Jordan River Basin Research Articles

Assessing Water Security in the Jordan River Basin: Temporal Changes for Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Land Cover

Assessing Water Security in the Jordan River Basin: Temporal Changes for Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Land Cover

A new methodological approach for analysing river basins landscape changes

Abstract Research indicates that the Jordan River Basin area is an area where serious environmental and cultural changes occur. This paper illustrates a new methodological approach to developing a structural framework to study river basins‘ cultural and landscape changes. The aim of the proposed framework is to elaborate and overlap the natural and cultural driving forces that influence the landscape and to understand the relationship between them. The study consists of four stages: 1. setting specific objectives coinciding with the study area conditions and specifications; 2. defining a specific technique to determine the selected time frame; 3. defining the factors of each driving force and evaluating their correspondence with the study objectives, and finally; 4. building matrixes of intersections combining the natural force, the cultural force, and the overlapping between both, and adopting specific methodological techniques and tools to measure the outcome of each intersection. The paper presents a case study of the application of the proposed framework in the Jordan River Basin. The research results demonstrate the usefulness of the developed framework in understanding the overlapping between the landscape driving forces (natural and cultural) as well as achieving the goals of the related research. This new approach can facilitate a better understanding of landscape change and help researchers and planners identify and address the key issues related to sustainable landscape management by developing more effective policies and management strategies.

A Securitization-Perspective Analysis of Water Disputes in the Jordan River Basin

A Securitization-Perspective Analysis of Water Disputes in the Jordan River Basin

Basin Management under Conditions of Scarcity: The Transformation of the Jordan River Basin from Regional Water Supplier to Regional Water Importer

The Jordan River system is one of the most iconic and most contested river systems in the world. The once “mighty Jordan”, which has served as the primary source of water for populations in several countries, is currently a severely denuded river system, with only a fraction of its historic flow. Several initiatives, however, aim to restore some of the basin’s flows. This paper will provide a historical overview and analysis of the trajectory of the Jordan River system from being a primary supplier of water to a desiccated shadow of its former glory. It highlights the critical role international borders played in dividing control over the basin, resulting in different types and levels of water scarcity experienced by each of the basin’s riparians, each of whom has implemented different strategies to cope with such scarcity. The paper then presents several plans for large-scale interbasin transfers involving desalinated water initiated by basin riparians in attempts to deal with water scarcity and highlights how these planned initiatives are set to transform the basin from a regional supplier of water to a net importer.

No risk of international water wars: The case of the Jordan River Basin

AbstractDespite warnings from scholars and the media about water wars, the case of the Jordan River basin indicates that no wars over transboundary waters will occur in that location or elsewhere. Water will, nonetheless, increase as a source of concern for human welfare because of rising global temperature and climate change. However, several means exist that are more cost‐effective for mitigating water stress than launching war over shared water resources. Alternative means to obtain water (i.e., desalination of saltwater, reuse of treated waste water, and import of virtual water, not least in combination with efficient water governance and water management) cost less than waging wars to secure water sources. Because of constant scientific and technological achievements, the cost of these alternative methods will decrease, and the hindrances to possible water wars will increase. Nevertheless, water will not be a promoter of genuine cooperation as long as water politics is based on geopolitical reasoning. The case of the Jordan River basin indicates that hydro‐cooperation is sometimes used as a tool of dominance, implying that not all types of cooperation are positive.

Between the battles of Tel Hai and Samakh: Britain’s security policy in north-east Palestine in the Spring of 1920

ABSTRACT This article considers the British response to the Tel Hai affair, within the wider setting of British security policy in north-east Palestine. It sheds light on lesser-known aspects of British policy in the period such as the extensive use of Indian forces, the development of the region’s transport infrastructure, and the British military administration’s general concern about the threat of an Arab invasion across the Jordan river basin. Turning attention to the largely forgotten battle between British and Arab forces at Samakh in late April 1920, the article argues that this was the decisive military engagement of the period in Palestine.

