Joining NATO Research Articles

Bottom‐up foreign policy? Finland, NATO and public opinion

AbstractFinland's decision to apply for membership in NATO is a case of bottom‐up driven foreign policy. Public opinion had been rather stable for more than 25 years in the NATO issue with less than 30 per cent of the people supporting Finland's membership in NATO but almost overnight during the week when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a majority of Finns were in favour of it. Only after that shift in public opinion did the decision‐makers support the idea of joining NATO. How was the bottom‐up driven change possible? First, the resistance to NATO membership in Finland was common but not deep. Second, in the run‐up to the war, Russia had demanded that NATO put a stop to its open door policy not only with regard to Ukraine but also for Finland. Third, Russia's unprovoked war on Ukraine constituted a particular frame in Finland, because the 1939 Winter War analogy was a key part of the collective memory. Finally, due to a strong tradition of national consensus in foreign and security policy, the shift in the public opinion became overwhelming: when the tide had turned, only very few resisted. In sum, four factors enabled the public opinion change: a rational basis for opinion change, a sense of urgency, an emotional push and the consensus effect. Although public opinion is often seen as stabilising and retardant force particularly in foreign and security policy, it can also be a driver for change when suitable conditions such as those in Finland exist.

რუსეთ-უკრაინის ურთიერთობა და პერსპექტივები

The article is dedicated to the Russian-Ukrainian relations, that finds its roots from the deep historical past and issues number of important aspects of these relations. Russia views Ukraine as a part of its own strategical objective, which does not give the ability to the latter to form itself as an independent and sovereign nation. The key issue in the article is dedicated to the western role and its importance, which brings the occurring Russian-Ukrainian crisis on the global scale. In the article, main reasons of the escalation of RussianUkrainian relations are factors, such as Ukrainian aspiration of joining NATO and the general integration process in the European Union, as well as the asymmetrical attitude between the two nations including Russian perception of Ukraine as underdeveloped and failed state. The main reason of these intensified relations is the fear of insecurity by the Russian Federation, which finds its roots from its loss of influence on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the article also stipulates such a formidable conception as the theory of mutual dependance and the balance of power. In the section of above-mentioned theories is analyzed not only Russian-Ukrainian relations but objectives and missions of other nations with the state-of-interest as well. Research proves that the regulation of current crisis between the Russian Federation and Ukraine is possible in case of declaring Ukraine as the neutral state, which can become a possibility after the governmental changes in Ukraine.

George F. Kennan and Hungary: A Cold War Visionary and a “remarkable people with rich civilizational qualities”

Abstract Although George F. Kennan hardly needs an introduction, this article revisits his career. He was the “father” of the containment doctrine, even if he did not accept that title because he believed the successive American governments debauched his murky idea about how to oppose the Soviet Union. Many things are known about Kennan—both his professional and private life—but some small additions are still missing. This essay investigates his relations with, and ideas about Hungary, which so far have earned passing mentions at best. This is not surprising because Hungary rarely became a central issue during the Cold War—with 1956 as an obvious exception—so scholars focused mainly on Kennan, the Russian expert and cold warrior. Still, occasionally Hungary received Kennan’s attention throughout his long career: he made observations and took notes on Hungary, Hungarian foreign policy, and Hungarians as early as the eve of World War II, and he continued to do so as late as Hungary’s joining NATO at the end of the 1990s. These were sometimes indirect assumptions, long-distance observations, or the results of on-site experience. It is interesting to see how the famously realist Kennan approached Hungary and the Hungarian questions throughout more than half a century. His relationship with either Hungary or Hungarians, however, has never been within the scope of an academic study, so this article serves as the basis for possible future endeavors into that direction. By introducing Kennan’s episodic views and impressions regarding Hungary in the larger part of the twentieth century, the article fills a small but important gap in the growing field of the history of American–Hungarian relations and adds to the portrait of Kennan. (ZP)

The Budapest memorandum: lessons and unfulfilled expectations on Ukraine’s path to joining NATO

