relationship exists among the crimes happened in different places. The experimental tests conducted were proves that the proposed methodology can leads to well detection of serial residential crimes than the existing methodologies. The experimental results of this work prove that the proposed methodology is improved in terms of all performance metrics called jaccard index, mantel index and the journey distance time. Conclusion: The findings demonstrate that serial residential crimes are identified by clustering them effectively using the methodologies called MWCs and IC and it has high possibility of detection of crimes than the existing methodology.

State of Charge Management for Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles With Uncertain Trip Information

Efficient state of charge management of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) differs from their nonplug-in counterparts through the utilization of a charge depleting (CD) mode of operation. Several studies have shown that a blended mode of CD holds fuel economy advantages over a CD and charge sustaining (CS) combination, however, these approaches assume knowledge of the total journey distance. Here, this assumption is relaxed and the state of charge trajectory was recalculated online using a weaker assumption that only a probability distribution accumulated over past trips is available. The importance of other contributing factors to the state of charge profile such as vehicle velocity and altitude is also assessed. Simulation results on a prototype plug-in hybrid are presented with an adaptive equivalent consumption minimization strategy (ECMS) used by the powertrain management to track the proposed state of charge trajectory. The financial and environmental benefits of the proposed approach relative to other state of charge management strategies are then calculated over a number of different cycles and conditions.