Aproximación a la gobernanza de las cuencas transfronterizas del Líbano y su geopolítica

El objetivo del presente artículo es analizar las cuencas transfronterizas entre la República del Líbano y los países ribereños, considerando aspectos de cooperación y conflicto, geopolíticos de la región árabe, así como gobernanza. Esto se complementa con la propuesta del paradigma de la Gestión Integrada de Recursos Hídricos (GIRH). Tradicionalmente, la cuestión de recursos hídricos compartidos en la región árabe ha estado altamente politizada, así como las negociaciones de alto nivel entre gobiernos han sido críticas. Al mismo tiempo, esto genera preocupación sobre la justicia y la seguridad hídrica. La atención ha estado centrada en disputas de largo recorrido surgidas de la dependencia árabe en recursos hídricos superficiales originados (o controlados por) países no árabes. El agua es uno de los recursos más preciados en Líbano, como en todo el mundo, en especial si se consideran los actuales y futuros escenarios de cambio climático. La crisis humanitaria de 1,5 millones de refugiados sirios en territorio libanés presiona en mayor medidasobre los servicios de agua y sobre los recursos; si bien dicha crisis hídrica antecede a la llegada de dichos refugiados y está marcada por la propia situación geopolítica. El agua disponible discurre por ríos, lagos, embalses y aguas subterráneas. Los recursos hídricos de este país se encuentran bajo estrés debido a distintos factores: prácticas de manejo no sostenibles, aumento de la demanda desde todos los sectores, contaminación y gobernanza inefectiva (casi ausente) del agua. El Líbano comparte las siguientes cuencas con países ribereños: el río Jordán, el río Orontes y el río Nahr Al Kabir. En lo que respecta a agua subterránea, la cadena montañosa de Anti-Líbano está ubicada en la frontera con Siria. La promoción de la cooperación es crucial para el manejo de los recursos hídricos compartidos en esta región. En este sentido, una acción más cooperativa y un diálogo constructivo son necesarios para gestionar estos recursos compartidos, considerando la gobernanza del agua, los principios de la hidrodiplomacia y la GIRH. Las preguntas que guían este estudio son conocer qué cuencas hídricas comparte el Líbano, cuáles son las características de las mismas, y si existen acuerdos internacionales que regulen su uso y aprovechamiento conjunto. En cuanto a la metodología utilizada, la siguiente investigación se basa en información de fuentes primarias y secundarias (investigaciones académicas, prensa especializada, estadísticas, entre otras). El análisis de datos es cualitativo y documental. Este artículo comienza con una introducción a la administración del agua en los países árabes. A continuación, se proponen bases teóricas para el estudio de cuencas transfronterizas. Como aporte al marco teórico, se desarrollan los principios sobre cursos de agua compartidos en el Derecho Internacional. A continuación, se presentan las cuencas transfronterizas del país de origen fenicio. Finalmente, se proponen las conclusiones del estudio.

Energizing Mid–East water diplomacy: The potential for regional water–energy exchanges

ABSTRACT This article presents a nongovernmental initiative to address asymmetric hydropolitical relations in the Jordan River basin through issue linkage. The initiative would develop desalination capacity along the Mediterranean to supply water to Jordan, with Jordan generating and distributing solar energy to Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Such a project could provide a range of economic, environmental and geopolitical benefits to the parties involved, though it would also increase national dependencies on critical resources, which may be a serious impediment to adoption. Still, such mutual dependencies may be preferable to the current unilateral and asymmetric relations.

Validating Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections for Mountainous Watersheds Using Historical Runoff Data Coupled with the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM)

The performance of dynamically downscaled climate fields with respect to observed historical stream runoff has been assessed at basin scale using a physically distributed hydrologic model (DHSVM). The dynamically downscaled climate fields were generated by running the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 4-km horizontal resolution with boundary conditions derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Six hydrologic models were developed using DHSVM for six mountainous tributary watersheds of the Jordan River basin at hourly time steps and 30-m spatial resolution. The size of the watersheds varies from 19 km2 to 130 km2. The models were calibrated for a 6-year period from water year (WY) 1999–2004, using the observed meteorological data from the nearby Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites of the Natural Resources Conservation Services (NRCS). Calibration results showed a very good fit between simulated and observed streamflow with an average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.77, and good to very good fits in terms of other statistical parameters like percent bias (PBIAS) and coefficient of determination (R2). A 9-year period (WY 2001–2009) was selected as the historical baseline, and stream discharges for this period were simulated using dynamically downscaled climate fields as input to the calibrated hydrologic models. Historical baseline results showed a satisfactory fit of simulated and observed streamflow with an average NSE greater than 0.45 and a coefficient of determination above 0.50. Using volumetric analysis, it has been found that the total volume of water simulated using downscaled climate projections for the entire historical baseline period for all six watersheds is 4% less than the observed amount representing a very good estimation in terms of percent error volume (PEV). However, in the case of individual watersheds, analysis of total annual water volumes showed that estimated total annual water volumes were higher than the observed for Big Cottonwood, City Creek, Millcreek and lower than the observed total annual volume of water for Little Cottonwood, Red Butte Creek, and Parleys Littledell, demonstrating similar characteristics obtained from the calibration results. Seasonal analysis showed that the models can capture the flow volume observed for Big Cottonwood, City Creek and Red Butte Creek during the peak season, and the models can capture the flow volume observed for all the watershed satisfactorily except Big Cottonwood during the dry season. Study results indicated that the dynamically downscaled climate projections used in this study performed satisfactorily in terms of stream runoff, total flow volume, and seasonal flow analyses based on different statistical tests, and can satisfactorily capture flow patterns and flow volume for most of the watersheds considering the uncertainties associated with the study.