The Budapest Memorandum for Ukraine (the official name is the Memorandum on Security Guarantees in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) was the result of negotiations on the disposal of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, its nuclear weapons were deployed or stored in four of the fifteen successor states: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. This raised important questions of security and protection, as well as command and control; and Moscow and Washington agreed that Russia should be the sole nuclear successor to the Soviet Union. The United States recognized that it would have to offer security guarantees to Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to persuade them to hand over their Soviet-made nuclear weapons to Russia and join the NPT as non-nuclear-weapon states. In coordination with London and Moscow, Washington drew up a package of security guarantees. These assurances were set out in the Budapest memorandums regarding Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. France and China – the other nuclear-weapon states recognized by the NPT—have offered their own guarantees unilaterally.
 The Budapest Memorandum on Ukraine confirmed the obligation to respect the independence, sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine (according to the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) of 1975); to refrain from the threat of force or its use against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, as well as from any use of weapons against Ukraine, except in cases of self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations; and refrain from economic coercion against Ukraine in accordance with the Final Act of the CSCE. The memorandum also reiterated the positive and negative security guarantees provided to all non-nuclear-weapon state parties to the NPT.
 This scientific article is devoted to the study of the significance of the Budapest Memorandum for Ukraine and its influence on the possibility of the country joining NATO. The historical context of the conclusion of the memorandum is studied, the key obligations are determined and the consequences of their violation are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the current security situation in Ukraine, in particular due to the annexation of Crimea and the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine. The article examines the prospects of Ukraine’s membership in NATO and suggests ways to resolve unfulfilled expectations and restore the international community’s trust in the commitments made within the framework of the memorandum.

The impact of regional and international variables on the Russian-Ukrainian war 2022

The Russian-Ukrainian war was not a momentary and instantaneous result, but rather goes back to historical roots and military, economic, and political causes and motives. Relations that historically extend over hundreds of years have witnessed many tensions and lulls at different points in time. Perhaps the most prominent stages of lulls are the relations that existed during the days of the Cold War between the United States and the Union. The Soviet Union had on its territory the largest nuclear arsenal of the Soviet Union when it was part of it. However, this calm in relations did not last long. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine quickly sought to join NATO. This was considered by Russia to be a return to the containment policy pursued by the United States during that period, and it repeatedly stated that Ukrainian joining NATO represented a threat to its vital and national security.The war affected the reality of the world in general and Europe in particular. The world today operates in a very interconnected manner. Russia and Ukraine, the largest food exporters in the world, were negatively affected by the war. Which led to the European decision being politically dispersed, militarily tense, and economically damaged.As a result, the above-mentioned reasons led to war, and since war often affects the security, safety, and interests of surrounding and even distant regions; The positions of countries regarding the war varied as a result of different points of view, especially between those that insinuate Russia’s right to maintain its security from NATO and the United States’ encirclement of it. These countries often seek in one way or another to change the form of the existing international order, such as China, and on the other hand, those countries Which tends to maintain the existing international system in its current form, such as the United States of America. Moreover, the positions of some countries have fluctuated as a result of their exposure to economic pressure due to their close economic relations with Russia on the one hand, and political pressure from the United States on the other hand.

Change in the Baltic Sea region: geopolitics, identity, and the Russian negative integration factor

ABSTRACT Russian political behaviour generated geopolitical and normative impetus for policy, institutional, and attitudinal change in other Baltic Sea Region (BSR) countries. Notable manifestations include Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Denmark ending its CSDP opt out, and revision of German diplomatic posture. These developments affirmed the extant Russia-scepticism of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Ukraine became an informal member of a region whose centre of political gravity moved eastwards as its identity is recast.

Finland’s approaches to joining NATO

For the region of Northern Europe the beginning of 2022 was marked by an important event — the application of Finland and Sweden for membership in the NATO military alliance. For both countries the move signified the end of decades of the neutrality policy, and the North Atlantic Alliance expansion would be relatively significant for the first time since 2009. One of the main features of Finland’s and Sweden’s process of joining NATO was the desire of both countries’ administrations to achieve the Alliance membership simultaneously. Due to certain difficulties that had risen on the international level and prevented Sweden from becoming a member of the organization swiftly, the Finnish administration made the ultimate decision to join NATO independently from Sweden. The decision was connected with the abandonment of the principle of “special relations” between Sweden and Finland. The approval of the NATO membership bill during its ratification in the Finnish parliament was not unanimous. Several lawmakers spoke out against the country’s integration with NATO. This and other factors testify to the controversial attitude to NATO in the Finnish society. “The Kurdish issue” was among the important aspects of Finland’s North Atlantic Alliance joining process. Prior to 2022 Finland along with Sweden adhered to the position of supporting various Kurdish groups that were recognized in Turkey as terrorist organizations. Finland also took in a lot of Kurdish refugees and provided political asylum to some of them. The Turkish authorities were dissatisfied with those actions hence in May 2022 Turkey blocked the NATO membership application of the Finnish republic. “The Kurdish issue” was not fully resolved, but the sides managed to reach a compromise.