THE FALSE PROMISE OF COOPERATION IN THE JORDAN RIVER: STATE POLICIES AND DETERMINANTS

The study examines the false promise of cooperation in the Jordan River basin through the prism of state policies and determinants. The study is underpinned by the significance of pivotal riparian states. Based on their preeminence in determining the course of cooperation, the study considers Israel, Jordan and Palestine as pivotal riparian states. In terms of research methodology, qualitative approach was used. The study identified that domestic politics, regional dynamics and international water regimes are major determinant factors making cooperation to be a fantasy. Israel’s doctrine of exceptionalism both in the sense of statehood and government type and the reciprocated denial of co-basin states in this regard are domestic political factors that impede the course cooperative events. Israel’s geopolitical calculations via territorial expansion alongside of the Jordan River affect the cooperative milieu. The mere existence of water regimes either in the form of legal agreements or institutional attempts, does not bring effective cooperation. The finding of study shows that, domestic politics, regional dynamics and international water regimes are indeed determinant factors for the cooperative and conflictive nature of water sharing in the basin. The level of their impact however is neither equal nor constant. Importantly, these three factors affect and condition one another.

Numerical representation of rainfall field in basins of the Upper Jordan River and of the Yarmouk River

A non-linear complex rain–elevation regression model is proposed for the numerical representation of rainfall field in an area with complex plain/mountainous topography, non-uniform distribution of rain gauge network and scarce data of observations. The model is applied to basins of the Upper Jordan River (of the Lake Kinneret) and of the Yarmouk River in which the major flow of the Jordan River is formed. The model is implemented in two steps: (1) study of the rainfall field, based on the average long-term (climatic) data, its description by the function of elevation and other factors, and optimization of model parameters (normalized coefficients of the Taylor series); and (2) estimation of rainfall in each historical year using the available data (less complete and irregular than climatic data) as well as a priori known parameters. The basic hypothesis is inter-annual stability of the model parameters. As a necessary primary stage, the Upper Jordan River (Lake Kinneret) Basin and the Yarmouk River Basin were divided, respectively, into seven and five regions, considering the specific regional relationships between the mean annual rain depth and elevation. It occurred that both basins are represented by a common system of rain–elevation curves as a single rain field where the mean annual rain increases with altitude and decreases from west to east and from north to south. For each region, the parameters of the model were optimized as a base for estimating the annual (month) rain (mean or yearly volume/depth) in each point of grid, in each basin (sub-basin) or in the whole watershed. The necessary condition is numerical presentation of the topography. Derived rain rates can serve as fundamental input data for numerical modeling of surface- and groundwater flow. This method can be applied to other areas at different temporal and spatial scales.

Governança em cenários de escassez hídrica

Water is an increasingly scarce resource. One of the most noteworthy discursive features of the last decades has been a growing awareness of water-related issues as a critically important component for regional stability. This situation helps to explain why, in many cases, water management involves political, economic, social, environmental and even military issues. But, in what intensity? This article analyzes the cases of Southern Africa and the Jordan River Basin due to their prevailing condition of water scarcity. In order to verify the role developed by the mechanisms of governance in accommodating the interests of the riparian states, the Hydropolitical Complexes Theory was applied. Inferences demonstrated a trend towards cooperation in Southern Africa that is due to the successful institutionalization of management mechanisms capable of minimizing potential for conflicts. On the other hand, in the Jordan Basin, the struggle to control water resources has been a significant factor in sustaining tension among riparian countries.