OVERCOMING THE INFLUENCE OF RUSSIAN INFORMATION AND PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS ON THE FORMATION OF A NEGATIVE PERCEPTION OF NATO AMONG THE POPULATION OF UKRAINE

In this study, the Russian information and subversive activity for many years in Ukraine was analyzed, the purpose of which was and is the formation of a negative perception among the population of the opinion regarding Ukraine's membership in NATO. The main process of implementation of these information campaigns, as well as psychological methods of influence on different segments of the population, were followed. Analyzing the facts of the Russian information war against Ukraine, after gaining independence in 1991, it can be observed that all subversive tasks, such as informational, economic, energy, and since 2014, the military, had the ultimate goal of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has opened up new challenges for us in detecting Russian IPSO. The ongoing war for the free future of Ukraine, which cannot be realized in the established geopolitical realities without joining NATO, presents us with the task of quickly reacting and countering information attacks, which, as observations show, have moved to a more sophisticated level, which in the conditions of a full-scale war are the same as dangerous as massive rocket fire. Taking into account all the factors that affect the issue of this topic, we will try to consider in detail each period of information attacks starting with Ukraine's independence, and we will also pay special attention to the work of the Russian IPSO from February 24, 2022. The main goals of this study are to comprehensively disclose the facts of the activities of the Russian units of information and psychological special operations with the aim of comprehensively distorting reality, and forming a false opinion among the population regarding relations between Ukraine and NATO. The main topic of Russian propaganda before a full-scale invasion was the thesis about the so-called «NATO on the doorstep», that the allegedly aggressive bloc has approached the borders of the Russian, and from day to day it must attack, using Ukraine, which is not yet a member of the alliance, as a springboard for subsequent «aggression». After the direct attack, the Russian IPSO began to develop a narrative about «cowardly NATO», that the alliance was afraid and would never openly enter the war on the side of Ukraine, and also forming a false opinion among the population of Ukraine that it did not need such an alliance, but that it was «better» to accept non-aligned status and illusory security guarantees, which, as reality shows, are largely worthless. The ultimate goal of this study is to prove that there is no alternative for Ukraine to join NATO, as the only guarantee of existence as an independent state.

Military alliance and international trade: Evidence from NATO enlargement

AbstractThis paper exploits the three eastward expansions of NATO after the Cold War as a quasi‐natural experiment to investigate the relationship between military alliance and trade. To identify the impact of alliance membership on trade, we adopt the difference‐in‐differences method to estimate a gravity model with global bilateral trade data from 1995 to 2015. The results show that joining NATO has a positive effect on new member countries' exports, as well as an enhancing effect on both imports and exports between old and new members. Further analysis of subdivided data reveals that formal alliance between old and new members boosts bilateral trade of security‐sensitive products, facilitates specialisation and helps mitigate trade disputes, suggesting that deepening of mutual strategic trust is a possible channel of influence.

Generation-based position taking: Unpacking Finland’s decision to join NATO

Scholars have identified the important roles personal characteristics — such as religion, gender, and race — play in influencing policymakers' position-taking behavior. One important yet overlooked personal characteristic is generation. This personal characteristic is not only influencing individual policymakers’ position-taking behavior; it is also changing some important political realities across Europe. An illustrative example of these changes is Finland's decision to join NATO. Based on documentary analyses of parliamentary speeches and personal interviews with Finnish officials, this article demonstrates that Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine revealed already established, generation-based cleavages among MPs whose parties had long opposed the prospect of joining NATO. The speeches also reveal a dynamic and evolving orientation to the Baltic states among an emerging political cohort of Finnish MPs, who have been socialized in a fully EU-integrated Finland.

Public opinion about Finland joining NATO: analysing Twitter posts by performing natural language processing

ABSTRACT The announcement of Finland’s decision to join NATO in May 2022 has provoked many public discussions and debates both inside and outside Finland. The aim of this study is to process natural language in Twitter data collected between 12 May and 3 April 2023 and to analyse the public sentiment on Finland’s decision to join NATO. A total of 28,993 tweets were collected and analysed using the VADER algorithm for sentiment analysis and the LDA algorithm for topic modelling. The results show that overall sentiment towards Finland’s NATO membership was mostly positive. Topic modelling revealed that the most prevalent topics of the tweets were related to Finland’s alliances, concerns, and general opinions of the NATO membership. The results suggest that the public discussion on Twitter focuses on the potential benefits and risks of Finland’s decision to join NATO, especially considering the recent tensions with Russia. The study provides insights into public opinion about Finland’s NATO membership and highlights the potential of natural language processing techniques for the analysis of social media data. These findings could help in further policy discussions about Finland joining NATO and provide a basis for further research into public opinion on NATO and other international organizations.