Under non-stationarity securitization contributes to uncertainty and Tragedy of the Commons

Uncertainty is a defining characteristic of hydrologic investigations, with increasing recognition of parameter, structural, measurement, and prediction uncertainty. Here we suggest that an additional form of uncertainty—(geo)political uncertainty—is locally important, but commonly neglected. We define geopolitical uncertainty in hydrology as indefiniteness of water balance processes, the relative magnitude of hydrologic fluxes, or causality as a consequence of complex international relations amongst riparians of a transboundary basin forced by internal economic, political, and nationalistic drivers (as well as interactions amongst these drivers) under a regime of non-stationary climate. We suggest that such (geo)political uncertainty has developed in the Jordan River basin as a consequence of intentionally ambiguous language in the Israel Jordan Peace Treaty, outstanding discussions regarding water allocations to the Palestinian Authority, and lobbying by the powerful agricultural sector. In the presence of economic motives requiring consumption of water these drivers promote securitization manifested as secrecy regarding water management and consumption by the upstream riparian, which given non-stationary climate opens a void of (geo)political uncertainty in which the relative importance of climate variability and change becomes indeterminate relative to changing water consumption, thereby perhaps allowing the upstream riparian to increase water consumption. The consequence of this (geo)political uncertainty for hydrologic studies is large water balance uncertainty, inability to reproduce water consumption studies due to data secrecy, and disagreement regarding the relative importance of pertinent drivers (i.e., climate versus consumption). Greater acknowledgement and awareness of (geo)political uncertainty’s impacts on hydrologic studies is needed, as are concerted efforts to reduce this uncertainty for the benefit of transparent water dialogue among riparians and knowledge-based management of common-pool resources.

Meandering and Land Use /Cover Change Detection in the Lower Jordan River (LJR), 1984-2016, Using GIS and RS

The objective of this study is to monitor and analyze the meandering, and changes in land use / land cover (LULC) caused by the large reduction of water flow of the lower Jordan River (LJR), resulting from climatic conditions, and conflict over water resources between Syria, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the upper part of the Jordan River Basin (JRB). These circumstances have led to dramatic decline in the Dead Sea level by a vertical distance of -39 m during the monitoring period. This has resulted in the scarcity of water resources, changes affecting the geomorphology of the river as well as the vegetated area and the spatial distribution of riparian vegetation in the (LJR). These changes were examined using Landsat TM, ETM, all images acquired in August 1984, 2000, and 2016, and a topographic map (TM) was used as a base map. The multi-temporal images were geometrically and radio metrically calibrated to each other and used as input for an automatic change detection procedure. The results of the interpretation showed that there was an elongation in the active channel length of about 741.8 m within the monitoring period as a result of the Dead Sea retreat, and about 2.65 km caused by meandering. The direction of the migration rates varied towards west and east, with the dominant direction towards the west and the annual average migration rate for west and east was 0.325 m, with a total lateral migration during the study period about only 17.875m in both directions west and east. River meandering has increased from 1.8 m to 2.1 m in the time period. With respect to (LULC), the difference image indicated that significant positive changes in green vegetation have occurred between 1984 and 2016; this is due to the expansion of water storage by canals, and dams in all riparian counters, with an increase in water ponds. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) showed that the riparian vegetation area increased by 36.9% during the monitoring period, indicating the stability of the valley floor. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.74.2.20917

Geomorphological response of the Lower Jordan River basin to active tectonics of the Dead Sea Transform

The Lower Jordan River (LJR) basin has been shaped on an active tectonic segment of the Dead Sea Transform (DST), the Jordan Valley Fault (JVF), which remains relatively unexplored due to its rough terrain conditions, hyper-arid climate, and location along a political border where minefields are common. The ability to detect the morphology of the valley surface by remote sensing methods provides an opportunity to follow the complex tectonic structure of the LJR basin, and the spatial and temporal geomorphic processes that have shaped the basin since its exposure in the early Holocene after the desiccation of Lake Lisan (~14.5 ky BP). In this study, we use GIS analyses and image processing to explore the relation between the geomorphology of the LJR basin and the active tectonics of the JVF. The morphometric fluvial parameters of the basin are interpreted in relation to mapped faults, geophysical gravity interpolation, and seismic data. We introduce morphometric-gravity relations that show an increasing trend of the morphometric parameters' standard deviation (STD) as a function of the gravity anomaly increase, which are consistent with stream power formulation studies and seismic measurements. Our results show that the active tectonics of the JVF is concentrated towards the basin's center and the Dead Sea Fault location, and that at the borders of the gravity highs, sinuosity, slope and width changes, together with recent seismic activity, all suggest on tectonic uplifting and active faulting in those areas.