The Russia-Ukraine war: an analysis of the geopolitical roots and the global dynamics

Russian deployment of troops on the Ukrainian border is a clear threat of war, which the US-led Western block perceives truly. This research aims to analyse Russia's motives for opposing Ukraine. Europe's geopolitical and geo-economic situation needs serious attention to be studied systematically. A qualitative fact-based approach is used, and a descriptive analysis has been done for this research. The current security dynamics amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict have jeopardised the security structure of the entire European region. All such development is no doubt a threat to the security of Europe. One of the immediate reasons Russia deployed its troops on Ukraine's border was to stop Ukraine from joining NATO, for which Russia had threatened both Ukraine and the US-led Western block. As the Ukraine crisis unfolds, geopolitical shifts have pushed Russia and China closer together. Consequently, this closeness between China and Russia is seen as alarming in the West. Further, the crises have highlighted differences within the Western alliance, like no consensus, as they do not agree on how to respond to this worst situation. It has further intensified the polarisation of the East and the West and has raised tensions.

On the issue of national security: assessment of Finland’s mobilization experience in connection with joining NATO

The mobilization readiness of the state and the effective and sufficient measures preceding it for planning mobilization training at all levels of government, in the sectoral context of the Russian economy, Russian society and an individual citizen in modern foreign policy conditions, conditions of foreign economic sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation from many, primarily Western European countries and the United States and the conduct of a special military operation in Ukraine are becoming the most important a factor of national security. The modern geopolitical process is also characterized by an increasingly aggressive policy of the NATO military bloc, which is rapidly moving towards the borders of the Russian Federation, which raises the urgency of the problems of vulnerability and the real creation of an unstable situation on Russia’s western borders. Russian scientists have repeatedly noted in their publications the high mobilization efficiency of the Russian state in crucial historical periods of its development, the ability to mobilize society and citizens of the country. Mobilization in emergency circumstances was a common thing in the Russian national tradition. However, today the Russian Federation is once again facing real threats to its statehood and national security. Practical measures in the system of mobilization planning and mobilization, which are solved daily at all levels of government and public administration, local self-government, enterprises and organizations of the industrial complex of the country need a deeper and more thorough analysis, reflection, development of measures and effective solutions in order to improve mobilization planning.

Garantizar la seguridad nacional en condiciones de ley marcial y estado de emergencia : análisis teórico y jurídico de la experiencia extranjera

This article examines, and thoroughly analyzes, the key elements of the current state of national security processes in Ukraine. Also, ways of possible improvement of the state of ensuring the national security of Ukraine in the modern conditions of the active operation of the martial law regime are considered. It is noted that different countries of the world, at their own discretion, tend to interpret the essence and important elements of national security that exist in the world today. In addition, countries have different opportunities to take real action in relation to reforming the situation with their national security. The article focuses on the fact that truly high-quality and dynamic development of the sphere of proper provision of national security occurs in the state only when it is under threat (its state sovereignty, territorial integrity, or other important interests). The example of Israel, the United States and some other countries is not the only one where only after the emergence of this or that danger, the mechanisms and tools to overcome it begin to work in practice. Also, the importance of achieving Ukraine’s full membership in the NATO military and political alliance was emphasized. After all, this military and political alliance, which unites about three dozen sovereign states, the majority of which are true liberal democracies with real rule of law and a transparent and effective state system, is recognized as the best example of such a defense alliance in history of humanity and is a good association of states close to Ukraine in spirit. It is indicated that after repelling the Russian invasion, Ukraine should focus all efforts on joining NATO.

Parliamentary elections in Finland 2023

The article analyzes results of the elections to the Finnish parliament, which took place on April 2, 2023, and possible variants of parliamentary unions. A paradoxical situation is outlined when, due to the so-called tactical voting, there was an outflow of votes from small parties to the leading trio, but due to impossibility of cooperation between Social Democrats and True Finns and lack of constructive dialogue between NCP and SPDF, the role of some small parties (primarily the Swedish People's Party) in formation of a stable majority government has dramatically increased. Finland, that has just abruptly reversed its foreign policy course (abandoning the neutrality and joining NATO), now risks entering the zone of internal instability.

The Grand Strategy of President Ilham Aliyev as the Foreign Policy Foundation of Azerbaijan’s Victory in the Second Karabakh War

The growing geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Black Sea basin region and the role of Azerbaijan as an undisputed regional leader in this space appear to be an urgent trend in international relations. Azerbaijan is not a member of either NATO or the CSTO, fighting for leadership in this region. But at the same time, Azerbaijan is successfully developing bilateral and multilateral relations with the participating states of these military-political alliances. Armenia, as a member of the CSTO, and Georgia, which has officially included the goal of joining NATO in the Basic Laws of their country, to a certain extent, can produce a degree of inter-bloc competition to solve their own problems. Azerbaijan can objectively reduce the risks of geopolitical tension in the region by promoting a peaceful cooperation agenda through inter-block communication. Under the leadership of the President of Azerbaijan, Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan was the first in the post-Soviet space to resolve an interstate conflict within the framework of international law. Systemic and structural-functional methods are used in the geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic analysis of the role of Azerbaijan in the studied region, the development and implementation of the Grand Strategy of President Ilham Aliyev and the main directions of national geoengineering at the present stage of development of Azerbaijan. The comparative method is used to analyse the main trends in international relations based on the study of international, international legal, and foreign documents and materials.

Alternative models" of Ukraine joining NATO in the modern European political system and the complexity of their implementation

Alternative models" of Ukraine joining NATO in the modern European political system and the complexity of their implementation

The New Momentum of Serbia’s Self-Proclaimed Military Neutrality with Finland and Sweden Joining NATO

The New Momentum of Serbia’s Self-Proclaimed Military Neutrality with Finland and Sweden Joining NATO

War in Ukraine: A power play between Democracy and Authoritarianism

This article provides an analytical discussion of the crisis of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism in the context of the Russia-Ukraine War. Some of the fundamental aspects of the post-Cold War international order are addressed in this respect, including emerging powers, anti-Westernism, authoritarianism, and new threats in international relations. It is argued that the post-Cold War period brought both stability and instability to the global world order. On the one hand, the United States' victory in the ideological conflict between the East and the West led to the dominance of the Western system and its influence in the Middle East and Central Eastern European region with the call for democracy. On the other hand, the growing intervention of the US in intra-state disputes through the deployment of NATO has become a major concern to Russia and many other nations along the eastern border. This intensified anti-Western sentiment in emerging countries, with the rise of many Authoritarian governments. Many of the conflicts that the world has witnessed since the end of the Cold War are the result of such anti-Western feelings. This resulted at the beginning of a new era of war and conflict on a global scale. Russia's war in Ukraine is one of the recent examples. Russia is attempting to maintain its sphere of influence to avoid joining NATO and the West, regardless of the cost or repercussions of the war. As a result of these conflicts between great powers, several new powers emerged, resulting in a multi-polar world order. Today, it is emphasized that the ability and willingness of great powers to cooperate in addressing these dangers will determine the course of the world.

SYNTHESIS OF THREATS AND RISKS OF CYBER SECURITY OF MONTENEGRO - THE VULNERABILITY ASPECT OF INFORMATION COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE

That there are no untouchables and that cyber threats are entering Montenegro through the big doors, is indicated by the hacker attack on the Government of Montenegro. Fortunately, the hackers did not get hold of confidential data, but their act itself caused a serious act of endangering state security, especially because they breached the system that is networked with all state bodies. It was not the first time in 2022 that hackers broke into Government IC systems and state and private companies and organizations. Experts from the IT sector have been warning about the vulnerability of the system for a long time, but not loudly enough to be taken seriously. Let’s also mention the attack on Montenegro on the eve of joining NATO, where Montenegro was under increased cyber attacks, and the Ministry of Defense says that it is similar today.Cyber is no longer the world of gamers and geeks, it is increasingly becoming a prefix for terrorism, crime, and other types of threats (Kazerić 2017). Internet trade and the use of electronic services such as e-government are also on the rise. To the global trend, almost everything that was only tangible and materialized in the real world is moving to the virtual community. This brings with it many advantages, but also disadvantages, and one of them is certainly the vulnerability of critical information and communication infrastructure and the danger of cyber attacks. In such circumstances, the issue of security partially shifts the focus to cyber, that is, cyber security. Precisely for this reason, it is necessary to take a critical look at the existing information and communication infrastructure and analyze the existing threats and risks brought by the modern, cybernetic age. The synthesis of threats and risks is necessary so that we can adequately face them and predict the difficulties that may come our way, which could have significant consequences for national security.