The Effectiveness of Governance Mechanisms in Scenarios of Water Scarcity: The Cases of the Hydropolitical Complexes of Southern Africa and Jordan River Basin

<em>In many regions of the world, the multiple uses of transboundary fresh water have been a critically important component for regional stability. This situation explains why, in many cases, water management has commonly become linked to national security concerns. But, in what intensity? In search for answers, we analyze the cases of Southern Africa and the Jordan River Basin due to their prevailing condition of hydrological stress. To verify the role played by governance mechanisms in accommodating the interests of riparian states, the Hydropolitical Complexes model was applied in a comparative perspective. Our findings suggest a trend towards cooperation in Southern Africa due to the successful institutionalization of management mechanisms capable of minimizing potential conflicts. In the Jordan Basin, however, the struggle for control of water resources has been a paramount feature in the maintenance of a tense and resilient non-cooperative framework among riparian countries.</em>

Water scarcity, data scarcity and the Budyko curve—An application in the Lower Jordan River Basin

Study regionLower Jordan River Basin, Eastern Mediterranean Study focusWater scarcity and data scarcity are two of the main challenges for water management in the study region, therefore, all possible information should be extracted from existing data. In this context, the Budyko framework offers possibilities not yet sufficiently explored for evaluating the water-energy balance and estimating water availabilities. In this study, we applied a parametric Budyko type equation to the Lower Jordan River basin and compared data from global products, output of the hydrological model TRAIN-ZIN as well as values from literature. The curve shape parameters of the Budyko type curve fitted on different temporal and spatial scales were used to estimate renewable water resources with publicly available data for three subbasins. New hydrological insights for the regionThe adjusted Budyko curves illustrate the influence of non-climatic factors such as vegetation or soil storage on the water-energy balance and a related relatively low efficiency of evapotranspiration, despite a high evaporative demand. Renewable water resources were estimated as 25 to 30% of precipitation in average in most cases and were more strongly affected by inter-annual variabilities than by the variance between the different derived Budyko curves.

A main driver or an intermediate variable? Climate change, water and security in the Middle East

The nexus between climate change and violent conflict is at the center of intensifying political and academic debate. Yet research on the extent and strength of this relationship remains inconclusive and much of the literature is largely empirical, lacking a sufficient theoretical underpinning. This study advances a conceptual framework linking climate change induced droughts and conflict, in potentially iterative relations. The framework is applied to two case studies displaying different responses to an extreme drought tentatively linked with climate change. To this end, we analyze the effect of the 2007–10 drought that afflicted the Middle East on the Euphrates and the lower Jordan River basins. While in the Euphrates basin the 2007–10 drought was followed by the outbreak of large-scale violent conflict in Syria which spilled over to Iraq, conflicts did not occur in the more water stressed Jordan River basin despite the tensions between the riparian countries. Using multiple sources the main factors that affected the responses to the drought in the two basins are identified and analyzed comparatively. The results show that the behavior of upper riparian countries and states' institutional and economic structures constitute critical factors affecting the likelihood of conflict. Most importantly, conflicts evolved only when fundamental factors, particularly adaptive capacity, have been compromised. Thus, from a theoretical perspective, we find that climate change is an intermediate variable, and should be analyzed as such, rather than as a major driver of conflict.

Graph Model Conflict Resolution Approach for Jordan River Basin Dispute

Graph Model Conflict Resolution Approach for Jordan River Basin Dispute

Konflikti oko vodnih resursa na Bliskom Istoku

This paper examines the impact of tensions over the exploitation of water on the emergence of internal and international conflicts in the Middle East. The deficit of this resource and the unilateral actions of states in water resources management are one of the main causes of the conflict between the countries in the Tigris and Euphrates basins and the Jordan River Basin. Conflicts over water can be interstate, between countries that share a river basin, and intrastate, between different groups or users. In the Middle East there is a special type of conflicts between non-state actors that confront several states simultaneously, and they use water as a significant weapon in a conflict. Thus, water conditions the transformation of conflicts in this area, since it represents one of the objectives of a conflict, and also the used means at the same time. .